Investing in Precious Metals 101 Ad
  • Blog

    How Contagious Is The Coronavirus?

    The latest data points to "very"
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, January 25, 2020, 9:08 AM

This is the latest in our ongoing coverage of the fast-developing coronavirus outbreak originating in Wuhan, China. Our goal is to provide timely and science-based clarity on the situation for those overwhelmed by the many confusing & conflicting reports swirling in the media. If this is the first article of ours you’re reading on the subject, we recommend also reviewing our primer on the coronavirus.

There’s currently a bit of a kerfuffle on Twitter. It’s over an R0 study on ‘2019-ncov’, which is the official designation for the Wuhan coronavirus (as a reminder, R0 is a measure of how contagious a virus is).

The study is creating a stir because it initially reported an R0 of 3.8, but then was swiftly downgraded to 2.5.

First, it’s important to know that an R0 of 2.5 is still very bad.  That’s at the top end of previously reported ranges that were in my video alert from yesterday.

This specific Tweet garnered a lot of attention because a Harvard trained epidemiologist used some very inflammatory language:

So who is Dr Ting?

He’s a Harvard trained epidemiologist:

Dr. Ting was reacting to a new study that estimated the coronavirus’ R0 using available data.  Here’s the Twitter thread he posted:

Yikes!  Pretty alarming.

Before we go on, I need to say that this study cited immediately came out with a retraction/adjustment and has since “downgraded” the R0 to 2.5.

I use quotation marks because whether the number is 2.5 or 3.8, it’s still a concerningly bad number.

Immediately and predictably, an army of people slamming Dr. Ting for being “alarmist” and unhelpful quickly emerged.  These are the sorts of gatekeepers who feel it’s their duty, as enlightened souls, to help prevent less intelligent people from overreacting.  Or something.

Notably among them was Ferris Jabr, who really took Dr Ting to task:

And who is Ferris?

I have no idea what Jabr’s qualifications are beyond that short bio.  I’m guessing a ‘science writer’ has at least some science background??

Okay, with that as context, let’s parse through this.  To begin, I completely disagree with the notion that making elevated claims during a pandemic is “unhelpful.”

Why? Because what’s helpful during a pandemic?  I would suggest an overabundance of caution and swift reaction by authorities and the general public.

I already think that letting people travel while simply scanning them upon arrival for a fever is criminally negligent.  I would vastly prefer a much more reactionary response.

People like Jabr fit comfortably within the Overton Window where it’s always polite to downplay risks and act as if the State has things firmly under control.  You get invited to a lot more parties if this is your stance.

So, I take the opposite view of Jabr on this.  I think overreacting is appropriate when the facts are still fluid and nobody knows truly what’s going on.  I happen to think it is Jabr’s stance that is unhelpful and probably harmful.  If “panicking” means reacting swiftly on incomplete data, then by all means ‘panic’ when a pandemic comes along.  That’s just my view.

Now let’s turn to the study itself.  The authors turned around and changed the study’s conclusions very quickly.  I’m absolutely not going to fault them for that. We’re still in the very early stages of all this, and everything’s subject to change in an environment like this.

I fully applaud and respect people for changing their opinions and conclusions as more data comes in. That’s the same approach we take here at Peak Prosperity.

Here’s the latest from the study authors:

Comment: having such tight 95% confidence intervals after just downgrading your conclusion by -34% seems a bit precise.

The point stands, though, that they’re are still estimating an R0 of 2.5(!)

That’s NOT a favorable number.

This second, lower R0 estimate of 2.5 is still nearly impossible to contain and a major pandemic risk.  We can expect that number to change, possibly radically, as more and better data comes in.

However, I just read the study and I’m pretty certain that the 2.5 number may be too low.  Here’s why:

I’ve highlighted the most critical line from the entire study.  The entire epidemiological model is built upon a number of assumptions — but the largest of them all is the use of “reported case information” as the primary input.

What are the chances that the Chinese government is reporting the full and accurate case information?

Zero.

Either for political motives to downplay the severity (which every government would do, but China maybe more than most) or because of faulty case gathering (the PCR labs are swamped, and not every person got swabbed and sent off for testing), the “reported case information” is certain to be minimized vs reality.

In other words, the R0 of 2.5 is a minimum value, not a defined value (which is why I take exception to the confidence interval being so tight…that’s a measure of how confident they are if their data inputs are correct, not a measure of actual confidence that they are right).

So the true confidence interval should be placed around the question “how confident are we that the reported case information is correct?”  There my instinct would be to have big, fat error bars mostly to the upside, meaning more cases than reported is the actual reality.

Conclusion

Whether it’s 3.8 or 2.5 or 6.7, the R0 for 2019-ncov is sufficient to cause a pandemic.  It spreads easily.  My current opinion, which I reserve the right to change when better data comes in, is that the current R0 estimate of 2.5 is too low because of its reliance on officially reported case data.

My advice to you is to begin practicing good hygiene right now.  Your best defense against this virus is to not catch it in the first place.

So even in the safety of your own home begin these steps:

  • Don’t touch your face.
  • Don’t rub your eyes, don’t pick your nose, don’t wipe off your lips.
  • Every single time you touch a “nuclear surface,” a doorknob, an oven handle, a railing, a chair armrest, immediately go and wash your hands.
  • Practice wearing an N95 mask or its equivalent or better.

By doing these things you will be practicing habits that are useful during any flu season (which is still underway sadly).  It takes time to break a lifetime of bad habits of transmitting contaminants to your mucus membranes.  So, start them at home and you’ll be better equipped when in public.

When in public, be aware.  If someone around you is sneezing or coughing, get away from them.  Everybody in public, especially those infected should be wearing a properly fitted face mask.  If or when the pandemic arrives where you live, eye protection is needed too. [read here of Chinese MD who traced his own illness to having exposed eyes]

This is all changing very quickly, and having proper information is essential.

Finally, here’s some great advice from Peak Prosperity member Sand-puppy (who has many years of experience in emergency rooms):

1/24/20

Home treatment of febrile Influenza Like Illnesses/Respiratory Infection

[This is a very educated group and most are well versed in this.]

During outbreaks of viral illness, the ED will be a mad house. Stay away if possible.  Recommend strong attempts at self-treatment at home.  Stay out of the hospital unless truly needed.

  • Ibuprofen 800 mg(or naproxen) for fever, body aches, headache, chest wall soreness. This is a miraculous drug for the misery of ILI. It also helps to sort out the miserable from the seriously sick (see below).
  • If not vomiting repeatedly, you can drink water. “Drink until you pee.” Lots.
  • Electrolytes in water if diarrhea is a part of fluid losses.
  • If incessant coughing, Nyquil or equivalent.

The hospital ED will be a miserable place during a flu epidemic.  Long waits, no pillows or blankets. No snacks.  No sympathy from the staff!!  Sleeping on the floor of the hallways.  Remember that the ED staff is probably sick also.

A few situations where hospital care IS needed.

  1. Intractable vomiting (>6-8 times) or vomiting with diarrhea. IV fluids and anti-emetics will help when not able to hydrate by mouth.
  2. Chest pain and shortness of breath with fever, IF associated with fast pulse and low oxygen saturation. Might be pneumonia. Chest x-ray. Supplemental oxygen if oxygen is actually low. Measure pulse rate an oxygen saturation (see below).  In children, fast breathing at rest, even after good fever control, points towards pneumonia.
  3. Severe headache even after big doses of Ibuprofen and hydration. Might be meningitis. Spinal tap needed. IV antibiotics might help. Don’t even think about spinal tap until ibuprofen dose has been in body for 2 hours—everyone with the flu has a terrible headache.
  4. Urinary symptoms. UTI can give a ILI, especially in children and women.
  5. Wheezing with cough. May have an asthma-like response to the infection. Albuterol (and maybe steroids) may help. Uncommon.

Equipment list for home treatment of ILI:

  • Costco sized bottle of Ibuprofen or Naproxen. (Use the big dose)
  • Watch with second handto measure pulse rate and respiratory rate.
  • Pulse oximeter,$29 from Walmart or Amazon. This device will save you an ED trip.  Recommended!  Pic below.
  • Big tumblerfor water.  Drink and refill often.
  • Electrolyte powder(mag and K) in water if have diarrhea.
  • Disinfectant wipes.

Your faithful information scout,

~ Chris Martenson

Related content
» More

51 Comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:01am

    #1

    George Karpouzis

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 149

    2+

    Information blackout at this time

    Not getting any new info out of China

    cases at 1400 reported lol

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:24am

    #2

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 588

    7+

    Here too.

    I find it hard to believe that no new cases have emerged here in the US in 48 hours.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:34am

    #3

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4963

    4+

    Podcast I recorded this morning with TF Metals Report

    All:

    I recorded this podcast with Craig Hemke of TF Metals Report this morning.

    https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9904/special-podcast-discussing-coronavirus-chris-martenson-phd

    I think it’s well worth your time, and worth sharing.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:34am

    #4

    Quercus bicolor

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 286

    4+
    From the paper you mention in your article:
    We estimated that the ascertainment rate in Wuhan is 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5), reflecting the difficulty in identifying cases of a novel pathogen. Given the generally good accessibility to healthcare in China, this suggests that the majority of infections may be mild and insufficiently serious for individuals to seek treatment. However, it is worth noting that a number of identified cases have died (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention 2020) and that the true case fatality rate has yet to be estimated accurately. We also estimated the size of the epidemic in Wuhan at the time of the market closure to be 24 individuals (95%CI, 22– 25). Our estimates of epidemiological parameters are sensitive to our assumption regarding the length of the incubation period;
    This suggests that:
    1. As you mention above, there are many more cases than reported.
    2. Many cases are going unreported because they are mild so
    3. the death rate might be lower than currently estimated (only severe cases are reported, but most or all deaths reported); however,
    4. epidemic growth rate and transmission to other cities and countries will be much more rapid as many cases among travelers will go undetected, but these people will still be contagious.
    5. The death rate among vulnerable populations is still higher and it will be difficult to protect them from exposure and,
    6. A mutation might raise the death rate among healthy people.

    At this point, we’re formulating a plan in our family to protect the most vulnerable (mom with a compromised immune system due to multiple myeloma – but otherwise healthy, and another family member with a history of pneumonia as well as some chronic health issues).  Tentative plan is to quarantine them in mom’s apartment as long as needed once the first cases are reported in our area.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:37am

    Reply to #2

    George Karpouzis

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 149

    3+

    Time to start prepping

    The lack of new info is making me prep more

    I have 24 cases of water

    2 months worth of diapers

    2 months worth of baby formula

    60 N95 masks plus one full on respirator

    canned soup and fruits

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:41am

    #5

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4963

    5+

    Beijing Going on Lockdown

    On the one hand there’s no new news, the number of new cases and fatalities is frozen for many hours.

    On the other hand there’s this:

    One of these two data points is closer to the truth than the other…

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:46am

    #6

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4963

    5+

    Emergency Road Closure in China

    For everyone with a plan that includes “I’ll drive to my Plan B location when I need to” this photo underlines the need to leave early if that’s your plan.

    Edit:

    I came across this video from inside Hubei.  The still doesn’t really do it justice but it’s a long shot of what appears to be a completely abandoned city.

    (Source – https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1221058641891155968)

    My comment here would be this is *exactly* how you prevent the spread of a disease.  Shelter in place. The other side of this is that it only lasts as long as the food and/or water in each household or apartment.

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 11:01am

    #7
    karenf

    karenf

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 02 2010

    Posts: 51

    3+

    Thank you Chris

    You are so much appreciated!

    Karen

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 11:26am

    #8

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1647

    3+

    Chinese statistics

    It is deeply ingrained in the Chinese mind that reports that embarrass the CCP are to be avoided. It’s best to let the Party tell  you what the stats should say and then conduct the research that proves those stats. Remember that the CCP hasnt updated its stated gold reserves since 2015 (1948 tons : ya, right). Sum Ting Wong.

     

    Of course all governments work to reduce embarrassment, but some are much better at it than others. The wise person always uses Kentucky windage when looking at government “facts” to estimate the truth so a personal action plan can be developed.

    Peak trust is in the rear view mirror. Act accordingly.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 11:42am

    #9

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1647

    3+

    I know the “Daily Mail” is disavowed here but...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7928063/Wuhan-doctor-dies-nine-days-contracting-deadly-coronavirus-battled-save-patients.html

    So US authorities are bringing home US citizens from Wuhan on a flying, metal incubation tube. Brilliant!

    And the US, which has around 1,000 citizens in the city, is set to evacuate those it knows about – including diplomats – on a 230 seater charter flight tomorrow.

    The US government won approval for the operation from China’s Foreign Ministry and other government agencies following negotiations in recent days, The Wall Street Journal reports. The British Foreign Ministry is yet to confirm whether it will do the same.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 11:51am

    #10

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 588

    10+

    If it matters...

    My Chinese students told me the CCP notified all citizens that this virus is “no deadlier than the common flu.” Then they proceeded to explain that these kinds of messages are only sent when the CCP is lying, so NOW they are freaked out, because it’s obvious that the reality is the opposite of what the CCP is saying.

     

    The Chinese people ain’t stupid. They know what’s up. I just worry for these kids, whose parents and families are in the heart of a shitstorm thousands of miles away.

     

    Prepare now, people. Now.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 12:57pm

    #11
    skipr

    skipr

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 09 2016

    Posts: 149

    1+

    weaponized virus???

    Does anyone have an opinion about this Paul Craig Robert’s article?  It reminds me of General Powell’s vial of “anthrax” at the UN.

    The Global Economy Can Kill Us In More Ways Than One

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 1:23pm

    #12
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 26

    2+

    Little transmission ahead of symptoms?

    The info available online suggests that all transmission is via droplets and thus not likely without symptoms. Do we have info to the contrary? Also it suggests that the incubation period may be as long as 2 weeks (not 5 days as stated in some articles).

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 1:30pm

    #13
    Lions

    Lions

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 19 2018

    Posts: 28

    Financial

    Might want to put a stop loss on any trading positions.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 1:33pm

    Reply to #11
    ao

    ao

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1006

    3+

    the possibility of bioeconomic warfare

    It’s funny skipr, I was just discussing that very possibility with my wife last evening.  Governments can be capable of the most outrageous and egregious covert (and overt) behaviors, one just doesn’t know.  If we can conceive it, there’s probably someone who’s done it, is planning on doing it, or has considered doing it.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 1:38pm

    #14

    herewego

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 11 2010

    Posts: 132

    2+

    Thanks for the wealth of information

    Because of your input I have ordered N95 masks, made a list of medical care at home items to pick up on my next town trip for my household and my elderly mom’s, and have a pot of frozen elderberries on the boil right now.  We both have deep pantries but they will get deeper at my earliest opportunity.

    Interesting that all of the smaller packages of N95 face masks went out of stock in  2 hours on Staples.ca.  All dozen or so brands!

    I listened to your interview with Craig Hemke and much appreciate the update.  It was good to be reminded that potential systemic failures are just as big a concern as actually getting sick from this virus.

    Thanks for doing what you do, Chris, and for assembling this fantastic crew of posters.

    Susan

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 2:13pm

    #15
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 265

    3+

    9 people in Alameda Co., CA being tested for 2019 nCoV

    “At least 9 people being tested for coronavirus in Alameda County ”

    1/23/2020 news report. “At least….“? So there’s the possibility of more than 9 being tested?

    https://henderson.8newsnow.com/news/1727691-least-9-people-being-tested-coronavirus-alameda-county

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 2:43pm

    #16
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 265

    3+

    FluTrackers, US: 63 nCoV suspected cases in US, including CA, MN, MI, NC, TX

    See my earlier post re: 9 Alameda Co., CA being tested.

    1 being tested in NC, treated at Duke University Hospital:

    https://www.wbtv.com/2020/01/24/possible-case-coronavirus-nc-under-investigation/

    2 being tested in MN:

    https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/01/24/two-coronavirus-cases-suspected-in-minnesota-officials-prep-for-spread

    3 being tested in MI: 2 from Washtenaw Co.; 1 from Macomb Co.

    https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/2020/01/three-possible-michigan-coronavirus-cases-being-investigated.html

    1 suspected, Baylor student being tested:

    https://www.kcentv.com/article/news/health/baylor-student-tested-for-possible-case-of-coronavirus/500-aed8e19e-41ff-44d9-8dd9-9126f89d906f

    1 TN suspected case tested negative:

    https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/2020/01/three-possible-michigan-coronavirus-cases-being-investigated.html

    See FluTrackers, US for timely updates: https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 2:54pm

    #17
    KHenabray

    KHenabray

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 08 2014

    Posts: 4

    3+

    CM, do you believe in coincidences?

    I find it interesting that the exotic animal-fish market is located in the very same city (which, by the way, I’d never heard of before last week!) as a covert, ChiCom , P4 bio-weapons lab?!?! I’m hoping the nCoV Genie didn’t come outta THAT bottle!

    https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 3:27pm

    #18
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 265

    FluTrackers daily 2019 n-COV confirmed cases, deaths by county as of 1/25/2020

    FluTrackers daily 2019 nCoV report of confirmed, reported cases and deaths by country as of 1/25/2020 5 p.m. EST. Source

    “Total cases = 1,322, Total deaths = 41 (as of 5 am ET, January 25, 2020) – Disclaimer: We do not endorse any of these numbers.”

    Note:  Includes links to sources, does not include suspected cases.

    Also, “We are updating the China case number only once a day despite various provincial announcements. Some of these provincial cases are already in the daily tally from the National Health Commission, and some are not. Also, hundreds of cases have not been reported during the day but appear in the NHC daily tally.

    We wait for the daily NHC report. This usually occurs at 8:00 pm ET.”

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 4:39pm

    Reply to #6
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 265

    3+

    Food (and 2019-nCoV transmission) is still readily available through open wet markets

    Chris said, “My comment here would be this is *exactly* how you prevent the spread of a disease. Shelter in place. The other side of this is that it only lasts as long as the food and/or water in each household or apartment.”

    If they run out of food, presumably they can still go to their local live animal “wet market” to replenish their stores.  :-/   The Wuhan wet market was closed on 1/1/2020, but I can’t find any information that indicates the other wet markets have been closed, even in those cities that are under quarantine. I believe there are increased restrictions and possibly fines, but no additional closures.

    “What it will take to stop the Wuhan coronavirus” (Source)

    “One key step — closing all live animal markets nationwide — has not yet been implemented.

    I discovered in 2003 that wildlife dealers and animal breeders sell their living creatures all over the country, so that an infected animal in one city’s market may well have a counterpart from the same dealer, on sale in another market hundreds of miles away. It is not yet known what beast was the source of nCoV2019, though one study suggests, based on genetic analysis of the virus, that it came from a snake. The SARS virus was transmitted to restaurant workers who bought and slaughtered live civets — raccoon-like animals in a Guangzhou live animal market, which I investigated before authorities shut it down.

    Like the Guangzhou market, Wuhan’s Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market sells a vast range of animals, including civets as well as other exotic wild animals. All live animal markets throughout China and neighboring Asian countries should be shut down immediately, and not reopen until the source of the nCoV2019 epidemic is identified. Until then, it should be assumed that any live animals sold in markets from Hanoi, Vietnam, to Ulan Bator, Mongolia, might be dangerous to hold, slaughter or consume.”

    Some argue that closing or further regulating the wet markets is not feasible due to cultural considerations:

    “China doing any more to tighten regulations on the markets is “wishful thinking,” she said. To control these places, a generic solution for these particular markets won’t work; it won’t make sense. It has to be specific to the place, to the culture, then it’ll have a better chance of being followed,” she said.

    “The wet market is a part of China’s culture. You  can’t simply get out of your culture.”’ (Source)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 5:03pm

    Reply to #17

    westcoastjan

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 210

    6+

    my very thought

    Putting a biohazard lab in an area with wet markets is conceivably a strategic move to deflect blame when things go wrong and provide adequate scapegoats. This would not surprise me in the least if it were proven to be the case.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 6:08pm

    Reply to #16
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 150

    1+

    3 on observation in NY since Friday

    On Friday the Mayor of New York City Bill Diblastio and our Governor Andrew Cuomo announced 4 possible cases, one ruled out.no word on the other 3 since then except that they are still under observation. They won’t give the location of the suspected cases yet. For some reason Flutrackers doesn’t have it on their list so I am adding for completeness sake.  NY1 is the NYC local news site:

    https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/01/24/new-york-coronavirus-latest

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 6:47pm

    #19

    Oliveoilguy

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 572

    8+

    How to use an N95 mask correctly

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 6:52pm

    #20

    gallantfarms

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 18 2009

    Posts: 26

    5+

    Fever Helps the Body Defend Itself

    Personally, I would NOT take Ibuprofen or anything else to halt a normal fever.  Your immune system works better and faster and pathogens are inhibited or killed at a higher body temperature.  Why handicap your own defense systems?

    https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2010/10/26/scary-symptoms-that-are-really-no-big-deal.aspx

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 7:26pm

    #21
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 265

    1+

    China Update: 1,975 confirmed, 324 "severe"; 56 dead; 21,556 under observation (1/25/20)

    “Release time: 2020-01-26Source : Health Emergency Office
    At 04:00 on January 25, 2020, 29 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) reported 688 new confirmed cases, 87 new severe cases, and 15 new deaths (13 in Hubei Province and 1 in Shanghai). 1 case in Henan Province), 11 new cases were cured and discharged, and 1309 new cases were suspected.

    As of 24:00 on January 25th, the National Health Commission had received a total of 1975 confirmed cases in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and 324 severe cases. A total of 56 deaths and 49 cases were cured and discharged. There are 2684 suspected cases.

    At present, 23,431 close contacts have been tracked, 325 medical observations have been lifted on the same day, and 21,556 people are currently undergoing medical observations.
    A total of 5 confirmed cases were reported in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan: 5 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2 in the Macao Special Administrative Region, and 3 in Taiwan.
    In addition, a total of confirmed cases notified abroad: 4 cases in Thailand (2 cases have been cured), 2 cases in Japan (1 case has been cured), 2 cases in Korea, 2 cases in the United States, 2 cases in Vietnam, 3 cases in Singapore, and 3 cases in Malaysia One case was in Nepal, three in France, and one in Australia.”

    FluTrackers, China (Source)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 7:38pm

    Reply to #16
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 265

    Thanks, VeganDB12!

    I notified the site administrator of FluTrackers, included your post, w/hat tip. 🙂

    Hopefully (and sadly) they add NY to the lists.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 8:13pm

    #22

    Quercus bicolor

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 286

    Info on an antiviral drug that may be effective

    From my mom, retired from hospital microbiology and infection control:

    Coronavirus Susceptibility to the Antiviral Remdesivir

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 4:12am

    #23
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 150

    1+

    what is the rest of the story on patient 1 (became ill 12/1/2019)?

    Per one of my favorite bloggers on h5n1, the esteemed medical journal Lancet published a review of the first 41 cases in China but does not give follow up on patient 1.  The first patient was NOT connected to the seafood market in Wuhan and got ill a few weeks before everyone else.

    The symptom onset date of the first patient identified was Dec 1, 2019. None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases.

    Crof reports that the Lancet article does not say whether he survived or not and no one seems to know what happened to him

    https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2020/01/coronavirus-the-unexploded-ordnance-in-the-lancet-article.html

    This is the link to the Lancet article (they published a few this one looks at the demographics symptoms etc… of the 41 victims)

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 5:07am

    #24

    msnrochny

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 04 2010

    Posts: 41

    2+

    Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Heat Map

    https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/01/23/coronavirus-outbreak-mapping-tool-649-em1-art1-dtd-health/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 5:42am

    #25

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4963

    6+

    Cause for Hope, Cause for Worry

    Note: I’ve copied this over from the other thread so it can be in both places. The conversation is getting a bit fractured by all the content, which is somewhat unavoidable. Feel free to copy/paste any content you are posting in multiple places to assure it gets seen.

    Looks like China has gone full speed ahead with containment. The quarantine efforts should definitely help with slowing the spread of the virus. As of now there are 40 confirmed cases in Shanghai, which I’m watching very carefully as it’s a global city with a global reach. If Shanghai goes down then all bets are off. So far, looks like Wuhan has taken the brunt of the virus. It’s been completely closed off via martial law. Also the fact that there’s minimal cases in the US is comforting

    I agree with all of that. Those are positive signs, especially the low number of cases being detected and immediately contained outside of China.

    Militating against this relief is my profound distrust of every institution involved controlling the information.

    Also there’s the fact that China – presumably in possession of the real info – is aggressively quarantining it’s … well… basically it’s entire country now.

    I am 100% confident that China has been under-representing the true case figures, both for exposures and for deaths.

    As well, the numbers aren’t adding up. Every video sneaked out (they are quickly removed from Twitter, presumably by @jack placating Chinese authorities) shows every hospital in Wuhan completely filled to overflowing with people dying in hallways.

    Officially there are roughly 2000 cases (1975 as of last night). Wuhan has +49,000 hospital beds throughout its vast hospital system. I know it’s a big city of 11 million and many of those beds were already filled with other patients, but really?

    With 90% of cases being reported as “not severe” that leaves 200 severe cases. Those resolve over 11-15 days. We’re 46 days into this crisis, so many of those 200 putative critically sick people have recovered and moved on.

    Are we to believe that fewer than 200 bedridden 2019-ncov victims have totally overwhelmed a 49,000 bed hospital system?

    I sure don’t.

    So the next question is “just how badly under reported is this thing?”

    If it’s 10x under reported, then that would mean 2,000 critically ill people (and 20,000 infected). Is that enough to swamp a 49,000 bed system? I don’t know, I’ll leave that to our hospital experts and authorities, but it’s at least a more realistic place to start which begins to align with my common sense.

    Is the right number 15x under reported? 20x? I just don’t know yet.

    But those are the sorts of numbers that comport with China yanking the emergency brake, declaring a Level 1 emergency for its largest of cities including Beijing, at the expense of throwing their economy roughly into the dashboard.

    That’s not something done lightly. The economic and financial impacts are going to be really harsh. Which means this pandemic is real.

    That’s my thinking.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 11:22am

    #26

    Oliveoilguy

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 572

    Ted Talk on history of Pandemics

    https://ed.ted.com/lessons/how-pandemics-spread

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 2:24pm

    Reply to #25
    nigel

    nigel

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 15 2009

    Posts: 109

    10+

    The r0 Values must be wrong

    Spend 10 minutes in a spreadsheet and plug in the values, I’ve started at 1st December based on reporting on the 1st recorded infection, and I’ve assumed that it takes 7 days instead of the 7 to 10, so these figures are conservative. My conclusion is that an r0 of 3 would account for the current rate of cases, but only if every single one was reported and confirmed, which simply can’t be correct. If we assume an r0 of 4.5 and a 5% rate of reporting (37367 * 5% = 1868 confirmed tested cases out of 37367 actual infections) we come much closer to the current number (2082 confirmed test cases)  in a realistic fashion.

    So either the virus has an r0 of 3.0 to 4.5 (probably 3.5 or higher), or this has been going on for a lot longer.

     

    1st case in china R0 1.5 R0 2.4 R0 3 R0 4.5
    01/12/19 1 1 1 1
    08/12/19 2 2 3 5
    15/12/19 2 6 9 20
    22/12/19 3 14 27 91
    29/12/19 5 33 81 410
    05/01/20 8 80 243 1845
    12/01/20 11 191 729 8304
    19/01/20 17 459 2187 37367

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 2:31pm

    #27

    David Huang

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 20 2010

    Posts: 72

    3+

    I haven’t yet read all the comments on all the threads so I apologize if I’m repeating something others have already noted many times.  It seems to me like the very first thing one should consider doing to increase ones chances of overcoming the disease if caught would be helping your body and immune system be as healthy as it can now by paying more attention to what you eat!  While I know there is lots of controversy over just what is the “best” diet for humans it seems like there is a pretty strong consensus that eating more vegetables, fruits, and other nutrient dense foods is a good idea.

    Another thought should you or someone you know get the disease, or any other type flu for that matter, is that dairy tends to cause the body to generate more mucus/congestion.  So I would absolutely avoid dairy if I was feeling sick to avoid making the congestion situation any worse.  I’ve heard that carrots/carrot juice is something that can have the opposite effect, helping to reduce mucus and break up congestion.  I’m not sure if this is true.  Personal experience confirms that dairy definitely and noticeably increases my mucus levels, but I haven’t noticed clear cut reductions with carrots.  Still carrots are one of those nutrient dense foods.

    I’m not a doctor or anything remotely like that, but I thought I share these thoughts regardless since I haven’t noticed anyone addressing general nutrition to defend/fight off disease.  (I should go look into getting some elderberry syrup though!)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 4:44pm

    Reply to #6
    signalfire

    signalfire

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 18 2009

    Posts: 17

    3+

    Chris, Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding’s Twitter account has apparently been erased: https://twitter.com/seemorerocks/status/1221329217255809024

    And, everyone should take a good long look at this live account of global plane flights, excepting military; it’s horrifying how many flights still coming out of China’s biggest cities into the US and elsewhere: flightradar24.com   Give the map a moment to load; you can search anywhere in the world for live flights; click on the plane icon to see to and from data.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 6:28pm

    #28

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2076

    8+

    Charles Hugh Smith Asks some Damn Good Questions

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    [I shortened his essay.  Might want to read the original.]

    1. Who pays the [workers] wages while a city is locked down?

    What about the thousands of migrant workers who don’t have regular employers? Who pays them? …. Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away?

    4. …[M]any people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. ..[W]ouldn’t it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over?  How will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources?

    5. The typical city has about a week’s supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. … Since the city’s residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. ….. These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn’t possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel…..

    6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with [and isolate them].  This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus, (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus.

    Doctors and Nurses

    During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine.

    Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won’t stop a contagion from spreading.

    If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with.

    Please study the map below before claiming this isolation is still possible.

    7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus? …. [None]…. Isn’t sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan … basically a PR stunt to appear to be “doing something.”

    Building tent hospitals that are poroushealthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.–will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won’t do much to limit the contagion.

    8. If the travel restrictions are [incomplete and] haphazard, then what’s stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?….

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 7:07pm

    #29
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 265

    3+

    Hmmm...No mention of 2019-nCoV on Wuhan BSL-4, Chinese Academy of Sciences websites

    Using GoogleTranslate, here’s the link to the Wuhan National Security Biological Lab (the only BSL-4 lab in China) with its impressive campus and research capabilities. (Source)

    Here’s additional information from the Chinese Academy of Sciences which, as I understand it, oversees the lab in cooperation with the Wuhan municipal government. (Source)

    There may be more detailed, relevant information behind their registration-only pages on these sites.

    There is absolutely no public-facing information on these sites re: the 2019-nCoV. There has been deafening silence from Chinese officials and the MSM regarding the lab’s existence and function throughout this 2019-nCoV epidemic.  All of the research and testing on the virus are apparently coming from Shanghi and elsewhere in China. The lab’s last post is dated 1/09/20, re: institutional evaluation which was apparently positive with no cited safety issues. There’s also an uplifting message from the lab’s director reflecting on 2019 accomplishments and 2020 plans and aspirations.

    I read on one different internet post/article (?) that the lab employed about 226 people. Are they still there working, redeployed elsewhere or otherwise on (a forced) “holiday”? In addition to the theory circulating on the ‘net that the virus may have “escaped” or otherwise originated from the lab, there’s some speculation that higher-up authorities were unhappy about how the Wuhan provincial government and the lab mishandled/covered-up the outbreak early on until it reached epidemic proportions. If so, then expect some heads to roll when this epidemic/pandemic subsides.

    The lab appears to have several international cooperative research relationships. If the lab has effectively been taken off-line, then their colleagues in the US, France and elsewhere would catch wind of this and could shed some light on this obvious communication blackout. Inquiring minds want to know….

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:22am

    #30
    kgroen

    kgroen

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 25 2008

    Posts: 2

    4+

    Average R0 doesn’t tell the whole story

    Helpful article articulating some nuance around R0

    https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=20200126.6918012

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:35am

    #31
    Lisa Mooney

    Lisa Mooney

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 25 2020

    Posts: 11

    2+

    Chris, This is US Data but I would imagine similar in terms of % of ICU beds in China. Yes no cure as it is a Virus, But ICU supportive care IE Vasopressors, Fluids and a Ventilator can = Difference between life and death for some…

     

    HCRIS data: In 2010 there were 2977 acute care hospitals with ICU beds. In these, there were 641,395 total acute care beds with 103,900 ICU beds (16.2% ICU beds/total beds). From 2000 to 2010, the number of critical care beds in the United States increased by 17.8%, from 88,235 to 103,900.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:29am

    #32

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 588

    4+

    The level of apathy...

    No one at my school seems the least bit concerned, save our Chinese students, and I have been indirectly told to stop spreading “fear” by being upfront and honest with my students. Clearly, optimism and hope for medical technology, as well as general apathy, are firmly established here in the States. I wash my hands of it.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:25am

    #33
    wheresdavid

    wheresdavid

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 14 2008

    Posts: 12

    2+

    Interesting articles and videos from The South China Morning Post

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047720/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 9:14am

    Reply to #28

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3316

    3+

    HIV meds used to treat Wuhan patients

    Saw several articles that mentioned that China is using a pair of protease inhibitors (ritonavir and lopinavir – named Kaletra) to treat Wuhan virus patients.  They appear to be doing some good.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/wuhan-virus-china-using-hiv-drugs-in-treatment-plan-for-patients

    Wang Guangfa, a respiratory expert at Peking University First Hospital in Beijing who was infected by the virus after visiting Wuhan to inspect to coronavirus patients, told China News Week earlier this week that his doctor recommended he take the HIV drugs to fight the new virus and they worked on him.

    I’m also guessing that as soon as China has any sort of experimental vaccine, they’ll roll it out, damn the torpedoes, and hope for the best.  Mandate of Heaven and all that.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 9:26am

    #34
    dakota

    dakota

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 26 2008

    Posts: 3

    4+

    Question about Shipments from China

    Chris or others, before all of this news substantially increased over the last few days, I and others may have ordered merchandise that has/had originated in China. The question I have is, is it known whether the particles of this virus can survive outside of a living host, and be viable on non-living material? In other words, should I be concerned with shipments from China? I’ve tried to find an answer but have not been successful.  Thanks!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 9:53am

    #35

    shastatodd

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 16 2010

    Posts: 54

    3+

    another consideration from charles hugh smith

    https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan20/market-coronavirus1-20.html

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:32am

    Reply to #34

    charleshughsmith

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 15 2010

    Posts: 701

    4+

    virus survival on surfaces

    I’m curious about this, too, and haven’t found any data.  There’s a huge range of viral survival on surfaces, from a few hours to a few days or longer.  I found one comment that SARS could survive 2 days. That would put air freight packages as potential vectors of the coronavirus but not items shipped by sea.  But again, I haven’t found any data on this virus.  Prudence suggests anything air freighted out of China should be considered a potential vector until scientific evidence arises that this virus can’t survive 2+ days on surfaces.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:39am

    Reply to #30
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 265

    1+

    Kgroen, excellent article--thank you!

    Dr. Fisman raises valid arguments consistent with Chris’ data integrity concerns regarding R0 and underreporting, especially of “mild” cases among younger age Chinese (vs. currently skewed case reports towards elderly).  The anticipated result will be a marked increase in reported cases not necessarily due to increased transmission (which is likely to happen anyway) but to reporting of previously undercounted younger Chinese.

    Excerpt:  ” Increased age in cases as compared to the population as a whole suggests that younger (likely milder) cases have been under-reported. As such, it would seem likely that at least part of the sudden apparent growth in case counts does not reflect changes in transmission, but rather increasing ascertainment of previously undercounted cases…. given the large size of the epidemic as of the time of writing, some simple back-of-the-envelope math can demonstrate that large numbers of incident cases should be expected in the coming weeks, even in the face of effective control efforts. Successful control of this outbreak would be expected to take many months (again, as was the case with SARS).”

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:46am

    Reply to #30

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3316

    4+

    undercounting cases

    So an “upside” to any sort of dramatic under-counting of cases (due to them not being serious enough to go to the hospital, etc) is that it will end up increasing the denominator in the “case fatality ratio” – the Wuhan virus may not be nearly as deadly as it currently appears to be.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 11:02am

    Reply to #35
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 150

    2+

    The consequences to interruptions to supply chains in healthcare, tech, food, and anything else seems like a discovery process no one wants.  How much inventory do we have here to buffer it?  I thought I had heard Chris or another doc say that the virus can survive for 5 days or so on surfaces because it is in a protective “envelope” which makes it hardier.  I guess the data will come in as time goes on.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 11:18am

    Reply to #35
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 43

    WOW - Great Article by CHS

    Very important thoughts

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 11:58am

    #36

    nancybeck

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 05 2009

    Posts: 9

    3+

    Two sources for kits containing Stephen Buhner's Herbal Antiviral Protocol

    Two companies that have put together the herbs recommended by Stephen Harrod Buhner, an independent researcher and herbalist:

    Montana Farmacy in Eureka, MT http://www.montanafarmacy.com

    and http://www.coronavirusdefense.com in Canada

    I do not know anything about these companies, but I have ordered one of their kits just as “insurance” should the coronavirus arrive in my area.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:18pm

    #37

    dtrammel

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 178

    2+

    One Hand Dirty / One Hand Clean

    Chris has pointed out that the most likely way you will become infected is to touch your hand to a contaminated surface like a door handle, and then touch your faces, eyes or nose. Its easy to unconsciously do just that, especially if you are like me and wear glasses.

    What you could do now is practice the habit of only touching a common surface with one hand, and only touching your face with the other. My thought is to put a big bandage on the back of one hand, and use that as a reminder as you go through the day. No one will question you if you say you cut your hand. Develop muscle memory now before a mistake could cost you.

    Login or Register to post comments

Login or Register to post comments