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    Disruptions Triggered By The Coronavirus Are Now Exploding Everywhere

    Get ready for the BOOM! phase
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, March 13, 2020, 6:13 PM

Looking at Ben Hunt’s “case, case, case, cluster, cluster…BOOM!” progression for covid-19, more and more countries are now entering the late cluster stage.

That means, expect Italy, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Spain, France, Germany, the US and a number of others to enter the “BOOM!” phase shortly.

That’s when hospitals become hopelessly overwhelmed, deaths begin skyrocketing, and government mass lockdowns get enacted.

We’re not saying this to scare you. We just want you emotionally prepared for what’s likely coming.

Look at the phase change in attitude that has happened in the past 2 weeks.

The public went from complacent to panicked. The markets tipped from greed to extreme fear.

That’s with less than 2 thousand known covid-19 cases in the US.

What will be like if the models are correct, and we have *4 million* cases in two months?

Hopefully you watched our update yesterday in which Chris walked through the Adjustment Response progression. Make sure you and those around you are taking the time now to process your own, so that when the real crisis gets started, you’re ready to face it.

The time to prepare is now over. Now it’s about managing through what’s coming.

Get ready. And stay safe!

The coronavirus preparation megathreads available for free on PeakProsperity.com are a great resource for those still preparing:

  1. Coronavirus: Sanitation, PPE and Self Quarantine Megathread
  2. Coronavirus: Medicinals, Herbals and Supplements Megathread
  3. Coronavirus: Home Prep, Deep Pantry & Gardening Megathread

If you’re one of the many new readers here on Peak Prosperity, be sure you’re up-to-date on developments with the coronavirus. All of our latest covid-19 video updates, podcasts and articles can be accessed here for free.

And here’s a brief list of the more recent material that Chris and I have published for our premium subscribers, to give you a sense of what’s behind the paywall (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

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246 Comments

  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 7:04pm

    #1
    spiker

    spiker

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 04 2012

    Posts: 9

    3

    Thoughts on second and third order effects

    Think it might be worth talking 2nd and 3rd order effects.

    Fin collapse

    Hospital collapse

    Doctors suddenly retire

    Retail collapse

    Recession depression

    Renewed family bonding

    Institutional collapse - churches

    Personal bankruptcy

    Community outreach

    Interested in other thoughts.

     

     

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 7:06pm

    #2
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 728

    2

    So FL is a shit show at ER

    My sister in law was just sent to the ER by her Dr.  My bro said its a shit- show at the hospital - she is now in isolation..  She is one never to be sick and usually gets very mild symptoms compared to most.    She has no underlying medical and barely 50 years old.

    Update, I was pretty upset they went to hospital - it would certainly pose a risk ..  if you didnt have it..  But what i dont get, is how stupid they both can be.   Anyway she doesnt have it.. she has the flu..  But , I was angry they went - they said she couldnt breathe - and was dizzy.. I told them there is no way she is sick enough to need the hospital.. She caught the flu from her son that was home last weekend from school.  .  You cant develop pneumonia in three days.. with covid or the flu.. I cant believe they are this dumb to expose themselves - for something obvious.. She had what I define as A COVID panic attack.. .

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 7:22pm

    #3
    karenchantal

    karenchantal

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 93

    2

    Reality is setting In

    My small town was slow to boil, but it is full tilt panic.  It just went from zero to 60 in 1 day,

    Calm, till we got out 1st covid case.  Now, not a roll of toilet paper in any store.

    At Amazon, I cannot comment officially as I am a small worker bee...  But if you look at our web page, toilet paper and Lysol were already sold out.  But now food items like Mac and Cheese are sold out.  Rice is gone.  Spaghetti is gone.  But lol, plenty of international foods.  Get your falafel while you can!

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 7:50pm

    #4
    yogmonster

    yogmonster

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    Joined: Apr 01 2013

    Posts: 48

    3

    She's warming up

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 7:53pm

    #5
    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    So sorry, Idaho

    I see Idaho has its first case.  The US crossed the 1000 case line on Tuesday, and I see we are over 2000 cases, confirmed, today, Friday.  So, even with crappy testing, which means orders of magnitude higher actual infected, the doubling time appears to be around three days.  I am in far eastern Oregon.  Last trip to town was Monday, this week.  Grocery store stocked up. No concern, clerk in hardware store laughed at my gloves.  Got a package I signed for from UPS, today.  I took it at the locked front gate, with gloves and a garbage bag for the delivery guy to drop it in.  UPS guy not even gloves.  Closest case is near Bend in central Oregon, about two hours west.  A lot of locals go there for medical and Costco runs.  All our mail and UPS, Fed. Ex., travels from there.  So, I wait.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:19pm

    #6
    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

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    5

    I nominate The Toilet Paper Roll as the official symbol of the corona virus outbreak

    I have to crack up when I see people cleaning out the toilet paper in stores.  There's just something that's humorous about that to me.  I wonder how the cloth diaper supply is holding up?

     

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:23pm

    ao

    ao

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    1

    spiker, here's my main thought

    Bored people sequestered in their homes equals many babies ... a baby boom.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:26pm

    #8

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    14

    Let Me Just Say This

    We all here are way ahead of the curve, thanks to Chris and Adam, so take a deep breath and exhale.

    This weekend is when you should stay in and hunker down. The people who were dismissing everything we told them are running scared and its going to be a mad house out there.

    Even if you still need a few things, just stay home. Shelves are going to empty and people are going to be short tempered and angry. Don't mix up in that.

    There is still a deep supply of most things in warehouses around your towns but not at the stores, so shelves will empty but by Monday or Tuesday we should see them restock. That's your window to go grab what you need. Most people will still have to go into work next week. Its not to the point many companies are going to send their workers home.

    Review what you need, make your lists and decide where you want to shop. Have alternative sources. Know where you can get by without or with less.

    The national government was slow to do anything about this, which almost certainly means they will overreact in the opposite direction soon. Local officials and local law enforcement is going to have everyone up their behinds, making them short tempered. Don't put yourself into a position of having to interact with them. Drive the speed limit, use your turn signal.

    Health care workers are already at their limit and can clearly see how they are going to get screwed. Don't add to the problem.

    Everyone of us is miles ahead of the pack. Remember that and take comfort that you are going to be ok.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:34pm

    #9
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    I dont get the whole toilet paper raid thing

    why is toilet paper such a necessity?  i mean we have water?  i guess they plan for no water.. which i guess is a problem if you live in the desert.    But , a bucked and a rag - is all you need , why all this paper?   I mean arabs dont even use toilet paper.. They use water and a rag.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:36pm

    #10
    Janie-em

    Janie-em

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 05 2020

    Posts: 43

    5

    Failure to get a test at a local hospital, despite meeting the criteria, Key Stone Cops antics

    I'm sick and can't get tested.

    I returned from Europe near the end of February, symptoms started showing a week later. It was like having a cold or hay fever: runny nose, post nasal drip, slight cough, a little achey, no fever. A week later, they progressed to severe s.t., severe headache, major coughing, (small blood spots in phlegm) trouble breathing at night, slight fever 99/100. Called a telemedicine provider and got antibiotic. Started getting better slowly with the antibiotic and with supplements and herbs listed in the Mega threads. Thanks PP people!)

    A day or so later I was told to go for a follow-up to local hospital. Mine is a renowned system here in San Diego, just down the road from the Salk Institute. They tell me to park in a pop up tent, (like the small ones you bring to a soccer game for shade) in front of the hospital for assessment. There is a lot of confusion from the harried triage nurse who comes out after an hour, why am I here? who told me to park here? (I'm the only car who can fit into the tiny tent.) who is the nurse who told you to park here? and on and on. It seems the urgent care nurse who told me to park in the triage area failed to inform the triage nurse they had a patient, and there was friction. She disappears for another half hour. I consider peeling out of the parking lot carrying the soccer tent with me.

    Nurse comes back to say I'll have to wait, she has other patients and sometimes the wait is five hours. Meanwhile I've been there, first in line for an hour and a half. Several cars pull up in back of me, she takes them all before me. We all wait for assessment and possible testing, all of us slowing the flow of hospital traffic, in and out of the lot.

    The ambulance drivers give me dirty looks and make remarks because I am blocking the Ambulance Entrance, for hours. In fact the tent and the rest of the triage area impede their progress, forcing them to wrangle their patients next to my car, with me coughing constantly, and through the triage area.

    When the nurse finally comes to assess me, I explain I'm starting to breathe and feel better, but was told to come in by their e-medicine nurse who was concerned about my symptoms and travel. I try to show her my calendar with the dates of foreign travel and the symptom on-set a week later. She doesn't want to see it, just wants me to tell her and interrupts constantly, with questions that show she isn't listening.

    Finally a P.A. comes out and listens to my lungs and says yes I am still congested, asks me if I have asthma. I say no. He says "Well you've been sick too long to be shedding the virus enough for the test to pick up, and besides you're starting to feel better, so we won't test you. It sounds like you have some pluerisy, though so I'll prescribe you a steroid and an inhaler and some cough syrup."  I am coughing violently throughout the assessment.

    I am dejected at this point because I'm sick, and it's been a long wait in the car for little result. He says "But you look great, so there's that!" He gives me big smile and off he goes.

    I get home and open up my mail from the medical system and read the hospital visit notes: the entire assessment notes are incorrect, including the listing of onset of symptoms as being a week earlier than they actually were; this makes it look like I've been sick for close to a month instead of two weeks, and listing me as having a high fever at the onset, no, it was much later and only slight, etc.

    If this is the protocol for testing patients, God help us when they try to care for them.

     

     

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:44pm

    #11

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    4

    Megathread updated to 3/9, PLUS here are the comments from the Premium videos too

    The three Megathreads have been updated to 3/9/2020 and you can read them online here:

    Peak Prosperity Covid19 Library of Files

    I have also begun doing subject compilations, which you can access by clicking the "Blog" link at the top of the page. Scroll down for those, past the three main megathreads. I have 4 now and more to follow.

    The website now includes the Premium Video Comments too for the important subjects, I don't think Chris or Adam will mind if I post them for the free members too, which you can find here:

    Peak Prosperity Premium: Sanitation, PPE and Self Quarantine

    Peak Prosperity Premium: Home Prep, Deep Pantry & Gardening

    Peak Prosperity Premium: Medicinals, Herbal and Vitamin Supplements

    As before, if you would like copies of these files, PM me and include your email address and which files you would like, please.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:50pm

    #12
    cicerone

    cicerone

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    Joined: Sep 22 2019

    Posts: 26

    1

    San Francisco Report

    I live in San Mateo County south of San Francisco. Some anecdotes:

    - All county schools closed from today into April at least.
    - Local markets are totally out of rice, pasta, toilet paper, bottled water and hand sanitizer.
    - My whole company is now remote with no return to work date.
    - My wife works in the City and cannot work remote. She's been stretching her PTO but has to go in on Sunday. N95 masked of course.
    - It's been very warm and dry in California for all of Feb but cold and rain scheduled starting tonight into next week.
    - Outside of the (relatively large) Asian community, very few people wearing masks.

    My family is somewhat prepared. We have a deep pantry of the staple items above for at least a month.  It doesn't freeze here so I've had some winter crops growing, mainly garlic, lettuce and potatoes in addition to our fruit trees. Our Meyer Lemon has been going gangbusters. Vitamin C!

    Bottom line, I fully expect a lockdown "all'Italiana" to take hold here soon. Our governor quietly announced executive authority to seize hotels through eminent domain and deploy the national guard to battle the virus. Yikes. My meager preps won't save me from the chaos but at least give me a tiny bit more discretion about when I venture out for supplies. Stay safe everyone.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 8:50pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    0

    Nordicjack, its crowd dynamics and fear

    "I don't get the whole toilet paper raid thing."

    Its easy enough to understand. You're at home and see all the people buying toilet paper and the empty shelves on the news and laugh. Then you get to the store. You see people with full carts of TP, and think "What do they know, I don't?"

    You go to the aisle and see it almost cleaned out, people grabbing packages and you think "What do they know, I don't?" so you grab a package or two, then grab one more for insurance.

    You think what a bummer it would be to not have toilet paper to wipe your butt, so you grab one more just to be safe. You think, "What if I run out too?" Now you are at the checkout with a cart full of TP.

    Multiple that hundred times.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 9:03pm

    #14
    NorthElkhound

    NorthElkhound

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    Joined: Feb 06 2020

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    3

    nursing students

    I worked today as home health care for  woman in rent-controlled senior/disabled apartment building in Boise, ID, 48 units, run by City of Boise. I asked manager if they are wiping door handles and elevators buttons. No, only maintenance allowed to do that and he isn't doing it. Then 12 Boise State nursing students sailed in to teach residents the basics of diabetes self-care. NOT ONE had used hand sanitizer or had gloves. I dispensed sanitizer to each of them, while each noted my frown of disapproval.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 9:05pm

    cicerone

    cicerone

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    Joined: Sep 22 2019

    Posts: 26

    1

    Testing is a joke

    @Janie-em

    Wow, yeah, our health care system is an epic fail at this moment. My wife and I have Kaiser up here near San Francisco. We both have what could be Covid-19: low fever (always 99-101), sore itchy throat, a bit of dry coughing and runny nose. Nothing serious at all, but it just feels lodged there in my throat and chest for the last week or so. I may be imagining things, but it doesn't feel like anything I've had before.

    In any case, we can't get tested either. We don't qualify by Kaiser's standards. It's possible we're classic community spreaders.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 9:15pm

    #16
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 462

    1

    BC update March 13th evening

    11 new cases in BC. The article has testings stats and a chart which is looking increasingly like we are getting to the cluster cluster phase 🙁

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-lions-gate-hospital-north-vancouver-1.5497033

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 9:25pm

    #17
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 462

    0

    a few more BC headlines...

    https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/b-c-couple-confronted-at-costco-for-buying-bulk-lysol-wipes-to-re-sell-for-profit-1.5496733

    Travellers abandon flights from Victoria International Airport following COVID-19 measures

    Don’t line up for coronavirus testing without calling 811 first, health officials say

     

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 9:37pm

    #18

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    0

    Play Dates For Kids In The Age Of Infection

    Interesting article

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/parenting/kids-playdates-coronavirus.html

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 9:58pm

    #19

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 427

    2

    Schools near Albany, NY

    Two suburban school districts in the area were closed today after a positive test of a student and a direct contact with a confirmed case.  At 3 PM the governor announced not penalties for falling short of 180 school days this year.  Within minutes, at least 6 more districts including my town announced they would be closed next week.  I have been in communication with the superintendent all week feeding him information which he did his best to digest, several times asking for more.  I've included well organized summaries of the data organized into a coherent narrative (with a heartfelt appeal) that tells the story "Why Close School".  This particular piece helped a lot.  He was interested in the spreadsheet it links to for computing your organization's risk so he could share it with other superintendents (see the link in the first comment).  I believe the spreadsheet is too conservative especially with low case counts because it assumes too many imported cases that would not be linked to current undetected community spread.  That might have been valid a month ago, but not now.

    Anyway, I hope I played a role in his decision.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 10:00pm

    #20
    Spikenard

    Spikenard

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    Joined: Mar 13 2020

    Posts: 16

    5

    Spikenard said:

    New here. This is my goto site for accurate info. Chris and Adam are heros! I live in France which I now call the Alfred E Newman country. Thanks to PP, I‘ve been stocking up on food, water, and PQ (tp) for a month and continue to do so when I must go out. I‘m 70 so I use a respirator outdoors or N95 masks. I cover that with a long scarf which is up there with eating frogs for defining who is French. I don‘t mind looking weird to other people, as nonconformity never bothers me. I didn‘t have to go through the adjustment process. Once I started listening to Chris in January on this subject, I immediately saw the light, kind of like Peter and Andrew when they heard the words *Follow me!*

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 10:07pm

    #21
    rgmann

    rgmann

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    Joined: Feb 11 2016

    Posts: 2

    1

    Chris to your point regarding travel from EUROPE THROUGH MEXIC0

    In your recent podcast you were wondering if travelers could circumvent the prohibition for travel from Europe to the US. It is not only easy....but in fact encouraged by the lunatic government in Mexico. They came out the same day the prohibition was announced in the US...saying that all those potentially cancelled flights would be welcome in Mexico. Fortunately, that is not going to be potentially possible as the airport infrastructure would not be sufficient.

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 10:37pm

    #22
    Grayman

    Grayman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2020

    Posts: 32

    2

    NZ tightens border controls to .... 'flatten the curve' - (Hey Chris - someone gets it! Hooray!)

    NZ PM Jacinda Ardern announces new rules for travellers to NZ (including returning New Zealanders)

    Effective from midnight Sunday, all travellers, except for those coming from the Pacific Islands, will have to self-isolate for 14 days on their arrival to New Zealand.
    • The PM says the rules are the toughest in the world.
    • She told New Zealanders not to travel overseas if they don't have to and issued stark advice: no hugs, hongi or handshakes.
    • All cruise ships have been asked to not come to NZ until June 30.
    • There will also be further announcements on mass gatherings.

    Strict new border exit measures for people travelling to the Pacific have also been put in place:
    • People who have travelled outside of New Zealand in the past 14 days are not permitted to travel to the Pacific islands.
    • No travel to the Pacific for close or casual contacts of a confirmed case.
    • No travel for anyone who is symptomatic.

    • Health assessment including temperature checks will be done.

    • Restrictions prevent foreign nationals travelling from or transiting through mainland China or Iran from entering New Zealand.

    • The Government has also issued a stern warning for people with health conditions to reconsider overseas cruises.

    The restrictions will be reviewed in 16 days and there will be more advice for self-isolation next week. There were already clear guidelines for employers on sick pay and working-from-home advice.

    Ardern said New Zealand was already registering all travelers who are self isolating once entering NZ . 10,500 people have already self isolated in NZ.
    The PM says the pandemic which hits hard and fast must be dealt with by "flattening the curve" to have the cases in the right place - either at home or in hospital if needed. "We must go hard and fast."

     

    While all that is good news, the fact remains that the NZ Dir Gen of Health, Dr Ashley Bloomfield still believes there is no asymptomatic transmission and no aerosolization of the disease. Oh well.

    Cheers
    Grayman

     

     

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  • Fri, Mar 13, 2020 - 11:47pm

    kiwi28

    kiwi28

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    Joined: Mar 04 2020

    Posts: 3

    3

    kiwi28 said:

    I’m so pleased to see this! It feels like very few people here in NZ ‘get it’ (especially among my age group) . I’ve been hoping the government would take some decent measures after seeing the situation rapidly deteriorating elsewhere. I wasn’t too optimistic considering the standard of information being given but this is a positive step!

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:21am

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 357

    0

    It is the optimal strategy

    The was a Zero hedge article on it, an economics theory that got the guy (team ?)a noble prize, and the effect named after him. forgot his name though...

     

    Cheers Hamish

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:27am

    #25
    brianwilliams82

    brianwilliams82

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 05 2018

    Posts: 15

    0

    Hard and fast measures being taken in Europe too

    Behind the former Iron Curtain, things are moving fast. It was announced at 5am on Saturday morning here in Czech Rep that all shops with the exception of food/medicine/fuel and 1 or two other exceptions are shut for 10 days. The state of emergency lasts another 28, so I expect this to be extended. We're fully into the 'flatten the curve' phase but with 'only' 150 cases so far, there's still a chance (hopeful of it, but not entirely optimistic)

    I was planning on going to the outdoor garden centre to buy a raspberry plant but I guess that'll have to wait now. But if that's the worst I can complain about...

    I still get the impression that this isn't being taken seriously despite the sweeping measures. Should not take too much longer though

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:35am

    #26
    Broadspectrum

    Broadspectrum

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 14 2009

    Posts: 49

    0

    Kaiser Permanente Communication to Members

    Hello All,

    I live in Southern California in LA County.  Here's a paragraph from the E-mail that Kaiser sent out to its members.

    "If you’re healthy, you don’t need a mask

    The CDC doesn’t currently recommend the use of masks for most people. Only people who are sick with COVID-19 and the people who are caring for them should wear face masks. We’ll provide masks to members and patients who have symptoms when they come to our facilities."

    Real stupid advice if you ask me.  They also list 7 bullet points on "Advice on staying healthy".  One of those is

    • Stay home when you are sick (and keep sick children home from school).

    Instead of saying Stay TF home PERIOD.  Again to me this advice is so stupid because it ignores the fact that persons that have been exposed don't know it.  They don't know they are sick.  They will be out and about doing their "thing" thinking all is well and they won't be wearing masks because why should they, they are not sick...They don't realize that they are potentially passing it around.

    Since early January I have been dealing with several deaths (not from the virus) of persons very close to me personally or significant or inspirational to me in many ways, including two brothers and my drum teacher/inspiration, a total of 6 persons so far.  And I know that the potential for me to lose other close persons/relatives is going to happen because of this virus even hough I tried to warn them.  But they wouldn't listen.  That's what makes all of this so heart breaking for me.  As Chris keeps saying, "It didn't have to be this way".

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:40am

    #27
    Dr Rob

    Dr Rob

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 28 2008

    Posts: 2

    4

    Here is an Audio from Milan. The situation is WAY worse than the media is saying

    https://files.catbox.moe/3ns6c1.mp4

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:39am

    #28
    dgski

    dgski

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 02 2011

    Posts: 2

    0

    Audio from Milan

    Thank you Dr Rob for sharing this.  I’m guessing the US is 2-3 weeks behind this type of situation...

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:53am

    #29
    Broadspectrum

    Broadspectrum

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 14 2009

    Posts: 49

    1

    It's Like It's Christmas Eve and Nobody Knew Christmas Was Coming

    Hi All,

    Like I said, I live in Southern California, LA County which is an area of 415 square miles if memory serves me correctly.  What is it known for??  Earthquakes!!

    We have a drill every year in October called "Shake Out" (title close enough) where we are instructed to drop, cover and hold.  Good advise.  Much better than in the "old" days when we were told to stand in a doorway.  Afterwards, we're always reminded that the BIG ONE is coming "one of these days".  There have been some significant ones over the past few years but not the ultimate BIG ONE.  Lives are lost.  Buildings fall and freeways collapse. Many persons suffer the consequences of not being prepared.  And many persons just shrug their shoulders after it's over and life goes on. But does the general populace learn anything?  Do they take the advice to get ready?  Nope.  Instead it's A BIG NO TO THE BIG ONE.

    I have been volunteeringly self isolating since Sunday, March 1st.  I have taken very few calculated risks on going out even though I have a very strong prophylactic.  I also practice all the safety protocols while I do my few "hit and runs" with the last one being Wednesday.  I have not been out for two days.  However, I had a report from someone that was out today at the stores.

    The stores were packed.  Lines at stores formed before opening times.  It was if tomorrow is Christmas and nobody had done any shopping and were now desperate to find the "perfect gift".  Hardly anyone had masks except a few Asian looking persons.

    The reason why I mentioned earthquakes is because we're all supposed to be earthquake ready here in So. Cal (and CA et large).  I am!  I can hunker down for more than a month if I have to.  Guests to my home often ask why do I have so much water.  I ask them, What?  Don't you?  They usually just laugh and say something like, "Oh you're a prepper".  Your damn right I am.  The water is visible.  The food I have is not visible.  They either don't think the BIG ONE is coming or if it does they will deal with it then.  How stupid.

    So now a different type of BIG ONE has arrived and they aren't ready for even an earthquake.  God forbid we don't have one of those too on top of dealing with the virus.  Oh, but it is not "earthquake weather".   So, don't worry.  Shit is hitting the fan and it is getting on everybody.  If more persons had been prepared for an earthquake then they wouldn't be panic shopping right now.  And this virus is more than earth shaking!

    Some have said they don't have the money to prepare.  Well, from where have they found all the money now to buy the toilette paper and water and what ever else they think they need now.  Credit cards I suppose.

    You know, I have 2 litmus tests for relative intelligence.  One is 9/11 (NYC is obvious of course but it is what happened at The Pentagon that is actually more important to the whole story (not going into that right now though).  The other one (prior to 9/11) is cross walk signals.  That's right, I said cross walk signals.  How so you may ask?

    Most of us have been pedestrians all our lives right?  How many times does a person have to press the cross walk button to make it work?  It's once.  Yet I have been in my car at red lights observing pedestrians or just walking on the streets and I am amazed by how many persons stand there at the pole pressing the button over and over and over again trying to make the signal change.  Well guess what?  That's not how it works.  But for them the walk signal final comes on and they are victorious.

    My point is that these persons have been pedestrians all their lives yet they haven't figured out how the walk signals work.  The button only needs pressed once to activate the cycle.  Pressing the button only lets the system "know" that there is a person there waiting to cross the street and when the time is right in the cycle/pattern of traffic the walk signal will come on.  The walk signal doesn't come on unless the button is pressed at most intersections.  But their power of observation is so weak that they haven't figured that out yet.  Maybe one time when they were just starting out as a pedestrian they reached a cross walk and pressed the button and the walk signal came up almost immediately after just one press.  That was because they just happened to time it just right within the cycle.  Then they spend the rest of their life thinking that's how it is supposed to work.  Or, as a kid walking with their parent(s) they witness their parent pressing the button over and over until it changes and then they think that's how it works.  The times I have pointed this out the person usually gets mad at me for making them look so stupid.  But maybe they are just that, stupid.

    I know some of you may think I am being harsh on my fellow human beings but I think it is so sad that they haven't figured out something that is so simple.  But it's the same thing here with this virus.  It's no worse than the flu they say even when the facts indicate otherwise.  I really think society has been really dumbed down and it's going to be a tragedy this time on so many levels and I will have to suffer through the consequences of their stupidity too.  I know we're all in this together but it is very demoralizing knowing who I'm dealing with.

    Only a very few persons of all the person close to me have been listening to me since late January.

    The masses are so gullible and with the governments like ours that don't truly care about them living, instead caring more about the stock market, telling them to go jump off a cliff is really getting to me.  There's not much else I can do.  As Chris keeps saying, It didn't have to be like this.

    Sincerely,

    Broadspectrum

     

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:57am

    #30
    boutique1976

    boutique1976

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 4

    4

    Thank you for the daily updates!

    First off I want to say thank you so much for your daily videos! They have been my lifeline through this crisis and because of you my family is well stocked up and ready! You literally have saved our lives. We are in WA state and its getting pretty bad, our tiny island off the coast of Seattle that we live on just closed all schools and the library is closing Monday. Our stores are sold out of most things and people are panicking or self isolating. Our town is small and very close knit and people are rallying to help each other during this crisis so that has been really wonderful to see. I own a retail store here and I made the choice to close today to protect my family and my customers. The financial loss is huge but thats the least of my concerns right now. My husband works at the fire department here and my son works at Tacoma fire. They are putting there lives on the line weekly and like the drs and nurses they are the brave heroes of this pandemic. We are all trying to stay positive and just get last minute prep done. Thanks to you we are ready to face this!

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 3:21am

    #31
    NicolaHNZ

    NicolaHNZ

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    Joined: Jan 28 2020

    Posts: 19

    0

    Thank you

    Hi everyone

    Chris, thanks for the daily updates and thanks to everyone else for the comments and links to research and studies. The information here has been invaluable and I have managed to prepare as best I can as a result of that.  Asides from that, it's good to know that I'm not the only one that has been banging my head against a brick wall for weeks and weeks...

    Like a few others, I'm also in NZ and whilst we have some good news today about managing our borders with more discipline (let's hope they have moved beyond thinking a clipboard and pamphlet is sufficient), I would have liked more action, sooner. I've written to the Health Minister, the the Health Department, have bombarded various reporters with links to research but still, incorrect stories keep coming through our media channels.  So frustrating and disappointing.

    Here's hoping the changes today make a difference, and stop the "she'll be right" Kiwi attitude in its tracks. And just maybe our DG of Health may have a lightbulb moment, and realises it's past time for him to move on..

    Cheers and stay safe

    N

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 3:49am

    #32
    shimz

    shimz

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    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 38

    2

    Why not close everything?

    The global just-in-time delivery system is about to slap us in the face. Hard. It affects everything, including hospitals. With borders and transports closing, it only gets worse.

    If we close down everything too late it will be a disaster.
    If we close down everything too early it will be a different kind of disaster.
    Some choice!
    This is what governments and authorities are juggeling with. And they're actually telling us, between the lines. All you have to do is listen carefully to their choice of words. It's like going to the doctor - if he is "concerned" - then you kow you're in deep trouble.

    I may be wrong - perhaps very wrong - but I don't think they're stupid. Our CDC equivalent have experts that are in frequent contact with other countries like South Korea and Italy. They've been speaking about flattening the curve all week long. They know what is happening. I think authorities are silently prepping for closure. And when they're done - it will come.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:11am

    #33
    Jay Pine

    Jay Pine

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    Joined: Feb 15 2020

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    2

    Juice Media Advert

    Bravo! Worth a watch. Flatten the curve.

    Share. Stay safe. X

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:24am

    #34
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Reality sets in....

    Those audio tapes from Italian doctors are alarming. Maybe its because they are talking about such a crisis in a casual matter of fact manner. But running out of ventilators is no joke when so many people are coming in and unable to breathe on their own. That one aspect of this illness is really frightening since we are hearing again and again of cases where infected individuals suffered total respiratory failure and could only be saved via mechanical ventilation.

    So a critical shortage of hospital respirators might mean you have a death sentence.

    I would have to agree its much better to isolate than take the risk of being among the infected at the top of the bell curve since we don't know how each of us might react individually. Somewhere else on one of these threads were Italian Doctors saying there are a fair number of people in lower age groups in the serious category so its definitely not just an old persons illness. There must be something that victims have in common besides age that is causing them to succumb to this disease while others breeze through it with just a stuffy nose. And I wish I knew what but we have no way to even self assess our own risk profile without knowing what those specific variables are.

    Is it a vitamin D deficiency perhaps? Or Zinc or vitamin C? There has been enough written on vitamin deficiencies and viruses lately to make me think these could put you at higher risk than the average person. But I am not a Doctor and have no idea other than guessing at this point.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:13am

    #35
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    Taking a day off

    I'm taking a day off from the calamity after yesterdays translation marathon 😀 think i deserved it. Don't forget to rotate off the front lines guys! If we're supposed to treat this as a war remember that outside massive offensives, it's mostly defend against incursions and rotating your forces on and off the battlefield while supply lines are established.

    However there's always time for memes so i just came by to post this 😀

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:35am

    #36
    Pam-a-lu

    Pam-a-lu

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    Joined: Mar 14 2020

    Posts: 1

    3

    Many Thanks....

    I want to echo the thanks to Chris and Adam as well as all the contributors on here.  Relatives that follow Chris closely alerted us to check this out back at the beginning of February. Since then we have been in preparation mode and feel like we are way ahead of the game.

    My husband is a firefighter here in the Midwest. He has been trying to talk to his crew for the past 3-4 weeks about what is coming and they would just roll their eyes and say he was a little to obsessed with the issue. They just don’t get it and they are on the front line. They all think it is a political game and you won’t hear anything more about it in a month. OMG! Its mind blowing.

    Well, on Thursday all the area schools started shutting down. And the panic buying began - including my husbands best buddy he told to start stocking up 3 weeks ago but blew it off.  Thanks to all of you, we have not had to participate in the panic. We are waiting for the panic to die down so we can go get a few more items. Luckily, it’s nothing we need right now.

    Again a BIG THANK YOU to all on this website. Chris’ videos have been my baseline for information and voice of calm and reason. With his info, I have been able to reach a few people and wake them up. I have at least tried to do my part.

    Stay Safe!

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:56am

    #37
    Desogames

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    Oh look

    That's new.

    Dutch government link below Chris's video. Not sure how long that's been there but thats the first time i've seen it.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:58am

    #38

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

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    I Notice We Are Missing One Of Chris' Videos

    I don't see this one posted:

    Coronavirus: How To Inform Your Friends & Family Without Creating Pushback, March 12th

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogf6Hru2trE&t=1s

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:22am

    #39
    Rajkumarijay

    Rajkumarijay

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    Joined: Feb 08 2020

    Posts: 50

    1

    Good one.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:29am

    #40
    Spikenard

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    Spikenard said:

    Question: is ordinary tap water likely to contain corona virus. I‘m referring to advanced 1st world countries here. I use a filter similar to a Berkey filter and I know that these filters do not stop viruses, which is why I‘m asking about tap water. I understand also that tap water is treated recycled sewage water so I would guess that it would contain corona virus as the infection spreads. Should I stop drinking home filtered tap water and not use it to wash fruits and vegetables? Should I boil it before using it? Thanks for considering this.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:50am

    blackeagle

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 16 2013

    Posts: 247

    1

    My 2 cents about masks

    Something that hit me: Some masks as well as respirators have an exhaust valve. So, these devices filter incoming air (Good for the holder) and just let go out possibly contaminated air if the holder has the virus (Bad for nearby people).

    Looks to me that the best masks/respirators are the ones that filter in and out. Not just one way.

    We don't have masks. Just three respirators (with replacement filters) for my wife and myself. The reason is simple: masks must be frequently replaced. One of our friend, a surgery nurse, told us that one nurse can use between 40 and 50 masks a day as she have to replace them often. A mask used while taking care of one patient must be replaced before going to the next patient. Which makes sense to avoid more spread.

    So, we decided to go with half-face respirators, with goggles (less expensive than full-face respirators) instead of stocking hundreds of masks. If we get sick, then we know that we are not protecting other people.

    To follow...

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:50am

    Yoxa

    Yoxa

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    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 316

    1

    Tap water safety

    I don't know anyplace where the tap water is recycled sewage water. Sewage effluent gets used for things like watering parks and golf courses, not for people to drink.

    That said, if you are concerned about your tap water, yes, do boil it. The best way to drink boiled water is with a variety of interesting teas and a pretty teapot!

    Boiled water would be safe for washing fruits and vegetables. Also, somewhere in the threads someone wrote about how homemakers in Africa use a bit of bleach in the water they use to wash produce from the market. Worth considering.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:52am

    #43
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    1

    The Future of gold

    So here we are in the late stages of a commodity price deflation that began back in 2011 and we are abruptly seeing precipitous declines in two of the most heavily traded and speculative commodities. Those two resources are gold and crude oil which are normally among the most liquid and active contracts on the futures exchanges.

    What we are witnessing now is that the bears are back in charge while the gold and oil bulls scatter in disarray as the primary secular trend comes home to roost and reasserts itself forcefully. You could see this coming a mile away of course because commodity markets trend cyclically and are somewhat predictable but as the latest declines are coming coincident with our current stock market crash there is an added sense of pain and bitterness as commodities investments, which are typically counter-cyclical, offer little refuge from the pain.

    Unfortunately for traders, the bearish reversing trends seen in gold and crude oil markets are also being mirrored across much of the remainder of the commodity sector as oats, beans, wheat, cattle, canola, hogs (yes hogs too), silver, platinum, natural gas, gasoline, orange juice, coffee and you just name it.....are either falling in price or have been trending down for a some years already.

    The combined effects have added an aura of stress to markets that ordinarily always find a way to pivot into alternative investments but in the age of the so-called "everything bubble" there are few good alternatives available except just staying in cash or bonds and hunkering down while the various speculative asset classes sort themselves out.

    Certainly not many investors are thinking of running to make commercial real estate investments when the writing is already on the wall for brick and mortar malls subjected to the tremendous strains brought on by the recent success of online retailing. Nor does the opportunity look so great in farm land where farm incomes can be projected to keep falling across the board due to the commodity rout and ongoing trade tensions.

    Even apartments don't look so good suddenly as the global economy grinds to a halt and dismal projections of future unemployment are already being calculated. Who will be renting at the current prices and how many will still be able to afford those rents if we really tip into the much expected recession? And lets not even talk about office space, hotels, clubs and restaurants at a time when most of China is still locked down due to Corona fears and the Western world is now just waking up to facing the same reality. All of this creates a very difficult near term quandary for investors who are used to having access to a wide range of alternatives of where to put their money to work. We have entered an age of indecision and few good options.

    Does anyone really have expansion on their minds at such times when both tourism and business confidence are in sharp retreat? These combined effects are part of what is behind the recent sharp drops in gold and oil as we move into that paradigm where the only solution to low prices is even lower prices. We will just get there faster now and I expect this last part of the cycle will end with a very rapid commodity price deflation setting us up for the recovery that must follow once those key technical price lows have been hit.

    It's not that far away anymore so we can be hopeful in that regard. What happens between now and then will really depend upon the skill of the managers tasked to run their own enterprises and who manage to stay solvent through a protracted and potentially difficult economic downturn otherwise known as a recession.

    Gold meanwhile is not going to recover for some time. It lost about 200 dollars over the past five trading days and is now set up for an obligatory dead-cat bounce but don't expect it to hold that bounce for very long. To see gold's future with clarity you should be looking carefully at the chart and at much lower prices. There is exactly one open (unfilled) gap on the daily gold chart that was created between 1305 and 1312 and I can tell you with certainty we are going there now that this gold price collapse has begun.

    Crude oil meanwhile will most certainly head towards its projected 20 dollar lows no matter how preposterous it sounds. That's what the charts imply and there is hardly any point in arguing about it. There is an urgency in the marketplace now to seeing those long standing basement targets realized for once they have been hit (as the technical people know they will), then markets will reverse back up once more. And this is what we are now seeing take place.

    That crude oil and gold, as just two examples, have begun to be sold down violently to meet the conditions of their necessary price lows while some currencies like the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars are being similarly sold off and following sharp declining paths in sympathy to the resource price collapse is also predictable.

    It is all going to be over faster than you imagine. But brace yourselves. Especially if you are a gold bug....because this market is not taking any prisoners any more and it will rip your bleeding heart right out of your chest and ruin your gold relic dreams as it makes its way to the destination it must go to before this carnage can end. And now I have told you I don't want to hear any bitching afterwards when gold is selling for a 1000 bucks an ounce.

    You have been warned.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:53am

    #44
    PaulJam

    PaulJam

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    Joined: Dec 04 2016

    Posts: 89

    1

    Food distributors overwhelmed

    Overnight food deliveries did not arrive at my local food coop here in Vermont.  Food distributors cannot satisfy demand for non perishable staples.  Some shelves are empty this morning before the Likely inundation from shoppers later today.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:01am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    0

    Yes Tap Water Is Safe

    Question: is ordinary tap water likely to contain corona virus. I‘m referring to advanced 1st world countries here. I use a filter similar to a Berkey filter and I know that these filters do not stop viruses, which is why I‘m asking about tap water. I understand also that tap water is treated recycled sewage water so I would guess that it would contain corona virus as the infection spreads. Should I stop drinking home filtered tap water and not use it to wash fruits and vegetables? Should I boil it before using it? Thanks for considering this.

    Short answer, yes chlorinated tap water is safe. Long answer

    HPSC Science Paper on Covid and Drinking Water

    has to do with Covid19 being an "enveloped" virus. Its a short pdf read it if you want specifics, but drinking tap water is safe.

    Now the other junk they put into tap water, chemicals to cut down on lead from old pipes and stuff to make it flow better isn't the best thing to drink, but keep using your filter, you are fine as long as they don't do a boil order.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:14am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

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    Flaw In Your Plan

    Some masks as well as respirators have an exhaust valve. So, these devices filter incoming air (Good for the holder) and just let go out possibly contaminated air if the holder has the virus (Bad for nearby people).

    The flaw in your plan blackeagle, is half masks have a exhaust value that will let contaminated air out without filtering it too.

    I own several of the 3M half masks and if you look closely at them, they have a small rubber value that opens when you breath out. If you think you've gotten Covid19, put the half masks away for later use. You'' need them to guard against reinfection if you survive.

    BTW, not sure of your filters but try finding some of the "pancake" filters like these:

    They are cheaper than the oblong can filters and for this virus just as effective as P100 filters. This from a rep at 3M. You should be able to still find these on Amazon.

    You can also disinfect them with either an isopropyl alcohol or hydrogen peroxide bath (30 minutes), then water rinse followed by air dry.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:29am

    #47
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    1

    Flights to Europe are banned but going to the UK is still open

    So naturally I have to ask why flights to England have not been banned given that the method of dealing with Covid19 in England is to just let it run through the population in order to build herd immunity. Meanwhile over in Europe where actual steps are being taken to slow infection rates, those countries cannot have flights to the US.

    Unless our defacto domestic solution to the virus is exactly the same as England's.

    Ooohh, now I get it. LOL

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:38am

    #48
    ddelong

    ddelong

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    Joined: Jan 20 2015

    Posts: 35

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    Saturday Morning Store Runs - Metro Detroit

    Saturday morning is when I make my usual store runs, usually 7-9 in the morning.  Went out today to do normal grocery shopping and as always add to the pantry. My smaller grocery store is normally dead usually 5 people 10 tops.  Today there were 50 plus cars in the lot, the store was busy and most fruits were picked over and meats and eggs were 75% gone.  I then started to the farm BOL location to put final touches on it for the extended family.  Like notes on everything and reminders of what to do with anything they bring in to the farmhouse.  So  stopped on the way at the rural Walmart to top off some insulin preps for the farm, that Walmart was busier than usual but seemed to be decently stocked.

     

    ALSO

     

    I now have it through two trusted sources that have DC connections that a national quarantine or lockdown is being heavily considered.  Possibly 48-72 hours notice to get where the heck you need to get and a 7-21 day lockdown quarantine.

     

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:39am

    #49

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2081

    2

    Toilet paper

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:54am

    #50

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2081

    0

    Back on 11/15/19 the CDC posted a job notice for quarantine advisors...

    https://jobs.cdc.gov/job/dallas/public-health-advisor-quarantine-program/250/14136286

    Public Health Advisor (Quarantine Program)
    Location Dallas, Texas, El Paso, Texas, Houston, Texas, Seattle, Washington, Anchorage, Alaska, Los Angeles, California, San Diego, California, San Francisco, California, Miami, Florida, Atlanta, Georgia, Honolulu, Hawaii, Chicago, Illinois, Boston, Massachusetts, Detroit, Michigan, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Newark, New Jersey, New York, New York, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, San JuanDepartment: Department of Health And Human ServicesAgency: Centers for Disease Control and PreventionJob Announcement Number: HHS-CDC-D3-20-10640010SALARY RANGE: $51440.0 to $93077.0/Per YearOPEN PERIOD: 2019-11-15 to 2020-05-15SERIES & GRADE: GS--9/11

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:55am

    Lemonyellowschwin

    Lemonyellowschwin

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 22 2008

    Posts: 218

    2

    Gold: Enlighten Us Further Still Please?

    What will happen to gold when the Fed and every other central back print a few trillion dollars/euros/yen etc. to bail out the entire world economy and then the economy reaches its nadir and begins to recover with the passing of this emergency?

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:59am

    #52
    JonathanLabman

    JonathanLabman

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    Joined: Jul 09 2010

    Posts: 3

    0

    Baffling

    Thanks to Chris and Adam for superb coverage of this Sars-Cov2 situation.  I'm grateful to have listened to you a month ago and got masks, gloves, booties, and sanitizing wipes and betadyne (plus H2O2 in the gallon size) when things were available and there wasn't price gouging yet.  Also because, thanks to PeakProsperity.com, I've been preparing for years and now have a garden, chickens, etc.  In Pennsylvania, the governor just shut schools for two weeks.  I just shut down all of my in-person groups (I'm a therapist) and am offering all individual and group work via videoconferencing.  Individuals can also come in and sit more than 6' from me.  As the writers above, we are seeing vegetable shortages and crowded stores, though not panic (as of yesterday when my spouse did the shopping).  I'm staying home this weekend but, will go to the office (since it's an office of 1) as long as I'm well.  If there's actually a national quarantine as someone above suggests, again thanks to PeakProsperity.com, we're all set.  What's baffling to me is why it took our governments so long to take this action?  They've had the same information, I'm guessing that Dr. Martenson did, yet have done nothing until yesterday.  I guess it takes the leaders being directly exposed to the virus for the people to get help.  Baffling.....  Thanks from us,  Jonathan

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:04am

    #53

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2081

    0

    Flattening the curve won’t work. Containment is necessary. STFH.

    https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:09am

    mweight01

    mweight01

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    Joined: Mar 29 2017

    Posts: 10

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    Let Me Just Say This

    Absolutely crucial advice - should be posted over and over again in all caps.  Now's the time to "stay off the skyline" as we used to say in the Marines -  the willfully uninformed are unleashed and in panic mode right now, so stay out of the way!

    I'm going to the beach.

    Cheers,

    Mike

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:12am

    Janie-em

    Janie-em

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    Joined: Mar 05 2020

    Posts: 43

    0

    Classic Community Spreader too

    Thanks for your reply Cicerone. Those were exactly my symptoms the first week I was sick. I wasn't sure I had it, because, back then the news said high fever and I had only a mild fever, and it seemed to come and go. I hope you and your wife recover from what you have quickly.

    Yes, testing's a JOKE. The reason I did tele-medicine twice was to avoid going in to the urgent care, if I had the virus. They really need stand alone test check points like South Korea has.

    Instead we are left to wonder and to wander...about spreading away. I put on a mask and stay far away from others when I'm out, just in case. I get the odd looks, but who cares, very soon they'll all understand.

    Another thing to note, I called my primary physician's office to try to get my visit record corrected and ask them what to do. The nurse said, they didn't agree with the conclusion of the P.A. at the triage, but he'd already "made the call" not to test and they wouldn't do anything further and it wasn't up to them to ask me to self isolate. I predict this virus is going to over run my particular medical provider, esp that hospital and it will fail. Jonas Salk save us!

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:15am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    Request to the board

    When you post about local conditions or anecdotes, please state where you are.  Country, state, etc.  Thanks.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:17am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    0

    Try to keep money in pespective

    Well Lemonyellow, just ask yourself what happened so far after multiple QE's, trillions in Central Bank interventions, untold amounts of money in overnight repos, the Japanese CB buying almost all the bond market followed by most of that nations ETF's and you know the rest. Maybe you can answer your own question. It has not done much for gold or miners or oil so far has it?

    Then you might be able to explain how after all those interventions that the price of oil still cracked below 30 dollars on March 9th which is less than half its price of a few months earlier while gold just got its brains splattered on the pavement after falling off a high-rise roof and there is more splattering to come.

    Look, I know you bugs can't do math and I don't want to lecture but the US alone is a 20 trillion dollar economy and China's is normally equal to that. Look at the size of the economy of the G20 and you should realize that a few trillion here and there is really just nudges in a certain direction. It's not going to cause hyperinflation and it certainly has not even caused traditional inflation to break out yet.

    I know you guys hate to hear this. But we are not even in a bull market for gold yet. The bear market has still got to finish playing out. Everything has a season and its going to play out just like always. On that note, the people who have been predicting high inflation and hyperinflation are starting to look pretty foolish at a time when the world economy is literally deflating in front of our eyes. It's going down so fast there is not even enough money to reinflate it because the core problem is excessive debt and credit. And debt problems are by their definition deflationary when we arrive at the conclusion where you either pay up, default or go broke.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:53am

    #58
    Torii

    Torii

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    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 35

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    Red Line / Thank You

    Two people in Forsyth County, where I live, have tested positive after going on an international cruise where other passengers were infected, bringing NC’s total to at least 12. Our local public health director will not reveal where the couple travelled, nor how long they have been home. I also have it from a reliable source that a patient with the virus is being treated in the ICU of a local hospital.

    So that’s my red line.

    https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/ncdhhs-announces-three-additional-cases-covid-19-north-carolina

    I chose the screen name Torii in honor of the vermillion torii (鳥居) gate at Heian Shrine in Kyoto, my favorite city. Towering 80 feet above the street, it signifies a pilgrim’s departure from the mundane world and entrance into sacred space. Similarly, I am the gatekeeper of my home’s sacred space and the guardian of my family’s wellbeing. All my strength and will now focus on protecting them from this contagion. We are stronger in the shelter of each other. Thank you, PP community, for sharing your ideas to help me prepare.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 9:11am

    blackeagle

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 16 2013

    Posts: 247

    0

    half-mask

    David,

    My bad English... (Nous pouvons discuter en Français; ce sera plus facile et rapide pour moi). In writing "respirator" I meant half face and full face. So, yes, we agree and I mentioned that my half mask does not protect others from myself.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 9:13am

    #60

    blackeagle

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 16 2013

    Posts: 247

    0

    Toilet paper for a smile

    I french comedian I like very much (Coluche) said this:

    What is the most important thing in the world: Money or the butt?

    Answer: The butt. Everyone has a butt... Few have money.

    This may explain the razzia of TP.  😉

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 9:39am

    #61
    phoenixl

    phoenixl

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    Joined: Nov 01 2015

    Posts: 24

    0

    new COVID-19 article from National Geographic on comorbidities

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/these-underlying-conditions-make-coronavirus-more-severe-and-they-are-surprisingly-common/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20200313&rid=653B6DBE6919555565024EE5AA9187DF

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 9:46am

    #62
    Dontknownothin

    Dontknownothin

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    Joined: Mar 14 2020

    Posts: 21

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    Dontknownothin said:

    To me the real question before things go Boom! everywhere, is which style of health care is going to be the most resilient against this threat?

    Socialized medicine in Europe has made the populations highly dependent on the government for even the most basic medical care. With their systems being overrun with patients, even non-coronavirus malladies will soon turn into coronavirus cases once they step foot in the ER. Peoples conditioning is to seek medical aid for everything and thus even the paranoid uninfected will use up hospital resources (which are in shorter supply because of tighter budget constraints) and exacrebate the issue.

     

    In Americas healthcare, the costs of treatment and the proportion of our economy dedicated to healthcare makes a larger portion of the population more medically qualified and thus more likely to provide self care and limit the systemic issues being seen in Italy. While at the same time, the mentality of medical cost avoidance will prevent many people from seeking medical care and potentially continuing the spread of the virus...

     

    I guess time will tell which style is more effective and will be political fodder for a generation.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 10:12am

    #63
    Dontknownothin

    Dontknownothin

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 14 2020

    Posts: 21

    2

    Seasonal Lull appears to be a myth

    Given the community spread of the virus through areas that are equatorial or at least marginally warmer than regions like mine in Seattle. I'm afraid to tell people that the idea of a seasonal lull like the "flu season" is a myth.

    The parameters for when it is most likely to spread are just the environmental factors that mitigate the risk, but the virus travelling from one 98.6 degree host to another 98.6 degree host is going to be as likely once beach weather returns for the one day in August here, as it will be in the rainy fall.

    The real problem is social behaviors. People are still cramming into elevators and breathing directly into each others' eyeballs here, so the notion of containment without a literal quarantine (40 days of isolation) is likely to keep this bug festering in the background even as the global community is starting to point fingers and without necessary resources that will exacerbate this problem.

    I am not confident this virus will simply 'go away' as everyone seems to so unhelpfully claim. I think we are in it for the long haul.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 10:28am

    Rajkumarijay

    Rajkumarijay

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    Joined: Feb 08 2020

    Posts: 50

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    Yikes.

    Thanks for the article Phoenix1. Seeing as I am 61, have had asthma for 59 years and have a congenital right bundle branch block, basically I guess I am screwed. So do I stay home and lose my job so that if by some miracle I survive this, I can’t support myself or take my chances and go in to work. I guess a lot to think about this weekend. There are probably loads of people in the same boat. If only the bosses at work were PP members and understood what was going on I could convince them to allow me to work from home. My immediate boss says he grew up on a farm so he has a super strong immune system. When I ask him, well what about the rest of us?, he responds with a joke about being in his cone of immunity when I was meeting with him in his office. So hard to get people to take this seriously.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 10:40am

    #65

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2187

    2

    dropping the R0

    If the corona virus follows the behavior of H1N1, increased temperature and humidity will cause the droplets to fall out rapidly instead of spreading for large distances.  This should drop the R0 for this virus in those areas substantially.  If you combine this with widespread mask wearing, and frequent hand washing, that will drop R0 even more.

    It is my belief this very condition is in evidence in various tropical Asian countries which, by the numbers, should be absolutely overrun with cases, but are not.

    The virus itself won't vanish, but under these conditions, this collection of factors will drop the R0 locally below 1, mostly, local transmission will fall off, and said locations will see the vast majority of infections imported from colder areas.

    Just my best guess.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 10:49am

    #66
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    Visualizing the spread of Covid-19

    This article has some very interesting and well-done timeline with graphic depictions of the spread of Covid-19 over the past month.

    Visualizing the spread of the coronavirus

    "In less than a month, so many people have fallen ill from the coronavirus that they could fill concert halls and ballparks."

    This soothing not-as-bad-as paragraph preceded a graphic of exponential "hockey-stick" rise in US reported, confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths.

    "While the rapid rise in infections shows this virus' remarkable capacity to spread, it's important to note that the reported number of victims remains relatively low and the disease appears less deadly than SARS and other respiratory viruses."

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/02/18/coronavirus-visualizing-number-confirmed-cases/4759477002/

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 10:59am

    ddelong

    ddelong

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 20 2015

    Posts: 35

    2

    Re: Yikes

    I'm in the same boat although younger but a T1 diabetic.  We had a meeting yesterday with management and the outcome was to wipe down the door handles more often and still allow non-essential visits to the site, even though every company scheduled to come to the site have themselves canceled.  I called the CEO myself today to talk to him, no use, business as usual on Monday with door handle wiping.  I'm the EHS site leader and he won't listen, it doesn't matter what I put in front of him.  I think his CEO/PhD mind won't accept any one else's opinion of what is going on.  I think it rather obtuse IMO

    I've lost faith in him and the company as a result, I have some decisions as well to make this weekend.  I'm upset for myself but also for the nearly 12 employees in our 42 person company that are at increased risk for COVID-19.  He made a decision based on sustaining cash flow at the risk of a lot of the human resources, many of whom are subject matter experts, that helped put this company together and get it where it is today.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 11:09am

    #68

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2436

    1

    thc0655, please post the graphs and summarize

    This is really important.   Flattening the curve is still not nearly enough to keep the healthcare system from overload.

    https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

    (on my way to work and no time to summarize and put up pictures)

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 11:22am

    #69
    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2020

    Posts: 86

    1

    Lack of Finances to prep

    Eastern Shore of Maryland.

    A friend has 25 employees.  Warehouse type business with food prep.  Employees were surveyed --No prep from any.  They bought a 2 week supply of food for each of them. They gave each employee the groceries as Maryland announced closing schools for 2 weeks.

    We hear that in our area 65% of children at public schools get supplemental meals at school- Couldn't run down those stats.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 11:23am

    #70
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 728

    3

    No F'ing way..!

    UK is going to pay a 10k bonus to healthcare workers to get infected.. to impart immunity now..?   but we dont know that does anything but kill you..  _ are they nuts?

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 11:52am

    #71

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    Sobering View of the Curve Ahead

    This is really important.   Flattening the curve is still not nearly enough to keep the healthcare system from overload.

    https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

    (on my way to work and no time to summarize and put up pictures)

    Here it is sand puppy and its scary as $h!t

    Expect a national lockdown by the end of the month.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 11:58am

    Allan Johnson

    Allan Johnson

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 2

    2

    Add this to your list!

    Electrical power outages. Power plant workers get sick too.

    If we have a hurricane this summer, it will take forever to repair the electrical power lines. Linemen get sick too.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:18pm

    #73

    Bytesmiths

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 28 2008

    Posts: 144

    0

    I've been self-isolating for years! I'm a farmer! :-)

    By no means to I want to sound glib, but those of us with a history of "prepping" are watching this all unfold with a touch of schadenfreude.

    We have at least year's worth of food that is shelf-stable, and an excess that we can sell. (Today, we're busy pickling eggs and making cheese.)

    Our major source of income, a regionally-famous Saturday Market, is likely to be shut down — BC Health has ordered the cancellation of all events with over 250 attendees — but people still need to eat, and many of them find the notion of a farm stand more attractive that being exposed to lots of people in a supermarket.

    We've got three big bottles of bleach, and will disinfect the farm stand after each visitor. We'll let their money sit for 24 hours. We'll store change above the wood stove, since COVID-19 seems to be heat-sensitive. We've got 200 litres of our homemade pear cider vinegar for disinfecting after the bleach runs out. (It's more valuable for preserving food, though!) But more importantly, I'm preparing signs to notify farm stand visitors of our disinfection procedures.

    Our biggest expense is mortgage and hydro (electricity). I'm hoping that, should things get really tight, governments will declare moratoria on payments for essential services, as I believe Denmark has.

    The first thing we might run out of is probably propane for our kitchen stove. We can cook on the wood stove if we have to. Coincidentally, we just filled the tanks on our two vehicles, and what little we drive, that's normally a two-month supply — with greater self-isolation, perhaps six months!

    If everybody (government, citizens, banks, industry) agrees to take a bit of a haircut, that means no one has to have their head shaved. I will voluntarily forego the meagre interest I am paid for my savings if the banks will do the same for mortgages! (Fat chance!)

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:21pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 462

    0

    Baby Boom? (reply to ao)

    I've never been happier to have gotten my vasectomy last fall.

    SMILE... VIVA -- Sager

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:22pm

    #75

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    2

    A Go-To Source

    Had one of the grown kids call and say “Mom, what else should I be doing”?  Music to my ears😎

    Thanks Chris and Adam - Old Mom - got “people”!

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:29pm

    #76
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

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    Solving the problem of limits to growth?

    Nairobi asks if the UK is nuts. I haven't heard discussion (I may have missed it) as to whether some countries might think this virus is a solution to overpopulation. Not wanting to be paranoid, but it does look like a way to clear out older more dependent and medically expensive people, and leaving the country "cleansed" so to speak. Am I nuts?

    It would explain the sluggishness in testing of most of the countries with an environmental conscience. Somehow China (+ Singapore, HK, SK), Russia, and small countries who until recently were intent on improving their population's economic situation are the ones to close down fast.

    Just putting it out there. The exponential function and the fact that it meant that we were inevitably reaching limits to growth is what started the Crash Course. I'm sure what is obvious to Chris actually didn't escape our leadership.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:38pm

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 261

    2

    Lockdown being considered?

    I now have it through two trusted sources that have DC connections that a national quarantine or lockdown is being heavily considered.  Possibly 48-72 hours notice to get where the heck you need to get and a 7-21 day lockdown quarantine.

    We got word mid-morning of the same, by way of a military connection.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:47pm

    Dontknownothin

    Dontknownothin

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    Joined: Mar 14 2020

    Posts: 21

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    Dontknownothin said:

    I feel like that article is dangerously misrepresenting the virus and continuing to downplay the severity by making comparisons to less systemically dangerous illnesses. I suspect to try and save face if it all blows over so they don't have to apologize for stoking fear, but still, irresponsible and dangerous.

    Not trying to pick on you Sparky1, I appreciate you sharing that. It's actually a decent representation, just the last line "SARS was worse" really got stuck in my craw.

    A friend of mine works as an ICU nurse and he was also downplaying this, "ebola, AIDS, hepatitis are all worse." "I'm not worried." "Corona-what? LOL"... That was a couple weeks ago. Now he has three patients with COVID 19 in his ICU. He just went grocery shopping this morning to stock up. The concern is spreading, but the mainstream media is doing a severe dis-service to the country by downplaying it.

    A co-worker of mine was trying to assuage the concerns of a few of the ladies who are getting stressed out about the virus. He is continuing to spread the misinformation of "the flu is worse". This got me pretty heated because it is an abject denial of the reality. Fortunately these girls have stocked up a little bit per my advice. Bad advice for the sake of sparing someones feelings NOW is dooming them to suffer a worse fate later. I was absolutely appalled. The media is doing no one any favors, and the soft ball preppers aren't helping either. Innoculate people against the fear by telling them what you know. They deserve the truth.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:49pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1206

    1

    Sager, LOLOLOLOLOLOL

    Thank you for the laugh.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:49pm

    chewbacca

    chewbacca

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 10 2020

    Posts: 15

    0

    TB and HIV

    That virus has parts of tb and HIV. Maybe you recover, but what do those bits floating around in your body do? Kill you in 18 months from a scratch? We have no idea how infection will play out. Best to not get sick at all!

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:50pm

    #81

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 462

    4

    Report in from Maui

    The rank and file (sheeple) have wokened, and it ain't pretty.  Runs are occurring on TP and sanitizer and the other I'm Panicking But Don't Know What I'm Doing consumer goods (spam, rice, bottled water, chips, salsa (let's survive the Nachocalypse!).

    We have a couple last few items ordered but not arrived (2 O2 concentrators, some mycological supplements) but overall when I go to Costco today I'll be buying day-to-day groceries (eggs, smoothie ingredients, matcha tea powder) and not lockdown supplies.

    My son can feel that something's up (age 3).  He's needing lots of extra hugs.  My son's mother (we coparent very amicably) and I touched base today about our bug-out plan should lockdown get pre-announced (as they did in Spain today -- gave everybody a day and a half notice...we only need about 4 hours).  She and I live in separate towns (she has overnight custody of son, although he comes to work with me six days a week) about 20 mins apart.  Our bugout location is with my sweetheart's family in a rural area on the North Shore.  We're on full red alert.  I expect lockdown by end of the coming week (or next weekend it'll be announced to take effect the following Monday 3/23).

    Having said that, they randomly tested 37 people in Honolulu and got 0 positives (so they say).  So maybe Hawai'i is lagging way behind -- warmer and more humid here, higher UV levels due to proximity to equator -- all that may slow the virus way down.  If there's really only a couple cases here, we might have a delay on lockdown too (barring a Federal order of nationwide effect).

    People here are pretty mellow about it, even when they're in panic mode.  It's a Hawai'i thing, I think.  But there are still people scoffing at the notion that there's anything momentous afoot.  >shrug<  As the saying goes, that's not my circus, and those are not my clowns...

    In the old days, Hawaiian life was organized around the ahupua'a system -- each island was divided up into pie-shaped pieces from the highest spot down to the shore.  Each pie piece was a separate economic/political entity.  This sort of division ensured each parcel had a piece of every sort of ecological niche, from ocean to jungle to upcountry -- and therefore a variety of the bounty the land has to offer.  People near shore would trade coconuts and fish uphill to the people in the middle, who had fruit and veggies (taro etc.) and the people up top would trade beef, pig, deer, and upcountry produce downhill for the goods those folks had.  If we get our wish and time to bugout to the North Shore, we'll be in the middle, sort of.  Farming.  Trading avos and garden veggies and fruit uphill for meat and downhill for fish.

    I relate this so as to get you to consider what sorts of alternate economic arrangements may shortly arise, in the absence of the just in time economy, and what useful role you might play or niche you might fill.  And to consider -- if you're not able to stockpile tuna and beans and other foodstuffs -- what other necessaries people might be ignoring and leaving on the shelves but will have a need for in 3 or 4 weeks?  Which you could trade for food or whatever...

    The old way of BAU is shaking itself to pieces, with some help form COVID-19.  I'm mostly hoping to stay out of the way of falling debris and keep a keen eye for opportunities to build something new.

    It all comes back to community, eventually.  Be diligent in cultivating connections with the people around you, to the extent it's at all possible.  We're only getting through this together.  Lone wolves perish, and they die lonely.  The pack endures.

    May fortune attend us all!  Prepare to be surprised!  Don't forget to play, and dance, and laugh.

    VIVA -- Sager

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:52pm

    Dontknownothin

    Dontknownothin

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    Joined: Mar 14 2020

    Posts: 21

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    Dontknownothin said:

    ...That is not so crazy that it won't happen. Conspiracy theory is the best source of "how to" ideas a government can find. Given enough time and technology, they find a way to make conspiracy a reality. Science fiction becomes science fact... if it's possible.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:52pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 462

    0

    Mryto:

    "Nairobi asks if the UK is nuts. I haven’t heard discussion (I may have missed it) as to whether some countries might think this virus is a solution to overpopulation. Not wanting to be paranoid, but it does look like a way to clear out older more dependent and medically expensive people, and leaving the country “cleansed” so to speak. Am I nuts?"

    had just this thought this week.  They're calculating their SS savings on a spreadsheet somewhere.  "If 10 million die, we save X over the next 10 years!"

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 12:55pm

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 261

    0

    Thinning the Herd?

    It's an idea that's been around quite a while, now.
    I doubt it. The problem with such a "cunning plan" is that the elite are not spared exposure to it.
    Were I a cunning self-styled planetary ruler I'd make sure whatever my plans for mayhem, they wouldn't accidentally land on my head.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:06pm

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 122

    2

    Warned about owning Gold

    Lets see, the price is just about where it was when this virus popped up on the world's radar. Gold has served as safe haven status for millennias. Central banks all around the world have been buyers for years and are going to print money like mad. I'm thinking about buying the dip.
    You have been warned

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:10pm

    #86

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 122

    0

    Made a new hierarchy of needs Pyramid for the Pandemic

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:11pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    LMAO

    As the saying goes, that’s not my circus, and those are not my clowns…

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:20pm

    #88
    yogmonster

    yogmonster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 01 2013

    Posts: 48

    0

    Thumbs up! Montana Native

    👍

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:36pm

    chewbacca

    chewbacca

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 10 2020

    Posts: 15

    0

    quick self diagnosis check

    This came from research in Spain. To check for lung fibrosis, a symptom that covid19 causes but doesn't appear outwardly until later: breath in deeply and hold for 10-15 seconds. If you can hold without coughing, you don't need hospitalization. If you can't, time to see the doctor.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 1:49pm

    #90

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    0

    Holding Your Breath

    https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-water-breath-test-bad-advice/

    Probably untrue chewie.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 2:02pm

    #91
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 728

    0

    thinning the herd

    Yes i think we are over-populated - and need to thin the herd.  But how to thin right people?   I know bill gates wants to thin the herd with vaccines.   You hear him state over and over again - we need to get the population down - and do it with vaccines.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 2:25pm

    #92
    peakoilwelder

    peakoilwelder

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 04 2011

    Posts: 13

    2

    Meanwhile, in the oilpatch...

    Up here in the alberta oilfield, things are looking...confused. Just returned for my shift at undisclosed Oilfield fix broken stuff location.

    I drive, no airplanes for me. Mandatory Covid-19 health check, which consisted of a short questionaire, and a temperature check. Fortunately this rigorous inspection allayed my fears, and I am in top shape! Sarcasm aside, at least they are doing something. I witnessed first-hand some parking lot ugliness at my local costco earlier this week, so the stress is there. The economic impact of this virus will be a sledgehammer here in Alberta, I believe, but, we've got gotten good at getting back up. This time, people will die, so it's not the same as '08 and '15. It is certainly not hopeless, however, and if we hang together and give each other the dignity and respect we deserve, it will be a time unity.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 2:37pm

    #93
    chloecasey

    chloecasey

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    Freezing

    Has anyone run across any scientific studies as to whether freezing kills the virus?  I assume it either kills it or keeps it alive indefinitely.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 3:09pm

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    tons of studies on freezing

    Freezing has no effect on viruses/  does not deactivate them.. It preserves them indefinitely.    Pretty my how they do it at the bioweapon and bsl 4 labs..   just freeze and study..

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 3:41pm

    #95
    42

    42

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    Joined: Feb 27 2020

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    1

    42 said:

    Hi everyone. I am new to PP and finding it useful.

    Thanks to you I missed the mad rush on the shops and feel fairly prepared.

    Can someone please link me to the video where Chris goes thought the "adjustment reaction" as I cannot seem to find it.

    Thanks

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 3:41pm

    #96

    blackeagle

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 16 2013

    Posts: 247

    3

    Sanitary emergency state

    Quebec declared a sanitary emergency state this afternoon.

    - no more casual visits to relatives/friends in hospitals

    - no more visits to people in elder's residences (public and private)

    - people 70+ stay home

    - government has now power to declare any measure it deem necessary (example: purchase stuff it needs without public bidding process)

    - all health fees related to the COVID-19 will be assumed by the RAMQ (Quebec's health insurance agency).

    - all schools are closed (from kinder garden to universities). No end date is given.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 3:41pm

    Susan7

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    need to Thinthe Herd?

    NordicJack— You go first.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:00pm

    #98
    MQ

    MQ

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    printed equipment?

    I found this on Dr. John Campbell's you tube site. I don't know much about 3-D printing, but there should be those on this site who do.

     

    Jürgen Rojahn
    I have a favor to ask, that might save a lot of lives. You've done an amazing job, analyzing, informing and warning about this pandemic and you will directly be responsible for saving a lot of lives with the work you are doing. I've been very focused on these events for the last two months, public and independent sources, doing the math and I came to similar conclusions. I live in Berlin and if I look at the capacity of medical facilities in Germany - even with the measures the state has taken up till now - I estimate that they will be saturated/overwhelmed at the beginning of April at the latest. This will mean a sharp rise in the death rate. One of the problems is that there isn't enough medical equipment available. If this happens in Germany, it will happen in most countries. It's happening in Italy. They cannot be produced quickly enough to reach the demand. You are in a unique position to solve this: You have a lot of nerdy early adopters that listen to you. Some are hospital workers, some are computer scientists (e.g. me) and all sorts of highly motivated highly qualified minds trying to get ahead of this circumstance. My suggestion is this: Make an open call to initiate an open-source project (or more) that analyzes the equipment and processes needed to save the hard cases but only requires means that are accessible to everyone. We don't need a respirator made of stainless steel, it can be made of 3D printed parts that a lot of individuals and companies will be able to produce very quickly. We don't need medical personnel, we need an instruction set for the 8 of 10 cases that have mild symptoms to save those 2 of 10 that are at risk to die. My hope is that if you talk about this in-depth on one of your broadcasts, there will be enough people that see the value in it, are qualified technically and will be able to implement this quickly. One crucial thing you will have to address is the psychological risk of putting our egos before the cause. Some people like playing the hero in situations like these, but good insight and methods will have to be the priority. Some people that are more apt, to solve this problem, are very insecure. I think it would be wise to mention that "human resources" and acting selfless is a major part of making this work. Hopefully, more than one project will emerge and hopefully, some of them will make a difference. Every 0,1% we can reduce the death rates literally represents tens of millions of people worldwide. We still live in a relatively centralized organizational structure within companies, organizations, and society. This is very slow. It's time to parallelize and speed it up! Jürgen Rojahn ANYONE: It doesn't really matter how this gets spread, it just needs to reach the right people, so feel free to copy/paste this and spread the possibility. Viral vs. virus

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:02pm

    chloecasey

    chloecasey

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    Freezing for Study

    That freezing for biolabs is done very quickly to extremely low levels using liquid nitrogen, etc.  I know that viruses and bull semen are two totally different things, but semen is easily destroyed if it is not kept at very low temps and then reheated in a very specific way. I know that viruses are not a complete cell so I assumed that it wasn't as fragile but I was hoping it was.  🙂

    P.S. I am NOT trying to start up the whole bull semen thread again!!!  😉

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:12pm

    greendoc

    greendoc

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    Theory: Ibuprofen not recommended, may increase infection susceptibility

    Let me start by saying this is a medical hypothesis, NOT proven fact.

    However, it makes biochemical sense and is postulated by three well published University professors. I should also say ARBs have been proposed as theoretically being a treatment for Covid by at least one other person (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32129518 ), so clearly researchers are doing science: coming up with hypothesis which need to be tested.  That does not help us in the moment however and I have seen no research out of China that mentions any use of ARBs for Covid-19 (and I have been looking).

    It does feel worthwhile to post this, as it may help in some cases.

    As a naturopathic physician, we routinely do not recommend suppressing a moderate fever (below 102 or 103’F) in a well hydrated, non compromised person.  Fever is a normal healthy response to fight infection.  Of course, there is time for suppression when fever is to high, too prolonged, etc and using hydrotherapy, homeopathy and herbs would be our preferred course of action, not ibuprofen.

    But this following hypothesis is a red flag for suppressing Covid fever with ibuprofen, especially in patients concurrently taking

    1. ARBs (drugs end in -sartan.  Azilsartan (Edarbi); candesartan (Atacand), valsartan (Diovan); losartan (Cozaar); olmesartan (Benicar). ARB stands for AT1R blockers and they represent a major class of antihypertensive medications.

    2. ACE-inhibitors (ACE inhibitors end with -pril: benazepril (Lotensin, Lotensin Hct); captopril (Capoten); enalapril (Vasotec); fosinopril (Monopril); lisinopril (Prinivil, Zestril).

    3. Thiazolidinediones (Avandia (rosliglitazone) and Actos (pioglitazone))

    This article suggests ibuprofen as well as ARBs and ACE inhibitors may increase morbidity from Covid-19 due to their ability to upregulate  (increase expression/concentration) of ACE2.  https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf

    These data suggest that ACE2 expression is increased in diabetes and treatment with ACE inhibitors and ARBs increases ACE2 expression. ACE2 can also be increased by thiazolidinediones and ibuprofen. Consequently, the increased expression of ACE2 would facilitate infection with COVID-19. We therefore hypothesise that diabetes and hypertension treatment with ACE2-stimulating drugs increases the risk of developing severe and fatal COVID-19.

    They go on to say, "Based on a PubMed search on Feb 28, 2020, we did not find any evidence to suggest that antihypertensive calcium channel blockers increased ACE2 expression or activity, therefore these could be a suitable alternative treatment in these patients”.

    Just passing on information, you must be the final judge.

     

    Claire

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:23pm

    pinecarr

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    "Critical Knowledge: The Adjustment Reaction"

    Hi 42!  Welcome to PP.  Chris's discussion on the Adjustment Reaction was in his March 12th update, "Coronavirus: How To Inform Your Friends & Family Without Creating Pushback".  I see it posted on Youtube, but not on PeakProsperity.com yet.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:36pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

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    chloecasey

    Scientists got the 1918 virus by digging up a woman in Alaska that was buried in the permafrost.  They can now study the virus and use it for ?

    No freezing does’t kill it.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:38pm

    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

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    Video How Serious is the Corona virus (Shortages, airborne virus, high infectivity)

    You Tube ~15.5 minutes
    How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan
    Dr. Osterholm, PhD, MPH is the author of the 2017 book, Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, in which he not only details the most pressing infectious disease threats of our day but lays out a nine-point strategy on how to address them, with preventing a global flu pandemic at the top of the list.

    In the interview, he discusses the seriousness of coronaviruses, supply chain shortages, etc. He answers why people are saying the young don't get it--They do, but not have symptoms. - He uses the example of hepatitis- daycare workers are sick, parents are sick- kids are fine.  But when children are tested, they are infectious.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3iLuJ0M7PXWmONifCFkKEsrxQmnCcc3SvJakyDifj3YP9B9qVrl_uqtz8&app=desktop

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:44pm

    nordicjack

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    thinning herd - susan, yes I will

    If it would make a better world for my children - we have a disaster now headed nowhere.  I said it many times - I would sacrifice myself in a heart beat to make the world a decent place for others ... especially for my children.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 4:45pm

    MQ

    MQ

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    Joined: Oct 13 2011

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    1

    The frog in the pond story.

    This is for the visual learners among us (not really us, of course. I actually mean Them).

    Once there was a frog who lived in a pond. For a long time, he was happy in his froggy solitude. But, as time went on, he grew lonely. One day a bad actor, who secretly loved to eat frog legs, came along and asked if he would like some froggy friends to share his pond. "Oh, yes!", said the frog.  The bad, nasty guy told him that friends could only be made slowly. But, if he liked, the first day, he could have a companion. The second day, they each could have another friend, making four frogs. The next day, each of them could have a BFF. Now there were eight frogs. Not quite enough for a good party, so the rotten guy asked the frog is he could just double the number every day. "Oh, my, yes! Party on!"

    And so it went. The pond was the home of many happy frogs. But, all good times must end, we know. Soon, things were a bit crowded. Flies were getting scarce and there was only room for slow dancing. But the pond was still only just half full, and the frogs were sure they would always have room to dance and cavort the nights away. But, the next day--the pond was full.  End of pond, end of frogs.

    And, so, exponential growth was discovered.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:13pm

    Torii

    Torii

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    Joined: Mar 03 2020

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    NC Hockey Stick

    North Carolina now has 23/24 (NCDHHS/Johns Hopkins) positive cases, all diagnosed since 3 March. I drew a quick graph on the back of an envelope, based on the dates state authorities announced each case, and revealed the classic hockey stick of a log progression. All K-12 schools are closed for at least two weeks.

    Boom!

    https://www.ncdhhs.gov/news/press-releases/governor-cooper-issues-executive-order-closing-k-12-public-schools-and-banning

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:13pm

    razorboy62

    razorboy62

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    Joined: Feb 14 2020

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    NO Shortages of Masks or Testing Equipment !

    I cannot believe that there is ANY shortage of N95 masks, coronavirus testing kits, etc. I actually DO have access to all kinds of  Chinese made 3M N95 masks ( yes, muchWAS, and still IS made in China) and Coronavirus testing kits. I actually called various State Health Departments and large hospitals in Washington, NY, etc. I tried to explain that I really DO have connections for these things and maybe I can help if there is a need.

    I got met with these 3 responses: assurances that they had suppliers that they currently worked with and had plenty of stock,  indifference, or disdain ( actually downright rudeness) for suggesting that I could get the supplies if they were having trouble. So apparently all this talk of shortages is CRAP !  I don't mean this against the site, I love this site. I just think what is being portrayed in the media and by officials is false - at least in my observation.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:26pm

    Helen Highwater

    Helen Highwater

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    mask shortages

    There are no N95 masks anywhere within a 50-mile radius of where I live.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:27pm

    karen is a farmer

    karen is a farmer

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    Joined: Feb 24 2020

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    3

    First Covid death in my county

    Things are getting real! I am waiting to get the call as to whether  I return to work on Monday.  I work as a speech language pathologist with home based & school based young children.  Maintaining a safe distance from these young ones is difficult! So I am very concerned if I have to return this coming week. On the bright side, I had 3 people tell me I was “right” & I gained credibility with them thanks to this site!  And I met with my neighbor who grows food on his farm & we are both expanding food production this year but in complimentary ways to one another.  Friends report lengthy lines from Walmart but my store as been fine when I go early.  Thanks to all the great info on this site!

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:39pm

    Helen Highwater

    Helen Highwater

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    the four horsemen of the Apocalypse

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 5:46pm

    Stinging Nettle

    Stinging Nettle

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    Stinging Nettle said:

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:18pm

    ao

    ao

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    Jay Pine, did you notice something ironic about the Patron Producers for that video

    At 2:45, the first one named is "Hilary".   Bwhahahahahaha.  Nice coincidence.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:25pm

    pipefit

    pipefit

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    Talked to two doctors about elderberry, triple mushroom complex, etc.

    Both my PCP and I a doctor I work with at an alcohol treatment center panned the subject immune system supplements, and a few others I brought up.  "You're wasting your money", they both said.  I was a bit surprised, but I didn't argue.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:25pm

    ao

    ao

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    plagues of "locusts" coming to the food stores near you

    Aftermath scene from the food co-op in Denver where my son shops.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:30pm

    meteor35

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    Testing in Colorado

    I believe we started to try and ramp up testing just over a week ago.  As of 3 pm Saturday today they have only tested 711 people with 101 being positive.  Colorado has been more proactive than most but still only 711 tests as of today.  So right now we have an infection rate of 14% based on very limited data.

    Of course they add this caveat.

    **Now that private labs are conducting testing, the positive cases number represents all positive cases in the state. The negative and total numbers represent just the confirmed data from the state lab. Private labs are not required to report negative numbers to the state. 

    So who knows what the actual numbers are.  My guess there are hundreds of people infected in the state.

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:39pm

    sofistek

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    Fatality rate compared to flu

    Chris, you mention that the fatality rate is about 20 times that of flu but most of the research I've seen suggest that it isn't quite that high; maybe 5x to 12x as deadly. Do you have any links for the 20x claim? Obviously, we'll know for sure once the numbers on millions of cases have been analysed but, for now, the scientific estimate seems to hinge around the 1% mark, probably lower, and flu, as I understand it, is around 0.1%

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:44pm

    ao

    ao

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    pipefit, the sad fact of the matter is

    Many doctors seem to know next to nothing about non-allopathic supplements, herbs, homeopathic remedies, nutritional protocols, etc. that have been proven in evidence based studies to be efficacious.  Ditto with regards to effective non-surgical treatment protocols for everything from atrial fibrillation to hiatal hernia to torn knee menisci to spinal disc derangements to carpal tunnel syndrome, etc.  If it isn't pharmacological or surgical, their knowledge is usually rudimentary to non-existent.  It's very similar to the CDC's recommendations on the corona virus.  Behind-the-curve, incomplete, and often mistaken.  There are exceptions of course.  Seek those professionals out.  They are the wave of the future and maybe the rest will learn from them.

    For my retirement, my daughter put together a beautiful Shutterfly book for me filled with testimonials from colleagues and patients, many of whom wrote about how they were told they needed surgery for xyz malady but came to me upon word-of-mouth referral and subsequently avoided surgery.  One of the most glowing testimonials is from a doctor and his wife.  I treasure that book and those people.

    One of the problems is that people DON'T argue with them and their medical arrogance and self-righteousness remain unchallenged.  In the latter part of my career, when I was professionally and financially secure, I did ... but respectfully and armed with scientific facts and the evidence of my own work and experience.  Some listened and some didn't but I hope I made all of them think and reconsider previously held misconceptions and beliefs.  The generation of doctors who considered themselves demi-gods (and whose patients also considered them as such, reinforcing these doctors' distorted self image) is, thankfully, dying out.

     

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 6:54pm

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2436

    4

    Overwhelmed Medical System: Flattening the curve is not enough--3 Million Ventilators

    A criticism of the "flatten the curve" approach is that it is a general concept, but hard numbers have not applied to the axes of the graphs.   A qualitative example from Vox:

    Joscha Bach writes a semi-quantitative analysis of the general concept of flattening the curve--spreading out the duration of the epidemic so as to not have as many critically ill people at one time which would overwhelm hospital and ICU capacity.

    He asks:  Exactly what is the critical element of Health Care System Capacity?  His answer:  the number of ventilators. 

    In the USA, there are about 170,000 ventilators.

    If we assume that 55% of Americans catch COVID-19 until the end of 2020, and 6% (10.8 million) of them will need ventilators at some point, and we furthermore simplify the model into a normal distribution (a symmetric bell curve with a steep exponential onset, a gradual flattening once most people are infected or immune, and a gradual falloff as cases resolve), we get the following diagram:

    The brown line near the bottom: that’s our limited supply of ventilators and intensive care beds! The red curve does not contain all cases of COVID-19, but only those 6% that will die if we cannot put them on a ventilator for something like four weeks. In this scenario, it means that the maximum number of cases needing care on the same day, without any kind of mitigation, is around 3 million!

    The assumptions:

    • 55% of the population gets infected in the year 2020.
    • 6% of the infected need ICU/ventilator
    • 4 weeks is the average duration of ventilator support needed for each patient.
    • Curve shape is approximated as a normal distribution
    • 170,000 ventilators are available in the USA

    If more than 170,000 people need ventilators at one time, those over this hard equipment capacity cannot be saved.

    And it looks like roughly 3 Million people could need a ventilator at one time during the disease peak.

    The only way to keep the total number of patients needing ventilators under the 170,00 hard limit imposed by ventilator availability, is to flatten the curve out to an impossible 10 year duration.  The same number of people getting infected, but over a 10 year period, rather than one year.   In pictures:

    ---His conclusion is that the disease must actually be contained, not just slowed.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:00pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    Broadspectrum, Welcome and more.

    Hi Broadspectrum,  Welcome to PP! I live in the Central Valley, Cali and things are getting pretty crazy here. Stores are wiped-out in supplies such as TP, paper towels, hand sanitizer and masks/respirators  (cleaned out weeks ago), sanitizing wipes, rubbing alcohol, bleach, gloves, and bottled water.

    People here are tense and inpatient in stores and while driving. Cashiers and store personnel are exasperated and look exhausted. Parking lots are full and people waiting in line to get into the store (e.g., Costco) in some places, and waiting in line to get a shopping cart.

    A worker at Grocery Store Outlet explained to me that once people figured out that Costco, Walmart and Target were out of supplies, they were inundated with shoppers, some frantic looking to buy the above items. One man bought an entire pallet of bottled water, after which the store owner/manager put a limit on water purchases. She also said that they had to break-up a confrontation between two shoppers where one shopper was removing items from the other shopper's cart. She said that supplies were cleaned-out minutes of delivery and after being placed on shelves/pallets. She didn't know if their warehouse and suppliers would be able to keep up with demand. Given the behavior she and other workers have witnessed, several expressed the view that this whole "coronavirus thing" was overblown and people were overreacting.

    Schools and universities are moving to on-line only classes, with all events and meetings cancelled.  Social/cultural events for the larger community and industry-specific associations have been cancelled.

    You can feel growing panic in the air.  This scenario is playing out all over the US, and the world. 🙁

    Shifting gears: I'm sorry to hear about the loss of those close to you. And yes, we are coming upon a time of many losses. I hope you and yours stay healthy and safe to the extent possible during these difficult times. You'll find that you're in well-grounded, well-informed good and caring company here at PP.

    Lastly, I had to laugh at your description of the irrational, neurotic behavior of most people pushing the "cross" button at the stop light/intersection. I've observed this phenomenon for years with a degree of fascination, humor and bewilderment.  Mostly, I just shake my head and watch the dance that invariably accompanies the futile repetitive button-pushing. I've been tempted to get stickers made that say, "Push button only once. Pushing the button multiple times will not make the signal change any faster." to place above the buttons. I haven't because, given that I'm so "special", I will likely get cited and fined by some authority for defacing governmental property and/or posting signs without a permit.  😉

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:18pm

    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1329

    4

    Montana Native, interesting find

    I long ago ceased believing the propaganda rammed down our throat every year that we absolutely need to have our flu shot or the world will come to an end.  Isn't it interesting how they never discuss getting enough rest and sleep, getting sugar out of your diet, getting your vitamin D and other nutrient levels up, using anti-virals like elderberry, etc.  Nope.  Just run out and get your flu shot.  You must get your flu shot!  If you don't get your flu shot, you will die, your spouse will die, your children will die, your parents will die, and your grandparents will die!!  Go get it!!!  Now!!!!  Or you are an unscientific, un-American conspiracy theorist who deserves being stoned for anti-pharmaceutical heresy!!!!!

    I was at the bank last week discussing the corona virus with the tellers.  One of them mentioned that she used to work at a nursing home and the staff used to hate it when it came time to give the residents their flu shots?  Why?  They'd all get sick!  I saw a very similar situation time and time again with patients after they had a flu shot.  Not every one, of course, but enough to know that it wasn't just coincidence.

    I never get the flu shot, don't plan to, and haven't had the flu in decades but I do take the precautions and utilize the measures noted above as well as others that I've posted here in the past.  YMMV.

    I suspect they are brainwashing us for profit ... at the very least.

     

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 7:44pm

    Jeremy Hughes

    Jeremy Hughes

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    Joined: Jan 01 2012

    Posts: 1

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    Jeremy Hughes said:

    Stay the F at home, Chris Martenson uses the F word! out of character, didn't expect that, anger coming through on the latest update

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:16pm

    dragonfishy

    dragonfishy

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    Joined: Jan 01 2011

    Posts: 20

    4

    Doctors retiring suddenly

    Hey, I'm an older doctor (Chris's age) and was fed up with the hospital system with it's ever increasing bureaucracy and red tape. I've watched with alarm as they ignored my warnings about the coming epidemic and instead had endless meetings. I've just finished 2 weeks of home isolation after a nurse I was working with tested positive for COVID 19 after returning from Iran. But I insisted on wearing a P95 mask even weeks ago based on the data that Chris and others have been providing! My swab after quarantine was negative. At the time I was criticised for scaring the staff and patients and told it may be better if you stay home.  A day later  I'm told to stay home to self isolate as a close contact. There is still elective surgery going ahead, but the Australian ASA (society of anaesthetists) came out last night with a statement saying this should stop. Meanwhile, the charge sister, still is following the line that P95 masks are not appropriate because the hospital is designated NonCOVID. As a man in a higher risk group early retirement is looming as a possible alternative given inadequate PPE and the high risk to healthcare workers.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:18pm

    mark2

    mark2

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    Joined: Mar 06 2020

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    Oregon hospital: testing not available to the public

    https://www.peacehealth.org/coronavirus

    a friend has a serious cough that started yesterday, hospital says no test for you

     

    Testing Information

    There is currently a nationwide shortage of COVID-19 test kits and limited capacity of labs to analyze results. Testing is not currently available to the general public in our communities. At this time, PeaceHealth hospitals and clinics are only testing people for COVID-19 who fall into several high-risk categories. This includes those needing to be admitted to our hospitals, and those who are at highest risk of spreading the virus to others, including healthcare and public safety workers. We hope to be able to provide more testing in the future and will continue to reevaluate as testing capabilities increase across the nation.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:21pm

    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2020

    Posts: 86

    0

    Where did the virus come from? Nobody knows.

    Taiwanese professor says virus could be synthetic:

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3880475

    Chinese say "man-made" rumors are hurting their research:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051640/chinese-research-lab-badly-hurt-rumours-linking-it-man-made

    Research

    https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787

    Dr. Baric is well known

    https://sph.unc.edu/adv_profile/ralph-s-baric-phd/

    Baric Lab

    https://www.med.unc.edu/microimm/baric-lab-circulating-bat-coronaviruses-and-the-risk-of-sars-re-emergence/

    Graduate student profile

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shi_Zhengli

    At the beginning of the outbreak here's what she was working on

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7

    Indians made to retract info on Coronavirus (after pressure supposedly by USA and China)sequencing showing HIV-1 sequences.  Paper now removed from Internet.

    Saw above here first:  http://stateofthenation.co/?p=5231

    I read the article and saw a tweet with the 4 areas of the HIV-1 sequences. Then the paper was retracted.  I have a copy from someone else in a pdf.  Sorry, couldn't get it attached here.

    http://stateofthenation.co/?p=8647  shows screenshot of US patent.  I actually saw  the patent but it is now gone on a patent search. [

    ( 12 ) United States Patent

    patentimages.storage.googleapis.com › ...

    PDF

    by WGB Pirbright - ‎2011 - ‎Related articles

    Jan 23, 2017 - ( 10 ) Patent No . : US 10 , 130 , 701 B2 ... US 2017 / 0216427 A1 Aug . 3 , 2017. ( 30 ) ... sion product of ppla as a result of a - 1 ribosomal shift.

    Coronavirus Patent

     
    Official Letter Sent to US Govt Documents the Coronavirus Bioweapon & Media Censorship:  http://stateofthenation.co/?p=9041

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:34pm

    MQ

    MQ

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 13 2011

    Posts: 123

    1

    Central TX-no potatoes in the store

    We have been in lockdown for two and a half weeks. Started adding to preps in January.and the pantry looks pretty decent. Our daughter-in-law went shopping today and offered to pick up whatever we needed. Cream, potatoes, frozen fruit...she could get the cream and a couple of bags of frozen fruit, but there were no potatoes. It was a good thing I didn't want eggs, frozen ready-to-eat meals or any other easily fixed food. The shelves were either bare or nearly bare. Of course, no TP.  And not a tater to be had--who woulda thunk.

    Potatoes very quickly sprout or rot here in Central TX, so I pressure can potatoes and they are delicious. Not at all like the commercially canned ones.

    Some schools just had spring break and it has been extended another week. She and our son-a respiratory therapist-have usually been able to cover each other's time off with Grandma filling in the cracks. But Grandma wants to have many more years to enjoy family. So, Darlin' DIL may be able to work from home. Hope, hope.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:41pm

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 306

    1

    Advice for friend with cough

    I think your friend, or any of us, that has symptoms should just assume it is likely COVID-19, and act accordingly.  Self isolate and take care of yourself, do not go out and make others sick.  DO call your doctor or urgent care or whomever and ask what they would like, but if they say there is no need to go in or to be tested, then please do not clog up that system right now that is busy taking care of critical cases.  Stay home and treat at home unless it becomes bad, then do go to ER. Ask you doctor what to look out for to know when you should go in.

    At home, have the sick person isolate away from other family members and get lots of rest, fluids, good sleep, soup, etc... and stay in another room away from the rest of the family, with the door closed and make sure to have someone clean the bathroom and the patients dishes very well.  Regular household cleaning ( dishwashing) gloves to carry the sick person dishes to the kitchen.  Wash separately, but soap makes the virus die, so just hand wash, with the cleaning gloves on and set that plate, silverware, drinking glass on a towel on their own to drip dry.  Take the gloves off, set under the sink out of the way of children.  If you have 2 bathrooms, the sick person should use one, and everyone else the other one.  If you have one bathroom, then make sure the sick person has their own dedicated hand towel, and clean the sink area and outside of toilet after the sick person uses the bathroom.

    I know it seems like a hassle, and that we would all rather know, but we need to respect the limitations of the healthcare workers and let them take care of critical needs if that's what they need to do.  So what if you treat it like COVID-19, and it was only a cold ?   Be thankful and cooperative of the medical system during this trying time.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:51pm

    mch

    mch

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 09 2020

    Posts: 13

    0

    math error

    You have made a common error in converting a decimal number to a percentage. You are correct in 61,000/45,000,000 = 0.0013. To convert a decimal number to a percentage, multiply by 100. So 0.0013 x 100 = 0.13%

    from a picky math nerd

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 8:52pm

    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2020

    Posts: 86

    1

    Coronavirus testing

    Knowledgeable physician on another board wishing to stay Anon. reported:

    "Many patients do not have fever, just cough. This explains why the temperature screening at the airports did not work.

    Lab testing is so unreliable that the Chinese found the CT scan was best for a diagnosis. Naturally, this is a late diagnosis. We really need an accurate lab test.
    For example, if real-time PCR tests were accurate- they would have developed one for Lyme disease and HPV infection.
    So we will have to live with the false Positives ( test says that they are not infected and they really are) and the False negatives ( they really are sick when the test says they are infected).

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 9:03pm

    Spikenard

    Spikenard

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 13 2020

    Posts: 16

    1

    Those bell-shaped curves.

    I find it strange and subtly misleading in the flattening the curve hypothesis to have symmetric curves that look like normal probability distributions. First, regarded as a probability distribution, they suggest that you are most at risk when you are close to the axis of symmetry on either side of it, whereas, as I understand it, the very top of the curve is when small numbers of new cases are added, even though the cumulative total is very large, as is the case with current Chinese data. Thus, the right side of the curve should show a steep dropoff in new cases, since there are miniscule numbers of new cases, as in China now. Secondly, the curves are always filled in, which mimics the total area under a probability curve which = 1. I‘m guessing that people have been grabbing probability curves off the internet for these illustrations. Personally, I find that confusing. I would like to see non-filled-in curves that are unambiguously not probability distributions. Please correct me if I‘m wrong here.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 9:04pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    Covid-2019 paid sick leave: Good for me, but not for thee....

    GOP Lawmaker Who Voted Against Paid Sick Leave in Florida Takes Paid Leave From Congress

    https://theintercept.com/2020/03/12/matt-gaetz-florida-paid-sick-leave-coronavirus/

     

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 9:24pm

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 306

    0

    California cannot run a quarantine !

    Well, California cannot run a quarantine. I know this will not surprise most of you.  California Department of Health is in charge of quarantine for the California residents who were on the Cruise ship that disembarked in Oakland ( San Francisco Bay) recently.  This is worse the the ones quarantining on the ship off the coast of Japan last month, at least in that cae the people were kept isolated. Not here in California, they are not keeping people in their rooms, they are having everyone go down to the lobby at the same time, to get food !  So, if one person has the virus, they will all be exposed.  Plus, they have had issues with not having soap and towels .

    https://www.ksbw.com/article/santa-cruz-resident-describes-lack-of-toiletries-aggression-during-quarantine-at-air-force-base/31517737?fbclid=IwAR1HYaAhJX17lCK7oAerLQPhGWVf5_Br-wT7XkLMiKxPuTfZTxwcbXyqLGo

    Quote

    Richard Lovelace said there was a lack of towels, blankets, tooth paste and even soap. Lovelace also said that there was no organization when catered food was brought to the hotel lobby and "Next thing you know people started pushing in line and then it was a mob around the food counters. Some people were a little unruly since we didn't know when our next meal would come."

    California likes to complain about the Feds, but this has NOTHING to do with the federal government, who nicely has given us money to help with all of this, so our own department of health can botch the job.  I am sure the fed quarantine for the last cruise passengers at Travis AFB was handled much better, but it is not the Air forces job to keep doing it...

    Modify message

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 9:24pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 728

    1

    sofistek , flu cfr compared to covid

    You do not need to look far at all.   The death rate is not the same as the case fatality rate. but lets keep it simple as I think you are referring to one in the same.

    I have said that the disaster princess will give a sort of good closed finite random sample.   Which it did.  We had  696 infected.   X amount severe and X amount dead.  That will have to play itself out - which will take about 3- 6 weeks.    However, I have used this sample many times in the forum but with a significant caveat.

    The current dead from the disaster princess is 7 ( +1) they are not sure died from this - and are counting another cause of death - but did have the virus so , its a bit hard to say there.   That is at least 1%.   And it can only move higher - as you can not un dead people..  and you are unlikely to diagnose more cases at this point as they have been surveiled.    The big problem with this that these people have be so high-profiled they have received celebrity type care - as if the drs mess up these cases - there will be heck to pay as they are under a microscope with these cases.   if you are dr and your patient comes in and says Hi, i was on the disaster princess .. what  do you do?    You get the picture?   So, I have always said with incredible supportive care , you could probably save everyone .. or at least keep it to 1%.  with good responsible attentive care, with all available resources its maybe 2%.   and with an over-whelmed hospital systems where beds, vents, antibiotics, saline, antivirals , constant and quick blood tests to measure metabolic states etc. are low or unavailable or overburdened.., that number can drastically rise.   Its not about if you can survive this its how many need some form of medical care to survive it.     So for me, the important number is how many need to be hospitalized -and how many need ICU..  ?  They probably know these numbers for the Disaster Princess - but we wont get them until this thing is long done.  But I assure you it has to bee greater than the 1/2% - 1 Percent you state.. As it is even this on the disaster princess.   And many more times this in other places,  even before getting overwhelmed.   And just for reference..  The flu - though technically the same deadly - wherever you are, more can die in some places than other changing the death rate significantly.   My state ranks 49th in the US in flu deaths.. Or flu death rate.  only behind MS.   Each year they calculate our child flu deaths - We usually have around 5-15% of all child flu deaths in the country  , though we account for only 2% of US population.   reprensenting  a 5-10 fold increase in flu death rate than the average US.  I know this is hard to believe , But if you saw the medical system where I am , you would understand.  Never the less to say that flu death rate in the US is one thing.. but to say the flu death rate where I live is a totally and drastically different number.. Again , this all based on availability to adequate health care.  so you can see if the flu can be at 1% - which means they basically didnt do anything to help you. this could be much higher than that.. so it is at least  10 times you talk about certainly not the 5 times. and in reality its going to be 20 times or more as Chris has said..   So , you do not need some study here.. This is obvious.. again its also obvious that flu is at least as deadly as the 5 to 10 times - if you cannot receive proper medical care - which too will happen once the system is trashed.. but it will not change anything in my state.. that is the nice thing, when they do nothing to help , now.  It wont change anything..  But as the flu is 5-10 times worse here in my state for death rate., I expect it to be 10 - 20 times the rest of the US for covid.. So its all relative.    Then they use the excuse - oh so many people have it we dont know about,  well same can  be said about the flu.  but in reality they are pretty good at estimating this.

    But , if you sit around and only focus on the dead you have a bigger problem.   You are ignoring the permanent damage to , cardiac, respiratory, immune , and nervous systems that leave the "recovered" people disabled. and you are also missing the fact of a second wave that will be more deadly due to the ADE effect.    So , do not get comfortable .. Because the death rate is not the only thing to worry about .. you must worry about if this causes permanent harm to those who survive. and then what happens with you get the infection again.. Dengue jumps from less than 1% fatality on first infection to 10-43% on second infection.. So.. we know far too little yet.   And way too much to know that if you cant get antibiotics,saline, oxygen, vent, antivirals.. that way way more people will die..   With great great care - the death rate could be Zero. , but in reality not likely..    So, yes its survivable to a low low low death rate.. but the question would be how many would die, if no supportive care could be provided.. And iI can tell you the flu will go way up as will the rate of death for all other causes.. evecn heart attacks.. you will see when it takes 20 minutes to get an ambulance vs 5 minutes..  or the lab takes 2 hours to get your blood results vs 35 minutes.

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 10:26pm

    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 306

    0

    Nordicjack, what state are you in ?

    Please give your approx geographical location on every post that talks about your area, I have to remember that too.  Then we know how conditions vary around the world and even this country

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 10:51pm

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    0

    Interesting finding on age groups

    Comparison of South Korea (where they tested so many) and Italy (where they are running out of tests and testing only very sick people) shows that the age group most likely to be infected and infectious is the 20-29 year old age group #staythefhome

    https://twitter.com/markwby/status/1238867143363567616

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 11:00pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    0

    US Domestic Travel Bans Being Considered

    Why am I getting the back of the nape of the neck feeling this isn't going to turn out all peaches and cream?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/03/14/coronavirus-travel-president-trump-adds-united-kingdom-ireland-flight-restrictions/5050097002/

    The talk of domestic travel restrictions comes as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday issued an unusual advisory on travel within the United States on its website. The headline: "Should I travel within the United States?''

    The CDC said it doesn't generally issue advisories or restrictions for travel within the United States but is doing so because cases of COVID-19 have been reported in many states and some areas are experiencing community spread.

    Are police check points soon to follow?

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 11:17pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    0

    Is it time to max out the credit cards?

    Pros: Stock up on supplies which can be used to help friends, family and some of the people around you while they are available.

    Cons: I might (or might not have to pay this back.) Could completely close my credit limit. This would take me to about 50% utility, and in this crisis, cause my issuing banks to cancel any more credit.

    ---

    I'm not that cash rich but I have about $50K in a recent work related 401K, that I was going to use to put in a garden workshop/ storage shed in sister's place where I plan on moving into this Fall. Along with the $8K for that (big shed 8'x16') I'm putting a simple apartment in her basement to live in.

    Unfortunately this crisis has kept me from going back to work part time like I'd planned. At 63 I'm 2 years from being able to draw 90% of my Social Security. I've drawn down about $10K of it so far.

    I've got about $8K in existing credit card debt, and put another $3K in prepping for this $hit $torm over the last 6 weeks, about half of that to backstop family who didn't at first see the wisdom of preparing when Chris' alert got me very worried.

    An advantage is that Social Security payments can't be garnished by anything but Federal tax liabilities. So after this crisis I could conceivably just stop making payments or declare bankruptcy to wipe out my expenses. That's if I don't get sick and die, lol.

    I have to be honest, I'm getting a bad feeling watching the reactions of government officials to all this. I'd make references to Keystone Cops but I don't want to belittle the Keystone Cops. We're also starting to see local police departments warn, you are on your own.

    I have a friend who is way more hard core prepper than me, who would gladly let me and my sister shift to their home to hunker down. We have a long history and they like me cause if I show up, I bring a lot of supplies with me. It would be uncomfortable and tight though. My sister would kick and scream if I suggested leaving her home.

    I'm thinking hard about putting another $2-3K on the cards this week, for long term prep supplies, and say $crew my credit.

    Any opinions or suggestions, PP community?

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  • Sat, Mar 14, 2020 - 11:35pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    Not Sure of Your Objections?

    Spike, you don't like people to fill in the curves? We do that so people can clearly see the two different ones? It doesn't mean much if its a black line on white background or a black line filled in under it with blue or green.

    Personally, I find that confusing. I would like to see non-filled-in curves that are unambiguously not probability distributions. Please correct me if I‘m wrong here.

    You want a variety of non-symmetrical curves to take into account the differing possibilities of rapid increase or decrease of infection cases at the beginning or end of the peak? You are welcome to generate those graphs and post them. Though I have to say, just like all the argument about different factors affecting CFR and whether I'm right or you are right about a number we're not going to know until years after this outbreak, arguing about different factors of early or late drop offs of infection rates seems like mathematical masturbation.

    (sorry its late, I'm tired and should have gone to bed an hour ago)

    Yes, I'll say it, you are wrong here.

    What is being demonstrated by these diagrams isn't the whole range of possibilities but one simple concept, if we don't lower the number of cases happening at any one time, to be under the maximum capacity of the health care industry, then WE ARE SCREWED.

    The graphs don't have to be perfect.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:17am

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 357

    0

    A thought

    Threaten to quit as it is a OHSA issue, and will only stay if if  provided with HEPA  filter PAPR  as there are peer reviewed papers that show surgical masks are 0% effective against viral aerosols, and another the finds no difference between N95 masks and surgical masks in protecting against influenza in hospital ER's.

    Cheers Hamish

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:21am

    Spikenard

    Spikenard

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 13 2020

    Posts: 16

    1

    Spikenard said:

    dtrammel, thanks for your response. I do see the concept and accept that entirely, the concept being to lower the curve so that the peak falls under the hospital capacity line. No objections to that whatsoever. And I understand that ad hoc arbitrary curves pose a problem. Nevertheless, I found that I personally was bothered by these standard curves resemblence to the normal distribution curve. It reminds me of how on the Rocky and Bullwinkel show, Boris and Natasha would always show up in some new disguise to which Rocky would say, *Haven‘t we seen you somewhere before?* I would not have noticed this but for the fact that when Chris first started illustrating this curve he would hand draw curves that seemed to represent this phenomenon, which curves did not resemble probability curves. Now, it seems like everyone is using the NPD curve. When I see that curve my knee jerk reaction is to think it‘s a risk profile rather than simply the number of cases over time. I have to remind myself of that each time. Come to think of it, when people were speaking of this wave and much higher wave to come next winter, I recall that this was being referred to as a *binormal distribution* which would naturally lead me, personally, to a misinterpretation.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:46am

    KeriTheKiwi

    KeriTheKiwi

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    Joined: Mar 13 2020

    Posts: 8

    0

    Heard NZ might be looking at closing border

    UNCONFIMRED

    NZ is seriously considering closing the border.  If yes (?) will be announced this week, my guess Monday night/Tuesday morning NZ time.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:52am

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 122

    0

    Thank you MCH

    Nice to have you aboard.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:52am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

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    Buying the dip in gold and the DOW

    By all means Montana guy, buy the dip. Nobody should dissuade you and I won't be the first since bounces are assured from oversold conditions. That's just part of how markets work. I don't recommend holding though since the outlook of metals prices is dismally clear (to me anyway) but please do make your own calls. We need guys like you.

    But never mind gold for a second, what really interests me right now is the DOW more than anything else and so I will write my forecast here and let you judge it as Sunday rolls around and the new week begins.

    Foremost in my mind is that the DOW has not yet hit bottom.

    The ferocious bounce we saw on Friday was the result of computers and their companion algo's mechanically hitting a 20,230 low target that was the support line in all their code. In the process, the DOW never even reached down to 20,000 nor settled and consolidated at 20,230 correctly and as an outcome its now going to fall even lower. What we should have seen at 20,230 was a proper close and an overshoot on the daily level below that price point but obviously the market was feeling insecure since the humans really have no idea what's happening right now and so the machines were in total control.

    And so, being machines, the computers just kicked in automatically at the technical low and took price straight back up by 1000 points without many objections from anybody and then carried on higher before finally closing the day around 23,000. It was enough to make a lot of guys think the bottom had been hit. Too bad for them.

    Starting Sunday night things will be a little different since over the weekend the bats and the vampires have pretty much sorted things out and see the opportunity. And they are going to be taking these markets right back down because that bottom was both imperfect and incomplete and everyone knows it. So if you had big plans to see a huge bounce continue from where price stopped on Friday and have bought heavily for the bounce then this memo is not going to be good news for you.

    What I believe is that there could be as much as 3000 points of loss on the DOW next week and we are heading to 19,590 as a bottom that can be bought for a genuine reversal (using the front month contract as my measure here). It does remain to be seen of course and should Dow futures soar Sunday night then feel free to write back and tell me I don't know what the hell I am talking about. LOL

    Being humiliated by total strangers on technical matters is apparently my specialty lately. Otherwise, get ready to sell when you wake up Monday morning if its another sea of red since, from my viewpoint, the bleeding is not quite over yet.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:55am

    shally

    shally

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    Joined: Mar 15 2020

    Posts: 1

    0

    6 Stages of Awareness

    Hi I am not sure who asked, they were looking for Chris's adjustment or was is awareness. I think it was March 12 video.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:16am

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 760

    0

    Five to ten times as bad

    nordicjack,

     

    Yes, I'm referring to the infection fatality rate. This is the data point mentioned in the study of the Diamond Princess, trying to apply what they can learn from that to the general population. They came up with the figure 0.5% to 1.2% (if I recall correctly). I've also read the "below 1%" figure a few times. I haven't seen the figure that Chris claimed mentioned except in the early phases before much had been studied.

    I get your point about the damage, though.

    Hey, I do think that 5 times as bad, is bad enough to worry people and that the real possibility of 20%-30% lung capacity loss just adds to that worry. I just don't like extreme numbers being posited frequently without some kind of reasoning.

    Thanks for the reply.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:18am

    shimz

    shimz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 38

    1

    Denial or depression stage?

    No. Oh no no no.
    Things are happening faster than I thought. Hospitals are running out of equipment, health care wokers are calling in sick, there are shortages of staff as well as supplies. And we have the situation authorities were trying to avoid: Mr Badger is - most likely - in hospitals.

    To make things even worse, there are rumours that UK's strategy is being considered. I really hope those are just rumours, because if true, that would be more horrifying than anything else I have heard this far.

    (Sweden)

    Update: For now the herd immunity strategy seems to be mainly rumours. Our CDC equivalent denies that this is the current strategy and says it's totally focused on slowing the spread.

     

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:24am

    jmone

    jmone

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2020

    Posts: 242

    0

    jmone said:

    Unless there is a "Miracle Cure" from China, the news will continue to be bad.  More infected, dead, cancellations, earning downgrades, business closures, bankruptcies, unemployment, recession, talk of depression etc.  Fridays close is back to about where we where at the start of 2019.  How do you think companies are going now vs the start of 2019?  I don't think we will see a bottom for many months till the bad news is all out and we know what the forward earnings look like.  I'm surprised that under the continual disclosure rules that companies are not flooding the wire with earning downgrades.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:29am

    jmone

    jmone

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    Joined: Feb 28 2020

    Posts: 242

    0

    jmone said:

    ...and image what happens to the markets when the US starts to get 10,000's of deaths and the panic really sets in.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:49am

    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    1

    Oh Nairobi

    You're going to feel so bad pretty soon....

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/price-physical-gold-decouples-paper-gold

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:54am

    CBellu

    CBellu

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    A couple of interesting online epidemiology lectures from EPFL

    I just saw a couple of interesting lectures on Youtube. These are out of date (from Feb 26 and March 7), but have a lot of interesting info about infectious diseases and Covid-19 in particular. It seems that Marcel Salathé had been invited to give a lecture before the Coronavirus became a thing and changed his first lecture to give info on the subject.

     

    The first is 1 hr 33 mins, but worth a look if you have some time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RQBtA4dK9s

    The second is more recent (still out of date, from March 7) but shorter 22 mins:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0cjSnAynGs

    Just an FYI, but he gives an epidemiologists perspective. I wish I had found them sooner.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 3:52am

    Desogames

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    Flattening the curve - Adjusted for reality

    You know i learned an very important lesson in 2011, when i was absolutely certain Greece was going to collapse the Euro and EU with it that i bought a few bags of sugar and salt in almost a panic.

    Turns out i never anticipated €350 billion in government guarranteed bailouts. Rotated the entire banking sector debt onto the balance sheet of the EU governments dontchaknow.

    So the lesson i learned was:
    You can't see everything on a chart.

    The economy is peoples and the charts only show what peoples did. If you don't know at what time they did what, the charts are meaningless. The line doesn't move by itself; it's moved by people.

    So with my real life experience of how people work; here's how that flattening the curve really looks in actuality once things get going. NOTE: I used the vox's chart *only* because it's more zoomed in so i've got more room to work with. This same principle applies just as much, if not more, to the more extreme charts.

    My point is, in reality, the curve has already shifted. We're past "no problem". We're already hitting "we're going to have a problem" because we see the human effects of what humans do once we hit the stage, "we're going to have a problem":
    - Rationing
    - resupplying with surrounding stockpiles
    - Increasing capacity by ~20%
    - plans drawn up for multiple scenarios
    - spreading out sick patients over hospitals (who then have their own patients more spread out, causing a chain reaction if the problem isn't mitigated in the meanwhile)

    Italy has reached the Overwhelming stage. That's why they went on lockdown. Iran is past it; deaths are mounting due to healthcare inefficiencies, simply because their system was weaker and cracked sooner.

    I'm afraid that "flattening the curve", while very good advice and we should still try to do it as much as possible because everything we do will help mitigation as well, is too little too late.

    Flattening the curve was a week ago. That's the problem with exponential functions. Your catch up has to be even faster. Like trying to keep Chris's baseball stadium dry. If you need 1 mop for the job, then 2, then 4, Then you can't have a response where you try to mop it with 1 mop, then 2, then 3. Basically if you're going to run you're going to die tired.

    The only way to stop this *now* and actually stomp the curve like south korea did, is immediate lockdown of all infected areas, nobody comes out, and the only people allowed to approach is food convoys.

    Prioritize food, water, electricity and medicine, and sacrifice *everything else*. EVERYTHING. If you value human life, that is the right response.

    Don't think it's not gone already. The economy is done for, the oil shock took care of that. The losses last week will be insurmountable. The US was running a $1 trillion dollar deficit 2 months ago, at record highs of everything. What do you think will happen to it now?

    Who will BUY all those bonds? Where the hell is the $50 billion for the national emergency coming from? Nobody's said anything about that, everybody just assumes it's from some jar somewhere. What if it's not? What if they have to go to the open market to get it, an open market that is now very quickly shutting down. Credit spreads are huge and everything the Fed has thrown at it the past week has failed. Lower on the emergency rate cuts, $1,5 trillion in repos lasted 15 minutes. The only thing that rallied the Dow was Trump's jawboning, but how much has actually been enacted? $58 billion ($8 billion package + $50 billion national emergency).

    Great for buying masks. But the $1 trillion dollar deficit means you already borrow $2,9 billion dollars every day (the rest is tax revenue. Which is going to crater this year) which is a truly staggering amount of money.

    Does such an entity really have $50 billion in cash just lying around? the $8 billion stimulus is most certainly borrowed. It will already be within 3 days.

    Who's going to buy those bonds? Italy? China? South Korea? Japan?
    Pension/institutionalized/bank investors?

    The problem is simply too big. Too many peoples moved at once. Even if we just imagine for a second that the virus was a hoax all along; one giant joke, then just like highway ghost traffic the depression has already happened. Just because there's no accident at the end of traffic doesn't mean the traffic wasn't there.

    Only thing any of us can do now is fight for our own local community and try to mitigate the impact locally as much as possible. Read what's on this website, go to your local hospital as long as it's still safe, and just go talk to somebody. Make sure they're on the right page. Make sure they know about the Aerosols, being infected via Eyes, that younger people get infected just as much only they show less (severe symptoms), to not be dismissive when somebody comes in Confused or Intelligible because those are symptoms caused by Covid (because people will, at first, assume "oh it's just another crazy like all of them have been so far. Gamblers Fallacy).

    Forget the authorities, they have been behind the curve for too long. Bureaucracies in the west are too big and too slow to adjust to this. We are on our own.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 4:14am

    Desogames

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    More on the subject of loss

    Since the situation is escalating, i just wanted to leave this here. It'll become important later when it becomes apparent that you did everything right, prepared in advance, tried to warn people, yet still either got infected, lost a loved one, or saw society break down exactly as you said it would.

    Remember this to pull yourself together and get back out there.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 5:06am

    Nairobi

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    Gold Propaganda

    Desogames, that article you linked is not really an article at all. It's more like an opinion piece from a company that sells bullion and it is propaganda so be careful what you believe. Right now a lot of dealers are holding stock they bought two weeks ago at prices above the current market price and they need buyers to take it off their hands quickly so of course there are "shortages" so you better run in and buy something quick.

    Or....you can use your head and just let gold fall. Gold is going to deflate. It's funny that even some real old hands in this marketplace still think gold is the thing to own right now and its bulletproof but I don't think they are appreciating the severity of what is now taking place in the resource markets. We have a near collapse on our hands so this is a time to shelter in dollars and not get fancy trying to make points about gold being some special savior.

    After listening to the same repetitive propaganda being spewed by the gold promoters since the year 2000, the one thing I am sure about is you need to use your own head and examine the charts yourself. Do not take anyone's words at face value where precious metals are concerned.

    Most of those guys blathering do not know what they are talking about.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 5:21am

    Spikenard

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    Debt jubilee

    Listening to a great video of John Rubino, for some reason crystalized my comprehension of the twin exponential functions related to the corona virus and the debt accumulation which is now a sword of Damocles hanging over the world economy. Rubino basically says that there are two paths for the world economy: a 1930s style deflationary depression or massive currency devaluation. It will either be one or the other, but most likely currency devaluation since that is more stealthy.

    It is clear, however, that in the case of the debt exponential function, things were bound to reach the point where  a dollar‘s increase of debt has no economic benefit. The gigantic overhang of debt represents the total interest generated by exponential debt increase from rolling over debt. The overwhelming increase in corona virus cases could even be imagined as a sort of debt overhang imposed by nature.

    Thus, an alternative to the two alternatives mentioned by Rubino would appear to be implementing the ancient biblical prescription of a debt jubilee in some form or another. Interestingly, Trump has already adumbrated that solution in granting a temporary cessation of interest payments on student loans. Since this baby is going down in any case, it seems to me that there needs to be a mass movement aimed at procuring a debt jubilee, something that has been hiding in the shadows but is now apposite. Its time has come!

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 5:29am

    Desogames

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    Weird opinion

    Kinda a weird opinion when you "need to get rid of stock you bought 2 weeks ago" while in the article it says "Cannot get silver eagles 2020 anymore" and "we're raising premiums on weekends because of a demand spike".

    I mean if you're desperately trying to sell gold, why RAISE the premium? It's the same with Saudi Arabia, if you've got a budget for $56 a barrel which leaves you with a 6,4% fiscal deficit, why on *earth* would you crash the price to try and win against a nation with no outside debt, no treasuries exposure, a 7% of GPD sovereign wealth fund (would mean $1,5 trillion in cash if the US had it) and can, very certainly, survive $30 oil prices for a year. Their claim of $25 for 10 years seems bluff; they're not in that good of a position, it's completely ignoring the knock on effects for the rest of the global economy. But $25 for 5 years? Sure. I'll give them that. With alot of pain, though.

    Meanwhile nobody even mentions US shale which has never turned a profit and is deeply in debt. They actually need $80 or more a barrel or the whole house of cards comes down, which isn't a good spot to be in after the price wars from 5 years ago. And the US needs to fund a $1 trillion dollar deficit on the open markets which just had it's biggest liquidity seizure since 2008.

    As i've kept saying but people seem to gleefully ignore. You prepare for the future. Not for now. Physical Gold is an store of value, an insurance. Can the value go down against the dollar? Yes. Can it go up against the dollar? Yes.

    Is that because the value of gold changes? No. The value of the dollar changes.

    Gold is deflating now because we're in a liquidity crisis of epic proportions. Cash is king. Not for any mystical reasons. But because Cash is still the no.1 collateral and everybody and their mother is scrambling for collateral.

    The Fed offered $1,5 trillion in repo operations. Dealers only took1 $78 billion. Why? Because for repos, you need to post collateral. And i am *veeeery* bullish on collateral at the moment. All of it is digital of course and well, physical gold is not. Hence, cash.

    You're forgetting 1 thing Nairobi. Supply and Demand. While the financial markets might have been made deliberately obtuse and opaque, the real world economy still operates on the simple principle of supply and demand.

    Paper gold will go down, sure. That was the whole point of the article. Good luck finding physical for the paper price. Oh - you can find physical, sure! but at what cost? It's not binary yknow, there will always be some supply, but demand sets the price.

    We have a near collapse on our hands so this is a time to shelter in dollars and not get fancy trying to make points about gold being some special savior.

    How are you so sure the Dollar is so safe?

    Because it's always been?

    EDIT: Just to continue that line of thinking. WHERE do you have your dollars? Banking system? JP Morgan? A vault? Cause i took what cash i have out of the banking system 2 months ago. What is your estimate on when the US institutes Capital Controls?

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 6:03am

    Desogames

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    More charts, and something... really suprising.

    Anyways, i was preparing some charts for my argument; just quickly gonna go through those first then we get to the weird thing.

    I wanted to post that chart just as an example that we *do* have an example of a historical period of deflation where none the less, gold increased in value. No, they won't confiscate gold now, because it's pointless; the dollar is no longer backed by gold. Confiscating gold does nothing to shore of the confidence of the dollar, in fact, it'd be as counter productive as Jay Powell's emergency 50 bps rate cut. Also, from a human perspective, many if not all of the rich elite in control of the US actually own the bulk of private physical gold (as well as other assets), so it's not in their interest. Inflation is, tho.

    The reason i'm bullish on silver is simply upside potential. Silver will get hit harder first, then rise more later. At some point the market will turn - it always does - and i just want to be in that market when it happens.

    Just as we're learning with ETFs now, the size of the exit is no where near big enough to accommodate everybody leaving at once. So too, is the entrance to physical gold and silver, when everybody tries to get inside at once.

    Regardless of your current stance on silver/gold, you can't possibly deny that that chart is extremely bullish. Adjusted for inflation we're already damn near the 2007 bottom, with Trillions and Trillions of money printed since then! Will it go lower in the short term? Very likely, the line is very much above the 2000 lows so there's still downside potential. It's just the upside potential is so much larger.

    The question is; are you again so sure you are the one to call the rush for the entrance as sure as you called the rush for the exits?

    Aaaanyway. That's not the weird thing. I came across that when i was looking up gold production vs oil production to make a point why gold will rise while it's natural oil should fall. Buuut that's not really important. What *is* important though, is this thing i came across while looking for that info:

    THAT is not normal. Especially not considering the 2 charts left and right of it. Maybe be indicators of a market breaking under stress like so many things are at the moment.

    Any comments on what the hell i'm looking at here?

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 6:08am

    TurquoiseRose

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    Genomic changes

    For real-time genomic changes see the link below.  You can also track the L (leucine strain)and S(serine) strains.

    www.nextstrain.org

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 6:11am

    Galene77

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    A note from Europe...

    I flew from the UK to Switzerland (biz trip)… 28/02 and returned on Friday 13th – unlucky for some. I’m isolation for 7 days being a 60s myself… (5 days to go)

    Here’s a summary of what happened Friday 13th.

    I took 2x Swiss trains SBB which got me to Basel, then a flight to the southwest UK… then a coach to my home. Throughout my journey I wore a N95 mask purchased before the panic in Jan’ due to being a heavy user of Chris’s early warning vids. It had to be removed for security checks frequently enroute. Though not seated on train/plane/coach.

    No one else on my journey had any protection at all. This is a tragedy for security staff at airports, and jet cabin aircrew. Would I be panicked to see staff on coaches, planes or trains being adequately protected?

    Not at all – reassured in fact.

    This anecdote is key: I was standing on a 1st class ICE train point almost Noon regional Swiss small town… not many folks hopping onto the Zurich train. Opposite platform..  a group of 12-15 year olds teens shuffled on opposite from where I stood - about to hit their few ride stops train home post Schulunterricht.

    Immediately they spotted me…. loud coughing ensued… and a chant of “Corona… Corona….”

    I just stood fast... and didn’t turn… (thinking different has been a career choice of mine)

    Bottom line? Their 50s parents and elderly grandparents are f#ckd.

    This is why too, central the EU and UK is doomed to go full Italia. Likely also the good ole USA. Why? They are all adopting the 4 stage strategy…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak

    As of last night 300 UK scientists have thankfully challenged Boris’s take-it-on-the-chin approach.

    http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on_coronavirus_measures.pdf

    We blew it folks the time for serious action was draconian lockdowns in Feb.

    What can we expect now?

    UK 1.5m gone by Xmas 2020,mainly the 80s age group generation, then 70s and 60 year olds and any younger folk who are immunosuppressed or vulnerable.

    USA numbers are more ugly possible 7m+

    (Normalcy bias has a lot to answer for on this one)

    Finally, some words of wisdom from a yank Medic – best PODCAST summary of where we are at as of this weekend.

    https://peterattiamd.com/peterhotez/

    Good luck everybody, sadly it has come down to that.

    P.S.  God bless Chris & Adam for tirelessly getting the word out, their foresight will I’m sure have saved many.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 6:11am

    Nairobi

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    Gold premiums

    Des, one of the reasons premiums on gold go up is because the price of gold falls below the cost it was purchased for. That is the mechanism by which dealers working near spot have of getting paid for their higher priced inventory. If they bought at 1700 and 5 days later prices have crashed to 1500 there is going to be hell to pay since margins are pretty thin in the metals business.

     

    So the way they will make up part of the difference is with premium. They may take a partial loss on some product bought at the very top though. And then the balance of inventory is stuff they bought weeks or even months ago at much lower prices so if they are careful they won't face going broke by wild price swings. But they won't tell you any of that because like all propagandists it suits their narrative better if they tell you there are premiums due to high demand.

     

    Just watch demand fall as gold prices deflate though. Des, the chart tells me we are going to 1305 to close that gap. But once we hit 1305 we are going to experience an unavoidable technical breakdown that will cascade prices back the the prior lows of 1045.

    There is no way out of this anymore. I surmise a final low on gold below 1000 dollars because some chart work shows that is a very strong possibility. But its not a guarantee. We may just see a double bottom around 1045 but really what's the difference when you are coming off a 1700 dollar high?

    Gold is going to get bludgeoned. Even if the gold bugs don't want to believe its possible.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 6:46am

    Ision

    Ision

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    Maxing Out Credit For Pandemic...

    This is a very simple matter.

    Just ask yourself, "Is my credit more important than living?  Is my credit score more important than keeping my family better prepared for the effects of this Pandemic, and the total collapse of the economy?"

    Maxing out your credit cards, and all other forms of credit, in an effort to obtain what you need to survive this disaster...IS WHAT CREDIT IS FOR!!

    Remember, this pandemic will result in a world wide depression, and an economic disaster, which will effect every aspect of our lives.

    Imagine looking upon the corpse of your wife and thinking..."Well, at least my credit is still good."

    One can use several legal and tactical means to handle credit dept, AFTER your family gets past this pandemics and the transition into what follows.  Chapter 13, Chapter 7, and the like.

    Who knows, you may die and your life insurance will cover it all...IF your insurance company actually pays out anything at all.

    Get what you need NOW...while you STILL CAN.  What good is credit, after your financial institution cancels all credit?

    Just don't spent it on meaningless garbage.

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 7:07am

    Desogames

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    IMPORTANT

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/not-just-seniors-french-doctors-report-50-icu-patients-under-60-years-old-netherlands-under

    Looks like the Chinese where lying about the young being unaffected.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 7:19am

    blackeagle

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    Cataract surgery - Question

    I have a question about cataract surgery (I will ask it tomorrow to my doctor, anyway).

    We are in Quebec in which sanitary state of emergency has been declared yesterday. So we can expect that resources will be diverted to urgent needs.

    I am scheduled for a cataract surgery in two weeks (first eye). The second eye is scheduled for June 10th.

    I am considering the fact that the second surgery could be delayed.

    I could delay the first surgery until after the covid wave, but I really need to "clarify" my vision.

    My question is: how comfortable (or uncomfortable) is to live between the two surgeries? i.e: one eye done and one eye not done.

    My work involves 8 hours of computer screen 5 days/week.

    Thanks for your answers.

    Regards

    JM

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 7:35am

    Desogames

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    @blackeagle

    At this point there's a chance you won't even make that 2 weeks appointment. First thing to go are non-essential surgeries to increase ICU capacity and you seeing worse does not make you die. It's that kind of a deal.

    However, since i also have a degenerative eye disease (Keratoconus) that causes me to see a glare around everything that is high contrast (such as light sources), i have some experience 😀 i walked around for a long time with old glasses where one eye got worse then the other, simply because "i see blurry anyway might as well save the money".

    It is annoying, but possible to adjust to. The main thing is which eye your dominant eye is. If your dominant eye is better then your non dominant eye, you will suffer greatly less. Your brain *can* switch between dominant eyes, as mine did once i got my new glasses a year ago causing my previously blurry eye to see better, but the adjustment process takes a while. It's not pleasant in any case. And of course, the bigger the difference between both eyes is, the more annoying it'll be. (thats why i ended up getting new glasses, cause it got too annoying at some point).

    There's another thing to consider - how much is the hospital going to be a source of infection while you're there? Surgery means you go under, means you're wheeled into a recovery room afterwards, how many nurses with Covid are going to be walking around there?

    At this point; i would almost say if your eyes degenerate at similar rates, i'd just live with seeing less for a little while. But what ever you decide; make sure it's a decision you can live with for *atleast* a year. Maybe 2. There's no guarantee there's capacity for elective surgeries as long as this thing continues anywhere down the line.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 7:45am

    ckessel

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    ckessel said:

    Nairobi,

    I am not an expert in this matter but IMHO not all gold is created equal. I think there is a big difference between paper gold and physical metal which you have in your possession.

    The current price is set by paper gold. When, not if, the correlation breaks then you will see a difference. There seems to be a quiet move toward safety at the moment and that puts demand pressure on the physical. Dealers will have to decide to either close their windows or start asking for premiums to cover the difference.

    No way will I be doing a cut and run with physical PMs. ETFs, well maybe you will see some selling.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 8:24am

    John Wick

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    Maxing out credit lines and low rate offers

    Ision, this is an interesting point. I've been thinking about all these low interest offers that I have access to, as in for a single 3% upfront charge I borrow at zero for 12 to 14 months tens of thousands of dollars. I hate debt and am almost debt free. But if one needed to put some cash aside just in case, paying 3% to do it may be inexpensive insurance if it really hits the fan. On the other hand, I've been prepping for years so don't need to stretch myself, yet.... This may not be true of some others here.

    TWA

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 8:36am

    Desogames

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    On credit

    Note that the bank can also pull credit, and many of them will. My mother made the mistake when she saw an ING commercial in 2008 (before the crash) that said "if you have problems, call us, we'll get you sorted". She was gonna have back surgery and would be back up and running in a month or 2 so she wanted to make sure there wasn't any problem.

    ING pulled the whole €60,000 loan a week later, payable back in full immediately. Pushed my mom down a long long road of debt servitude.

    Remember. Everybody right now needs liquidity. Everybody. There's a reason why companies, after Boeing did so, started drawing down their credit revolvers en masse. First come first serve. And once it's on your balance sheet, well. When you owe the bank $1000 you have a problem, but when you owe $1 million the bank has a problem. They withdraw that loan from Boeing and they stand to lose more then the shareholders.

    If you draw down credit, you owe the bank. I wouldn't really wanna be in a position where i owed anybody anything at this point. If there ever was a time to call in favors this would be it.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 8:51am

    marti61

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    Organic grains

    I work for an organic grains marketing coop- we sell semi truck and train cars of wheat, corn etc. One large mill in the  northern tier of states has suspended deliveries of our wheat 'due to the convid-19'- however their bins are full and this may be used as a reason to slow deliveries. Another mill we work with has instituted hourly chlorox wipe down into their normal cleaning activities. My real concern is transportation- we send 8-20 semi loads of organic grains every week. Truck drivers going thru truck stops at this point don't have a lot of protection. I have been talking to our dispatchers, and at least hand sanitizer/ face mask etc. This is a weak link with the JIT truck services that our food system relies on. and then there is harvest coming up... we're in Kansas/Nebraska/ Oklahoma etc. etc. Interesting times, hope that testing starts to get up to snuff in the midwest. If you don't have food, TP becomes secondary..

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 9:21am

    thc0655

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    Study: NYC has 5-10 days to quarantine or be overwhelmed

    https://medium.com/@donnellymjd/covid-19-new-york-will-be-the-next-italy-but-doesnt-have-to-be-54a5c8137d42

    Analysis strongly suggests that the NYC metro area has 5–10 days to quarantine the city or face dramatically overwhelmed hospitals, extremely high death rates, and a ruined economy.

    The outlook for NYC and COVID-19 is bleak. The policy response is far too slow and too weak to meet the needs of the moment.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 9:28am

    MQ

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    Thank you for the laugh

    It is getting harder to pull myself away from the deep, dark pit of depression. Thank you for introducing me to this you tube channel

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak

    I will be dipping into it frequently in the days to come. I read Hans Zinsser's "Rats, Lice, and History' in high school and later 'The Coming Plague' by Laurie Garrett, so covid19 was well within my world view for most of my life. But, I gotta say, reading about plagues is sooo preferable to living in one. But, living through one is sooo preferable to dying in one which is why I've been a prepper for 40+ years.

    I will add my thanks to Chris and Adam for helping me keep abreast of our changing world.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 9:34am

    thc0655

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    On the ground report from the Pennsylvania hottest hot spot

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/03/15/observations-from-a-hotspot/#more-214376

    I live in Montgomery County, PA. It has the highest number of coronavirus cases in Pennsylvania. Our 20 cases accounts for almost half the cases in PA. The King of Prussia Mall, the 2nd largest in the U.S., closed yesterday. They are making it tough for the ignorant masses to buy shit they don’t need with money they don’t have. All schools in PA are closed for at least 2 weeks. The worst news of all is the State is closing all liquor stores as of Tuesday. This caused mass hysteria as people overran the State liquor stores to stock up for the coming National Guard enforced quarantine.
    One of my sons works at a cafe inside a Marriott in Montgomeryville. He normally works six days a week. They closed the cafe and told him his next shift wouldn’t be scheduled until a week from now. Sounds to me like this is the way big corporations will try to keep their employees from collecting unemployment. Very noble. My other son works in IT and was outfitted with software to work from home starting tomorrow. The restaurant where my wife works is closing after today. I’ll be headed into my office tomorrow as we try to get a handle on the huge costs to our organization from this worldwide clusterfuck.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 9:48am

    CJRinMN

    CJRinMN

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 02 2019

    Posts: 9

    2

    Start a Facebook PP Group for more efficient communication among members?

    Hi All,

    Anyone think it would be a good idea to start a group for us to be able to keep member posts and replies a little more organized? I think we all get some comfort interacting with like minded folks. I enjoy reading the comments but don't like that replies to comments don't stick together. I'm happy to set it up or maybe Admin wants to control it?

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 9:54am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    2

    Facebook

    No, I am not on Facebook.
    I like PP not Facebook.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:03am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1206

    3

    Nairobi is lying to us... sorry to say.

    Nairobi said,

    "Des, one of the reasons premiums on gold go up is because the price of gold falls below the cost it was purchased for."

    This is blatantly false, and the only reason anyone with a brain would say it is that they are purposely trying to misdirect you, which is happening all the time, even here at PP.com, so please, please be aware.  I am completely untrusting and have a hair trigger for this kind of BS.

    All large metals dealers, and any that don't want to go out of business (ala Tulving, and others) Hedge their inventories.   They would be insane not to.  Go ahead, call any dealer and ask.  How do they hedge?  With paper futures contracts, that's how.  This is really one of the only legitimate uses of these contracts... for use by producers and dealers in the supply chain that need to not get their face ripped off while they hold.

    So, ask yourself, who is Nairobi?  You may think you know him/her because they made 100 posts and seem OK... but you have no idea really.  Just somebody on the internet that said something.  Something completely false, about Gold.

    No, the reason margins go up is because the dealers cannot get more inventory, hence they cannot make money.  In this case, they preserve the precious inventory, and their cash flow (for now, until even that high premium inventory runs out) they do have by increasing premiums.  It's that simple, and both Texas PM's and BullionStar have told us so.. and it's been posted elsewhere here on PP.com by myself and THC.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:11am

    blackeagle

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 16 2013

    Posts: 247

    1

    Yep! No facebook!

    Totally agree! PP is a clean and respectful social network.

    No need to go on places known for their "defects" (to stay polite).

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:22am

    Lineman7

    Lineman7

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 20

    0

    Gold as a Foreigh Exchange Asset

    Here is Wikipedia’s definition: “Foreign exchange reserve assets can comprise banknotes, deposits, bonds, treasury bills and other government securities of the reserve currency.[2] Some countries hold a part of their reserves in gold, and special drawing rights are also considered reserve assets.” The US kept silver in its reserve, until the mid 20th century, when it was sold off. A few countries: Australia, Poland and Peru maintain silver reserves to this day.
    I am concerned the US could confiscate gold in a monetary crises, to bolster its gold supply vis-vis other countries. Which is why I also hold silver and US currency.
    Here’e a schedule of Gold Reserves by country done in 2012. The amounts have certainly gone up since then, but gold continues to be with few exceptions the only physical asset in foreign exchange reserves:

    .
    World Gold Holdings as of December 2012
    Tons
    1 United States 8,133.5 76% 8133.5
    2 Germany 3,391.3 73% 3391.3
    3 International Monetary Fund 2,814.0 N.A. 2814
    4 Italy 2,451.8 72% 2451.8
    5 France 2,435.4 71% 2435.4
    6 China 1,054.1 2% 1054.1
    7 Switzerland 1,040.1 11% 1040.1
    8 Russia 957.8 9% 957.8
    9 Japan 765.2 3% 765.2
    10 Netherlands 612.5 60% 612.5
    11 India 557.7 10% 557.7
    12 European Central Bank 502.1 33% 502.1
    13 Taiwan 423.6 6% 423.6
    14 Portugal 382.5 90% 382.5
    15 Venezuela 365.8 75% 365.8
    16 Turkey 359.6 16% 359.6
    17 Saudi Arabia 322.9 3% 322.9
    18 United Kingdom 310.3 16% 310.3
    19 Lebanon 286.8 29% 286.8
    20 Spain 281.6 30% 281.6
    21 Austria 280.0 55.0% 280
    22 Belgium 227.5 39% 227.5
    23 Philippines 192.7 12% 192.7
    24 Algeria 173.6 5% 173.6
    25 Thailand 152.4 4% 152.4
    26 Singapore 127.4 3% 127.4
    27 Sweden 125.7 13% 125.7
    28 South Africa 125.1 13% 125.1
    29 Mexico 124.5 4% 124.5
    30 Libya 116.6 5% 116.6
    31 Bank for International Settlements 116.0 N.A. 116
    32 Kazakhstan 115.3 22% 115.3
    33 Greece 111.9 82% 111.9
    34 Romania 103.7 12% 103.7
    35 Poland 102.9 5% 102.9
    36 South Korea 84.4 1% 84.4
    37 Australia 79.9 9% 79.9
    38 Kuwait 79.0 13% 79
    39 Egypt 75.6 25% 75.6
    40 Indonesia 73.1 4% 73.1
    41 Kingdom of Denmark 66.5 4.1% 66.5
    42 Islamic Republic of Pakistan 64.4 18.9% 64.4
    43 Argentine Republic 54.7 6.4% 54.7
    44 Federative Republic of Brazil 52.5 0.5% 52.5
    45 Plurinational State of Bolivia 49.3 22.9% 49.3
    46 Republic of Finland 49.1 24.6% 49.1
    47 Republic of Bulgaria 39.9 12.0% 39.9
    48 Republic of Belarus 38.5 41.4% 38.5
    49 West African Economic and Monetary Union 36.5 12.9% 36.5
    50 Malaysia 36.4 1.5% 36.4
    51 Ukraine 35.2 4.9% 35.2
    52 Republic of Peru 34.7 4.0% 34.7
    53 Slovakia 31.8 67.6% 31.8
    54 Ecuador 26.3 32.0% 26.3
    55 Syrian Arab Republic 25.8 7.9% 25.8
    56 Kingdom of Morocco 22.0 5.6% 22
    57 Federal Republic of Nigeria 21.4 3.2% 21.4
    58 Republic of Serbia 14.1 5.1% 14.1
    59 Republic of Cyprus 13.9 58.3% 13.9
    60 People's Republic of Bangladesh 13.5 7.5% 13.5
    61 Netherlands Antilles 13.1 36.3% 13.1
    62 Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 12.8 5.5% 12.8
    63 Czech Republic 12.5 1.6% 12.5
    64 State of Qatar 12.4 4.4% 12.4
    65 Kingdom of Cambodia 12.4 16.6% 12.4
    66 Republic of Colombia 10.4 1.8% 10.4
    67 Lao People's Democratic Republic 8.8 36.5% 8.8
    68 Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka 8.1 5.3% 8.1
    69 Republic of Latvia 7.7 05.5% 7.7
    70 Republic of El Salvador 7.3 14.6% 7.3
    71 Republic of Guatemala 6.9 5.8% 6.9
    72 Republic of Macedonia 6.8 14.8% 6.8
    73 Tunisian Republic 6.7 4.5% 6.7
    74 Ireland 6.0 15.1% 6
    75 Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal 6.0 [11] 6
    76 Republic of Lithuania 5.8 04.1% 5.8
    77 Kingdom of Bahrain 4.7 4.7
    78 Republic of Tajikistan 4.4 4.4
    79 Republic of Mauritius 3.9 06.5% 3.9
    80 Canada 3.4 0.3% 3.4
    81 Republic of Slovenia 3.2 15.8% 3.2
    82 Aruba 3.1 24.2% 3.1
    83 Hungary 3.1 0.3% 3.1
    84 Kyrgyz Republic 2.6 7.5% 2.6
    85 Mongolia 2.3 4.8% 2.3
    86 Grand Duchy of Luxembourg 2.2 10.6% 2.2
    87 Republic of Suriname 2.2 13.1% 2.2
    88 Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 2.1 0.0% 2.1
    89 Republic of Iceland 2.0 01.3% 2
    90 Independent State of Papua New Guinea 2.0 2.8% 2
    91 Republic of Trinidad and Tobago 1.9 1.1% 1.9
    92 Republic of Albania 1.6 3.4% 1.6
    93 Republic of Yemen 1.6 1.8% 1.6
    94 Republic of Cameroon 0.9 1.2% 0.9
    95 Republic of Honduras 0.7 1.4% 0.7
    96 Republic of Paraguay 0.7 0.7% 0.7
    97 Dominican Republic 0.6 1.1% 0.6
    98 Gabonese Republic 0.4 0.8% 0.4
    99 Republic of Malawi 0.4 8.9% 0.4
    100 Central African Republic 0.3 8.4% 0.3
    101 Republic of Chad 0.3 2.4% 0.3
    102 Republic of the Congo 0.3 0.4% 0.3
    103 Oriental Republic of Uruguay 0.3 0.1% 0.3
    104 Republic of Fiji 0.2 0.0% 0.2
    105 Republic of Estonia 0.2 6.0% 0.2
    106 Republic of Chile 0.2 0.0% 0.2
    107 Republic of Malta 0.2 1.6% 0.2
    108 Republic of Costa Rica 0.1 0.1% 0.1
    109 Republic of Haiti 0.0 0.1% 0
    Sum 30958.2

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:24am

    Steve

    Steve

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 180

    0

    Covid-19 in the throat. Is there any truth to this?

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:27am

    KugsCheese

    KugsCheese

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 911

    0

    KugsCheese said:

    I have read you have to have a sore throat as a core symptom of Covid-19 so that would make sense.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:36am

    shimz

    shimz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 38

    0

    shimz said:

    It's one of those fake news stories that circulates social media. I fell for it at first. (I tend to fall for a lot of things unless they're obviously dangerous) If it's airborne it's already in your lungs, it doesn't take a brake halfway there. But sore throat is obviously a symtom and drinking water is not going to harm you.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:48am

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 233

    0

    thank you for the post on NYC

    thc0655

    This article just helped me realize why staying out of the city for now is a good thing and will help others as well.  Sadly there is a lot of money at stake for some and people tend to show a lot of bravado here.  Which is not what NYC needs.  Parents are keeping their kids out of school despite what the authorities are saying https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/03/15/pressure-to-close-nyc-schools-mounts-as-acting-queens-borough-president-urges-parents-to-keep-children-home

    We eliminated all of our excess hospital capacity several years ago after the findings of the Berger Commission and it has been an ongoing problem for the hospitals.  Teaneck NJ in the nearby state of New Jersey just instituted voluntary quarantine and people hit the roof in my circle.  Just telling them the facts as they are presented in the link, and emphasizing that we the majority are sacrificing for the good of the (hopefully) relative minority seems to help people understand.  And allows people to feel good about staying home.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:49am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    0

    Gold Premiums and Volatility

    Hello Jim H, I just read your comment about me being a liar (!) and thought I would answer to that. You may not have much experience buying and selling gold and I suspect that is likely the case but I have been trading in this market for 40 years and nobody who knows me would ever call me a liar.

    During periods of high price volatility such as we have just witnessed it is not unusual for premiums to increase. At the very peak in price two weeks ago the company in question may indeed have been having trouble sourcing supply and that is what they are claiming as the reason to apply higher premiums. And that is a legitimate reason when there are more buyers than sellers of certain coin and bars.

    But at other times such as what has just happened with prices for precious metals dropping sharply and without warning there is a second case related to price sensitivity and inventory. The dealer in this case may not have been prepared for the sudden price drop but because they are a business they need a mechanism to account for losses they would otherwise have to absorb. That is also a reason to institute higher premiums and anyone who has been around this market long enough is familiar with it.

    Not everyone is hedged as you suggest or they may not be hedged enough. Don't forget its still people in charge and those sellers can be as smitten with metals as the buyers and perhaps they did not acknowledge the warning signs adequately. But even when hedging strategies are used they may not account for such a severe drop in price and this crash has been greater than 10% which is quite significant. So premiums in this case are more a measure of market volatility than anything else because the spread between the futures price of 1703 at Mondays price peak and the low on Friday was 173 dollars.

    So yes, the premiums are there to offset losses in the physical market.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:59am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1206

    1

    You are still wrong Nairobi

    The big dealers are never,  "not hedged enough".  The more the price drops, the more money they make on the downside hedge they made.

    My last point was that if they can't get inventory, they can't make money.  They make money off the flow.   Your entire post was gibberish.  You can say whatever you want.. full of shit

    When it comes to Gold, I, and many others, can see a liar quite readily here.  You may have managed here for a while because most  everyone is much, much nicer than I am.  So, I will call you out again:  You are a blatant liar who is here to promote false ideas about Gold with the general intention of scaring people away from it.  You should really leave and take your BS elsewhere.

    Your attempt to paint the current rise in premiums as anything other than a shortage of physical metals, in the face of a crashing, and hopefully failing paper price setting mechanism, will not work.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:03am

    MQ

    MQ

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 13 2011

    Posts: 123

    0

    "not sure of your objections'

    Scared people holding fast to their last log floating in their personal river of deNile will often become lint-pickers. The less important and the less provable, the more important that piece of lint becomes. I don't blame people for being scared, I am too, but fear should be the impetus to productive action instead of searching for bits of lint. Times wasting for all of us; I am sad for those still on the riverbank when the flood crests.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:06am

    alanrgreenland

    alanrgreenland

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 07 2010

    Posts: 57

    0

    No, drinking water does not prevent COVID-19

    Already posted here, upthread, by someone else:

    https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-water-breath-test-bad-advice/

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:07am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    0

    Silver is going to CRASH (a lot more than you think so buckle up people)

    I am looking at the silver chart right now and can see that a bounce will get underway tomorrow. Prices dropped violently last week which has created the conditions ripe for a reflexive bounce back and in three weeks time we might be back at 16 to 17 dollars. But I do want to warn you silver bugs that the price outlook is quite poor going into the fall.

    I am forecasting that silver will fall to 10.54 by September 2020

    That is where it will see its final bear market low. From there it is going to take a lengthy period of time to recover back to today's prices. You bugs will no doubt ignore this post even though it might just be the only legitimate forecast on silver you have ever seen in your lives. And I would not blame you. There are endless numbers of people talking about this asset who have almost zero idea what it will do next.  So it will be easy enough for a small sliver of truth to disappear into the cracks along with all the other junk written on the subject.

    But when we get to my target I suspect you will remember you read this.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:07am

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 261

    1

    Credit Cards and Travel Bans

    Credit Cards: It's always a bad idea to anticipate dying - esp if its to get out of debt! Besides which, you're doing great work here and I, for one, would like to see you keep doing it even when the Honey Badger's caged up again.

    It's not your place to save everyone, not even family. But since you've already put money out for supplies for others, you ought to get paid for those supplies by them when they come looking for help. You don't need a profit, you just need to be made whole. Reign in your Christ complex. You're looking out for your sister; that's enough.

    Travel Bans: Military personnel have been recalled to their billets. The order went out Saturday mid-morning to be home in 48 hours. One major I know with a brigade level assignment was on a weekend ski vacation and got personal orders to return Saturday night to be on-base this morning. He says both Military and Department of Defense contractors were also told all domestic travel on assignment is now restricted, and those on the road were to return home.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:13am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    1

    Dontknownothin, I agree.

    Hi Dontknownothin and welcome to PP! Actually, I excerpted that portion of the article in my comment especially as it continued to push the false narrative of Covid-2019 not-as-bad-as....  in an otherwise decent article that helped people to visualize the number of reported (not actual) cases. Sorry if that wasn't clear. So we're in agreement. It is frustrating to still see that fallacy in the MSM after a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

    You should probably change your name as you apparently DoKnowSumThings.  😉

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:15am

    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    0

    Manhattan bank running out of $100

    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/midtown-manhattan-bank-runs-out-100-bills-amid-corona-panic

    It's one thing if people hoard toilet paper but if we have a run on the banks because of this we will *really* have an issue quick. Just to remind everybody; a Bank Run is the only thing the fractional reserve system absolutely cannot take.

    As for the gold premiums, you would be right, if the current situation was anything like the past 40 years. It is most decidedly not. We're in a once-a-century event.

    Conventional wisdom goes out the window; panic wisdom comes in. In a panic, people want gold. Not futures, real physical gold. Anybody still stuck in gold futures at this point is a moron.

    Something i've also said multiple times but something you seem to just gloss over Nairobi.

    The price of physical and paper will decouple. We've always know it would happen at some point. If you've been trading this for 40 years, you should know better then anybody how disconnected the paper and physical markets really are.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hundreds-billions-gold-and-cash-are-quietly-disappearing

    I'm sorry but i'm gonna go ahead and look at those who made a little over just 7 figures. Especially since that article dates from December last year. 1 Week after i took my own savings out of the banking system.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:20am

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 261

    0

    To Quarantine or Not?

    Of course the Medium article is correct. But the state will not take such drastic action independently. It will wait for direction from the national "coordinating" agency, CDC. And CDC will take its instructions in consultation with the Vice President's crisis management team. This is what happens when once independent States in a federation become, functionally speaking, merely administrative districts for a national government.

    I don't see the White House letting the honey badger run freely across these fruited plains much longer, without some serious effort to cage him. Do you? After all, he has an election to win.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:29am

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 198

    0

    Herbs for Lung Repiar

    Indications are that corona causes significant lung damage for some.  I want to offer up herbs traditionally used for lung repair.  My favorites are:

    Mushroom tincture

    Mullein tincture

    Mullein is super easy and pretty to grow so consider getting a start.   Once you have it, you tend to have it for good.

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:30am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    Military Travel Restrictions/Ban

    Thanks for this important update VTGothic. This is very concerning and may suggest a number of actions ahead. Would you please keep us updated on this if you hear anything more?

    Any other PP members with ears to the ground please share credible information you may have to the extent you feel comfortable and safe in doing so.  This is definitely something to keep on our collective radars.  Thanks all!

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:34am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1206

    0

    Regarding PM dealer hedging

    It's important to understand what is true regarding the interplay between premiums, the paper price of Gold and Silver, vs the supply of physical Gold and Silver.

    All large scale dealers hedge their inventory.  As soon as they lock in a price for a new slug of inventory, they buy a downside hedge contract.  This way they get the upside naturally as they hold, and they hedge the downside at the same time.  They only need buy the downside contract.  This practice was documented by JM Bullion if anyone is interested, or if anyone wants to find out for themselves who around here is blowing smoke.

    https://www.jmbullion.com/gold-and-silver-dealer-hedging-infographic/#

    Again, dealer hedging is a very good reason for the existence of a future's contract market.  As most here also understand, the situation we find ourselves in, where price is discovered in these paper futures markets, with almost no coupling to physical whatsoever, is the mechanism by which the WW banking cabal mutes the canary in the coalmine function that Gold should have in relation to the health of Fiat currency.

    Tulving of CA, the dealer I first bought physical Gold from, later went belly up and took a lot of people's money in the process, so I guess I was lucky;

    https://coinweek.com/bullion-report/tulving-company-collapse/

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:42am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    0

    Price discovery

    Desogames, price discovery for commodities including gold and silver, takes place in the futures market. That is where industry meets the large buyers who are actually engaged in the business of trading metals around the world. It is gold bug mythology that there is going to be a big disconnect between spot prices at the retail level and futures contract and settlement. The retail market is still relatively small compared to the commercial sector, jewelry producers, industrial users (of silver especially) and what have you. It needs to be appreciated that what passes for knowledge in the precious metals world where advocates or hard money live is mostly garbage and not accepted as gospel on Wall Street. You guys just keep them in stitches because the stuff that gets written and printed is so absurd. That being said, there is a bull market coming but not until everything lines up. We are not there yet. We are not even in a bull market right now. This is factually the tail end of a secular bear that you will only appreciate once we arrive at the final bottom. But there is no money in my telling you anything useful since you are not a client and would not believe it anyway. So just wait and see.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:49am

    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    0

    New italian numbers.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wal-mart-stop-shop-cut-hours-oregon-reports-1st-death-covid-19-live-updates

    I wanted to highlight this part:

    "The situation is objectively very serious - the governor of Lombardy Attilio Fontana said in an morning in an interview with Repubblica - "the virus is underhand, disappears and reappears and I think there is a very wrong perception in Rome and beyond. The situation is objectively very serious."

    My intermittent symptoms aren't starting to sound so weird now are they?!
    if only people had listened sooner. If only.

    EDIT: HAHAHA! I'VE GOT YOU!

    But there is no money in my telling you anything useful since you are not a client and would not believe it anyway. So just wait and see.

    That has just made everything you said invalid.

    I don't have any profit motive as i've stated many times, i am a saver, not a trader. You, on the other hand, have just admitted to having a monetary interest in not telling me the full story.

    So, kindly, go fuck yourself.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:51am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1206

    1

    Nairobi you are sure trying hard!!!

    I needs to be appreciated that what passes for knowledge in the precious metals world where advocates or hard money live is mostly garbage and not accepted as gospel on Wall Street. You guys just keep them in stitches because the stuff that gets written and printed is so absurd.

    I guess I should feel bad because Wall Street is laughing at me for thinking that Gold and Silver should be priced based on physical supply vs. demand.  I don't feel bad.  I may not be the smartest person on these boards, but I can have a spirited debate with anyone interested as to why I think Ion Trap-based quantum computers will overtake the capability of the first generation Superconducting qubit machines being developed by the likes of IBM, Rigetti, and Google, to become the first able to support useful applications in the late NISQ era.

    Again, you efforts to cow anyone with your talk is simply pitiful.  There are many more liabilities out there, at least order of magnitude, paper Gold and Silver vs. real.  You have outed yourself Nairobi as a defender of the Wall Street, fiat-based system.  Be well.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:00pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    0

    Time will tell

    Sorry guys, the problem in this community of gold advocates is a lack of objectivity and analysis. I am just telling you as frankly as possible that precious metals are in for a very sharp decline and quite a rocky road out to the end of this year. Its not an agenda and no, I don't get paid to write these comments Desogames.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:02pm

    Zana Hart

    Zana Hart

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 23 2011

    Posts: 33

    0

    Sounds strange but it would be ok if I died

    naturally my husband does not agree, but I am 77 and have had two infections this winter, an ear one and a female parts one. I am somwhat overweight too. I've been writing my memoirs and three are up on amazon. One is about the effects on me of taking LSD in 1964. It really changed my point of view about life and death. Anyway jus' saying there can be different points of view.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:10pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

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    Silver

    I was going to post these thoughts earlier, but now I see a kerfluffle has broken out and feel I must weigh in.  The silver chart has been forming an awesome, rounded cup bottom formation since the 1980 high.  It is now pulling back in a handle formation.  Cup and handle bottoms are one of the most powerful bullish chart patterns.  Since I only buy physical, I hope I have some bux when the lows come in.  However, as was my experience in 2001, when silver was around $4/oz.  you couldn't find any.  People refused to sell at that low price.  Some things I picked up then were sterling collector spoons.  So, at silver lows this year, there might be a very limited supply.  Only time I would think of catching a falling knife if any becomes available.  I see junk silver is in a shortage.  Also my favorite colloidal silver is sold out on several sites I frequent.

    One thought that relates to Desogames info., referring to buying any asset, at the same time, think of how and to whom you will sell it.  You may love watching it go up, but will anyone want to buy it from you at the top?  One thing about physical PM, can always trade for food or your life.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:24pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    0

    @Nairobi

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:25pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    1

    Oh, please no PP Facebook.

    Hi CJRinMN, not to be dismissive of your good intentions but I would vote "no" on establishing a PP Facebook (FB) group. But if you, Chris, Adam and the PP team think that that would be a good idea, then go for it. But I won't participate and would never want a FB group to displace the PP main public and premium site.

    I have never and will never join FB, and would be concerned that any PP FB group would be heavily monitored and censored. My three twenty-something children no longer use FB and consider it dated. There may be other age groups/demographics that this might appeal to, but I think a significant proportion of young adults and older adults simply don't "do" FB.

    Chris has established a regular PP presence and following on other social media platforms such as YT and Twitter. I'll watch YT selectively but have never subscribed and don't comment.  I don't participate in Twitter, but will occasionally read a thread if forwarded a specific link of interest from a reputable source.

    I'm a very private person and make a concerted effort to limit my digital footprint (impossible I know but I still try). I've made an exception for PP as PP is exceptionally trustworthy and has outstanding and unique content, a stellar on-line intelligent and respectful community and a behind-the-paywall option for more protected, private discussions.

    IMO, the thread response issue is relatively minor and may be addressed when the new PP IT team comes on board.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:29pm

    Rector

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2010

    Posts: 381

    1

    Facebook Sucks

    Been subscriber here for 10 years.  I vote No.

    Rector

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:34pm

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 122

    1

    New members with huge amounts of posts

    I'm guessing we'll continue to get more of these users. I also guess that many of them will idealistically disagree with some of the set principles of the Crash Course. Honestly, nobody knows what the hell will happen in the next weeks/months. Shit is getting real and the government is going to PRINT. If gold and silver drop precipitously, I will see a buying opportunity. If not, no biggie....I'll continue to add slowly. I'd worry more about a garden and an orchard.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:38pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    0

    Yeah, I Found Prediction Info

    Europe Prediction

    https://youtu.be/TgAjr6PHokA

    USA Prediction

    https://youtu.be/FLjslIGAuig

     

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:43pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1206

    3

    Lack of objectivity and analysis?

    Nairobi said,

    Sorry guys, the problem in this community of gold advocates is a lack of objectivity and analysis

    I moved a few months ago and had to box up all my books again.  I only started unboxing last weekend and I pulled out, "This Time is Different", the 2009 tome subtitled, "Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" by Reinhart and Rogoff.  At root, the book was a statistical analysis that identified the tipping point, in terms of debt vs. GDP, that would signal when fiat currencies die.  This data-driven analysis colored my expectations for many of the ensuing years, which led me to more difficult, but ultimately clarifying lessons.

    Those lessons?

    -  Our money system is not a rule-based system.  The rules will change, often in surreptitious ways.  Money will be printed to favor certain asset classes and to offset deflation.  Interest rates will be suppressed, unless you are out of favor, then you will be punished.  Central banks started buying stocks!  Just wow.  Japan's central bank, which prints (based on the aforementioned book) the most dead-man-walking of currencies in the world today, owns something like 75% of the entire Japan ETF stock.

    -  The FED is part of a global central bank organism that works together to maintain the confidence of the sheep in fiat.  In a well functioning world, we would have a market economy of sorts, where those countries that practice prudent fiscal policy would be rewarded with stronger currencies.  That is not how the world works.  Japan's currency should be garbage.. it's not because if one dies, they all die.

    Could paper Silver go to $10?  Sure, but as Kunga reports based on real experience, you won't be able to get any.  You already can't get the highest quality, most recognizable, most liquid US coins for anywhere near today's paper price.  The guy at the corner PM store may in fact not be hedged, but I am not talking about him (or her).. I am talking the big guys like Texas Precious Metals, who win the favor of many of us through their transparency and integrity - TX won't take your money unless the product is in stock for instance.

    I have no problem at all with someone here commenting that the paper Silver market may go to $10.. it could very well happen.  It won't though happen because of lack of physical demand, which at present is overrunning supply in a big way.  No, the reason the Silver price can go to $10 is that we have a flawed price discovery mechanism.  It's really simple to understand if you think about how the stock market works.  There is a primary market, where demand for actual shares (lets not go down the DTCC rabbit hole for now) drives price up and down, and there exists a leveraged futures market, which generally, but not always, gets wagged by the primary market.  This is normal right?  This makes some sense right?  Well, metals don't work this way.  There is no primary market that wags the futures.  The futures is the price.  It's that simple.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:49pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    No evil FB to block and edit

    Hi, Sparky1,

    I was in Fresno for part of my misspent youth.  Thirty straight days over 100deg. F prompted a move to the coast.  I do not think CJRinMN has good intentions.  Based on his hearing the Honey Badger whisper, "OK, Boomer," in one post.  Kick FB to the curb!😵😵😵😵

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:55pm

    CJRinMN

    CJRinMN

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    Joined: Apr 02 2019

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    Ok, Ok, no FB

    I get it. I enjoy reading here but I also like to engage and find myself not as much because the threads don't stick together.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:05pm

    Matt Holbert

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    Joined: Oct 03 2008

    Posts: 104

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    Mullein also makes a great natural toilet paper...

    See https://www.thesurvivalistblog.net/plant-leaves-as-toilet-paper/

    I know. When I was growing up we owned and operated a grain elevator that was on a narrow twelve-acre site that made it difficult to get to facilities most of the time. As the site of a former deep shaft coal mine, the site had lousy soil and Mullein loves lousy soils. It is ubiquitous here in the Spokane area and I know where much of it is... Therefore I can avoid the hoarding that is taking place in the local stores.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:08pm

    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1329

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    question for Nairobi

    Do you think there is manipulation of the gold and silver markets or do you think their price movements are purely market driven?

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:11pm

    ao

    ao

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    Posts: 1329

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    Rector, Facebook doesn't suck

    It double sucks, lol.  I vote "No" too.  No way do I want to support that platform which I consider a pox on humanity.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:22pm

    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

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    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 104

    0

    Facebook is for children

    and brainless ppl who dont understand freedom of speech

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:27pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

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    Buy dollars and sell gold

    All markets suffer from manipulation to some extent or another but it is not easily possible for any single entity to change the key patterns and trends that exist within each sector of the market. I appreciate that many people have concluded gold and silver are chronically depressed by some insidious cabal of bankers or insider's but the charts do not support that argument in the bigger picture. Even with the manipulations in gold that were proven, the players involved were only able to move prices modestly over short periods of time and it was generally for their own benefit during slow hours of the day when its possible to push charts around. But for there to be a widespread conspiracy to dampen prices against the intentions of the wider market, no I do not agree at all. Gold markets are surprisingly deep, liquid and well traded in spite of the asset class being one of the smallest of all in the commodity sector. It gets a huge amount of attention but the volumes that move there make it nearly impossible for even the most dedicated parties to move the needle for more than short periods of time. This is one of the key beliefs of the gold community though and I understand that because gold never seems to live up to expectations. But did you know that it is still suffering and has never recovered from the exceptional bubble of 1980? Gold has been under a cloud for forty years already and to this very day, price has still never surpassed the inflation adjusted highs of 1980. That is a big long funk and one that is hard to explain but the market has spoken and it does not really love gold the way that ardent gold bugs think it should. Right now you are truly better off holding US dollars though. They will appreciate sharply. Gold.....not so much.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:34pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    Things are accelerating again

    First reports of cash and gold shortages (cause yknow, it gotta start somewhere), now Goldman capitulates.

    You know it's bad when even ol GS gives up. Now (finally) expecting -5% Q2 GDP.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/goldman-takes-out-chainsaw-cuts-us-q2-gdp-5-says-recession-has-begun

    I still say it'll be much worse.

    I think we can all agree on the trash that's facebook. Not that i mind social media in general. I just mind Facebook and their flagrant disregard for privacy.

    I'd abandon google too if it wasn't for android and youtube being virtual monopolies.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:37pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

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    More analysis please Nairobi

    So, you said,

    Right now you are truly better off holding US dollars though. They will appreciate sharply.

    If dollars are going up, which may very well happen, then what are other currencies doing?  What might people in other countries buy to protect themselves from the relative devaluation of their currencies.  Might there be a reason why Gold did in fact recently hit and exceed all time highs in other currencies?

    https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-08-05/Gold-Prices-Hit-All-Time-Highs-Monday-In-These-Currencies.html

    Gold demand is WW.  Your analysis of the US dollar, and the Gold price in US dollars  in isolation seems lacking IMO.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:45pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    0

    Don’t Wear Gloves!

    Soooooo why do Doctors’ and Nurses’ wear gloves?

    You would think the “Officials” want as many people as possible to get this and die? Yep, that will make us better prepared for the next time, - less people!

    Don’t Bullshit Granny

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:46pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

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    The ony currency that mattters to gold is the US Dollar

    Well sure Jim, if I lived in Kenya my perception of gold versus Kenyan Shillings would be different. Same as if I lived in Russia or Zimbabwe. But I don't and the only comparison that makes sense for us is the one we live and trade with. Let me know if you are in a different country though and I can adjust my numbers accordingly. As an aside, the vast majority of Africans want dollars. That is what they buy, hold and store at their homes in their sofas. You know why? Because dollars are money. You can spend them and everyone knows what they are worth. Gold is not money and you know that to be a fact because no legal business will take it in exchange for goods. It suffers from one very huge insurmountable drawback.....you cannot spend it.

     

    By the way, I am expecting silver and gold to bounce back starting today. Does that make you feel any better? I don't hate metals either by the way. Its just best to remain objective about them since most of the material written on the subject is nonsense. There was a guy once saying gold was going to 50,000 bucks! LOL.....it will be lucky to break 2400 dollars at the top of its next bull market.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:49pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Two burning questions

    Posed by Clif High on twitter, but I have wondered these things myself:

    1) When will Antarctica get infected?

    2) When will they stop the chemtrails?

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 1:55pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Waving at you from eastern Oregon

    Hi, , Matt I wonder if mullein would grow here in sagebrush country.  Might give it a try.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:02pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1206

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    I have to hand it to you Nairobi

    You are absolutely masterful at crafting a narrative, and I honestly don't have the time, nor the disposition to continue arguing with you... because you just have too much energy to put into your manipulation of words and ideas.  As always, and as taught by Chris, everyone should be thinking for themselves.

    1)  I mentioned Gold in other currencies - if you read the link I posted, you will see that Gold has reached all time highs in many major currencies within the last year.  You bring up the Kenya.  Well done!

    2)  The entire point of my post regards physical supply vs demand, worldwide.  You don't have to be a genius to realize that, regardless of the dollar going up or down, at some point the dollar price of Gold could move up at the same time the dollar is strengthening.  You make it seem like Gold can only go down if the dollar goes up.. and this is not the case at all.  Gold is a separate commodity - the relative strength of the dollar is but one input variable to the pricing equation any way you slice it.  Again, nice try!

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:04pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Ah forgot to watch the news

    State news said deaths increased by +8 to 20 now. They emphasize that all deaths where people between 59 to 94 (that means a 59 year old died) with preexisting conditions. Clear panic management.

    The number of infections increased by +176 to 1135. However, interestingly the GGD estimates 6000 infections. They do specifically mention "Because not everybody is being tested, we can only guess the total amount of infections".

    I gotta say. Even though i'm very well aware of double speak it still amazes me when it happens. They are *actually* using the fact that not everybody is being tested as an excuse to lowball the estimate of infections.

    When it should be an outrage of "why in the hell isn't everybody being tested so we know?!"

    Edit: oh i also forgot to mention. They ended up closing the schools anyway because of a MASSIVE outcry by the population. It's clear they're tired of their approach and care more about safety then money, regardless of what the news says.

    These snakes are defined by their actions and they just got pushed to their knees. Good.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:07pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    That's fine Jim, I can't teach you anything new

    I am a technician Jim. Gold is going down until the fall and the drop will surprise everyone by its severity. Same with silver. If you don't like to hear that then the problems are not with the analysis.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:09pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    JUST IN - emergency cut and $700B QE

    Anybody wanna take bets on when they'll cut to negative?

    As well as double the size of that QE5? $700 billion looks like alot but again. US deficit this year already was $1000 billion, it has now increased, with less takers then ever before.

    Futures are gonna swing wildly on this. I was waiting until futures opened to do a prediction anyway but now ima wait a lil bit more. I think it's woefully inadequate. But it might be a while before the market follows me on that one.

    Just to remind everybody: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program

    Full take on ZH:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-panics-powell-cuts-rates-zero-announces-700bn-qe5-unveils-enhanced-global-swap-lines

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:21pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Thanks Desogames

    Thanks Deso, lets see if that turns things around. Futures were already predicted to fall substantially and I still think they could. But that's a big stimulus so we can only wait and find out now how the vamps feel about it. Otherwise we are still going down to target (which is about the .382 Fibo on the DOW) and will get the reversal starting Tuesday night. Targets that go unmet are always live so even if they dodge this decline its still going to remain in play.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:25pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    just cause

    Just cause we can disagree on metal don't mean we have to disagree on everything.

    In fact i think we can both agree it's a total joke VIX goes down on days stock market goes up. If it was a measure of volatility, you'd think when the price swings wildly downwards *and* upwards you'd see moves up in the VIX on both occasions.

    I wouldn't touch the open today with a 20 foot pole. 10 minutes after though we'll have an answer.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:33pm

    Ejh237

    Ejh237

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    Joined: Oct 16 2011

    Posts: 33

    1

    Maybe this is what it takes to get people to

    WELL WORTH the 3:17

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:38pm

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 122

    0

    Rates hit Zero as physical PM shipments delayed...I'm sure it will get better

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:41pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1206

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    LOLOLOLOLOLOL.. the orgy of money printing has restarted. Deflation never had a chance.

    LOLOLOLOLOL.  1.00 % cut all at once?  Has this ever happened before?

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:49pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    After reading the full take

    That's what i love about humans. Oblivious to double edged swords. Well, the incompetent ones anyway. From the Fed's statement:

    The largest firms have $1.3 trillion in common equity and hold $2.9 trillion in high quality liquid assets.

    Obviously, they say this to calm the markets. "Don't worry, there is enough supply available".

    But in their hubris of thinking the true amount would calm people, they forget their place and show their hand.

    $2,9 trillion in "high quality liquid assets". So not cash. It may include cash. But not just cash. Otherwise, they'd say cash. You know what is reassuring to people in times like this? Straight talk. You know when they can't give straight talk? When the straight talk says No.

    Question is then.....what assets?

    Treasuries? They're considered highly liquid, after all, the 10 year is the safest asset on the planet. Isn't it?

    You're not going to convince me during a bond crisis with crashing rates that "banks have bonds" is very reassuring.

    That's the first problem laid bare. What assets.

    The second is the simple amount of it. $2,9 trillion is nothing.
    (good god i think there's a Rule 34 on the internet concerning charts and the economy. Literally everything is a google away if you know the right keywords).

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_banks_total_deposits

    So what the Fed is actually saying, that *at most*, banks have $4.2 trillion of that number. IF they can sell all their "highly liquid assets" at face value in a liquidity crisis for the only true liquidity, cash.

    And that number is for way more then just deposits. It'll have to cover Writedowns on Bad Assets too. That's the real killer. Remember AIG had to be bailed out purely because of writedowns.

    and the problem is LARGER now! cause we're even MORE levered up!

    Nothing but that small quote matters in the whole statement. We now know the "dry powder" that the biggest banks in wall street have , and it is so very, very, little. QE5 was expected, zero rates where expected, hell even negative rates are already expected, the fed has done nothing but print, so printing's not exciting anymore. But to learn what the banks can throw at this.....

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/balance-sheet/

    Notice the fine print that says "all numbers in thousands". JP morgan alone has $2,4 trillion dollar in liabilities. They actually added $190 billion in liabilities since 2016.

    I'm still completely game on for a full blown banking crisis. This is far far far from over.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 2:58pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 462

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    Trump trying to secure exclusive USA vaccine access?!?

    According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”.

    Not sure if this article was posted yet:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 3:04pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Posts: 210

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    And there it is.

    Futures gapped lower now crashing even further. -3.45% on nasdaq.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 3:07pm

    alanrgreenland

    alanrgreenland

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    Joined: Nov 07 2010

    Posts: 57

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    All Restaurants and Bars to Close in Illinois

    "All bars and restaurants in Illinois must close to dine-in customers from the end of business Monday night through March 30, Governor JB Pritzker ordered Sunday, due to concerns about the spread of COVID-19."

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/all-bars-restaurants-to-be-closed-to-dine-in-customers-in-illinois-due-to-covid-19-concerns/

    Panic buying in the grocery stores began in earnest here on Thursday (Chicago suburbs).  Friday was worse, according to a friend (I haven't left the house since I got home Thursday night).  This news will likely spark a second wave of panic buying.  Glad I got my preps done in advance (though, of course, there are still a couple of things I'd like to top off -- not enough to go out, however!).  I will go vote Tuesday; may stop by the store on my way back (but maybe not).  Also may try to go to the bank.  But otherwise, I think we are in for the duration.  Good luck, everybody!

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 3:11pm

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2081

    0

    Possible worst case scenarios and interesting questions for you to answer now

    https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/03/a-chilling-scenario-and-some-valid-questions/

    So here’s the scenario and a few questions. Your neighborhood is quarantined and has been for two weeks. Some guys in Hazmat suits show up and start down your street in a couple humvees along with what appears to be an escort of 4 armed soldiers in MOPP4 protective gear.

    They start at your neighbor’s house across the street and have everyone in that household take, what appears to be, some type of mouth swab test. A young adult male (your neighbor’s adult Son) apparently tests positive and a Hazmat suit tells two soldiers to take him to the waiting military bus. The Dad asks where they are taking his Son and “Hazmat” says, “To the Medical Camp for observation.” but will give no more information when asked again.

    The boy struggles and a soldier buttstrokes him with a rifle, knocking him out. The Dad pulls out a pistol and starts by shooting the soldier who grabbed his boy, then he pops the less than helpful, “Hazmat”. Another soldier drops Dad with two shots to the chest. Knowing they are coming to your house once they get through the other three in the cul de sac, and your Wife has been under the weather for two days, what do you do?

    1. Do you wait till they get there, and let them take your Wife away if she tests positive? They are there to “Help”…..right?
    2. Do you try to rush her out the back door to safety, and hope they don’t notice, or worse yet, have a contingent of soldiers waiting for just that kind of action behind your homes? Do you have children or others you are responsible for in the home? Have you already scouted out and planned a concealed way to get away from your house undetected?
    3. Do you go on the offensive by yourself and ambush the group which has shown hostility and used deadly force against a neighbor? Do you have firearms skills and the training to use them in a tactical environment?
    4. Do you get in your vehicle and try to force your way out of the neighborhood? Do you know how to use your vehicle as a “battering ram” without dead-lining it right after you perform the task?
    5. Do you get on your radio (Cell service and internet went dead about an hour before the “Hazmats” showed up) and call some Buddies, in another part of the development, for help? Do you have alternative communications for WHEN the cell and internet is interrupted and an accompanying commo plan with like-minded, tactically proficient, FRIENDS in proximity to where you live?

    Can the above scenario happen? Sure can. Will it happen in the non permissive environment which we could be quickly approaching? No clue, but I sure hope not. What I do know is this, government stooges, especially bureaucrats, tend to get heavy handed when they are tasked with a job and given too much unchecked, authority and “broad brush”, autonomy....

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 3:18pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    Well now we have our answer.

    Gold up 3,5%, silver up 2%, EUR up 0,64%, if the VIX was open it'd be up, and everything is down. Brent is down -6% and Nasdaq futures now -4,18% sliding towards limit down.

    It's a perfect sell signal and a slaughter. Today is *not* going to be pretty.

    Addendum: And that's 30 minutes after it was announced:
    - 1% rate cut to 0% rates
    - $700 billion in QE5
    - Swap rates coordination
    - Still ongoing $500 billion in repo.


    (yes i did post that before market open but after QE announcement).

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 3:27pm

    Tim Puffer

    Tim Puffer

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    Cash at Bank

    Given what's going on with the banking system does it make sense to pull all cash out? I have been slowly doing this for a few months just in case SHTF, but maybe I should take the rest out.

    Any opinion on that?

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 3:32pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Things going fast now.

    Another report of banks running out of cash. One report is a rumor, two seperate reports of seperate sources is a Persistant Rumor. That's exactly how the stuff from the virus got started that ended up true.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-frenzy-rich-are-making-run-banks-hamptons

    Remember it's always somewhere local that runs out first. That gets resupplied from it's neighbors. Who then run out. Who get centrally resupplied. When those requests overwhelm the system, it's a bank run and you're screwed if you're left holding the bag.

    I'd advise everybody to get their savings out of the system TODAY. If not partially, then fully. Switch to current account mode only.

    I'd rather dunk bills in bleachwater then hold it in the sick puppy that is the banking system from this point onward.

    EDIT: THAT INCLUDES SAFETY DEPOSIT BOXES!

    those are on the bank's balance sheet. If they fail, those get confiscated and "fair value" reimbursed in cash via an insurer. That may or may not have gone bankrupt. So even, or especially, if you've got items of emotional value in there, get em out now.

    Don't be frightened by the idea you're making the wrong choice because the exit is still big. I'm sure there are a lot of people who owned levered up ETFs who are wishing they made the same call right now.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 4:10pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    On safely storing physical assets.

    Now that i've said get out i think it'd be nice to give some advice on what to do outside of the banking system. I'll only say exactly what i've done myself as that'd be the advice i'm most comfortable giving. Atleast if you go down we go down together 😀

    There's essentially a 2 step security involved.

    1. A safe at home. A small, private safe, doesn't have to be expensive. Say, $300-$400? Those are usually insured for about 5k in jewelry and 5k in cash. Always useful to have, also for a place to store backups on a external drive. Bolt it to the floor and/or wall. Has to be heavy to lift minimum don't go for those small cash boxes i can smash with my foot.

    The idea of that safe is *not* to store your entire net worth. The point is to store the access to your net worth as well as your access to your "Current account". Make sure there's always enough cash in the safe to pay for the 2nd step as well survive a prolonged shutdown of the 2nd step.

    The idea of that private safe is to always store so little value in there that it's not worth for thieves of opportunity to steal anything. The vast majority of thieves wanna get in and out quick. They will leave the safe alone to grab the TV, especially in a world where TVs from Asia are no longer imported because of lock downs. If it's a small safe, they won't bother, they will grab a higher ROI item and just break into some other home later/tomorrow.

    2. A box from a private precious metal storage company in your local area.
    There's been a boom in this business since the 2008 crash, because surprise, not alotta people trust banks any more. There are many companies across the country (Atleast in the Netherlands there are) who offer local safe storage.

    The unique thing about these companies is, they do not own nor lay claim to the inside of your storage box. If you can't pay, you can't access, but as long as you do, you will continue to own whats in the safe even if the company goes bankrupt and gets taken over. Legally and Financially, whatever is inside is yours. You will even need to take pictures and prove whats inside the safe yourself, because the company specifically doesn't know as part of the deal (so if it is robbed and you can't prove what was in the safe you won't get it back. A photo will do. Which you keep on digital backup in your own private safe as well as other Data backup locations).

    My gold, silver and some cash savings are in the private company box. I've got a small supply of silver coins and cash in my private safe for the just in case scenarios, as well as the spare key (damn thing costs 300 euro if i lose it, most expensive keys ever!). I'm not worried though because the private company *requires* ID to enter the vault at all, and i get an email whenever somebody accesses my stash. To which only i have access to, though i'm allowed one co-owner and visitor to the box.

    I paid 227 euro i think cause the box was on sale when i opened an account (so i get a permanently cheap contract, yay). Obviously, this setup counts as a "safe haven" status, so expect an uptick in demand for private storage just like this (even here, it's as long as supplies last).

    Might seem alot, 227 euros a year for storage. But then again my 10k in my savings account accrued a whopping 3 euros in 2019. The 2% inflation the ECB is aiming for is 200 on an amount of 10k already. So keeping cash in the bank already was costing me 197 euros a year. And that was before they lowered it to 0,01%. And it's definitely not gonna go up now!

    And before anybody criticizes my setup. It is not built to be full proof. Especially not. It's built to deter humans. If humans see a giant safe, they're gonna think something's in it. They'll go get their buddies and come back. If they see a small safe that can't possibly have alot inside cause it's not insured for that much, they will leave it alone. Too much hassle too much time too little gain. Quarantine doesn't make this any better.

    The trick is to drop the thief's ROI on his time getting valuables down to the point he won't consider the safe without actually relying on it to store a lot of valuables in there, on the off chance the crazy sonofabitch decides to come back with a crowbar and a mean streak. If he has to spend 1 hour on a safe with 5k max inside, or 5 minutes on a $1000 TV, he'll pick the TV every time. Remember; even if he pries it off the wall you still gotta open the damn thing. Many of these things have a drop rating to survive a fall from multiple stories exactly for this reason. Thieves don't like noise, effort or a chance to get caught.

    I *have* thought about what to do with my off-site storage in case of this pandemic. On the one hand; if the city is quarantined, i can't access my savings. On the other hand it won't go anywhere and i have nowhere to spend it anyway. Government confiscation during quarantine is the only real worry, but how do they know what is in my safe where? Nobody knows. It's a black box. If i don't take a picture nobody knows the contents of my safe. The company only asked a general questions for insurance reasons; they don't *actually* know whats inside. Especially not because i have a tenancy to walk in and out there with a big heavy bag, regardless of whether or not i pick something up (Well i didn't come this far to stop being paranoid, yknow).

    So i've concluded to let it be. Even if the company goes bankrupt, the contents of the safe are mine and they are non-perishable anyway. The only real danger is not being able to sell whats inside in time to position myself for the next crisis.

    But i think i made that bed when i went physical last december. I just hope it's still comfy to lie in in 2022.

    But hey! What's life without a little spice huh?! I've already taken far more steps to protect my wealth then other people have (Talkin bout them grandpas listening to their brokers and buy the dip on their pensions). Even if my plan fails... well i've seen some real happy real broke Africans on the TV in my day so even poverty is not the end 😀 At least i'll be able to sleep at night knowing i gave it my best shot 🙂

    Fun Fact to end a long post with: What i described above, is a bank! Banks got their start as gold storage facilities in Italy in the 1500s, owned by wealthy merchants who had excess storage capacity on private vaults.

    Over time these merchants noticed that while people where happy to store their gold and pay for storage, they hardly ever took their gold or savings out. It was just sitting there in the vault for perpetuity.

    So they decided to lend out gold that wasn't theirs, since it was never collected anyway. And since gold is gold, if somebody wanted to redeem some, they just gave some from the pile. This was the birth of Fractional Reserve Banking. Because the bank only had a fraction of the gold it owed customers in its vaults. Also bank runs never occurred before this fact.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 4:46pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    JMBullion delivery delays, increases minimum buy amount

    JMBullion announces 5-10+ days delay on deliveries of precious metals and increases minimum purchase amount to $299. They say demand is 3-5x normal with "strains" upon supply chains, including sold-out US Mint American Silver Eagles.

    https://www.jmbullion.com/jm-bullion-update-3-13-20/

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 4:54pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    Mike Maloney, G&S.com on bullion shortages, rate cut (video)

    "Gold and Silver Shortages, Rate Cuts Coming. Oops, they're here!"

    video:  https://youtu.be/T62x1vqn0Aw

    GoldandSilver.com site/newsletter with video embedded:

    https://goldsilver.com/blog/bullion-shortages-coming-gold-silver-update/?utm_campaign=20200315_Mike_Maloney_Evening_Update&utm_content=touchpoint_1_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zaius

     

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 5:26pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

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    What the heck is 700 Billion Gonna Do?

    So the fed reduced interest rates and is giving banks another 700 billion.  How is that going to help Molly, a waitress who just lost her job because of reduced patronage of the restaurant she works at?  Or, Joe who sells tractors.  Or Sam who works at a rock gym.  All now have no jobs.  But hey, the banks are happy.

    Hello, hello, any sane person in high places out there?

    Stunned Granny

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 6:07pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

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    Silver / Credit cards / savings

    Last thoughts on silver:  I am sad to say I do not think silver will go up until JP Morgan wants it to.  Also, this is a rumor, but supposedly, derivatives have been written that will fail if silver rises above $20/oz.  Time will tell.

    Credit card: Wow, do you think my bank will lower my loan rate now?  Buuwwaaaahaha!

    Bank savings: If you are going to max out your card be sure it is with a different bank than where you hold any assets.  I am torn between wanting some cash in the bank to write a check for bills, in case the credit card is cancelled and keeping the card balance low so I can just pay bills on line or over the phone so I don't have to deal with mailing a check.  I know, I know ... but I am not of the smart phone generation.  Balance, balance ...

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 6:08pm

    MQ

    MQ

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    Facebook Sucks, yeah, but...

    Agreed, but as a member of a very large group of family and friends, it is worth dipping on occasion to see what everyone is up to. Back in the day, I used to email, but the time needed to do that meant nothing else happened, But--a PP page on FB--No, a thousand times No.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 6:59pm

    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1329

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    one of the few things Facebook is good for - rare wildlife photos in the midst of crisis

    I don't do much wildlife photography, so I was super excited to get these shots. They're thought to be nearly extinct....

    Posted by Anne Sampson on Thursday, March 12, 2020

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 8:12pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Don't worry about credit cards closing accounts, that market will be expanding.

    One of the areas of expansion in the coming months and years will be private credit. Small lenders, credit cards and payday lending will all take off for the moon as conventional bank lending tightens. The problem is that bigger established banks will be a lot more careful with credit risk so the opportunity to lend will shift substantially to smaller more mobile firms but with much higher costs to compensate for risk. Something that we have not seen in years will start to make a comeback and that is companies offering to do second and third loan financing on homes. When really easy credit was flowing, the need for private lenders for those kinds of mortgages dropped off. Private sales, renting to buy and owner financing hav also substantially vanished but will make a return as bonds fall, credit tightens and private lending rates rise. It may not make sense at first when you hear that the Fed Funds Rate is zero but keep in mind the FFR is not the rate ordinary people can access. What matters is the real world rates that you will need to pay to borrow and these could rise dramatically.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 9:04pm

    Travis Schmitt

    Travis Schmitt

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    Joined: Feb 23 2020

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    When to pull the plug?

    I’m a 51 year old dentist in rural Minnesota, and own my practice.  My dilemma is an obligation to my patients, my staff and financial.  No work, no money.

    Patients need care.  Staff need to work.

    I should close my practice til this blows over, but I must admit that I feel very conflicted.

    no known cases are here currently....so would you advise closing ASAP or Try to finish up the active cases and then close.

    Financially going to hurt pretty bad.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 9:31pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Just Stop! Now!

    Except for emergency situations, everyone needs to go into 14 day lock down, Right NOW.  Everyone wants to play "Let's make a deal" with this HB virus.  As it clamps onto your hand and gnaws it off at the elbow.   These stages of grief are going to be a bi##h.  It's all over but the screaming.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 10:27pm

    MarkM

    MarkM

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    Joined: Jul 22 2008

    Posts: 421

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    I already did

    Last Thursday. Gave two weeks pay. One staff texted me today thanking me for being proactive. Is it going to hurt? Like a bitch. The alternative is worse.

    Figuring out how to close active cases.

    Live to fight another day.

    Time is critical.

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  • Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 11:50pm

    LeftCoaster

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    RE: when to Pull the Plug

    To: Travis & anyone else who has their own business, with employees.

    I just had this very conversation with a friend today, who is a doc with a practice split between being an independent contractor & having his own offices.  He seemed to be worrying about his employees.  Since the type of treatments he does, are hands on, person to person, I think he has a great exposure to risk & told him so. I then reminded him, that not to be insensitive, but if he dies, his employees will have no job security and if he gets sick, they won't have any either.  So, if it were me, I would close my practice down, except for extreme emergences. As a retired nurse myself, I can appreciate having concern for others.  But here is another thing to consider. Once this virus runs its insane course & we either get herd immunity or a vaccine, people will still need dentists. and you know what? There may be less of them, on the other side, due to disability & deaths, related to the virus. Meaning, your skills and the service you are able to provide, will be needed even more . So, do what you can to support yourself, in the meantime, and plan on staying alive to serve, when this insanity calms down.  You do not have to be a martyr for the cause.

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  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:39am

    Barbara

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    Shout out to my Credit Unions-nice to see somebody's on it

    We've talked about the safety our our banks and brokerage accounts.  I have an observation about my local credit unions here in the midwest.
    Heartland CU over the weekend decided to open only with drive-through.  They were also the first last week when WI cases jumped to acknowledge the problem and send a warning to their elderly rural customers to read the CDC guidelines.  I called the local branch to recommend they use gloves and wipe down equipment.  Phones were on the fritz so it rang to corporate.  I asked the young man to pass on my thanks for their decision and recommended gloves.  His response - great idea, I'll talk to management.

    My WI credit union with my business account UW CU, was quick to follow Heartland last week with a notice to customers.  People pay more attention to their banks than the politicians.
    My TX Credit union, Premier (CA HDQ) also sent a notice last week.

    I got all these notices before I heard anything on Covid from either my commercial banks or my brokerages.  In fact, most appear to be ignoring it.

    There was a question about safety deposit boxes.  I'm pretty sure if I needed something from one at the CU, they would figure out how to do it.  Unfortunately mine is at a TX branch of a commercial bank.  May turn out to be a mistake.

    Some of you may think they should do a complete shutdown, but the rural branches have unsophisticated members that don't do on-line banking.  This is probably the best they can do in an area not yet a hot spot.  The only thing I might do differently [and maybe they have] is to figure out extra protection for their at-risk employees.  Work from home or in the small branch alone, which they NEVER do - time to rethink that.

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  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 9:54am

    Wandering

    Wandering

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    Flattening the curve is a great idea and the basis

    This article and your posting of it is really important for people to understand.  The math behind flattening the curve as used has been told by the creator of the origninal graph as being 'not there'  The math is possible through using peak flood (as in water) dampening from Water Management.  Common stuff in flood management.  But instead of water units, use units of beds or respirators or whatever needs to be dampened.  I am trying to figure out how to get this moved up in the threads as it took me over an hour to find your post.  Lost in the deluge.

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