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    Why Common Knowledge Changes The World

    The private understanding that we're in trouble is suddenly becoming realized by the public
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 16, 2019, 4:03 PM

For those paying attention, there have been plenty of signs indicating that financial asset prices are dangerously overvalued and that the decade-long economic expansion is reversing towards recession.

But the mainstream — until just recently — has refused to see this.

Over most of 2019, investors have remained willing to push stocks, bonds and real estate to record prices. And the Federal Reserve, the Trump administration and the media have boasted about America’s “strong economy” on a weekly basis.

But suddenly, the herd has become skittish.

It’s not panicking (yet). But a lot of the predominant investor euphoria and complacency has vanished, along with more than a $trillion in market value as stocks have slid from their July highs.

Why?

Well, it’s a matter of private knowledge becoming common knowledge. An understanding that until recently was shared only by a small percentage of people is now starting to be adopted by the masses.

This is a very powerful transformation that often leads to swift changes in the status quo. Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory explains this phenomenon very well:

The core dynamic of the Common Knowledge Game is this: how does private knowledge become  not public knowledge  but common knowledgeCommon knowledge is something that we all believe everyone else believes. Common knowledge is usually also public knowledge, but it doesn’t have to be. It may still be private information, locked inside our own heads. But so long as we believe that everyone else believes this trapped piece of private information, that’s enough for it to become common knowledge.

The reason this dynamic — the transformation of private knowledge into common knowledge  is so important is that the social behavior of individuals does not change on the basis of private knowledge, no matter how pervasive it might be. Even if everyone in the world believes a certain piece of private information, no one will alter their behavior. Behavior changes ONLY when we believe that everyone else believes the information. THAT’S what changes behavior. And when that transition to common knowledge happens, behavior changes fast.

The classic example of this is the fable of The Emperor’s New Clothes. Everyone in the teeming crowd possesses the same private information — the Emperor is walking around as naked as a jaybird. But no one’s behavior changes just because the private information is ubiquitous. Nor would behavior change just because a couple of people whisper their doubts to each other, creating pockets of public knowledge that the Emperor is naked. No, the only thing that changes behavior is when the little girl (what game theory would call a Missionary) announces the Emperor’s nudity loudly enough so that the entire crowd believes that everyone else in the crowd heard the news. That’s when behavior changes.

(source)

Hunt uses this private-to-common knowledge transition to explain the sudden fall of previously ‘untouchable’ power brokers such as Harvey Weinstein and Jeffrey Epstein. For decades, these abusers could get away with their crimes because the sins were only recognized by a social minitory. But once the world became aware, there was no way push them back into the shadows.

Recession Risk Suddenly Becoming ‘Common Knowledge’

In the case of today’s financial markets, few people have been willing to challenge their faith in the current expansion (now the longest in history). The ten-year ride has been easy, comfortable and dependably profitable.

They’ve been able to ignore reams of charts and data over the years warning that the lofty asset valuations weren’t supported by underlying fundamentals. What do those doomers know anyways? Just look at how well my FANG stocks keep doing!

But this week, two developments occurred that were too obvious for the complacent masses to ignore.

First, the US Treasury yield curve achieved full inversion. On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below the yield on the two-year for the first time since 2007.

Why is this a big enough deal to spook the majority of investors?

Because an inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1955:

Chart - history of inverted yield curve

And this isn’t the only serious recession indicator received this week. Those thinking the US economy is too strong to succumb to slowing economic growth need look only as far as Europe, where Germany, by far the largest economy in the EU, just announced that it experienced negative growth in Q2:

Germany's economy shrinks by 0.1% in Q2 2019

If Germany and the rest of the EU slide into recession — along with other major countries like Brazil, Mexico, the UK, South Korea and Russia, which are all facing similar risk — will there be enough demand to keep the US out of one as well?

More and more folks are beginning to have serious doubts. As they should.

This newly-accepted “common knowledge” regarding recession risk goes far in explaining why the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve failed to goose the financial markets higher as hoped. Finally, a critical mass of investors is beginning to realize that more cheap debt can’t solve the problems facing a global economy already drowning in debt.

With this loss of faith in the Fed’s omnipotence, the continued ability to maintain today’s near-record asset prices gets thrown seriously into question.

What Other Knowledge Is Suddenly Becoming ‘Common’?

Doubt breeds more doubts.

And there are many strings of ‘conventional’ wisdom that are unravelling fast when pulled on.

Rotten Apple?

Take Apple, as an example. For years, it has been celebrated as an engine of technological innovation. And its stock has been a bulletproof juggernaut; marching higher every year since 2009.

But Apple hasn’t released a game-changing product since the iPhone, which debuted back in 2006. And now, with global smartphone saturation and slowing economies, iPhone sales have dropped for the past 3 consecutive quarters.

The company is coasting on its bygone success. Without another truly transformative product launch (sorry, air pods and smart watches aren’t going to cut it), overall revenues will continue shrinking.

Investors, whose shares currently support Apple’s nearly $1 trillion market cap, haven’t all gotten the memo yet. But when enough of them do, expect this long-time darling stock to drop hard.

Low inflation?

The world’s central banks have justified their years of intervention as being necessary because inflation is “too low”.

But is it really?

Anyone who needs to eat, pay for a roof over their head, visit the doctor, educate their kids, or drive anywhere knows that the true cost of living is increasing at a far faster rate than the government’s official <2% calculation.

Ben Hunt, the progenitor of our above Common Knowledge Theory, predicts this as the next smokescreen to dissipate:

There’s a lot of ubiquitous private information about powerful people and powerful ideas trapped in the crowd today, just waiting for a Missionary to release it as common knowledge. The more powerful the person or the idea to be brought low, the bigger the Missionary (and platform) required. But nothing’s too big, and once the common knowledge is created, behavior changes fast. My pick for the big idea that gets taken down? The idea that inflation is dead. We all know it’s not true. We all know in our own heads that everything is more expensive today, from rent to transportation to food to iPhones. But it’s not common knowledge. Each of us may believe that inflation walks among us, but none of us believes that everyone else believes that inflation is here.

Not yet. But we’re only one big Missionary statement away.

Trouble In China?

Many pundits see the raging trade war between the US and China as a pitched match between equal adversaries.

But those who have visited and done business inside the country for many years see China in a far weaker position than is customarily appreciated or portrayed.

Jim Rickards explains how China is much more of a paper tiger than realized. It’s Achilles Heel of social unrest is being exacerbated by the trade war (see: Hong Kong protests) in ways that the communist government can’t easily quell.

Permanent loss of trade is happening as manufacturing switches to other countries, at a time when capital outflows are increasing and Chinese stocks and real estate prices are falling. Meanwhile, the debt bomb inside China is staggering relative to the US, and it’s finally nearing its explosion point.

An implosion of China’s economy, perhaps coupled with serious social distemper, is a new — previously unthinkable — factor the world is suddenly realizing it needs to take into account.

Time Is Short

As Ben Hunt instructs:

Behavior changes ONLY when we believe that everyone else believes the information. THAT’S what changes behavior. And when that transition to common knowledge happens, behavior changes fast.

Amidst the market volatility this week, we issued an advisory to take action.

We reminded readers that market tops are processes. They occur over a long time.

But market corrections are events. They tend to happen suddenly and violently. If you’re not positioned for them in advance, there’s usually no time to react once they’re underway.

With the risks of recession quickly becoming common knowledge amongst the mainstream, we declare the time for planning is over. It’s now time to act, to get your advanced positioning in place. Because events are going to start happening fast, as Ben Hunt warns.

Specifically, we urge you to strongly consider taking the following steps in your portfolio (each one below links to a helpful primer with guidance):

  1. Moving to cash
  2. Adding gold & silver
  3. Hedging against a market downturn
  4. Investing for cash flow
  5. Developing resilience beyond your money

We’re loud advocates of taking these steps while working with a professional financial advisor who understands and appreciates the risks that are in play. There aren’t many out there who do, but their assistance in helping you make well-informed decisions can be extremely valuable.

Earlier this week we showed exactly how valuable this can be, providing an example of how one such advisor protected (and grew) client accounts while the S&P 500 dropped -5.4% from its July highs.

So if you have similar goals for your money — if, you place a higher priority on return OF capital vs return ON capital during this time of heightened risk — then we sure hope you’ve already positioned your portfolio wisely for the future you see coming.

If not — and we know from the emails we receive that many of you still have not — it’s not too late. But it may be very soon. Time looks to be getting very, very short.

Put your plan into action. If you don’t have your plan finalized yet, meet with a good professional advisor asap. And if you’re having trouble finding a good one, consider scheduling a portfolio review with the advisor endorsed by Peak Prosperity (it’s completely free)

Just don’t delay.

Sentiment is finally breaking as critical but previously-private knowledge is quickly becoming “common”.

Once it breaks fully, the ride downward will likely be very sharp, quick and brutal for everyone caught unprepared.

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46 Comments

  • Fri, Aug 16, 2019 - 7:04pm

    #1

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

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    One Element Moving to Common Knowledge

    I am seeing widespread skepticism about the Epstein “suicide” as a catalyst for many to move into the camp that would previously have been derided as “conspiracy theorizing.”  You would have to be brain dead to fail to at least suspect murder.

    There also seems to be a dawning of a common knowledge that official investigations and the authoritative publications of the elite (NYT, WaPo, WSJ) may not always be truthful.  The breaking of this confidence could be abrupt and dramatic also.

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 3:15am

    #2

    SingleSpeak

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    We have confirmation that it was murder

    Reports by MSM that the investigation has proven Epstein committed suicide has got me wondering one thing. Will we ever find out who murdered him? 😉

    SS

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 7:08am

    #3

    Chris Martenson

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    Such An Important Insight

    I read Ben Hunt’s writing the minute it is released.  Sometimes I read his pieces 2x or more to let them really sink in.

    The good news, for me, is that he’s booked to come on our podcast as a Featured Voices guest.  I’m really looking forward to that.

    This idea of “common knowledge” is one such idea that jumped from his brain into mine.  It’s rattled around in there ever since and it’s got a wonderful way of explaining/framing things.

    For example, it’s still private knowledge that something really doesn’t add up about the official story of 9/11.  Fused and melted concrete in the basement of building 6?

    That even has melted and fused gun steel (i.e. hardened, high temp alloys) embedded within it from the ATF weapons stored in the basement?

    Where even the placard explains that the “fire temperatures were so intense that concrete melted like lava around anything in its path.”

    Weird, right?  Especially because building 6 wasn’t hit by any planes so there wasn’t any of that magic, super-high temperature jet fuel to confuse the matter (spoiler alert, jet fuel cannot get even remotely hot enough to cause such an artifact.)

    Doubly weird because the best studies of concrete at high temperatures were conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratories.  Here’s what they say about things:

    A good summary of the degradation reactions that occur in Portland cement concrete is provided in Ref. 4. Upon first heating, substantial water evaporation occurs from the larger pores close to the concrete surface.

    Then, from 100°C onward, the evaporation proceeds at a faster rate with water being expelled from concrete near the surface as a result of above-atmospheric vapor pressure (i.e., steam flow). At 120°C the expulsion of water physically bound in the smaller pores, or chemically combined, initiates and continues up to about 500°C where the process is essentially complete.

    From 30°C to 300°C, in conjunction with evaporation, dehydration of the hardened cement paste occurs (first stage) with the maximum rate of dehydration occurring at about 180°C.

    In the temperature range from 450°C to 550°C there is decomposition of the portlandite [i.e., Ca(OH)2 → CaO + H2O) (Ref. 12)]. At 570°C the α → β inversion of quartz takes place with the transformation being endothermic and reversible. A further process of decomposition of the hardened cement paste takes place between 600°C and 700°C with the decomposition of the calcium-silicatehydrate phases and formation of β-C2S.

    Between 600°C and 900°C the limestone begins to undergo decarbonation (i.e., CaCO3 → CaO + CO2). The rate of decomposition and the temperature at which it occurs are not only dependent on temperature and pressure, but also by the content of SiO2 present in the limestone.

    Above 1200°C and up to 1300°C, some components of the concrete begin to melt. Above 1300°C to 1400°C concrete exists in the form of a melt. Apparently liquifaction of the concrete commences with melting of the hardened cement paste followed by melting of the aggregates.

    https://info.ornl.gov/sites/publications/files/Pub1043.pdf

    I pasted that whole section because I love the science of it all.  Concrete goes through many complex changes as it is heated, first driving off the bound water, expanding, weakening, spalling and crumbling, but then finally melting and refusing.

    It doesn’t take that last step until you get above 1200 degrees Centigrade.

    I would very politely and gently suggest that it is very widely held private knowledge among fire inspectors that basement fires do not ever get anywhere close to such a temperature.  Ever.  They are poorly oxygenated as a matter of course which means theoretical max temps are never approached let alone achieved.

    Regardless, the usual things you find in office buildings cannot achieve those temps under ideal conditions.

    Which means it is widely help private knowledge among all sorts of scientifically and professionally minded people that something else besides the official explanation of a very hot office fire has to be entertained and explored if one has any desire to get closer to the truth.

    And all the evidence you need to arrive at this conclusion is on public display at the 9/11 museum.  It’s right there to be seen by as many private ‘eyes’ as care to go.  For some reason there’s no concern that its display might result in an outbreak of common knowledge.

    I go into all this simply to raise the question; what else is hiding in plain sight, safely tucked away in your private knowledge, but which is not yet common knowledge?

    I submit the following are all waiting to erupt into common view:

    • The US justice system is corrupt through and through
    • Markets are rigged
    • Food companies purposely hook people on foods that make them ill
    • Chemicals, such as neonicotinoids, are not fully tested before their deployment and that quite often damaging test results are kept hidden in corporate vaults.
    • The US and its military are not actually concerned about human rights or democracy and instead is a modern version of the British redcoats mainly protecting trade and other business interests.

    I think part of the reason that such damaging revelations remain as private knowledge is because moving them into common knowledge requires the destruction of closely held belief systems.

    Again, nature has provided strong protections to maintaining existing belief systems.  Maybe it’s just too hard or expensive to alter them?

    Whatever the reason, the more central the belief system the more carefully it’s guarded, all the way to the point that you can put hard data, solid evidence right into a public display case with confidence knowing that it will not cause, by itself, any movement towards belief-shattering common knowledge.

    The beliefs being guarded are huge; things like:

    • Faith in authority
    • A belief in the fundamental goodness of people
    • Believing that your country is being both moral and good
    • Bedrock knowledge that the justice system is blind and fair

    It’s faaaar easier to live day to day walking around believing these things are true.

    To lose faith in these things means you squint at every package label of food wondering what sorts of admitted or hidden toxins might be lurking within.

    It means questioning every news release, such as everything surrounding the Epstein “suicide” (in quotes because it has been reported that ‘multiple bones in his neck were broken, among which was the hyoid’ … yeah, right, got it…ummmm…wait…back up…which other bones?)

    It means googling your medical symptoms because you don’t fully trust the doctor’s opinion and doubting the prescriptions given.

    I get it.  All of that is definitely not as easy as trusting the basic systems that govern and support our lives.

    The biggest fallacy of them all, the biggest belief system that is increasingly under attack in both private and common knowledge, is the idea of perpetual exponential economic growth.

    The climate scientists are distraught with their private knowledge.  The public is catching on.  The keepers of the system are busy deflecting attention and delaying the inevitable.

    But it won’t matter.  Eventually the reality catches up.  Private knowledge becomes common knowledge and then everything changes all at once.

    All of which brings me to my conclusions;  Think for yourself.  Make up your own mind.  Be secure in your ability to think for yourself.

    And my motto: I’d rather be a year early than a day late.

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 8:20am

    #4
    richcabot

    richcabot

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    Hindsight is 2020

    The German GDP chart is a prime example.  They were at -0.1% in late 2018.  It turned around for two more quarters before going negative again.  This one may be the real tipping point, or might not.  How could you tell last time that it was going to turn around?  The same thing is true of the yield curve inversions.  Though the yield curve inverted before every prior recession, the real question is has it ever inverted and not been followed by a recession?  If the red circles on the yield curve graph show the inversions, look at the huge variability between when they occur and when the recessions start.

    I’m not saying that it isn’t prudent to be prepared.  I’m just saying that there is no magic advance indicator.

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 8:24am

    #5
    richcabot

    richcabot

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    9/11 factual information

    Anyone who wants to look at the purely scientific issues around 9/11 should go to https://www.ae911truth.org/  They are professional architects and engineers who document and explain the issues like melted concrete.

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 8:35am

    #6
    richcabot

    richcabot

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    Russian economy

    Is the Russian economy really in the dire straits that your reference claims or is it typical Washington Post fake news?  The article says “Russia has also tried to build up its government cash reserves, which has left little money for stimulus.”  It seems like that would provide more money for stimulus in the future when they really need it.  Unlike the US, Russia is not mired in debt.  Thanks to US sanctions they have been forced to make their economy mush more self contained than they used to be and, I think, more that most other countries.  They are energy self sufficient and don’t rely on money losing fracking to do it.  Farm output has grown enough to make them a food exporter.

    I’d love to see an analysis of their economy from an unbiased source.

    I believe that when our ability to sanction anyone we don’t like evaporates, which it must someday, investment will flow into Russia in droves.

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 10:11am

    Reply to #3
    TechGuy

    TechGuy

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    Melted Gun safes

    “That even has melted and fused gun steel (i.e. hardened, high temp alloys) embedded within it from the ATF weapons stored in the basement?”

    All of the building use NatGas for heating & domestic hot water. When those building collapsed NatGas lines were ruptured and ignited. Most large buildings also have genset to provide power for lighting and to run the elevations, Usually these are fueled using large diesel storage tanks with a few thousand gallons of diesel. These are typically stored at ground level or in the basement.

    I think your are reaching way out there to make a case that does not really exist. The real conspiracy is that the FBI Was warned by at least one flight school & never bothered to investigate. Nor did the CIA or NSA do its job.  FBI, CIA, & NSA are keystone cops, never doing anything but demanding big $$$ to do nothing. At best they are blackmail artists to keep politicians and large companies under their grip. The FBI has been blackmailing politicians since its inception with J Edar Hoover casting nets to ensnare everyone it deems a threat to the agency or its agendas.

     

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 12:37pm

    #7
    skipr

    skipr

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    magic

    ALL hydrocarbons can not melt steel  Take a propane torch and try melting a paper clip.  Let us know how that goes.

    Magic jet fuel is a good.one.  You need to add magic bullets, magic hangman’s noose, magic Koch brother climate science, magic smoking is good for your digestion science, magic money and economy.

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 1:33pm

    #8
    KathyP

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    Suppressing the Missionaries

    It takes a lot of effort to keep the voices of the “missionaries” from being heard.  Just look at the push back against Tulsi Gabbard’s questioning endless wars in the Middle East.

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 4:58pm

    Reply to #6
    CrLaan

    CrLaan

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    https://www.hortidaily.com/article/6040206/russia-agrokultura-group-to-expand-again/ just aan example. It’s probably the beginning. In the Netherlands it will take billions of investements in windmills and PV (plus Russian gaz).

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  • Sat, Aug 17, 2019 - 6:16pm

    Reply to #3

    Chris Martenson

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    I'm Very Confident...

    I think your are reaching way out there to make a case that does not really exist.

    Oh, goodness, we’re miles apart on this one.

    My conclusions are rooted in materials science, and quite a lot of it.  Perhaps it’s  all the chemistry (Inorganic, Organic, and Biochem) and physics in my background.

    This is just material science.  If you happen to have other data or results at your  disposal, I am all ears and have a wide open mind.

    I’ve also put a fair amount into it and would be both delighted and surprised if you had some new data to add and I would happily consider it.

    To me the materials science angle is the most robust, easily defended and explored angle.

    Trundling off into what the FBI did or did not do is actually very far down my list of oddities to explore, resting as it does on trying to back-interpret the motivations of gigantic bureaucracies.   Seems easier and more direct to point out things that I can grasp scientifically as being highly improbable, if not impossible.

     

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 5:02am

    #9
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

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    I too am confident

    but on different grounds.

    These grounds are simply that after the 9/11 Commission of Inquiry has done its work — and I will assume that it did the best it could with what it was given — both of the co-chairmen co-authored a book in which they said that the Commission had been set up to fail. I heard and saw one of them say this on a Canadian TV show.

    The Commission’s legal counsel agreed with them. One of the Commissioners resigned during the course of the Inquiry, complaining about the obstructive and uncooperative behaviour of the White House and government departments and the like.

    It is an extraordinary thing for these government appointees to have criticised their own government in such strong terms, and yet few paid them any attention.

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 9:21am

    Reply to #9
    Cornelius999

    Cornelius999

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    Paradigm

    In ” science ” it’s been called ” a new paradigm.”

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 10:43am

    Reply to #3
    TechGuy

    TechGuy

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    Re:I'm Very Confident.

    Sorry Chris,

    My guess is that you have not physically inspected the building & probably don’t have access to all of the reports created by various inspectors insurance companies. I presume if there was foul play (ie building was deliberately destroyed) that the insurance companies would have presented this information in order to avoid paying out  hundred of millions to bullions, in insurance claims.

    You cannot possible provide connection unless you have access to all of the information available. I don’t believe you are applying a scientific analysis needed to come to valid conclusion.

    “I’ve also put a fair amount into it and would be both delighted and surprised if you had some new data to add and I would happily consider it.”

    I don’t have any data. I am just very skeptical that the gov’t would deliberately destroyed a building to cover up evidence when it could have done the same with much less destruction. ie there is no reason to blow up a safe, when you already have the combinati0n.

    The whole affair of WTC 7 collapse is because a reporter mis-understood an emergency responder radio call “Pull Building 7” The radio call was “Pull out of Building 7 because its collapsing”: Warning Emergency responders to evacuate from the area near WTC 7 before it collapses on them. I am sure the radio call was difficult to hear as probably the responder issuing the warning, was on a handheld radio and likely in a noise location.

    If you recall the scene during the aftermath, those building fires burned for about a month. I was working in New York at the time and could see the smoke pouring out from about 25 miles away from the Tappen Zee bridge (Near white plains, NY) for weeks.

    Its possible if the temperatures were hot enough that steam could have supplied the oxygen needed for the fire. Obviously if these fire were burning for weeks it had to be getting an external source of oxygen to burn for that long. No way would any chemical oxidizer (ie thermite) would have burned for weeks. It would have been spent in a matter of minutes to seconds.

     

     

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 1:14pm

    Reply to #3

    Pipyman

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    Thanks Chris

    excellent and spot on. I had a personal “aha” moment yesterday along these lines. A doctor was trying to convince me to permit them to vaccinate my daughter to the schedule. Having done my own research and being privy to info that just doesn’t seem to be readily available I declined. My comment to the doctor was “look, trust has been lost, I didn’t do that, you didn’t do that, but here we stand”. That really does sum it up for me, I have to question everything because I just don’t know how to trust an overtly corrupt and, in many ways, insane system and narrative. Dangerous times…..

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 1:28pm

    Reply to #3

    Pipyman

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    Funny

    i didn’t read any speculation from Chris pertaining to motives or “who done it”; just, his interpretation of the physical evidence we’re not supposed to know about in relation to the official conspiracy theory.

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 3:11pm

    #10
    skipr

    skipr

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    physical inspection

    I did not physically inspect the WTC after 911, but I did inspect the damage in several Northridge CA steel frame buildings after the city’s 7.0 earthquake in 1994.  There were weld failures everywhere, but not one building collapsed, much less collapsed symmetrically at free fall, due to the large factor of safety used in their design, which the WTC also used.  I got involved with several civil engineers (I’m more diversified) that were analyzing these failures since I had access to the state-of-the-art finite element program ANSYS.  They came up with a novel non-intuitive design modification described here:

    https://www.aisc.org/globalassets/modern-steel/archives/1997/03/1997v03_proprietary_designs.pdf

    The smoking gun for the WTC 7 demolition was it’s symmetric collapse at free fall acceleration.  The only way that could happen is for the entire solid steel structure to be converted to the structural equivalent of air in a millisecond.  That has never happened during real office fires (NIST concluded that it did during 911) but always happens during controlled demolitions.

    As far as the fires go, thermite can burn underwater and in a vacuum since it has its own oxidizer, just like solid fuel rockets.  There is a peer reviewed scientific paper of the analysis of the unburned nano-thermite found in the dust.  That thermite was actually more energetic than known military grade ones.  Tons of molten steel was pulled out of the basement for months.  Its thermal inertia is what produced all of that steam.

    The government would never blow up the WTC?  Get real.  Look up Operation Northwoods on the web.  The PDF of that declassified top secret document shows how the Pentagon brass planned to blow up a passenger aircraft over Cuba in order to justify the invasion back in the 60s.  They even described how they would switch an actual passenger plane with a dummy.  Sound familiar?  Luckily JFK killed that plan.  I could go on and on and on…….

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 4:42pm

    Reply to #3

    Rector

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    13+

    Case Closed Then

    Tech guy,

    Your explanation is completely sufficient for me.  Clearly, insurance company investigators would have proven foul play in order to prevent a large claim payout.  Also, because no one has all the data on the incident, no one could ever know anything conclusive about the matter.  Except of course the official story – which can be believed fully without “access to all the information available”.  Especially if one were to personally witness smoke from 25 miles away – for weeks.  Thank you for putting the whole matter to bed for me and showing me how limited my thinking has been all this time.

     

    Rector

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 5:33pm

    #11
    Charles Showers

    Charles Showers

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    Behaviour change happens fast once a tipping point is reached - classic video example

    The discussion on common knowledge and private knowledge reminded me of this classic human behaviour video, which graphically shows the exact same process. The key here is to achnowledge the importance of being the second followers, or to relate to this article being the second round of people vocalising to make the private knowledge, common knowledge.

     

    When change comes, it comes fast, and it is a comin’!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ

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  • Sun, Aug 18, 2019 - 10:37pm

    Reply to #3
    Eric

    Eric

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    Perception=Reality

    I think the most critical foundation of society today is that Perception is Reality… 

    …and your reality is constructed from what you perceive…

    If you can become the master of perception, you can become the master of reality. It is the ability to hide in plain sight. Think about how anything is truly genuine nowadays. Especially with social media outlets.. if you have thousands of followers you must be important, smart, talented, etc. But in reality you could be really an average joe.

    Our whole monetary system’s foundation is perception. The entire system.

    Our whole political system, again all on perception.

    They don’t really have to have control on actually anything physical, they just need control of your perception. The entire subject of reality is really fascinating in itself. What truly is our reality?

    We’re far beyond “1984” than we ever imagined. Critical thinking is a conspiracy itself. We were always told to think outside the box in school, but they have control over that “box.”

    “There is a policeman inside all our heads. He must be destroyed.”

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 12:13am

    Reply to #3

    davefairtex

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    perception creates reality

    Eric-

    Here’s an additional point that goes along with your thesis.  Within your body, your perception actually creates your reality.

    If you perceive that a tiger is about to attack you, your belief will cause your body to release an avalanche of chemicals that shuts down your immune, regenerative, and digestion systems in order to provide more energy to your muscles.

    After all, if a tiger attacks, whatever immune system issues you might have can wait – if you fail to beat off the tiger, any infection you might have will be the tiger’s problem, not yours.

    So the body has evolved to respond – and change – according to your perception of reality.

    After understanding all of this, I stopped playing video games.  The games these days do a very good job of simulating attacks, and I could tell that my body responded appropriately – by shutting down half the systems of my body in order to prepare me to fight.  The games weren’t as stressful as (say) a martial arts competition, or a real life confrontation, but they made up for it by presenting simulated life & death threats for a very large number of hours.

    You want to have good skin, digestion, and immune system?  Probably best not to play video games.

    All those Presidents get white hair during their time in office.  That’s because they perceive that they are constantly in a threatening situation.

    What you perceive externally ends up creating your internal reality.

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 5:41am

    Reply to #6
    Mark Boland

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    I agree.  Additionally, the Russians are a strong people with tribal knowledge for transitioning to a more simple, family, economy. Juxtaposed to the US where an iteration of cable TV could put us in a tailspin!

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 7:09am

    Reply to #11

    Chris Martenson

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    Best video on Leadership!

    The discussion on common knowledge and private knowledge reminded me of this classic human behaviour video, which graphically shows the exact same process. The key here is to acknowledge the importance of being the second followers, or to relate to this article being the second round of people vocalising to make the private knowledge, common knowledge.

    I love this video.  Classic!

    Thanks for posting.  🙂

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 8:13am

    Reply to #3

    Chris Martenson

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    Re: Re: I'm very confident

    Sorry Chris,

    My guess is that you have not physically inspected the building & probably don’t have access to all of the reports created by various inspectors insurance companies. I presume if there was foul play (ie building was deliberately destroyed) that the insurance companies would have presented this information in order to avoid paying out  hundred of millions to bullions, in insurance claims.

    I don’t have to inspect the buildings.  I can look at the concrete blob fused with metal and conclude, without any doubt whatsoever, that a temperature in excess of 1,300 C was achieved.  And not just for a second or minute, but long enough to cause these artifacts.

    Whether I personally witnessed them in the destroyed basements myself or see them in a display case doesn’t change anything.  So I’m really not sure why it’s important to you that I went and saw them first hand in the building?

    Also, you then go on to ascribe motivations and actions of insurance companies.  That’s outside of my wheelhouse, and I’ll leave it to others to figure out why large corporations and other governmental entities behave they way they do.

    You cannot possible provide connection unless you have access to all of the information available. I don’t believe you are applying a scientific analysis needed to come to valid conclusion.

    I am applying very scientific analysis.  1,300C or more.  It’s the most basic of materials science.  Various elements, alloys and minerals have very precise changes that happen only above certain temperatures.

    If you show me two matches, one burnt, the other not, I can tell you that the burnt match had experienced a temperature of at least X.  That’s a conclusion and a connection I can draw all day long and be very, very confident in it.

    I don’t have any data. I am just very skeptical that the gov’t would deliberately destroyed a building to cover up evidence when it could have done the same with much less destruction. ie there is no reason to blow up a safe, when you already have the combinati0n.

    Well, that’s our disconnect right there.  I have lots of data.  Tons of it.  And I am not limited by holding a belief system that says “the government wouldn’t…”

    For heaven’s sake, “the government”  lied about weapons of mass destruction and then killed a million people over that deception.  We put some child molesters in jail after a single incident and then brand them for the rest of their lives.  One and done.  Why do you provide “the government” with extra chances?  Shouldn’t the psychopathic result of killing a million innocent people be some sort of disqualifer?

    The whole affair of WTC 7 collapse is because a reporter mis-understood an emergency responder radio call “Pull Building 7” The radio call was “Pull out of Building 7 because its collapsing”: Warning Emergency responders to evacuate from the area near WTC 7 before it collapses on them. I am sure the radio call was difficult to hear as probably the responder issuing the warning, was on a handheld radio and likely in a noise location.

    Who cares about a possible misinterpretation of Silverstein’s “pull it” comment? It’s a(nother) diversion from the topic at hand, which is the materials science.

    Not only did I not raise that, but I was talking about building 6.  Six.  (VI).  We can discuss WTC 7 at some other point, but there again I’d be using physical data, such as free fall for 2.25 seconds, fused concrete melted blobs, eutectic steel, etc.

    But I get it.  This is a difficult topic because you have to entertain the idea that we were all lied to comprehensively and and completely.

    If you recall the scene during the aftermath, those building fires burned for about a month. I was working in New York at the time and could see the smoke pouring out from about 25 miles away from the Tappen Zee bridge (Near white plains, NY) for weeks.

    That’s not my interpretation. Ever been to a luau?  You dig a pit, line it with rocks, make a fire, put the fire out, then put a pig in there and cover it all up.  It looks like it’s burning for many hours afterwards, but it’s steam and smoke being liberated by the heat stored in the rocks driving off moisture and (poorly) combusting the grasses and leaves covering the pig.

    My interpretation is that something provided enough exothermic potential to really heat the living crap out of all that concrete and steel and it was the buried heat being worked off over many months.  Underground fires are 100% limited by the amount of oxygen that can penetrate.  Otherwise, there’s nothing to burn.

    Its possible if the temperatures were hot enough that steam could have supplied the oxygen needed for the fire.

    Really?  It’s possible if?  Could have?  Do you have any idea at what temperatures water dissociates into oxygen and hydrogen?

    You seem very comfortable tossing out plausible sounding theories without doing even the most basic of inquiry, and I’m mystified by that approach.

    At any rate, here’s the data:

    An appreciable fraction of water will be decomposed into hydrogen and oxygen at a temperature high enough so that the Gibbs free energy change for the decomposition reaction equals zero. At 1 atmosphere pressure this will occur at around 3000K to 4000K. At higher pressures the required temperature will be higher, and at lower pressures the required temperature will be lower, because one mole and hence one volume of water vapor decomposes into 1 1/2 moles and hence 1 1/2 volumes of (hydrogen plus oxygen). So decomposition is favored by high temperature and low pressure and is inhibited by low temperature and high pressure.

    The high temperature of steam boilers almost certainly cannot exceed 2000 degrees F which is about 1400K even for short intervals, and probably not 1000K on a sustained basis, as these are typical metallurgical limits. At these temperatures there is not much dissociation of water vapor. See, for example, Thermodynamics by Kenneth Wark, Jr. and Donald E. Richards, 6th edition, Table A-24 on p. 1066. (The material in Sects. 14-5 through14-7 on pp. 762-773 and Tables A-12 through A-15 on pp. 1047-1055 may also be helpful.)

    (Source)

    The Kelvin to Centigrade conversion is 3000 K/2727 C and 4000 K/3727 C.  So the “basement fires” would have to be burning at somewhere north of 2700 C to decompose water (or steam) into oxygen and hydrogen.  Yeah.  No.  Never, not once. In this gentle universe blast-furnace temperatures do not spontaneously happen (thank god).

    Maybe a parallel one. But not the one you and I inhabit. Here you have to work really hard to create temperature deltas, and the more extreme the delta, the harder you have to work. A thermodynamic law about the transfer of heat seems to have been written into the source code of our simulation.

    Obviously if these fire were burning for weeks it had to be getting an external source of oxygen to burn for that long. No way would any chemical oxidizer (ie thermite) would have burned for weeks. It would have been spent in a matter of minutes to seconds.

    Again, your interpretation requires basement fires to somehow burn intensely for weeks at temperatures that are literally impossible (even if fully & perfectly oxygenated), and my interpretation simply allows for an exothermic potential to have been applied, possibly within seconds, that heated everything up to the witnessed temperatures, where they then lay in the basement, covered like a luau pig, smoldering away for weeks as the excessive temperatures slowly radiated away.

    Your views require me to believe impossible things.  My views simply say “a lot of excess heat was supplied.”  I can find a path to understanding the excessive heat conundrum.  Your path requires me to unlearn decades of science that has yet to fail me (or anyone else).  Things like the exothermic potential of carbon-hydrogen bonds.  Conservation of momentum.  The heat of dissociation for water. The importance of oxygen for combustion.

    You know, really basic, thoroughly proven stuff.

    However, if you or anyone can provide me with even one other example, from all of history, showing a basement fire achieving these sorts of artifacts while using only oxygen as the oxidizing agent (not a warehouse holding magnesium, or powdered aluminum, for example), I will have to reconsider my case.  That’s how science works.  An hypothesis stands until contradictory data comes in.

    I’ve yet to see any.

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 9:31am

    #12

    newsbuoy

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    How To Be A Federal Criminal; tutorial materials

    https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/How-to-Become-a-Federal-Criminal/Mike-Chase/9781982112516

    https://twitter.com/crimeaday?lang=en

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 10:24am

    #13

    thc0655

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    Kunstler on our common knowledge predicament

    https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/there-is-no-normal/

    Even the traumas of the 20thcentury’s world wars did not crush that sense of amazing progress, at least not in North America, spared the wars’ mighty wreckage. The post-war confidence of American society achieved a level of in-your-face laughable hubris — see the USA in your Chevrolet! — until John Kennedy was shot down, and after that the delirious moonshot euphoria steadily gave way to corrosive skepticism, anxiety, acrimony, and enmity. My generation, booming into adulthood, naively thought they could fix all that with Earth Day, tofu, and computers, and keep the great wheel rolling down into an even more glorious cybernetic nirvana.

    Fakeout. That’s not where the wheel is going. We borrowed all we possibly could from the future to pretend that the system was still working, and now the future is at the door like a re-po man come to take away both the car and the house. The financial scene is an excellent analog to our collective psychology. Its workings depend on the simple faith that its workings work. So, it is easy to imagine what happens when that faith wavers.

    We’re on the verge of a lot of things coming apart: supply lines, revenue streams, international agreements, political assumptions, promises to do this and that. We have no idea how to keep it together on the downside. We don’t even want to think about it. The best we can do for the moment is pretend that the downside doesn’t exist. And meanwhile, fight both for social justice and to make America great again, two seemingly noble ideas, both exercises in futility. The wheel is still turning and the change of season soon upon us. What will you do?

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 12:09pm

    #14

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

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    DIY magic forge

    Hey guys, I’ve actually seen this one in action; my son and I forged spice chpper knives!

    It’s a DIY magic forge.

    https://manmadediy.com/4628-make-this-diy-fire-brick-blowtorch-forge

    It’s amazing what UNcommon knowledge can help you do.

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 12:29pm

    #15

    Michael_Rudmin

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    I might also add...

    … that I would half expect gun safes to have self-oxidizing gun cartride shells in the vicinity; I might even expect to find oxygen containers in the area; and when all that concrete comes crashing down, making an insulated mess, I might not be too surprised to find steel safes melted similar to what we did in our propane forge. Insulation, plus an over supply of oxygen in a good, steady high-mass-rate-of-flow, plus a good hydrocarbon source can do amazing things.

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 12:45pm

    Reply to #3

    tourcarve

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    Forming the Worlds We Live or We Map The Territory

    Dave and Eric –

    Another take on reality and our experience.

    In Hierarchy Theory Allen and Ahl separate what is contributed by the physical world from what is contributed by us, observers, in the act of perceiving. The physical world contributes gradients in behavior. That’s it. 

    We contribute all of the rest.

    Via processes involving addition, deletion, and distortion, we build the worlds that we live starting from those gradients in behavior. We name the edges by which a dandelion emerges as a separate thing. We form the levels of classification, by which the dandelion becomes a member of a group called dandelions, and the group gets labeled as a weed, and the weed gets labeled as something to be eradicated. 

    Between edging and levels of organizing and then working with those levels, lots of room for missteps and unfortunate choices. Also lots of room for making more fruitful choices. More useful maps of reality. Even if a given map has edges, contains dragons, and shows cities, but not distributions of animals or cultural beliefs.

    Maps are more or less useful. More is better. Less can be lethal.

    Mapping miscreants: It can be useful to reclassify a weed (or a pharmaceutical executive or The Fed) as an opportunist. That change invites a move in focus from the individual and its characteristics to looking at the environment where opportunities arise for invasions of undesirable characters. And that invites us to consider our role in sustaining it. Levels of organization, of mapping. Our choices, environments, opportunists. Which level will be most effective to focus on?

    Mapping energy: It can be useful to look at fossil fuels not in general, but by mapping in multiple levels. The argument of whether energy drives the economy or the economy drives energy seems like a false argument. Currently available barrels enable certain current economies and not others. The current economy enables obtaining future barrels, which enable a future economy. That is, the barrels enabling the current economy are not the same barrels obtained by that economy. 

    It is challenging to experience the raw gradients in behavior without the added levels of meaning. John Grinder, one of the cofounders of NLP (Neurolinguistic Programming, mentioned by Chris a few weeks ago.) developed an exercise to experience, as far a possible, the physical world. Pairs of people went out into the streets of London and, one at a time, tried to experience splotches of green, red, and yellow rather than ivy leaves; the feel of hard curves underfoot rather than cobble stones; changing sound levels and textures rather than taxi cab horns. The second person was there, of course, to keep the explorer from being hit by a cab. My partner was able to escape his constructed world. I was not.

    I love this perhaps apocryphal story about Picasso riding on a train. The man next to him said that he preferred art that was realistic. Picasso asked the man if he had a picture of his wife. The man pulled out his wallet and proffered a photo. Picasso looked at it and said, “She’s very small, isn’t she?” 

    The map is not the territory. We live the maps. So hard to remember.

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 3:13pm

    Reply to #15

    Chris Martenson

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    … that I would half expect gun safes to have self-oxidizing gun cartride shells in the vicinity; I might even expect to find oxygen containers in the area; and when all that concrete comes crashing down, making an insulated mess, I might not be too surprised to find steel safes melted similar to what we did in our propane forge. Insulation, plus an over supply of oxygen in a good, steady high-mass-rate-of-flow, plus a good hydrocarbon source can do amazing things.

    I’d be hugely surprised.

    Why?

    Because the amount of smokeless gunpowder in the average pistol round is around 6 grains.  Which means there’s around 1 kg of powder in 2,500 rounds.

    Smokeless powder has an energy potential of 4.6 MJ/kg

    Gasoline has 131.76 MJ/ gallon

    Converting all of that, it means that to have the same energetic (heat) potential as a gallon of gasoline, you’d need more than 75,000 pistol rounds.

    That would about fill a medium sized safe completely.  But let’s be safe and double that.  I’ll grant you 150,000 rounds in a gun safe.

    Do you think you can melt a steel safe, PLUS turn concrete into a molten mess with 2 gallons of gasoline?

    Me neither.   Isn’t data fun?  It cuts out a lot of guesswork and grey zones.

    Also, let’s not hypothesize oxygen tanks, because none have ever been mentioned and so why do that?  Does the ATF also run home-health O2 resupply missions I don’t know about?

     

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  • Mon, Aug 19, 2019 - 6:16pm

    #16
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

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    burn rates

    of all the aforementioned combustibles increase exponentially with pressure, ie. they work best when compressed (gasoline,diesel etc.) or when confined, (smokeless powders, pistol,rifle,etc).

     

    i spend alotta time trying to find pressure curves to fit chamber, barrel, and projectile weight, for an ordained purpose.

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 2:29am

    #17

    sand_puppy

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    Cement Melting: A new data point in the 9/11 story

    I wanted to officially thank Chris for his contribution to the list of “things that don’t fit the official narrative about 9/11.”  The addition of the molten fused cement with metal is a new data point in this story.

    Thank you.  I have bookmarked this post.

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 3:27am

    #18

    Michael_Rudmin

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    *sigh* the point is missed

    Chris, your ideas about what can be and what can’t is your map.

    yes, you have a good point about energy available in just ammo.

    Is it possible there were Oxy tanks on the floor above or below, maybe for a medical homecare company? Is it possible that rather than just telling people how to destroy weapons with torch, the ATF also does it? Is it possible they had fuel there?

    All of those things are possible –we’re not going to know the whole story.

    When someone says “it isn’t possible”, I tend to blink twice.

    The reality is going to be wider than your picture of it. Having some outliers does not require changing the storyline — outliers are the mark of reality.

    Of course, enough outliers can indicate that the story is different than you had supposed, too.

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 4:23am

    Reply to #18

    Rector

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    The power of belief over evidence

    That response is precisely the kind of argument in the face of evidence that keeps us in check.  It allows things like 9/11 to be perpetrated on humanity by those who understand how our beliefs will triumph – no matter what.

    Rector

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 7:48am

    #19
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Univerity of Alaska, Fairbanks research effort complete - Another datapoint in the 9/11 story

    For those interested researchers at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks have completed and will be releasing a 3 year study into the collapse of World Trade Center 7. Spoiler alert…the collapse was NOT caused by fires from “normal office furnishings”. Feel free to watch the presentation live September 5th for additional insight.

    Science, Truth, and Justice 18 Years Later: September 2019 Schedule of Events (Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth)

    “In the first week of September, AE911Truth will participate in releasing the draft report of the groundbreaking World Trade Center Building 7 Study by researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF).

    The release of this report will include a livestreamed presentation by the study’s principal investigator, Dr. Leroy Hulsey, at UAF’s Schaible Auditorium on September 3, 2019, followed by a second presentation from Dr. Hulsey at the UC Berkeley Faculty Club on September 5, 2019. The draft report will be published that same week at http://ine.uaf.edu/wtc7 — as well as at AE911Truth.org — and will be open for public comment for a six-week period ending October 15, 2019.”

     

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 7:50am

    #20
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Edit function

    Would be nice if an edit function were added back in. Just sayin’. Thanks!

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 8:30am

    #21

    David

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    Power of skepticism

    I am very, very skeptical of the 9/11 Commission Report.  I am also very skeptical of the AE Truther explanations too.

    “Jesse Ventura hired New Mexico Tech to show how nanothermite can slice through a large steel beam. The experiment was a total failure—even in the optimum (horizontal) configuration, the layer of nanothermite produced lots of flame and smoke but no actual damage to the massive I-beam tested.”

    https://skepticalinquirer.org/2011/07/the_911_truth_movement_the_top_conspiracy_theory_a_decade_later/

     

     

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 11:07am

    #22

    sand_puppy

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    Thermate must be focused with a channel to cut a beam

    I will try to find the video of numerous demonstrations of thermite/thermate (thermate = thermite with added sulfur) cutting steel beams, bolts and connectors.  But the incendiary thermate must be focused on the metal with an overlying piece of angle iron or a channel.

    I have limited access on my current work computer and can’t search videos here. The video I am thinking of was posted here on PP about 3 years ago by HughK.   Below is posted one picture from the video where the engineer (seen here) pours powdered thermite into a channel held against the beam.  It cut through the beam completely.

    The video begins by showing a debunking effort where loose thermite is loosely piled  in a mound against a metal object.  It does not cut it.  (“See. Thermite does not cut steel.”)

    Then as channels are employed focus the heat from the burning thermite on to the beam, the thermite is shown to cut steel beams in many different configurations, many times.

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 11:30am

    #23
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Re: Focused Thermite/Thermate

    Follow on to sand_puppy’s comments on channeling/focus thermite/thermate above.

     

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 12:02pm

    #24
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Continued: Focused Thermite/Thermate

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 4:23pm

    #25

    sand_puppy

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    14 minute video of an engineer that learns to make homemade devices to focus thermite to cut steel

    This was the original 14 minute video that I was remembering.  Time2Help’s post above is an abbreviated version.

    At the 4:00 mark (for 45 seconds), it shows a National Geographic “try and fail” to get a pile of loose thermite to cut steel.

    Then the engineer documents his learning curve as he discovers how to focus the heat of the burning incendiary, thermite, to cut steel beams and cut the heads off bolts.

    https://youtu.be/5d5iIoCiI8g

    If anyone want solid evidence that thermite can cut steel, here it is.

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 7:15pm

    Reply to #3

    KugsCheese

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    Re:I'm Very Confident.

    I agree with TechGuy…it’s a case of certain elements of the deep state aiding and abetting the wacko terrorists to create an event that assures continued funding and an opportunity to do some front running (Rickards).

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 8:18pm

    Reply to #2

    acomfort

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    Not suicide, not murder, and not dead.

    You believe they lied when they said suicide, lied when they said with blanket but when they said he is dead you believed. Why? There are no videos or photos of him dead. He may or may not be dead it depends on what they want us to believe. Just maybe he is worth more to someone alive than dead. What if he had a death switch, then the people who want him dead would want him very much alive. If needed the people holding him could torture him to give up all of his data to them. The kidnappers would then gain the power over others that Epstein had. This is obviously speculation, but it would be easy to show solid evidence if he is dead. I don’t think they can show he is dead but they may be working on the fake death story with a convincing video. Be patient it may be coming.

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  • Tue, Aug 20, 2019 - 8:18pm

    #26
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

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    3+

    We need a new Inquiry

    All the ping-pong in this thread reinforces my belief that we won’t settle much if anything unless a new Inquiry is commissioned, one with strong powers, broad terms of reference and a decent budget.

    Yeah, wouldn’t that be nice.

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  • Wed, Aug 21, 2019 - 8:03am

    #27

    Adam Taggart

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 2651

    3+

    Slumping RV Sales As A Dependable Recession Indicator

    Two years ago, John Rubino of DollarCollapse.com warned of ‘parabolic’ recreational vehicle (RV) sales and wrote the following:

    What’s the last big toy you buy when things have been good for a really long time and you already have all the other toys? An RV, of course. A dubious thing to own if you already have a house, but when the good times seem likely to roll on forever, why the hell not?

    And what’s the first thing you sell when you lose your job and your stocks are tanking? That very same RV. Which makes new RV sales a useful indicator of our place in the business cycle.

    Well, new RV sales are suddenly slowing down fast.

    Two days ago, the WSJ reported:

    Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association.

    And today, Zero Hedge came out with a report titled: This Is The Worse I’ve Seen It” – Recession Imminent As RV Industry Crashes

    Which includes this chart shows how shrinking (i.e. negative growth) new RV sales has happened in advanced of the past several recessions:

    RV sales chart

    Having to give up your toys is a recession indicator Joe Sixpack understands. He’s fast waking up to the growing possibility that the next few years may be unkind to his wallet.

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  • Thu, Aug 29, 2019 - 3:32pm

    #28
    ds24

    ds24

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 02 2010

    Posts: 7

    1+

    "Private knowledge" doesn't work for me

    I really dislike the term “private knowledge.” It is so obsequiously value-neutral. My default assumption is that all the messages I get from the culture are lies. I put a very high value on gaining a coherent world view in which I know who the true evildoers are. With the help of radical critics, I’ve painstakingly deduced what I believe to be true.

    For me, seeing through the lies is the most important achievement of my becoming an older adult.

    I think the term “private knowledge” must come out of bloodless social science. It would be better psychologically for all of us who have awakened from the cultural Kool-aid to assume what we have deduced to be true is actually true, despite the absence of social consensus. To call what we know “private knowledge” is to rob us of our very hard-won understanding of how the world actually works. It’s the truth, dammit!

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