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    Coronavirus: The Solution Is Becoming Clear

    We are starting to win the war for data on covid-19
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, March 29, 2020, 5:32 PM

The world has been fighting covid-19 long enough that we are beginning to arrive at some constructive conclusions:

Part of the intense infectiousness of this virus is due to its long asymptomatic phase, where hosts feel fine but are shedding contagious particles. Increased testing is now showing that the majority of folks testing positive don’t realize they’re sick.

Research is showing that the recommended social distance of two meters (6.8 feet) is inadequate to protect against airborne particles. Four times that amount is more likely — reinforcing the effectiveness of both social isolating tactics (like sheltering at home) and wearing masks.

Peak Prosperity has been loudly banging the #Masks4ALL drum of late, and every day more studies emerge showing it’s one of the cheapest and most effective social responses to slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

In addition, while standard surgical/homemade (non-N95) masks do not filter out all virus particles, they do dramatically limit their spread, both in the air and on surfaces.

This is important because this reduces the viral load someone is exposed to. Data is showing that if you receive a lower viral load, if you get sick with the virus, your case is likely to be more mild and short-lived.

We are starting to win the war for data on covid-19 and this is leading to smarter practices that will flatten the curve, reduce deaths and get folks back to work.

Finally, some encouraging news.

And for the many of us remaining under lockdown, here are some helpful recent resources we’ve released. Review them when you can:

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127 Comments

  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 6:04pm

    #1

    Jim H

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    Around minute 6, Trump talked today about FDA approval for the sterilization of masks. Score one for PP.com!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pej7vM4mvjE

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 6:14pm

    #2
    VegasJim

    VegasJim

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    Has anyone acutally done the Shake and Bake mask in the oven?

    Has anyone acutally done the Shake and Bake mask in the oven?

    How did it go?  I am curious about the effect it has on the elasticity of the bands and if they should be removed?

    I think I might try it myself, if I can round up a paper bag...

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 6:31pm

    #3

    NZSailor

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    Masks with valves?

    First- Thank you for the fantastic videos, coverage and discussions by everyone here at PP.  Now more than ever its a a daily read/watch with a great range of information.

    Quick question- The video today showed a photo of a mask with a valve.   Because mask use is both to prevent spread and infection shouldn't we be using masks without valves?  Just trying to get up to speed on mask technology....

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 6:38pm

    wendyc2013

    wendyc2013

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    I haven't yet

    I haven't tried it yet.  If you do, please let us know how it went.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 6:41pm

    Jim H

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    Baking in the age of Covid-19

    Funny you should ask Vegas... I just baked my first batch today.  None were of the valve type.. we do have these also but consider them somewhat anti-social.  We may eventually need to use them.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 6:46pm

    #6
    james kd6iwd@gmail.com

    james [email protected]

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    Sterilizing n95 masks

    I just ordered a double boiler pan set for 20 bucks on ebay. This will allow me to heat a n95 mask to 200 degrees fahrenheit for mask sterilization. I should be able to sterilize several masks every 30 minutes, assuming a 30 minute sterilization time at 200 degrees. This is so easy and available to people who do not have a oven to use as well.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:02pm

    #7
    Tommy Lee

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    Good response to the "donate" mantra?

    Everyone seems to jump immediately to "donate your N95 masks" whenever the topic comes up and you are perceived to have masks and/or seen wearing one in public.

    Can you recommend some good responses to this?

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:06pm

    #8
    alanrgreenland

    alanrgreenland

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    We are not baking masks, just letting them sit

     

    We are leaving our masks in a paper bag in the car.  Being very careful when taking them off (and using a wipe immediately, then washing hands as soon as we get home). We are going out less than once a week, so figure any virus on the masks will be dead by the next time we use them again.  (And we have an extra set of masks, if needed, so we can have two sets going; could go out twice per week.  So far those are still in their packages.)  We have enough food, so are staying hunkered for now.  The worst is still to come, here in the Chicago area (and elsewhere, I'm afraid).  Be well, everybody.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:09pm

    alanrgreenland

    alanrgreenland

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    "My mask protects you and me"

    Thinking about writing this on a bandanna we may wear over our masks (next time).  That is the correct response, IMO.

     

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:18pm

    #10

    dtrammel

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    I've Run Several Tests

    I haven’t tried it yet.  If you do, please let us know how it went.

    I've run several of the same masks (with values) thru the oven. I've not seen either plastic not elastic band visible damage. I did though put a cooking thermometer in there first. My oven was running just a little hot (around 190).

    I would stress use paper bags not plastic. LOL, turns out ziplock bags do not like heat.

    I did do a temp test on my crock pot to see if I could put it at the door and use it. Unfortunately the low temp was around 120F and the high temp around 240F.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:23pm

    Snow Eater

    Snow Eater

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    Good response to the "donate" mantra?

    'No one wants my used mask".

    Pretend you don't have any others.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:25pm

    #12
    Snow Eater

    Snow Eater

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    Snow Eater said:

    Yes our next puzzle should be how to effectively block the exhaust valve on N95 mask.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:28pm

    supersignman

    supersignman

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    3M "Cool Flow" mask problem

    I was wondering the same thing about masks with valves to allow air to escape without being filtered. It seems logical that this would not prevent transmission of the virus from an asymptomatic person... it would only keep the wearer safe from becoming infected.  I have some of those masks and was wondering if we could just tape over the valve to block it off and force air through the filter?

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:32pm

    #14
    VegasJim

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    Shake and Bake test #1 with a 3M 8511 N95 Cool flow mask

    I baked a 3M #8511 N95 Cool flow mask at 180 degrees for 30 minutes (valve side up on a paper towel on a cookie sheet).  Mask seems unaffected by the process and is in very good condition.  Both elastic straps and valve work great.  I still get a good seal.  I will do another test with the wife's mask shortly.

    Edit to add:  Wife's mask did great as well (Whew!)

    Thanks,

    Jim

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:41pm

    #15

    dtrammel

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    Tape on the inside

    The value is a small disc of rubber over the hole with a center pin. You could put a small square of tape over the inside of the value and block it.

    I haven't been out in about 10 days to anywhere that I would need to wear a N95 mask. This morning I cleaned at my pet shelter, then decided to go to one of the upscale grocery stores about 15 minutes away. Wore a mask and gloves, with a set of old industrial glasses with sideshields rather than goggles.

    I didn't see any "looks" at me for wearing it. I did see several other people with surgical masks, and a few with bandanas. One of the check out clerks was wearing a dust mask. One person actually had a half mask with canister filters.

    I think for most people its sinking in that they have to face this without masks and it frightens them. Some are going to get angry but most will just try the best they can.

    I've donated about 50 masks to the volunteers at my pet shelter to keep them on the job, along with getting thirty boxes (100ea) of gloves for them to take.

    I've been trying to find elastic for DIY masks but all the local fabric stores are out. Some people are cannibalizing fitted sheets and old bathing suits.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:44pm

    rabbitami

    rabbitami

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    Responses to Donate Mask Mantra

    "Now that they have discovered you can be asymptomatic with the cornavirus it only makes sense that we should be wearing masks.  Even handmake ones and kerchiefs. "  Adding the kerchief lets them know that anyone could be doing it even without a special type of mask they might not be able to get.  Show them you are concerned for them not wearing a mask.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:50pm

    michaelsdirenzo

    michaelsdirenzo

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    Baking Masks Works Great

    I'm happy to see everyone else has got the same idea.

    I've been baking mine at 170F for 30mins (along with eye protection), and the elastic is fine so far. I don't put them in a bag, I use a pizza stone.

    Study I looked at said that anything above 160F will work.

    JUST REMEMBER TO PULL THE PPE OUT OF THE OVEN WHEN DONE

    Molten plastic does not belong there.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:54pm

    Jim H

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    LOL Michael...

    I just had to laugh about your using a pizza stone ... I'll bet you will be thinking about pizza next time you use those masks given the subtle, crusty aroma : )

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 8:16pm

    #19

    dtrammel

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    Remember, that used masks are contaminated

    Paper bags allow you to safely store used and contaminated masks until you have a chance to cook them. If you have a spot at your door you can keep them there until you get 3-4 and do them at one time.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 8:21pm

    #20
    bhilder

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    Car Travel Caution

    I was following a car, the car had smoker passengers.  I could very distinctly notice the products they were smoking.   Which suggests that the exhaust cabin air of a car could contain viral particles.   Though unlikely, the air you breathe in your car could contain virus particles from the preceding vehicles.   Be cautious, and wear your mask in your car as well.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 8:22pm

    FooBarr

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    Response to criticism for not donating your mask....

    I'll just tell folks the dirty mask on my face is what I found out in my work shop hanging next to my grinder.  Then I'll tell them to get the hell out my personal 4-meter safe space....follow up with a couple of fake raspy coughs.....

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 8:36pm

    #22
    nordicjack

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    mask sanitization

    I just would recommend throwing the thing in the sun for several hours.   At this time of year in southern part of US we can see 130 inside a car easily.. that will do it too.  Hot Car (90 min ) can work well for sterilizing clothing, masks, groceries ( non refrigerated ) and other items such as phones.

    Other than this i recommend the 9 day quarantine.. rather than screwing around with oven heating and UV- C , ozone etc.   Do the later , if you dont have the time, or good sun light.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 8:39pm

    #23
    nordicjack

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    regarding criticism for not donating mask

    I ve have a boatload of metal grindings in my shop.   I could just dirty up my mask a bit.  of course you could find some soot in your fireplace or grill that would work well too. Put some coffee stains and blood stains ( or ketchup ) for good measure..

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 8:48pm

    #24
    gyurash

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    Microwaves unlikely to sterilize

    Your microwave oven may have a glass door so you can see your food go round and round, (a technique to try and more evenly heat food). Behind the glass is a metal screen with lots of little holes in it. The metal is what keeps the microwaves from coming through the glass and cooking you too. The microwaves can’t get through the screen because the wavelength of these microwaves are larger than the holes. I have had the unfortunate experience of discovering Sugar Ants in the microwave while my food was cooking. Water came to a boil. The ants where oblivious and unharmed, although they stayed away from the hot food.

    I submit that viruses are somewhat smaller than ants, so microwaves will do nothing to them.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 8:51pm

    #25
    timot78

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    UV-C light minimum dosage to kill the virus

    Chris,

    Here is some data regarding UV-C light irradiation and its germicidal effect.

    (typical UV-C wavelength = 254 nm, or 0.254 micron).

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-21058-w

    or here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3292282/

    An example taken from the first article shows minimum dosage of 2 mJ/cm^2 to effectively kill the virus.

    It is not straightforward to translate the mJ/cm^2 into Wattage.

    ( UV Dose is the product of UV light intensity and time Dose is sometimes referred to as fluence

    DOSE = INTENSITY x TIME= millijoules/(sec)(cm2) x time= mJ/cm2

    NOTE: 10 J/m2 = 1 mJ/cm2   )

     

    How does that translate to the light source Wattage?  My example:  2 bulbs, total P = 16 W, radiation area  A = 1 m^2.  (interior of the box, which I painted with copper paint for max.  reflectivity at short UV wavelength).

    16 W = 16 J/s.

    A= 1 m^2.

    Dosage per second:   16 J/m^2 = 1.600 microWsec/cm^2 = 1.6 mJ/cm^2.

    So, my light source should be killing germs in 1.5 seconds.   I use it in the box for 300 seconds (5 mins).

    Lets keep in mind that there is a need for eye protection at these short wavelengths (invisible radiation @ 254 nm).

    Example taken from Amazon (see goggles type #, but, basically any safety plastic glasses should do – and for additional safety I would wear plastic sunglasses as well on top -like in strong sunlight).  Plastic is an important word here, because glass might be transmissive at UV!).

     

    A good UVC light source can be bought from ebay , like here:  https://www.ebay.com/itm/UV-LIGHT-Germicidal-for-ac-HVAC-ultravaiolet-dual-lamp-duct-air-cleaner-DEAL/282721315297?hash=item41d380e9e1:g:jQoAAOxylpNTUWo2:sc:USPSPriority!07094!US!-1

     

    Hope this helps.

     

    -Peter

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 8:56pm

    #26
    nordicjack

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    I never thought about the masks with check valves

    But, good point. these are designed to protect the wearer not the others surrounding.. Its a high pressure solution for the wearer.  but it would expel infection to those around them.   This is not a good mask to wear to protect spread from the wearer.  ( this should be noted - on its use  )

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:03pm

    #27
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

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    no way

    There is no way we can have enough mask for every body plus have what the health care industry needs. In six months there just to much need ,this is jut bad.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:08pm

    #28

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Have You All Noticed? Chris, Adam?

    Many, Many of us are:

    • Starting to mourn the loss of our normal
    • Just weary!
    • A little short tempered
    • A little anxious about lots of things, job, money, business, retirement, getting sick, and on and on
    • Feeling  - lots of feelings but we push them away thinking so many people have it worse than me I should’t feel what I feel.  And we suppress our feelings
    • Concentrating on details, lots of details

    Chris and Adam wrote the book “Prosper”.  What would a conversation about coping with the extraordinary changes in our life sound like. What can help us to refocus? Remember whats important.

    Vulnerability is the birthplace of courage.  People, I think are feeling vulnerable.  I invite Chris and Adam to lead us in a conversation on prospering mentally, physically, spiritually in the shadow of one of the greatest challenges of our lifetime.

    I for one, am weary.  Anyone else?  Would love to refocus, share a change of perspective.  If I am thinking these thoughts, and feeling these feelings then there are at least a few others that are as well.

    Hoping you will consider my idea. Thoughts from anyone else??

    Thank you.

    AKGrannyWGrit

     

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:12pm

    #29

    thatchmo

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    virus mobility?

    So, let's just say I'm an idiot.  I open the contaminated doorhandle at the local McDonalds, then scratch my cheek (much like a well-known-around-these-parts video star...he he..).  How does that virus get from my cheek to my eye or nostril and thence to my lungs?  Do they have little legs?  Now, even though we're assuming, for this exercise only, that I'm an idiot, I obviously don't want any HB-19 virus on my person at all.  But how would a virus travel on the exterior of a human body?  Should we only wash our hands when we plan on picking our nose?  Inquiring minds (I'm using both...) want to know.   Aloha, Steve

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:22pm

    Jim H

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    Pat, Trump talked about mask sterilization today...

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/ohio-dewine-trump-administration-mask-ruling-154378

    At issue was the FDA’s decision to allow emergency use of a Battelle system that decontaminates specialized N95 face masks, allowing doctors and nurses to safely reuse them. On Saturday, the FDA approved Battelle’s Columbus headquarters to sterilize 10,000 masks per day, even though the company says its machines have the capacity to decontaminate 80,000.

    "The FDA's decision to severely limit the use of this life-saving technology is nothing short of reckless," Gov. Mike DeWine, whose state is home to the company that makes the technology, said in a statement Sunday morning.

    DeWine said he appealed directly to President Donald Trump to allow broader adoption of the system, and Ohio's attorney general threatened to sue if FDA didn't act quickly to authorize more extensive use.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:51pm

    dtrammel

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    What About Baby Bottle Sterilizers?

    Peter, what about something like this, using led UV lamps?

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07W7HSDPZ/

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 9:53pm

    #32

    dtrammel

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    Two Masks

    But, good point. these are designed to protect the wearer not the others surrounding.. Its a high pressure solution for the wearer.  but it would expel infection to those around them.   This is not a good mask to wear to protect spread from the wearer.

    You would want to save your N95 masks for when you were not infected, then change to something like a surgical mask or DIY fabric mask once you showed symptoms. Not ideal, since you would have a few days of being asymptomatic and spreading but I don't see a reason to ditch the more efficient N95 at the beginning phase.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 10:35pm

    timot78

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    timot78 said:

    Dtrammel,

    No technical details are provided re: wavelength and dosage (mJ/cm^2).

    One of the bullets states: STERILIZES ANYTHING IN JUST 11 MINUTES – Baby bottles, teethers, soft toys, or toothbrushes are fully sterilized in just 11 minutes – Convenient DRYING CYCLE also.

    SO, I suppose, the 2 mJ/cm^2 levels are reached in 10-11 minutes.   Probably would be OK, but would be good to check the claims against dosage produced by this device to make sure the critical germicidal level is reached.

    -Peter

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 11:04pm

    #34
    Ted & Diane Cohn

    Ted & Diane Cohn

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    How to make a mask out of an old t-shirt in one minute!

    This is pure gold, no sewing required, all you need are scissors:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSSyl3m9WLA

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 11:36pm

    #35

    dtrammel

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    Outstanding Ted & Diane

    That's how we will bet this virus, thank you.

     

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 11:51pm

    #36
    wildtravel

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    Undocumented Infections

    Hi Chris,

    Thank you so much for your prescience and analysis in forecasting the pandemic and the economy.

    I actually arrived at the same numbers (i.e. 86% asymptomatic transmission) as the data you reported today from New Scientist, by deduction from the WHO’s claimed 3.4% fatality rate, as below:

    Using Worldometer numbers, today’s actual CFR is 18% (30850 deaths divided by total recovered plus total dead), being the outcome of the number of cases who were infected 2 weeks ago (126,214 cases). On this basis, and if the WHO CFR is correct, there should only be 4,291 dead today.
    Guessing that governments are less likely to be lying/unaware of deaths than numbers of infected, and doing a calculation from today’s actual deaths and the WHO CFR suggests there were actually 907,353 cases 2 weeks ago, including asymptomatic cases. That seems a realistic possibility, and gives a ratio of diagnosed to undiagnosed cases of about 14%.

    Applying that number to today’s diagnosed cases (663,127) suggests there are actually about 4.7M actual cases worldwide today.
    Also, if 3.4% of the world’s population does die in the next year before a vaccine, that’s about 265 billion people.

    I hope this deduced conformation of 86% gives you some confidence to harden up the “Scenario A/B” model to extrapolate a clearer picture on the trajectory to herd immunity, and to try and come to terms with worst case extrapolated world fatality numbers.

    Warmest regards to all.

     

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:14am

    #37
    Moriador

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    Paper published in Emerging Infectious Diseases and reprinted by NIH confirms effectiveness of masks for reduction of community spread of SARS (2003)

    Thought you might find this interesting.

    https://youtu.be/SyIsLx4RJs8

    Go to 8:30 and listen. EDIT: Sorry. 32:40, not 8:30.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322931/

    I don't know if this is the research to which the virologists in the above video were referring. But it quotes the same figures.

    "Wearing masks outside the home in a reference period corresponding to the 2 weeks before symptom onset for cases was significantly protective against clinical SARS. Supporting the validity of this finding, there was a dose-response effect: by multivariable analysis, persons who always wore masks had a 70% lower risk of being diagnosed with clinical SARS compared with those who never wore masks, and persons with intermittent mask use had a 60% lower risk. Many persons who wore masks in the community did not use N-95 or similar highly efficient filtration devices, which have been recommended for use in the hospital setting."

    So. Yeah. We've known for a very long time that masks work very well to reduce community spread of coronaviruses. And that the only reason almost no one is willing to say so is that the global supply is catastrophically low.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:31am

    Afridev

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    Inner tyres for elastic

    Elastic for DIY masks: strips of old inner tyres (bike or car).

    Very handy and can be used for many other tasks (2 rings from bike tire have has been holding light switch on my 10/22 for years, a bit fiddly to get on, but once installed works like a charm 🙂 )

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 3:01am

    dryam2000

    dryam2000

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    Prosper

    AKGrannyWGrit,

    When people focus more on others or on a higher calling, and not themselves, they tend to be more energetic, happier (or less distraught however you want to put it), and more resilient.  Focusing on what one can actually be *doing* everyday to the live the best we can can go a long way to having less stress, less anxiety, and increasing contentment.

    There’s a time and place for focusing on and sharing feelings about things, but this can definitely be overdone and can easily become counterproductive.  My sense is the more ‘advanced’ a society is, the less emotionally resilient the society is.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:19am

    Oliveoilguy

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    Do something physical ....Less Computer Time

    My day is fairly balanced even in this new paradigm. I work in the garden.....practice guitar...still run my construction company....and do my Internet PP reading and responding in small spurts. We even did a social distance happy hour with chairs set 2 meters apart on the porch of a house I’m building. We had 5 people being very cautious but eager to share thoughts.

    I have noticed you post a lot....Maybe some physical activity might take some of your stress away. Sew masks? Grow sprouts? Target practice? Jogging or working out? Too much computer time is not healthy. And I agree with Dryam2000....about focusing on others.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:41am

    drbrucedale

    drbrucedale

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    1+

    Wildtravel: You need to correct your calculation

    Hi Wildtravel:

    Your calculation of the number of potential dead is a bit off.  🙂 We all make mistakes like this, but such mistakes must also be corrected. There are about 7.5 billion people on the planet. If 3.4% of them die because of the coronavirus, then that is about 265 million, not 265 billion, which would be many more people than actually live on the planet.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:43am

    #42
    brianwilliams82

    brianwilliams82

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    Joined: Nov 05 2018

    Posts: 15

    6+

    Czech Republic, let's not count our chickens!

    I live in the Czech Republic.  Yes, the mandatory mask wearing IS a good thing and people (at least, the ones I see from my window) ARE doing it, which is great.  However, there has not been a noticeable decrease in the curve as yet - if that is to happen, it's expected sometime towards the end of this week.  There is very much a 'can do' spirit among the populace but we're also seeing a lot of hospital/nursing home infections and lots of crying from various parties about the same lack of PPE that we're hearing about from everywhere.  And this in spite of the fact that CR has had a number of direct cargo flights from China in the past week bringing in massive quantities of said PPE - even sending some on to Italy and Spain.

     

    So, yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic but no more.  The country is also trialling a Singapore-style 'intelligent quarantine', aka. contact tracing by means of mobile phone + bank debit card tracking.  The aim is to roll this out across the country after Easter in the hope of loosening some of the more draconian restrictions that have been put in place.  Fingers crossed for this.  I don't know why more countries aren't just copying these best practices; I mean, it's not like you're going to get taken to court for plagiarism, is it?!

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 5:36am

    #43
    Tony McPherson

    Tony McPherson

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    3+

    Tony McPherson said:

    Here is a link to an excellent discussion with an expert from South Korea about masks. The whole video is worth listening to. I strongly recommend the part about the Surgeon General and the WHO. Start at 16 minutes in and go to 19 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:25am

    #44
    cchardy55

    cchardy55

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    Joined: Mar 30 2020

    Posts: 2

    https://newsthud.com/ny-doctor-successfully-treats-patients-with-drug-cocktail-zero-deaths-zero-hospitalizations-zero-intubations/

    Thank you for the solid information!

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:42am

    #45
    Gerald Melino

    Gerald Melino

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    Joined: Sep 16 2011

    Posts: 12

    Rate of spread decreasing ex-China

    This chart is shows the day over day growth in the number of confirmed cases ex-China. The center line is at the previous average of 17% per day and the dotted red lines are approximate 99% confidence limits. The rate of growth is defiantly slowing with the last 9 days below average and falling.

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 7:07am

    Ision

    Ision

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    Calculating UV-C Dose...

    Your math is correct, IF you actually know the REAL amount of UV-C radiation your light source is creating.  This has nothing to do with the rated Wattage of the bulb used.

    For example:  A PHILIPS PL-L 36W/4P TUV bulb is rated at 36 Watts.  However, the actual HV-C output of this bulb is only 12 Watts.  The variables in the math for calculating dose, and kill times, is based on the 12 Watt figure, not the 36 Watt.

    Usually, the radiation output for any HV-C light source is measured via an HV-C detection meter, placed one Meter away from the bulb.  This is a standard distance used by most dose charts.  Plus, a bulb does not have a constant output of HV-C radiation and may be effected by variation in temperature of the bulb and the age of the bulb.

    Typically, an influenza virus requires a dose of 6,000 to kill 90.9% of them.  A 12 Watt HV-C output @ one Meter distance, will kill it in about 50 seconds.  The effects of such radiation accumulate for the virus, so repeated shorter bursts of such radiation will accrue growing damage within in the virus, until enough is absorbed to inactivate it.

    Additionally, a partially damaged virus, which suffered too short a radiation time, will often be able to repair its RNA damage to become active again.  In this case, the virus is impaired, and not killed.  But, such repair takes time, during which the virus may again be subject to additional HV-C radiation, due to air circulation, which brings it back into the range of the HV-C source, like may happen withing a HVAC system, using HV-C filters.

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 7:39am

    #47

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    Wonder If Bob Nelsen Reads Peak Prosperity

    Interesting interview with a biotech venture capitalist

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30/biotech-vc-bob-nelsen-called-it-right-on-the-coronavirus-now-he-has-thoughts-on-therapeutics-and-masks/

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 7:48am

    #48

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    Good Discussion On The Aerosol Characteristics of Covid19

    Something for Chris, (and the number crunchers)

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

    One thing that stood out to me, "Is the virus in fecal matter more easily aerosolized?"

    A study by virologist Ke Lan of Wuhan University and his colleagues found that “rare” does not mean “never,” however. They took 35 air samples at two hospitals as well as public areas in Wuhan, where the Covid-19 outbreak apparently started. They found no coronavirus in intensive care areas where Covid-19 patients were being treated, in general patient rooms, in hallways, or outside the hospitals.

    But coronavirus aerosols were found near patients’ toilets in Wuchang Fangcang Field Hospital. That wasn’t a total shock: Receptors for coronavirus exist not only in the airways but also in the gastrointestinal tract, so cells there can become infected, shedding virus into fecal material. The paper, posted to a preprint site, has not been peer-reviewed.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.982637v1

    One puzzling outbreak, with 329 cases, occurred at a Hong Kong apartment complex whose residents had not been in close contact with each other. A 2014 analysis concluded that “airborne spread was the most likely explanation, and the SARS coronavirus could have spread over a distance of 200 meters,” or about 600 feet, apparently starting with a SARS patient who had diarrhea.

    The 329 Hong Kong cases, another analysis concluded, suggest that although SARS was primarily spread by droplets, “to a much limited degree [it was also spread] by aerosols.” The aerosolization likely originated “from malfunctioning sewers in the building.”

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:15am

    #49

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    14+

    Wildlife Coming Back To Locked Down Cities

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:24am

    #50
    taz1999

    taz1999

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    Joined: Feb 25 2020

    Posts: 44

    scenario a or b

     

     

    For scenario B, It seems that someone who can do the math could compare current infection rates with the exponential curves.  Seems by definition as the herd immunity increases you  fall off the exponential rate.  It would be interesting to see the inflection points.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:26am

    taz1999

    taz1999

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    Posts: 44

    don't care who you are

    that's hilarious

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:34am

    John Wick

    John Wick

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    DON'T LEAVE MASKS IN SUN! It destroys the fabric.

    Chris suggested in his most recent video that he places his N95 in the sun. According to the inventor of the fabric, this destroys them! https://www.sages.org/n-95-re-use-instructions/. "When sterilizing N95 masks, be wary of using UV light–keep N95 masks away from UV light / sunlight. N95 masks are degraded by UV light because it damages the electrostatic charges in the polypropylene material. It is unclear how long the masks can be exposed to UV light before they are ineffective."

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:47am

    #53
    Dr Colin Wall

    Dr Colin Wall

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    Naming the Beast

    Since this is the first multi-media pandemic I think we got this wrong by calling this a "virus", aka a runny nose. Most people did not know what a corona virus is, so they were told it is a bit like flu -but it might be worse. Consider what would have happened if, from the beginning, they had been told it was a "plague" - a bit like bubonic plague, only it is a bit worse. Then you might have seen more people wearing masks! Marketing terminology is SO important. Chris, thank you for your brilliant, fact-led reviews.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:51am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    Thanks for the Link TWA

    Interesting read, though the temperature numbers in the link are off from the study we have read. Still the indication that UV light degrades the electrostatic charge (one of three methods a mask uses to filter) is interesting. I wonder is he has any specific studies that show the measure it decreases.

    I wonder if the salt saturation method we've discussed could recharge the electro static charge. If UV doesn't do physical damage to the mask material then that is a possible way to fix the charge damage.

    I also disagree with his assertion of just 3 day disinfection with time. The data is all over the place in different studies but the low end is at or above 3 days. Be better to allow more time, as much as you can but at least 5-6 if not the full 9.

    Good point about the metal in an oven being hotter than the air circulating. The air is probably cooler by 5-10F. Having the used mask inside of a paper bag should cut down on that difference. As well as making it safer to handle contaminated masks.

    It comes down to this though, is a slightly degraded N95 mask better than a cotton DIY mask?

    Thanks for the link TWA.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:12am

    #55

    dtrammel

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    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

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    If Covid19 Was A Person

    Ok, second funny of the day. Would seeing this walking around, make you stand 6 feet from everyone?

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:31am

    #56

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    3+

    New Daily Routine

    I've been spending way too much time in front of the computer. Though the last week the weather was poor. Today its nice and sunny though. Supposed to be that way all week too.

    So this week its work on the computer from wake up (7-8am) until noon. Then a walk around the block. Followed by working in the garden to get it ready until about 5pm. 5-6pm sit on the front porch and read a book. 6-7pm animal shelter duties and shopping if needed. 7pm back on the computer for a few hours.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:38am

    nordicjack

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    Dt regarding Baby bottle sterilizer

    This is basically a steam application, should work fine. probably a bit less destructive than boiling.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:44am

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    TWA, regarding masks uv destruction

    We are aware of this , its been discussed many times on the forum.  We also are aware of the electrostatic properties of the fabric.. We still need to sterilize, but must choose that is most convenient and least destructive..    Soaking in solution, or washing is problem.. heating is a problem.. UV lights and ozone are all destructive..  and now the sun is too?  well if you have to destroy a virus..  I would say it has to be inherently destructive in some capacity.. Only other option is time...... and I believe that too - if given enough time - would effect the electrostatic properties.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:45am

    #59

    Mark_BC

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Posts: 386

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    In Canada, wearing a mask increases your risk for disease

    Amazing. Our medical leaders are spineless followers of the official narrative they have been told to tow. Apparently now, wearing a face mask INCREASES your risk for catching the virus , as fiddling with it supposedly makes you touch your face more. How can people with years of study at university say such stupid things?

    So we are being told: this virus spreads primarily via droplets coming from your mouth. Apparently, staying 6 feet apart makes it safe to go outside and intermingle with others. Not sure where 6 feet came from. No mention about if the wind blowing your direction increases that minimum safe distance. And, a mask makes no impact on the spread of those droplets?!?!? What? And, we are told that masks act primarily to reduce transmission FROM infected people to others, not to protect healthy people from catching it. Ummm, aren't we all being told that infected people regularly shed the virus before showing symptoms? But remember people, wearing a mask is ineffective!!!!

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:51am

    #60

    msnrochny

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    Joined: Nov 04 2010

    Posts: 49

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    Model Shows Projected Peak and Timing by State

    In true exponential fashion, it’s startling and humbling to see we are only at the front edge of the curve, and in 2-3 weeks, we will be at the peak (slowly at first, and then all at once).

    https://covidactnow.org/

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:54am

    #61
    mweight01

    mweight01

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    Super-important - please share

    I don't usually hype things like this, but it was sent to me by my 89 year old cousin in Honolulu and it needs to be shared.  If Dr. Vuong's video has  already made it's way here please disreagard this.  If not, I strongly urge us all watch it, to understand what we are up against and why we are circling the wagons.  And please, let's send it to our disbelieving friends and kin.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 10:01am

    #62
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

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    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 364

    Official Australia says masks not needed

    In public I see almost nobody wearing a mask. Here's what we're being told:

    Surgical face masks, however, are not designed to provide respiratory protection, said Abrar Chughtai, an infectious disease epidemiologist from the University of New South Wales. "When face masks were designed in the early 19th century, surgeons started using them to prevent the spread of their pathogens into operating fields," Dr Chughtai said. "The main objective ... was to prevent the spread of infection." Surgical masks do not provide a seal around the face, and therefore do not filter viral airborne particles.

    Here's some more:

    Respirators, such as the P2 masks recommended for bushfire smoke, are thicker than surgical masks and able to filter 95 per cent of airborne particles. However, these masks are uncomfortable and difficult to wear for long periods of time, so they are not recommended for general use in countries where transmission is not widespread.

    P2 is equivalent to N95. And more:

    "There is no need for the Australian public to wear masks. The only people who should wear masks in relation to this virus are those who are unwell and have a relevant travel history," Australia's chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said on Tuesday.

    RACGP president Dr Harry Nespolon told The Feed there's no need for most people to wear a mask right now unless they want to. "At the moment the advice is that just walking down the street is not going to cause you to get the coronavirus -- you really need to be in close contact with someone who's both got the symptoms and has been to China in the last 14 days, to be really at risk," he said. "If you're perfectly well at the moment, you should go about life normally."

    I wonder how long before this changes…

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 10:08am

    loj-ikul

    loj-ikul

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    Masks with one way valve

    I use one of these and they work better when wearing goggles as they direct and expel the breath downward over the chest area. This way they do not fog up the glasses. The breath is not projected  outward in a cloud, unlike the videos Chris has showed of those without masks.

    To protect others better, a person  could wear a surgical mask over the N95. A scarf or homemade mask would stop more as well. As mentioned tape over the valve or some type of creative filter placed under the plastic on the front would lessen it as well.

    As for those that think only health care providers should wear masks, I go with the old saying an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Those that wear masks in public are practicing prevention. Those without are depending on the cure.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 10:13am

    ndgprasad

    ndgprasad

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    ndgprasad said:

    1. India's response and plan chart 2003.12055

    This is India's response to carona. Lockdown Marthon vs small relaxations in between. Pfa the study pdf too.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 10:18am

    yagasjai

    yagasjai

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    Couldn't Agree More

    AKGrannyWGrit: "Vulnerability is the birthplace of courage."

    I couldn't agree more.

    I think there is a way that a lot of us come to the conclusion, very early in life, that there is some problem with being vulnerable. I know this is true for myself, and I see it in others that I am close to, that one way or another, we get hurt as young ones when we were being vulnerable, and without any broader context or information, we arrive at the conclusion that it was our own vulnerability that caused the hurt. This isn't actually true, most often, the things that hurt us were far beyond our control. Yet we don't realize that, so we attempt to reign in the vulnerability in an attempt to prevent being hurt again.

    Feelings are one way of being vulnerable that most of us have been heavily conditioned against, most of us do not have effective models of how to feel things and not get stuck in them. What we see around us as we are growing up, or at least I did, were people doing the best they could when hard things happened. Maybe a tear or two was shed when someone died, but mostly I learned to pack those unwanted emotions away. (I'm fine if we never speak of it again! Let's move on!)

    Over a lifetime, those things accumulate. For each of us. We are all carrying around a backlog of unresolved stuff we would rather not have to deal with. And we kind of have to, because we are operating within the context of an economic system which has scarcity built into it and it offers a ticket out of scarcity in the form of a paycheck. In order to get the paycheck, we are required to remain "productive" in the particular ways that the system values, which leaves very little room to feel anything! The lessons we learned as young ones are reinforced.

    So when the system itself breaks down and there is no longer a demand for our productivity and no longer a reward (paycheck) for us suppressing the backlog of crap, suddenly we find ourselves in a very disorienting place of terror (yes, pandemic, economic collapse, ka-POOM!) but also of uncertainty of what to do with those unwanted feelings. That's because we mostly haven't been given the tools or skills or models for what to do with them.

    So in addition to practicing putting our minds on concrete tasks that build our resilience (I have a very looonnngg list of things I need to do and take great satisfaction in crossing off the ones I have done- that is part of how I have kept going through all of this.) In addition to doing the tasks, I would also suggest taking time to let yourself feel even a little bit of what is there. If you can do it sitting by a favorite lake or tree. Great. If you can do it with a non-judgemental friend to listen, even better. Whatever bits of it you can release in a way that doesn't harm yourself or anyone else, is a bit of it that you won't be carrying forward into the next set of challenges. It's a bit that will free you mind up to work just a little more flexibly. And it's a bit that you won't have to keep working around as you try to set up your life the way you want it in response to the great uncertainty we are all facing.

    Those bits accumulate too, but the other way around. As they are unloaded the backlog becomes less hard to manage. This has been my personal experience. I am speaking as someone who took anti-depressants and anti-anxiety pills for 23 years because the system said that's what I needed to do in order to function. They were wrong. I've been off them 8 years and not only does my mind work in ways I didn't realize it could, but my life (work, health, connections, etc..) is light years away from what it once was. But it takes the courage to be vulnerable. Just like you said.

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 10:27am

    #66
    redinr08

    redinr08

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    Joined: Mar 21 2008

    Posts: 15

    Great article on why we should wear masks

    https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 10:47am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1173

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    Mweight - taking this seriously

    I watched the video you linked to and it makes some very good points - I think this is inline with the message of Dr. Zelenko, who was recently interviewed by Rudy Guiliani on his youtube channel.  Here is a quote from that video from Dr. Zelenko regarding his use of hydroxychloroquine (as Zn ionophore) + high dose Zn (220 mg daily) + Zithromax for older (> 60 yrs old) or those with comorbitities who present with Covid-19 symptoms;

    "It (Zinc + ionophore) reduces the amound of virus - giving the immune system time to overcome it before it destroys the lungs"

    My evolving view is that we should employ something of a graded prophylactic approach in our supplementation;

    Young (< 40) can maybe just take daily Zinc, 30mg as picolinate with Copper (if available)

    Older can take more Zinc - I am 60 and am taking 2 x 30 mg daily.  I am also using regular 500 mg quercetin as prophylactic, but will up that to more of the super well absorbed quercetin phytosome if I start feeling sick.  I would also increase Zinc even more if I feel sick.

    Dr. Zelenko interview;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TJdjhd_XG8

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 10:52am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1173

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    loj... good idea on adding additional covering to the valve!

    To protect others better, a person  could wear a surgical mask over the N95. A scarf or homemade mask would stop more as well. As mentioned tape over the valve or some type of creative filter placed under the plastic on the front would lessen it as well.

    very simple and elegant solution to the anti-social aspect of a valved N95.. Thank you!

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 10:58am

    KugsCheese

    KugsCheese

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    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 909

    Re: 3M

    The valve is for out breathe only; its a one-way valve.  The virus will escape thru valve?   Really?  Evidence?  Don't over complicate.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 11:28am

    #70

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    4+

    Thank you yagasjai!

    They were wrong. I’ve been off them 8 years and not only does my mind work in ways I didn’t realize it

    Thank you, I am so happy for you!  Awesome, 8 years and doing great!

    I can not take credit for the thought “vulnerability is the birthplace of courage” that is Brene Brown.  She was on 60 minutes last night and worth watching.  I realized why I stick around even though I often feel criticized.  Brene talks about failure, and criticism. If someone isn’t out there they won’t get criticized.  And it they are not failing they aren’t showing up.

    Another good piece of advice. Take an extra small sticky note, maybe an inch by an inch and write down whose opinion about yourself you value.  And when someone criticizes you check the sticky note.  If their name isn’t on it. Then don’t give a shit what they say.  My list is very small. Lol, great advice.

    Best wishes yafasjai.  I look forward to your comments.

    I am off to work on my to-do list as well.  And Brene has books on Audible.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 11:39am

    timot78

    timot78

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    Posts: 36

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    Ok, please provide reference(s)

    Thanks for "approval" of the calculations.  They were almost back of the envelope, to understand what the dose of 2 mJ/cm^2 means in terms of UV-C Wattage.

    Quote: Typically, an influenza virus requires a dose of 6,000 to kill 90.9% of them.  A 12 Watt HV-C output @ one Meter distance, will kill it in about 50 seconds.  The effects of such radiation accumulate for the virus, so repeated shorter bursts of such radiation will accrue growing damage within in the virus, until enough is absorbed to inactivate it.

     

    Please explain (and provide reference) what the dose of 6000 mean (what's the dimension?)   It's hard to read the posts that are not references, not explained in coherent way, just throw some facts around and that's a post. For me it carries low/no value.  If you have anything substantial (and you are new to this website) to say,  especially when it comes to providing some engineering/scientific facts - please be as precise as you can be.  Are you manufacturer of UV lights? Are you and engineer/scientist?  Are you virologist ? Otherwise these are opinions.  Yes, one has to take the Wattage of UV-C light sources with significant safety factor  (my safety factor was 200) to make sure that the virus is killed - since the efficiency of UV-C lights are not 100%, that's obvious.   So, again, please provide references to support and explain your statements.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 11:42am

    #72
    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 342

    Copper anti microbial

    I have been looking into using more copper metal in my life.  Evidently contact with copper kills viruses in a very short time.  I usually wear my keys on a string around my neck.  I am buying some copper chain to put keys on.  I am buying thin copper wire to wrap my truck steering wheel and gear shift knob. I am buying some colloidal copper solution to spray on masks before drying.  I am also carrying a large copper coin to push buttons, etc.  From what I have read, copper, unlike silver, works even when it's dry or oxidized.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 11:48am

    drbrucedale

    drbrucedale

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    I don't think a virus can self repair

    A virus has no cellular machinery to repair itself...unless I have totally forgotten my classes.  Inside a cell, the virus takes over the cell's machinery. Outside a cell, I don't think it can self repair. Anyone with greater biochemical knowledge is welcome to correct me.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 11:49am

    taz1999

    taz1999

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    Joined: Feb 25 2020

    Posts: 44

    The Far Side

    Gary Larson cartoon.  It's natures way of saying Don't Touch

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 12:01pm

    #75
    LabCat

    LabCat

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    Joined: Jan 28 2020

    Posts: 45

    14+

    Sorry!* *not sorry

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 12:10pm

    #76

    suziegruber

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    Here's Why I Wear A Mask - Costco Worker Tests Positive

    Here's why I wear a mask when I need to go out for groceries.

    The management of Costco Wholesale in Central Point notified staff after a worker tested positive for COVID-19, the store confirmed to NewsWatch 12 on Monday.

    According to the information that Costco circulated to employees, the store management was informed that an employee in the store's Front End department had tested positive. That employee's last day at work was Monday, March 23.

    Costco said that it had contacted Jackson County Public Health and was cooperating with any directions they had, was adding additional cleaning and sanitation protocols, and would be contacting any other employees who had been in close contact with the individual.

    "Current health guidelines state that people who have not been in close contact with a sick person are at low risk for infection," the management said to employees.

    This is my local Costco and I shopped there on March 22nd, yes, while wearing a mask and using hand sanitizer liberally.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 12:24pm

    thesecuritygirl

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    were you concerned about contamination through AC unit

    I just did the same thing but concerned that maybe there could be transmission through aerosol in AC ducts?  Are you also concerned?

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 1:14pm

    #78
    missy

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    N95 decontamination

    I bought a UV home sterilizer based on conversations we had here weeks ago, as we only have a couple N95 masks. One mask has been sterilized about 10 times since then. I did not realize degrading is a concern, so I am thankful for some follow up here, even though I'm not mathematically talented enough to discern precisely what is being said. We have a few N99 masks which are not as well fitted, nor as comfortable. But I guess we may have to break them out, since it seems impossible to guess if we're managing the others adequately. We also have some colloidal silver spray, so maybe I'll try to learn more about that. I did not know about the regular oven cooking method, either. 200 degrees for what amount of time, in a paper bag? Sigh. TIA to anyone who replies. You guys have been wonderful (if I sound like I'm complaining, I am not. Just a bit worn out.)!

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 1:22pm

    Jim H

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    Kugs - 3M valve masks... protect only the wearer

    Kugs, These 3M N95 valved masks are specifically designed for respiratory protection of the wearer, and the wearer only.  They are a different in concept from a real surgical mask, which is designed for two-way droplet (larger particles) protection of both the wearer and those in local contact with the wearer.

    https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/665049O/3m-cool-flow-valve-brochure.pdf

    I am looking closely at one of my 3M 8511 N95 masks right now, and I can clearly see that the valve is a flapper.. it opens completely upon exhalation so the exhaled breath, while directed somewhat downward, is not filtered.

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 1:51pm

    Quercus bicolor

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    Agree - vulnerability and emotions are important

    I must agree with Granny and Yagasjai.  I know there is a whole lot to do in this crisis to keep ourselves safe and prepare for an uncertain future.  Keeping busy can help keep our mind out of dark places.

    With that said, though, intense times like this create lots of stress and lots of emotions.  We can only stuff them so long before they come back to bite us and get in the way of us doing all of those things that need to be done.  In this case, we also can lose sight of what's important and perhaps even miss an important change in the big picture that calls for a change of course.  We can also miss the opportunities that crisis always presents - often opportunities to create a future where we don't shoot ourselves in the foot by creating conditions that invite crises.

    To go farther, some mentors of mine whom I greatly respect say that the reason our society is so hellbent on accumulating more stuff at the expense of both real connection, our own future, and the global ecosystem is that we all live in a state of unresolved grief - grief from separation from nature, separation from each other, even separation from our own inner life.  If this is true, the most graceful way through this predicament we find ourselves in as humans today is in part defined by slowing down and doing our own inner work.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:15pm

    #81
    NickAdams10

    NickAdams10

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    Link, please

    @Chris,

    Can you please link to the study with the following (or mention the minute mark in which you discuss the following)? Thank you.

    Research is showing that the recommended social distance of two meters (6.8 feet) is inadequate to protect against airborne particles. Four times that amount is more likely — reinforcing the effectiveness of both social isolating tactics (like sheltering at home) and wearing masks.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:26pm

    LeftCoaster

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    Oven temp

    Hi Missy, Chris had said on a video: put used mask, of any kind (N95 or surgical) in a clean paper bag (lunch bag?) and heat in preheated oven, set at at 173 F for 30 min.  Most ovens don't go as low as 173, so if you set it at 200, open the door a few moments & then put mask in, turning oven off & on about every 5-10 min, you should be ok.  My only concern would be if you have the N95, with an exhaust valve (my preference), they are made of plastic, so I would not want the oven to get too hot.  If you have an oven thermometer, used for cooking, already in oven, that may be helpful.. If not, you could probably use the infra red thermometers, many folks have.  I hope this helps. And you are correct. It is A LOT of info. Whew!

    Take care,

    Pat

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:28pm

    wildtravel

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    Masks in Australia

    Yes Ezixq1949, Australians will pay dearly for  this well orchestrated misinformation campaign about masks.

    I get challenged regularly for wearing a bandana in public (to protect them).  I tell people it’s a fashion statement.

    This is a problem which needs to be solved from the bottom up here, so I’ve been inspired by the Czech example to sew and give away masks.  Do join me in subverting the dominant  paradigm.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:34pm

    #84
    ao

    ao

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    if you're having a rough time, just remember

    You could be this person.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:37pm

    #85
    New_Life

    New_Life

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    No need for masks

    Just don't cough, sneeze or breathe heavily near me.

     

    https://mobile.twitter.com/WHO/status/1243972193169616898

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:41pm

    missy

    missy

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    my bad

    Thank you so much, Pat. I had not watched the video first! That'll teach me. Take care, yourself!

    M

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 3:17pm

    #87

    sofistek

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    Herd Immunity

    The number of reported cases to achieve herd immunity depends on the testing strategy and on whether having had it does result in immunity. I mention the latter condition because there have been reports of reinfections.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 3:24pm

    wildtravel

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    Undocumented Infection & CFR

    Thank you for the correction drbrucedale.  The worst case scenario for global CFR (3.4%) would be about 265 million souls, or 5 times the estimated toll of the 1918 pandemic.

    The verification of the Columbia University data on the China experience of an 86% transmission rate by unreported and perhaps asymptomatic carriers appears to be reflected in global data.  I would suggest from my analysis that an ultimate 3.4% CFR also appears to be a good number.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:02pm

    KugsCheese

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    N95 Masks

    So we are assuming almost all have the active virus?   Also, have there been tests for these masks that analyze a cough or sneeze to determine how many larger particles get thru the valve instead of being trapped on the interior of the fabric?

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:14pm

    Linda T

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    RE: Agree - vulnerability and emotions are important

    Granny, Yagasjai, and Quercus bicolor,

    I also agree with the value and power of vulnerability, and I wanted to add some additional information about Brene Brown. Besides her audiobooks and physical books, she has done TED talks and I’ve seen her on YouTube as well (although it’s been awhile but she should still be there). From her wiki:

    “…The Gifts of Imperfection, Daring Greatly, Rising Strong, Braving the Wilderness, and Dare to Lead. She also hosts the Unlocking Us podcast and her TED talk is one of the top five most viewed TED Talks in the world. Her filmed lecture, Brené Brown: The Call to Courage, debuted on Netflix in 2019...”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bren%C3%A9_Brown

    I wanted to also mention Chellis Glendinning and her book “My Name Is Chellis and I’m in Recovery from Western Civilization” (which I have). For me, it’s the best book I’ve read about the trauma of separating ourselves from nature, and ourselves as a result. I had an incredible amount of ah-ha’s when I read it, as well as my eyes would tear up spontaneously as I read the book.

    Other authors Carolyn Baker, Charles Einstein, and Derrick Jensen too (but he can be a bit radical for a lot of people…) have also written about this topic and other parts of the huge jigsaw puzzle called our civilization, society, and culture. Besides James Howard Kunstler, John Michael Greer, and Richard Heinberg who I have mentioned in previous posts and the authors in this post, there are many others…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chellis_Glendinning

    I have several of Carolyn’s books, “Collapsing Consciously: Transformative Truths for Turbulent Times”, “Navigating the Coming Chaos: A Handbook for Inner Transition”, and “Sacred Demise: Walking the Spiritual Path of Industrial Civilization’s Collapse”.

    https://carolynbaker.net/books/

    John Michael Greer has also written quite a few books. Here’s some of the titles he’s written under the category of economics and political change.

    • The Long Descent: A User's Guide to the End of the Industrial Age (New Society Publishers, September 2008)
    • The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World (New Society Publishers, October 2009)
    • The Wealth of Nature: Economics As If Survival Mattered (New Society Publishers, May 2011) ISBN 978-0-86571-673-5
    • Green Wizardry (New Society, 2013)
    • Not the Future we Ordered: Peak Oil, Psychology and the Myth of Progress (Karnac, 2013)
    • Decline and Fall: the End of Empire and the Future of Democracy in the 21st Century (New Society, 2014)
    • Collapse Now and Avoid the Rush: the Best of the Archdruid Report (Founders House, 2015)
    • After Progress: Reason and Religion at the End of the Industrial Age Paperback (New Society Publishers, April 2015)
    • Dark Age America: Climate Change, Cultural Collapse, and the Hard Future Ahead (New Society Publishers, September 2016)
    • The Retro Future: Looking to the Past to Remake the Future (New Society, 2017)

    Linda

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:27pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    Dt regarding baby bottle sterilizer (for mask reuse)

    Nordic-man
    You are on to something here.
    As Dtrammel points out we need something more than 60 degrees C to sterilize masks in a reasonable time.
    (he pointed out that:

    "1) SARS virus was killed in 90 minutes at 56C/132.8F
    2) SARS virus was killed in 60 minutes at 67C/152.6F
    3) SARS virus was killed in 30 minutes at 75C/167F"

    Some baby bottle sterilizers can be set to 70 or even 80 degrees C for a programmed time (60 minutes at 70 degrees or 30 minutes at 80 degrees).  These use moist air (not necessarily steam) to transfer heat from a water bath so I would not expect mask deterioration at 70 or 80 deg C in a bottle "sterilizer."

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:45pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    Copper anti microbial

    Kunga
    1. Copper, silver and gold all work to destroy bacteria and viruses on contact via a similar property (they are in the same column of the periodic chart and their outer electron configurations are similar).
    2. Because it is so cheap, copper (usually as copper sulfate) and not silver or gold salt is used to kill algae in ponds, used to kill bacteria in swimming pools and used to pressure treat wood to make it mold resistant.
    3. It is the ionic form (salt form in solution) which is active and works by ripping off electrons from things like proteins, and denatures them.  Colloidal (metal) form does NOT do this, but instead is convenient to add to goops and gels which under the right conditions slowly dissolves into the ionic form (which does the denaturation/killing) and make great bandages and creams for burn victims etc.

    4. All heavy metals (cadmium, lead etc.) have this destructive property.  If you add a lead salt to a protein solution in a test tube, the protein scrambles and you can see it precipitate- I used to teach this in my biochemistry lab when I was a college teacher.  But the weaker acting silver/copper/gold are less toxic and their weaker effects more easily blocked by the reducing environment within a complex cell.  The reason why silver/copper/gold are preferred is because their destructive effects are prevented/reversed by sulfhydral reducing agents such as glutathione, which are abundant inside animal cells, including the complex cells of your body.  This allows discrimination between human cells (scrambling of proteins-often by messing with cystine cross bridges is prevented by glutatione) and bacteria/viruses, which are not protected by glutatione.

    There is an amazing amount of misinformation on this topic infecting the internet.  Most people really dont want to learn or understand the science or hear this kind of explanation. I am learning much by discussing science details with people like Dtrammel AO and Sandpuppy here.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:57pm

    #93

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Wow Linda

    Thanks for  the information filled post.  I found that if I screen shot which post of Chris’s and then a post to refer back to I will be able to find it again. Lol.  Always looking for new podcasts and now audio books.  I will check out a few I am not familiar with.  Chris has had some as guests in the past like Carolyn Baker, Richard Heinberg and John Michael Greer.  Just search and you will be able to listen to them.

    Great resources, thanks a bunch!

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:59pm

    suziegruber

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    Joined: Dec 03 2008

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    And Anger Too....

    I really appreciate the commentary on the importance of feeling our emotions during this crazy time.  Quercus, you mentioned grief, which is important.  I want to add anger to the list.  Most of us have very compromised relationships with anger because we often associate feeling anger with behaving violently.  Those are two separate things.  When we can sit with our anger and name the protest inside, e.g. I'm angry that this virus is here and I don't like quarantining, then we are acknowledging what's true for us.  When I acknowledge my anger, I free up that life force for important things like how to best respond.  When I pretend it's not there, stuff it etc, I harm my physical body because it takes literal contraction to contain that energy and the anger leaks out sideways anyways when we snap at our beloveds etc.  Here's a brief piece I wrote about this on my blog.  In my opinion it's totally natural for big feelings to arise when our whole way of life gets tipped on its head even if we have been prepping for years.  By feeling our feelings we increase our capacity to tolerate the uncertainty of what's happening and stay connected to the people who matter to us most right now.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 5:25pm

    #95
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 439

    BC update re masks

    Coronavirus: Used masks in Interior Health to be sterilized, stored as emergency backup

    New use for ovens of closed restaurants?!?

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 5:45pm

    #96

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Joined: Feb 06 2011

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    Chris and Adam

    At the bottom of the landing page you have “Recommended 3E Sites”. It would be beneficial to have links to resources such as Suzi’s and maybe Carolyn Bakers etc..I suggest asking Suzi or Linda for recommendations

    This is an update that would provide needed benefits during this crisis. After all people don’t prosper if they are crazy😳😱

    Perhaps members could provide recommendations?  Might want to delegate?

    Helping Granny

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 5:48pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Me too... this is definitely an emotional time and we need to acknowledge our feelings

    First, here is a fabulous TED talk about Emotional Agility - some of you may be familiar with her book of the same title: https://www.ted.com/talks/susan_david_the_gift_and_power_of_emotional_courage

    I am dealing with a serious family conflict because of this. As many of you long time members know it is incredibly difficult to talk to the slow/non adjusters about serious things, especially those that we love and care about. While it is one thing to have one's knowledge and beliefs dismissed when the good times are rolling, it is much, much harder in situations like this where not paying attention can be a life and death matter.

    I bigly flubbed an interaction with my dear sister last week, triggered by her saying "never gonna happen" re wearing a mask. We are not talking 🙁 A niece laughed saying "no way" when I sent her a pic of a fashionable mask and asking if she was into the new trend.

    It is incredibly difficult to watch people you love having slow or not existent adjustments to this crisis, knowing that such simple measures will make a big difference. I am certain this is playing out across all communities...

    Sometimes there is nothing but feelings of resignation and it will play out however it plays out. People are going to stick with their belief systems no matter what evidence is presented. To that end all we can do is deal with our own responses to their rejections. Far easier said than done when they are people you love - for me anyway!

    This is and will continue to test us big time, for a long time. I know many here are well prepared physically. I think as Granny has indicated in her overture re feelings that it is time to also focus on the mental and emotional aspects of how we are dealing with it all. Let's face it, the deep pantry won't mean shit if we go to pieces in despair and conflict.

    Here is my challenge to the 'men' here: let it out and let us in. What are you feeling, and what are you doing for your mental and emotional health? Women too! What helps sustain your collective spirits? Perhaps this is fodder for another forum.

    With sincerity,

    Jan

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:07pm

    #98
    shanus

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    Link to airborne droplets video

    Can someone please provide the link for the airborne droplets coming put of your mouth whilst talking? It appears to be Chinese or Korean. Thanks

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:09pm

    #99
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 590

    Solutions has become clear. There is really no solution for the critical

    I would like to officially acknowledge the actual CFR.  I have heard testimony and watched numerous videos from doctors on the front line.    The numbers are pretty clear.   First, they all suggest that the hospitalization rate is 20% , but everyone wants to pretend they are only testing serious cases.   - No, or they would not say this.   The WHO , CDC, wuhan studies, all are on agreement of this figure now.   So, it consensus of officials ( who have been wrong ) but also front-line doctors ( who are probably right ) Again , as Chris says, we have to go on what we have been given.   There is a lot of unknowns and a lot of knowns.   I would say , that the WHO and CDC take a more conservative approach and deny until proven.  So if they finally, state something, my guess is its correct.  They are better at denying facts than making incorrect ones.  So to that end.,

    Do not think , more ventilators or overwhelming the medical system will change the out-come or save lives.     I mean it will, but it will really be a much smaller proportion than people think.     It is clear, that 30% of the people who enter the hospital will die , no matter what treatment or support is given.   And furthermore , 86% of all people ventilated die.  So , the vent is just a means to the end.   Its not something that will save you if you could get one.  That changes my whole understanding and belief how we should go about this course and treatment of disease.   I also submit that the small 15% that will survive a vent , will have a life-long disability and impairment.   So, the only question now is what do we do?  is there something that they are doing in the hospital that can keep some one from going critical?   Or are we really just watching people and making them more comfortable, hydration, oxygen? and waiting?

    Using the above information of 20% need hospital, 30% of hospitalized die, 5% critical ventilated,  86% die.  comes to a very easy CFR of about 5-6%.   Of course all populations are different;  Different diets, supplements, vaccinations, weights, age, activity, which can affect each populations hospitalization and death rates.  But I am going to settle here for this.  And I believe , whether hospitalized or not, out-come will not change for more than 75% of those.

    With this knowledge,  I still would not open the flood gates to the economy.   But , I would not burden the medical system.  Id leave that to other health issues as it was.  I would tell people that we can give you oxygen ( people should be visited at home by medics ) if oxygen is low , to make more comfortable and reduce chance of organ failure while the body immune system responds..  If cannot , you parish anyway..   no other treatments have been proven.   ( unless you are trying to treat secondary stuff  - like bacterial pneumonia )

    The reason, for my post, is just to come to some sort of standard belief of all the numbers flying and what is real. what can be believed.   I feel these are conservative , yet accurate enough to get close to real.     We are deep enough into this , that someone has to use what is given , and there is a lot given that is consistent.   I am not about to start to entertain that oh, so many are infected that dont know it..  I believe the true asymptomatics are really like 1% or less.   There is no evidence to the contrary . Also, I would like to add yes , I know of some missed an not counted cases of mild illness and I know also of many deaths that were never recorded.   I would think this is a wash and yes we have a lot more of both than reported.   I know we have questioned china's numbers and as Chris said , I agree the actual cases and deaths off by a factor of 10 at least.   However, I also said in other posts, that I believe the numbers given to use by the chinese are accurate to reflect the correct ratio, though , its just a subset of total data.   Meaning , CFR and severe cases will not change if it were a billion.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:21pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Mots /Anti microbial metals

    Thank you for your information.  I still will be using copper, in the ways I said.  It is better than what I have, now.  I used to copper plate objects with CuSO4 and a battery set up when a kid.  Fun.

    "Old Chemists Never Die, They Just Reach Equilibrium."  🐱🐱

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:31pm

    Linda T

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    RE: "wow Linda", and "And Anger too.."

    AKGrannyWGrit,

    You’re welcome. I’ve actually seen Richard Heinberg speak in a small setting a few years ago, with a room of people. In my experience, some awesome authors aren’t so great in person. When I was still in Santa Barbara, CA (moved away 11 years ago, I had an internal push that kept getting more and more insistent), I had the opportunity to also see Matthew Simmons speak twice on the same day before his passing. Also good live.

    suziegruber,

    Definitely. I would add anger with some fury too “for being inconvenienced” and “not getting what I want when I want it”/entitlement; denial, scapegoating and blaming, and bargaining; major depression and suicides because a lot of people will feel incapable or unwilling to change their lifestyles or expectations for the future as it becomes more obvious we have to change, just in case the virus wasn’t enough of a reality check; and acceptance. After COVID passes in an unknown amount of time (that darn fear of the unknown, loss of control, and fear of change), not only will our world be very different, but we will have generational PTSD and trauma, and more people will also have Pre-PTSD. I have also read from Carolyn Baker and others about Pre-PTSD becoming more of a “thing”, as we hopefully start to become more aware of the things headed our way. (Reminds me of the commercial with the train coming, man steps off the tracks, and you see a little girl standing there about to get clobbered.)

    I apologize, but I remember who and what thread the link for this article got posted, it’s pretty good, so I’m going to re-post it.

    COVID-19: We Won’t Go Back to Normal, Because Normal Was the Problem

    Linda

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:40pm

    Linda T

    Linda T

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    Re: Chris and Adam

    Helping Granny,

    Thank you for the compliment, even if nothing comes of it, I'm honored you would suggest it.

    Linda

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:42pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Jan / Sistership

    Well, you know, Jesus said we have to give up our families if we are to follow Him.  Most people cherry pick the Bible, just read the parts they want to agree with.  Not trying to push anything here.

    I too, have had conflicts with sister over the prepping issue.  She is one of the wealthy, and I suppose feels more insulated than me, with a kind of frugal, more simple life style.

    One thing I have found, prepping is a marathon deal.  Food and preps I did years ago, turned out to be not healthy or just wrong.  I have had continual tweaking of supplies and remedies and ideas over the years.  Not good in a panic situation.

    She lives in Salt Lake City, which is starting to grow corona cases.  I am wondering if I will receive an email in the future asking for prepping suggestions.  Or maybe a kidney.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 6:44pm

    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

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    Sputum and fecal swabs were positive weeks after pharyngeal swabs were negative 

    sputum and fecal swabs were positive weeks after pharyngeal swabs were negative

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 7:24pm

    suziegruber

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    This Doesn't Have To Lead To PTSD

    I really appreciate this conversation.  I want to point out that PTSD is never inevitable no matter the circumstances.  We have both an understanding of what leads to PTSD and Complex PTSD (they are different) and a wealth of people around the world who are highly trained and available to us to help us navigate and face the emotional impact of any difficult life event.  And many of them offer sessions on Zoom.

    I will use myself as an example here.  As I have alluded to in a couple of posts, about three weeks ago I had an unexpected medical event where I almost died.  It was an extreme case of Influenza A, and not Covid-19.  I spent three nights in the hospital and thankfully I am now mostly fully recovered.

    As soon as I regained consciousness in the ICU, I was aware of the possibility of developing PTSD from this event and also because I work in the field of shock trauma (PTSD) and relational trauma (Complex PTSD), I knew exactly what I needed to do to make sure that didn't happen.  I had to stay very present with all of what I was experiencing and I had to have a lot of emotional support and I knew I would need professional help.

    The most prominent symptom of developing PTSD that I had once I got home is that every time I was about to leave my house to go somewhere, I became fearful even though I had mostly physically recovered and in reality I was in a safe space.  I realized this was an imprint from being removed unconscious from my house by the paramedics.  If I had ignored or tried to suppress this symptom, it would have had a serious, chronic effect on the quality of my life.  Instead I worked through it with an expert in the field with very similar training to mine and I am happy to report that I now feel fine when I leave the house.

    I really, really encourage everyone to take the time to be with what you are experiencing right now even if it seems to make no sense.  This is what will keep you emotionally healthy and resilient.

    This isn't the time to just tell yourself you will tough it, that you can't go there because you are taking care of others and have to keep it together and that only weak people let themselves feel.

    If emotional preparedness has always been at the bottom of your prep list, this is a great opportunity to start.  If it all feels overwhelming, get help.  Many, many more people are working online now.

    I was able to turn my medical emergency into a positive experience because I faced some really tough stuff inside myself.  Covid offers many of us a similar opportunity if we take it.

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 7:33pm

    alanrgreenland

    alanrgreenland

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    Linda T. -- Excellent Book Recommendations!!

     

    I have most of the books you mentioned.  Love JMG and especially Carolyn Baker -- but you really have to be *ready* for Carolyn Baker's message; it is challenging, though absolutely vital.

    Be well, everybody.

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 7:46pm

    alanrgreenland

    alanrgreenland

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    Masks in the News

     

    On MSNBC tonight, on "All IN with Chris Hayes", the last item was a story about whether everyone should really be wearing masks.  Interestingly, the host (Chris Hayes) first mentioned that there was a rumor that the CDC was going to reverse itself on mask recommendation, and he was saying that studies show we should all be wearing masks, but then he asked his guest (a doctor; didn't get her name) whether that was really what we should be doing, and she basically toed the standard line that it won't really protect you and the hospitals need the masks more...  Which was disappointing.  But at least the topic was discussed, with the counter argument given some prominence.  Progress...

     

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:19pm

    Linda T

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    Re: This Doesn't Have To Lead To PTSD

    suziegruber,

    I also appreciate this conversation. Thank you for sharing your healing process.

    I can remember many times when I had massage clients on my table, when they would share with me their healing process or an awareness they had had, and feel vulnerable and safe enough to do so, I always felt so honored and touched. Quite profound sometimes. Thank you again.

    Linda

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:37pm

    Linda T

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    Linda T. -- Excellent Book Recommendations!!

    alanrgreenland,

    I agree, Carolyn’s message is challenging and vital right now. I don’t know if you read, or don’t, Kunstler’s blog postings on Mondays and Fridays, but his last two have been about the virus and the economy/markets. Have you read his “World Made by Hand” series?

    Today it was “People Get Ready”

    https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/people-get-ready/#more-12071'

    Last Friday it was about the markets and the virus, “Forced Liquidation”

    https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/forced-liquidation/#more-'

    Linda

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 8:45pm

    mikeandcarolpoe

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    Thank you for sharing these important insights!

    Gosh, where to start.  I, many years ago, experienced the crisis of the death of my child while under my care.  Crisis does leave an imprint if we do not understand how to respond to it wisely.  I see this trauma impacting my own daughter, a nurse and recovering from a respiratory illness, Covid and flu A& B neg.  Her sense of vulnerability is now coming to bear and I see it would help her to process this with someone of your expertise.  Thank you, I will encourage her to do so.  I have benefited much from seeking help and hope others will consider self care as utmost importance in order to cares for others they love.

    Thank you!

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  • Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:29pm

    susanmf

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    How do you think Australia is going? Flu tracker data

    WeeklyReport_202013_AU (3)

    Hey Chris

    Australia has been having a very strict testing policy (just eased off on criteria today), believing that they are catching all the cases by testing those who have travelled overseas, contact with those who have travelled overseas and with symptoms.

    This flu tracking (low numbers compared to the population) shows that for the two weeks shown, there were approx. 304 and 324 cases of fever and cough that were not presented to a GP or tested.  Those that attended a GP, 211 and 257, only a small % were tested for influenza or COVID19.

    Do you think this is risky practice, given how this disease easily spreads, with people being asymptomatic or mild symptoms?

    Thanks

    Susan

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  • Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 12:27am

    wildtravel

    wildtravel

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    Australia’ s Status

    On the question of how Australia is responding to the pandemic it’s a mixed bag.

    On the other specific Covid 19 questions, Chris’s almost daily videos since January are a treasure trove of information (asterixed * below).   The last 2 or 3 should get people up to speed on asymptomatic transmission.

    At the Commonwealth level the “don’t test, don’t tell”* phase of Australia’s response is ended as CoVid 19 has progressed “case, case, case cluster, cluster, (but not yet) BOOM”*.  In about a week or so we will begin “the hammer and the dance”*, at which time life as you know it will end.   The government is performing a balancing act with no happy endings, between “saving lives, maintaining the economy and overwhelming the hospitals”*.  This is all good.

    What is not good is the dangerous BS being peddled to the public about masks ( see earlier posts on Australia in this thread).  Chris recommends we should “#StayTheFuckHome”*, and there should be “#Masks4All”*.  Hope that helps.

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  • Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 2:08am

    Belmontl

    Belmontl

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    Posts: 38

    Michael Dowd - Post Doom

    I must put a plug in for my good friend Michael Dowd (also wrote Awarding winning book Thank God for Evolution) who with his biologist wife , Connie Barlow - has been on the road Crisscrossing North America for 15 straight years - giving more than 2500 talks.
    new website - with conservations with some of the leading thinkers in this field

    www.postdoom.com

    The single best book he recommends is the 1980 classic Overshoot by William Catton.

     

    Their Main site

    www.thegreatstory.com (org) is an amazing compendium of material

     

    lastly

    the brilliant Nate Hagens (google Reality 101 or his annual EArth day talk )

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  • Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 2:35pm

    jbuck

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    Breathing and Reading

    I woke up agitated this morning and had the feeling in my stomach that comes with anxiety.

    Here is a simplified breathing practice I use - Breath in fairly quickly (count 4) then draw out the exhale (count 8).  Doing that a few times helps me to ground that excess energy.

    Two notes:  I have taught this practice to my high school students over the years and have been thanked many times.  I have also encountered people who refuse to hear or even become hostile at the mention of a breathing practice as a solution to anything (my wife is one of them).  So if this has triggered anyone, I'm very sorry.

    I also use my breath as a model to remember that things arise, and things fall away.  Anxiety arises then becomes a problem if I attach to it.  If I am able not to attach to it, it falls away and the next moment arises, whatever that brings, and if I have attached to the anxiety, I'll never know.  (sounds great when I just write it like that - it is hard to initiate and maintain practice - remember to be kind to yourself along the way)

    On my reading list during down time - Mutual Aid: A Factor of Evolution by Peter Kropotkin.

    I also support structuring your day in some way.  I very easily fall into a "do it in a minute" spiral in which "a minute" never comes and days can slide by. (yes, I recognize depression)

    I also am staying away from the computer outside the times I've set aside to use it.  I realized I've been recreating the effect of main stream media. By viewing the same news over and over my brain starts to construct a problem bigger than what's actually being presented.  Since what's being presented is already serious, I don't need to amplify it, right?

    Peace and health!

    jeff

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  • Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 3:57pm

    ao

    ao

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    jbuck, i'm curious as to why your wife feels the way she does

    I've taught people breathing practice for many decades and have always said that if there was just one thing that I could teach humanity (from the standpoint of something physical) that would benefit the greatest number of people, it would be proper breathing and breath control.  Why is she opposed?

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  • Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 5:07pm

    jbuck

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    Breathing

    I can make a conjecture but she's really not interested in discussing it so I dropped it years ago.  I suspect it has to do with unresolved early childhood trauma and her commitment to what she has put in place to keep a lid on it all.  Her family is quite the cast of characters, many of whom follow this problem solving sequence - ignore the problem or if possible, acknowledge the problem and simply tolerate it, tacitly agreeing no solution is possible; if that fails, deny that it is a problem or even real; if that becomes impossible to maintain, flip wig and start an argument about something unrelated.  My wife is in MUCH better shape than that (which is why she lives here and not where her family is).  I think actually learning to relax can seem very scary in some situations.  Like I said, conjecture.

    I want to add that she is not the only person I've got this reaction from.  The very first time I can remember it happening was way back in the mid-90s.  (I practiced yoga and pranayama in the late 80s and occasionally since)  I was managing a youth hostel in Jo'Burg and a woman who was staying with us (just finished Peace Corps service) was super wound up and having a hard time - shallow, rapid breathing in the top of the chest, clear signs of constant anxiety, etc.  I said something like, it might help to take a deep breath, not flippantly or anything like that, with genuine concern.  She got super pissed and said, "I do not want to focus on my breath right now."  I didn't know how to respond so I just shut up.

    Maybe it's my approach.

    jeff

    btw - I totally agree that learning to breath well and to use breath in different ways (it's not just for gas exchange) could be of tremendous benefit to almost everyone.  And it is free of any monetary entanglements - making it impossible to profit from, so I don't expect to see it taking the world by storm any time soon ... sadly.

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  • Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 5:33pm

    jbuck

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    Meant to mention

    Sorry for the barrage -

    Maybe this has been mentioned; I stepped away for a few days.  It occurred to me yesterday that the temperatures mentioned for sterilizing masks can be achieved in a solar oven if you prepped one of those.  I've played with them but, unfortunately never pulled the trigger on a new one.  They seem expensive to me so I always thought I'd make one.

    Which brings me to all of us new home schoolers (I have a 15 year old).  If you have a box, a piece of glass and a thermometer, think of a testable question and play. (here's an extensive scaffold for creating experiments and info about questions)

    I'm a teacher and on the elected school leadership team.  This morning in a Zoom meeting (Zoom is going to end up doing very well from all of this) I mentioned my thought that we have an opportunity to step back from "accountability" oriented practices and try to regain contact with our native curiosity.  I went on to point out that some people have decided to talk about mask shortages, blame whomever they love to hate, and talk about how somebody needs to do something.  Another group of people got out their sewing machines and started making masks.  I want to be like the second group.

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  • Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 6:48pm

    ao

    ao

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    jeff, you're probably right about your wife

    I studied a broad range of somatic therapies and became certified in several of them (i.e. within the field of somatics) and have always been very interested in the mind-body connection.  For some people, letting go and relaxing is indeed very scary.  A certain amount of protective muscular "armoring" gives them a sense of security and anything or anyone that threatens to strip it away, especially if it is sudden, can be perceived as threatening and can induce emotional responses ranging from withdrawal to anger and aggression.  The Peace Corps volunteer undoubted fell fully into the latter category.  It's almost akin to someone abruptly proposing to suddenly strip all their clothing off.  It can be quite frightening.

    A variety of strategies can be used to overcome this fear and introduce the concept in a manner that feels safe to them.  Depending upon the individual, I would often try and introduce breathing as a concept that I personally found helpful (opening up about your own personal vulnerabilities  build a level of rapport) and as a life skill that can give them more control, not less.  I'd use everything from the Trager Approach to create a sensory contrast between two sides of the body (starting with something safe like the hands or arms) to the Feldenkrais Method, exploring options for breath amplitude, duration, rhythm, location, effort, inhalation vs. exhalation emphasis, balance, permeation, coordination with movement, etc., etc.  I'd make it into an exploratory game where they could feel the difference between tension and relaxation, experience pleasure and even joy from the freedom of movement relaxation brings, experience feeling better than they ever felt before, and recognize how it can empower them, giving them a newfound sense of power and control (rather than depriving them of that).

    But the paradox of the situation is that the people who need it the most are often the ones that recognize their need the least, are the most antagonistic towards change, and are the most likely to experience an emotional reaction in opposition to it.  That's what made teaching it interesting and an intellectual challenge.

    I personally found the breathing approaches of the Taoists (water method) and of the Russian Systema practitioners to be the most valuable but different strokes for different folks.  That's probably just a reflection of my interest in martial arts and practical dynamic application of breathing methodology.

    And you're right.  Because it's free and no one can profit hugely from it and because it's likely to take revenue away from everything from pharmaceutical companies to certain health professionals, it's unlike to be heavily promoted.  But people have made a living from it.  For example, I attended classes given by Carola Speads (the author of Ways To Better Breathing and a student of Elsa Gindler) in NYC and they were always full, with everyone from performing artists (actors. dancers, and musicians) to average folks looking to overcome stress and anxiety issues.  Carola is quoted in the following article:

    Mastering the Breath: The Most Powerful Life Hack There Is

    Maybe you could leave this article up on your computer screen for your wife to see when you're not around.  You never know .... 🙂

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  • Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - 11:45am

    JPetros

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    Droplets analysıs

    Check this out guys Proof that mask can really make the dıfference

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBvFkQizTT4

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  • Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - 12:18pm

    DMS

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    Droplet Analysis YT Link. Thanks!

    Awesome. I was looking for this vid since PP included it in their presentation.

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  • Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - 12:23pm

    DMS

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    Masks with Valves (Valves usually work in 1 direction)

    Hey NZS, I believe that the valves in masks only work in one direction (exhalation) similar to the ones in respirators like the ones you use for painting.  When you breathe in, the air is filtered through the material and when you exhale the valve is activated to allow the air to escape.

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  • Fri, Apr 03, 2020 - 8:25am

    Michel Mamula

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    How reliable are the time and heat levels for killing this particular virus?

    Does anyone know how reliable are the timings and heat levels for mask disinfection? Just came across this article, it seems this particular strain might require different heat levels/time than original SARS?
    https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/g5x9z7/the-guy-who-helped-invent-the-n95-mask-thinks-hes-found-a-way-to-clean-and-reuse-them

    It seems further tests are needed to confirm by what levels/time this virus is killed?

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  • Tue, Apr 07, 2020 - 11:23am

    Cia

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    Mask with a valve better

    The N95 or 100 mask protects the wearer the best and permits enough filtered air flow that you can breathe relatively comfortably. It’s what we’re using. But it released the air that you exhale. I’m not worried about that. The surgical mask is to protect others from infected air which you exhale, but it also offers a barrier that catches infected airborne droplets. Homemade masks, even bandanas, are maybe 75% effective, give or take and offer a barrier. Only the N95 protects against aerosolized virus, but if you stay well back from people at the store, I think any kind of mask is satisfactory. And being exposed to a low dose of the virus may give you subclinical immunity.

    We bought N95 masks from China on February 22, on Amazon. Doctors still had their choice at that time. I think our not getting coronavirus and not crashing the hospitals is an excellent reason for us to wear ours without guilt.

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  • Tue, Apr 07, 2020 - 12:27pm

    dtrammel

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    2003 Paper on SARs Give Heat/Temp Data

    Michel you can read this paper from 2003, where they tested heat on sterilizing masks exposed to SARs. We've been using the ball park of 170F for 30 minutes as the standard because most kitchen ovens have that as their lowest setting. If you do use this method, do a test with your mask and your oven for safety. Don't use a toaster oven, they don't appear to have consistent heat.

    From the link you gave, looks like they are going to test it with the Covid19 virus. I expect the temperatures will be close if not the same.

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  • Mon, Apr 13, 2020 - 9:28pm

    sofistek

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    Posts: 728

    Yes but

    With stories about reinfection coming out of China, Japan and South Korea we need more than a "recovered" badge and probably more than a "vaccinated" badge, especially as antibodies may not offer full or lasting protection. In the second clip, universal daily testing offers more certainty but I'm sure not all regions of all countries would find this practical or affordable.

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  • Tue, Apr 14, 2020 - 4:11am

    Lightning17

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    Not sure this isn't misleading

    I believe the stories to be misleading.  Recovered people later test positive for the virus. I have not yet seen that they are again infectious or sickened.  Testing positive merely means some level of RNA is present...it could be an artifact of the test, benign bits of RNA or just a false positive.

    I believe this to be scaremongering .....be afraid....submit to authority....be afraid.   By the way....big Pharma and Government Authoritarians want a vaccine for $ and control.

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  • Wed, Apr 15, 2020 - 2:09pm

    sofistek

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    How do we know it's misleading?

    Well, we don't. As I understand it, we simply don't know what is causing this. If you do know, Lightning17, it would be helpful if you posted that information.

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