• Blog
    Wuhan Virus

    ALERT: Coronavirus Pandemic Event Now A Serious Risk

    The prudent are preparing for it
    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, January 23, 2020, 6:36 AM

Note:  An ALERT is only issued when events cause me to take personal actions.  I am preparing for the possibility of a global pandemic that will arrive in my own country.  You should, too.  This is the sort of on-the-spot analysis and reporting that we routinely offer to our subscribers but, due to the nature of this threat, we are making it public.

UPDATE#2 (1.26.20, 2:14pm ET): After reading the below article, you can access ALL of our daily updates, reports, videos and podcasts in our ongoing coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by clicking here.
___________

UPDATE#1 (1.24.20, 12:45pm ET): In addition to the live updates being provided in the Comments section below, we’ve just posted a follow-up report for our premium subscribers covering preparations should this outbreak worsen.
___________

The coronavirus is currently sweeping across China. So far, it has all the hallmarks of a potential true pandemic outbreak.

While it could still (and hopefully will) be contained and burn itself out, the chances of that are slipping by the hour.

If an actual pandemic breaks out, expect the following to happen quickly:

  • Travel within and especially between countries will be restricted if not completely banned
  • Critical shortages of materials will develop, especially medical supplies, doubly especially antivirals.
  • In cities with lockdowns or quarantines, food will disappear rapidly from shelves.

Pro tip: N95 face masks are already rapidly disappearing form Amazon and other retailers.  If you can’t order online, then get yourself down to Home Depot pronto to get a stash of masks for you and your family (something we’ve recommended as a part of routine preparations for years).  However, don’t be a hoarder.  Buy only what you really need.  The time to responsibly stock up was before now.

A Quick Primer On Viruses

When I was getting my PhD through the Duke Medical school, there was a debate as to whether viruses even qualified as being a lifeform.  That debate still carries on.

A virus is a protein encapsulated set of genetic instructions. Just some DNA or RNA surrounded by a complex shell that can ‘dock’ with a specific living host cell.  All viruses completely lack the ability to reproduce themselves.  They require the hijacking of the active replicating machinery of a host cell to reproduce and multiply.

Viruses are everywhere.  A single drop of clear seawater may contain 10 million virus particles on average.  You encounter them everyday.  Your body already has natural immunity against hundreds of different virus types.

The problem comes in when a new virus enters the game, one which your body has not seen before, and against which you have no immunity.

An even bigger problem emerges when ‘the herd’ has not seen it before either and there’s no herd immunity to block its spread.

The biggest problem emerges when such a new virus emerges (usually by ‘jumping’ from a non-human species to humans) has the ability to spread easily between humans.  By contrast, a virus that requires some sort of a host vector such as a mosquito or a tick is much more easily contained.

The Coronavirus

The coronavirus currently in question derives its name from the spiky crown of proteins (Corona = Crown) that are seen under magnification.

It first erupted on Wuhan China, and is thought to possibly have jumped from a snake species to humans:

Wuhan coronavirus may have been transmitted to people from snakes

Jan 22, 2020

A new coronavirus that has claimed 17 lives in Wuhan, China, may have been transmitted to people from snakes, according to a genetic analysis. The snakes may have caught the virus from bats in the food market in which both animals were sold.

This was bound to happen sooner or later. Especially among a tightly-packed human population with a proclivity for eating many different forms of wild animals.

This virus has all the statistical and virologic markers to be a true pandemic – the sort that the world has been luckily spared for many decades. But which nature and history shows us is always an inevitability.

According to the WHO’s guidance document on pandemics, this new coronavirus is already well on its way to being a full-blown pandemic:

We are already at Phase 4.  Things get really serious at Phases 5 & 6.

All we need to move to Phase 5 is for another country to report a sustained outbreak — something that seems all but certain at this point.  Then it will be Game On.

“It’s Contained!”

Early reports on the media have been underselling the severity.  This is expected.

For some reason governments across the world long ago decided that ‘not panicking’ people was more important than providing timely, accurate, risk-balanced information.

The straight-up lying about the Fukushima disaster was one example.

China lied like crazy about the SARS outbreak a number of years ago. And they’re certainly being less than fully revealing about this outbreak.

As of this morning (6:35 am, 1/23/20) there are two major Chinese cities under a full quarantine.  Wuhan with 11 million people and Huanggang with another 6 million people:

Health officials fear the transmission rate will accelerate as hundreds of millions of Chinese travel at home and abroad during week-long holidays for the Lunar New Year, which begins on Saturday.

The previously unknown virus strain is believed to have emerged late last year from illegally traded wildlife at an animal market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

Most transport in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, was suspended on Thursday morning and people were told not to leave. Hours later, state media in neighboring Huanggang, a city of some 6 million people, said it was imposing a similar lockdown.

(Source – Reuters)

Compounding the difficulty for Chinese authorities is that all of this coincides with the Lunar New Year, when hundreds of millions of Chinese typically travel about.

That’s just a recipe for disaster here.

By The Numbers

To truly appreciate and estimate the possible impact of an emerging pandemic there are a few things to know.

First, how lethal is the virus?  That is, how many people die as a result of contracting the virus?  This is called the “case fatality rate” or CFR in virologist lingo.

Second, how easily does it spread between victims?  This measure goes by the name “R0” or “R-naught”, which we’ll get to in a minute.

The CFR of this coronavirus is not really known yet because we don’t trust the numbers coming out of China.  But the numbers we’ve got are not encouraging.  In Wuhan, there are a reported 444 cases and 17 deaths.

That yields a CFR of 3.8%.  There’s also been reports of 555 infections, which would yield a CFR of 3.0%.  Let’s use that, while reserving the right to seriously amend these numbers when better data comes along.

The Spanish flu of 1918 which was the last true global pandemic, had a CFR of 2.5%.  It was horrible and killed an estimated 50 – 60 million people.  True, we’ve got substantially better containment protocols today, but they clearly are not perfect.

If a virus is ‘too lethal’ and kills above a certain threshold, it will burn itself out quickly.  The 3% CFR of this coronavirus is in the ‘sweet spot’ for doing a lot of damage.

Next, it’s the contagious aspect of this particular virus that’s most worrying to me.  Let’s dive into the R-naught value for a minute:

What do R0 Values Mean?

R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It’s a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.

R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven’t been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.

What do R0 values mean?

Three possibilities exist for the potential spread or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:

If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.

If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.

If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.

Importantly, a disease’s R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means:

  • no one has been vaccinated
  • no one has had the disease before
  • there’s no way to control the spread of the disease

This combination of conditions is rare nowadays thanks to advances in medicine.

(Source – Healthline)

Here’s what we know – the R0 of this virus is way above zero.  We don’t have a solid value yet, but our clue lies in the fact that a reported 15 healthcare workers in Wuhan contracted the disease from being around their patients.

These would be people using the very latest in protective measures, too – masks, gloves, proper handwashing, and even full hazmat suits.

The one case in Hong Kong turned into 5 as the entire family of an infected person came down with the disease.

So this R0 is pretty worrying.

Finally, it’s those last three bullet points above that set off my alarm bells here:

  • no one has been vaccinated
  • no one has had the disease before
  • there’s no way to control the spread of the disease

Check, check and check.

Combine those with a high R0 and now you know why China has just clamped down and quarantined two major cities with a combined 17 million people in them.

The Nightmare Begins

My personal nightmare is being played out in those quarantined Chinese cities.  Locked in with possibly contaminated people whom I have to battle and engage with for rapidly dwindling resources.

Already, within hours, reports of scuffles for food have been reported.

(Source)

People didn’t have much time to prepare or react.  It was a matter of hours between “normal” and everything being placed into lockdown:

NZers trapped in China megacity Wuhan as virus spreads

Jan 23, 2020

At least 17 people are dead and more than 500 infected in China alone, as the virus spreads from Wuhan to other provinces and countries.

Public transport in the Chinese mega-city, with a population of more than 11 million, has been suspended. Residents have been advised to stay put as the response to the outbreak ramps up.

Auckland man Mr Li, who didn’t want his full name used, said on Tuesday people were still shopping and travelling, and the streets were bustling with people.

Roughly 48 hours later, the city had gone into lockdown. For him, it started with friends and relatives cancelling planned parties and gatherings.

“The face masks were all sold out. There were queues in front of every pharmacy. The usually crowded shopping malls are entirely different. The shops are all open but there’s barely any customers. The subway stations, which should be noisy and crowded in the New Year’s season, are almost empty,” he said.

He said anyone seen in public was wearing a mask.

“Starting from yesterday, the whole city started to feel more nervous. All the things and all the conversations in our social media group are around the virus infection.”

Li said he didn’t believe it when he first heard about the likelihood of locking down the city, comparable in size to London.

He had been planning to come back to Auckland in two days, but had to start changing his plans unsure when the travel restrictions would be lifted.

“At five o’clock China time this morning, the Chinese Central Television Station Channel One said from ten o’clock this morning, all of the buses, subways, airport – and I’ve just heard that all the motorways – will be closed down temporarily.”

It was just a matter of hours from the first inklings to complete shutdown.

The Chinese authorities are reacting promptly and vigorously because they’ve got the data.  They know how dangerous this all could be if it becomes a full-blown pandemic.  We’ll see if their authoritarian government can manage to suppress this.  But if not, I expect western governments stand even less of a chance.

More:

Coronavirus: panic and anger in Wuhan as China orders city into lockdown

Supermarket shelves empty and face masks sell out as residents retreat indoors

Jan 23, 2020

A sense of panic has spread in Wuhan as the Chinese city of 11 million people was put on lockdown in an attempt to quarantine a deadly virus believed to have originated there.

On Thursday, authorities banned all transport links from the city, suspending buses, the subway system, ferries and shutting the airport and train stations to outgoing passengers.

Nearby Huanggang and Ezhou suspended buses, subways and ferries and shut the airport and train stations to outgoing passengers.

In Wuhan, supermarket shelves were empty and local markets sold out of produce as residents hoarded supplies and isolated themselves at home. Petrol stations were overwhelmed as drivers stocked up on fuel amid rumours that reserves had run out. Local residents said pharmacies had sold out of face masks.

Few pedestrians were on the street and families cancelled plans to get together for the Chinese New Year holiday. Special police forces were seen patrolling railway stations. Residents and all government workers are now required to wear face masks while in public spaces.

“When I saw the news when I woke up, I felt like I was going to go crazy. This is a little too late now. The government’s measures are not enough,” said Xiao, 26, a primary school teacher in Wuhan, who asked not to give her full name.

Conclusion

We’re going to be tracking this on an hourly basis.  Wherever you live you should be taking standard precautions right now.  Stock up on food, get yourself proper face masks, and be prepared should you need to be locked down for days/weeks.

The chance of that happening in your country may yet be small (for now), but it’s well above zero.  So, don’t screw around with this one.

This is the most serious pandemic-worthy risk we’ve come across since SARS.

Of course, as we’ve long advised, you should always be prepared for such an event anyway as part of being a prudent adult.

My own personal remedy kit includes a hefty supply of elderberry syrup which I make from dried berries.  You can buy it as well.  For those who are scientifically-minded there are numerous peer-reviewed, double blind studies showing that elderberry syrup has pronounced anti-viral activities.

See here and here as well as here.

No, elderberry syrup does not prevent one from getting the flu or a cold. But it does knock the symptoms in half, and it reduces the recovery time by half which means it gives you much better odds: 50% x 50% = 25%

With only a quarter of the ‘experience’ a patient has a much better chance for survival, I figure.  I have no idea if it works on this coronavirus, but elderberry syrup has prevented me from getting a full-blown flu or any serious cold for more than a decade.  I swear by it.

Beyond that, your best chance of avoiding catching something involves staying away from people, washing your hands fastidiously, wearing a mask when you have to be around others, properly shaming those idiots who proudly show up to events/work sick and coughing, not touching public surfaces (railings, knobs, etc), and never, ever wiping your eyes or touching your nose or mouth before washing your hands.

We’ll be tracking the breaking developments on this coronavirus outbreak hourly. Check back in with us regularly for updates.

Update 1.24.20, 12:45pm ET: Given the worsening conditions within China and the continued spread of the coronavirus strain to other countries, including the US, we have just released the report Our Recommendations For Pandemic Preparation to our premium subscribers.

In it, we detail the havoc a widespread pandemic can wreak and provide the steps and solutions prudent households should take now in advance of such a crisis.

Click here to read the report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

Related content
» More

205 Comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 7:03am

    #1
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    5+

    Basic info on Coronaviruses

    Here’s the basic info on the coronavirus from the CDC…mostly these are the source of the common cold, and derive their name from the spiky protrusions on their outside coating that is said to resemble a crown (hence “Corona”):

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/about/transmission.html

    Common human coronaviruses

    Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people get infected with these viruses at some point in their lives. These illnesses usually only last for a short amount of time. Symptoms may include

    • runny nose
    • headache
    • cough
    • sore throat
    • fever
    • a general feeling of being unwell

    Human coronaviruses can sometimes cause lower-respiratory tract illnesses, such as pneumonia or bronchitis. This is more common in people with cardiopulmonary disease, people with weakened immune systems, infants, and older adults.

    Other human coronaviruses

    Two other human coronaviruses, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have been known to frequently cause severe symptoms. MERS symptoms usually include fever, cough, and shortness of breath which often progress to pneumonia. About 3 or 4 out of every 10 patients reported with MERS have died. MERS cases continue to occur, primarily in the Arabian Peninsula. SARS symptoms often included fever, chills, and body aches which usually progressed to pneumonia. No human cases of SARS have been reported anywhere in the world since 2004.

    Transmission

    Human coronaviruses most commonly spread from an infected person to others through the air by coughing and sneezing close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands touching an object or surface with the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose, or eyes before washing your hands rarely, fecal contamination

    In the United States, people usually get infected with common human coronaviruses in the fall and winter. However, you can get infected at any time of the year. Most people will get infected with one or more of the common human coronaviruses in their lifetime. Young children are most likely to get infected. However, people can have multiple infections in their lifetime.

    Prevention

    How to protect yourself

    There are currently no vaccines available to protect you against human coronavirus infection. You may be able to reduce your risk of infection by doing the following

    wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds
    avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands
    avoid close contact with people who are sick
    For information about hand washing, see CDC’s Clean Hands Save Lives!

    How to protect others

    If you have cold-like symptoms, you can help protect others by doing the following

    • stay home while you are sick
    • avoid close contact with others
    • cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze, then throw the tissue in the trash and wash your hands
      clean and disinfect objects and surfaces

    Treatment

    There are no specific treatments for illnesses caused by human coronaviruses. Most people with common human coronavirus illness will recover on their own. However, you can do some things to relieve your symptoms take pain and fever medications (Caution: do not give Aspirin to children) use a room humidifier or take a hot shower to help ease a sore throat and cough.

    If you are mildly sick, you should drink plenty of liquids stay home and rest.  If you are concerned about your symptoms, you should see your healthcare provider.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 7:54am

    #2
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    2+

    A great timeline and summary

    The details are still sketchy, but this is a careful summary of what's known from the Imperial College of London's disease specialists.

    Importantly, the period between infection and detection is thought to be 5-6 days.  Another 4-5 days between symptoms and detection.

    They note that the initial report/alert to the WHO was Dec 31st 2019.  Wuhan airport was closed down yesterday, 1/22/20.

    They also noted that "Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day"  So ... 3,301 x 22 days = in excess of 72,000 possibly infected carriers that went who knows where.

    Source - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

    Background
    On the 31st December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [1]. A novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) related to the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome virus (MERS-CoV) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus (SARS-CoV) has since been implicated [2].

    As of 4 a.m. 21st January (Beijing Time) 2020, 440 cases (including nine deaths) have been confirmed across 13 provinces in China, plus suspected cases in multiple other provinces [3]. As of 9:00 GMT 22nd January 7 confirmed cases in travellers from Wuhan with symptom onset on or before the 18th January were detected outside mainland China in Thailand (3 cases), Japan (1 case), South Korea (1 case), Taiwan (1 case) and the United States (1 case) [4–10]. Chinese authorities have also confirmed evidence of human-to-human transmission, as well as 15 cases in healthcare workers [11,12]. Of these cases, four travelled before exit screening in Wuhan International Airport was introduced on 15th January [13], three (South Korea, Taiwan, USA) on or after.

    Using the number of cases detected outside mainland China with who had disease onset by 18th January, it is possible (see Report 1 [14]) to infer the number of clinically comparable cases within Wuhan City that may have occurred thus far. Here we update our estimates to account for the additional international exported cases (7 cases).

    Summary
    We estimate that a total of 4,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (uncertainty range: 1,000 – 9,700) had onset of symptoms by 18th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case) [15].

    Our estimates should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size in the period 12th January to 18th January – delays in confirming and reporting exported cases and incomplete information about dates of symptom onset together with the still very small numbers of exported cases mean we are unable to estimate the epidemic growth rate at the current time.

    This estimate is based on the following assumptions:

    • Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1].
    • There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [16,17]  and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,18].
    • Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [19], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College London to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.
    • Exit screening (which reportedly came into force on the 15th January [13]) had no impact on exported cases reported up to 16th January. Exit screening may have reduced exports in recent days, in which case our baseline prediction may be an underestimate of the true number of cases in Wuhan.
    • We assume all cases in travellers flying to destinations outside mainland China are being detected at those destinations. This may well not be the case. If cases are being missed in other countries, our baseline prediction will underestimate the true number of cases in Wuhan.
    • We now report uncertainty as the range spanned by the 95% confidence intervals of the first three scenarios in Table 1. Thus, our uncertainty range represents uncertainty in key assumptions as well as statistical assumptions.

    Additional caveats

    1. We assume that outbound trip durations are long enough that an infected Wuhan resident travelling internationally will develop symptoms and be detected overseas, rather than being detected after returning to Wuhan. We also do not account for the fact that international visitors to Wuhan (such as the case who was detected in Japan) might be expected to have a shorter duration of exposure and thus a lower infection risk than residents. Accounting for either factor correctly requires additional data but would increase our estimate of the total number of cases.

    2. We estimate the potential number of symptomatic cases with disease severity of a level requiring hospitalisation (both the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were moderately severe). Our estimates do not include cases with mild or no symptoms.

    3. The incubation period of 2019-nCov is not known and has been approximated with the estimates obtained for MERS-CoV and SARS [16,17].

    4. We assume that international travel is independent of the risk of exposure to 2019n-CoV and of infection status. If zoonotic exposure were biased towards wealthier people, travel frequency may be correlated with exposure. Also, some travel might be causally linked to infection status (to seek healthcare overseas) or the infection status of contacts in Wuhan (this may apply to the case detected in Japan) [18]. Accounting for either association would increase the probability of a case travelling and therefore reduce our estimates of the total number of cases.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:00am

    #3
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    2+

    Some more background...

    This is more than a week old, so it's already dated, but the background was particularly helpful to me:

    The city of Wuhan in China is the focus of global attention due to an outbreak of a febrile respiratory illness due to a coronavirus 2019-nCoV. In December 2019, there was an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, Hubei province in China, with an epidemiological link to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market where there was also sale of live animals.

    Notification of the WHO on 31 Dec 2019 by the Chinese Health Authorities has prompted health authorities in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan to step up border surveillance, and generated concern and fears that it could mark the emergence of a novel and serious threat to public health (WHO, 2020a, Parr, 2020).

    The Chinese health authorities have taken prompt public health measures including intensive surveillance, epidemiological investigations, and closure of the market on 1 Jan 2020. SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, avian influenza, influenza and other common respiratory viruses were ruled out.

    The Chinese scientists were able to isolate a 2019-nCoV from a patient within a short time on 7 Jan 2020 and perform genome sequencing of the 2019-nCoV. The genetic sequence of the 2019-nCoV has become available to the WHO on 12 Jan 2020 and this has facilitated the laboratories in different countries to produce specific diagnostic PCR tests for detecting the novel infection (WHO, 2020b).

    The 2019-nCoV is a β CoV of group 2B with at least 70% similarity in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV and has been named 2019-nCoV by the WHO.

    SARS is a zoonosis caused by SARS-CoV, which first emerged in China in 2002 before spreading to 29 countries/regions in 2003 through a travel-related global outbreak with 8,098 cases with a case fatality rate of 9.6%. Nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV was common while the primary reservoir was bats and the intermediary source was civet cats in the wet markets in Guangdong (Hui and Zumla, 2019).

    MERS is a novel lethal zoonotic disease of humans endemic to the Middle East, caused by MERS-CoV. Humans are thought to acquire MERS-CoV infection though contact with camels or camel products with a case fatality rate close to 35% while nosocomial transmission is also a hallmark (Azhar et al., 2019).

    The recent outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a 2019-nCoV in the Wuhan market poses significant threats to international health and may be related to sale of wild animal as game food at the seafood market.

    International Journal of Infectious Diseases

    It's now all but certain that the continued spread of the disease has nothing to do with animals, but is human-to-human.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:15am

    #4
    Jason Wiskerchen

    Jason Wiskerchen

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 17 2011

    Posts: 1075

    3+

    Contagion Movie - Wrong Pig met up with the Wrong Bat

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:20am

    #5
    Bleep

    Bleep

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2017

    Posts: 54

    3+

    Shanghai Closed?

    A friend of mine who lives in Beijing posted that Shanghai is also closed and prohibiting travel in or out. I am trying to contact a few friends in Shanghai to check in the veracity of that claim.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:20am

    #6
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    2+

    "No way of preventing entry if this becomes bigger"

    One case detected so far in Australia.  So a very small worry at this point, same as for the US.

    But the note of caution here is worth "reading between the lines."

    ‘I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago’: Growing fears of spreading coronavirus

    Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Professor Brendan Murphy has said the risk of a large-scale outbreak is low, but admits there is ‘no way of preventing this getting into the country if this becomes bigger’.

    Professor Murphy’s declaration came amid fears a man who arrived in Australia from China with flu-like symptoms may have contracted coronavirus.

    Queensland Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said earlier the results may not be known for several days as authorities require further medical information from China, but he has since been released from home isolation.

    ‘At the moment we can only do a generic test for coronavirus,’ Dr Young said.

    ‘We can’t do the specific test for this specific virus because we haven’t seen it before, so we’ve got to develop the specific tests to be able to say it’s this particular virus.

    ‘We don’t have the primer yet. The World Health Organization released [the primer] after China gave them specifics, so that’s now available.

    ‘We need to obtain the primers that have been developed against this specific coronavirus.’

    The man was originally identified for testing after presenting to his GP with flu-like symptoms last month, leading Queensland authorities to ask GPs to collect specimens from any suspected cases and to send them to Brisbane.

    It is believed the man has family near the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the current outbreak started.

    The virus has now spread to Chinese cities other than Wuhan, including to places hundreds of kilometres away. Cases have also been reported in Japan, South Korea and Thailand.

    Some scientists believe the disease, which is more closely related to SARS than any other coronavirus found in humans, may have already spread more widely than is reflected in the official figures.

    ‘For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries would imply there would have to be many more cases than have been reported,’ Professor Neil Ferguson, a scientist who specialises in analysing disease outbreaks, said.

    ‘I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago.’

    But Professor Murphy has been clear in his belief that Australia is at low risk.

    ‘There is no need for alarm, and the risk to the Australian public from this novel coronavirus remains relatively low,’ he said.

    Professor Murphy added, however, that stricter screening measures would apply to direct flights travelling from Wuhan to Sydney in response to the ‘rapidly emerging situation’. The flights will be met by border security, biosecurity and staff from NSW Health.

    ‘Australia has well established mechanisms to respond to ill travellers at points of entry,’ he said. 

    Professor Murphy also warned that, because 2019-nCoV has a one-week incubation period, it may not be possible to prevent its spread to Australia in the event of a large-scale outbreak.

    ‘You cannot absolutely prevent entry into the country of a disease like this,’ he said. ‘There’s no way of preventing this getting into the country if this becomes bigger.’

    So...the spread of this disease is faster than expected for the stated number of cases.  Either the stated number is too low or the transmission rate is very high.

    Either way, it means this is a very communicable disease, so pick which way makes you feel better and believe that.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:22am

    #7
    DanielleW

    DanielleW

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 16 2016

    Posts: 11

    Elderberry syrup

    Chris,

    Where do you get your elderberry syrup? I would love to have some on hand- just in case. Any details would be greatly appreciated. 😃

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:28am

    #8
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    3+

    First evidence of Human-To-Human spread

    The earliest definitive report of human-to-human spread I can find is from Jan 14th.

    Evidence of human-to-human spread
    Yesterday [Jan 14th], Wuhan's health department noted a family cluster of a husband who worked at the market and his wife, who had not been at the market, which appears to be the first indication of limited human-to-human spread.

    Today, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Wuhan authorities told visiting Hong Kong health officials that three members of the same household were among the 41 cases. They include a father, his son, and a cousin who ran a seafood stall at the market at the center of the investigation and got sick at the same time, suggesting that they may have been exposed to the same source. The market also sold live animals such as poultry, bats, and marmots, along with wildlife parts.

    The report also gave new information on environmental testing at the seafood market, following reports yesterday that some samples were positive for 2019-nCoV. One of the Hong Kong experts quoted in the SCMP story, Chuang Shuk-kwan, MBBS, said so far, only sample collected from the seafood section of the market tested positive, but experts don't think the chance of a seafood source is high and are looking for the source in animals.

    In a media briefing transcript posted today by Hong Kong's government, she said some of the cases were also clustered around the area of the market where seafood was sold. "So, they are chasing it, where the source is. But the investigation is still ongoing so there is no conclusion yet."

    A Chinese tourist tested positive for 2019-nCoV a few days ago while visiting Thailand, after frequenting a different market in Wuhan, heightening suspicions that the source of the virus may be other markets, as well. Preliminary environmental testing at other markets has not turned up any positives.

    (Source)

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:56am

    #9
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    1+

    A random person with a fever in Shanghai...

    Taking it very seriously.  Impressively, actually.

    Will it be enough?  From a random Twitter feed:

    My cousin in China sent me this - Shanghai Hong Qiao airport found a person with fever from Wuhan.  This is how they deal with this person

    (Source)

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:57am

    #10
    Jeff

    Jeff

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 17 2012

    Posts: 68

    3+

    Elderberry Syrup Link

    Here is some good elderberry syrup, tastes good to.
    https://abbyselderberry.com/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:09am

    jturbo68

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Aug 04 2009

    Posts: 112

    How is this different than the ebola outbreaks?

    I dont recall if there was an alert when the ebola outbreaks were going a few years back.  Is this more serious?

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:17am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    2+

    Re: How is this different than the ebola outbreaks?

    I dont recall if there was an alert when the ebola outbreaks were going a few years back.  Is this more serious?

    I did not issue an alert around ebola, and never even got close.

    This is far more serious.    Seems to spread as easily as the common cold.  Ebola has some other either vector based or mechanical means of spreading (like direct contact with fluids).

    Put a person with ebola on a plane and there's a damned good chance nobody else comes down with it.   Put somebody with an infectious phase coronavirus on a plane and there's a damned good chance several to many people come down with it.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:22am

    #13
    gyurash

    gyurash

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 07 2016

    Posts: 45

    4+

    Cash or gloves

    The ubiquitous use of keypads, touch screens and scribe pens at store checkouts, with continuous lines of people touching them, makes these very likely places to contact transmit viruses. Might a prudent action be to wear gloves, pay with cash, or both?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:38am

    #14
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    6+

    It's Coming, No Doubt About It

    This from today:

    China is offering to refund domestic flights and train tickets nationwide. An estimated 246,000 travelers arrived in Wuhan either via plane or train on Thursday before all transportation in and out of the city was shut down. The number of people leaving the city is currently unknown.

    The U.S. State Department on Thursday reiterated its level 2 travel advisory, indicating travels should “exercise increased caution.” The department earlier on Thursday errantly raised its travel advisory and urged citizens to “reconsider travel,” but reverted that change. The agency, in a statement, said its website “briefly displayed an inaccurate version of the Advisory due to a technical error – we apologize for any confusion. Again, the Advisory level has not changed.”

    U.S. health officials began screening passengers flying from China at major international airports this weekend, and confirmed the country’s first case on Tuesday. A Washington state man is quarantined with the virus in a hospital outside of Seattle after flying back from Wuhan, U.S. health authorities said.

    (Source - NBC)

    This is so stupid that it's really hard to wrap one's head around it.  I mean if this was 1850, okay, but it's not.  It's 2020, or so I've been told.

    Let me state this plainly; screening for symptoms of inbound passengers is totally, completely useless for a virus with a long incubation period.  Exclamation point!

    That's the thing about incubation periods - they don't have symptoms.  There's nothing to screen for, so screening does nothing.

    The US State Department isn't even willing to say that traveling to Wuhan is a bad idea.  That might - I don't know - piss off the Chinese authorities, or compromise some airlines profits.

    Again, plainly; if the US State Department cared at all about such things as human life or preventing a pandemic they'd put a travel ban in place, or at least their highest level of warning.

    I can only imagine the poor CDC officials and scientists trying unsuccessfully to get a few lunkheaded politicians to listen.  It's the plot line of a lot of disaster films.

    Given all this, there's no chance at all that the Wuhan virus isn't going to travel far and wide, and probably already has.  It's probably arriving right this minute at Gate 22.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:44am

    #15
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    7+

    Priorities

    Just in case there was any doubt:

    Health officials hesitated Wednesday to designate the virus as a global emergency, trying to contain the fast-spreading illness without unnecessarily spooking global trade. 

    Global trade >>> human life.

    How is that in any way morally defensible?

    There are days when I actively cheer for the demise of the system, and this is one of those times.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:50am

    Doug

    Doug

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 01 2008

    Posts: 1408

    3+

    Elderberries

    Make your own.  We grew elderberries in our own garden.  In our biozone elderberries grow vigorously and are abundant with little or no care.  The only problem is that they risk becoming weed shrubs.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 10:13am

    #17
    Thetallestmanonearth

    Thetallestmanonearth

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2013

    Posts: 330

    5+

    High dose vitamin C

    This is anecdotal at best, but completely harmless and a worthwhile precaution.  My wife started reading a bunch of mommy blogs that recommend extremely high doses of vitamin C to prevent and reduce symptoms of colds and the flu.  We have two toddlers and last year we were sick constantly.  We've started giving our kids 50mg/day while they're healthy and 200/mg a day at the first sign of a cold.  I personally take 1,000mg/day and 2,000 when I'm going to be traveling or around sick people (a lot recently).  I combine this with elderberry and raw garlic if I feel a twing of a cold coming on.  So far this year I have had one minor cold.  The girls came down with the flu and I bumped my vitamin C intake up to 3,000mg/day for a week.  I was covered in snot and literally thrown up on multiple times.  I could feel the first signs of the flu, but they never got hold of me.  We're now 2 weeks past it and I feel fine.  It might be placebo or coincidence, but I'm going to keep it up.  The maximum recommended dose of VitC is 2,000mg/day, but I am 6'10 and 230 lbs so I figured I could push it a bit.  Above that there is some risk of developing kidney stones.  I was skeptical at first because I had heard that your body can only absorb so much and beyond that point you're just making expensive pee.  VitC is not fat soluble and therefore passes quickly with water rather than storing in your cells.  My wife convinced me to try anyway and I'm glad I did.  My current hypothesis is that I'm creating an acidic environment which is unwelcoming to viruses. I've read that families with kids average 6-7 colds per year.  So far we're about half way through the cold season and I've only had one mild cold.  The kids have had none.  I've been on airplanes constantly this year too.  Yes, my kids got the flu, but we were giving them considerably lower mg/kg doses of vitamin C and frankly, toddlers have terrible hygiene (like the worst...they're so gross!) and less developed immune systems.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 10:28am

    #18

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2024

    Are elderberries considered “invasive?”

    We’re planning to plant them this summer. Will they take over? Is there any way to keep them under control?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 10:37am

    Doug

    Doug

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 01 2008

    Posts: 1408

    Mow them

    I mowed them when I saw new shoots emerging.  An herbicide would probably work too, but I avoid them.

    In a technical sense, I don't believe they are "invasive" since I think they are a native species.  They are easy to find around the edges of woods, but the berries are smaller and less abundant in the wild shrubs.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 11:23am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    2+

    Re; elderberries

    We’re planning to plant them this summer. Will they take over? Is there any way to keep them under control?

    It's a perennial bush.  Or shrub.  Pretty big at maturity...10' tall and maybe 8-10 feet wide.

    So somewhere where they won't block other things.

    Need/love 'wet feet.'  Stream banks are good.  Wet spots in the lower lawn are ideal.

    No, they don't spread much.  I'd be thrilled if they did.  I've propagated all mine from cuttings.  I plan to be "Johnny Elderberry" at my new home planting them up and down the stream nearby.

    Birds love the berries. Also a native species, so not invasive in the technical sense.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 11:35am

    #21

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 613

    7+

    To give this a personal element

    I teach many teenage students who are from China (our school's largest international population, in fact), and one of them has parents and extended family in Wuhan as we speak, while most of the others are glued to their phones and communicating with their families back in China constantly. They say they are "fine," but after years of reading my Chinese students I can tell you they are unsettled. Not panicked, but unsettled. I expect that will change as things worsen, and I've notified my otherwise clueless administration to keep an eye on them.

    As an aside, I've been reading some borderline racist and culturally-biased stuff out on the Twittersphere about China and the Chinese, so I just want to put it out there that they are people who love their kids, are trying their best to get by day-to-day, and pretty much want to sail through life fairly happy without getting killed in any kind of horrible way. Watching the children worry deeply about their loved ones back home, during the holiday that means so much for them, snaps one back into the reality that these are real people, just like us. I wish the Chinese well in this, and hope the loss of life is minimal.

     

    I can only imagine how bad things are getting in Wuhan already, though, and it is a stark reminder that we should brush up on what materials and preps we have in place, so as to jump on it now. If I'm guesstimating correctly, and if this thing blows open, we have at most a few weeks before the shit hits the fan here. Get ahead of the herd!

     

    So, PPers...what medicines would you recommend we have on hand in quantity? I'm not a medical guy.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 11:51am

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 347

    6+

    Elderberry Granny

    A coworker's grandmother drives around the area near her rural Pennsylvania home on an ATV in early summer scouting for blooming elderberries with binoculars.  She returns later in summer and harvests enough berries to allow her great-grandchildren to eat peanut butter and elderberry jam sandwiches almost every day of the year.  It's their favorite.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 11:54am

    #23

    msnrochny

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 04 2010

    Posts: 49

    3+

    Well this is interesting! Wuhan is ground zero of the Coronavirus outbreak.

    "Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens." The location of this BSL-4 rated lab? Why, Wuhan.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/real-umbrella-corp-wuhan-ultra-biohazard-lab-was-studying-worlds-most-dangerous-pathogens

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 12:05pm

    nancybeck

    nancybeck

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 05 2009

    Posts: 22

    4+

    Elderberry leaves and bark

    There is a Facebook post by Stephen Harrod Buhner today regarding specific herbal antivirals for the coronavirus. Elderberry leaves and bark are actually more specific than the berries. He has written a book entitled Herbal Antivirals: Natural Remedies for Emerging & Resistant Viral Infections.  Also wrote Herbal Antibiotics: Natural Alternatives for Treating Drug-Resistant Bacteria along with 20+ other books. I love his work. He is a researcher and independent thinker. Check out his website www.StephenHarrodBuhner.com and sign up for his FB posts.

    That said, we make and take elderberry syrup in the winter when exposed to others with respiratory illnesses or when we feel that run-down feeling before something hits you. We don't take it all the time, just when we feel we need it for a boost.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:09pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    Count on PP for breaking news and well-researched, accurate information and analysis

    First!  😉

    Good on Tyler Durden if he's a member of the PP tribe and helping to keep others informed.

    Only 1 lab in China, located in Wuhan, can safely handle new coronavirus

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/coronavirus-wuhan-forum/page/2/#post-435200

    Possible concerns that new Coronavirus escaped from Wuhan BSL-4 facility?

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/coronavirus-wuhan-forum/page/2/#post-435210

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:17pm

    timot78

    timot78

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 18 2010

    Posts: 35

    2+

    Alert Level: 3 by CDC

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/novel-coronavirus-wuhan-china

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:19pm

    #27
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    4+

    Grim Toll

    It's easy to wander over to Twitter and find example after example of people collapsing in  the streets of Wuhan.

    The toll is grim:

    (Source)

     

    (Source)

    ++++++++++++++++++++++

    Also, despite the WHO furiously denying there's anything here to be concerned about, China is furiously building massive new hospital tent structures:

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:34pm

    #28
    Grover

    Grover

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 15 2011

    Posts: 745

    5+

    N95 Masks

    I stopped by an auto parts store today to get some masks. I asked the clerk where they were and he took me right to them. There were plenty available. He asked me what I was doing and I said, "blowing insulation in the attic." He recommended the N95 masks. I bought a box of 20. They were a buck a piece in bulk. Individually, they were priced at $1.59. I'll be outfitting close friends if and when it becomes necessary.

    It's best to panic before the herd becomes aware.

    Grover

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:39pm

    #29

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    4+

    Stage 1 Preparation

    Its been a while but as soon as this story broke I knew where to go.

    I'm going to start phase 1 of my prep JUST IN CASE. I have a 2 year old son and a 5 month pregnant wife. Phase 1 includes the following:

    - LOADS OF WATER

    - I ordered 2 months of formula for my son. He drinks HIPP Combiatik from Germany. Good stuff

    - LOADS OF DIAPERS AND TOILET PAPER

    - PROPANE TANKS (ABOUT 2 OF THEM)

    - LOADS OF CEREAL AND ALMOND MILK

    - MASKS AND GLOVES

    - ELDERBERRY SYRUP (THANKS CM)

    Any other recommendations?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:45pm

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2024

    2+

    Lethality

    It’s very early in this crisis, but I saw one source that said the mortality rate was only 2%. I do know however that even in the most recent Ebola crisis supposedly reputable sources were dividing the number of current deaths by the number of current known cases and mistakenly coming up with a much-lower-than-reality number. They failed to factor in that many who have Ebola today won’t die for 7-14 days. So does anybody have a source even vaguely attempting to come up with a corona virus mortality RATE?

    Chris, I’ve seen many people “collapsed” in the street looking just like the people in those pictures you posted. How do we know they’re not just drunk or high (the usual explanation in my Philly PD experience)? Just because medics respond in Tyvek and masks doesn’t mean anything necessarily. In the affected areas, that has probably become the new universal precautions until they can definitely prove the patient has something other than corona. And God help the poor drunk who diverts badly needed medical resources once they find out he’s just drunk or high! At the very least he’ll find himself unceremoniously dumped on the hospital’s sidewalk or locked up in a cold, concrete police cell, perhaps with an instructive slap upside of the head.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:52pm

    #31
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 364

    1+

    Plant elderberries yesterday

    In my part of the world elderberries (Sambucus nigra) are "relatively easy" to grow in cooler parts of the country. There's at least 7 varieties, all requiring moist, humus-rich soil. They come into full production about 3 years after planting. They're not common here, though. I shall see what indigenous plants may be available, although they're not common either.

    The Vitamin C alternative works for my wife and me. We haven't had colds or sniffles for many years. However, it's not the perfect prophylactic. We picked up a nasty virus on a visit to Sydney 6 months ago, which did not respond to any amount of garlic and Vit C, and only time got rid of it.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:57pm

    #32
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    4+

    First Hand Account of Being Infected with Wuhan Virus

    Here's how hard-hit an otherwise healthy 23 year old got by the virus...sounds miserable!

    This was translated by a Reddit user from a Chinese newspaper:

    Source - Reddit Thread

    Feeling better, but digestive functions are still terrible

    Shenyidu: How are you physically?

    Wang Kang: This is the sixth day since my release. I can’t do anything labor heavy. I can’t exercise much. But I’m getting better by the day. Sometimes I run out of breath when talking, and I have trouble breathing deeply. Normal breathing is fine for me. I live in Wuhan. I can actually take care of myself now. My parents are taking care of me, too. But I rarely leave the house.

    S: Did the doctors prescribe you with any medications?

    WK: The hospital gave me two kinds. One for chest activation, one for anti-flu. They prescribed me 4 months for the chest activation, only 5 days for the anti-flu drug. Just need to finish this box. That’s also the one I’ve been having in hospital. I had some digestive pills this morning.

    S: Still feeling upset in your stomach?

    WK: My digestive functions are still poor. Had some Jiaozi yesterday. Caused acid reflux and bloating. Still feeling it now.

    S: What subsequent treatment and examination are planned?

    WK: I need to go back for examination in a month. The doctors at Jinyintan told me to go back as soon as possible if something’s wrong. They are very responsible, nice people. I’d like to thank them. They are relocated from other hospitals in Wuhan, and some are experts in Beijing. They’re short-staffed and working around the clock. 16 hours a day. From dawn til dusk.

    Thought it was common cold, diagnosed after two transfers.

    S: When did you start to feel that something’s wrong with you?

    WK: I started to feel sick on Dec 24. The symptoms were dizziness, headaches, weak and sore limbs. I thought it was just common cold at the time, because it felt like one. When I went to work the next day I was limp and powerless. I took sick leave and got a cab home. Went to a hospital nearby for treatment. I was in hospital on 25th. Got IV without delay. IV right after I got admitted. I didn’t have a fever at first. After 3 days, something like on the 27th, I started to have a fever.

    S: Did you stay at the hospital?

    WK: No. I would get IV at the hospital every day and then go home, just like you would for a common cold. On 27th I started to have a fever that won’t go away. IV did not help and it got worse. I could hardly move. Terribly fatigued. I walked around a bit and my blood oxygen level dropped really low. I had trouble breathing, so I could do nothing but lying in bed. Got my blood checked, did the routine blood test and it came back normal. Got my blood and liver functions checked the next day. My deaminase level has been high since college. I told the doctors that, because I didn’t know about the pneumonia. Didn’t pay attention to those things. I was worried about other diseases. It takes a day before the results get back and it was the weekends, so I came home. The IV didn’t work so I stopped taking it. Laid in bed for two days.

    S: How did you feel over these two days?

    WK: I had no appetite. Couldn't eat anything. If I ate I threw up anyways. I had some congee. And some water.

    S: How was the result that came back on Monday?

    WK: The report said there was some problem with my liver function. So I thought it was my liver. Thought to check again at Xiehe Hospital. I took a couple of days off at home, and then went to Xiehe in the morning of the 1st. I still had a fever at hospital so I got some medicine. I started sweating after taking the medicine, but the fever was still there. Usually it was 39 Celsius, but got to 40, 41 Celsius at times. Drugs helped, but the fever came right back each time.

    S: What tests did they give you at Xiehe?

    WK: After being admitted at Xiehe, I got a full body examination at endocrinology. On Jan 2, my blood oxygen level dropped to 60% which was life-threatening. I got a chest X-ray. The X-ray room was a couple of buildings from my ward, so the doctor had to push my bed all the way there. The doctor told my mom to keep talking to me along the way so that I don’t fall asleep. You get drowsy when the blood oxygen level is low. The oxygen generator couldn’t be used on the way, so they had to use an oxygen tank. After taking the X-ray, someone asked me where I worked, what route I took to work, where I lived, things like that.

    S: How did you respond?

    WK: I told him I work in sales near Hankou railway station. It was not far from my home and only a few hundred meters away from Huanan Seafood Market. I rode my bike home every day. I never went in the seafood market, but I was at a grocery nearby on 22nd. It was raining that day. I didn’t bring a rain jacket or an umbrella. I thought I caught a cold from that. The early symptoms of pneumonia and common cold are identical.

    S: What are the test results from Xiehe?

    WK: 11am on Jan 2, they told my mom I might have to be transferred to Jinyintan, so she started to gather my stuff. At noon they told us it might not be necessary. They had a video conference about my case for about 2 hours. My mom was worried they won’t keep me. She didn’t know about the new pneumonia; she thought it was something serious. The doctor told her not to let me sleep, to keep talking to me. She was worried and scared. Neither of us knew anything about Jinyintan Hospital.

    S: How did you end up at Jinyintan Hospital?

    WK: They officially transferred me in the afternoon that day, with a note about suspicions of pneumonia. At around 7pm, Jinyintan Hospital picked me up in an ambulance. They hooked me up with oxygen, blood oxygen monitor, EKG and stuff immediately when I got admitted. I was sent to ICU at around 8:40pm and got my blood tested. My sister wanted to get in but was stopped by two doctors and two security guards. ICU is completely quarantined. I was and then sent to severe case ward where my sister could get in. I owe my life to my sister’s care.

    S: What did she do?

    WK: There were a lot of patients in quarantine and the nurses were overworked. Patients like us had high fevers, no appetite, low blood oxygen level, so my sister had to feed me with food and water, and took care of my wastes. The hospital gave her a mask. She stayed with me for more than 10 days. Slept on a makeshift bed of seven chairs and a blanket. Just slept like that.

    The fever was gone the second day I got to Jinyintan Hospital. From 1st to 3rd my sister fed me with water and medications. I got fever and sweat and the fever dropped fast. I couldn’t life a cup to my mouth then so I laid in med and my sister fed me with a straw. She had to prop up my dead.

    Around the 10th I was taken to another ward. I had enough strength to move and take care of myself, so I asked my sister to leave. My nephew was sick. She didn’t get a change of clothes over the 10 days because she couldn’t leave after she got in. When she left, they disinfected her and ran some tests before releasing her. My dad and mom was with me. But they didn’t let them to get in at Jinyintan because they were old. My sister wouldn’t allow them to go in either. We listened to the doctors the whole time.

    S: What did the doctors ask you to do?

    WK: The doctor told my dad to get some human albumin, because I couldn’t eat for a few days and needed nutrition. We lived in Hankou. My dad went to Wuchang and bought 5 bottles. But they didn’t have refrigerators for patients under quarantine and human albumin must be kept refrigerated. He brought 5 and the hospital only took one. They said to bring the other 4 home and keep refrigerated. We live very far from the hospital, so my mom got a hotel room nearby, just to keep those albumin. She delivered one bottle to me every day. Each bottle was about 500 CNY, 50 mL or 75 mL, a tiny bottle, yellow. 5 days later I could eat, so they were no longer needed.

    From tens of IVs per day to getting out of sick bed

    S: How did the doctors treat this? What’s the treatment plan?

    WK: There’s no specific treatment for this, no fast solutions. They must activate you own immune functions to combat the virus and it will damage other organs. The doctors and nurses were nice. They’ll tell you what each drug was for. IV and anti-inflammatory drugs were to activate pulmonary functions. They also gave me injections to protect my stomach and my liver, and other organs, but especially intestines and stomach. There were other drugs for pneumonia but I don’t understand much.

    S: So most of the drugs were delivered via IV?

    WK: Yes, a lot of them. Tens of bottles per day for the first few days. On 8th and 9th it was around 8 bottles a day. Sometimes they gave me some oral drugs, but the doctors tells you when to take them and when to stop. They require full cooperation. Sometimes they switched the drugs. I don’t know what exactly. But they said it’s to activate pulmonary functions.

    S: What did they reduce the amount of drugs?

    WK: Because gradually my blood oxygen level got back to 90. They began to decrease the oxygen concentration and flow. They took me off oxygen and EKG after my heart rate and blood pressure got back to normal. I think it was because I was young. I’m only 23. All my organs work for me.

    S: Did you receive serious intestinal and gastric damage?

    WK: How do I describe this. When I first got to Xiehe, on the first day, my dad got me Shaomai for breakfast. There was some black pepper in it. I could handle spices. I had no trouble with hot pots, things like that. But on that day I took one bite into the Shaomai, there was some black pepper in it. My whole esophagus and stomach were in discomfort the whole morning. And I had to relieve myself in bed. Peeing is fine, I could hold it in. But it was humiliating to poop in my bed. I didn’t poop for five days. Not since I got to Xiehe. I only went to the bathroom on the 5th or 6th when they took off my EKG. There was a toilet so I could sit. I was shitting blood. I thought it was a hemorrhoid but it wasn’t. It was intestinal damage. And I also ripped my anus because I didn’t shit in 5 days.

    I was so miserable. I couldn’t hold it in but I didn't want to do it in bed. I took off the oxygen, asked the nurse to take me off EKG, and walked slowly. Each step caused a coughing fit. Actually I had the strength to get out of bed, but I coughed with each motion and it was hard for me to breath. It took me 5 minutes just walking there. I was coughing in the bathroom too. Can’t push.

    S: Why did you switch wards?

    WK: Before the 10th they placed everyone in either severe case ward or ICU. ICU is completely isolated. It’s for people whose lives were at risk. But the numbers were growing and there weren't enough wards, so they had to separate severe cases and light cases. I was almost cured, but still counted as a severe case. At the time only Jinshuitan was taking patients with unknown pneumonia in Wuhan. I was transferred to another severe case ward on the 10th. I could walk in the room, pour water, and bathe myself. I could do all that.

    S: Who shared a ward with you?

    WK: For the second severe case ward there were 4 people, including me. There was an old guy, 62 years old, an old woman, 68 years old, and another guy, 42 years old. I spent 5 days there before being released. Those 3 barely ate anything and nobody took care of them. When the nurses were feeding them they couldn’t take anything in. The meals at the hospital were nutritious, but tasted bad at first. On the first day it was terrible. The second day it was good. Beef, lamb, chicken, duck, fish, pretty balanced. Yogurt and fruits, too. But they didn’t have the appetite.

    Feeling better after release

    S: When did you think you are pretty much fine?

    WK: After I could move by myself. I was getting better by the day. I didn’t cough much in the hospital after that.

    S: How did the doctor notify you that you could leave?

    WK: On 13th, I took some tests and chest CT. Ran some blood work too. The doctor notified me on 14th after giving me an injection. Said my chest looked good and to get my family here on 15th. The doctor told me to avoid crowds, rest, and take my medications on time.

    S: How do you feel after being released?

    WK: I was released at noon. I had a craving for sesame paste noodles. Haven’t had it in so long. So I walked to have some. I had half a bowl. I could walk by myself, but not very fast. I got cramps at the beginning. Not a lot of strength in my legs. My mom could walk faster than me despite being much older. I wasn’t overly confident, even after being released, because I stayed in bed for about 20 days. Didn’t exercise at all.

    The second day I forced myself to take a walk near my home. My dad and mom were worried and didn’t want me to go out, and kept bugging me to come back. When I came back in the afternoon I felt much better than the first day. I had more strength, and could walk faster. Less fatigued, too.

    S: How do you feel now?

    WK: I’m gaining strength, which is good. I still have trouble with digestive functions. I can’t run but can walk for a very long time. I get sad and cry sometimes because my family were so worried. My mom is more than 60 years old. She cried every day at home. My 4 uncles, 2 aunts, and my aunt-in-law were kind to me, as well as my neighbors. After I got well they sent me stuff. They sent me milk and money, and came to visit. When I was sick, my friend went to Xiehe to visit but the doctor wouldn’t let him in. He looked through the glass door and cried upstairs.

    S: Is your sister OK after taking care of you?

    WK: She caught a cold after getting out. I hurried her to hospital to check and they said it was common cold.

    S: Did you realize how serious it was when the doctors told you it was pneumonia?

    WK: I’m not on my phone that much. When my friends told me I might’ve been infected with that I said I wouldn’t be so unlucky. I only realized how serious it was when I watched the news after I was released. When I was in hospital I thought it was just an illness because I never got so ill before.

    S: How much did you spend on treatment?

    WK: About 20000 CNY. 10000 CNY in Xiehe Hospital. I barely spent anything at Jinyintan Hospital, just 3000 for deposit and 300 for meals. They didn’t charge me for anything else.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:58pm

    #33

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 347

    3+

    my preps so far

    • 2 boxes of 20 N95 masks plus one N100 respirator (particle filter only) to add to the one I have already.  Home Depot had plenty.  Walmart supercenter was out of stock.
    • 1+ lb dried elderberries and 3+ lbs honey to make syrup as needed (or a decoction sans the honey for my wife who avoids all things sweet).
    • Plenty of nonperishable foods stuffs sufficient to to meet the family's varied dietary needs.
    • Reviewing Stephen Harrod Buhner's facebook post from today and considering some/all of those herbs.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 1:59pm

    #34
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    Maximum fine of 5,000 yuan and 6 months in prison if quarantine order is violated

    Repost from "Treyfish" " on Flutrackers:

    Quarantine order execution process

    2020-01-08
    ◆ Patients seek medical treatment from public / private hospitals or private clinics

    ◆ Whether the doctor's diagnosis and treatment meet the two major requirements of isolation:

    1. Have been to Wuhan within 14 days before the onset of illness;

    2. Symptoms of fever, pneumonia, and upper respiratory tract infection

    ◆ If so, the doctor must fill in the report form and call the CHP to report

    ◆ After analysis by the Centre for Health Protection, an isolation order will be issued by the Director of Health when necessary to force patients to isolate

    ◆ Patients must be sent to a public hospital for medical treatment. If the quarantine order is violated, the maximum fine is 5,000 yuan and the prison is 6 months.

    (see:  https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/822041-discussion-thread-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus?p=822277#post822277 )

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 2:16pm

    Doug

    Doug

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 01 2008

    Posts: 1408

    1+

    Elderberry wine

    Hey, does elderberry wine work the same as jam?  I just bottled 30 bottles a couple months ago.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 2:28pm

    #36
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    3+

    The Science - A bat and a snake got together...

    This is a little scary.  This reads exactly like a thriller novel on a pandemic.  A bat somehow infected a snake which then infected a human...and here we are:

    The current outbreak of viral pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel coronavirus designated 2019‐nCoV by the World Health Organization, as determined by sequencing the viral RNA genome.

    Many patients were potentially exposed to wildlife animals at the Huanan seafood wholesale market, where poultry, snake, bats, and other farm animals were also sold.

    To determine the possible virus reservoir, we have carried out comprehensive sequence analysis and comparison in conjunction with relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) bias among different animal species based on existing sequences of the newly identified coronavirus 2019‐nCoV.

    Results obtained from our analyses suggest that the 2019‐nCoV appears to be a recombinant virus between the bat coronavirus and an origin‐unknown coronavirus.

    The recombination occurred within the viral spike glycoprotein, which recognizes cell surface receptor.

    Additionally, our findings suggest that snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019‐nCoV based on its RSCU bias resembling snake compared to other animals.

    Taken together, our results suggest that homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein may contribute to cross‐species transmission from snake to humans.

    (Source)

    Amazing to have these results so quickly.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 2:34pm

    #37

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2365

    3+

    2 levels of threat: 1) The virus itself and 2) the disruption to "the system"

    The systems upon which we depend includes stuff like:

    • The guy who delivers fuel oil by truck for a our home heaters
    • The grocery store clerks that make food distribution possible
    • The doctors and nurses who staff the overcrowded clinics and hospitals
    • They guys who keep the water and nat gas system tuned up.

    If things get scary out there and they all decide to stay home for a while, the disruptions will cascade as increasing numbers of parts falter.

    One author describes the concept of a tipping point, where so many foundational system parts become unreliable that bigger collapse happens.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 2:39pm

    #38
    JimOz

    JimOz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 08 2019

    Posts: 20

    2+

    Masks useless, need eye goggles too

    A woman has been filmed devouring a bat while at a market at the centre of the deadly coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. WARNING: Graphic

    Masks won't stop you getting sick. You also need goggles over your eyes.
    Can wearing masks stop the spread of viruses?
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51205344

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 3:58pm

    #39
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 396

    5+

    Not much helps

    Face masks have not been shown to help.  Vitamin C seems to help but only people doing strenuously exercise like marathoners.  There is some evidence that zinc may help in reducing duration and intensity of symptoms.  However, be aware that the intranasal preparation can permanently alter sense of smell.  Personally, I take zinc at the first hint of viral symptoms, but would never take the intranasal kind.

    Wash your hands,  Wash your hands,  And, wash your hands some more.  Never let your hands get near your face....trust me, easier said than done.  I walk around the hospital and see nurses and all sorts of people touching their face.  I even get on to them that they should never do that in the middle of flu season yet the next day I’ll see the same thing.

    BTW, saw this article today on “Tax-exempt” healthcare systems.  Everyone should spread the link to this article to everyone they know.  I work for one of these big healthcare corporations and this is exactly what’s going one, and I’m utterly disgusted.

     

    https://www.medicaleconomics.com/article/how-nonprofit-hospitals-get-away-biggest-rip-america?fbclid=IwAR2ji8AC1N1OD623PsLa-SCKdzVPlE4LLCMnMe79L-in6NyHYRBsWZ_7VBE

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 3:59pm

    agitating prop

    agitating prop

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 28 2009

    Posts: 353

    1+

    speaking of bats

    I'm thinking bats are the most likely vectors. Reptiles are more likely to transmit fungal infections to humans.

    A jump from a snake to a bat seems unlikely, simply because snakes are cold blooded and bats the very opposite extreme. As it is winter in China, the snake's temperatures would likely be fairly low, particularly if these weird meat markets are open air.

    The penchant the PRC Chinese have for eating the most god awful stuff and calling it a delicacy, is beyond me.  And the dog meat festivals are gruesome and cruel and btw, not traditional. They are a recent phenomenon.

    I guess it comes from a tradition of past famines. Sorry if this sounds racist.  We have customs that are equally strange. Botox, breast augmentation, butt implants, for example.

    Anyway, all of my siblings live in Vancouver, which could end up North America's ground zero due to all the back and forth travel between China and Vancouver. So I am a little concerned but not in full freak out mode, yet.

    But have to develop an action plan with them, if things get worse. I feel safe on this island. We have almost zero back and forth between here and China...but still...that doesn't insure complete safety at all.

    1. Home
    2. News

    Why Bats Carrying Deadly Diseases Don't Get Sick

    Gambian Fruit Bat

    When they fly, bats increase their energy expenditure (metabolic rate) and body temperature, resulting in body temperatures similar to those seen in other mammals that have a fever (100 to 105 degrees Fahrenheit), the researchers said. This suggests that flight protects bats from infection in the same way that fever protects mammals — by boosting their immune response, the researchers said.

    If the high metabolic rates and high body temperatures that accompany flight activate the immune system, then flight could be the ultimate explanation "for the evolution of viral infections without overt signs of illness in bats," the researchers wrote in a paper in the May issue of the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.

    https://www.livescience.com/44870-bats-viruses-flight.html

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 4:15pm

    pinecarr

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2008

    Posts: 1141

    1+

    Re: Elderberries

    The birds love my elderberries so much I never get them; they strip the bushes clean before the berries are even ripe!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 4:16pm

    #42
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    3+

    The UK has a plan

    Whereas China is able to wheel out a sick passenger in a bubble-boy containment facility from the airport, the UK is apparently suffering from post-empire stagnation.

    By comparison, here's the UK plan for treating coronavirus victims - I believe they call this the "Sir Robin":

    Run away!  Run away! 

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 4:25pm

    #43
    agitating prop

    agitating prop

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 28 2009

    Posts: 353

    1+

    More on bats as food.

    Bat dishes are also known in the southern regions of China, while in Cantonese cuisine the bat meat is considered an exotic dish. In Taiwan, in some shops it is possible to find fried bats. Also known in Sichuan cuisine is a soup made from undigested mosquito from bat droppings.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_as_food

    What could possibly go wrong??

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 5:04pm

    #44

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

    3+

    R0 initial estimates

    FYI

     

    From the World Health Organization (links)

     
    Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 5:06pm

    #45
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 215

    2+

    Nature article on Wuhan's bioresearch lab

    who need wet markets with this in the area? the article is from 2017

    https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 5:20pm

    #46
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 396

    2+

    Solid rundown...

    https://youtu.be/AajszIH2ahs

    https://youtu.be/xu-i3CevMSQ

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 5:25pm

    #47
    JimOz

    JimOz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 08 2019

    Posts: 20

    2+

    It's worse than SARS

    The Chinese Centre for Disease Control has identified 15 hospital staff as being infected in the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan city, but two sources with direct knowledge of the situation said doctors and nurses were being stricken at a much faster pace.

    …One patient – a suspected super-spreader, or highly virulent carrier of the disease – is thought to have infected 14 staff in one hospital alone, Yuen Kwok-yung, a doctor and infectious diseases specialist at Hong Kong University, said at a press conference.

    A Wuhan doctor said at least one dormitory building at a hospital in the city was being used to house quarantined medical workers.

    “Definitely more than 15 medical workers are infected,” the doctor said, declining to give his name because he was not authorised to speak publicly about the issue.

    “We are worried about infected colleagues, but for the rest of us there is no other option but to carry on.”

    The Hubei Health Commission confirmed on Tuesday that five medical workers from the nearby city of Huanggang were also infected.

    and:

    A leading Chinese virology expert has warned that the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic could be 10 times as bad as the Sars outbreak that killed almost 800 people around the world in 2002-03.

    Guan Yi, director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at Hong Kong University, said in an interview with Caixin magazine on Thursday that after a brief visit to the central China city on Tuesday and Wednesday, he “chose to become a deserter” and left.
    “My conservative estimate is that this epidemic could end up at least 10 times the scale of Sars [severe acute respiratory disease],” he said.

    Inside Wuhan Hospital:

    https://twitter.com/johnnyh/status/1220441478545256449

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 6:01pm

    #48
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1242

    7+

    why?

    Does anyone know why these things so often seem to come out of Asia?

    No special precautions here.  Always stocked up on food, fuel, and water.  Always try to get adequate sleep, stay hydrated, and eat well (especially avoiding refined carbs in all their forms).  Sugar is definitely not good on my immune system.  Always try to maintain good micro-nutrient intake (including vitamins C and D and zinc) and consume pro-biotics (in the form of yogurt, kefir, sauerkraut, kimchi, miso, kombucha, etc.).  Always stocked up on anti-viral/anti-microbial supplements/substances including N-acetyl cysteine, olive leaf extract, and monolaurin for prevention; Sambucol/Sambucus (proprietary elderberry formula), oregon oil (for gargle),  and AHCC for treatment; Robuvit for recovery.  Have colloidal silver on hand for special situations such as ventilating lung fields with a mist if things get really serious.  Always try to exercise but avoid doing it to the point of absolute exhaustion (keeping in mind ARE response to stress: adaptation, resistance, exhaustion) or when it just doesn't feel right.  Always wash hands.  Our problem now comes from occasional exposure to our first grandchild who is 400 miles away and already gave my wife the most serious bug I think she's had in our entire marriage of 40 years (come Sunday).

    I don't worry on masks but have some NP95s on hand.  If it gets bad, we're not going out.  Have a flamethrower on hand to burn everything and anything within 100 yards of The Redoubt (just kidding).

    I don't get too worked up about these things since my experience of 41 years in health care suggests that those who seem to be the most worried about these things seem to be the ones most prone to contracting them.  Oh yeah.  Meditation and prayer always help to keep mind and spirit healthy.  If I learned nothing else in those 41 years it's that proper management of your emotions and mental state seems to be at least as important as anything physical.

    Getting back to trusting your intuition and extra-sensory perceptions, my wife and I had a scheduled month long trip to 10 Asian countries.  Even though initially we were very excited about seeing this part of the world, for some reason, we both kept feeling uneasy about it.  Finally, because of circumstances that arose coupled with this uneasy feeling, we cancelled the trip.  With what's going on now, I don't know what we were picking up on but I'm glad we acted on it.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 6:13pm

    #49
    JimOz

    JimOz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 08 2019

    Posts: 20

    1+

    Why? Easy

    Does anyone know why these things so often seem to come out of Asia?

    One of the only places on the planet where exotic wildlife is consumed routinely, often undercooked.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 6:27pm

    #50
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    7+

    Fourth Generation Transmission Reported

    There's a big jump in the probability of a sustained outbreak when third generation transmission happens and yet another when fourth generation transmission is part of the game.

    Looks like that's on the table now:

    Emerging data on the new virus circulating in China adds to evidence there is sustained human-to-human transmission in the city of Wuhan, and that a single case was able to ignite a chain of other infections.

    The World Health Organization reported Thursday that there have been at least four generations of spread of the new virus, provisionally called 2019-nCoV, meaning a person who contracted the virus from a non-human source — presumably an animal — has infected a person, who infected another person, who then infected another person.

    It’s not clear from a WHO statement whether transmission petered out after that point, or whether further generations of cases from those chains are still to come.

    The WHO said the current estimate of the reproductive rate of the virus — the number of people, on average, that each infected person infects — is between 1.4 and 2.5. To stop an outbreak, the reproduction number has to be brought below one.

    (Source)

    I'm still seeing the R0 as being reported as between 1.4 and 2.5.  I cannot confirm how they got this figure yet, or find an original source to see if it was measured or modeled.

    Next - now it's eight cities.

    China has effectively quarantined eight cities — home to tens of millions of people — to try to contain spread of the virus. The move comes as much of the country is traveling to be with family to celebrate the Lunar New Year, which is Saturday. Guangdong province, which has reported rising numbers of cases, has declared a public health emergency.

    I'm going out on a limb here to suggest that China would not be quarantining tens of millions of people without cause.

    One thing that caught my attention was noting that even though more than 800 have contracted the disease (a reported 800, that is),  some 25 have died while 34 are reported to have recovered.

    Hold on there...we went through this with ebola.  One cannot develop a CFR by dividing those who died by those who are currently ill.  You need to wait until it's all over and then divide those who died by everybody who caught the disease and later recovered.

    Here we see that 34 have recovered and 25 have died.  To me that suggests something more lethal than 3%.   That would align with the Chinese authorities' freaking out.

    Again, I don't really trust any of the numbers so who the heck knows?  Just have to keep sifting the news to see what comes of it.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 6:39pm

    #51
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    1+

    Latest numbers from China

    • Hubei province, total case count went from 444 to 549, death count from 17 to 24

    • nationally, 830 confirmed, 177 severe

    • 25 death total, another 34 people recovered/discharged

    • 1072 case suspicious

    • total people under watch 8420

    • (Source)

     

    If true, then the numbers really suck.

    177/830 = 21.3% "severe."

    25/(25+34) = a 42% fatality rate.

    I'm sure that's way too high because, well, it just is.   But it suggests that the fatality rate is pretty damn high.

    Again, we don't know how many people have been miscounted in either direction, nor have much confidence that the true numbers are being reported.

    Just parsing what we've got.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 6:46pm

    #52
    JimOz

    JimOz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 08 2019

    Posts: 20

    Getting worse ...

    Doctors collapsing in hospitals, patients in plastic boxes

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 7:01pm

    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 396

    1+

    Animals & population density

    ao,

    Why Asia?  Population density and density of animals for consumption in less sanitary conditions.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 7:08pm

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 4938

    6+

    Asia population density

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 7:47pm

    #55
    Time2help

    Time2help

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2338

    2+

    China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

    "The coronavirus in China is spreading, and largely could have been prevented. A town 7 km from where the virus was discovered in Wuhan had a state run banquet with 100,000 people eating off of the same dishes. This was 2 days after 49 cases were confirmed in Wuhan, China. The Chinese government is trying to save face, and now it is backfiring."

    - laowhy86 (youtube handle)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 7:58pm

    #56

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 613

    2+

    The numbers

    I feel as if the numbers are less important right now (because we can’t trust them anyway), and instead focus on the reaction. In my mind, the images I’m seeing and reactions the CCP is taking tell me this thing is way, way deadlier than they are saying. If not, then they are popping pimples with broadswords for no reason.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 8:37pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    Underreporting due, in part, to availability of tests for proper diagnosis

    Apparently the new coronavirus-specific nucleic acid test kits were not developed and distributed to Wuhan and other cities and provinces until on/about Jan. 16th, which likely contributed to undercounting of cases initially.  Source

    Per 1/21/2020 CDC update, "CDC has developed a real time Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR) test that can diagnose 2019-nCoV. Currently, testing for this virus must take place at CDC, but in the coming days and weeks, CDC will share these tests with domestic and international partners through the agency’s International Reagent Resourceexternal icon." Source

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:08pm

    #58

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 749

    3+

    Thieves Oil

    We use the essential oil called “thieves” when traveling on airplanes to clean our hands and then we cup our hands to our face and breath in through the mouth and nose. I feel like it might kill germs but this is obviously anecdotal.

    Supposedly....this might be total BS.....this oil vapor was used by people robbing the catacombs where they needed protection from disease. Hence the name thieves oil. It has a very strong essence.

    I just ordered some on Amazon with spray tops.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:09pm

    #59
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1242

    3+

    thanks for the info

    Population density alone wouldn't seem to be the cause.  Otherwise, NYC would be generating epidemics.  Animal density alone also wouldn't be the cause.  Otherwise factory farms would be generating epidemics.  The combination of the two would seem to up the ante a bit and certainly, the addition of unsanitary conditions would up it even more.  I know times have changed dramatically but an old timer I knew who served in the Marines in China just prior to WW2 said he didn't realize such filth and squalor could exist (and he grew up in a poor farm family during the Depression).  Then consuming strange animals less than well cooked would seem to up the ante even more.  I still wonder though how these diseases are "created".  I guess the amalgamation of conditions noted by posters here creates the optimal condition for viruses to mutate into new and strange forms.

    I wonder about personal hygiene habits though.  The Japanese have high population density living areas and eat a lot of raw foods (though, admittedly, not of the same strangeness and variety as the Chinese) but don't seem to have these same problems.  They do, however, seem to be very fastidious about personal hygiene.

    So my takeaway is, live in a low population density area, live in a low density housing/family situation, keep your drinking and washing water separate from your sewage and garbage, let your food animals have plenty of breathing and foraging space, realize you're safer with plant foods than animal foods, don't eat things raw that should be cooked, don't eat things that most non-starving people would avoid, and be careful about your personal hygiene (but not to the point of being an obsessive-compulsive germophobe).

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 9:21pm

    #60
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    Hong Kong sets-up two "quarantine camps" to separate families, contacts; more camps possible if needed

    Hong Kong authorities have identified 2 confirmed cases of new coronavirus and 7 suspected.

    They've set-up two "quarantine camps" in anticipation of additional cases. Source

    Hong Kong "Health Secretary Sophia Chan said on Wednesday that close contacts of patients will be sent to these camps, and once inside families would be kept apart from each other.

    She said the government would meet on Thursday to decide whether further such camps should be made available." Source

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 23, 2020 - 10:09pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    Underreporting: Wuhan Health Officials still ramping-up capacity for timely, accurate testing

    Sparky1 question:  China's only BSL-4 facility is located in Wuhan--"ground zero" for an estimated 70% or more of the confirmed/suspected new coronavirus cases. Why are the health authorities/hospitals not sending the tests to that facility for processing? Throughout this epidemic the Chinese authorities consistently do not mention the existence or function of the Wuhan BSL-4 facility. Very curious. 

    Note that only 6,000 of the 30,000 planned test kits have been distributed to hospitals as of 1/23/2020.  I read from excerpt below that tests are currently being processed from 10 hospitals in batches of 200, with plans to ramp up to batches of 2,000 when full distribution and capacity is reached sometime in the future. The number of cases are sure to increase with more widespread and timely testing.

    "Reply of Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Committee on Several Issues Concerned by Citizens. Published by: Wuhan Municipal Health Commission | Published: 2020-01-23 17:22:11" [edit, bold added]

    Question 3. "Many hospitals report that there are no results within a few days after the specimens are submitted for inspection, which affects the rapid diagnosis. What is the reason? How to improve the detection speed next?"

    "Answer: As the country has incorporated pneumonitis of the new type of coronavirus into a Class B infectious disease and adopted Class A management, the detection of samples of this type of pathogen is managed in accordance with highly pathogenic  microorganisms (Class 2), and the relevant samples are tested and transported. It must meet the relevant requirements of biosafety management, and pathogen-related experimental activities should be carried out in a biosafety laboratory with the corresponding protection level."

    "In the early stage, the sample detection process for suspected cases was as follows: The first-patient hospital passed a standardized pre-test and triage, combined with clinical examination, laboratory inspection and chest imaging examination, confirmed the suspected case after sampling by the expert group, and sampled the disease. The control center will transfer the samples to the city's disease control center, and the city's disease control center will transfer to the provincial disease control center for nucleic acid detection. More than 200 samples can be detected every day. (Before January 16th, there is no kit in our province, and it needs to be sent to the national designated testing institution for virus isolation and nucleic acid detection.) It is estimated that it will take about 2 days from the start of sampling to the return of results (January 16th) Before, the samples had to be sent to the testing institution designated by the state of Beijing, and the results would take about 3-5 days to return).
    In order to meet the needs of the current prevention and control situation and increase the speed of testing, upon requesting the consent of the relevant higher authorities, since January 22, the city has designated various designated treatment hospitals, counterpart assistance hospitals for fever fixed diagnosis and treatment hospitals, and the city's disease control center. Waiting for biosafety laboratories with corresponding protection levels to carry out the detection of pathogenic nucleic acids of related samples (the first batch of a total of 10 institutions), it is estimated that nearly 2,000 samples can be detected every day when all are run. To this end, the city plans to urgently transport 30,000 kits to the designated testing institutions, and has so far issued 6,000 copies." Source

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:15am

    #62
    JimOz

    JimOz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 08 2019

    Posts: 20

    2+

    Oh oh

    some infected patients aren’t showing a fever, a symptom governments around the world have been using to screen for the pathogen.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-23/china-expands-travel-limits-who-says-virus-remains-local-crisis

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:23am

    #63

    Eannao

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2015

    Posts: 204

    9+

    Great service Chris

    Chris,

    Just wanted to say thanks for this alert. I had been reading the news reports, but not really registering the risk until I read your report. I live in London, so I'm getting into prep mode. Thanks so much for flagging this and also making it a public alert.

    Regards, E

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:37am

    #64
    macro2682

    macro2682

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2009

    Posts: 352

    2+

    Who eats bats?

    Why are people buying bats at a market?  Ugh.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:57am

    bethgreenwood

    bethgreenwood

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 19 2011

    Posts: 11

    5+

    Coronavirus and the immune system

    Chris, could you speak to the issue of sugar consumption and the immune system in relation to viral infections? In my clinical practice as an RN (currently going on 51 years) what I have consistently seen is that those who have a high sugar intake are more likely to become sick and to take longer to recover. While strategies such as handwashing and masks may help with disease spread, a strong immune system is at least as important. Thanks.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 6:12am

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 192

    4+

    Diet & The Immune System

    Hi Beth,
    Here's an excerpt from Stephen Harrod Buhner's book Herbal Antivirals.  Although he doesn't speak to the issue of sugar, he does offer suggestions about how to strengthen the immune system through diet.  On his Facebook page is also offering an extensive herbal protocol for the Corona virus..
    Cheers,
    Suzie

    One of the great lessons from the AIDS epidemic is the realization,
    among the medical establishment, of the necessity for a healthy
    immune system. Among those with infections such as tick-borne
    encephalitis, influenza, Lyme, mycoplasma, and bartonella (as examples)
    researchers have constantly noted that the healthier the immune
    system, the less likely one is to be infected and, if infected, the less
    severe the course of the disease.
    The immune system is an “organ” just as our lungs and livers are
    and there are things you can do to keep the immune system healthy.
    Regular touching is one of them, such as receiving Swedish massage
    on a weekly or monthly basis. Certain foods do help immune health as
    well. Some of the best foods that support immune health are:
    • Yogurt. Regular intake does result in fewer sick days. The body’s
    white blood cell count increases substantially and the GI tract
    bacterial community remains very healthy, which also helps. Kefir
    can also be used.
    • Oats and barley. Farm animals given a mix of the two have many
    fewer infections, including those from influenza. (And yes, in spite
    of rumors to the contrary, we actually are animals, too.)
    Garlic. Although not as strong an antibiotic as I had formerly
    thought, regular garlic intake does boost immune function — in
    one study, those taking garlic were much less likely to catch colds
    and flu.
    • Selenium-rich foods have been found to help clear influenza infections
    from the body. Selenium is found highest (in descending
    order) in Brazil nuts, fish (tuna, cod, halibut, sardines, flounder,
    salmon), poultry (chicken and turkey), sunflower seeds, shellfish
    (oysters, mussels, shrimp, clams, scallops), meat (liver, beef, lamb,
    pork), eggs, mushrooms, whole grains, wheat germ, onions, garlic,
    asparagus, broccoli, tomatoes. One ounce of Brazil nuts (usually
    just called “nuts” in Brazil) will supply 544 mcg of selenium — you
    don’t need many; one Brazil nut can supply a whole day’s supply
    of selenium. To give a comparison, tuna fish contains 68 mcg per
    ounce, cod 32 mcg per ounce, turkey 27 mcg, sunflower seeds 23,
    oysters 22, and so on.
    • Chicken soup. Yes, it does work.
    • Black tea. It significantly increases the immune system’s interferon
    levels. Green tea will also be of benefit.
    • Zinc-containing foods. Zinc is an essential mineral, especially in
    immune function. It enhances the actions of many of the immune
    system’s actors, including T cells. Zinc is highest in oysters, wheat
    germ, liver, seeds (highest in sesame, tahini, pumpkin, squash, and
    watermelon seeds), roast beef, dark chocolate and cocoa, lamb,
    peanuts, garlic, chickpeas. To give you an idea of levels: Oysters
    concentrate zinc (and copper as well). One medium oyster contains
    about 13 mg of zinc, 3 ounces of wheat germ contains 17 mg,
    calf liver has about 12 mg per 3 ounces, sesame seeds contain about
    8 mg per 3 ounces, and so on.
    • Mushrooms. But not the usual store-bought variety. Shiitake and
    maitake can both be used in cooking, and they are both very good
    for raising immune function, primarily due to their high levels of
    polysaccharides. Their polysaccharides raise immune function
    considerably when taken as a regular part of the diet.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 6:48am

    #67

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 347

    4+

    More from the video

    • At least one person with no mask.
    • Hallway converted into a very crowded waiting room
    • Makeshift furniture including office chairs, children's plastic chairs and an outdoor lounge chair (like at a swimming pool).
    • Not enough blankets - a few people have blankets from home.  Some have their jackets over the sheet as a blanket.

    All signs of total overwhelm.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 6:55am

    #68

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2024

    7+

    Peak trust

    Of all the things we talk about here on PP.com, I’m convinced the rapidly declining levels of trust everywhere is the most important for when The Collapse is going to “start” and how bad it’s going to get. Too bad we don’t have charts that measure trust. One of these days a critical mass will be reached and then it’ll be Mad Max.

    “Happy Hunger Games. And may the odds be ever in your favor.”

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 7:36am

    #69

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    2+

    Very little media coverage

    Outside of the internet not seeing or hearing much about this at all. Even at work all I got was blank stares. From what I gathered people aren’t taking this serious due to the previous scares like sars, swine flu and Ebola which amounted to nothing for us here in the US.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 7:43am

    #70

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 347

    Time to move outside the pay wall?

    Given that twitter video and your comment on it, Chris, perhaps it's time to move at least some of the discussion outside the paywall.  The evidence in the video combined with the totally inadequate containment policy points to a significant risk of global pandemic.  Maybe it's important to get this to a wider audience?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 7:51am

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 4938

    5+

    This article IS outside the paywall

    Quercus wrote: Chris, perhaps it’s time to move at least some of the discussion outside the paywall.

    This article and all the Comments to date ARE outside the paywall. Everything we've published on the Wuhan coronavirus since the start of the outbreak has been publicly available.

    That said, we are about to release a follow-up report for our premium subscribers.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 8:09am

    Dave O

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 23 2011

    Posts: 29

    7+

    Appreciation for PP

    Thank you, Adam and Chris and all PP staff.

    I lurk mostly on the forums and read and learn and am very grateful for you pushing this thread to everyone.

    Double checking physical preps now.  Mental/emotional/spiritual state will be interesting if things progress.

    Anyone in the Ft Lauderdale area can reach out to me on locally produced Elderberry and other herbal meds.  A Permie herbalist brother is local.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 8:27am

    #73
    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 166

    5+

    more for your consideration

    This is simply information sharing.  No claims on efficacy.

    If no free copy exists at Pubmed, type the title into https://scholar.google.com/ to see if a free pdf exists online somewhere

    SARS and MERS: recent insights into emerging coronaviruses

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27344959

    Overview of Acute respiratory distress syndrome

    https://www.thoracic.org/patients/patient-resources/resources/acute-respiratory-distress-syndrome.pdf

    Everyone, even healthy young people, have immune gaps.

    https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2019/08/bloom-flu-single-mutation.html

    Our results raise the interesting idea that there might be person-to-person variation in how viral mutations affect our immune system’s ability to combat flu, which means that the same viral mutation might have different effects for different people,” said Dr. Jesse Bloom, the computational biologist at Fred Hutch who led the study.

    Elderberry may be useful! Yeah!

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24433341

    Sambucus nigra extracts inhibit infectious bronchitis virus at an early point during replication

    CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that S. nigra extract can inhibit IBV at an early point in infection, probably by rendering the virus non-infectious. They also suggest that future studies using S. nigra extract to treat or prevent IBV or other coronaviruses are warranted.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31142304

    In vitro antiviral activity of fifteen plant extracts against avian infectious bronchitis virus (coronavirus).

    Conclusions: Many extracts of plants acted against IBV prior to and during infection, but the most effective were those of M. piperita (mint), T. vulgaris (thyme) and D. canadense/ Desmodium canadense/showy tick trefoil .  Lemon balm, sage, catnip, several others helpful)

    Herbs with some action (in vitro….lab Petri dishes) to coronavirus (curated list by Stephen Buhner)

    Scutellaria baicalensis/ Chinese skullcap

    Houttuynia cordata/Chamelean plant

    Isatis indigotica/tinctoria/Woad

    Glycyrrhizin: constituent from Licorice species

    Most research focused on SARS using herbs/formulations based on TCM/traditional Chinese medicine

    An in vivo study:

    An evaluation of the additive effect of natural herbal medicine on SARS or SARS-like infectious diseases in 2003: a randomized, double-blind, and controlled pilot study

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18830453.  Free PMC link

    Antiviral compositions for the treatment of infections linked to coronaviruses

    https://patents.google.com/patent/US20190307722A1/en

    The invention is also concerned with a pharmaceutical or veterinary composition for its use in preventing and/or treating a MERS-CoV (Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome) coronavirus infection, characterised in that it comprises, in a suitable pharmaceutical vehicle, at least one compound chosen from apigenin, berberine and monensin, or a combination of at least two of these compounds.  Developed by : Institut National de la Sante Et de la Recherche Medicale (inserm} Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique CNRS Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale INSERM

    Oral Ribavirin for the Treatment of Noninfluenza Respiratory Viral Infections: A Systematic Review.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26228937

    Do not expect Vitamin C to save the day

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31573637

    Effect of Vitamin C Infusion on Organ Failure and Biomarkers of Inflammation and Vascular Injury in Patients With Sepsis and Severe Acute Respiratory Failure: The CITRIS-ALI Randomized Clinical Trial.

    In this preliminary study of 167 patients with sepsis and ARDS/acute respiratory distress syndrome, a 96-hour infusion of vitamin C compared with placebo did not significantly improve organ dysfunction scores or alter markers of inflammation and vascular injury. Further research is needed to evaluate the potential role of vitamin C for other outcomes in sepsis and ARDS.

    Nebulized reduced glutathione to reduce oxidative damage to lung tissue

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2249747/

    The Treatment of Pulmonary Diseases and Respiratory-Related Conditions with Inhaled (Nebulized or Aerosolized) Glutathione

    Not studied in RCT yet, though.

    What decreases Immune compétence?

    Immunodeficiency: immunosuppressive meds, cancers, pre-exisitng chronic bacterial or viral infection: Lyme, mono/EBV, hepatitis.

    Underlying inflammation: due to elevated blood sugars, sedentary habits, obesity, poor diet, pre-exisiting disease (lung, kidney, liver, etc)

    Vit A, D, E, Selenium, zinc, B vitamins: riboflavin, thiamine, niacin, pyridoxine pantothenic acid, B12 deficiency

    Sleep deficient

    Natural killer cell suppression from folic acid, processed foods with added synthetic acid.

    Sucrose, high fructose corn syrup suppresses white blood cell activity (immune cells)

    Imbalance in hormones (thyroid, cortisol, sex hormones, etc)

    Diet high in saturated fats

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 8:44am

    #74

    robshepler

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 16 2010

    Posts: 157

    1+

    CDC report 1-24 am

    https://www.cdc.gov/media/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 9:11am

    #75

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2365

    23+

    Don't go to the ED unless home treatments fail [edited 3/19]

    Home treatment of febrile Influenza Like Illnesses/Respiratory Infection

    [This is a very educated group and most are well versed in this.]

    During outbreaks of viral illness, the ED will be a mad house. Stay away if possible.  Recommend strong attempts at self-treatment at home.  Stay out of the hospital unless truly needed.

    • Tylenol 650-975 mg [edited to remove ibuprofen.  also called acetaminophen, paracetamol and APAP] for fever, body aches, headache, chest wall soreness. This is a miraculous drug for the misery of ILI. It also helps to sort out the miserable from the seriously sick (see below).
    • If not vomiting repeatedly, you can drink water. “Drink until you pee.” Lots.
    • Electrolytes in water if diarrhea is a part of fluid losses.
    • If incessant coughing, Nyquil, [Delsym] or equivalent.

    The hospital ED will be a miserable place during a flu epidemic.  Long waits, no pillows or blankets. No snacks.  No sympathy from the staff!!  Sleeping on the floor of the hallways.  Remember that the ED staff is probably sick also.

    A few situations where hospital care IS needed.

    1. Intractable vomiting (>6-8 times) or vomiting with diarrhea. IV fluids and anti-emetics will help when not able to hydrate by mouth.
    2. Chest pain and shortness of breath with fever, IF associated with fast pulse and low oxygen saturation. Might be pneumonia. Chest x-ray. Supplemental oxygen if oxygen is actually low. Measure pulse rate an oxygen saturation (see below).  In children, fast breathing at rest, even after good fever control, points towards pneumonia.
    3. Severe headache even after big doses of Tylenol and hydration. Might be meningitis. Spinal tap needed. IV antibiotics might help. Don’t even think about spinal tap until tylenol dose has been in body for 2 hours—everyone with the flu has a terrible headache.
    4. Urinary symptoms. UTI can give a ILI, especially in children and women.
    5. Wheezing with cough. May have an asthma-like response to the infection. Albuterol (and maybe steroids) may help. Uncommon.

    Equipment list for home treatment of ILI:

    • Costco sized bottle of Tylenol (Use the big dose)
    • Watch with second hand to measure pulse rate and respiratory rate.
    • Pulse oximeter, $29 from Walmart or Amazon. This device will save you an ED trip.  Recommended!  Pic below.
    • Big tumbler for water.  Drink and refill often.
    • Electrolyte powder (mag and K) in water if have diarrhea.
    • Disinfectant wipes.

    General Immune system support as outlined by many above (vita c, vita D3, plant antioxidants, Zn, Se, N-Acetyl cysteine, etc).

    Q: What is the etiology of my ILI/URI?

    A: It doesn’t matter. Treatment approach is the same.

    -----------------

    Lots of bugs cause ILI/URI.  Most treated the same way. One example.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 9:11am

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 215

    3+

    thank you greendoc

    what a great summation of possible home remedies and references. since dehydration seems to be an issue for some people with this bug I am going to keep sugar on hand for oral rehydation solution.

     

    this UVA has several different recipes for different tastes/ages

    https://med.virginia.edu/ginutrition/wp-content/uploads/sites/199/2018/09/Homemade-Oral-Rehydration-Solutions-9-2018.pdf

     

    Does anyone know if this things causes and over reaction of the immune system, aka cytokine storm?  I have read that it was part of the problem with bird flu, the immune system overreacted to the infection.  Obviously this is not the flu but would like to know and will keep searching.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 9:24am

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 347

    oops

    I saw "alert" and just assumed it was inside.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 9:28am

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 159

    1+

    Reports I see say it's in the US

    Out in the middle of nowhere in a small college town in SW WI students returning from China have been monitored; not quarantined.  Not promising.

    https://patch.com/wisconsin/milwaukee/6-wisconsin-students-screened-coronavirus-after-china-trip

    Here in the midwest we are getting local reports on TV/radio news about things like this possible contamination.  I haven't heard much talk about it however.  Unfortunately this location is 20 mi from my "bolt hole".  On my way out to get the face masks.  Thanks for telling us what to ask for.  Will look for the elderberry also.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 9:47am

    #79

    shawns333

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 30 2011

    Posts: 38

    3+

    More of the obvious...

    'They’ve got it…and pretty much chirping crickets as far as I am concerned.   The sham “fever checking” on arriving planes?  That’s criminally insufficient.  It’s anti-science.  Might as well hand out flat earth pamphlets with every forehead scan.'

    Indeed. And, what about the airports that are not even tracking arrivals? They mention major airports like SFO, ORD, ATL, etc. What about others that have direct flights from China? Here in Silicon Valley, even our quaint SJC has multiple direct China arrival flights every day.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 9:50am

    #80

    travissidelinger

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 17 2010

    Posts: 138

    3+

    Bring it on!

    Okay, so there is a virus going around. A CFR of ~3.8% doesn't sound that bad. If we consider that average American we know, I would estimate the number of people with weakened immune systems across our population to be much higher then 3.8%. A lot of people simply eat inflammatory junk diets, don't exercise, are over stressed, and don't sleep good. Maybe in China those percentages are different, but those low percentages are probably not including a lot of healthy people. Let's also consider the percentage of our population that are artificially kept alive by pharmaceuticals and medical augmentations (such as oxygen tanks and auto injections). Add in too young children, pregnant, and the elderly. So if you are in one of those categories, you should be worried.

    If you are not in one of those categories, then what about making a case for "Bring it on and lets get this over with". It certainly sucks to get the flu, but it sucks way more when you are not ready for it. So stock up on the elderberry syrup, take your vitamin C and D, making some good homemade soup, don't be staying up late, and let's get this over with. With a CFR of 3.8% I suspect we'll be fine.

    Just my humble thoughts.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 10:00am

    #81

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 4938

    9+

    Chris' Rant: The MSM Is Ignoring/Downplaying The Severity Of The Coronavirus Threat

    Some angry words from Chris about the lack of coronavirus coverage in the mainstream media:

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 10:20am

    #82
    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 166

    6+

    cytokine storm and another home medical device

    Thanks VegnDB12,

    in answer to cytokine storm

    The cytokine storm of severe influenza and development of immunomodulatory therapy.  Free online

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26189369

    LSS: it is very complicated, just as everyone  has gaps in their immune surveillance, everyone has quirks in their genetic code that may predispose them to immune over-reaction (not to mention the ability of a virus to be especially virulent and exploitative of our immune response).  For example a common mutation in TNF-alpha gene, rs1800629 aka A308G, causes upregulation in TNF alpha production which has been shown in large meta-analysis studies to increase inflammatory response.  This is just one possibility out of likely dozens, if not, hundreds of genetic polymorphisms in all the various genes involved in adaptive and innate immunity and the pathways critical for supporting them.

    In the Influenza pandemic of 1918, it was young, healthy adults (in a time before fast food and couch potato habits) who suffered the highest mortality.  If I remember correctly, researchers found that older adults had some immune overlap protection from influenzas they expereinced as children. But every infection is different, and has its own natural history.  How this plays out remains to be seen.  Chinese are genetically different enough from Caucasians that it could turn out Caucasians are at less or greater risk. no one knows yet.

    In addition to Sand Puppy’s great post on staying at home if ill, I would add (especially if your lungs are your weak link)

    A home nebulizer for glutathione breathing treatments. You can easily find them online for under $100.

    In a doctor’s office, these breathing treatments are performed using a prepared glutathione aqueous solution made up of sterilized water and glutathione powder by a compounding pharmacy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9sGxhhzOjA

    These treatments are expensive.   People have figure out hacks to get around that.  Read: home nebulizers, Glutathione powder, distilled water.

    https://www.amazon.com/L-Glutathione-Reduced-Pharmaceutical-Grade-Grams/dp/B07C1M2NWL/ref=pd_sbs_121_t_2/147-1224042-9678034?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B07C1M2NWL&pd_rd_r=fc09994e-72eb-4de1-9895-c6fdf0ef4c29&pd_rd_w=o3vf7&pd_rd_wg=HHEky&pf_rd_p=5cfcfe89-300f-47d2-b1ad-a4e27203a02a&pf_rd_r=GXWZW5ZM3XW94FZJQWPZ&psc=1&refRID=GXWZW5ZM3XW94FZJQWPZ

    It is expensive, but less so then going to a doctors office for a treatment.

    Also, kept tightly capped in the freezer, it is shelf stable for five years but it is very unstable when it is solubilized in aqueous solutions.  Capsules with reduced glutathione may have other ingredients (incipients, flowing agents, etc that you want to avoid…but I think some people use them too).

    Typical compounding pharmacy Rx for nebulizer glutathione; 100mg/ml 1 ml BID.

    DIY /How to prepare:

    In a small clean dish:

    1/2 tsp distilled water

    add 1/8 tsp glutathione powder

    small pinch sodium bicarb (not necessary in my experience)

    Decant into nebulizer cup.  It’s now ready to use.

    The internet has many videos about how to use/clean nebulizers. They are easy to use, but practice before you need it. Always clean your equipment after each use.

    Note: This treatment is not recommended If you have sulfite sensitive asthma!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 10:22am

    #83

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 451

    5+

    Stocking up....

    Here in Hawai'i, anybody who's even a remotely serious person has a comprehensive hurricane kit -- your basic bug-in kit to survive 2-4 weeks without food/water/etc.  Every year post Hurricane season, we nibble down the stored foods that have expiration dates.

    With all this Wuhan sh!t percolating, it's time to top the kit off.  Headed to CostCo on my way to my radio show tonight when I go into town.

    Stopped at the health food store last night on my way home from the Tai Ji class I lead on Thursday nights.  Elderberry syrup is actually on sale.  Small miracles...  I bought 3 bottles.

    Spreading the word to all my clients today at the Pilates studio.  Basically, nobody's heard squat.  But one client left after her session and was headed to buy elderberry syrup.

    It's beautiful here -- sunny and calm.  Have a sweet day, y'all.  And keep stocking up...

    VIVA -- Sager

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 11:49am

    #84
    skipr

    skipr

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 09 2016

    Posts: 183

    4+

    fundamental immune system

    If these epidemics continue to increase in frequency, it's a sign that planet Earth's immune system is finally kicking in.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 11:54am

    #85

    shawns333

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 30 2011

    Posts: 38

    3+

    The (Mainstream) Story is Changing

    Chris and PP folks, you'll see a changing tune here in this story and several pieces of what we've been reading here at PP being mentioned, such as incubation periods preventing easy spotting of sick travelers at airport checkpoints.

    You should be able to glimpse this report, unless you've already exhausted your Bloomberg articles lately. By the way, this is the only media that I actually pay real money for and they have high quality in most of their work. It's still "mainstream" news and they have planted bias articles as population sentiment needs to be "influenced". But, again, if you're going to actually seek out journalism especially from a business viewpoint, this is the outlet that I can stomach and actually pay for today.

    "N.Y. Investigating Three Possible Infection Cases: Virus Update"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/?sref=B46b5Rvh

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 12:27pm

    #86
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 438

    3+

    Spreading further...

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/china-coronavirus-wuhan-public-health-1.5438737

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 1:08pm

    #87
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    Chinese scapegoats as relief valve for anger over new coronavirus restrictions and impacts

    As with the 2003 SARS epidemic, the Chinese leadership are already setting up convenient scapegoats to brunt the anger of the populous.

    "China Locks Down 40 Million People as Anger Grows Over Virus" Source

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 1:51pm

    #88
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 215

    4+

    sad video of a Wuhan doc arguing with his administrators to let them go home

    I am sorry if this has been posted already. This looks real to me.   Just wanted to share. Don't watch if you are sensitive.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:42pm

    #89

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2024

    Eating bats?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:53pm

    #90
    Mots

    Mots

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 18 2012

    Posts: 219

    5+

    facts and predictions

    sandpuppy, thank you very much for the advice, I just ordered an oximeter.  CM thank you very much for the elderberry information.  I am surprised sometimes by the availability of naturally occurring useful-active plant components and have become a believer.  We have a Chinese medicine here made from horribly tasting plant powder that actually seems to cure a common cold (works for me but has nasty side effects).

    Facts:
    1. In the age before molecular biology knowledge, everytime a new virus emerged (mostly due to mutations in the outer coat protein that eliminates the old, familiar immunologically seen epitope(s)) most people ended up with an infection and many died.  In the modern world however, (after the first wave or two of deaths) we can discover the new epitopes and/or mechanisms and quickly make a vaccine.  SARS and Ebola were handled this way.

    2. The Chinese very quickly sequenced the new corona virus (and have good ideas of evolving variants thereof) and found the relevant differences in the expressed/exposed protein epitopes.

    3. The Chinese will manufacture a vaccine based on this knowledge.  I note that the Chinese make (directly or indirectly) most medicines used in America.  We are kind of passive observers in this drama.  Our number one medical drug supplier is experiencing a very nasty new virus infection and will make a drug(s) for it after some time.

    4.  This is a very serious disease, comparable with major scourges of old and the world will suffer some real damage, likely thousands or maybe even tens of thousands will die out of a 7 billion population.   I have a trip planned to China next month so this affects me personally.  But this is not the 1930s.   For most people in the US who do not visit Wuhan, there is a greater chance of death from overeating chicken eggs or wandering outside during thunderstorms.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 6:31pm

    #91

    msnrochny

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 04 2010

    Posts: 49

    13+

    Some “To-Do’s...

    Remember a pandemic can take 6-9 months to burn itself out.  Sure, food, toiletries, cash, etc. should be stocked up, so we can avoid going to town.  Here are some other things we talked about in our house tonight...

    Get the car tuned up, and the oil changed.  Buy some oil and a filter in case we need to do it.  Get extras of our prescriptions filled now.  Get annual or regular doctor visits taken care of.  Top off our propane tank.  Call the electrician, plumber, handy-man, mechanic to fix “that thing”; get it done now.  Get the septic tank pumped.  Go to the dentist for our cleaning, and check-up.  Go for our eye exam.  Get any clothing we might need over a 9-month period.  Buy some more board games.

    We are retired, so we can hunker down.  But, regardless of your situation, there are things you can do right now, that will limit your exposure to a pandemic, if you do it now.

    One last thought we had.  If we get sick, who might be willing to come help us?  Based on some of what Chris posted, many people in China who get the virus are way too sick to care for themselves.  So, we’ve discussed who we would trust to look in on us if we are sick, and who we would be willing to reciprocate care for if they are ill.  We are going to get this clarified and formalized in the next few weeks.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 7:22pm

    #92

    msnrochny

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 04 2010

    Posts: 49

    5+

    Great Article on What to do During a Pandemic

    This is perhaps the most comprehensive pandemic preparation article I’ve read.  Does a great job of explaining their length, provides lists, and how to provide care at home while avoiding hospitals that will be overwhelmed.

    https://www.moneycrashers.com/prepare-next-pandemic/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 8:25pm

    mindblue

    mindblue

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 02 2015

    Posts: 1

    3+

    Elderberry Syrup at Amazon

    Elderberry Syrup at Amazon (link)... just ordered enough for immediate family and every neighbor on my block... why not.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 24, 2020 - 8:30pm

    #94
    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 308

    4+

    vitacost elderberry

    vitacost is the one we use when we dont have enough homemade, it is a concentrate, so stronger, and is a good price.  they have their own website, and also great prices on vitamens, canned organic soups, etc...

    This one   https://www.vitacost.com/vitacost-sambucus-elderberry-ultra-concentrated-black-elderberry-extract-syrup?ta=elderberr&t=elderberry   and that bottle is basically for one person for one illness, usually, sometimes less is used if the person gets better fast.  Taking a teaspoon 4 times a day is typical, so 48 servings means 12 days if used at that rate, for example.  If sicker, maybe more often.  2 bottles of this concentrate plus some vit C with get you over $25 in vitacost brand to net free shipping....

     

    Also, I buy dry elderberries, and yes I will sometimes use Amazon, but only one of the herbal sources that I trust, so if on Amazon frontier co-op or starwest botanicals, for example, are good sources for dried elderberries, it is not too hard to make a syrup, do it ahead of time. I made some for family as part of a natural and homemade first aid supply christmas gift, and I water bath canned it so it is shelf stable.  I made mine with some sugar, instead of honey, so it was infant safe.  It doesnt take much.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 1:10am

    #95

    nickbert

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 285

    6+

    Thank you Chris

    Chris, thanks for you vigilant information scouting and the elderberry syrup recommendation (just picked some up).

    Needless to say I think my timing could be better... we're scheduled to fly back to Mongolia on Tuesday with transit through Beijing. We'll be taking some precautions like sticking only to the International Terminal, bringing all our own food, and being diligent with hand-washing & hand-sanitizer & Clorox wipes for chairs. Anyway, I'll pass along what we see when we travel through. Not looking forward to the travel now, but at least what we see in Beijing and in Mongolia might be a clue to how serious the respective governments are treating this.

    P.S.- My wife says they just closed all the schools in Mongolia's capital until March 2nd as a precaution. Needless to say our son is happy with this development... 😉

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 7:20am

    #96

    Pipyman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 101

    2+

    Great

    Would love to by more than 16 tablets of ibuprofen. However, in the U.K. I can’t in one go.

     

    fucking ridiculous....

     

    pardon my french

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 8:32am

    #97

    thatchmo

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Dec 13 2008

    Posts: 224

    3+

    Yin Chiao

    I've been a Yin Chiao fan for years.  At the first sign of "something", I'm popping pills!  Has worked well for me.  Just bought a S/L of elderberry products to try that as well.  Eh, probably won't need either....I've heard crossing your fingers is helpful....Aloha, Steve

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 9:21am

    #98

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 613

    8+

    Our Motto...

     ...here at Chateau Snydeman has been “get ahead of the herd.” To the layperson, this would just be a highly odd shopping cart. To PPers, this is an obvious ramp up in supplies prior to actually needing them, which is the whole point. If this thing hits next week here in the U.S., that’s precisely the time we do not want to be out getting supplies.

    meanwhile, the Mrs. is out at Mom’s Organic Market getting dried Elderberries, raw honey, and a pulse oximeter, all as per the advice we’ve read here from Sand_puppy and others.

     

    Lean on this community. Learn from this community. For the love of all things holy, though, get ahead of the herd. Worst case scenario is you feel a bit silly if nothing happens...but you’ll be hella prepared the next time a cold or flu rips through.

    -S

     

    PS- Yes, those are condoms. In a grid-down/holed up scenarios, the Mrs. might run out of her pills, so...I mean, what the hell is the point of prepping if you can’t keep living? Don’t judge.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 9:40am

    #99

    willmartin

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 04 2009

    Posts: 2

    5+

    willmartin said:

    N95 face masks are sold out on Amazon. They're showing huge price increases from "third party sellers" or delivery times of 2 weeks from now. Someone else mentioned that auto parts stores carry face masks - that's likely a good place to look as other people wouldn't think about finding them there.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 9:54am

    shastatodd

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 16 2010

    Posts: 57

    2+

    Where do you get your elderberry syrup?

    We make ours from local elderberry trees we pick in the late summer. Most natural foods stores carry it as a bottled preparation. "Sambucol" is a common brand name:
    https://sambucolusa.com/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:05am

    JAG

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Oct 26 2008

    Posts: 430

    5+

    Alternative to Elderberry.....Blackberry and Chokeberry

    When the supplies of elderberry syrup dry up, a good alternative is blackberry and chokeberry (AKA Aronia).

    It's the anthocyanin pigments in elderberries that are suspected to be responsible for their flu-fighting properties, specifically the cyanidin pigments.  See The inhibitory performance of flavonoid cyanidin-3-sambubiocide against H274Y mutation in H1N1 influenza virus. and Anti-influenza activity of elderberry (Sambucus nigra).

    You can see on a chart from this study of anthocyanins (Anthocyanin content and antioxidant activity of various red fruit juices) that both elderberries and chokeberries contain the highest content of total anthocyanins.

    However, if the active flu-fighting anthocyanin component is the cyanidin 3-glucoside (cyn 3-glu), elderberries contain a much larger fraction of these sub-anthocynins than most other berries.

    Blackberries have the next most cy-3-glu content, coming in a close second to elderberry.

    Although there has been quite a bit of research into anthocyanin pigments in the last decade, how they work in the human body is still not well understood. For example, most anthocyanin pigments are never actually absorbed (in their intact form) into the blood stream. It is thought that they mainly act on the microbiome in the gut.

    While chokeberries have only a small fraction of the specific cy-3-glu that elderberries contain, they do have an impressive amount of total cyanidin and anthocyanin concentrations. As anthocyanins are believed to act synergistically with one another, consuming a wide-spectrum of them is considered to be a good strategy.

    You can buy dried chokeberries here. They are very bitter (hence the "choke") but edible. Consuming the berry in it's whole-food form, versus a syrup, is probably a better idea because you don't really know how an extract is made. You can buy freeze-dried elderberries here.

    I have several gallons of chokeberry juice in my chest-fridge (under the beer). I can't find it any more to buy, but I've been saving it for just such an occasion. It really tastes horrible....cheers.

    And put frozen blackberries on your shopping list at the grocery store too.

    Hope this info helps and thank you Dr. M for your great work on this.

    All the best....Jeff

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:16am

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 347

    2+

    Way to consume elderberry

    I'm thinking of adding a tablespoon of dried elderberries to my nettle-calendula-ginger tea I brew up each day and carry around in a 2 quart ball jar.  One tablespoon is about equivalent to Chris' 1 ounce shot (a pound of dried berries fills a 1 quart jar just to the top and 1 pound (1 quart) of dried berries makes 2 quarts of syrup).  I'll boil everything for 5-1o minutes and then make sure to get all of the active ingredient by eating the cooked berries.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 11:40am

    mjtrac

    mjtrac

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 17 2014

    Posts: 15

    Chris' "rant"

    Thanks for posting the "rant."  This puts Chris on the record, on an issue that is not under the control of the Fed.  We'll see if he's correct about this causing the death of millions of Americans, as the virus has already been detected in America.  (I have no guess, and would not dare suggest he is wrong. I just don't know.)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 1:40pm

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 613

    Rant?

    Shiv much?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 2:37pm

    lmcdel

    lmcdel

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 12 2012

    Posts: 22

    1+

    Masks

    My local Home Depot still has them in stock.
    try hardware stores too.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 3:01pm

    mjtrac

    mjtrac

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 17 2014

    Posts: 15

    Shiv much?

    No, I don't think so.  I just like the ability to gauge things against reality, and that is admittedly hard to do when someone makes economic predictions, but becomes easier when someone makes a science-based prediction on something that is somewhat related, at least, to a field in which they assert or asserted expertise.

    As I said, I wouldn't dare call Chris wrong.  The parts of the crash course about which I have any knowledge at all make complete sense to me, and I have no reason to believe Chris is wrong about any of the rest.  It's just that now, after Peak Prosperity has become a site offering financial advice and such in addition to mere explanations of our predicament, here's a way to check on one of his predictions.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 6:08pm

    Rector

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2010

    Posts: 376

    Can we ship it to you?

    Just to piss off the bureaucrats.

    Rector

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 6:16pm

    apollo161

    apollo161

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 26 2014

    Posts: 1

    2+

    Coronavirus possibly escaped from a Chinese lab, and the US was working with the same virus.

    Chris, the Chinese were working with this virus in a biochemical lab in the same city where the virus suddenly appeared. And check out US involvement. Please see the links below. In other words, the virus could have been released through laboratory experimentation, purposely or unintentionally.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

    “Lab-Made Coronavirus Triggers Debate”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 9:03pm

    NickAdams10

    NickAdams10

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2015

    Posts: 67

    2+

    Thank you

    Your insight on the coronavirus outbreak is appreciated, Chris.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 9:55pm

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    4+

    Feeling a bit better about this situation

    Looks like China has gone full speed ahead with containment. The quarantine efforts should definitely help with slowing the spread of the virus. As of now there are 40 confirmed cases in Shanghai, which I’m watching very carefully as it’s a global city with a global reach. If Shanghai goes down then all bets are off. So far, looks like Wuhan has taken the brunt of the virus. It’s been completely closed off via martial law. Also the fact that there’s minimal cases in the US is comforting

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Jan 25, 2020 - 10:31pm

    Mots

    Mots

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 18 2012

    Posts: 219

    3+

    R0 and Corona Extra

    It seems that this virus is worse than originally thought due to the long latency period and extremely high R0.  There is something different besides merely a new epitope that has changed with this virus.

    Since the viral sequence (and presumably variants) are known it will be very interesting to know :
    1. what has changed?  For example, is viron assembly delayed a long time after infection and replication in a cell?  Alternatively, how can the virus replicate, get exported into snot and saliva to cause infection, and yet not cause a sneeze or cough?  What is the reason for long incubation time that elapses between infection and the kind of destruction that leads to coughing and fever?  I don't know anything about this, but am looking forward to a good review/reference.  Maybe the Sandman has a review.....
    2. was this change really a simple matter of Mr. Snake and Mrs. Bat virons getting it on with each other and making little Timmy hybrid product as an innocuous event at the meet market (pun intended)?  Presumably a comparison of the published sequence(s) with known Coronas can shed some light on the possibility that the first P4 laboratory in China for fuc*ing around (again, pun intended) with the most toxic organisms known to mankind, (which recently opened 20 miles from the blamed animal marketplace source of infection) was responsible as a warfare experiment that literally leaked to the community.  I wonder if the differences found can be easily explained as a random tryst of DNA from two or more species.  Or, perhaps required some serious genetic engineering at multiple places that are not explained by a simple random event and natural selection...........

    China makes its first hazardous microbe lab, and which (according to a Canadian) accepts a shipment of Corona viruses.  A year or two later, this is observed 20 miles away and the central government admonishes a cuisine TV star for teaching people to eat bats as a way to prevent this problem.   Like most things discussed at PP, the coincidences are really too much to ignore.......

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 4:13am

    Steve

    Steve

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 150

    2+

    N95 Respirator Masks

    I ordered a box of 20 N95 masks, on-line, from O'Reilly Autoparts.  $19.95 + tax and shipping (about $28.00 total).  It remains to be seen if they actually get delivered on Wednesday.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 5:37am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    6+

    Feeling a Bit Better...

    Looks like China has gone full speed ahead with containment. The quarantine efforts should definitely help with slowing the spread of the virus. As of now there are 40 confirmed cases in Shanghai, which I’m watching very carefully as it’s a global city with a global reach. If Shanghai goes down then all bets are off. So far, looks like Wuhan has taken the brunt of the virus. It’s been completely closed off via martial law. Also the fact that there’s minimal cases in the US is comforting

    I agree with all of that. Militating against this relief is my profound distrust of every institution involved controlling the information.

    Also there's the fact that China - presumably in possession of the real info - is aggressively quarantining it's ... well... basically it's entire country now.

    I am 100% confident that China has been under representing the true case figures, both for exposures and for deaths.

    As well, the numbers aren't adding up. Every video sneaked out (they are quickly removed from Twitter, presumably by @jack placating Chinese authorities) shows every hospital in Wuhan completely filled to overflowing with people dying in hallways.

    Officially there are roughly 2000 cases (1975 as of last night). Wuhan has +49,000 hospital beds throughout its vast hospital system. I know it's a big city of 11 million and many of those beds were already filled with other patients, but really?

    With 80% of cases being reported as "not severe" that leaves 200 severe cases. Those resolve over 11-15 days. We're 46 days into this crisis, so many of those 200 putative critically sick people have recovered and moved on.

    Are we to believe that less than fewer than 200 bedridden 2019-ncov victims have totally overwhelmed a 49,000 bed hospital system?

    I sure don't.

    So the next question is "just how badly under reported is this thing?"

    If it's 10x under reported, then that would mean 2,000 critically ill people. Is that enough to swamp a 49,000 bed system? I don't know, I'll leave that to our hospital experts and authorities, but it's at least a more realistic place to begin the conversation.

    Is the right number 15x under reported? 20x? I just don't know yet.

    But those are the sorts of numbers that comport with China yanking the emergency brake, declaring a Level 1 emergency for its largest of cities including Beijing, and throwing their economy roughly into the dashboard.

    The economic impacts are going to be really harsh. That's not done lightly. Which means this pandemic is real.

    That's my thinking.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 6:43am

    MasterOfMyDomain

    MasterOfMyDomain

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 20 2011

    Posts: 18

    3+

    N95 respirators - get them with an exhalation valve if possible

    My experience during many hours wearing N95 respirators during construction, woodworking, etc. is that you want the ones WITH an exhalation valve. They're more comfortable, they don't steam up your eye protection and you can feel the ones without pushing away from your face when you exhale.

    We also keep a supply of N100 (which are quite expensive) specifically for pandemics. Bought ours a long time ago so I'm concerned about their disintegration over time so am buying more. I've bought a lot of this kind of stuff at Northern Safety. Maybe a little pricey but good selection and service. They've already put a limit on purchase quantities of some N95 masks...

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 7:09am

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2365

    2+

    N95 with exhalation valve

    Lowes has these

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 7:18am

    karenf

    karenf

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2010

    Posts: 57

    3+

    I'm sure you all have seen this

    Put posting anyway just in case.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-china-hiding-true-number-coronavirus-deaths

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 7:35am

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2365

    3+

    Case report of spreading infection while NOT symptomatic

    From FluTrackers.com this morning (posted by tetano at 2:51 am) , quoting A Director of Infectious Diseases at a Chinese University.

    Expert: New coronaviruses are infectious [even] when they do not have any typical symptoms during the incubation period
    Published: 2020-01-26 14:35:08

    'We encountered a patient who came to Hangzhou from Wuhan to attend a conference. When he arrived in Hangzhou, he did not have any symptoms. He did not have the typical symptoms of cough and fever. But it didn't take long before several colleagues he had contacted were infected Symptoms appeared one after another. But at this time, he still did not have the disease himself. After returning to Wuhan at the end of the meeting, he did not get the disease after another two days.
    http://news.china.com.cn/2020-01/26/...t_75650029.htm

    Whew.  This makes you want to ratchet up your isolation efforts.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 7:44am

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 215

    5+

    universal precautions

    it took the HIV epidemic to cause health care workers to act as if everyone might have something transmissible with respect to blood products. now it seems we need to practice that with everyone with respect to respiratory contamination.

    Sand-puppy you and the other medical docs/healers have done a standup job here just wanted to extend my gratitude to all of you. And of course to Chris and Adam.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 8:09am

    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 364

    2+

    Zerohedge again

    New Research Casts Doubt Coronavirus Epidemic Started At Wuhan Food Market

    I never quite know what to make of Zerohedge, but here's their offering anyway.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 8:28am

    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 364

    1+

    N95, N99, N100: What’s the Difference Between Each Mask?

    More complicated than I thought.
    Never knew about N, R and P classifications. Had heard of N95 but not N99 or N100. I've got some P2 masks (excludes >=2 micron-sized particles) which I just discovered are also called N95. These were to help cope with bushfire smoke, but apparently they're not particularly good even at that:

    A spokesperson for the NSW Health reiterated that concern.

    “P2 face masks can filter out most PM2.5. However, evidence suggests they may not work in practice as they require an extremely good fit.”

    “This is difficult for people to achieve outside of an occupational setting where they can be properly fit-checked.”

    Cowie says a mask is “not the best public health measure that we can offer”.

    Source

    Now I need to find out whether the N95 needs an "extremely good fit".

    People here aren't rushing to purchase masks / respirators. Yet.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 8:50am

    mjtrac

    mjtrac

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 17 2014

    Posts: 15

    1+

    The predicament vs. the response

    I share Chris Martenson's distrust of institutions and I congratulate him on his crash course.  My mistrust, I confess, extends to gold salespeople and "preppers."

    I don't understand what sort of people hear (about 4 and a half minutes into the six minute rant video posted above) about millions of Americans dying if a virus gets to America, and respond by discussing where to buy masks.  I just don't.  Pogo was right.

    Other things I don't understand: the lack of heavy carbon taxes, the lack of a wealth tax, the election of trump, the GOP Senate, the explosion of homelessness on the streets of America's temperate-zone cities, the continued existence of cigarette factories.  The only thing that I can think of that ties them all together is human selfishness and greed, as exhibited in countries that have enabled people to become more wealthy and complacent than human beings are capable of handling.  And I feel a great confidence that people who think they can protect themselves from that with a mask are people I never want to meet.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 8:58am

    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 1011

    7+

    Pascal

    handles this well. “I would rather prepare and be wrong than not prepare and be wrong.”

    robie, a prepared husband,father,farmer,optometrist

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:19am

    mjtrac

    mjtrac

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 17 2014

    Posts: 15

    Enjoy protecting your armed farm

    Then enjoy your life protecting your family at your armed and isolated farmstead.  I'd rather be dead.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:31am

    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 1011

    3+

    Your view must be

    quite good as my farm isn’t isolated. Good people who are inexperienced with a bucolic existence presuppose us agrarians are like the inbred folk from “deliverance”.

    I would always rather live, well fed, to share, and if necessary defend. Am also sure you meant your comments in kindness.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:38am

    mememonkey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2009

    Posts: 122

    9+

    Spare us your Sanctimony

     

    And I feel a great confidence that people who think they can protect themselves from that with a mask are people I never want to meet.

    Yeah yeah we get it! consider your virtue successfully signaled . I may not like Trump, Corporate greed and all the other manifestion of a profoundly sick system but I get why  he was elected.  I’ve also paid enough attention that I equally dislike  both sides of the legislature. They are after all symptoms of the same sickness.

    but you don’t understand why people here are interested in the potential to prevent themselves from getting sick and possibly dieing in the face of a potential pandemic using face masks?

    How about seatbelts?  Does wearing those represent a moral failing as well, given that the world is filled with greedy Republicans and evil corporate overlords?

    mm

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:41am

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 308

    1+

    So, You'd rather be dead ?

    Nothing said here has made out this virus to be like " The Stand"  more like we dont have resistance to it, so if exposed, we could all catch it, and the more volnurable could die.

    What is wring with making sure to have medicines and canned soup at home to make it thru it ?  This is not some kind of overall post apopalyptic isolationism, just the fact, and I had a different bad flu this year, sicker than I have been in decades, so, yes, the fact is that you arent going anywhere if that sick and you need a way to think of how to get yourself and your household thru it.  With the added gotcha that most others around you could have the same problem, so not have enough staffing at stores, pharmacies, hospitals, etc.... So you may not be able to just have the one healthy person, if you have one, go out and get stuff.

    So, here, we are reminded to what we are supposed to be doing all along, and make sure to think about how to get thru such illness at home

    This kind of thinking is not throwing neighbors under the bus or not caring, it is actually trying to make sure that we do not overburden, so in that sense, it makes the whole situation for everyone else better if an epidemic hits in that we wont be wondering what to do and clogging up the doctors office unneccessarily ( until it looks like pneumonia, of course) and not having to go to the store while sick and contagious because we already have some juice and asprin(or nsaid of choice)  at home.  That is HELPING our fellow community members, not hindering them !   We are also more likely to HELP a neighbor if we think we can safely hand them something thru the door without either spreading what we have or catching what they do !

    Where do you get this armed farm issolationism anyways ?  New here maybe ?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:43am

    mjtrac

    mjtrac

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 17 2014

    Posts: 15

    Presumptions

    The only presumption I made is that to protect oneself and one's family from a pandemic, one needs to be isolated.

    But, really, my point is more about my own recurring question -- why would I want to continue living, given the society we have built, especially if it goes in the anticipated direction.  While I'm still here, as a social creature in a destructive society, I feel bound up in the fate of that society, and I'm not entirely clear there is much point to existing once I've convinced myself completely of the nature of the society of which I'm part.  That's not the ponderings of a sophomore, but of a possibly sophomoric 60+.  I stick around for now because my husband needs my support to cope with his widowed mother.

    And, yes, thank you, my view is great.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:47am

    mjtrac

    mjtrac

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 17 2014

    Posts: 15

    On the assumption that "Spare us your sanctimony" is a valid post...

    On the assumption that "Spare us your sanctimony" is a valid post, I will make another presumption that the following is also a valid post.  Fuck you.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:51am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5196

    11+

    Not Our Ethos

    Then enjoy your life protecting your family at your armed and isolated farmstead. I’d rather be dead.

    What a strange view to hold. First it badly mischaracterizes what is being said around here.

    Second, taking it at face value, I consider it a selfish position to hold.

    We don't get to choose to live though a pandemic, only how we conduct ourselves. Because some 93% of people survive getting the virus (so far, data may change) I think it's very much well worth effort of being among them.

    The single best response it to not get the virus at all, which is totally a preventable thing for people who can introduce some basic hygiene principles into their lives.

    Once you become sick or dead, you are now a drain on the system. For people who inadvertently, and despite best efforts, get sick anyways, hey we've got you> It happens.

    But what about people who throw up their hands and declare that they want no part of this situation and decide to take no actions? Well, I'm clear on this. That's an irresponsible and self-oriented position to take. Almost anti-social from my standpoint.

    By the way, if/when this arrives on your shores where ever that may be, and you have decided on some principle to *not* wear a face mask out in public, you will discover that you are very much in the minority and will receive massive social pressure to either get with it or get away from everyone.

    In closing, my tolerance for unhelpful posts that toss passive-aggressive insults, or claim to "hold the high ground" by virtue of the poster somehow holding the "correct" and true position on the matter (despite having the same or less information as well all share) is going to be very low for the duration of this crisis.

    This is going to require steady hands, rapid adaptation to new information, and the ability to check one's emotions and triggers at the door.

    Thank you.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:04am

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2024

    4+

    My concern for mjtrac

    She wrote:

    I stick around for now because my husband needs my support to cope with his widowed mother.

    She seems very depressed to me. She doesn’t seem to have a lot to live for. I’m concerned she’s been contemplating suicide. All it would take would be one big setback (like corona virus striking her community, or the death of her mother in law) and she might take that step. I’d like to help, or see her recover some purpose and joy in life.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:08am

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 308

    2+

    I think you should talk to someone

    I think you should talk to someone close to you, if not yoru husband, who is busy with his mother, a friend or other family member. I am concerned that you are saying that, having nothing to do with the new virus, that in general you do not see that lif is worht living.

    There is so much beauty.  So many things of value to persue.

    Take 10 minutes this morning and go for a walk, and if you live in a built up area ( not alot of nature around) raise your gaze to the sky, the limitless beauty, wehter cloudy or sunny.   Get your heart pumping and muscles working, at least for this 10 minutes.

    Do not look at any TV or computer links, news, social media ALL DAY.  Keep the phone on for needed communication from family, of course.

    If you dont already do so, take up a hobby of some kind of hand work you can pick up and put down easily while helping in your situation, crochet, hand sewing, etc..  Or just the crosswords !

    If a movie seems to be wanted or needed, pick an old classic, pre 1970, no other media !

    Play music you like,  Make music if you can

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:09am

    Zana Hart

    Zana Hart

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 23 2011

    Posts: 32

    3+

    Yes, very interesting and being seen very little online

    I'm going to keep my eye on this thread.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:09am

    mjtrac

    mjtrac

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 17 2014

    Posts: 15

    Not suicidal

    First, I'm a he.  Thank you to thc0655.  I am not suicidal, but I am gone from this site.  No one need worry.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:15am

    mememonkey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2009

    Posts: 122

    Deleted

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:23am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    4+

    mjtrac, "f*ck you" is not a valid argument

    And its against PP member guidelines:  https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/forum-guidelines-and-rules/

    I hope you find some peace and support with your difficult personal situation.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:33am

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2024

    3+

    Beijing taxi driver

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:41am

    Ejh237

    Ejh237

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 16 2011

    Posts: 33

    truncated URL?

    Hey Sandpuppy, why is that url sortened from the middle?  could you post the whole link or text?

    thx

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 10:58am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    China: City of 5.5M on lock-down effective 1/27/20, no one allowed out OR in

    Article dated 1/26/20, allowing time for a quick escape and/or other preparations. [edit, bold added]

    "The city of Shantou on the southern coast of China in Guangdong province has announced it will be the first outside of Hubei province to go on lockdown.

    That means no individual, vehicle or boat will be allowed to entering the city beginning on January 27. What's different here is that Hubei cities are preventing people from leaving; in Shantou, they're baring them from entering.

    The choice of this city is extremely concerning. There are only 2 confirmed cases there and many are speculating this is a sign that the entire country is about to be put on lockdown. While that would be economically devastating in the short-term, it would be China's best chance of halting the spread of the virus."

    https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/a-city-1000km-from-wuhan-just-declared-a-full-lockdown-20200126

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 11:16am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    Insightful comment to nCoV contagious incubation period; 3 wks. min. quarantine

    Posted by Vibrant62 on FluTrackers:

    "Some key information in this report. it is hard to see how this can be contained given a) there is no vaccine b) there are no antivirals that work (or at least none found yet) and c) the incubation period is contagious, and can be anything between one and 14 days. Quarantines would have to last 3 weeks at minimum after a known contact, and restart any time a household individual became sick. On a major scale once infections number in their 1000s,I cannot see how this could be implemented."

    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/824791-china-2019ncov-outbreak-news-and-information-week-5-january-26-february-1-2020?p=824820#post824820

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 11:19am

    Ejh237

    Ejh237

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 16 2011

    Posts: 33

    5+

    Supporting others

    While Cindy and I were out shopping yesterday (probably our last) to freshen our deep pantry, we grabbed an "extra to help others" of most things we bought, including (tho it was rough, given our distain for the things) a few cases of bottled water.

    I can confirm you can still find N95 masks at farm, auto, and hardware stores. Picked up a 20 pack to share with others as well.

    As the "go out to shop" time winds down, just food for thought for you all,

    cindy & eric

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 11:30am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    China bans wildlife trade nationwide, effective 1/27/20

    China bans wildlife trade nationwide due to coronavirus outbreak

    "BEIJING (Reuters) - China banned wildlife trade nationwide in markets, supermarkets, restaurants, and e-commerce platforms due to the coronavirus outbreak, the country’s market watchdog, agricultural ministry, and forestry bureau said in a joint statement.

    Any places that breed wildlife should be isolated, and the transportation of wildlife should be banned, said the statement.

    The ban will take effect from Sunday. "

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-wildlife-idUSKBN1ZP07Y

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 11:45am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    HK protestors bomb complex slated to be nCoV temporary quarantine zone

    "HONG KONG – Protesters threw petrol bombs on Sunday night, January 26, at an empty public housing complex in Hong Kong that had been earmarked to become a temporary quarantine zone as the city battles an outbreak of the SARS-like Novel Coronavirus."

    https://www.rappler.com/world/regions/asia-pacific/250261-proposed-hong-kong-virus-quarantine-building-firebombed-during-protest

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 12:02pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    Mayor: 5M+ people left Wuhan; 1,000 additional nCoV confirmed cases in Wuhan expected

    Posted today by SharonSanders, FluTrackers, from translated Chinese news article:

    "[Wuhan Pneumonia] Mayor of Wuhan: More than 5 million people leave Wuhan (23:35)

    Figure 1-1-Wuhan Hankou Yanjiang Avenue is inaccessible today (26th). (Xinhua News Agency) The outbreak of new-type coronavirus in the Mainland continues. Wuhan Mayor Zhou Xianwang said today (26th) that more than 5 million people have left Wuhan and another 9 million are still in the city. It is estimated that there may be another 1,000 confirmed cases in Wuhan.

    In addition, China's CDC detected for the first time from 585 environmental samples in the South China Seafood Market today that 33 samples contained novel coronavirus nucleic acids. These samples came from 22 stalls and a garbage truck in the market. Positive samples exceeded 90%. From the western part of the market, where there is a wildlife trade, it is highly suspected that the outbreak was related to wildlife trade."

    (Source)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 12:09pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    2nd Confirmed nCoV case in Southern California

    One each in LA County and Orange County.

    "Health officials said there is no immediate threat to the general public."

    https://abc7news.com/health/4th-case-of-new-coronavirus-confirmed-in-us/5879796/

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 12:10pm

    karenf

    karenf

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2010

    Posts: 57

    9+

    Story from the front lines in Wash DC

    I work in a hospital lab in a Wash DC suburb.  Last night a GW student came into the ED with trouble breathing and a fever.  He was in Wuhan 1 week ago.  They sent his lab work to DCLS and he WENT HOME to George Washington University to go back to school.  This is unacceptable but this is the situation currently in the US.  He wanted to leave and no one stopped him or insisted he do any isolation protocols.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 12:16pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    2+

    Updated, Virginia DoH: 3 total suspected cases; 2 from Central region, 1 from Northern region under investigation for nCoV

    http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/novel-coronavirus/

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 12:44pm

    Bleep

    Bleep

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2017

    Posts: 54

    6+

    Genie is out of the bottle

    I don’t know if most people realize this but the yearly mass exodus of people traveling into, out of, and around China is the largest yearly mass exodus in the world. Many people start traveling up to two weeks before the holiday. This virus couldn’t have appeared at a more inopportune time. Probably more than 75% had already left prior to Friday. A good friend of mine left Shanghai on Friday and so beleive they are still allowing outbound flights from major airports.

    Internally though, transportation is currently being shut down all over China. They have stopped bus service into and out of the small city about 40 minutes from my in-laws farm. Right now, my wife is worried about her father who is stuck at their farm with no way to get to town to get food and no way for anyone to get out to him.

    My wife is from the province just North of Hubei and her cousin is currently in quarantine with a fever.

    Thank god my wife is in the U.S. right now and has been since last July!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 12:45pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    3+

    Universities may be nCoV hot-spots

    Wow, Karenf, that is a very sobering account that does not bode well for our broken health care/public health systems. I applaud any steps you are taking to personally and professionally to limit exposures.

    Universities in particular may be new coronavirus contagion hot spots given their population's diversity, mobility and congested environments.   These are akin to small to moderate-sized cities with extremely limited health and medical resources.

    I wonder if/what steps they may be following to educate, identify, isolate and treat students, faculty and staff about this growing epidemic. My guess is that it largely consists of flyers, email alerts, self-directed cursory health center visits with OTC meds, and referrals out to PCPs as needed. In short: an ineffective response. Something to keep an eye on for those of us living in communities with universities.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 1:19pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    AZ-DHS: 1 confirmed nCoV case in Maracopa Co. AZ

    "The patient is a Maricopa County resident and a member of the Arizona State University community who recently returned from traveling in Wuhan, China, the department said in a press release.

    ADHS added that the person, who does not live in university housing, is not severely ill and is currently in isolation to keep the illness from spreading."

    https://ktar.com/story/2941639/health-department-confirms-first-case-of-coronavirus-in-arizona/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 1:38pm

    Terry L

    Terry L

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 25 2009

    Posts: 24

    1+

    JAMA study: Surgical masks as good as respirators for flu and respiratory virus protection

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2019-09-surgical-masks-good-respirators-flu.html

    (Below emphasis mine)

    "Researchers may finally have an answer in the long-running controversy over whether the common surgical mask is as effective as more expensive respirator-type masks in protecting health care workers from flu and other respiratory viruses."

    "A study published today [9/3/2019] in JAMA compared the ubiquitous surgical (or medical) mask, which costs about a dime, to a less commonly used respirator called an N95, which costs around $1. The study reported "no significant difference in the effectiveness" of medical masks vs. N95 respirators for prevention of influenza or other viral respiratory illness."

    "This study showed there is no difference in incidence of viral respiratory transmission among health care workers wearing the two types of protection," said Dr. Trish Perl, Chief of UT Southwestern's Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine and the report's senior author. "This finding is important from a public policy standpoint because it informs about what should be recommended and what kind of protective apparel should be kept available for outbreaks."

    Note: I've also read that the medical masks are much more comfortable to wear, as compared to N95 masks.

    Do any PPers have any data (not just feelings, please) that contradict the above study?

    -----------------------------------------------------------

    FYI, I just ordered from Amazon 50 medical masks for $8.15 ($.16/each):

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 1:55pm

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 308

    2+

    also worried about the exposure at the UC's

    Yes, alot of students travelled back to start the new semester at the UC's here in CA.  I have a young family member in Grad school at one, it is a worry.  I know this student has a few N95 masks, with respirator valve ( due to the bad wildfires near there last year) and I personally gave this student 2 8oz jars of home made elderberry last month.  Other than that, well, luckily college age arent in the worst category if they get sick, because, yea, until told to, none of them are going to stay home and miss class !  Although, the particular program this student is in,  it is common skip some lectures, however, going to all labs they always do !

    This is the family member I worry the most about, being away from family and all.  But, the friend groups there so seem to be close knit and look out for each other.

     

    The old folks of mine, well, they are in poor health.  They of course, would be much, much more at risk.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 3:58pm

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 117

    5+

    What would quarantine really look like?

    Just an anecdotal tale from today. I always keep a few n95 masks laying around for cleaning the chicken coop. On Friday I swung by the Home Depot and bought a couple 2 packs thinking I already had several in my shop. Turns out I only had one left, so my wife ordered a 10 pack on Amazon. The delivery date on the Prime masks is now pushed out till mid February and I wonder if I’ll ever even see them. Went back into Home Depot today and they were close to cleaned out. I grabbed a few two packs. There was a younger retired couple ( probably Californians) looking for 10 packs and I asked them if they were trying to beat the rush. The wife said they already had several boxes. I replied that they might want to leave some for others. The husband said he didn’t really care about anyone else. I think that his take on the situation would be shared by many. If there was even a hint of a full blown contagion, it would be Lord of the Flies.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 4:16pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    2+

    371 new cases of novel coronavirus confirmed in Hubei

    371 new cases of novel coronavirus confirmed in Hubei

    Three hundred and seventy-one new cases of novel coronavirus were confirmed on Monday in central China's Hubei Province, bringing the number of confirmed cases to 1,423 in the area as of midnight January 26.

    Twenty-four more deaths were also confirmed in the province, according to local health authorities, raising the total number of deaths to 76.

    ===================

    23:03, 26-Jan-2020

    Coronavirus outbreak: At least 2,070 cases confirmed in China, 56 dead

    Coronavirus ‘whistleblower’ nurse says China has 90,000 sick

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 4:24pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    3+

    Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn

     
    Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn
    Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.

    “My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 4:45pm

    FOOTLOOSE

    FOOTLOOSE

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 2

    1+

    Hal Turner Radio

    this info is beyond the discussion here, so far.

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-barricading-people-in-infected-cities-roads-being-blocked-with-piles-of-dirt-phone-lines-off-hospitals-out-of-supplies

    46 MILLION PEOPLE UNDER QUARANTINE

    The number of infected people has risen to slightly over three million and the death toll now stands at a MINIMUM of 156,000.

     

    90,000 DEAD IN WUHAN ALONE!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 5:38pm

    CrisisMode

    CrisisMode

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 21 2011

    Posts: 34

    5+

    What's going on around my community

    So, this afternoon I'm thinking it's probably a good idea to get some more N95 masks.

    I already have some because of home/hobby maintenance regarding sanding, scraping paint, moving large amounts of dried leaves, etc., etc., etc.

    But, because of reading CM's most recent posts, I'm thinking, yeah, it's probably a good idea to pick up some more right about now.

    Going online, Amazon is out.

    Walmart is out.

    I went to my local pharmacy, they were completely out.

    The local Home Depot is completely out.

    I found one box at my local hardware store. It had dust on the top. Been there a long time, I'd suspect.

    And many, many other big suppliers in the online environment are completely out.

     

    Point is . . .

    What does that tell you? This phenomenon has barely touched our shores and many suppliers are completely out at this time?

    When I came home with the prize box, I posed the same question to my wife.

    She said . . . . Well, are you familiar with the phrase "early adopters"?

    Yup. We here are the ones getting the early preps in. After which the masses finally figure it out, annnnnnnd . . . . there's nothing left.

     

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 5:48pm

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 749

    2+

    Some Potential Fake News about Coronavirus

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/coronavirus-disinformation-spread

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 6:34pm

    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 1011

    2+

    Am happy with

    the procedural/surgical masks. Yes , they are imperfect, the ease of replacement and disposal helps me insure a different form of security. OBTW I am horribly claustrophobic in a N95 mask.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 7:59pm

    Megan McMillan

    Megan McMillan

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 19 2019

    Posts: 3

    4+

    Humans are a virus's energy source...

    This thought just occurred to me and has me freaked out. As far as I know the last time a global pandemic really swept the globe in a meaningful way in 1918. The global life expectancy actually dropped for a few years.  In 1918 there were about 1.5 Billion people on the planet. Today it is 7.8 billion.  If people are a virus's energy source and the energy in the system in 5 times greater than it was before....what does this do to the virus? I know the Spanish flu started mild and then came back stronger, is there any reason to think there is a correlation between that and the number of hosts the virus has to feed on which gives it the ability / time / space / energy required to make those kinds of mutations? So for example, in 1918, how long did the virus have to persist, to infect the 100,000 suspected infections we have today? How many infections had to occur to practically ensure the negative mutations would manifest themselves?  I don't know enough about virus's to even guess.  Can you guys shed any light on this?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 8:34pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    2+

    Chinese Nurse Whistleblower at-risk of being arrested, "punshed" for spreading "rumors"

    There appears to be a concerted effort by Chinese authorities to crack-down on anyone not towing the official narrative of unity in fighting the "epidemic war". Once investigated and found to be spreading "rumors" and "disrupting public order", they are subject to fine and/or imprisonment. This video of the nurse appears to be legit and she even gives her name and location. I fear she is in danger of being "punished" by the authorities for doing so as it runs contrary to the official counts and narrative.

    A recent example (translated):

    "Chinanews.com Mianyang, January 26 (Yang Yong, Lu Jie) Recently, in the fight against the pneumonia epidemic of new coronavirus infections in the country, some netizens were eyeballs of bloggers, spreading "a Beichuan woman died of SB250 virus infection" in WeChat The rumors were widely reposted, causing bad effects. The Public Security Bureau of Beichuan County, Mianyang County, Sichuan Province and the Mianzhu City Public Security Bureau of Deyang City investigated and punished Zhou Moumou (male, 48 years old, Mianzhu people) who spread rumors according to law on January 26.

    The police reiterated that the Internet is not a place outside the law. Public security organs will investigate and deal with illegal acts that fabricate and spread rumors and disrupt public order. It is hoped that the majority of netizens will not believe or spread rumors, jointly maintain a good network environment, unite as one, and fight the epidemic together. (Finish)" (Source)

    In this and other reports, the method of investigation and subsequent punishment are not specified.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:11pm

    Agent700

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 02 2014

    Posts: 41

    2+

    Chinese Censorship

    Yes Sparky, I can confirm this. I live and work within this system, this "law" has been used before and was just sent out this morning again to all WeChat users. Here is the English version:

    WeChat Announces Actions to Crack Down on Misinformation

    We'll end today's update with a timely reminder regarding the penalties for spreading false information. CCTV reported yesterday on WeChat's "Announcement on the Special Control of Rumors Related to New Coronavirus Pneumonia" which specifically calls out rumors and misinformation that is instilling panic in the public. They point out that the "Criminal Law Amendment (9)" clearly stipulates: "Those who seriously disrupt the social order through the fabrication of false dangers, epidemics, disasters, and police information, or by spreading knowingly false information online or in other media, shall be sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment, detention or control of less than 3 years. If they cause serious consequences, they shall be sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment of 3 to 7 years. WeChat has vowed to crack down on rumor-like information and has hired third-party rumor removal agencies on the platform to manage content removal and step up punishment of violating accounts according to the degree of violation: including, but not limited to, limiting or permanently blocking accounts or account functions.

    Source: 封号!对散布疫情谣言的账号进行限期或永久封禁处理

    Must Protect Social Harmony and Great Leaders!

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:20pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    3+

    China Virus: Chilling videos from Wuhan show coronavirus infected men, women collapsing in streets

    China Virus: Chilling videos from Wuhan show coronavirus infected men, women collapsing in streets
    Several videos have emerged from Wuhan, the epicenter of a new coronavirus outbreak that is threatening to turn into a global epidemic, if not contained soon.

    Videos that are claiming to be from Wuhan depict a scary scene with infected men and women literally 'dropping like flies' in streets, shops and some even inside long hospital queues.

    ==================================

    This one sums up most of the videos (with the user adding in the eerie music). There are others showing the bodies of people in the hallway at a hospital. As usual always be sceptical of anything put together like this on youtube.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nAPp0a4cks

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 9:35pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    Agent700, Mike: Appreciate your "boots-on-the-ground" perspective!

    Wow, Agent700, I didn't realize that the law and repercussions were that severe! It seems quite subjective in terms of process and application.

    I really appreciate the "boots-on-the-ground" reports and perspective provided by you, Mike from NJ, and other PP members.  Thank you for keeping us informed, but please, not if it places you or your loved ones at risk. Please stay alert, healthy and safe during this rapidly deteriorating situation.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 11:02pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    New York State: 7 suspected cases 2019-nCoV under investigation

    https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/NYS-now-testing-seven-people-for-coronavirus-15005905.php

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 11:37pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    Washington State: 3 UW students in Seattle being screened for 2019-nCoV

    https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/01/26/three-uw-students-in-seattle-screened-for-novel-coronavirus/

    h/t, FluTrackers,

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Jan 26, 2020 - 11:54pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    2+

    Seattle restaurant fears for family's life amid Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China

    [edit, bold added]

    "Jing’s parents in Wuhan have been quarantined. And her aunt and uncle there have tested positive for coronavirus. She hasn't heard from them in three days.
    "My auntie says everyday hospital is packed and doctors cannot accept any more patients," Jing said. The Wetzels say photos they’ve seen of Wuhan are so surprising.
    "There’s absolutely no food on the shelves,” Greg said. “We’re seeing lots of photos coming streets completely empty. It's strange to see that. Wuhan is a huge city."'

    https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-restaurant-fears-for-familys-life-amid-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 9:24am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    CDC is monitoring 110 possible coronavirus cases across 26 states in US

    CDC is monitoring 110 possible coronavirus cases across 26 states in US

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:10pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 451

    Already had it? (cross post)

    In December, I traveled to LA for Christmas with my mom.  After a week after I got home (first week of January), I came exceedingly close to getting sick for the first time since the swine flu ('08?).  When I could feel the virus trying to take over, I did all my usual preventatives and got a mammoth night's sleep.  I was definitely off for another 5-6 days, but I nipped it in the bud before I had to take to bed and ride it out.

    Sore throat (bad!), fatigue, cough (still lingering a couple weeks later).

    A woman I am dating also got it, but she had been burning the candle at both ends with a home renovation and was worn down and got knocked on her behind for 4-5 days.  Her throat and lungs became so raw from cough that when she gargled salt water, the water came out light pink (at the worst of it).  Concurrently, my son's mother and my son (3 years old) both had sinus/chest/flu bouts -- his lasted a 5-6 days and required antibiotics when he developed a sinus infection, and his mother (as indomitable a human as I know) near about ended up in the ER with throat pain and lung tightness.

    Yesterday, the woman I'm dating reminded me of all this.  It had slipped my mind (I had semi-major surgery about 10 days ago and am in the process of moving;  my 2020 is crowded, noisy and intense so far).  She and I wondered if we'd had an early meetup with CoV.  I live on Maui (air travel crossroads, LOTS of Chinese tourists), and had been to LA (while there I visited the gym twice, a perfect place to swap coronaviruses with strangers) in the timeframe we now know the virus was active.

    Just posting this for anecdotal purposes.  Probably wasn't CoV.  Wouldn't mind if it was, since I (and my fam and ladyfriend) would have immunity to the next wave.

    VIVA -- Sager

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:11pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 451

    Already had it? (cross post)

    In December, I traveled to LA for Christmas with my mom.  After a week after I got home (first week of January), I came exceedingly close to getting sick for the first time since the swine flu ('08?).  When I could feel the virus trying to take over, I did all my usual preventatives and got a mammoth night's sleep.  I was definitely off for another 5-6 days, but I nipped it in the bud before I had to take to bed and ride it out.

    Sore throat (bad!), fatigue, cough (still lingering a couple weeks later).

    A woman I am dating also got it, but she had been burning the candle at both ends with a home renovation and was worn down and got knocked on her behind for 4-5 days.  Her throat and lungs became so raw from cough that when she gargled salt water, the water came out light pink (at the worst of it).  Concurrently, my son's mother and my son (3 years old) both had sinus/chest/flu bouts -- his lasted a 5-6 days and required antibiotics when he developed a sinus infection, and his mother (as indomitable a human as I know) near about ended up in the ER with throat pain and lung tightness.

    Yesterday, the woman I'm dating reminded me of all this.  It had slipped my mind (I had semi-major surgery about 10 days ago and am in the process of moving;  my 2020 is crowded, noisy and intense so far).  She and I wondered if we'd had an early meetup with CoV.  I live on Maui (air travel crossroads, LOTS of Chinese tourists), and had been to LA (while there I visited the gym twice, a perfect place to swap coronaviruses with strangers) in the timeframe we now know the virus was active.

    Just posting this for anecdotal purposes.  Probably wasn't CoV.  Wouldn't mind if it was, since I (and my fam and ladyfriend) would have immunity to the next wave.

     

    VIVA -- Sager

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:22pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 799

    7+

    CrossPosted: One Hand Dirty / One Hand Clean

    Chris has pointed out that the most likely way you will become infected is to touch your hand to a contaminated surface like a door handle, and then touch your faces, eyes or nose. Its easy to unconsciously do just that, especially if you are like me and wear glasses.

    What you could do now is practice the habit of only touching a common surface with one hand, and only touching your face with the other. My thought is to put a big bandage on the back of one hand, and use that as a reminder as you go through the day. No one will question you if you say you cut your hand. Develop muscle memory now before a mistake could cost you.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:36pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    - Confirmed cases: 4,275 in China, 44 abroad

     

    (Look at my post #101 to see how quickly the confirmed cases are growing)

    Here is what we know so far:

    - Confirmed cases: 4,275 in China, 44 abroad

    - Deaths: 106 (all in China)

    - Human-to-human transmission confirmed

    - Health experts say the virus has the potential to mutate

    - 30 cities and provinces have launched Level I emergency response, while Hong Kong declared its "highest" emergency response.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:51pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    2+

    China coronavirus death toll climbs to 106 as confirmed cases near 4,500

    China coronavirus death toll climbs to 106 as confirmed cases near 4,500

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 8:40pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    1+

    Update: Confirmed 2019-nCoV Case Count, by Country (1/27/20)

    2019-nCov Confirmed Case List by Country - Total cases = 4,576 Total deaths = 106 (as of 9:40 ET, January 27, 2020) - Disclaimer: We do not endorse any of these numbers

    Australia: 5 cases

    Canada: 2 cases

    China: 4,515 "confirmed" cases & 106 "confirmed" deaths (from the report dated 28/1/20)

    France: 3 cases

    Hong Kong: 8 cases

    Japan: 3 cases

    Macau: 6 cases

    Malaysia: 4 cases

    Nepal: 1 case

    Singapore: 5 cases

    South Korea: 4 cases

    Taiwan: 5 cases

    Thailand: 8 cases

    United States: 5 cases

    Vietnam: 2 cases

    FluTrackers, posted by Sharon Shanders (Source)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 8:47pm

    Dogs_In_A_Pile

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jan 04 2009

    Posts: 824

    7+

    nCoV Global Summary (Johns Hopkins)

    Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by Johns Hopkins CSSE)
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0vf9k-Jr07mhls9Px-G2lqJkUmAKYRq773XmnqT4WZ7QZZELjfNqp_wRA#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 9:44pm

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 308

    1+

    In reply to : sounds like the regular crude this year

    This is regarding an earlier with flu symptoms  -- not discounting the novel corona virus !

    The "regular" flu that has been going around this year has been much worse than normal.  I had it in November and I dont remember ever being that ill.  So, what you describe just sounds like the real bad flu that has been making the rounds this winter.

     

    Hopefully we wont experience the new corona

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 7:55am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    Coronavirus: Germany confirms first human transmission in Europe – live updates

    Coronavirus: Germany confirms first human transmission in Europe – live updates
     

    Taiwan has reported its first case of domestic transmission of the new coronavirus.

    Taiwan’s central epidemic command centre said the latest patient, the eighth, was the first case of transmission on the island as in all the previous cases the people had been infected first in China.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 8:50am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    The true scale of the growing coronavirus crisis in Australia - as it's declared a potential PANDEMIC

    Hundreds abandoned at Ground Zero, a celebrity hotel on lockdown and families rushed to a Sydney hospital: The true scale of the growing coronavirus crisis in Australia - as it's declared a potential PANDEMIC

     

    The coronavirus has the potential to become a pandemic in Australia, health officials have warned. On Tuesday, paramedics completely covered in decontamination gear were called to a luxury Gold Coast hotel after receiving reports a guest had been exhibiting symptoms of the potential fatal disease

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 3:11pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    5571 cases (zerohedge)

    Link

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047979/china-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-131-number-cases-surpasses

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 4:02pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

    China coronavirus: Villages build walls and checkpoints to stop outsiders spreading infection

    "Guardhouses and checkpoints are being put up by communities desperate to stop the virus reaching their area."

    "Small villages in China are barricading themselves in against the coronavirus. They are not acting on government orders but taking matters into their own hands."

    https://news.sky.com/story/china-coronavirus-villages-build-walls-and-checkpoints-to-stop-outsiders-spreading-infection-11919727

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 9:34am

    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 56

    Australian panic debunked

    See item 16 at link:
    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/coronavirus-disinformation-spread

    I trust the Daily Mail's clickbait about as much as I trust the Chinese gov.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 10:32am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    WHO.....Emergency meeting on Thursday

    Search link

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 10:38am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    20% of the patients become severely ill

    WHO officials say coronavirus spread outside of China is of ‘grave concern’
     

    WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the “continued increase in cases and the evidence of human-to-human transmission outside of China are, of course, most deeply disturbing.” The illness produces a range of symptoms with about 20% of the patients becoming severely ill, including pneumonia and respiratory failure, he said.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 3:12pm

    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 56

    Trusted Sources, Mebbe.

    A curated list of reputable Coronavirus experts on Twitter.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/i/lists/1220869298631200769

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:34pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    2+

    Coronavirus outbreak: Over 7,700 cases confirmed in China, 170 dead

    Coronavirus outbreak: Over 7,700 cases confirmed in China, 170 dead

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:41pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    12,167 people were suspected of being infected with the virus as of the end of Wednesday.

    The National Health Commission said in its daily report that 1,370 patients remained in critical conditions, and 12,167 people were suspected of being infected with the virus as of the end of Wednesday.

    A total of 124 people had been discharged from hospital after recovery.

    Wednesday saw 1,737 new confirmed cases, including the first confirmed case in Tibet Autonomous Region, 4,148 new suspected cases, and 38 deaths -- 37 in Hubei Province and one in Sichuan Province.

    Also on Wednesday, 131 patients became seriously ill, and 21 people were discharged from hospital after recovery.

    A total of 88,693 close contacts had been traced, the commission said, adding that among them, 2,364 were discharged from medical observation on Wednesday, with 81,947 others still under medical observation.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 6:55pm

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2365

    Unable to follow link in post #122

    The link doesn't work.  It is a Chinese site.

    Saxplayer, can you re-find that link and try again please?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 7:04pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    Using Google search link

    It was working when I just tried it, but this should work for you.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 7:38pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    315,000 ill by Feb 6.

    Coronavirus: Epidemic or Pandemic?
    According to Bianco Research in Chicago, based on official China National Health Commission data, the geometric rate of transmission where every infected person can infect 2 to 2.5 people, we could be looking at 88,000 sick by February 3 and 315,000 ill by Feb 6.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 8:54pm

    Alex Earle

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 14 2015

    Posts: 14

    Alex Earle said:

    You must be new around here😂

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:01am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    "I think we need to put it into context"....(my bad sense of humor for the day)

    Ex-Obama health advisor: US needs to ‘stop panicking and being hysterical’ about coronavirus

    • Americans are too worried about the new coronavirus that’s spreading rapidly across China, former White House health advisor Ezekiel Emanuel told CNBC on Thursday
    • “Everyone in America should take a very big breath, slow down and stop panicking and being hysterical,” said Dr. Emanuel.
    • “I think we need to put it into context, the death rate is much lower than for SARS,” he added.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:05am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    Coronavirus cases top 8,200 — surpassing 2003 SARS outbreak in less than a month

    Coronavirus cases top 8,200 — surpassing 2003 SARS outbreak in than a month
    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday it was monitoring 165 individuals for possible exposure to the virus in the U.S. So far, five people had tested positive, 68 individuals tested negative and the CDC was awaiting results for 92 individuals. U.S. health officials say the threat to the U.S. public still remains low.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:21am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    Coronavirus Has Now Spread To All Regions Of Mainland China

    Coronavirus Has Now Spread To All Regions Of Mainland China
    "Ben Cowling, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, says that in the last few days the trajectory of this outbreak has grown much clearer," NPR's Jason Beaubien reports from Hong Kong. He adds, "Cowling says the outbreak is just getting started and he expects to see increased levels of transmission globally including in the United States."

    "I think it's quite likely that you will see human-to-human transmission in U.S. cities within the next two or three weeks," Cowling says............................Nearly 82,000 people were under medical observation in China out of concern that they might have the virus, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention says.

    Huanggang's director of health commission removed amid coronavirus outbreak

    The Director of the health commission of Huanggang in central China's Hubei Province Tang Zhihong has been removed from her post for dereliction of duty amid a fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak.

    The Huanggang municipal committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) made the announcement on Thursday.

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:06am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    CDC confirms first human-to-human transmission of coronavirus in US

    CDC confirms first human-to-human transmission of coronavirus in US
    The World Health Organization is reconvening an emergency meeting Thursday at 1:30 p.m. ET where the organization will decide whether the new virus constitutes a global health emergency.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:01am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 799

    1+

    A View From The Hot Zone

    This article describes what the conditions on the ground.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/asia/chinese-health-care-virus-intl-hnk/index.html

    I found this interesting in light of Chris' point about China under reporting the cases of infection:

    "The truth about the virus also came too late for other patients in Wuhan's hospitals.

    By January 26, Shi began to have a fever -- one of the symptoms of the novel coronavirus. She went to the hospital's fever clinic where she found over 20 patients, all waiting to be tested by one doctor.
    She says she was given three tests -- a nasal swipe to rule out the flu, a CT scan to compare her lungs against those of infected patients, and a blood test. After nine hours of tests and waiting for results she says the doctor told her that she had coronavirus, but because he could not give her the fourth and most definitive test, she could only be considered a suspected patient. Her 67-year-old father is in the same situation.
    Shi called hospitals all over Wuhan, trying in vain to find one with the confirmation test -- a reagent test which chemically tests for the virus.
    For now, Shi and her father are not counted in the official statistics of people infected."

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:20am

    Alex Earle

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 14 2015

    Posts: 14

    Alex Earle said:

    This is HUGE

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:29pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    China reports 9,692 confirmed cases of new virus, death toll rises to 213

    China reports 9,692 confirmed cases of new virus, death toll rises to 213

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:42pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    102427 people were receiving medical observation.

    In Chinese

    Use this to translate
    At 04:00 on January 30, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 1982 new confirmed cases, 157 severe cases, and 43 new deaths (42 cases in Hubei Province, Heilongjiang Province). 1 case in the province), 47 new cases were cured and discharged, 4812 new cases were suspected.
    As of 2400 on January 30, the National Health and Health Commission has received a total of 9692 confirmed cases (31 cases in Sichuan Province have been confirmed), and 1,527 severe cases have been reported. A total of 213 deaths and 171 cases were cured and discharged, with a total of 15,238 suspected cases.
    At present, 113579 close contacts have been traced (21 cases of Beijing nuclear reduction), 4201 people were released from medical observation on the same day, and a total of 102427 people were receiving medical observation.
    A total of 28 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan: 12 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 7 in the Macao Special Administrative Region, and 9 in Taiwan.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 4:12am

    Jignesh Sanghvi

    Jignesh Sanghvi

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 1

    How does weather impact Coronavirus?

    There is so much useful information and Chris has been fantastic. Does living in hot and humid condition reduces the probability of spreading the Corona virus?

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 8:35am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1+

    Wuhan Virus Latest: Nearly 10,000 Cases as More Nations Shut their Borders

    Wuhan Virus Latest: Nearly 10,000 Cases as More Nations Shut their Borders

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 9:43am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    From 500 to 10,000 confirmed infected in 8 days

    Headlines from January 23

    Just look at my previous link to see today's 10,000 number. How do we think things will look in 8 more days? Maybe 16 or 24?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 12:52pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    Coronavirus Costs China’s Service Sector $144 Billion in a Week

    Coronavirus Costs China’s Service Sector $144 Billion in a Week

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Mar 20, 2020 - 12:24am

    zza

    zza

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 18 2020

    Posts: 7

    1+

    Intermixig of races usually has negative influence on the immune system of descendants.

    From theyflyblog.com thread on "Harsh Truth from Plejaren About SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic" published 25-FEB-2020:

    "Fundamentally, Ptaah explained, that the (inter)mixing of peoples should therefore be refrained from, above all, because it usually has a negative influence on the immune system of the descendants, although in exceptions a positive influence is also possible, which however cannot be predicted. Every (inter)mixing of human beings of different peoples inevitably changes the immune system, weakens it or strengthens it, as the case may be. So the immune system of a member of a people with a stronger and more stable or much weaker immune system, can transfer this immune system stability positively or negatively. A weakening can already occur/happen through a longer or shorter stay in a country whose people have a weaker and more unstable immune system, which is why travelling to faraway countries also involves certain dangers in this respect."

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Mar 20, 2020 - 12:37am

    Broadspectrum

    Broadspectrum

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 14 2009

    Posts: 48

    Can't Let A Statement Like That Slide

    zza,

    At the risk of this post being flagged, which is what I should just (justly) do to yours I'm going to say (and I don't say very much very often), sounds like you may be an offspring of someone who has been breeding with 1st cousins or siblings.  Enough said.

    Broadspectrum

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Mar 20, 2020 - 1:18am

    Lisa-Michelle

    Lisa-Michelle

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 20 2020

    Posts: 1

    1+

    Lisa-Michelle said:

    For you to be so offended and rude to Chris .. without seeing you I can tell you’re one of those unfortunate mixed-race ‘people’.  I can’t imagine how difficult it must be, to be you 😉

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Mar 20, 2020 - 9:42pm

    Tweetybird

    Tweetybird

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 21 2020

    Posts: 2

    Tweetybird said:

    ED ??? Never heard that one.

    PS I'm new here today.

    PPS It would be so easy at the start of your piece to define seldomly used terms.

    Login or Register to post comments