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    Mutation! Are We Now Dealing With A More Contagious Covid-19 Strain?

    The G clade of the virus may explain why certain regions have been hit harder than others
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, May 5, 2020, 7:35 PM

Well, it seems we are closer to solving the mystery of why some regions of the world exhibit higher covid-19 infection rates than others.

New research is revealing that covid-19 mutated early on in the pandemic to create a more transmissive strain: the G clade, which may also be associated with a higher viral load.

The G clade was dominant in Italy, which suggests that’s why the virus hit that country so much harder than many others.

In the US, New York appears to have suffered from a high percentage of G clade cases. That’s likely why the infection rate has been much higher there than in other states.

In addition to the news about the new strain, we’re also now seeing evidence that the impact of covid-19 can linger for much longer than previously appreciated. There are reports of patients still struggling with symptoms 50 or more days after onset.

To re-iterate our oft-repeated advice: You do NOT want to get this virus if you can avoid it.

Don’t forget to get your free download of Peak Prosperity’s book Prosper!. Given its relevance to preparing for any kind of crisis, pandemic or otherwise, Chris and I are now making it available to the world for free during the covid-19 lockdown.

To download your free copy, click here.

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34 Comments

  • Tue, May 05, 2020 - 8:09pm

    #1
    Terriblis

    Terriblis

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    Antibody's

    Hey Chris,

     

    Thank you for your continues effort to provide us the info we need. It helped me and my family allot to prepare.

     

    Not sure if you found this already, but Dutch Coronavirologists (not many of them in the world) have found a working antibody trough testing with Sars classic on mice. Heavy piece to read for me but maybe you can break it down. It has been published in Nature Communications 2 days ago.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16256-y

    Here is the Dutch page:

    https://www.erasmusmagazine.nl/2020/05/05/nederlands-antilichaam-internationaal-erkend-super-maar-doel-blijft-mensen-helpen/

     

    I hope this helps you with your research.

     

    Yours sincerely,

    Arjen

     

     

     

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  • Tue, May 05, 2020 - 8:25pm

    #2
    jmone

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    jmone said:

    Posted this earlier, but FYI - here is an interactive map overlaying what Clade is circulating in each area of the world:  https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?branchLabel=clade&c=clade_membership&r=division

    Their Labelling is a bit different but as an example the Clade in circulating in countries (if I’m reading it correctly) is:

    – Original Clade Predominant : Wuhan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Philippines

    – A2(a) Clade Predominant : East Cost USA, Europe, South America, Turkey, Russia

    – B1 Clade Predominant : NW USA

    – Mixed Bag : West Coast USA, Australia

    Looks like you don’t want A2(a)!

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  • Tue, May 05, 2020 - 8:38pm

    #3
    BlueMarble

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    Another source on mutations

    https://phys.org/news/2020-05-mutations-sars-cov-insights-virus-evolution.html

    This is a summary. I did not go to the journal.

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  • Tue, May 05, 2020 - 9:02pm

    #4
    macro2682

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    Anti Vax

    How do I talk some sense into the anti-vaxers who think Bill Gates is trying to kill people?

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  • Tue, May 05, 2020 - 9:44pm

    Linda T

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    Re: Bill Gates and vaccines

    macro2682,

    Maybe they're right.. Listen to this interview "EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: Robert Kennedy Jr. Destroys Big Pharma, Fauci & Pro-Vaccine Movement"

    I haven't had a vaccination in over 20 years, probably closer to 30 actually. When I found out that mercury is used as a preservative in some vaccines, I blew my top. Did you know that it's a nerve toxin, carcinogenic, considered hazardous material which is why if you break a CFL bulb (which have mercury in them), you aren't supposed to just clean it up normally, there's a much different procedure... Mercury is still used in some thermostats too.

    And, yes I think he's trying to kill people. A lot of people. He's up to no good even though he puts on a good game face.

    Linda

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 12:40am

    #6
    jolee

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    jolee said:

    I appreciate when you add the links to the sources you use in your videos descriptions.  The video “Mutation! Are We Now Dealing With A More Contagios Covid-19 Stain?” doesn’t have any source links.  Would you please add them?  Thank you for all the info.

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 12:54am

    #7

    Ivo

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    Furin inhibitor

    Hi Chris,

    Does the presence of the furin site on the virus mean that a natural furin inhibitor, like Scutellaria Baicalensis, could prevent cell entry?

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 3:17am

    Hohhot

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    Vaccines have poor quality controls- Baxter 2009 put live H5N1 into seasonal flu

    Most vaccines are not profitable for the manufacturer per se, but because they are given immunity from prosecution by various governments, and the quality control measures are poor, they can make some cash. How much crap is in vaccines? It's frightening- how about some broken glass?

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hpv-vaccine-gardasil-voluntarily-recalled-due-to-glass-shards-in-some-vials/

    You can get all kinds of contaminates per scientific paper January 23, 2017 entitled, "New Quality-Control Investigations on Vaccines: Micro- and Nanocontamination."

    Baxter Pharma in Austria sent out flu vaccine with live H5N1 virus in it. Receiving nations injected it into lab ferrets who all died. Everybody called Baxter. At first they denied it, then they said "don't know how it happened," then "oopsie."

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/baxter-admits-flu-product-contained-live-bird-flu-virus-

    1.374503

    You're not getting a "clean" Covid 19 vaccine but one that's from animal cell lines. I think it's dog cells.  Animals have lots of coronaviruses. This vaccine has supposedly not been tested on animals but is going straight to humans.  Bad form.

    In 2011 researcher Dr. Judy Mikovits was put in jail by Fauci for discovering that all the RNA vaccines on the market are ineffective. She further found that because of the human and animal cell cultures they're grown in, they can cause life-long diseases. She is not anti-vaccine but wants good immunological basis for things.

    Those who've had the flu shots are 35% more likely to catch Covid 19.

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 3:48am

    Chris Martenson

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    Links for May 5th Video

    I seem to have forgotten to put the links in the Youtube comments again.

    Here they are:

    G-Clade takes over

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf

    Excess deaths US and Italy

    https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/g4uu8b/covid19_deaths_vs_typical_flu_seasons_in_the_us/

    Excess Deaths all Countries

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

    False Dawn

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/-false-dawn-recovery-haunts-virus-survivors-who-fall-sick-again?sref=ZAnvU9CI

    Fever, fatigue Fear

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fever-fatigue-fear-some-recovering-covid-19-patients-weeks-illness-n1197806

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 5:01am

    #10
    Miles Harding

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    Another Holy Cow moment

    I was listening to another podcast on CrossRoads (Epoch Times) with Joshua Philipp

    here:

    He is interviewing Dr Sean Lin, former lab director of the viral disease branch of the [US] Walter Reed Army Institute of Research.

    After considerable discussion of the strange course of events, (at about 30 minutes) we get to the Furin cleavage site, but more surprisingly:

    He says that it can't be explained by simple evolution and that SARS Cov2 S-protein is  closely related to the Bat Cov IGG13 but receptor binding domain is identical to the Pangolin binding domain and neither has a Furin cleavage site. (Did I just hear this?)

    Question: Has Wuhan been blending viruses and adding cleavage sites?

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 6:58am

    #11
    cfogg

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    cfogg said:

    Chris:

    Thank you. I appreciate all the information and wisdom you provide through these videos.

    Very interesting topic. Question – is this information at all connected with the information that was circulating back sometime in mid-to-late March about two “variants” or “types” being identified? One was describes as being more easily contagious and more severe in its impact, and the second being the opposite (slower spreading and milder)?

    I am working from memory here. I believe the thinking back in March was that the greatest number of early cases in Wuhan was of the milder form. At that time the second kind was identified in an area either within Wuhan or nearby. The kind in Washington state was the milder kind. Not known was whether the more easily spread kind would eventually overtake the spread of the slower version; whether the more severe kind would spread outside the Wuhan area and eventually reach the United States or Europe; and whether immunity to one version (variant or type) would confer immunity to the second version.

    Your video just seemed to me as an echo of what I recall the discussions I watched on Youtube back in that timeframe. I watched this May 5 video just waiting for you to use the words “variant or type.”

    I have not heard any of the medical channels I watch say anything further about these two versions of the virus since that time frame. I have wanted to ask you what you thought about the quick earlier discussion about two versions of the virus discussion, and then just a silence since then.

    Anyhow, please continue doing your great work. And by the way, two other doctors I watch on Youtube had some of their videos removed from Youtube. These videos specifically offered analysis and opinion about HCQ and Remdesivir. Both said clearly what you have been saying – information so far is much more favorable about the outcomes from HCQ administered early. Both expressed concern/caution about the early hype being spread around from the ongoing Harford study suggesting that Remdesivir was significantly more beneficial than placebo. One channel is Medcram, and the other is Drbeen. Seems as if someone is not happy with criticism of Remdesivir, or not happy with opinions favoring early intervention with HCQ.

    Thanks again,

    Chuck

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 7:17am

    #12
    cfogg

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    cfogg said:

    Chris

    Follow-up to my previous comment.  I think the variant/types were S and perhaps M.  I also found this link.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027953v2.full.pdf.

    Chuck

     

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 8:25am

    #13
    tatagiri

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    Please, don't let the pressure to make an episode everyday lead to half baked stories.

    One thing i liked about Chris is the rigor he asks from the scientists - stanford paper, nature article on sc2 origins etc.  By his own standard, the last two episodes feel like they are lacking the rigor and trending towards tabloid titles. The red-herring is when the titles sound sensationalist and end with a question (?) and use exclamation marks (!).  These titles look like CNN or FoxNews . We rely on Chris to keep the calm and tease out the signal from the noise in an impassioned and rational manner ( remember up/down ) - however, these titles seem to feed the nutters and leave a lot unanswered.

    Mutation! Are We Now Dealing With A More Contagious Covid-19 Strain?

    [ anecdotal evidence and not peer reviewed , no actionable insights ]

    Coronavirus: Are Our Scientists Lying To Us?

    [ Very good content, showed some conflict of interest/disclosure issues - but did we really show that someone blatantly lied ?? smoke- no fire]

    Bombshell! Covid-19 Virus Lab-Made? Fauci Connected?

    [ Lot of information, but apart from furin we still need to show what the source for SarsCov2 is. The closest RNA is 97% match - what is the origin of base SC2 before furin was inserted? Also furin is not so uncommon MERS has it. We really did not prove it and just raised some improbable events and much needs to be done to connect SC2 to the wild or lab ]

    Market Update: Flying Too Close To The Sun?

    [ It will help if the forecast was specific and actionable (apart from plant a garden) ]

    I would prefer if Chris even does once a week episode but with  a more rigorous content than half baked content everyday.

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 8:27am

    #14
    Wk2790

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    Wk2790 said:

    Hi its hard situations due to covid-19 its really useful content about this thanks for sharing.and i am also referring an another useful article you may b like it https://www.thedigitalconsumers.com/2020/04/coronavirus-worldwide-news.html

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 9:35am

    urban planner

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    We’re adults here

    I appreciate Chris’ unfailing work and mental rigor. Our family has greatly benefited from the PP awareness and thinking for many years.

    I think expecting complete and perfect knowledge and analysis in the midst of so many things going on simultaneously is unrealistic at best. The thing is, we’re all adults here. We know there is more than we can know. We know the information is imperfect and that we simply don’t have the ability to step out into space and look at all the moving parts as a whole, including and especially the hidden parts. The best we can do is glean what knowledge we can and attempt to create a flexible strategy based on what we know and can project forward.

    We know massive disruption in supply chain means shortages of all types though we don’t know yet to what extent and to which things. Hence, plant a garden. If it’s just exercise and sunlight, that’s reason enough. No shortages mean a bounty for you, your neighbors and the food bank. Significant shortages means the garden is a lifeline. I live in a small town on a tiny lot but with access to large community garden space. Will it feed all four of us? At 1200sf it will go a long way, particularly with targeted crops that can be stored, succession planting and hoop rows to extend the season and maximize the space. These are skills I’ve learned over decades because I learned to think in terms of resilience - a PP hallmark.

    I’m in Washington State. Our clade made for a soft landing but only if the G clade doesn’t whipsaw back here. As an adult, that means I take precautions to protect my immune challenged self and my asthmatic kid. Every bit of this is actionable to us.

    My one request is we start focusing on the much larger picture. ~40k deaths for every 1% rise in unemployment is a MUCH bigger deal than Covid. Those deaths just take longer to show up and are hidden in a million different ways under the rubric of poverty. The New Harbor guys are great but their perspective is focused on a narrow set of wealthy people with stocks. The other 80% of us have much bigger issues that threaten us on a personal level and the societal level. There simply isn’t enough ground for all of us to become homesteaders, even if the financial, health and skill capital were there which is definitely not the case but for a privileged few. A Greater Depression is a longer and more existential threat than the virus (whether you think it’s a plandemic or not). 265 million people worldwide are at risk of starvation. But your stocks went down and you couldn’t go to the gym? How tragic.

    Obviously by my handle, my thoughts are about how to protect all of society not just the bunker boys. I’m old enough not to give a rip about PC issues and my political bent after a career working in small town politics is agnostic on a good day. But individual health, wellness, resilience and opportunity matter. How are we going to face this global existential challenge and turn the opportunities it presents to our favor so that we all have the chance to thrive? (And maybe put a few heads on pikes.)

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  • Wed, May 06, 2020 - 9:06pm

    #16
    pat the rat

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    time off

    Chris take the next week off we will still be here when you get back. Happy digging!

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 12:05am

    #17
    aebe68

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    The effect of stress on the immune system

    G'day from down under

    I have two points, one leading to the other.

    1. - regarding excess mortality - it is not true that stress (of isolation and lock-down) is likely to suppress the immune system, especially for men, and thus causing more death?
    2 - regarding the average age of death, can we compare a large group of dead attributed to COVID-19 with a large group attributed to the flu and compare the average age? Is that not a more valid way to compare this new corona virus with the flu than to look at excess mortality in the short term which is high because (i) no one has immunity (a temporary problem) and (ii) the stress factor mentioned above

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 1:34am

    VTGothic

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    Too soon to be definitive

    can we compare a large group of dead attributed to COVID-19 with a large group attributed to the flu and compare the average age? Is that not a more valid way to compare this new corona virus with the flu than to look at excess mortality in the short term

    IMO it's the short term nature of the Covid-19 outbreak that undermines your suggestion. All Honey Badger stats are an initial work in progress; we can't do the kind of comparison you suggest until we have at least a year's outbreak of Honey Badger behind us and (significantly) have settled on some universally accepted protocol for determining what is and is not a death attributable to Honey Badger. Attribution standards are in disarray, which is what prompted the interim use of excess deaths as a proxy. It may not be good for absolute stats, but it does allow one to see trajectories and changes in trajectories.

    For my part, I'm still waiting to see what, if any (but I think likely), delayed mortality is attributed to Covid-19 from the blood/organ compromising aspect of this virus. That's still barely recognized as a secondary cause of mortality, at least publicly. Who knows if behind the cement walls of various government health research centers it's getting attention? But it strikes me that in time that may be a larger concern,  both for the long-term debility it could promote and for the delayed deaths it might cause.

    My initial impression, from rather limited references, is that this avenue could prove to be a bigger problem in younger populations, since the susceptible elderly/comorbidity-rich population may be dying too quickly from lung involvement for the slower system-compromising effects to manifest in organ failure. Could be a completely bogus line of worry; it's too early to know but it's on my radar for the nonce.

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 4:41am

    #19
    marjay

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    Plandemic Movie

    Okay, this may have already been posted however, I just watched it and found it frightening. I would be interested in hearing what others think. If you get a chance Chris, I would be interested in your thoughts.

    https://lbry.tv/@SJA:6/trim.F8EBFE9B-02F6-4710-9509-F41DF8610611:c

     

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 5:03am

    #20

    LesPhelps

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    HCQ Shortage

    Sometimes I'm slow.

    There weren't enough masks, so they told us masks don't work.

    Now they are telling us HCQ doesn't work.  What's do you think is up with that?

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tanyachen/kaiser-permanente-lupus-chloroquine

    https://whdh.com/news/after-trumps-statements-about-hydroxychloroquine-lupus-and-arthritis-patients-face-drug-shortage/

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-shortage-hydroxychloroquine-mothers-lupus.html

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 5:51am

    LesPhelps

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    Plandemic Movie

    Interesting movie.

    However, the issues not addressed are simple and can't be ignored.

    First, are current death counts significantly above what is normal or not?

    Second, how bad is catching Covid-19?  What is the CFR?  How likely are permanent health impacts of recovering from Covid-19?

     

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 7:40am

    pyranablade

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    pyranablade said:

    Great comment Urban Planner. But you certainly need to explain this sentence to the rest of us:

     ~40k deaths for every 1% rise in unemployment is a MUCH bigger deal than Covid.

    I have a guess...I imagine it means that when unemployment goes up 1% then you have more suicides, depression alcohol abuse, etc. All killers. Is that it?

     

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 9:06am

    urban planner

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    Unemployment does increase death rates measurably

    Urban planning is a social science. Social scientists have been studying the effects of unemployment for decades. The stat I quoted came first from studies in the 80s but other studies since and around the world confirm these figures more or less. Google or DuckDuckGo unemployment mortality rates, wade through the current tsunami of covid coverage and lots of info shows up below the distractions. The Robert Kennedy Jr interview referenced all over the posts here also mentions these figures. I think he quotes 37k dead for every percentage point rise in unemployment. Then he references a real unemployment rate of (I think) 35%. Official stats right now are closer to 20%, but maybe he’s future casting or counting underemployed, gig workers who are ineligible, etc. Either way, the math utterly dwarfs Covid.

    Unemployment has many direct and indirect effects. They include the ones you mention - the deaths from despair (suicide, higher overdose rates, domestic violence, high levels of stress which promotes sickness, the immune suppression and soul crushing pain of   depression and loneliness) as well as things like lack of health care, poor nutrition because healthful food costs more, less sanitary and safe living conditions and run on, cascading effects throughout people’s lives like social ostracism and disconnects from society. These things are indirectly counted in mortality figures and play out over a lot more time. You can already see it at work in the US’s declining life expectancy. Poverty is insidious and right under the surface, or it was.

    Covid will circle the globe many times and kill people, a lot of people, possibly as a permanent feature of our lives henceforth. But unemployment and its knock on effects will do far more damage. If perhaps this were a plandemic, just like with the Everything Bubble, Covid is just the catalyst. Covid can mask a lot of Wall Street crime. But the bigger threat is the depopulation bomb that was planted under Main Street and in the suburban cul-de-sacs and everywhere else people weren’t already subsistence living. Or, maybe it’s just a random meteor crashing into a crumbling and brittle economic and social system. The effect is the same.

    My masters and career are in urban planning. My undergrad was biology. I’ve come to view this whole thing as a massive ecological phase shift wherein everything suddenly, seemingly inexplicably (though obvious in hindsight) changes radically. Some species or individuals are primed to thrive (think urban wildlife like raccoons, squirrels, etc) while some perish. Life goes on, but differently than before. Mount Saint Helens blows up, casts ash for thousands of miles and is hugely different. That’s how I see this.

    Planners by our nature take the long view. My thinking is that this is going to get ugly for a long time and effect everyone profoundly. We have to find a way to salvage as much good for as many people as possible because they are us. And if we fail, well, in the super long view, something will work out. After all, we’re the mutants that survived the dinosaur apocalypse.

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 9:44am

    #24

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Thank You Urbanplanner

    Unemployment has many direct and indirect effects. They include the ones you mention - the deaths from despair (suicide, higher overdose rates, domestic violence, high levels of stress which promotes sickness, the immune suppression and soul crushing pain of   depression and loneliness) as well as things like lack of health care, poor nutrition because healthful food costs more, less sanitary and safe living conditions and run on, cascading effects throughout people’s lives like social ostracism and disconnects from society.

    Sooo the message ”stay the f$!,)@ home” has consequences.

    The Robert Kennedy Jr interview referenced all over the posts here also mentions these figures. I think he quotes 37k dead for every percentage point rise in unemployment. Then he references a real unemployment rate of (I think) 35%.

    Remember when people have nothing left to lose, they lose it.

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 10:50am

    Snydeman

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    Snydeman said:

    Remember when people have nothing left to lose, they lose it.

    I can't usually chime in to these conversations, because T-Cells, D-daimers (sp?), immune pathways and the like are distinctly not in my wheelhouse, but your line hits squarely within my area of knowledge (history). I'll just back up that line (spot on, by the way) with a screenshot of the powerpoint presentation I gave yesterday to my World History II students regarding Hitler's rise to power; namely how a political party that got below 3% of the vote in 1928 captured 37% a mere four years later...

    I support the notion of "stay the F**K home," but I also understand very well why people are equally concerned about the economic repercussions. There's no easy way to get through this pandemic, that's for sure.

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 11:15am

    Linda T

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    Plandemic movie

    marjay,

    Chris posted this last night:

    "Re: Plandemic Movie

    Just a few quick thoughts.

    I found the beginning with Dr Mikovits pretty compelling.

    However, they really lost me by bringing in the Bakersfield knuckleheads.  Especially when they spouted their unique theory of immunology which has people suddenly becoming immunologically naieve over a couple of months.  You know, because they aren't out getting re-challenged every day by pumping into other diseased folks.

    Yeah, no.  That's not how it works.

    If it were, then they could simply dig up all this amazing data showing how round-the-world sailors and people otherwise isolated for long stretches became sick when coming back into society's fold.

    It's not a thing.  It doesn't work that way.  Of course, the tetanus boosters every ten years, or the once-in-a-lifetime measles vaccine ought to have steered these fine gentlemen into some concerns over their theory's validity.

    Or maybe they should have stayed awake during those classes.

    As I said - I wouldn't want them as doctors.

    But allowing such claims to be part of a documentary undermines it pretty badly.

    Here's my rule for pushing the boundaries of 'acceptable thinking'; you can't make silly mistakes when doing so.  It gives your detractors both ammunition and an easy out."

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 11:38am

    Mohammed Mast

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    Losing it

    I have been reading your posts and it seems you believe wearing masks, social distancing, and sheltering in place are unnecessary. It seems you ascribe to the idea we should just go about life as if everything is normal and let the virus burn through the population until everyone has gotten it and we just "might" have herd immunity.

    Is that your position?

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 12:05pm

    urban planner

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    3+

    Thank you for the historical perspective

    I'm currently reading a book on the Wiemar Republic. It is the radicalization of political views and the convenient scapegoating that scares me the most - on all sides. We have more in common than we don't, but you'd never know that by the reporting. Ask any random group a list of social questions but leave out the dog whistles, the bias, the clues and you find that time and again people from all races, religions, classes and political leanings care about the same things - health, safety, opportunity, community and a bright future for their kids. It's the reason I will always bring up the larger society and not the <1-2% that jump into homesteading, which ultimately is just hiding from the larger world. (Not to say I wouldn't enjoy the lifestyle choice that is homesteading. I worked on an organic CSA farm as a farm laborer with hand tools for the better part of a decade while also running my solo proprietorship as an urban planning consultant.)

    I try not to wear the tin foil hat. And maybe I've read too much science fiction, too much actual science, too much history and too much ZeroHedge (this one for sure, especially lately), but what if this were (hypothetically - based on nothing) a depopulation experiment (though I really would hope that we're just not that smart, coordinated or evil)? One of my climate change books suggested the carrying capacity of the earth is about 1 billion. That ain't too many of us. Knowing lockdowns are likely to result in far more death through unemployment and poverty effects globally than are likely from the virus, I wonder hypothetically if the lockdowns aren't as much about the pin (Covid) as they are about massive course corrections for the failing system. (Or maybe just making gadzillions for the obscenely wealthy.) We've lost, as of this morning, 440 US jobs for every US Covid death (understanding the stats aren't very accurate). If this was a social experiment (or purge), I cannot understand why you'd put so many people in a position to lose everything, thereby radicalizing them because they have nothing left to lose - including hope. If they were happy with little pink houses and the circus maximus, why not leave well enough alone? Unless there are bigger issues at play - like population overload and global ecosystem crashes. Then, though, you have to hope that you can control the population in other ways - say the surveillance state and fear. It's a bad movie. The other explanation, also horrible, is we stretched the empire way past its limits and got caught with our pants down. That seems more plausible, though that book won't make an exciting screenplay. I wish I could say I was looking forward to the documentary.

    (Also, I'm quite willing to be talked off the ledge, because I really am an optimist and haven't enjoyed the rabbit hole.)

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 12:05pm

    #29

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    2+

    Not sure you are speaking to me but I will answer.

    Nope, that’s not my position.

    My position is let people have the dignity to work, put food on the table for their families while taking precautions to protect others.

    Perhaps you are unaware of the 1957 worldwide Pandemic that killed 1.1 million people.  No draconian steps were taken to imprison people in their homes and society got through it.  The working people were not sacrificed.

    I believe the long-term damage to families, businesses and the economy will be more catastrophic than the virus from this Plandemic.

     

     

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 12:18pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 497

    2+

    Mohammed Mast said:

    Well maybe Urbanplanner. Then maybe not.

    Social science is an interesting field. It is based on a great deal of statistics. These statistics are gathered in various ways by various people and are interpreted by various people.

    Interestingly the number 40k which you cited comes from the movie the Big Short. This has been studied by many for awhile now and it is not a cut and dried issue. Apparently there is a bit of debate about this very issue.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recessions-unemployment-mortality-rates-2015-10

    The studies that say the mortality rate goes up indicate it is primarily due to heart attacks. That would make unemployment a comorbidity of heart attacks. I have never heard of anyone having a heart attack who did not have a high risk factor such as smoking, heredity etc. .

    I think reducing this into a simple quote lifted from a movie is giving short shrift to a very complex issue.

    Just a quick back of the envelope calculation that would mean assuming a 20% unemployment rate 800,000 people would now be dead since January. Certainly that would dwarf SC2 by a wide margin. That would destroy Chris's deaths above baseline numbers in short order.

    I am not suggesting unemployment is a good thing, but I am questioning methodology and conclusions.

    Ps I have been unemployed for long periods of time on lots of occasions (it goes along with my line of work) I never had a problem. I actually enjoyed the time off

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 12:35pm

    urban planner

    urban planner

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 15 2016

    Posts: 39

    No, I’m referencing science literature

    I’ve not seen the movie.

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 12:39pm

    #32

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1162

    4+

    Justice! Justice! Justice! Flynn prosecution dropped.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-nSWLVyDYw

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 1:43pm

    #33
    Linda T

    Linda T

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 09 2014

    Posts: 132

    Re: Justice and Flynn's case being dropped

    Jim,

    That's great to hear. I imagine Kunstler will mention that in his blog tomorrow since he periodically talks about it as well as other shenanigans...

    Linda

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  • Thu, May 07, 2020 - 9:04pm

    #34
    Essex

    Essex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2009

    Posts: 7

    Essex said:

    These are all very good points. But the analysis is way too limited. Have to apply complexity theory. Complex systems have many inputs and apply simple analyses is to invite failure.  You can “open the economy” all we want but the economy represents a series of relationships which is undergirded by confidence. If I don’t have confidence the interaction is going to be positive I will not engage. The discussion has been focusing on the labor supply side, but in reality it is consumer confidence and consumer demand that is going to drive the economy. Until people have confidence that leaving the confines of their homes is safe they won’t be transacting. So opening up labor supply will end up being futile. Long story short, we have to fix the health crisis. Three calls to open up without dealing with this decisively is likely (IMHO) to result in our right economic collapse, and quite possibly worse than if we impair some economic activity but deal decisively with covid-19. Folks, we have empirical examples. This is demonstrably not a puzzle at this point. We have a myriad of examples and approaches to choose from. But we have to fix the public health crisis. If we don’t, I have no confidence America will remain an economic power because if people go out there and cases and deaths mount, all confidence may be lost and the economy might disintegrate. I would counsel everybody to look at this all in a multivariate manner.   All of this said, we cannot allow the economy to remain shut down indefinitely, and we need to figure out how much activity can be sustained under the current circumstances (will require trial and error) but it CANNOT be full scale activity imo. Just saddened that we wasted the past three months (2 in lockdown) and we have developed practically no systems and procedures to figure out how to proceed sustainably. Doesn’t give me confidence if Covid-19 is going to be around for a while.

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