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    Coronavirus: What We Can Say Publicly & What We Can’t

    Why the line between the two is so important to us
    by Chris Martenson

    Wednesday, February 5, 2020, 9:17 PM

An Important Note of Gratitude:

Before we dive in, we’d like to extend a huge ‘thank you!’ to everyone who has supported us through the years.  It’s chaotic times like now when Adam and I do what we do best: surfing breaking developments and distilling the key information down into easily-understandable, actionable insights.

But we wouldn’t be able to be here without your ongoing economic support.  Even more important has been your words of personal support and encouragement. 

So thank you everyone, both our dedicated long-time followers, and the many new premium subscribers who have joined over the past two weeks. 

It’s Time…

If you’ve been watching our Youtube video series on the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019nCoV) pandemic, you know that it’s time to prepare.

Yes, we can always hope that the latest unconfirmed potential treatment marks an actual turning point (i.e. treating patients with HIV protease inhibitor drugs) . But it’s much better to be safe than sorry.

You’re probably reading this because you tend to think critically, and you trust your own judgment.  Weirdly, that sets you apart from the masses.

And so here you are.  Not because you’re weird, but because it’s weird that common sense and prudent caution are so uncommon.

For a whole host of reasons that extend well beyond this emerging pandemic, we think being prepared is a selfless and prudent thing to do.  Everyone should seek to be as resilient as possible. Our book Prosper! covers this in much greater detail. It encourages readers to build capital.

Yes, build up your financial capital. But don’t ignore social, knowledge, time, material, living, cultural and emotional capital.  If you have depth in each of these, you will be truly wealthy, happy and fulfilled — no matter what the universe throws your way.

A pandemic is a hard kick in the pants that will propel many people to finally begin preparing. If you’re one of them, don’t ignore this important call to action.

For those who are already in good shape — Congratulations! Use this opportunity to re-evaluate your planning, inventory your preps, and then improve upon both if needed.

What We Can Say Publicly & What We Can’t

As with our coverage of the Fukushima nuclear disaster back in 2011, we believe it is our duty to make our gifts of sleuthing, clarifying, and decoding freely available to the world.  That’s what we’ve done in the past, and we’re doing it in spades now — releasing at least one video every day for the past 13 days, keeping the public updated on the evolving coronavirus threat.

But there’s certain content that we cannot put out into the public realm.

Some of it can put a target on our back for the media to use in accusing us of being “alarmists” or “fearmongers”.

Other content may not be sufficiently proven, but we feel is important to consider and monitor as more data comes in.  But it’s too half-baked to put out to a public audience where some folks might accept it as gospel simply because we shared it.

Often, we just go deeper into a subject than the general public has any interest in going. But our insight-hungry subscribers value this greatly. One thing Peak Prosperity subscribers share in common is that we’re all curious, committed life-long learners.

Cutting to the chase: subscriptions are how Adam and I support and run this site.  Without our premium subscribers there would be no site at all.

Google is a monopoly and shares less and less advertising revenue with the content creators that use its platform. The advertising check Peak Prosperity receives are really so tiny as to be laughable.  There’s no possible way to support this site via ad revenue.  If we relied on ad revenue — of which the monthly check could buy us a nice dinner and little else — this would become a hobby site. Adam and I would have to earn a living other ways, and maybe write a single article once of twice as month as we could get to it. The PeakProsperity.com experience would be vastly different from the daily publishing programming we have, not to mention the even more valuable vibrant community of intelligent thinkers that is fostered here.

I feel odd having to spell this out. But you’d be surprised how many people decry that we have a revenue model that funds this site’s existence.  Some of these critics are journalists, too; which is odd to me, because they’re in the same business —  except a parent company cuts their paycheck.

Denying Ammunition To The Haters

In fast-moving situations like the coronavirus outbreak, the unknowns outweigh the knowns.  Quite often the most useful and most actionable material is in the ‘unknowns.’

This is where our super-power comes into play: sifting through vast piles of snippets and fragments and assembling them into a coherent (if still incomplete) picture.  One with actionable insights to help you make important life decisions.

Sometimes we simply have to avoid handing weapons to our enemies.  Early, fast-changing information can (and often is) taken out of context to try to “shoot the messenger”.  Throughout this pandemic so far, the vast majority of attention we’ve gotten from the established media has accused us of whipping up fear or being opportunists.

Not a single one of these critics has yet sought to engage in debate on the data we’ve provided in any of our writings or videos to argue “here’s something you got wrong.”

Why not?  Because they have no interest in whether we have the facts right or wrong.

Instead, they’re interested in pushing a narrative that says “don’t worry, everything is just fine”. In their eyes, our sin is that we happen to think some of the facts ARE indeed worrying. Or at least too important to simply take on faith.  It’s the oldest trick in the book – when you can’t beat the message, attack the messenger.

Just last night, my Wikipedia page, up for more than a decade, was deleted by Wikipedia’s editors.  I guess if you feel that shooting the messenger isn’t enough, try to expunge him from history.

Again, this is all just part of the territory.  Like the trolls who sometimes show up in this site’s comments section, armed with the latest talking points (“no worse than the flu!”) and seeking to swamp or derail the conversation.

Behind our paywall, there are no trolls.  Well, maybe once in a blue moon, but we have a rapid and inspiring tribal antibody response that detects and ejects such entrants, so they don’t last long.  Which means we’re free to engage in very open and intelligent wide-ranging conversations.

In our brand new report for our premium subscribers, Adam and I share our own personal preparations for the coronavirus which — for reasons of not arming our critics with more ammunition for  “fear mongering” charges, and for our family’s personal safety, and given the fact that what works for us may not be appropriate for everyone — are not things we’re willing to broadcast to the public.

Finally, we’ve learned that when we recommend specific actions that can have an actual impact on supplies, we shoulder an ethical responsibility.  We trust our subscribers to avoid hoarding and be otherwise responsible in their purchases, only securing what they need and thereby also being in position to support others should things become dicey.

On that note, let’s review this passage from our book Prosper! because it’s important framing for everything that comes next:

Selfless Not Selfish

Another objection we hear to the prospect of preparing and becoming more resilient is that those actions could be seen as being selfish. Instead we see them as being selfless. Those who are not prepared when an emergency strikes are a drain on critical resources, while those who are prepared can be of assistance.

To be among those who can be in a position to render assistance, or at least need none of their own, means that your prior acts of preparation have selflessly removed you from the minus column and placed you on the plus side.

The first steps towards preparedness usually involve addressing your own needs or those of your loved ones, but many people then go beyond that and prepare for others who may not be able to do so, or have not done so, or maybe even will not do so.

But let us put an important qualifier on that; preparing before a crisis hits is responsible and selfless, but trying to accumulate necessary items during a crisis is an act of hoarding. We do not and never will advocate hoarding. Responsible preparations begin long before any trouble appears. Anything else stands a good chance of making things worse, not better.

The news has been full of stories of how people behave when scarcity strikes and they are generally not pretty. People in Boston fought over bottled water just hours after a water main broke in 2010. Nasty fights, too. In Venezuela, as of the writing of this book, desperate people are attempting to buy anything and everything that might remain in the stores as their national currency devalues by the day. This is bringing forth all sorts of government-mandated counter measures that make it impossible for many families to buy essential items.

We mentioned earlier that time may well be your most valuable asset in becoming resilient. Be aware that many things that are easily available now may be difficult to obtain later. Now, before any big crises have hit, it’s very easy to pick up the phone, or click a mouse button, and have the big brown truck of happiness roll up to your doorstep a few days later. Everything you could ever want to buy is currently available and stores are abundantly stocked in most countries. However, we can imagine a large number of possible futures where such easy access to consumer goods and desired items is either much more difficult or impossible.

The Time To Prepare Is *NOW*

It’s time to begin preparing.  Well, honestly, given the demonstrated threat of the Wuhan coronavirus, it’s past time — which means it’s time to begin preparing responsibly (no hoarding of items already in short supply like face masks, please).

This is especially true if you live in a country with substandard health care or a weak hospital infrastructure.

There’s room for hope that this pandemic will be limited by aggressive containment efforts. A vaccine at some point is highly likely.

But there’s no guarantee either will happen. Or even if they do, that help will arrive before the virus hits your community.

The odds of the virus threat are more than sufficient to cause me to take prudent defensible precautions now, to follow the developing news like a hawk, and to advise people to prepare today should they soon need to remain at home for days to weeks during an outbreak.

In this new report for our premium subscribers, How We’re Personally Preparing Against The Coronavirus, Adam and I share the steps we’re taking to protect our own families.

We cover both what we’re prioritizing BEFORE the virus hits our towns, and what we plan to do AFTER it does.

For those who choose not to subscribe, for whatever reason, that’s fine. We’ll continue our daily work here scouring the world of news for you and issuing as many videos, articles and podcasts as we can to distill the key insights we feel are most important for you to know about this swiftly-unfolding situation.

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

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332 Comments

  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:59pm

    #1

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    14

    Thank You

    Somehow I've ended up being first to comment three times now Chris. I will go the way of few words and say just...thank you.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:55pm

    #2
    Monakha

    Monakha

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 7

    0

    What do you make of this video? Is this all made up? If so are we safer since we might also have the cure in US?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bYDchu4Gho

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:28am

    #3
    Shubug

    Shubug

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 05 2016

    Posts: 9

    8

    Another of Chris’ conspiracy comrades

    Interview with a professor in pub health who’s the vice dean at Imperial and specialises in infectious disease spread

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:43am

    #4
    robsama

    robsama

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2013

    Posts: 1

    5

    Real Wuhan Data Leaked 24,589 Deaths!

    Thought this was important to get to you Chris:

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:05am

    #5

    Alex Earle

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 14 2015

    Posts: 14

    6

    LOL

    Duct Tape is a good look for you, Chris.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:08am

    #6
    SafeinNH1952

    SafeinNH1952

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 5

    1

    Another Source for Higher Death Numbers

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-chinas-tencent-accidentally-leak-true-terrifying-coronavirus-statistics

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:45am

    #7
    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    10

    Keep it up Chris and Adam!

    You're doing a great job preparing the unprepared for this crisis! I wish everybody could be saved, but as the old adage goes, You can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. The more we fight the more we save.

    None of my European friends think this is a big deal. I keep telling them; the virus is not the danger everybody moving at the same time is. Luckily my friend from Hong Kong listened in time and got plenty of supplies to survive a lock down. 20KGs of rice will keep him and his family alive.

    And in case anybody is wondering, i don't expect the supply of rice to be the problem. The Guard he came across when going to his house in Shenzhen to pick up his computers before the Hong Kong border lock down, checking/preventing people from leaving, that's the problem.

    Meanwhile i'd ask to share a few thoughts on the coming Economic collapse as well. Sure the virus is important, but it might very well be that people can't afford supplies before they even have to buy them:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3049113/coronavirus-touchless-food-orders-closed-communities-life-one

    The reason i link that is because that's about a 3 million population city called Handan. Handan is in Hebei province, 800km north of Wuhan. Hebei has, at the time of writing, a whopping 157 confirmed cases, with 1 death and 14 recovered. And it looks like a freaking ghost town.

    As i've been saying to my friends.... Regardless of what the virus does, this is already an economic disaster of epic proportions. If the virus doesn't get us a stock market crash will.

    But i'm afraid i've got even less of a reputation then this site so who the hell listens to me right....

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 8:35am

    #8

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1

    Infectious disease expert says we're 'ill-prepared' for coronavirus

    220 More Schools in S. Korea Closed Amid Coronavirus Scare
    The most notable increase was in Gwangju, where 158 kindergartens closed after two people in the southwestern city, a 42-year-old South Korean woman and her daughter, were diagnosed with the respiratory disease.

    Seoul saw the additional closing of 58 schools, including 22 high schools and six middle schools, mainly in the northwestern Jungnang and Seongbuk districts, which ordered one-week shutdown measures on Wednesday.

    http://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&Seq_Code=151151

    ===================================

    HOT TAKE

    Coronavirus tests U.S. medical system's unhealthy reliance on China for drugs, supplies

    Everything from antibiotics to chemotherapy drugs, from antidepressants to Alzheimer’s medications to treatments for HIV/AIDS, are frequently produced by Chinese manufacturers. What’s more, the most effective breathing masks and the bulk of other personal protective equipment — key to containing the spread of coronavirus and protecting health care workers — and even the basic syringe are largely made in China. The basic building blocks of U.S. health care are now under Xi’s control.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/coronavirus-tests-u-s-medical-system-s-unhealthy-reliance-china-ncna1131211

    =======================================
    Disney Could Take $280 Million Hit From Its Chinese Parks Because of Coronavirus
    https://ktla.com/2020/02/05/disney-could-take-a-280-million-hit-from-its-chinese-parks-because-of-the-coronavirus/

    =============================================
    AI Predicts Coronavirus Could Infect 2.5 Billion And Kill 53 Million. Doctors Say That’s Not Credible, And Here’s Why
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/02/05/ai-predicts-coronavirus-could-infect-25b-and-kill-53m-doctors-say-thats-not-credible-and-heres-why/#293114e511cd

    ===================================

     

     
    Coronavirus to Deal a Blow to Japan’s GDP Due to Fewer Chinese Visitors
    If the epidemic is not halted, it will have a huge effect on production by Japanese companies as well as parts procurement. If this supply chain disruption spreads to other areas in China, production will stagnate across Asia and may well lead to a slump in the world economy.

    https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00654/coronavirus-to-deal-a-blow-to-japan%E2%80%99s-gdp-due-to-fewer-chinese-visitors.html

    ==========================
    Australia economy to take 'significant' hit from coronavirus: Morrison
    The hit to Australia’s economy from a viral epidemic spreading from China is likely to be “significant”, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Thursday, as the country’s states and territories work out scenarios to gauge the overall impact.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-australia-economy/australia-economy-to-take-significant-hit-from-coronavirus-morrison-idUSKBN200069

    ==============================

    Infectious disease expert says we're 'ill-prepared' for coronavirus

    https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/infectious-disease-expert-says-were-ill-prepared-for-coronavirus/89-0d9d99c5-24f7-4128-ae9a-6687f9a138dd

    ===========================
    Coronavirus wreaking havoc on electronics industry: Apple, Nintendo and more
    https://www.tomsguide.com/news/the-coronavirus-is-wreaking-havoc-on-the-electronics-industry

    ===========================
    Travel Bans and Quarantines Won't Stop Coronavirus
    As for the current outbreak, researchers suspect that it’s too late for travel restrictions to have any effect. A preprint—so not peer reviewed yet—by researchers in the US, France, and China says that so many people passed through the travel hub of Wuhan before the disease was officially detected that at least 128 other cities are already at higher risk of 2019-nCoV showing up there too.

    =========================================================
    Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus. Now goods are getting stranded
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/index.html

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 8:50am

    #9

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1

    Wuhan is told to round up infected residents for mass quarantine camps.

    (Scroll down)

    Wuhan is told to round up infected residents for mass quarantine camps.

    A senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals.

    Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.

    “Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

    They line up at hospitals overwhelmed by a virus that most had not heard of until a few weeks ago.

    They line up outside pharmacies despite the door signs declaring they have sold out of protective masks, disinfectant, surgical gloves and thermometers. They line up to buy rice, fruit and vegetables from food stores that keep operating, while nearly all other shops are closed.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 8:58am

    #10
    CJRinMN

    CJRinMN

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 02 2019

    Posts: 9

    3

    MN Mainstream Media being honest

    Hi All, longtime follower, first time commenter. I joined after 2008, then let it expire and have been back for about a year. Thanks Chris and Adam for all your hard work over the years.

    I was surprised to see our local NBC affiliate webpage with a headline interview with a U of MN Infectious Disease professor that was brutally honest. Trying to stop this would be like trying to stop the flu. I also noted the link to a recent time.com op-ed.

    https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/infectious-disease-expert-says-were-ill-prepared-for-coronavirus/89-0d9d99c5-24f7-4128-ae9a-6687f9a138dd

    Keep up the good work everyone!

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 9:02am

    DLWELD

    DLWELD

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2015

    Posts: 15

    9

    Round up for quarantine camps

    Sun Chunlan, a vice premier...."said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts."

    Couldn't ask for a better method to spread the virus - a group going around to each and every living place asking "sick yet?"

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 9:39am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    Question About Hong Kong

    Welcome to the community Desogames. You said: "Luckily my friend from Hong Kong listened in time and got plenty of supplies to survive a lock down. 20KGs of rice will keep him and his family alive."

    Any words about what the situation in Hong Kong is, since you have a friend there?

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:06am

    #13

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    2

    Incubation Camp or Roach Motel ("You check in, but you don't check out.")

    Watch this video of China's new "Hospital". The heading is one of the comments below:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRU9rIXOG7Y

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:22am

    #14
    wheresdavid

    wheresdavid

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 14 2008

    Posts: 18

    1

    Maybe some good news about Dr, Li from the south China morning post ...

    Coronavirus: Hospital denies that Li Wenliang, doctor who alerted public to the outbreak, has died
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049411/coronavirus-li-wenliang-doctor-who-alerted-authorities-outbreak

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:27am

    #15
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    Anti Inflamitories

    Thank you, Chris, Adam and all contributors, great thoughts and info.  I am putting together a list of natural antiinflamitory remedies.   Does anyone have experience or knowledge about CBD oil?  It is legal in my state.  I have avoided it up to now because being made from hemp it is always on the feds harassment list.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 11:45am

    #16
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2011

    Posts: 149

    1

    delusion

    Can't remember who said that humans are capable of wonderful self delusion. Any body that think this a pandemic is delusional.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 12:11pm

    #17
    Holistic

    Holistic

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 5

    0

    Holistic said:

    The Coronavirus outbreak is now affecting people all over the world. It can be very nasty if you're not prepared for it. No need to panic, but you do need prepare. A few simple precautions can save you from catching it or any other viral infection going around including the flu. Holistic options are available and best for prevention as well. #coronavirus #flu #immune See:  Holistic Treatment for Coronavirus

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 12:25pm

    #18
    catherder

    catherder

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 17 2010

    Posts: 18

    5

    Stock market up? All is well! (Nazi version - 1933)

    From the WSJ which even then was highly thought of.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 12:29pm

    #19

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    3

    Wuhan could now have 300,000 coronavirus infections: Study

    Wuhan could now have 300,000 coronavirus infections: Study
    HKU study says Wuhan virus infections to 'double every 6 days'
    The authors concluded that massive quarantine efforts in Wuhan will have negligible effect on the forward trajectories of the epidemics in other cities because they have already been "seeded" with dozens of infections. The report then stated that "local epidemics are probably already growing exponentially in multiple major Chinese cities" and given the large numbers of travelers from those cities to destinations across the globe, other countries are at risk of experiencing Wuhan virus epidemics in the first half of this year.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 12:35pm

    #20
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 58

    1

    It should not be bad in the US and Europe

    There are approximately 25 countries with cases of the coronavirus. Except for a few, infected individuals traveled by plane to arrive at their respective countries, and many of the flights lasted for ten hours or more. The infected individuals sat next to one or two persons for hours, yet there is not one reported case of a fellow passenger becoming infected! Not one case has been reported. It has been more than 10 days since the infected individuals began arriving home, and fellow passengers and crew should show symptoms.
    The absence of infections requires an explanation. I have one thought on this situation. The Wuhan virus has a low R0 factor with non-Asians. If this is true, nations with a low percentage of Asians should not have an epidemic. Scientists have established that the virus invades the ACE II enzyme, and 90% Asians have this enzyme. Europeans about 50%.
    I live in Berkeley, and last week I estimated the bay area had a 10-25% probability of a widespread virus outbreak. Based on the current evidence, I now think the probability is closer to 10%. Areas in the US with a low percentage of Asians, I estimate will have a 1% probability of a significant outbreak. Because of their biological advantage and tiny Asian populations, Europeans should escape the feared pandemic.
    The coronavirus will wreak havoc in China because of its density and vulnerability of its inhabitants. Japan also is biologically vulnerable to the virus, but its cleanliness habits may prevent an outbreak of the virus. Even in normal times, it appears that 10% of the Japanese population is wearing facemasks.
    If anyone on this thread has read reports of passengers and crew getting infected on a flight from China, please post the information.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:18pm

    #21
    pcauchy

    pcauchy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 8

    1

    pcauchy said:

    So if we are to believe the official figures as of now, there have only been 93 new cases in China (28,253-28,060) in the last 24 hours but 77 so almost as many new cases worldwide (293-216)? When there were 3697 new cases in China yesterday?

    Who does the CCP think it is fooling? This really, really stinks guys. Either the CCP is very naively trying to convince its own people and the world that it has won the battle with the virus overnight or it has simply given up. Both options are equally as sinister. I am preparing for the worst.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:51pm

    pcauchy

    pcauchy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 8

    0

    pcauchy said:

    I take it back now 30600 cases

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 3:53pm

    #23
    Ben Burke

    Ben Burke

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 17 2019

    Posts: 14

    3

    HK community

    Think this stories for itself
    https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049297/coronavirus-community-outbreak-declared-hong-kong?__twitter_impression=true

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:16pm

    #24
    MTLass

    MTLass

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 4

    3

    Graphs in latest videos

    Chris, the person who came up with the graph model you’ve been showing in your videos the past few days is from the Twitter user @evdefender (it’s his pinned tweet so should be easy to track down).

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:31pm

    #25
    schmidtma01

    schmidtma01

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 29 2011

    Posts: 16

    2

    China in a State of Panic

    Check out this article posted on Mish's blog. This pretty much sums it up.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:35pm

    #26

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    2

    31,439 of which 4,824 (15%) in critical condition Deaths: 638

    of which 4,824 (15%)
    in critical condition
    Deaths:

    638

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:43pm

    #27
    LabCat

    LabCat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 28 2020

    Posts: 45

    7

    NYC?

    I don't mean to be a broken record, but I just cannot fathom how there aren't any cases in hub cities like NYC and Atlanta.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:45pm

    #28
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    6

    Chris' newest YouTube video

    "Coronavirus:  Over 50,000 new infections per day?" https://youtu.be/jbvibANxARg

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:05pm

    #29
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    1

    Here is a link to the quadratic model that aligns closely to Chinas case/mortality rates

    it goes up to February 11th......

    • 05/02/2020 23435 cases 489 fatalities

    • 06/02/2020 26885 cases 561 fatalities

    • 07/02/2020 30576 cases 639 fatalities

    • 08/02/2020 34506 cases 721 fatalities

    • 09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities

    • 10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities

    • 11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities

    [OC] Quadratic Coronavirus Epidemic Growth Model seems like the best fit from dataisbeautiful

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:12pm

    #30
    Alexis

    Alexis

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 65

    5

    More bases being allocated

    - foxnews reports that 12 more military base have been allocated to support quarantine measures in the states....

    - now this new mother/baby transfer 🙁 with a postive 30 hour old baby

    - doubling in japan (41 new, 86 now)

    - reading that YouTube is censoring “coronavirus”... is this true??

    - Facebook censoring “coronavirus” search redirects to cdc website for information

    article herehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/coronavirus-update-governments-prepare-for-pandemic states governments are preparing for the worst.

    Coverup here (WHO!) is worsening while the pandemic worsens overseas. Why do people in the USA think we are so untouchable for this “exotic” diseases!?

    btw, in reviewing WHO “how to manage specimens,” it said to use droplet precaution for upper respiratory tract samples and AEROSOLIZED precautions for lower respiratory tract samples. So, seeing the air crew on the plane bringing back the most recent ex-pats from China, they were wearing the masks with their own air supply NOT n95...  red flag and makes sense after reading that from who. I’m sure i screen shot it if anyone wants to see. It was buried a little bit but there none the less.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:21pm

    #31
    aggrivated

    aggrivated

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 22 2010

    Posts: 469

    6

    Not just masks

    My work is Healthcare in a small office in a southern US metropolitan area. We are having to source Level 2 masks outside of our major suppliers, they are out. N95 masks have no delivery date. One colleague said she was not able to get disposable gloves today. The most telling was a patient who tried three Walgreens before finding amoxicillin in stock.

    If you have an essential medicine now is the time to have your physician write a backup prescription and get it filled. Shortages are here, not just far away .

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:37pm

    #32
    last two

    last two

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    Joined: Mar 10 2019

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    0

    last two said:

    This is an interesting webpage - the average flu is pretty horrific 45,000,000 infections and 61000 deaths in the worse year this decade. I think coronova is either much worse or it is slight of hand to cover somethine we are unaware of

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:49pm

    #33

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2437

    20

    Charles on the "madness of the crowds": this won't touch us

    Pandemic, Lies and Videos
    Charles Hugh Smith.  Of Two Minds

    February 6, 2020

    Will we wonder, what were we thinking? and marvel anew at the madness of crowds?

    When we look back on this moment from the vantage of history, what will we think? Will we think how obvious it was that the coronavirus deaths in China were in the tens of thousands rather than the hundreds claimed by authorities?

    Will we think how obvious it was that the virus would spread around the globe, wreaking havoc on the global economy and social order, even as the authorities claimed only a handful of cases had arisen outside China?

    Will we be amazed at the delusional confidence that the U.S. economy would be untouched by the virus as stock markets quickly soared to new all-time highs while the world's largest economy ground to a halt in a desperate attempt to close the barn door after the horses had already escaped?

    Will we look back at the patently false data being promoted by authorities and wonder why the majority accepted it all as credible?

    Will we re-examine all the smartphone videos posted on the web by average people and wonder why all the lies were given more credibility than actual videos?

    Will we recall how content that didn't parrot the approved narrative that everything was under control and the global impact would be near-zero was suppressed, banned, de-platformed or marginalized? Will we wonder at the complacency of all those who accepted this orchestrated suppression with such obedient passivity?

    Will we look back at the claim that only twelve people in the entire U.S. had the virus, despite all the direct flights from Wuhan and the tens of thousands of people who'd traveled from China to the U.S. in January, and marvel at our credulity?

    Will we look back at the wreckage left in the wake of the coordinated campaign to suppress the facts and lay the responsibility for all the carnage on the authorities who devoted more energy to hiding the realities of the pandemic than to preparing us for the impact?

    Will we ponder the incredible grip of mass delusion on the human mind when we recall the confidence that the U.S. economy was invulnerable to the virus and the implosion of China, and the blithe quasi-religious faith that central banks would never let global stock markets decline even 2%?

    Will we wonder how the mainstream could watch the Chinese economy shutting down and still remain absolutely confident that the global economy would be untouched as the spot of bother was sure to evaporate in a week or two and all would be restored to pre-virus euphoria?

    Will we wonder what were we thinking? and marvel anew at the madness of crowds? Will we wonder why we embraced the delusion so readily, and relive the moment when the gate to reality creaked open? Will we relive our realization that we'd embraced an absurd fantasy floating on a tissue of lies, or will we bury that painful moment of truth?

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:08pm

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

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    Joined: Feb 21 2017

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    0

    Good past history

    Our deaths from the flu have been low in the past. This virus seems to have low death rate outside of China. We still don’t know what the mortality rate is gonna be, numbers from China can never trusted.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:22pm

    #35
    kunga

    kunga

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    Posts: 368

    3

    Pets

    Heartbreaking stories about the abandoned and starving pets left by folks in China who can't get home.  I am a cat person, but living rural I have thought of getting a dog.  I like animals, lots of wild bunnies and birds where I live.  However, for several reasons, I have decided to be petless.  The notion struck me during Katrina as pets were ripped from people's arms so they could board rescue busses, and many had to be abandoned as owners fled .  This occurs in our wildfire areas of the west coast, too.  After Katrina I sensed things were not going to improve.  To the govt. I am just a number and my precious pet is just a statistic.  So, my decision lowers my stress on one level.  I hope those of you with pets have a plan B for them if this all goes to heck.  I just couldn't take it if my precious animal had to suffer.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:46pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    1

    List of US Military Bases for Quarantined Repatriated Americans

    "Defense Secretary Mark Esper is expected to OK a Department of Health and Human Services request to supply additional housing and support for quarantined individuals, according to a Department of Defense release issued Thursday."

    "The list includes

    Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, near Honolulu International Airport;

    Great Lakes Training Center Navy Base, near Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport in Illinois;

    Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base, Texas, near Dallas Fort Worth International Airport;

    Dobbins Air Reserve Base, near Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport;

    Fort Hamilton, New York, for John F. Kennedy International Airport;

    Naval Base Kitsap, close to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport;

    Joint Base Anacostia for passengers traveling through Dulles International Airport in Virginia;

    Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, for Newark Liberty International Airport;

    and Fort Custer Training Center near Detroit Metro."

    The following Military Bases are already approved to provide housing and support services to quarantined American repatriated from Wuhan due to nCoV:

    "...March Air Reserve Base, Travis Air Force Base and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California;

    Lackland Air Force Base in Texas; and

    Eppley Airfield in Omaha, Nebraska." (Source)

    The original 2/6/20 US Dept. of Defense press release is here.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:51pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    4

    Model for China corona data predicted 639 deaths and China just reported 636!

    More proof that these numbers are fabricated!

    link:

    [OC] Quadratic Coronavirus Epidemic Growth Model seems like the best fit from dataisbeautiful

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:56pm

    #38
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    2

    Wuhan nCoV test lab opens; can run up to 10,000 samples per day

    Bloomberg (2/4/20): "The Chinese medical technology firm BGI Group said it has opened a lab in Wuhan, where the outbreak is centered, that can test 10,000 samples a day to diagnose the coronavirus there." (Source)

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 8:47pm

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 639

    8

    Sir Francis Bacon

    Man prefers to believe what he prefers to be true.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 8:48pm

    #40

    guardia

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 26 2009

    Posts: 55

    5

    Asians vs non-Asians

    We have some information about the 61 cases from the Japanese Cruise Ship:

    The 61 confirmed patients are from:

    • Japan: 28 people
    • US: 11
    • Australia, Canada: 7
    • China: 3
    • UK, New Zealand, Taiwan, Philippines, Argentina: 1

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-51409800

    The ship has passengers from 56 countries, but mostly from Japan. If the distribution of the infected follows the overall population on board (need to check that up), I don't think we can say that Asians are more prone to infection.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 9:12pm

    #41

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

    14

    Math and mortality

    We all know that the numbers are all rather squishy if not fabricated completely. Probably more deaths than we are being told and definitely more infections than we know (hopefully of the mild variety). That said, just running the numbers from this site (link) you can reach some interesting conclusions.

    China is currently listed as having 31,161 cases and 636 deaths.  So the best happy face mortality number we can get is 636/31,161 or roughly a case fatality risk (CFR) of 2% which coincidentally is the number WHO has announced. Incidentally this death rate is about 40 times higher than that of this year's flu!

    However, the number nobody seems to talk about is the number of patients who have actually recovered. For China that number is 1541 people recovered. So in reality, of the 31,116 cases, only 2177 have been resolved as of yet by either death or recovery. Leaving 28,939 yet to be determined. Among the resolved cases the mortality would pencil out at 636/2177 = a CFR of 29%. That would be a worst case. Recoveries seem to be tracking higher faster than deaths so it shouldn't be this high but it is certainly not 2% either. That's a pretty big grey zone in the middle.

    How about outside of China? I keep seeing speculation about how much better we will do based on very little but hope. There are currently 320 cases outside of China with only 3 deaths (counting the one in Dubai today), so 3/320 = minimum CFR of 0.9%, sounds comparatively good (only ~18 times your chance of dying from this year's flu). However, only 22 people have recovered so 295 cases (people!) are still in limbo between recovery and death (Schrodinger's flu...). The maximum CFR then is 3/22 = 13.6% given resolved cases to date (small numbers that can change substantially from day to day yet). That's higher than SARS (~10%), so let's not get too relaxed about this virus outside of China. We haven't really proven we are doing that much better yet.

    This thing not only has a long incubation time, it also seems to have a long recovery time for many. The 34 year old Chinese doctor (Dr. Li) who died today was first hospitalized on Jan 13. That's 25 days until an unfortunately final resolution.

    This will take weeks (if we can stop it), if not months or years to play out across the planet.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 9:52pm

    #42

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    4

    Comparative Bell Curve Charts - nCov vs Flu

    I was noodling around with Photoshop and came up with these two comparative charts of the Corona virus vs the typical Flu. I modeled it in a Bell curve but I'll admit, I'm a amateur in Statistics.

    As I remember my classes, you can model how spread a population's characteristic for a specific factor is fairly accurately and from there make some predictions for future cases. An example I always use, is the height of men. Take a big enough sample and 66% of them will fall within what is termed "1 sigma". 99% will fall within 2 sigma.

    You can do all sorts of cool statistical math stuff with that. Me not know that stuff, lol.

    If you have a big enough sample though, say measure 10 thousand men, and the median, or average will be real close. Measure just a dozen, not so. Especially if they happen to be the Harlem Globetrotters.

    This is why Chris and others more educated than me, say we need more data to make definitive guesses as to how this crisis will shake out.

    As you can see the typical flu virus we all get exposed to each year has a large portion of us who don't get symptoms, some who get mild ones, and many who get the typical flu with coughs, aches and fevers. I couldn't find the exact percentage, sorry.

    Because so many of us have been exposed and now have some immunity, the complications and severity of the illness is pretty low.

    A tiny fraction of us get what's called "Serious Complication Rates" or SCR where the flu puts us into the hospital and probably into an ICU bed, just around 1 percent. Even smaller, is the number of us who die, called the "Case Fatality Rate" or CFR which for the typical flu is just 0.1%. These numbers Chris and others have been discussing.

    Now this it what happens if you get the Corona virus. SCR rate goes way up and has been estimated at 10-20%, with the CFR of 2-3% (aka your relatives go shopping for funeral arrangements). That is fraking scary!

    We don't yet know how many people get exposed to the Corona virus and show no symptoms, how many just show mild symptoms and how many show a typical flu like illness. That will come as we get more data.

    For now, you can show friends and family these graphs and say "This stuff is bad!"

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:15pm

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    3

    We should stop trying to calculate the case fatality ratio (for now)

    Epidemiologists are estimating that at this point in an epidemic, the usual situation is that we are diagnosing 5 to 10% of the cases. So the real number is on the order of 300K cases. So the best case scenario might be CFR 600 deaths/300-600K cases or 0.1-0.2%. The worst case scenario is that China is severely undercounting the deaths, but by how much is impossible to guess at.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:15pm

    #44

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    4

    Selfies

    When I start seeing selfies of people in their masks I'll know the End is Here.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:22pm

    #45

    Agent700

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 02 2014

    Posts: 44

    3

    This Report Needs Peer Review, Help!

    This very detailed, researched, documented and cited report was published January 27th on Medium. The Author, Adrian Bond @realAdrianBond

    has had it removed many times but people keep getting it re-posted. He proves (to me at least), that the origin of the virus is the Wuhan lab and it was created as a bioweapon, with funding, assistance and cooperation of the U.S. Department of Defense! An absolutely shocking yet fully documented chronology of Zhengli Shi, the Director of the Wuhan Lab and preeminent global researcher, that sounds like a movie script.

    Is this story BS, or is it the truth that NOBODY can know about? Help me decide..

    https://archive.is/04t8S

    Coronavirus 2019-nCoV, Part 1_ Communist Coverup, or Pandemic Bioweapon of Mass Destruction_

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:43pm

    NotQuiteReady

    NotQuiteReady

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    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 5

    4

    Nationality, not race

    I don't think those stats refer to people's race, so I'm not sure that it's going to clarify in the way you hope.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 11:58pm

    #47
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    Sparky1 said:

    'Wartime conditions': Official orders Wuhan round up residents with coronavirus and send them to quarantine camps

    "Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, 69, announced new procedures in the city of 11 million that include going to each home and checking the temperature of all residents.
    “Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Sun said on Thursday. "

    "Sun ordered medical workers to go door-to-door to move any of those infected, with force, if necessary, to makeshift quarantine camps that include a convention center and other converted buildings. "

    "“It must be cut off from the source,” Sun told medical workers during a tour of one of the shelters. “You must keep a close eye. Don’t miss it.” "

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/wartime-conditions-official-orders-wuhan-round-up-residents-with-coronavirus-and-send-them-to-quarantine-camps

    h/t Saxplayer for posting the original NYT article here.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:04am

    #48
    Truth9834

    Truth9834

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

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    0

    Truth9834 said:

    Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, JenniferNuzzo a scholar at the John Hopkins Center for Health Security, says it’s “near impossible” for countries to keep the virus out of their borders. In her opinion, we should stop trying to slow down the inevitable. I do not agree with her position.  Your thoughts?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCZqdHyIbuY 

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:16am

    #49
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    nCoV "infected" man running from Chinese authorities trying to arrest him for quarantine (video)

    As posted on Twitter by Faisal Aziz:

    "Wuhan, Evergreen Community"

    "A suspicious infected is being chased by a group of policemen. People are reluctant to go to the designated Fire God Mountain Hospital because it is like jail. You never know if you can still come back"

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1225171458395136000

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:22am

    #50

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 357

    1

    Death rate

    Just posted this in another thread before finding this thread so will pop it in here too.

     

    • Hi. Here in New Zealand mainstream media was running with 2.1% worked out buy dividing deaths by total confirmed.

    But given the lag between symptoms and death I came up with 10%

    Today in mainstream news  “An analysis, published in The Lancet medical journal, of the first 99 patients treated for the coronavirus at the city’s Jinyintan Hospital shows how differently the virus can impact people. ”

    It noted just under half had a connection to the food market.

    More importantly it reports that 11 of them died

     

    Regards hamish

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 1:48am

    #51
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    Mismanagement of Tianjin patient caused 973 people "seized", quarantined for observation/treatment, hospital closed

    Sparky1 Note:  I'm not sure what to make of this incident hot on the heels of the "wartime conditions" directive to round-up the nCoV infected in China.  This also coincides with the newly announced (2/2/20) "centralized isolation" and fast-track diagnosis-to-treatment imperative utilizing the newly built hospitals. It appears that the Wuqing District Prevention and Control Headquarters took issue with the "hot" fever screening, diagnosis and isolation of one case/patient and as a consequence "sealed" and closed the Wuqing District People's Hospital, placed 739 "isolation and control" personnel (including 23 medical personnel) in quarantine for observation/isolation, and hospitalized (removed to new hospital?) 234 patients for treatment. This was announced at a press conference.

    Translation Google [bold added]

    A patient in Tianjin has caused 973 people to be quarantined and seized by Wuqing People's Hospital

    "CCTV Tianjin February 6 (Reporter Jia Liliang) A reporter learned from a press conference on the prevention and control of pneumonia in a new type of coronavirus infection in Tianjin that one patient was diagnosed in Wuqing District, Tianjin, due to the poor management of the hot diagnosis process. In the end, a total of 973 [persons in] hospitals were sealed, controlled and isolated."

    "....In this course of diagnosis and treatment, no problems can be seen on the surface, but there are actually problems during the operation. Wu Lixiang, member of the Standing Committee of Wuqing District Committee and executive deputy head, admits that the case has three warnings and lessons for the management of fever fever clinics."

    "In the early morning of February 4, the Wuqing District Prevention and Control Headquarters immediately became highly vigilant when they received a weak positive result from the patient's new crown virus nucleic acid test. The Wuqing District Prevention and Control Command immediately initiated emergency treatment measures: First, in accordance with the highest standards (standards of confirmed cases), the patient's ward and the inpatient building were blocked for the first time, and the district people's hospital was sealed and controlled at 7 am. Second, all contacts were quarantined in strict accordance with the requirements of flow regulation. Among them, 23 medical staff transferred to the Swan Lake Quarantine Medical Observation Point for observation and quarantine at 11 pm on February 4. The third is to strengthen the overall management and control of the hospital, to fully protect all wards and buildings, strictly implement personnel management measures to prevent cross-infection.

    After sorting and in-depth investigation of personnel, the People's Hospital of Wuqing District sorted out 973 isolation and control personnel, of which 739 were transferred to centralized isolation points for observation and isolation, and 234 patients were hospitalized and isolated for treatment."

    "At present, the preparation of the centralized medical observation points required by Wuqing District is ready....There are a total of 3 fever clinics in Wuqing District. After the district people's hospital is closed, there are two fever clinics in Wuqing District Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital and District Second People's Hospital. A total of 40 beds are available. In addition, Wu Qing has renovated the hot district clinic of the original district party school, with a total of 70 beds, which can be put into use at any time, which should be able to meet the needs of fever patients in the district."

    Source, translated as posted (with more details) by "Pathfinder" on FluTrackers

    Source, original article in Chinese:  https://6do.news/article/2179304-61

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:00am

    #52
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    Facts and photos of China's new mobile cabin hospitals (slideshow)

    ChinaDaily:  "Just the facts on mobile cabin hospitals"

    13 mobile hospitals planned to be situated in Wuhan; 20 to be situated elsewhere in China. Capacity of first 3 mobile hospitals in Wuhan in converted sports stadium and two convention centers is 1,300 beds and 2,000 medical staff.

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/05/WS5e3a8309a3101282172752f5_1.html

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:35am

    #53
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    3

    "Anthem of the Seas" to dock at New Jersey port on 2/7/20; Chinese nationals and some ill to be tested

     

     

    Cruise ship bound for New Jersey carrying passengers who will be tested for coronavirus

    "A Royal Caribbean cruise ship scheduled to dock in Bayonne, New Jersey, early Friday has at least a dozen Chinese nationals on board in isolation who will be tested for coronavirus, a source familiar with the ship said.
    Some of the passengers, who are returning from the Bahamas on the ship, have pulmonary issues, according to the source.
    They will be tested for the virus when the ship docks at the New Jersey port." (Source)

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:45am

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2019

    Posts: 25

    1

    Agent 700

    We may never know, but where there’s smoke, there’s fire.  They may have opened Pandora’s box.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 4:24am

    #55
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    2

    Trump knows... and tweets

    Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but...

    ....he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!

    Spring will be wanting !

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 5:35am

    #56
    brushhog

    brushhog

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    Joined: Oct 06 2015

    Posts: 87

    1

    The numbers dont add up

    Just noticing how the "official" number of new cases being reported has been a steady 4 thousand every day for at least the past week. How is this possible? As more cases emerge the number of new cases should be growing exponentially, not in a linear direction.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 5:52am

    #57
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    2020 Census

    Census starts April 1, 2020 for lower 48 states.  People going door to door asking questions.  Familiar? I hope to complete it on line.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:07am

    #58
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    1

    Cruise ship data summary

    nice cruise ship summary here:

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-06-coronavirus-infections-explode-across-diamond-princess-cruise-ship.html

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:07am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    All will be well in the spring

    ---Chauncy Gardner

    Hopin' ,Wishin' and Prayn'

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:10am

    #60

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1

    Hong Kong shoppers snap up rice and noodles as coronavirus fears mount

    Coronavirus scare at NSW school as 15th case confirmed in Australia
    There are concerns that hundreds of school children in NSW could have been exposed to coronavirus after a year one student attended class after returning from mainland China.

    Despite advice from the NSW state government that students who had recently travelled to mainland China should voluntarily stay home for two weeks, the student attended class at Oran Park Public School within the advised 14-day quarantine period in Sydney’s southwest.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-scare-at-nsw-school-as-15th-case-confirmed-in-australia-200158603.html

    =====================================
    Govt. allows shorter school year amid coronavirus outbreak (Korea)
    The ministry has advised schools to prepare alternative academic courses, such as online education material, to make up for the reduction in days.

    As of Thursday, 592 schools across the country, including 450 kindergartens, have temporarily closed to prevent the further spread of the contagious disease.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200207000597

    ==================================
    Coronavirus updates: 8 more Americans diagnosed on cruise ship as death toll hits 638
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-updates-8-more-americans-diagnosed-cruise-ship-death-toll-n1132136

    ===================================
    Fifth suspected coronavirus case reported in San Diego
    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-02-06/san-diego-hospitals-work-to-reassure-public-as-they-await-test-results-fo

    ========================================
    China grows isolated as airlines cancel more than 50,000 flights amid coronavirus epidemic
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-china-becomes-increasingly-isolated-as-airlines-pull-out.html

    ===================================
    Hong Kong shoppers snap up rice and noodles as coronavirus fears mount
    “Everyone’s snatching whatever they can get. I don’t even know what’s going on,” said a 72-year-old woman surnamed Li as she clutched two bags of toilet rolls.

    The government has condemned “malicious rumors” about shortages which have led to panic buying “and even chaos”, while supermarkets have put limits on the amount of products, including antiseptics, that people can buy.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hongkong-supermarkets/hong-kong-shoppers-snap-up-rice-and-noodles-as-coronavirus-fears-mount-idUSKBN2010Q6

    =====================================
    Lifeblood of Amazon merchants threatened as coronavirus infects Chinese workers
    The entrepreneurs are among the 1 million-plus Amazon sellers whose livelihoods depend on factory workers in China, where the coronavirus has sickened more than 30,000 and killed more than 600 people. Their predicament foreshadows the risk Amazon sellers face if China’s fast-moving epidemic results in worker shortages or prolonged factory closures.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-amazon-com/lifeblood-of-amazon-merchants-threatened-as-coronavirus-infects-chinese-workers-idUSKBN20114P

    ====================================

    Average hospital stay for patients infected with the novel coronavirus: 10 days

    The mean hospital stay for over 500 discharged patients infected with the novel coronavirus was around ten days, said Guo Yanhong, an official for China's National Health Commission, at a press conference on Friday.

    The analysis revealed that antiviral therapy and traditional Chinese medicine are effective in treatment, said Guo.

    https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html

    14:33, 07-Feb-2020

    Pangolins may be intermediate hosts of novel coronavirus: researchers

    ===================================
    Yes, worry about coronavirus: Those saying it’s just not that deadly are missing a few key points
    The current best estimates place the mortality of coronavirus between 1% and 3% with modern medical care. This only sounds low; in fact, it is a very high number. Seasonal influenza kills about 0.1% of patients with the virus, which translates to roughly 650,000 deaths around the world every year.

    Coronavirus is more infectious than the flu, and possibly a lot more infectious. If the current numbers are to be believed, it is at least 10 times as lethal as the flu today, which puts it close to the virulence of the influenza strain that killed 50 million people in 1918. Despite medical advances, the world is far more crowded, and hence more vulnerable, than it was in 1918.

    https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-yes-worry-about-coronavirus-20200206-ane5vluupjblbnr4sbvrquuxqy-story.html

    ===============================

     

     

     
    Beijing Braces For Coronavirus Cases As Lunar Holiday Ends
    "Based on the experience in pandemics of 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, studies show that school closures and traffic restrictions can successfully delay the onset of the pandemic peaks, but it does not mean you will slow down or decrease the magnitude of the [pandemic]," said Yang.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/06/802257287/beijing-braces-for-coronavirus-cases-as-lunar-holiday-ends

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:11am

    #61
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    Clothes for shopping

    I am thinking of going with a baggy, hoodie shirt and baggy sweat pants that can be worn over other clothes and easily removable when I get home.  Hijabs may become a popular item of women's wear.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:15am

    #62
    aggrivated

    aggrivated

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    Joined: Sep 22 2010

    Posts: 469

    2

    Vancouver report?

    Any reports of Wuhan flu in Vancouver? Somewhere just south of 40% of that large city is of Asian descent. So far I have seen no reported cases there. The high susceptibility of ethnic Asian individuals may be proven or disproven in that city.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:18am

    #63

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2437

    4

    Anon very well written summary

    Here we are, right where we thought we’d be.  It’s Thursday, February 6th. Trump’s market action associated with State of the Union and acquittal overpowered all risk.  After Trump’s press conference today, this ‘victory lap’ trend should begin to close.  Technically, today’s stock action marks a complete retracement back to prior market highs of Dow 29,348 from January 17th.  Apple is back near prior highs.  Even Alibaba is trading into the $220’s.  Trump was able to take a victory lap without any panic days in the market.  Again, right where we thought we’d be.  His political victory is assured by the market scoreboard.
    What comes next?  China has quarantined more than 60 million people.  Out of nowhere, President Xi voluntarily cut tariffs on U.S. products.  You think he did that because of 566 coronavirus deaths?  566 deaths is far fewer than the seasonal flu.  Yum brands, the owner of Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut just warned that coronavirus will be a significant headwind for 2020 earnings.  Yum operates 6,300 KFC’s and 2,200 Pizza Hut’s in China.  Kate Spade and Coach just closed a majority of its 366 stores in China.  Toyota is hunting for alternative auto part suppliers outside of China.  Adidas is closing 500 of its own stores and 11,500 outlets.  Apple closed all 42 stores.  It’s been two weeks since any AirPods have been manufactured.  Perhaps most importantly, Foxconn has stopped production of iPhones until February 10th and is likely to extend the shutdown into March. Tesla closed its 24 stores. Starbucks is closing stores.  You think the Chinese economy is being brought to its knees because of 566 deaths?
    We have reason to believe the Chinese government is severely under-reporting coronavirus data. In a sad story, WHO is confirming that the Chinese doctor who tried to sound the alarm back in December just passed away after contracting the virus from a patient.  Dr. Li was hospitalized on January 12th.  As evidence of censorship, Dr. Li was summoned by Wuhan police to sign a reprimand letter in which he was accused of ‘spreading rumors online’ and ‘severely disrupting social order.’  Turns out, Dr. Li was right.  Eight other doctors in Wuhan were reportedly arrested for ‘spreading rumors’ as well. Last Saturday, Tencent, one of China's largest tech companies, published data showing 154,023 were infected and 24,589 had died.  This calculates to a devastating 16% mortality rate. Tencent's webpage titled 'Epidemic Situation Tracker' was quickly updated to reflect the government figures of 14,446 infected and 304 dead following the alleged leak of information.  Watchers have identified 3 such leaks, believed to be coming from a whistleblower with access to real data.  It’s also being reported crematoriums are burning hundreds of bodies 24/7 after China banned funerals for those with coronavirus.  At this point it’s difficult to know what the real count is.  The only thing worse than no data is false data.
    If the Tencent data is true, then this coronavirus outbreak will face a reckoning. After Trump’s market-infused victory lap, not one dollar of pandemic risk is priced in.  Heading into the weekend, investors should begin watching for early signals of a downtrend from the double top at Dow 29,348. Supply chains are grinding to a halt.  Companies are issuing warnings.  While there’s much we don’t know concerning the outbreak, we do know that economic activity is being impacted negatively.
    The other day we referred to Hans Christian Andersen’s timeless classic ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’. In the tale, no one dare question the invisible fabric for fear of getting fired from their position, being called stupid, or incompetent…when in reality there were no clothes at all.  The emperor went so far as to parade before his subjects in his new ‘clothes’ until finally a child cries out, ‘But he isn’t wearing anything at all!’  Throughout time, mankind has proven gullible to the influence of propaganda.  What’s unfolding in China is extremely dangerous;  in this case, coverups could cost millions of lives.  We truly do not know whether to believe the official Chinese government statistics or to believe the private reports.  If private reports are true, then buying puts at Dow 29,348 represents the opportunity of a lifetime as the shutdown of China’s supply chain triggers the economy into a global depression.  Don’t listen to what they’re saying, watch what they’re doing.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:25am

    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    0

    sorry didn't check in a while.

    Actually yes i posted a screenshot in the forums. I'm not really sure where a good central place is to collect all this info and discussion because it seems to be located at whatever article is current on this website.

    I'd rather not just post it on the front page. It wouldn't be that hard to track who this person is if somebody really puts in the effort and we have to be mindfull of the chinese censors.

    Link to the forums:

    Coronavirus (Wuhan) Forum

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:32am

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

    8

    No they don't add up

    Brushhog,

    You are right to note the rather steady number of cases being reported. The spin for this is that the outbreak is stabilizing and slowing down. Maybe....

    However, the cap on cases is more likely a function of just how many samples that they are processing during any given day, not how many new cases that there really are. What should be reported is the total number of tests being done every day and their outcomes. If you test 3,500 people a day and nearly all are positive for the virus that tells you that your case counts are not at all indicative of reality. If you are testing 30,000 and 3,000 are positive, with the number dropping over time, that's an encouraging sign. That said, I saw somewhere that China has a new facility coming online today (?) that can test 10,000 samples a day. It will be interesting to see if the number  of 'cases' suddenly jumps up each day.

    Another reality check is that the supposed 31,000+ cases would only represent ~0.002% of China's population. The deaths so far are a mere 0.000046%, or <0.5 per million inhabitants.

    However, despite this minor level of realized impacts, China rapidly has shut down >50% of its entire economy for an extended holiday of unsure duration and, with the lockdown of Guangzhou (15 million people) and the rest of Guandong Province added to the other provinces already being quarantined, that's ~400,000,000 people under effective house arrest, >28% of China's population. That's more people than the entire combined population of the US and Canada.

    It seems unlikely that they would be doing this if they weren't extremely fearful of this disease causing much more catastrophic outcomes than their quarantining activities. This might also help explain why the rest of the world has shunned China like it has, well, the plague.

    We are being told, don't worry this is all under control. We should all apparently be celebrating by buying stocks if the ""markets"" are to be believed. It seems that disease, death and supply line disruptions for a 'just in time' global economic system are good for business! Who knew?

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:38am

    #66

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    Online Corona Virus Archive Without Paywall

    Going around the paywall that so many research papers get sucked into.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3b3v5/archivists-are-bypassing-paywalls-to-share-studies-about-coronaviruses

    Wonder what gems are there.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:49am

    #67
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1

    Re: All will be well in the spring

    Quote

    "It’s more like Trump is a kind of angry Chauncey Gardner who benefits from intellectuals’ reading deeply — too deeply — into his outbursts."

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/trump-chauncey-gardener/

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:55am

    #68
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 462

    3

    BC / Vancouver Update - reply to #50

    British Columbia identifies 2 new cases of novel coronavirus, bringing total to 4

    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/canadians-wuhan-plane_ca_5e3c8737c5b6b70886fcc4ac

    Five things to know about coronavirus in B.C.

    Vancouver is definitely a place to watch closely with its significant Asian population as well as being a major transportation hub and port city. The city of Richmond, which is basically a suburb of Vancouver has a derogatory nickname "Hongcouver" derived from its very large Asian population. It will be disaster if this virus gets going in this area...

    Jan

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:59am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2188

    15

    three weeks

    SP-

    Don’t listen to what they’re saying, watch what they’re doing.

    Yes exactly.  The US has declared a 14-day quarantine for the first time in 50 years.  Our intel agencies almost certainly own China's comms system.  Since the CCP knows what the facts are on the ground, so does the NSA, and as a result, so does Trump.

    Trump's response: to quarantine all traffic from his good pal Xi, with whom he just signed a trade agreement literally days earlier.  What are the odds?  China whines, but Trump just shrugs it off and says nothing.  Really, he says nothing other than "thoughts and prayers" (more or less).

    I believe the market will figure this out - but only after we get a serious number of infections outside the PRC.

    I think that the timeframe is - perhaps - 3 weeks.

    Well-connected Big Money will act in advance of the big move, however.  They will get the inside scoop from within the administration.  Once they get the story, they will slowly sneak off to the exits, so as not to startle the horses.  Money will flow to the safe havens.  Slowly, at first.

    I really think that's what we are seeing right now.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 7:09am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 78

    1

    Hemp oil

    Hi Kunga, Hemp oil containing cbd seems to work beautifully for many people for a wide variety of ailments including serious stuff like concussion injuries. For others, maybe it's not a miracle drug. I think some quality control is in order for the use of hemp oil. First it should be organically grown without pesticides. Secondly, the 'full-spectrum' product that contains a wide range of cannabinoids seems to be more effective than just highly purified cbd. they call this the entourage effect. Additionally, it should be tested by HPLC so you know the dosage being taken and to what extent it may or may not contain psychoactive THC. Also beware of any product that was extracted using hydrocarbons like pentane. My understanding is that ethanol extraction is highly effective and relatively safe.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 7:33am

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2019

    Posts: 25

    11

    Quadratic fit

    I have a possible explanation.  Remember we are not modeling the infections, but the detected infections.  The map is not the terrain.  It may be spreading exponentially but detected quadratically.  The quadratic equation is a limited growth model, and detecting nCov may be limited by the amount of test kits available, the number of doctors, beds, etc.  I would say a quadratic fit for infections is an indication of an overwhelmed (limited) healthcare system.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 7:46am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    2

    Good points on testing Mark

    I too have wondered the reason for the slow and steady data out of China, as you mention a good theory that # tested is capped  each day.  If China is artificially lowering reports I would still expect they would keep this slow trajectory (vs. shocking people with a data spike due to increased testing capacity).   The developing Cruise ship data represents the largest case count outside of China.   With this, it might offer the best large scale controlled set of data on Coronavirus patient (minus the Chinese data manipulation).   Granted the conditions may be unique vs. typical land based (ie; Transmission rates higher due to close confinement).

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 7:54am

    #73
    Barbara

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 180

    9

    Japan cruise ship will give accurate statistics

    The Japanese cruise ship should provide accurate statistics on OUTCOMES.  In two weeks we should get more accurate idea of severity, death rate and recovery outcomes.
    It would be nice to find ethnic information, rather than citizenship.  Parts of the US are refusing to provide this obviously useful information (especially important if you turn out to be in a high-risk ethnic group).  They claim it would be racist.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 8:07am

    #74
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    6

    Cruise ship Video testimonial from today

    Current date given to passengers for disembarking is 2/19.  Of course very dynamic situation.  It is suggested that new cases could push this date further.....

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 8:09am

    #75
    Lightning17

    Lightning17

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 31 2020

    Posts: 14

    11

    Occam's razor

    As far as our focus on the official case numbers, deaths etc....

    Garbage in, Garbage Out.

    China is literally nailing/welding people in their homes....do you think they are testing those folks everyday?

    The avg Chinese has figured out that the "Hospitals" are overwhelmed, under resourced and essentially staging areas for the crematoriums. They are hardy and pragmatic people and have decided that its better to self administer help and / or die at home.  That decision was made for the folks nailed into their homes.

    China's economy has come to a standstill.  Xi's whole future depends on the economy but he has to appear to be a viable global citizen while China is the epi-center of the virus.

    My guess is that once the virus is out of control everywhere....Xi will relax the severe quarantines and China will go back to establishing a new normal (even if that means a horrific new normal in terms of public health....life must go on).

    Given how many Chinese travelled while infectious....its unstoppable. The folks that don't get it are the same folks that don't understand that the Lottery is just a tax on people that can't grasp conceptual  math and statistics.  I keep explaining this to folks and they don't seem to be able to grasp that a asymptomatic , highly contagious virus thats contagious before, during and after the patient feels better (if the patient feels better) is literally unstoppable, sans a vaccine, natural morphing of virus to be less contagious or a radical change in the Ro as it goes into other gene pools and eco-systems .  I assume this is possible as the Chinese people density is super high and their sanitary systems are not always the best .

    I assume world leaders know this and the game is to let the virus spread so everyone's blameless and the quarantines' come down  to keep all the global  the economies on life support until this thing burns itself out or we find effective treatments.

    In the meantime, its going to get worse before it can get better.

    God Bless everyone. I am praying for you all (whether you believe in God or not...He believes in you).

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 8:20am

    #76
    DisappearingCulture

    DisappearingCulture

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 21 2014

    Posts: 57

    1

    Ships Coming to Port...This should be interesting to see how well they are handled

    Just a couple of headlines I grabbed:

    https://www.wsbtv.com/news/trending/coronavirus-confirmed-cases-aboard-cruise-ship-triples-61-including-11-us-citizens/U5ZDIEZBQZHNZH5PVJDOVYELFM/?fbclid=IwAR3OyRcZajjqWSfvBZ2A5qjUjdrqGvl9j-d3Tf7fKjsg64O0DVW2IFXZHuQ

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/coronavirus-new-jersey-cruise-ship-chinese-nationals?fbclid=IwAR3M6uSfOcPbBRI5cvcvHOdntexkH1aIQb-yajS-TlFda1l0G5xtsFH9zrU

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 8:39am

    bman

    bman

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    Joined: Jan 17 2011

    Posts: 6

    5

    Japan cruise ship will give accurate statistics

    I agree 100%.  These cruise ships are going to give us the best data, and should be watched closely.  Not only will we finally have real numbers to work with, but they are testing large numbers of at risk people, not just the self selected sampling that shows up to the hospital.  We'll finally get an idea of how many very mild cases are likely out there. It may turn out that the actual number of infections is astronomically high, but rate of serious complications and death is actually quite low.  Also agree that racial data would be interesting.  The cruise ships could finally settle that debate.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 8:46am

    Wendy Grimm

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2017

    Posts: 1

    2

    totally agree

    The dumb money is always the last to know. Why anyone would think otherwise is beyond me. The game is rigged so the house always wins

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 8:51am

    #79
    greendoc

    greendoc

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    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 166

    14

    Errata: Data on ACE II frequency in Chris's ACEII populations post

    Perfect storm of bad nomenclature and bad typography colliding….ACE II

    The chart taken from this study was used in a past post to illustrate the fact Chinese and Japanese may be at increased risk for nCoV due to the high percentage of ACE II genotype. I could see immediately this was a misrepresentation of the what the chart is trying to illustrate.

    This chart represents the frequency of genotypes for common insertion/deletion mutation found in the ACE gene. It is also called ACE ins/del, or ACE I/D or ACE II/DD. I = insertion, D=deletion. ACE is Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme, it is most definitely NOT ACE2 which is Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme 2. They are two different genes/enzymes. If you look at the original paper is very clear this chart has nothing to do at all about ACE2. It is unfortunate that two Capital ”I”s for Insertion look like roman number 2/II. Anyway, a genotype in this instance is simply calling the possible combinations of two alleles at a particular location in the genome for ACE that you can inherit from your parents. You will either be II, ID or DD. (You have some extra bits or you are missing them: you absolutely still have the ACE gene, it is just some people have a few more lines of code, if you will.)

    The original paper here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18208631

    The next chart appeared to come from Pinterest with no reference. I tried searching Google Scholar with the 6 rsid#s numbers and did not get a single hit for all six appearing together in a paper. These rsid#s indeed represent mutations in the ACE2 gene (the one that is receptor for the nCoV spike protein). These mutations may represent some alteration in how ACE2 is expressed, but no one has systematically studied them as to how they effect the functionality and expression of ACE2 across all populations.

    In addition, it is also clear from auick review of the literature that there does not exist even a single putative functional variant in ACE2 at this time. Basically that means scientists don’t understand how mutations in this gene effect its activity and/or expressions: either through altered mRNA, deletion of a transcription or repression site, changes to enzyme stability, changes to its catalyitc site. In short, mutations effect enzymes in many different ways. The vast majority of mutations to do not effect enzymes at all. At this stage of research, it is more about fine mapping of a gene locus, and genome association studies to start finding what are called “tag” single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs, that tag/or are connected to the true underlying functional variant. Even then, there can be more than one functional variant, and understanding how these in combination effect an enzyme is studied through haplotype analysis. The science for this and ACE2 is in its infancy. That Pinterest chart is meaningless in my opinion, as a population frequency chart compliled by adding up alleles from 6 mutations gives you no idea how they are effecting the activity (gain or loss or no change) to an enzyme.

    I will say science is full of terrible perfect storms like this ACE2/ACE II fiasco. It is SO easy to misinterpret the language of researchers. It is like they are deliberately trying to obfuscate. Adam and Chris, I am more than happy to look at any research you would care to run my me for a second opinion. The last five years I have worked in genomic meta-research and can spot things in this area of research pretty easily. I am NOT an expert in virology, statistics, etc. etc.

    Table 2. ACE II genotype frequency in different populations/countries

    Country Study authors
    Year of
    publication
    No. of
    subjects
    ACE II
    genotype
    frequency (%)
    Sweden Kurland et al. 2001 59 27
    Denmark Bladbjerg et al. 1999 199 23
    United Kingdom Kehoe et al. 1999 386 23
    United Kingdom Steeds et al. 2001 507 22
    United Kingdom Narain et al. 2000 342 18
    Netherland Hosoi et al. 1996 61 20
    Hungary Barkai et al. 2005 120 27
    Belgium Gu et al. 1994 109 19

    Sorry, I cannot figure out how to add a screenshot of the mentioned chart, so I just copied some lines from the paper and pasted here...it lost its formatting! If anyone peeps out there can tell me how to add a screenshot please do so.

    Thanks to Adam and Chris for their continued information scouting. It is invaluable.
    Claire

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 9:05am

    #80
    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 166

    12

    Repost from another thread ACE inhibitors and ARBs not useful

    I thought reposting this to be next to the ACEII post might be helpful.

    ARBs won’t help

    There seems to be alot of confusion/confounding here of ACE and ACE2. It is easy to confuse for sure, science does a crappy job naming things (they all sound so alike but they are different!) which creates these misunderstandings. Maybe this can help.

    ACE is a gene called Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme. This gene encodes an enzyme involved in catalyzing the conversion of angiotensin I into a physiologically active peptide angiotensin II. Angiotensin II is a potent vasopressor and aldosterone-stimulating peptide that controls blood pressure and fluid-electrolyte balance. This enzyme plays a key role in the renin-angiotensin system. Many studies have associated the presence or absence of a 287 bp Alu repeat element in this gene with the levels of circulating enzyme or cardiovascular pathophysiologies. This mutation is commonly referred to as the ACE insertion/deletion or, more simply ACE I/D. The relative frequency of this mutation in various ethnic populations worldwide has been of interest to scientists (As are the population frequencies of many other mutations in hundreds of genes) as they have bearing on diseases, medications, etc. ACE is NOT related to 2019 novel CoV or SARS at all.

    ACE inhibitors produce vasodilation by inhibiting the formation of angiotensin II. (Which is NOT ACE2) This molecule is a potent vasoconstrictor formed by the proteolytic action of renin (released by the kidneys) acting on circulating angiotensinogen to form angiotensin I.

    ACE inhibitors end with -pril: benazepril (Lotensin, Lotensin Hct); captopril (Capoten); enalapril (Vasotec); fosinopril (Monopril); lisinopril (Prinivil, Zestril). These medications have nothing to do with Coronaviruses.

    Much has been made about the non-peer reviewed study that ACE2 is the putative (considered to be based on available evidence)receptor for the spike protein of novel CoV (and likely this seems true) but even more has been said here by commenters that Asian males are more susceptible because they hav higher expression of ACE2 in lung cells.
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1

    I want to say that study was done on EIGHT samples from a tissue bank of lung tissue from healthy donors. ONE of those samples came from a Asian male and in this tissue sample ACE2 expression was found to be much higher than in other samples, and ACE2 was also being expressed in more cell types. The authors SPECULATE that this observation may underlie the virulence for novel CoV in Asians.

    First: this sample size is ridiculously small, it is NOT established fact. It is a very interesting observation that needs to be replicated by another research group in a much larger cohort. I am not a statistician, but there are guidelines for sample size needed in order to obtain results that can be statistically significant. That sample size of EIGHT was insufficiently powered. You can read more here: https://www.statisticsdonewrong.com/power.html
    So, if someone looked at tissue samples from 1000 people, 250 each: Africans, Caucasians, Asians and Latinos of roughly half male/female you might get a better idea of the actual ACE2 expression pattern as it varies by ethnicity. BTW: I am not a statistician, so 1000 might not be sufficiently powered (or may be overpowered) …but you get the idea.

    Also, when you read the comments associated with this study, several people (way smarter than me, who work in this area of science) point out some problems with the methodologies used in the research. I cannot comment on this, as I am not a subject matter expert in this area, but I am very clear this happens alot…..it is only people who work in these highly specialized niche areas of research who can understand these subtleties.

    But what about ACE2? https://www.genecards.org/cgi-bin/carddisp.pl?gene=ACE2&keywords=ACE2
    First, it is not ACE, it is also not angiotensin II.

    ACE2 (Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme 2) is a gene that encodes an enzyme which converts angiotensin I to angiotensin 1-9, a peptide of unknown function, and angiotensin II to angiotensin 1-7, a vasodilator (PubMed:10969042, PubMed:10924499, PubMed:11815627). Also able to hydrolyze apelin-13 and dynorphin-13 with high efficiency (PubMed:11815627). By cleavage of angiotensin II, may be an important regulator of heart function (PubMed:10969042, PubMed:10924499). By cleavage of angiotensin II, may also have a protective role in acute lung injury (By similarity). Plays an important role in amino acid transport by acting as binding partner of amino acid transporter SL6A19 in intestine, regulating trafficking, expression on the cell surface, and its catalytic activity (PubMed:18424768, PubMed:19185582). ACE2_HUMAN,Q9BYF1

    ACE2 also acts as a receptor for SARS coronavirus/SARS-CoV. ACE2_HUMAN,Q9BYF1
    What apparently makes novel CoV so serious for some is this surface expression of ACE2 protein on lung alveolar epithelial cells. ACE2 is poorly expressed in the upper respiratory tract: nose, sinus tissue, throat, but gets expressed in the lung. Hence, many people develop a fever and shortness of breathe, pneumonia and never really get a “cold” prior: sneezing, sore throat.

    In short high/upregulated ACE is bad: think high blood pressure. Hence ACE inhibitors to block it.

    ACE2 is good. An upregulated ACE2 (not angiotensin II) is actually regarded beneficial in cardiovascular and kidney disease. Perhaps having alot of ACE2 expressed in lung tissue ends up being bad for CoV infection though…and the result of that infection is the down regulation/inhibition of ACE2’s positive effects.

    Stephen Buhner mentions in his book, page 55: “SARS viruses attach to ACE-2 on the surface of lung, lymph, and spleen epithelial cells. (Licorice, Chinese skullcap, luteolin, horse chestnut, Polygonum spp., Rheum officinale, and plants high in pro- cyanidins and lectins such as elder and cinnamon block attachment to varying degrees.)”. Unfortunately the research supporting this statement tends to be highly technical in-vitro experiments with purified constituents, not real life/in vivo clinical trials involving 2019 novel coronavirus. But hey, it is something to look at seriously. Herbs are powerful used correctly. 

    And what about using ARBs? These drugs end in -sartan. Azilsartan (Edarbi); candesartan (Atacand), valsartan (Diovan); losartan (Cozaar); olmesartan (Benicar).
    ARB stands for AT1R blockers and they represent a major class of antihypertensive medications.

    Angiotensin-II (not ACE2) activates two major types of receptors, angiotensin II type one (AT1R) and type two (AT2R) receptors. While AT1R is widely expressed and mediates most inflammatory Ang-II effects (bad), AT2R, is less expressed and has opposite effects, promoting vasodilation and anti-inflammatory effects [1] . Physiologically, AT2R actions are usually masked by the more abundant AT1R. It has been suggested that ARBs can mediate their action through increasing angiotensin II (Ang II) availability to bind to the beneficial angiotensin type 2 receptor (AT2R), thus leading to unopposed AT2R stimulation.

    So long story short, ARBs do not block the gene or the enzyme ACE2. They block the receptor for Angiotensin 2 (AT1R: which is produced by ACE, not ACE2).

    I know, it is crazy to sort out. But trust me, ACE inhibitors and ARBs have nothing to do with fighting coronavirus infection. What is needed are antiviral meds or herbs that work on multiple levels:
    1. Block the receptor on ACE2 so the spike protein of novel CoA cannot attach
    2. Stop the endocytosis of the virus into the cell
    3. Stop/slow viral replication with in the cell.
    4. Activation of host defense systems
    5. Many other strategies: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25108320

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 9:16am

    #81
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

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    Re: Errata: Data on ACE II frequency in Chris's ACEII populations post

    I agree, neither of us are home in this territory.

    But nobody gives home who are and even if they do, they are doomed from the sitting.

    Take a look at Chris banned from Wikipedia.

    So we amateurs are doing our best and to be fair, we get the word out, we challenge the narrative and we do score points.

    I have also said that high temperatures would mess with corona, based on the research of SARS, and low and behold, Trump just tweeted the same thing after his conversation with China's frontman.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 9:20am

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 235

    2

    cruise ships - good data but it may take a while

    I watched the WHO conference on NCoV today and they said that every time a new infection shows up on these ships, they have to extend the quarantine period  14 days from the date of the last diagnosed infection.....that could go on for quite a while. Months if they get unlucky.  So sad...

    This is the link, it is rather lengthy, hard to hear and surprisingly frustrating to listen to.  Lots of concerns about supply chain and availability of PPE to healthcare workers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTEMh0T2ZmQ

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 9:23am

    Bleep

    Bleep

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    Joined: Mar 07 2017

    Posts: 54

    5

    China

    Lightning 17, wondering where you are getting your info on China.  I have several in-laws,  former colleagues,  and friends living in China and none of them are "nailed into" as you put it or confined to their homes.   There are temperature checks that go on entering buildings but those are in the cities.  Hubei and Wuhan are significantly more "nailed down" then the rest of the country from what I have seen.  Most of the Chinese and expats I have spoken with seem calmer and less panicked then a lot of people on here. Most of social media these days seems like an echo chamber of whatever platform one is on.  I am curious about how this will turn out.  I lived in Beijing at the end of SARS and that looked like it was heading towards a major pandemic and then suddenly cratered.   Also lived in Beijing when H1N1 was ravaging through North America - lots of deaths from that but without the Xenophobia and prejudice  about North Americans like we are seeing towards China.  (12,469 Deaths in the United States from 2009. H1N1.). Corona isn't anywhere near that yet even worldwide!

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 9:48am

    #84
    DrZaius

    DrZaius

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    Joined: Jan 15 2012

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    Smokers more susceptible to Coronavirus due to higher Ace2

    I just heard an interesting argument by pulmonologist Dr. Roger Seheult, which suggested that perhaps the reason that Chinese men seem to be more susceptible to the Coronavirus is that nearly 50% of males in China are smokers, whereas only 2% of females in China are smokers. He presented some evidence that showed that smoking is known to increase the amount of ACE2, especially in the lower lung tissue, which can facilitate the Coronavirus progressing into sever pneumonia.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 9:52am

    #85
    DavidSV

    DavidSV

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    Tobacco-use in expression of ACE-2 , receptor for 2019-nCoV

    That 2020.01.26.919985 report that indicates Asians have up to 5x ACE-2 expression that keeps circulating around here only has an 8 patient sample.   Garbage.

    Here is a report -- likewise has not yet been peer-reviewed -- that has a 225 nCoV patient sample size (across 4 datasets).  It concludes there is no racial or gender bias in the ACE-2 expression, only tobacco smoking.   Smoking is prevalent in China!   So is severe smog, which I speculate might have an effect on the SCR and CFR too.
    https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1

    If you haven't had enough reason to quit smoking yet, well here's a really good reason to stop asap, IMO!

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 9:57am

    #86

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2437

    3

    Decisions: Will you allow yourself to be quarantined?

    Don't know if any of us will need to face this choice.  But probably good to have considered it ahead of time.

    What if authorities say you must stay in this building (or where ever) for the public good?  Being locked down inside the quarantine boundary makes infection risk go way up.   But, it is beneficial for those OUTSIDE the boundary.

    You don't have to answer publicly (as the internet is forever), but just consider the issue.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:03am

    jturbo68

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Aug 04 2009

    Posts: 122

    7

    Videos not on PP?

    Im not seeing some of the newer CM videos on PP, but can view from the link referenced above on youtube.

    Anyone else?

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:04am

    tourcarve

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    Joined: May 21 2009

    Posts: 45

    4

    Quadratic Fit Question

    "Quadratic fit
    I have a possible explanation. Remember we are not modeling the infections, but the detected infections. The map is not the terrain. It may be spreading exponentially but detected quadratically. The quadratic equation is a limited growth model, and detecting nCov may be limited by the amount of test kits available, the number of doctors, beds, etc. I would say a quadratic fit for infections is an indication of an overwhelmed (limited) healthcare system."

    Thank you for this, Cheapseats. You make a useful distinction. I wonder, though, would you expect the data to fit any curve to very tightly? Wouldn't you expect more deviation?

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:08am

    tourcarve

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    Joined: May 21 2009

    Posts: 45

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    tourcarve said:

    "Videos not on PP?
    Im not seeing some of the newer CM videos on PP, but can view from the link referenced above on youtube.

    Anyone else?"

    Me too. The latest I can see on PP is "What We Can Say..." and "How We're Personally Preparing..."

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:23am

    #90

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    4

    So obvious that even Cramer sees it

    Jim Cramer Says Investors Shouldn't Shrug Off Coronavirus Worries
    Cramer told members on the AAP call that when he was in Miami for the Super Bowl he asked "some of the wealthiest people in the world” what they thought about the coronavirus.
    Former hedge fund manager and current owner of the NFL’s Carolina Panthers franchise, David Tepper, was one of a few who expressed concerns about the virus.

    “We were getting more and more reports about how China was hiding how many were really sick and how many were really dying, and the Wuhan diaspora was just settling in to where it could infect untold souls,” Cramer said.

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jim-cramer-has-coronavirus-concerns

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:24am

    #91
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    I will try not to take as personal

    I am pretty bent how some people who have authority positions trash people without warrant.  As they did with Chris and wikipedia.. Its really a shame that such people ( the wrong people ) are controlling the masses .  Its true censorship.   Never the less, I have to keep reminding myself that the people in control are not the intellects and empathetic and compassionate people.  they are usually narcissists and psychopaths.   how they manage to acquire these positions in a democratic system is amazing.  The truth is when the average intellect is less than 100. and most people here and chris have an IQ more than a standard deviation higher than the average medical student ( 140 or above, less than 1% of the population ) what chance can we expect to rationalize with the monkeys.. that are easily manipulated by the unethical tactics of politicians and big corporations etc.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:24am

    #92
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    2

    Smokers : Americans should look at their gut

    Vitame D, the most virulant, pun included, virus confronter.

    Kannibalisme is about omega 3. Apart from the sea, and algi derived sweet water creatures like forel, we naked people, we need the sea, river or domesticated animals to convert ALA, like in clover, into DPA or EPA.

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:33am

    Lightning17

    Lightning17

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    9

    Reply

    Bleep,

    There have been numerous video posts showing people being locked into their domiciles.  I'm sure if you search you can find them. Also available are (presumably sick) Chinese people actively resisting transportation along with messages from citizens.

    China is a huge place and I did not mean to state that all Chinese citizens in all areas are being nailed into their homes.  If you took it that way, my apologies.

    Nowhere in my message is any bigotry. I have visited China more than a dozen times , have done business with Chinese companies for years and my post said the folks are hardy and pragmatic.  I have many friends in China. I've often referred to Chinese as the Americans of Asia as there are many similarities in the culture when you strip away some of the trimmings.

    It would also be accurate to say there is equally a great deal of ethnic bigotry in China to non-Han peoples and to non-Han culture, so bigotry and Xenophobia run both directions. The Chinese Muslims in re-education camps come to mind. I think it would behoove all of us to minimize with the "Racist" this and "Racist" that claims. Some of the political correctness will be our undoing. For example, not releasing the ethnicity of infected people so we can understand and educate ourselves to transmission and treatment of the disease. The lack of accurate info coming from China has been incredibly irresponsible and has lost the world months of preparation.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:54am

    #94
    Lisa Mooney

    Lisa Mooney

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    Joined: Jan 25 2020

    Posts: 21

    13

    Medscape Guidelines

    http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/924807

    Chris, I am a triage RN and the corporate party line is this is a concern not a crisis.. And the US Healthcare system can more than handle growing cases here...Eye roll

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 11:32am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    6

    Trump "knows"...and tweets? See "Rules for Rulers"

    Where is there evidence that the nCoV spread and/or severity will be reduced due to warmer weather? If Trump "knows" then perhaps he should share this information.

    Trump tweeted--and yet it wasn't enough to pump the ""markets"" and allay fears of a global cascading economic slide due to nCoV.  Expect more Presidential tweets, Central Banks intervention, and "promising" or "better than expected" reports to goose the ""markets"" today. Its Friday, after all, so expect that the PPT (Plague Protection Team) will be hard at work about late afternoon today and by 2 a.m. Sunday.

    Both Trump and Xi know "The Rules for Rulers" (Source) and the potential opportunity and crisis the nCoV pandemic presents:  Opportunity to consolidate power and redistribute "treasure" to their "keys" that keep them in power. Crisis that they will lose control of the narrative, their "mandate" and, most importantly, their ability to control the distribution of the "treasure" (e.g., through ""markets"", economic productivity, supply chains).

    Yeah, I think rulers like Trump, Xi, and others, and their "keys" such as WHO, CCP, CDC, Central Banks, the 1% "know" and have known for quite a while the potential for the nCoV pandemic disaster to provide unprecedented opportunities to seize even more power and treasure and to redistribute them to a more concentrated circle of loyal or strategically useful "keys" (while eliminating those "disloyal" or "un-useful" keys or blocks). That is IF they can keep the masses from revolting (with the help, of course, of competing, opportunistic alternative emerging rulers). Hence, the need to keep the masses in the dark as long as possible:  "No one knows until everyone knows."  (Which is why Chris has been targeted for informing the public "early" with messages that run contrary to the official narrative.)

    When the extent and impact of the crisis (i.e., nCoV pandemic) become "known"--too great to hide, becoming common knowledge--then the rulers need to have convenient scapegoats ready to lambaste and punish to appease and distract the frightened, angry masses.

    I think we're at a tipping point where the extent and potential impact of the nCoV pandemic are becoming "known". President Xi and the CCP are already actively blaming and punishing the Wuhan provincial government and others while consolidating even more power and redistributing resources to loyalists. Other countries, including the US, are a bit behind in the process, still of trying to keep their citizens in the dark while using this time to align power and resources to maintain control of their "treasures".

    IMO, warmer springtime weather will not bring nCoV relief, but rather, a dramatic increase in sick and dying people, even more draconian government interventions, and social and economic dislocations.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 11:54am

    #96

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    3

    What??

    Nordicjack are you suggesting that we, middle and poor are un-intelligent monkeys??? Low IQ who are ....... “are easily manipulated by the unethical tactics of politicians and big corporations etc.”

    Most poor people I know are hard working and and just too dam busy trying to survive to give a lot of time and effort to politics.  How about you smart dudes do more to make a difference?  Did I miss understand you?  After all I don’t have a college degree or have any idea what my IQ is, though Davefairtex suggested once it might not be exceedingly low or something to that effect😎

    Cranky Granny

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:09pm

    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

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    Posts: 58

    3

    ACE II distribution

     

    ACE II genotype frequency in different populations/countries 

    Generally, the minimum number of samples for people is 100. However, sometimes a sample of one can provide valuable data and provide a ballpark figure. Few people are outliers, so the probability that the one person is an extreme example is unlikely.

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:16pm

    #98

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    4

    Spark1 👍

    IMO, warmer springtime weather will not “bring nCoV relief, but rather, a dramatic increase in sick and dying people, even more draconian government interventions, and social and economic dislocations.“

    Plus maybe wildfire, floods, earthquakes, famine and pestilence.  Kinda sounds like the four horseman.  Family and community will become a saving grace!

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:22pm

    #99
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Joined: Jun 04 2012

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    4

    Article of interest

    https://www.spiegel.de/international/a-vaccine-would-come-too-late-for-this-a-e5862b8e-e144-4356-939b-2871ff3b87b0

    Bio of author: https://wellcome.ac.uk/about-us/executive-leadership-team

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:35pm

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    2

    Are we still looking for a better name for this disease?

    Since "enn-co-vee" is still not a very inspiring name, I have come up with a couple:

    How about Wuflu (I think even better than Wuhu Flu?)

    Or Cov-Cough?

    Or pnwumonia?

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 1:12pm

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 198

    12

    Journal Article: Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents

    I just came across a review article released yesterday on how long coronaviruses can live on surfaces.  From the discussion portion of the article:

    Human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to 9 days. At a temperature of 30°C or more the duration of persistence is shorter. Veterinary coronaviruses have been shown to persist even longer for 28 d. Contamination of frequent touch
    surfaces in healthcare settings are therefore a potential source of viral transmission. Data on the transmissibility of coronaviruses from contaminated surfaces to hands were not found. However, it could be shown with influenza A virus that a contact of 5 s can transfer 31.6% of the viral load to the hands [9]. The transfer efficiency was lower (1.5%) with parainfluenza virus 3 and a 5 s contact between the surface and the hands [10]. In an observational study, it was described that students touch their face with their own hands on average 23 times per h, with contact mostly to the skin (56%), followed by mouth (36%), nose (31%) and eyes (31%) [11]. Although the viral load of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces is not known during an outbreak situation it seem plausible to reduce the viral load on surfaces by disinfection, especially of frequently touched surfaces in the immediate patient surrounding where the highest viral load can be expected. The WHO recommends “to ensure that environmental cleaning and disinfection procedures are followed consistently and
    correctly. Thoroughly cleaning environmental surfaces with water and detergent and applying commonly used hospital-level disinfectants (such as sodium hypochlorite) are effective and sufficient procedures.” [12] The typical use of bleach is at a dilution of 1:100 of 5% sodium hypochlorite
    resulting in a final concentration of 0.05% [13]. Our summarized data with coronaviruses suggest that a concentration of 0.1% is effective in 1 min (Table 3). That is why it seems appropriate to recommend a dilution 1:50 of standard bleach in the coronavirus setting. For the disinfection of small
    surfaces ethanol (62-71%; carrier tests) revealed a similar efficacy against coronavirus. A concentration of 70% ethanol is also recommended by the WHO for disinfecting small surfaces [13].

    That first line caught my attention.  If the 2019-nCov virus can live for up to nine days on surfaces, that is quite a public health challenge.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 1:15pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    re: Are we still looking for a better name for this disease?

    I've seen a few references to the "Kung Flu", although Wuhan is far from the generally accepted seat of where Ch'an philosophy was allegedly married to martial arts.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 1:58pm

    Bruno

    Bruno

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    Bruno said:

    How about Not pandemic?, Like Not QE?

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:06pm

    kaczma

    kaczma

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    Joined: Sep 09 2019

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    Coronavirus question

    Why only so many deaths among  Asians, not Europeans ????!!!

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:07pm

    Bruno

    Bruno

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    re. Are we still looking for a better name for this disease?

    How about, Not pandemic? Like Not QE.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:27pm

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    I just realised something chilling

    Europe is doubly screwed. That cases in Germany keep popping up virtually guarantees it's taken root there somewhere. Which because of Shengen of course means the entire EU is boned because there's no border control infrastructure anywhere anymore.

    But that's not the issue. The Immigrant issue is.

    Not that i'm against (legal) immigration or anything but we keep saying that one of the big problems of Wuhan are the large numbers of seasonal workers traversing between rural villages and large city centers.

    Well we have a whole mass of civilians within the EU borders who literally have Zero ties to their current location. They immigrated there on the promise of a better life; a virus certainly isn't part of that deal, nor is the resulting economic collapse.

    What's to stop them from emigrating again to places with yet-no-virus? En masse? No border quarantine is going to hold back a mass of people.

    Not to mention if it gets to the many tent camps (looking at you France) or neighborhoods where police and/or medical personnel can't come anymore it is going to be an epic disaster!.... more then it already is.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:34pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    7

    Chinese “hospitals” nothing more than rooms with beds, no medical care

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:35pm

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

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    Ghost cities?

    Just to play the contrarian, what does everyone here think about the large unpopulated Chinese cities we observed just a few years ago?

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:41pm

    Thetallestmanonearth

    Thetallestmanonearth

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    Joined: Feb 28 2013

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    LAX

    Yesterday I had the distinct displeasure of having to spend several hours at LAX waiting for a flight.  Of the thousands of people I saw in the terminal only a small fraction were wearing masks. Four on my flight including me.  I watched as people touched hand rails, ate food that fell off plates onto sticky tables and generally went about life as if nothing was happening.  I was wearing a surgical mask, kept my hands in my pockets except when washing them and stayed to myself as much as I could.  I have no delusions that would help much if the airport were a contaminated environment, but I felt like it was prudent to take the precautions available to me.  I was not surprised at some of the incredulous looks and snickers I got, but I was surprised that several people looked at me with genuine anger.  There have been several articles about how wearing masks is irresponsible since it takes supplies away from where they're most needed....maybe that was what people were reacting to.  I've had masks as part of my basic preps for years, but of course they don't know that.  I suspect the anger had more to do with the fact that I was breaking an unspoken code that no one is suppose to break ranks or act like anything is wrong until someone official tells them it is time to panic.  I have to fly again Monday and I'm frankly hoping things will escalate over the weekend so that I have a compelling reason to tell work I'm cancelling the trip.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:44pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    If shoe fits?

    I didn't think i was offending anyone here , we are here because we are informed or enlightened to the idea of truth or being informed properly.   I was talking about the masses.  I basically call it the 90-10 rule.. (90 % are incompetent in everything  and 10% are competent in everything. )   doesn't matter what profession.. it still holds true.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:45pm

    saxplayer00o1

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    1

    34,394 of which 4,826 (14%) in critical condition Deaths: 720

    of which 4,826 (14%)
    in critical condition
    Deaths:

    720

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 3:24pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    0

    @saxplay yes that number is not right

    You noticed that too.. I thought that was much more significant number.. If you work that backwards through comparison of the flu at 1% hospitalization rate - and .001 CFR .  Something doesnt add up.    Especially , since here in the US the death rate of ICU patients is 52% average of all causes.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 3:35pm

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2081

    1

    Some Americans don’t want those already infected banned from entry into US

    https://vdare.com/posts/better-dead-than-rude-only-a-slim-majority-favors-banning-those-already-infected-with-coronavirus-from-entering-us

    Better dead than possibly perceived as racist. The following graph shows the percentages of people, by selected demographics, who think the US government should deny entry into the country to any foreigner who has coronavirus. “Not sure” responses, constituting 17% of the total, are excluded, so the residuals represent percentages opposed to a ban among the opinionated. Not the y-axis begins at 20% on account of the author’s preference for symmetry:

    This is not a question about whether or not people from infected countries (China) should be allowed to travel into America, it’s about whether or not people already infected with coronavirus should be allowed in! It’s a big country, so maybe this is NIMBYism in the extreme. Or maybe it is an issue with reading comprehension, though the question is rather simple and straightforward.

    Whatever the case, it’s another example of what an unserious country this is. The official number of confirmed cases globally is around 31,000. There are over 7,500,000,000 people in the world who reside outside the US. To exclude the infected, then, is to temporarily restrict entry into the US of 0.00004% of the global population. Not forever, mind you–for just a few more weeks or months until the virus has run its course. And yet little over half of Democrats and only two-in-three Republicans are in favor of doing so. In total, 51% of the country supports banning the infected, while 32% oppose and 17% are not sure.

    When the next real super bug pandemic comes, a lot of people will die in order to avoid being thought of as rude.

    Parenthetically, you’ll notice how relatively narrow the ranges across demographic categories are. People don’t know what the ‘correct’ answer for their group is yet, because this cultural issue is a relatively novel one, at least in recent years. People have had time to figure out where their team stands on guns or abortion, but when it comes to what constitutes ideological rectitude with regard to mitigating global pandemics, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the air (heh).

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 4:03pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    3

    29% — that’s the % of the 138 #coronavirus infected patients who are actually infected medical staff

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1225843053706874880

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 4:11pm

    dude59

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 22 2009

    Posts: 18

    0

    Asian Males more susceptible to the virus

    It looks like the virus uses the ACE2 pathway to enter cells, and the ACE2 gene expression is much more pronounced (3x) in Asian males than Europeans

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 4:12pm

    TomKellyTAK

    TomKellyTAK

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    Joined: Feb 07 2020

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    5

    Link between smoking and NCoV mortality

    See lancet. Add 2-3 points for smoking. 47% Asian men smoke. The lower area in the lungs where the virus grows is the same area smoking affects the most.

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 4:19pm

    TomKellyTAK

    TomKellyTAK

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    Joined: Feb 07 2020

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    2

    Link between smoking and NCoV transmission?

    Transmission and serious infection may be linked to smoking. See lancet. Add 2-3 points for smoking. 47% Asian men smoke. The lower area in the lungs where the virus grows is the same area smoking affects the most.

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 4:52pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    2

    Critical case Jump to 6100 18%

    Just saw a big jump in critical cases to 18%  - looks like a lot more complications and serious illness with than the flu..  well we knew that - but Its looking a lot more like a 10% CFR not 2%

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 5:00pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    2

    New Report publishes clinical characteristics of 138 Ncov patients - 4.3% mortality

    Lots of clinical information in large patient study:

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=020720

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 5:10pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    5

    nCoV Holocaust: These are death camps, not "quarantine" facilities! "Suspected" infected rounded-up, by force.

    Very early this morning I posted here details about a disturbing event that happened on 2/4/20 whereby central district officials closed down (in 4 hours) a "hot fever" clinic/hospital and "seized" 973 people, of which the vast majority were workers (not patients). Here's an excerpt from my post where I summarize the event, details provided I my original post and the source document hotlinks:

    I’m not sure what to make of this incident hot on the heels of the “wartime conditions” directive to round-up the nCoV infected in China, by force if necessary. This also coincides with the newly announced (2/2/20) “centralized isolation” and fast-track diagnosis-to-treatment imperative utilizing the newly built hospitals. It appears that the Wuqing District Prevention and Control Headquarters took issue with the “hot” fever screening, diagnosis and isolation of one case/patient and as a consequence “sealed” and closed the Wuqing District People’s Hospital, placed 739 “isolation and control” personnel (including 23 medical personnel) in quarantine for observation/isolation, and hospitalized (removed to new hospital?) 234 patients for treatment. This was announced at a press conference.

    I also posted earlier in this thread a video showing a "suspected infected" man running from about 10 Chinese law/"health" enforcement personnel trying to arrest him for quarantine. Here's the video:  https://twitter.com/i/status/1225171458395136000

    It appears the only way out of these "quarantine" facilities and "hospitals" is through the door leading to the crematorium.  Body bags, optional:  while supplies last.

    This may no longer be a pandemic, but a holocaust.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 5:28pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    1

    Wow Sparky1

    I would not let my mind fathom that concept. But I bet your right. It means the leadership is desperate.  It will take a while for that to sink in.  What will our leadership do if they feel desperate?

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:26pm

    annepan001

    annepan001

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    1

    Any thoughts on this analysis? NCoV virus = a vaccine strain from a lab ...

    https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01/30/on-the-origins-of-the-2019-ncov-virus-wuhan-china/?fbclid=IwAR3K939KOc6_xz75SDuBSB2osxZIde6jlJs0PZhpK9cmBUgs1z4MlnKq2wA

    "The available evidence most strongly supports that the 2019-NCoV virus is a vaccine strain of coronavirus either accidentally released from a laboratory accident, perhaps a laboratory researcher becoming infected with the virus while conducting animal experiments, or the Chinese were performing clinical studies of a Coronavirus vaccine in humans."

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 6:41pm

    ao

    ao

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    Posts: 1329

    4

    my sense is that too many here have lost sight of the forest for the trees

    "It's all happened before and it'll happen again
    It'll happen again, they'll bet your life"

    The growing chaos is not by accident.  It was planned, it is desired, and it will serve a strategic function, to our detriment.  Once again, the populace is being played like a fiddle.

    https://journal-neo.org/2020/01/29/america-remembers-the-geopolitics-behind-the-satanic-panic/

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 7:05pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    China ignores offers of help from C.D.C. and W.H.O.

    From the New York Times.  This is relevant as it’s yet another action by China that supports a cover-up...they do not want these outsiders to see the extent of what is really happening.

     

    • China ignores offers of help from C.D.C. and W.H.O.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has offered for more than a month to send a team of experts to China to observe its coronavirus epidemic and help if it can. But no invitation from China has come — and no one can publicly explain why.

    The World Health Organization, which made a similar offer about two weeks ago, appears to be facing the same cold shoulder, though a spokeswoman said it is just “sorting out arrangements.”

    A possible reason, experts noted, is that outsiders could discover aspects of the outbreak that are embarrassing to China. For example, the country has not revealed how many of its doctors and nurses have died fighting the disease.

    In private phone calls and texts, some Chinese medical professionals have said they are overwhelmed and would welcome not just extra hands, but specialized expertise.

    On Friday, Alex M. Azar II, secretary of health and human services, said at a news briefing that he had recently reiterated the offer of a team to his Chinese counterpart, Dr. Ma Xiaowei.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 7:09pm

    aggrivated

    aggrivated

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    Posts: 469

    2

    Caution, cigarette smoking may be hazardous to your health.

    After China weathers this viral storm it would surprise me if the government didn't get serious about snuffing out smoking as an acceptable habit. Another job for the social scoring system already now in place. 'Caution, smoking is hazardous for your economy.'

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 7:57pm

    Bleep

    Bleep

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    Joined: Mar 07 2017

    Posts: 54

    0

    How to Help Your Family Cope And Cultural Attitudes

    A friend of mine in Shanghai wrote this about helping your family cope with the virus.

    https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xBNlmvYPey6hJPWTNkfi1w

    Another friend wrote this about the cultural attitudes about the pandemic.

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/somethings-right-here-folks-look-usa-2009-h1n1-virus-compared-cavolo

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 8:12pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 753

    3

    Holy God, this nCoV is a beast!

    I'm trying to wrap my brain around what we think we know so far about nCoV based on limited, questionable data. Anyone, please let me know if I've missed something or got some of my "facts" wrong.

    *  Evidence human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to 9 days

    *  R0 estimated at 2.5 - 4.08--or higher

    *  Evidence of asymptomatic infectivity

    *  No human "herd immunity" for this new strain coronavirus

    *  Potential for infection and re-infection

    *  Viral shedding, infectivity severity profile of viral shedding based on symptoms unknown

    *  Estimated 2-14 days from exposure to symptoms

    *  Evidence of human-to-human transmission

    *  Potential to be aerosolized

    *  Evidence of infection routes through mouth, nose, eyes, and broken skin (e.g., cuts)

    *  Evidence of fecal transmission

    *  Evidence of transmission to newborns

    *  Severe cases estimated at +/- 20% requiring high-intensity treatment and hospitalization

    *  Estimated case fatality rate based on unreliable data, really an unknown

    *  3+ week trajectory from symptoms to recovery or death

    *  No identifiable cure, only symptom management

    *  Potential vaccine may be months to year(s) away

    *  Reported cases in 29 countries

    *  34,638 reported confirmed cases worldwide

    *  2,029 reported recovered cases worldwide

    *  720 reported deaths worldwide

    This is the state of nCoV today (2/7/20) after only 9 weeks since first identified as a possible public health threat.

    IMO, this thing is just getting started. Using 1/25/20 as the base date for known cases, 14-day incubation cycles, and travel volume and destinations, Dr. Gabriel Leung** et al estimated that the first waves of nCoV pandemic would peak in larger Chinese cities beginning April/May 2020, with "Ground Zero" Wuhan city expected to peak about two weeks earlier. nCoV "exported" via travelers from China to other countries and cities globally would result in initial cases, then nCoV would become "self-sustaining" or self-perpetuating thereafter, fueling a global pandemic. His projections were conservative, and nCoV pandemic spread and impacts will likely hit earlier as the first reported case was in mid-December, with no real containment efforts until nearly a month later. The nCoV pandemic is obviously getting worse in China, but we really don't know if it has peaked in Wuhan yet.

    And did I mention the potential for subsequent nCoV pandemic waves after the first wave peaks and subsides??

    I believe the worst is yet to come, and at a scale that is almost unimaginable. Even the best prepared will not be unscathed by what's ahead.

    **Video of Dr. Leung's press conference, English starts about 5 minutes in.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 8:45pm

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 78

    2

    James Lyons-Weiler interview

    The James Lyons-Weiler data strike me as something that should be straightforward for other geneticists & virologists to either refute or corroborate. The pShuttle vector sequence and the SARS spike protein that he mentions is either there or it isn't with statistically high enough homology. Interestingly, on my first comment on this blog a few days ago I was spanked twice for bringing up this topic. I asked the identical question you just did, except in reference to the now retracted Indian study claiming hiv inserts. Quite ironic given the subject title of the current blog. Anyway, the White House now of all place seems to be asking for further analysis of this topic! This will all become more clear very soon.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 9:31pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    1

    Hospital or prison? Contractor's tour of new Wuhan "hospital" for nCoV patients

     

     

    Video shows interior of new Wuhan 'hospital' resembles prison

    Rooms have only exterior locks, doors cannot be opened from the inside, windows are welded shut and covered with vertical bars outside, small portal to pass/retrieve food, not electrical/medical hooks-ups.

    Article with embedded video with Twitter comments: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3870468

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:02pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    Would a Warm Moist Quarantine Room Cut nCov Lifespan?

    Thank you Suziegruber for the link on the surface contamination paper, and the excerpt you posted.

    I asked in another thread if given that room temp of above 30C or 86F decreases the life of nCov on surfaces, and that higher humidity also decrease it, whether it would make more sense to have any home quarantine room warm and moist?

    BlackForest, who is an ICU nurse points out that ICUs are normally kept cool and humid, rather than warm because pathogens prefer heat.

    I don't know enough to give an opinion but many of you work in medicine. What would be anyone's thoughts on this?

    Its looking more and more likely that unless you are one of the unfortunate first infected, your life and survival is going to be up to the care you receive at home.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:05pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    2

    sparky that is not hospital

    that is an isolation containment ward.  they feed you keep you separated from the public - if you die , you die, if you live , you will eventually be released.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:07pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    4

    Prisons Built Cheaply, In A Rush So Are Hospitals

    Everyone is freaking out on the conditions of the hospitals the Chinese have put up quickly in response to the outbreak. I wanted to remind everyone, building something that large that quick means you go for the bare minimum in luxuries. CCP control of China depends on at least the minimal acceptance of their control by the population. Rounding up a portion of your population and gassing them in showers, makes for a revolution. Lets not assume the worse til we see it.

    China's long history has many examples when the people rise up and dethrone leaders.

    Also, the members of the PLA all have wives, husbands, children and parents. They aren't very likely to go along with genocide.

    We got a big enough crisis without seeing concentration camps and mass graves where they aren't there yet.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 10:37pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    8

    Even Tempered Article, With A Scary Footnote

    This is a pretty even handed article

    https://theglobepost.com/2020/02/07/coronavirus-pandemic/

    Though it had this scary footnote:

    "Before too long, there will be respiratory outbreaks in nursing homes, more absenteeism in the workplace, and clusters of respiratory illness in families until there is widespread community-based transmission of the coronavirus and sentinel testing (the regular testing of a certain number of cases with influenza-like-illness) starts to detect cases. Emergency rooms will become crowded, intensive care units will be overwhelmed, and the worried will demand that they are tested.

    The Northern Hemisphere may get lucky, and not too many cases will appear before winter finishes and the respiratory season is over. The Southern Hemisphere is unlikely to be as fortunate, and large outbreaks will probably occur in Australia, South America, and Africa as they move into their winter season. India, Asia, and countries situated near the equator will also be in trouble. By next winter, the Northern Hemisphere will be seeing large-scale outbreaks."

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 11:12pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    11

    Chris' 2 newest nCoV YouTube videos. And 1 slimy video attacking Chris.

    Why aren't these videos being posted on PP? Hopefully the PP website for video uploads is still working. Even more importantly, I hope all is well with Chris, Adam and our crackerjack PP team.

    Here are the new nCoV PP videos:

    "The Coronavirus is a Nightmare for the Global Economy" (posted 2/7/20): Source

    "50K+ New Infections Per Day" (posted 2/6/20):  Source

    *********************************************************

    And here's a surprise! This slimy attack video came up in the YouTube PP search:

    "Coronavirus Epidemic Exploited by 'Peak Prosperity': Fearmongering for YouTube Clicks & Profit" (posted 2/3/20) Source

    Hey, 'ya think his video title with "Coronavirus" and "Peak Prosperity" was designed to move up in the search algo and snag some extra views?  Honestly, I watched 31 seconds of this scumbag's video and stopped because I didn't want to give him any clicks. (Probably too late....).

    Best to grab your favorite adult beverage, sit back and read through the 299 flaming comments. They're a hoot! My rough estimate has 99% of the comments as defending Chris and his work and/or slamming this joker's lame "arguments" and assertions. The host's responses to the very informed commenters is to call them "Boomers". I've never seen such shabby, moronic production.

    Chris should sue him for slander or copyright infringement (he's embedded PP video clips), but probably doesn't need the aggravation. There are more important things to be concerned about.

     

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 11:14pm

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    2

    Re: Trump "knows"...and tweets? See "Rules for Rulers"

    In this study, we showed that high temperature at high relative humidity has a synergistic effect on inactivation
    of SARS CoV viability while lower temperatures and low humidity support prolonged survival of virus on contaminated
    surfaces. The environmental conditions of countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are thus not
    conducive to the prolonged survival of the virus. In countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong where there is a intensive
    use of air-conditioning, transmission largely occurred in well-air-conditioned environments such as hospitals or
    hotels. Further, a separate study has shown that during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was
    18.18-fold higher in days with a lower air temperature than in days with a higher temperature in Hong Kong [24] and
    other regions [15–17]. Taken together, these observations may explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (with
    high temperature at high relative humidity) such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand did not have nosocomial outbreaks
    of SARS (Tables 1 and 2(a)–2(c)). It may also explain why Singapore, which is also in tropical area (Table 2(d)), had
    most of its SARS outbreaks in hospitals (air-conditioned environment). Interestingly, during the outbreak of SARS in
    Guangzhou, clinicians kept the windows of patient rooms open and well ventilated and these may well have reduced
    virus survival and this reduced nosocomial transmission. SARS CoV can retain its infectivity up to 2 weeks at
    low temperature and low humidity environment, which might facilitate the virus transmission in community as in
    Hong Kong which locates in subtropical area (Table 2(e)).

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221812681_The_Effects_of_Temperature_and_Relative_Humidity_on_the_Viability_of_the_SARS_Coronavirus/link/553b28bc0cf2c415bb09005d/download
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7287344_Environmental_factors_on_the_SARS_epidemic_Air_temperature_passage_of_time_and_multiplicative_effect_of_hospital_infection/link/56d63d7908aebabdb4005814/download

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 11:23pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    5

    Is War On The Korean Peninsula In The Cards - nCov in North Korea

    Watching Chris' recent Youtube video about the economic costs (not sure why PP isn't posting links here too?) I had a scary thought.

    North Korea just reported its first case of the Corona virus. Given their failed state status, that their agricultural industry is medieval, that medical care is only for the top government officials, that they are entirely dependent on China for coal and fuel, and there is a high rate of inflection spread of this virus, could Kim and the North Korean leadership decide they have nothing to lose by invading the South?

    3-4 weeks from now and North Korea is a basket case. Do it now while you have an Army that can at least fight, or wait and get to the point no one can?

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 12:45am

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    8

    Dr Li's Death

    Besides the fact that this is a terrible tragedy,  one should note than li fell ill on jan 10.  there are several case studies that put time to death from beginning of symptoms at 3 weeks.  This is also consistent with drs on the frontline testimonies of the course of disease and death.   So,  the people dying today , were just getting sick around the 10th -15th Jan..  Should we now worry that we have missed something?

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 1:44am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    5

    Mr. Curious, Welcome to PP, a "No Spanking" website. ;-)

    Welcome to the PP tribe, Mr. Curious! I've seen some of your posts, but I must have missed the two in which you felt you received some serious push-back, aka "spanking".

    The PP community is pretty diverse, supportive and respectful even when in strong disagreement with others' views or arguments. It is rare that someone runs afoul of the PP site posting guidelines and rules (found here ), but it has happened.

    If you feel someone is pushing the limits or oversteps those guidelines and rules, say so in a response posted on the thread, or through a personal message (PM) to the individual, and/or in a private message to the moderator, Adam Taggart. This usually addresses and resolves the problem. While extremely rare, the moderator reluctantly may limit or remove a member's posting privileges temporarily or permanently for repeated or extreme offenses.  (You might have noticed we have some strong reservations about censorship around here.)

    This unique community thrives and excels because of the diversity of its members and their intellectual contributions. But in an online forum, sometimes people misunderstand, misinterpret and/or simply disagree--sometimes vehemently--with one's stated position. Usually that gets sorted out with respectful clarification, civil discussion, or compelling arguments and supporting data (as appropriate). Sometimes members simply agree to disagree.

    I hope you continue to participate and add your voice to the conversations. We need your voice, and the voices of our many new and longer term members to remain a vibrant and relevant community. Thanks and keep posting! 🙂

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 2:40am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    4

    5 British infected in France

    Cluster in France infected by person from Singapore.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL8N2A804W

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 3:56am

    robshepler

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 16 2010

    Posts: 167

    4

    YouTube Videos

    I am going to take a guess and say that this site has taken enough new followers to choke a horse. With the exponential growth of new followers it makes a bit of sense to direct them to YouTube for a bit while this site is upgraded for the rest of us.

    Thoughts?

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:01am

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    3

    Missed one

    Sparky you missed one on your list, important one.

    It can also infect people via the Eyes. Around January 15th when this thing was starting to get serious a Chinese health official went to Wuhan to see how bad things where. He said that there wasn't any problem. Then on the way back (either january 21st or 23rd) he fell ill himself anyway for which he was ridiculed in China.

    He said he suspected it infected him through his eyes. Because they wore full protective clothing as you might expect - but he said he didn't wear eye gear.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3047394/chinese-expert-who-came-down-wuhan-coronavirus-after-saying-it-was

    There i managed to track down the article i read. It's important because a face mask will NOT protect you in either quarantine or in the hospital when one of your loved ones falls sick! you NEED a FULL FACE MASK!

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:05am

    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    Environment

    Hi,

    I think the environmental conditions to either enhance or inhibit pathogen growth/survival on fomites/surfaces depends on the pathogen.  For bacteria, fungi, molds that will grow in vitro, I would speculate, often a warmer environment would enhance growth.

    However, a virus is essentially dormant, non living, until it invades a cell.  So, the goal is to create conditions that will strip it of its protective coat so it can't survive long enough to invade the body.  The chemicals that inactivate the virus like the organic ammonium chlorides probably work better at higher temperatures.

    Also, the patient is also in the environment and I believe dried out mucous membranes allow more pathogens to invade.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:20am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5365

    29

    nCoV human engineered?

    Without speculating on whether such a thing was intentionally or accidentally released, the evidence that nCoV was human engineered is statistically quite strong.

    The chance of not one, but four insert regions happening naturally is exceedingly low.  The chance of these four insert regions consisting of multiple, long amino acid sequences (vs single point mutations) is also exceedingly small.

    Multiply those two chances together and, well, damn good chance this thing was human made.  With the proximity of the biolab in Wuhan and the fact that it was working on exactly these sorts of recombinations it's very likely this was an internal accident of some sort.   Or maybe a really horrible case of a deranged employee purposely releasing it.

    The implications are actually quite dire if this is true and the people of China catch wind of that development.

    Option A:  The CCP fesses up to the "oopsie" and asks for and receives forgiveness from its people and the world.

    Option B: The CCP instead opts to blame "western devils" for releasing a race targeted bioweapon on its people.  War becomes an appropriate response.

    Option C: The CCP tries to play dumb, the people of China find out, and one of those societal storms breaks across China upending the entire leadership structure.  China collapses economically and politically.   A decade of settling and rebuilding ensue.

    Maybe there's another option where nothing happens after people find out but the risks of A, B and C are non-zero.

    I talked with a virologist who professed that there's "zero chance" of the inserts being natural.   I'll keep digging.

    In the meantime, here's what I wrote about the topic back on Jan 31st (as a comment I am copy/pasting here again for those who missed it in the flood of comments since):

    OK, does the progression of this disease have any similarities whatsoever with HIV? That idea just seems preposterous on it’s face.

    Nope.

    I’m tracking the story from the ‘bioengineered’ paper carefully.  I actually read the whole thing this morning, but decided I needed to let some other qualified people in the field react to it before I made too much of it.

    The issue is that the researchers from India discovered that there are four relatively short, but significant, amino acid inserts in the corona spike proteins that seem to (based on modeled folding, not experimental crystallography) converge on the receptor binding area.

    That would be super unusual.  That’s the one area that’s usually most highly ‘conserved’ because any changes there tend to make binding worse, not better.  Even a single, solitary amino acid change at that position can wreck the whole thing.  To have 4?  And that are really quite large?

    As I understand it, that’s odd.  This is a map of the amino acid sequence of the spike protein.  The top row is nCoV.  The second row is SARS, and everything in red is where there is ‘consensus’ between the two coronaviruses.

    I want you to pay attention to insert 1 in particular.  It’s not just that it’s a swap or substitution of one amino acid for another (aka a mutation) it’s a complete insert of a whopping 7 amino acids.

    This is a bit tricky to explain, but what confers the functionality to a protein is its overall 3D shape.  It has to have exactly the right shape to work.  Inserting a whole chunk of new material into a long, complex string that then has to fold into an intricate origami of alpha helixes and beta sheets, with all the various charges lining up into a stable configuration is usually a recipe for disaster.

    The shape is all wrong, and ‘poof!’ the whole thing is a mess for its intended purpose.

    Remember, the entire purpose of a spike protein is to dock the virus with the ACE2 receptor to gain entry into the cell so it can take it over.

    It is the exact configuration of the spike protein that confers the species ‘preference’ of the virus.  Change it slightly and it no longer works on bats, but will work in snakes.  With a different substitution it will work in giraffes but not monkeys.

    So the changes in the spike proteins were being examined because that gives the clues as to how it managed to jump to humans.

    Well, when the researchers starting digging around in their massive genetic databases hunting for similar sequences as these inserts, they got these hits from the HIV virus (which is totally not related to nCoV in any way).

    All four inserts had varying degrees of matching. Inserts 1 and 2 were perfect matches to the gp120 spike protein on HIV which, it should be noted, is the name of the docking protein that binds to human cells and allows HIV to gain entry.

    Insert 3 lines up pretty well with HIV, but is missing three amino acids (in red) compared to HIV.  Insert 4 is missing 11 amino acids and has a much larger gap.

    The authors rather gently concluded that the uncanny similarity of the inserts to those found in HIV was  “unlikely to be fortuitous.”

    This study needs to be replicated, and I’ll need other qualified virologists to weigh in and confirm this before I make anything of it.  I remain interested but I’m very far from coming to any particular conclusion.

    In conclusion, let me also put a stop to the “HIV drugs work against, nCoV, therefore that proves something” conjecture.  The drugs mainly work by inhibiting the replication inside the cell after infection.  HIV is a retrovirus (negative sense RNA) while nCoV is a positive sense RNA.  They replicate by entirely different machinery.

    Many HIV drugs target the reverse transcriptase enzyme that HIV needs to converts it’s core RNA message into DNA.    These would be completely useless against nCoV because it doesn’t have that enzyme.

    The only drug that would be effective in both HIV and for nCoV based on the paper being discussed is one that specifically targeted the region of the spike protein that had been modified.  There might be one that does that, but I couldn’t find it by Googling.

    Otherwise, the drugs such as protease inhibitors would be expected to work against a wide variety of viruses but not because of the spike protein changes discussed above.

    There.  That’s perhaps more than you wanted to know, but there’s a lot of attention on this and I wanted to be sure we’re having a fact-based discussion.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:52am

    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    Elliott Wave pattern

    Since this epidemic is a natural phenomenon, the numbers will follow a Fibonacci sequence and fractal patterning, resolving chaos into an Elliott Wave set of surges and retreats.  Market traders will understand.

    Elliott Waves have an A-B-C or a 1-2-3-4-5 pattern.  Wave C or 3 is usually the strongest surge.  Waves B, or 2 and 4 are the retreat.  Three steps forward and one step back, so to speak.  Evidently, for the 1918 flu epidemic, the second surge wave was the worst.

    I noticed this pattern looking at a small pox epidemic I was reading about at the time.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 5:06am

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2437

    6

    Original Indian Lab Article has been "withdrawn"

    The original article documenting these amino acid insertions in the spike protein by the Indian Lab has been "withdrawn."

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1

    ------

    Withdrawn
    Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag

    Prashant Pradhan, Ashutosh Kumar Pandey, Akhilesh Mishra, Parul Gupta, Praveen Kumar Tripathi, Manoj Balakrishnan Menon, James Gomes, Perumal Vivekanandan, Bishwajit Kundu
    ----------
    It is my experience that "withdrawn" is different from "I disagree with the conclusions and here is why."
    "Withdrawn" usually means that a powerful politico-economic entity brought pressure to bear on the publishers.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 5:18am

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2437

    7

    Downloaded a copy of the Indian article. Will share pdf if interested.

    I am pretty averse to crushing "science" with political power.  I downloaded a pdf of the article prior to its being taken down.  Will share a copy of the original with PPers on request that I already know.
    Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag

    Prashant Pradhan, Ashutosh Kumar Pandey, Akhilesh Mishra, Parul Gupta, Praveen Kumar Tripathi, Manoj Balakrishnan Menon, James Gomes, Perumal Vivekanandan, Bishwajit Kundu

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 5:35am

    kunga

    kunga

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    1

    Thanks

    Chris, Thank you for explaining an extremely complex idea to us.  Linus Pauling would be having a ball.  There is obviously a very, very smart scientist out there.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 5:45am

    pcauchy

    pcauchy

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    pcauchy said:

    Unfortunately it looks like we are above that fit as of now (08/02/2020), one day ahead even

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 5:48am

    pcauchy

    pcauchy

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    pcauchy said:

    Anyone knows why Chris isn't posting anymore? Is he alright? Anything to do with the very suspicious deletion of his Wikipedia page? Hopefully he's fine... And hopefully no encounter with the FBI, NSA or FEMA with a forced NDA. Very suspicious if you ask me

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 5:48am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Posts: 135

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    Original paper- 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag

    I think this is the original paper (reposted in comments section)

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 6:05am

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 826

    2

    nCoV human engineered?

    Chris.....You ended by saying “that’s probably more than you want to know”.....Actually I would like to understand the science better. Do you think you could maybe find someone to break this down in more detailed layman’s language?  I for one want to learn and understand.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 6:20am

    Gerald Melino

    Gerald Melino

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    Joined: Sep 16 2011

    Posts: 12

    8

    Fudging the data

    WuHan Flu

    The attached file is a graph of the daily increase in cases in China and outside China. On about Jan 28, China selected a committee to centralize all reporting on the epidemic and also clamped down on any citizen reporting. Since then the rate of spread has been steadily falling (solid red line). The little diamonds on the line are points on the least squares regression model of the data since 1/28.  The correlation coefficient is 0.98 - almost an exact match between the data and the model. Compare this to the variation in the ex-China data.  In over 40 years as a statistician, I've never seen this amount of correlation in any studies outside of controlled experiments. Either every country outside of China is doing a lousy job tracking the data or the data is fudged.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 6:48am

    Monakha

    Monakha

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    Monakha said:

    Wow, you really have gone quite, haven't you?? No articles for the last couple of days? What's going on?

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 6:52am

    Monakha

    Monakha

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    Monakha said:

    Is America turning into China?? I can imagine Trump as Xi. At some point hadn't he praised Xi for his ways?

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 7:01am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    8

    What happens when hospitals get these patients?

    Take a look at the highlights from the 138 patient Jama report below. These people came into a chinese hospital (where huge outbreak) and the mixed symptoms still misled doctors.  When the first waves of patients start coming to US hospitals how will they ever be able to detect/avoid this?  I mean they can’t just assume everyone with abdominal pain is a coronavirus patient?  Going to be very tough.

     

     

    Reporting on Friday in JAMA, the authors said their data suggested that rapid person-to-person spread of the virus had occurred among their cases. That was in part because of patients like the one admitted to the surgical department, whose symptoms misled doctors into suspecting other illnesses and failing to take precautions to prevent spread of the virus until it was too late.

    About 10% of the patients did not initially have the usual symptoms, cough and fever, but instead had diarrhea and nausea first. Other uncommon symptoms included headache, dizziness and abdominal pain.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 7:05am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    4

    Could This Crisis Lead To Medicare For All

    Another thought on the economic issues surrounding this crisis. There are going to be thousands of people who have to have extended stays in the hospital for this virus. Costing tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars. Many are not going to have insurance, even then the co-pays are going to be huge. Could this lead to the government taking over the insurance industry and creating a Medicare for All system?

    If not then I see billions of dollars worth of bills heading towards the bankruptcy courts in 2-3 years.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 7:18am

    Nate

    Nate

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    Joined: May 05 2009

    Posts: 466

    5

    Medicare for all?

    Never let a crisis go to waste.  2019-nCoV represents a wonderful opportunity for public and private entities to off-load responsibilities like pensions, social security, and Medicare.  Social contract jubilee.

    Count me as one that believes this is no accident and part of 'the plan'.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 7:21am

    MAV

    MAV

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    I think Chris is fine - and sleep deprived

    He just posted #97 in this thread at 4:20am.

    He continues to post videos on YouTube.  As someone else mentioned, that's probably so the bandwidth can be hosted by YouTube instead of his PP site.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 7:22am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    Viral Whataboutism? - Pushback on the "Flu is Worse" meme

    Wired has some pushback on the earlier meme so many news and individuals have been parroting, the there isn't anything to worry about since the common flu is worse/kills more.

    https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-is-bad-comparing-it-to-the-flu-is-worse/

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 7:30am

    PenchantForHoarding

    PenchantForHoarding

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    6

    90-10 Rule

    Agree (unfortunately).

    But it's important to distinguish between content knowledge (facts) and cerebral computing power.  In an everyday example, you could spend an hour commute (on your phone) on mindless social media, or even worse, playing "games"... or read comments on this site and learn something.  Upon learning, perhaps curiosity is generated, leading to research, discussion, understanding, and just maybe somewhere way down the road competency expertise and wisdom.  And who knows, maybe that leads to teaching.

    Stupidity in our society is rampant.  But I think today it's more choice than genetics.  And I quite strongly think those choices are made because people today are ******* lazy... and lounge in a culture that says "that's ok.  here, eat something."

    The 90-10 rule could also apply toward making better choices and time allocation!  Imagine if only 10% of the time people opted out of lazy and did something productive?

    /rant off 🙂

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 8:06am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Posts: 135

    4

    Why can’t China keep up with deaths?

    China has 700 deaths a DAY from traffic accidents!

    One would think they could effectively manage the bodies and deaths from Ncov - 700 spread over 1 MONTH right?

    🤔

     

    DATA:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/1952218/traffics-toll-road-accidents-kill-700-people-day-china

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 8:21am

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 235

    5

    Cell Phone Hygiene

    Speaking of reading on our phones.

    I think cell phones could be a vector for passing on the virus even with good hand hygiene. I am getting in the habit of using my speaker phone.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 8:23am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 78

    2

    It's all good

    Sparky, it's all good. I'm loving the high quality information this site provides. Wish I would have found this group earlier (I did however find the crash course videos years ago and made my kids watch them). On the thread from the other day, there was stated fear that (the new guy possible MSM troll) would make this look a wacko conspiracy website for discussing the virus origins and therefore some self-censorship was apparently in order. I respectfully disagree with this viewpoint but I sympathize with the concern because I see various other blogs where the comment section looks like a feces slinging contest.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 8:34am

    PenchantForHoarding

    PenchantForHoarding

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 14

    6

    Comments

    Don't shoot the new guy (not a troll).

    ZH comments have gotten so bad - just base and venomous - that the site has become an open sewer.  RIP what used to be pretty solid discussion 🙁

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 8:43am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Posts: 78

    1

    OK now I'm freaked out

    I would add to your list that panicky responses from world governments have probably not peaked yet either, assuming the numbers keep going up.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 8:50am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    4

    Re: Cell Phones

    - Vegan DB12-  totally agree cell phone are filthy and many don’t realize. everyone i know washes there hands and then uses their filthy phones?

    I picked up a UV-C sanitizing box on amazon. I can fit cell phones, wallets, watches, keys and other medium small items in. Turn it on and it less than 10 minutes tested to kill 99.99% bacteria and viruses.

    or you can get one just for phones like phonesoap brand

    example:

    https://www.amazon.com/All-Coral-UV-Sanitizer-Dryer/dp/B07J2RNMF5/ref=mp_s_a_1_25?keywords=uv+sterilizer+box&qid=1581180428&sprefix=uv+&sr=8-25

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:04am

    PenchantForHoarding

    PenchantForHoarding

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 14

    1

    Virus Epidemiology Dashboad

    Got this link from the latest Med Cram video.  Alternative dashboard to wuflu.live

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:09am

    Rob Laporte

    Rob Laporte

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 04 2008

    Posts: 8

    4

    I’ll Join to Support This Essential Kind of Journalism

    It's been on my to-do list for days to become a paying member here, even though long ago I followed standard home prep advice from websites like this and books. Although I feel that this website and financial advisors accoss the spectrum have misunderstood how central bank money-printing makes it true that “this time is different,” I have long felt that societies depend on journalism that is not owned by the oligarchy. With the internet, good journalism can use material posted on the web and through social media, such that the journalism is very cost-effective and useful to the public.

    The coronavirus crisis makes PeakProsperity.com more valuable than ever. As in my pior posts, I advise addressing honestly any views that indicate lower risk. For example, the lack of apparent logarithmic  spread outside of China (perhaps due to the Asian ACE-2 gene expression) is a front and center issue to address.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:10am

    Rob Laporte

    Rob Laporte

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 04 2008

    Posts: 8

    1

    I’ll Join to Support This Essential Kind of Journalism

    It's been on my to-do list for days to become a paying member here, even though long ago I followed standard home prep advice from websites like this and books. Although I feel that this website and financial advisors accoss the spectrum have misunderstood how central bank money-printing makes it true that “this time is different,” I have long felt that societies depend on journalism that is not owned by the oligarchy. With the internet, good journalism can use material posted on the web and through social media, such that the journalism is very cost-effective and useful to the public.

    The coronavirus crisis makes PeakProsperity.com more valuable than ever. As in my prior posts, I advise addressing honestly any views that indicate lower risk. For example, the lack of apparent logarithmic  spread outside of China (perhaps due to the Asian ACE-2 gene expression) is a front and center issue to address.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:41am

    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    0

    Agreed - I Think The ACE-2 Thing Is Key

    If Asian males are 4-5 times more prone to this virus - then it makes all the difference in the world.

    The pandemic will be much less serious outside Asia.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 10:04am

    asgordon123

    asgordon123

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 05 2018

    Posts: 19

    5

    Stock up on medications....

    80% of ingredients for meds come from china....97% of all antibiotics are from China....

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 10:11am

    Gintaras

    Gintaras

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    Joined: Nov 05 2013

    Posts: 1

    0

    Chineese Study says Remdesivir and Chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro

    Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro.

    In December 2019, a novel pneumonia caused by a previously unknown pathogen emerged in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in central China. The initial cases were linked to exposures in a seafood market in Wuhan.1 As of January 27, 2020, the Chinese authorities reported 2835 confirmed cases in mainland China, including 81 deaths. Additionally, 19 confirmed cases were identified in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and 39 imported cases were identified in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, United States, Vietnam, Singapore, Nepal, France, Australia and Canada. The pathogen was soon identified as a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which is closely related to sever acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV).2 Currently, there is no specific treatment against the new virus. Therefore, identifying effective antiviral agents to combat the disease is urgently needed.

    An efficient approach to drug discovery is to test whether the existing antiviral drugs are effective in treating related viral infections. The 2019-nCoV belongs to Betacoronavirus which also contains SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV). Several drugs, such as ribavirin, interferon, lopinavir-ritonavir, corticosteroids, have been used in patients with SARS or MERS, although the efficacy of some drugs remains controversial.3 In this study, we evaluated the antiviral efficiency of five FAD-approved drugs including ribavirin, penciclovir, nitazoxanide, nafamostat, chloroquine and two well-known broad-spectrum antiviral drugs remdesivir (GS-5734) and favipiravir (T-705) against a clinical isolate of 2019-nCoV in vitro.
    Standard assays were carried out to measure the effects of these compounds on the cytotoxicity, virus yield and infection rates of 2019-nCoVs. Firstly, the cytotoxicity of the candidate compounds in Vero E6 cells (ATCC-1586) was determined by the CCK8 assay. Then, Vero E6 cells were infected with nCoV-2019BetaCoV/Wuhan/WIV04/20192 at a multiplicity of infection (MOI) of 0.05 in the presence of varying concentrations of the test drugs. DMSO was used in the controls. Efficacies were evaluated by quantification of viral copy numbers in the cell supernatant via quantitative real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) and confirmed with visualization of virus nucleoprotein (NP) expression through immunofluorescence microscopy at 48 h post infection (p.i.) (cytopathic effect was not obvious at this time point of infection). Among the seven tested drugs, high concentrations of three nucleoside analogs including ribavirin (half-maximal effective concentration (EC50) = 109.50 μM, half-cytotoxic concentration (CC50) > 400 μM, selectivity index (SI) > 3.65), penciclovir (EC50 = 95.96 μM, CC50 > 400 μM, SI > 4.17) and favipiravir (EC50 = 61.88 μM, CC50 > 400 μM, SI > 6.46) were required to reduce the viral infection (Fig. 1a and Supplementary information, Fig. S1). However, favipiravir has been shown to be 100% effective in protecting mice against Ebola virus challenge, although its EC50 value in Vero E6 cells was as high as 67 μM,4 suggesting further in vivo studies are recommended to evaluate this antiviral nucleoside. Nafamostat, a potent inhibitor of MERS-CoV, which prevents membrane fusion, was inhibitive against the 2019-nCoV infection (EC50 = 22.50 μM, CC50 > 100 μM, SI > 4.44). Nitazoxanide, a commercial antiprotozoal agent with an antiviral potential against a broad range of viruses including human and animal coronaviruses, inhibited the 2019-nCoV at a low-micromolar concentration (EC50 = 2.12 μM; CC50 > 35.53 μM; SI > 16.76). Further in vivo evaluation of this drug against 2019-nCoV infection is recommended. Notably, two compounds remdesivir (EC50 = 0.77 μM; CC50 > 100 μM; SI > 129.87) and chloroquine (EC50 = 1.13 μM; CC50 > 100 μM, SI > 88.50) potently blocked virus infection at low-micromolar concentration and showed high SI (Fig. 1a, b).

    a Vero E6 cells were infected with 2019-nCoV at an MOI of 0.05 in the treatment of different doses of the indicated antivirals for 48 h. The viral yield in the cell supernatant was then quantified by qRT-PCR. Cytotoxicity of these drugs to Vero E6 cells was measured by CCK-8 assays. The left and right Y-axis of the graphs represent mean % inhibition of virus yield and cytotoxicity of the drugs, respectively. The experiments were done in triplicates. b Immunofluorescence microscopy of virus infection upon treatment of remdesivir and chloroquine. Virus infection and drug treatment were performed as mentioned above. At 48 h p.i., the infected cells were fixed, and then probed with rabbit sera against the NP of a bat SARS-related CoV2 as the primary antibody and Alexa 488-labeled goat anti-rabbit IgG (1:500; Abcam) as the secondary antibody, respectively. The nuclei were stained with Hoechst dye. Bars, 100 μm. c and d Time-of-addition experiment of remdesivir and chloroquine. For “Full-time” treatment, Vero E6 cells were pre-treated with the drugs for 1 h, and virus was then added to allow attachment for 2 h. Afterwards, the virus–drug mixture was removed, and the cells were cultured with drug-containing medium until the end of the experiment. For “Entry” treatment, the drugs were added to the cells for 1 h before viral attachment, and at 2 h p.i., the virus–drug mixture was replaced with fresh culture medium and maintained till the end of the experiment. For “Post-entry” experiment, drugs were added at 2 h p.i., and maintained until the end of the experiment. For all the experimental groups, cells were infected with 2019-nCoV at an MOI of 0.05, and virus yield in the infected cell supernatants was quantified by qRT-PCR c and NP expression in infected cells was analyzed by Western blot d at 14 h p.i.

    Remdesivir has been recently recognized as a promising antiviral drug against a wide array of RNA viruses (including SARS/MERS-CoV5) infection in cultured cells, mice and nonhuman primate (NHP) models. It is currently under clinical development for the treatment of Ebola virus infection.6 Remdesivir is an adenosine analogue, which incorporates into nascent viral RNA chains and results in pre-mature termination.7 Our time-of-addition assay showed remdesivir functioned at a stage post virus entry (Fig. 1c, d), which is in agreement with its putative anti-viral mechanism as a nucleotide analogue. Warren et al. showed that in NHP model, intravenous administration of 10 mg/kg dose of remdesivir resulted in concomitant persistent levels of its active form in the blood (10 μM) and conferred 100% protection against Ebola virus infection.7 Our data showed that EC90 value of remdesivir against 2019-nCoV in Vero E6 cells was 1.76 μM, suggesting its working concentration is likely to be achieved in NHP. Our preliminary data (Supplementary information, Fig. S2) showed that remdesivir also inhibited virus infection efficiently in a human cell line (human liver cancer Huh-7 cells), which is sensitive to 2019-nCoV.2

    Chloroquine, a widely-used anti-malarial and autoimmune disease drug, has recently been reported as a potential broad-spectrum antiviral drug.8,9 Chloroquine is known to block virus infection by increasing endosomal pH required for virus/cell fusion, as well as interfering with the glycosylation of cellular receptors of SARS-CoV.10 Our time-of-addition assay demonstrated that chloroquine functioned at both entry, and at post-entry stages of the 2019-nCoV infection in Vero E6 cells (Fig. 1c, d). Besides its antiviral activity, chloroquine has an immune-modulating activity, which may synergistically enhance its antiviral effect in vivo. Chloroquine is widely distributed in the whole body, including lung, after oral administration. The EC90 value of chloroquine against the 2019-nCoV in Vero E6 cells was 6.90 μM, which can be clinically achievable as demonstrated in the plasma of rheumatoid arthritis patients who received 500 mg administration.11 Chloroquine is a cheap and a safe drug that has been used for more than 70 years and, therefore, it is potentially clinically applicable against the 2019-nCoV.

    Our findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro. Since these compounds have been used in human patients with a safety track record and shown to be effective against various ailments, we suggest that they should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease.

    Acknowledgements

    We thank Xi Wang, Yan Wu, Weijuan Shang, Huanyu Zhang, Yufeng Li, Hengrui Hu, Xiaming Jiang, Yuan Sun, from Wuhan Institute of Virology for their essential assistance with this study. We thank Prof. Fei Deng from National Virus Resource Center, and Tao Du, Jia Wu and Hao Tang from BSL-3 Laboratory of Wuhan Institute of Virology for their critical support. We thank Prof. Yanyi Wang and other colleagues of Wuhan Institute of Virology and Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory for their excellent coordination. We thank Dr. Basil Arif for scientific editing of the manuscript. We thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions. This work was supported in part by grants from the National Science and Technology Major Projects for “Major New Drugs Innovation and Development” (directed by Prof. Song Li) (2018ZX09711003), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31621061), and the Emergency Scientific Research Project for 2019-nCoV from Hubei Province (to Profs. Zhengli Shi and Gengfu Xiao).

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0#Fig1

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 10:12am

    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 166

    3

    the Asian male ACE2 thing is not established fact. See post #59

    Let' get our facts straight. Read post #59 for a deeper explanation.

    In fact, a just published (not peer reviewed paper) of many more lung tissue samples from Asians and Caucausians saw no difference in ACE2 expression between the two groups. They did however see that smokers had higher expression.

    Thank you David (post #63) for posting the link to this paper
    https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1

    Published by Guoshuai Cai, Professor
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208

    These methodologies and conclusions seem legitimate. This is the kind of replication studies that are needed to reinforce or disprove the observation seen in one tissue sample form an Asian male. This larger study disproves that theory. This is how science is supposed to work. come up with a hypothesis, test it, report observations, keep repeating in larger samples and see if you get the same/different result, as in keep testing your hypothesis. I would say this is a very opposite result from the paper that only looked at 8 samples, one being asian male.

    Claire

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 10:23am

    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 417

    18

    Rob

    Give it 2-3 weeks, and all of us will start gaining a lot of clarity on N-Cov.  Assuming there’s not going to be exponential spread outside of China based on a “theory” is ludicrous at this point.  And actually you are missing the point, even if this somehow stays in China, which it won’t, there’s probably going to be MAJOR  economic consequences globally.  Not enough time has passed to really know.  Requesting Chris to “honestly” address information is an uninformed and unwarranted statement.  It implies Chris does not present information in a balanced fashion.  Just because you might not understand something doesn’t mean other’s don’t.  There is a very large group of people at PP who have members going back to pre-2010 or 2011.  I have read & listened to literally hundreds of articles & podcasts over the years.  Members here consist of nurses, engineers, doctors, teachers, farmers, technology folks, business people, you name it from very diverse backgrounds with much in the way of real life education to very advanced degrees.  Personally, I’m a hospital physician with an electrical engineering background and trained astronauts 25+ years ago before going into medicine.  I’ve personally met other PP members and they are some of the nicest, balanced, and thoughtful people I’ve known.   I suggest that you listen to, or read the Crash Course.

    Welcome to PP.  Glad to have you.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 10:31am

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    0

    Where is the pandemic ?

    So far i don't see any sign of nCoV spreading like wildfire in non Asian countries. The ACEII theory is maybe not proven, as a theory it is still holding up.

    Infected people from China were travelling for more then a month and by now we should have seen clusters in Europe and the US.

    Nothing so far and my guess is that most who did fall sick are of Asian origin.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 10:40am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    0

    Desogames, great catch! I updated the list.

    Thanks, Desogames!  That is important information re: the eyes as a route to nCoV infection. Your comment made me realize that I didn't explicitly identify potential infection routes.

    I updated the list with this addition:  "Evidence of infection routes through mouth, nose, eyes, and broken skin (e.g., cuts)"

    Anyone, please let me know if I've missed anything else.  Thanks D. and all!

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 10:45am

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2081

    3

    The plot thickens...

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/canadian-scientist-center-chinese-bio-espionage-probe-found-dead-africa

    As GreatGameIndia.com detailed earlier, in a very strange turn of events, renowned scientist Frank Plummer who received Saudi SARS Coronavirus sample and was working on Coronavirus (HIV) vaccine in the Winnipeg based Canadian lab from where the virus was smuggled by Chinese Biowarfare agents and weaponized as revealed in GreatGameIndia investigation, has died in mysterious conditions.

    Frank Plummer was the key to the Chinese Biological Espionage case at Winnipeg’s National Microbiology Laboratory.

    According to CBC, Plummer, 67, was in Kenya, where he was a keynote speaker at the annual meeting of the University of Nairobi’s collaborative centre for research and training in HIV/AIDS/STIs.

    Dr. Larry Gelmon, who helped set up that meeting, said Plummer collapsed and was taken to hospital in Nairobi, where he was pronounced dead on arrival.

    No confirmed cause of death has yet been released.

    Plummer was born and raised in Winnipeg, where he headed up Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory for several years.

    ”Paging Mr. Bond. Paging Mr. Bond. Please pick up the white courtesy phone.”

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 11:09am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    1

    Where Is The Pandemic?

    Do we really think OUR goVt will provide accurate numbers?   Do we think we will get an nCov test for free?  My plan is to keep an ear to the grapevine.  We women talk.  I have a daughter who did some sleuthing to find out the skinny on someone and it just took looking at social media and placing a call to the right person checked court view and she learned, everything she wanted to know.  If the #1 goal is social stability you better have friends in the know on speed dial.  Maybe its time for a haircut, longtime hairdressers know the dirt(I mean skinny) on a lot of people.  Check in with your neighbors they may tell you something they would not publicly post. Be observant. Just a thought.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 11:21am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    0

    Reasonable assessment from Dr. review of 138 cases

    For a MSM article....,Good, easy to read summary with good questions and comments on control measures

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infections-frieden/index.html

    Highlights:

    What does this mean?

    The virus appears to be quite infectious, health care workers are at especially high risk, and we urgently need more information about just how infectious the virus is. The virus might well be impossible to contain -- just as the common cold and influenza can't be stopped, but the health and societal impacts can be blunted.

    Where is the novel coronavirus going next?

    Only time will tell. The next few days and weeks will determine:
    • If sustained transmission begins in other countries, which unfortunately seems likely.
    • If it does, whether it can be contained, which unfortunately seems unlikely.
    • How severe the illness is among those who are infected, which we still don't know.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infections-frieden/index.html

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 11:31am

    missy

    missy

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    Joined: Sep 15 2009

    Posts: 9

    1

    A counter-argument re engineered virus claim

    Sorry if already posted, but I don't see this article, addressing the other study: https://theprepared.com/blog/no-the-2019-ncov-genome-doesnt-actually-seem-engineered-from-hiv/?fbclid=IwAR3z466zz8Ery-efVzTtJYnbUepSTh_5npTqIBQlP-fL-c7VnXNvquoEFtM

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 11:32am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    Thoughts on possible nCoV transmission through sexual contact, ongoing infectivity?

    While making the list of my understanding of what is "known" presently about nCoV, I realized that its stands to reason that the virus may be spread through sexual contact. Obviously that may incorporate established infection routes through the mouth, nose, eyes, and breaks in skin. And there's at least one case of nCoV transmission of the virus to a newborn, possibly through the birth canal. (Anything out there to suggest it can be passed through breast milk?) There's also evidence of transmission through feces.

    There's been reference to mucus membranes, but I haven't seen anything specifically on transmission through semen or vaginal secretions.

    Recall that Ebola patients tested positive for the virus in their eye secretions and semen months to more than a year after being "cured". (See excerpt below from 2016 CDC release)

    "Scientists have long known that Ebola virus can survive in certain sites within the body that the immune system may have trouble reaching, including the testes and eyes. This report provides new understanding of how long virus fragments can persist in the body. It also is shedding light on the individual differences in the length of time that traces of Ebola can remain in survivors’ semen."

    Anyone have any information or research on this? What are your thoughts in general on the potential for nCoV transmission through sexual contact, and implications if true for public and personal health?

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 11:33am

    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1329

    3

    fact based communication is good

    Gossip and rumor mongering is not.  The tongue can be a more dangerous weapon than any virus if it's wagging out of control without judicious supratentorial oversight.  Caution is in order so as to not cause harm or hurt to innocent entities.  Just sayin'.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 11:48am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    4

    Fact based communication is often in short supply

    ao - I would trust the personal testimony of a nurse friend before I would rely on the “official, approved” script.  Don’t be too quick to discount the power of community!  My hairdresser has had clients for 25 years and trust me when I tell you people tell their hairdresser stuff they may not tell their spouse.  Poopoo my input but sometimes its not what you know but who.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 12:01pm

    gkcjrrt

    gkcjrrt

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 20 2016

    Posts: 27

    0

    Evidence so far argues away from Bio-weapon hypothesis vs natural or bio-accident release

    The WHO released results from China indicating 82% of cases are mild (not a very effective weapon in terms of lethality).

    This paper -https://www.pnas.org/content/113/11/3048.full-  4 years old- specifically:

    1) identifies the ease and likelihood that an infectious virus  SARS-CoV could emerge out of the animal virus reservoir.

    "Focusing on SARS-like virus sequences isolated from Chinese
    horseshoe bats, the results indicate a significant threat posed by
    WIV1-CoV"

    2)  On the other hand - also details the manufacture of a specific chimera that appears to yield high infection rates like nCoV-2019.

    This manuscript describes efforts to extend
    surveillance beyond sequence analysis, constructing chimeric and
    full-length zoonotic coronaviruses to evaluate emergence potential ....Both full-length and chimeric WIV1-CoV readily replicated

    efficiently in human airway cultures and in vivo, suggesting
    capability of direct transmission to humans.

    3 )  Monoclonal antibodies were effective treatment whereas vaccination was not

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 12:02pm

    Alexis

    Alexis

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 65

    1

    Who new announcement encourages countries to prepare

    For potential of increase cases outside of China. I think this is there way of finally saying it. Check for the update but now for last minute, what did I forget to prepare!!

     

    shortage of n95 considering respirator (2 in rotation)and sanitization Of each in case family gets sick and I have to take care of them?? I know seems overkill but I’m nurse and 3 children 4 and under, one with asthma and immune deficiency so I am always mom on duty!

    would love any last minute tips!

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 12:05pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    3

    Mucous Membranes routs of entry

    Please see you tube by Dr. Ken Berry, MD. Eyes, nose, mouth, but (pun) also anus, private parts.  Wash hands before using toilet.  I think I will avoid all public restrooms in the future.  Adult diapers?

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 12:10pm

    HaikuJr

    HaikuJr

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 6

    3

    Haburashi

    Lone wolf sniffs the air

    We need to move our toothbrosh?

    Beware the hunter

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 12:18pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    3

    Levity

    To Sparky1:  Thank G*d I am old enough to have had sex and done drugs before they killed you.

    To AKGranny with Grit:  New govt. ruling : All hairdressers must now show proof of PhD in psychology to fix hair.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 12:43pm

    TomKellyTAK

    TomKellyTAK

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 12

    0

    Actual deaths in China to date. ...

    Actual deaths in China to date. ...

    As of February 8, 2020, The epoch times calculates roughly “nearly 1,000 people incinerated per day” in Wuhan .  Assuming 50% are from the corona virus that means 500 victims per day. * Assuming this volume has begun February 1 that would be 4000 for February to date. The projected amount for February assuming no increase would be 29×500 which equals Roughly 15,000.

    January might be a smaller number per day but still assuming 1/4 the volume of February for 30 days would be Around 5000. The total would be for wohan of 20,000 bodies cremated By the end of February.

    Report: Two Wuhan Funeral Homes Cremating 300+ Bodies a Day

    calculating a ratio:

    According to NHC, “Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total,” as of February 6. Using this same projected ratio (75%) on the current deaths in China the official Deaths in Wuhan are approximately 75% of 722 or Around 550. The estimated actual Deaths in wohan are 9000 to date. The ratio of variance is 9000÷550 Or roughly 16 times the official figure. The total official deaths in China are 722 as of today. 722 deaths × 16 ratio of variance equals 11,500 say 12,000 unofficial deaths in China as of 8 February. Any future official figures can be multiplied by 16 to determine the approximate number of deaths in China.

    *The calculation of roughly 50% coronavirus victims is from the details of the epoch times article which state one funeral home had 116 bodies of which 56 were either suspected (probably labeled pneumonia) or known coronavirus fatalities.

    See:

    Amid Virus Outbreak, Funeral Home Officials in Wuhan Reveal Sharp Increase in Cremations

    Amid Virus Outbreak, Funeral Home Officials in Wuhan Reveal Sharp Increase in Cremations

    Amid Virus Outbreak, Funeral Home Officials in Wuhan Reveal Sharp Increase in Cremations

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 12:45pm

    Lisa Mooney

    Lisa Mooney

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 25 2020

    Posts: 21

    2

    WHO Video Update

    https://youtu.be/yfYyglrb1sY

    Interesting, the numbers speak for themselves.

    They sent 250k test kits to all WHO regions.

    This is a PCR test, it requires sophisticated labs.

    Plus primer and probes to replicate.

    So under reporting is no doubt a reality.

    Now and as we move forward.

    1/ Many with mild illness will be diagnosed with common cold or mild influenza

    2/ There are not enough kits to test everyone we should

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 1:03pm

    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 388

    1

    Another nCov vector?

    My better half and I get all our toilet paper, paper towels and tissues from this mob:

    But really, we love toilet paper because for us, it's our way of making a difference. We started Who Gives A Crap when we learnt that 2.3 billion people across the world don't have access to a toilet. That's roughly 40% of the global population and means that around 289,000 children under five die every year from diarrhoeal diseases caused by poor water and sanitation. That's almost 800 children per day, or one child every two minutes.

    We thought that was pretty crap. So in July 2012, Simon, Jehan and Danny launched Who Gives A Crap with a crowdfunding campaign on IndieGoGo. Simon sat on a toilet in our draughty warehouse and refused to move until we had raised enough pre-orders to start production. 50 hours and one cold bottom later, we'd raised over $50,000 (see the video here!)

    We delivered our first product in March 2013 and have been thrilled to keep growing ever since. Not just because our toilet paper is gracing bathrooms across the country but also because we donate 50% of our profits to help build toilets and improve sanitation in the developing world.

    Source

    The feed stock is recycled paper from countries like Australia and processed in — guess where — China. I don't know in what part of that country the factory is located, and we have plenty of pre-nCov stock, so I'm not worried. But it does exercise my imagination to wonder if applying TP to one's nether regions could serve as a vector for something...

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 1:09pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    8

    AKGrannyWGrit said:

    Ya’all can laugh at Granny but there are only about 600,000 people in my state and there are people who know a lot of people.  Playing nice with influencers can be beneficial.  Want to know who is sick, been traveling internationally, has had relative die, what shape the hospitals are in, plug into the community whos-who network. Silly people you under-estimate Grandma’s and our incredible network!!!  Stop relying on the media and think “who do I know”.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 1:19pm

    Lightning17

    Lightning17

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 31 2020

    Posts: 14

    3

    Bio-engineered Virus

    gkcjrrt,

    I appreciate your blog posting and I'd like to add a few thoughts if I may.

    While it may be a case of semantics, I see a Bio-weapon as a Bio-engineered contagion that is purposefully developed and deployed to effect a desired strategic outcome.

    Lethality may not be the end-all objective.  The M-16 displaced the M-14 rifle in Viet Nam for many reasons but it fires a much lighter round with a very flat trajectory.  The flat trajectory was to help under-trained draftees hit their targets (minimal bullet drop) and the .223 caliber bullet was infamous for creating higher number of  less lethal wounds.  A wounded enemy requires more resources, slows down movement etc.  Yes, an M-16 round can definitely kill you , but its propensity to wound was viewed as a benefit by many.

    My point is that it may be a mistake to  assume maximum lethality is the measure by which we judge it to be a Bio-weapon or not. If the goal was to overwhelm the medical system, cascading to infrastructure slowdowns and create social upheaval, than it is proving to be highly effective as a Bio-weapon (if indeed it is one..I don't have that knowledge).

    Second, this could be a pre-cursor to a final bio-weapon in the R&D stage and as such was still being developed. Perhaps it was being used to try and create a vaccine, perhaps it was just one of a whole matrix of bio-engineered variants under development for a bio-weapon, but for whatever reason, containment was lost and now its creating devastation in the population.

    My ardent lack of belief in coincidences has saved my skin many times.  I don't believe that the epi-center of the virus being within spitting distance of a Bio-engineering lab working on deadly corona-viruses is just a coincidence (my opinion as I have no facts that support or contradict the assertion).

    Thanks for posting and for allowing me to engage my two cents worth.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 1:27pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    Not laughing at you

    I am in total agreement with your observations.  I was just being ironical.  Please flick on safety.  Around here buttering up the postmaster at Christmas greases some wheels.

    Thank you to all contributiors.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 1:48pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    UV Sterilizers - Cell Phones, Masks maybe?

    UV light sterilizers, primarily marketed to new parents to sanitizer their baby's bottles and other stuff, could end up being the go to Christmas gift this year, since you can also do your phone or other electronics.

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07W7HSDPZ/

    I wonder if it could sterilizer masks as well? I see masks as being on of the weak links in pandemic protection since they have a limited use time until moisture build up makes them unusable. Throwing them away is going to cost money and run thru any supply rather quickly.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 1:48pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    Supply source

    I  have no connection to this company other than being a long time customer.  They offer good prices, quality products and good service.  Organic food, nutritional supplements, herbals, homeopathics.  I just found they have a big variety of colloidal silver products from soaps, sprays, gels and liquids.  They are in Fargo, ND.  Good hunting, keep on prepping.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 1:59pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    2

    Importance of formal and informal information networks--and knowing who to trust

    Especially when something's afoot. I tend to rely on multiple source for both and always consider the sources and the motives behind the message. Then I gauge those against their actions, trusting my "lying eyes and ears" more often than the official narrative. nCoV is a perfect case in point.

    I also try to stay in low-profile "grey woman" mode as much as possible to minimize the amount of information circulating about me and mine. It can be helpful in gathering information as well.

    Besides my minimal use of email, PP is my only other exception to my participation in social media.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 2:00pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    3

    Clarification on Article of Asymptomatic Transmission in Germany

    A New England Journal of Medicine paper on a Germany case where a woman with the virus, transmitted it to other people while NOT showing any symptoms made quite a splash recently. Turns out it wasn't exactly true.

    The woman did have mild symptoms and was taking medicine for it, though the people she meet with didn't know this. The paper was published before the authorities were able to speak with the original woman.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

    Asymptomatic transmission may still be occurring but this points to the need to view all information in this fastly evolving crisis with a grain or salt (aka a bit of skepticism).

    One point to that:

    "The German cluster does reveal another interesting aspect about the new virus, Drosten says. So far most attention has gone to patients who get seriously ill, but all four cases in Germany had a very mild infection. That may be true for many more patients, Drosten says, which may help the virus spread. “There is increasingly the sense that patients may just experience mild cold symptoms, while already shedding the virus,” he says. “Those are not symptoms that lead people to stay at home.”

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 2:08pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    Poo wipes

    A while ago, I started researching recyclable poop rags.  There is info on the web at some prepper sites.  I settled on a supply of terry washcloths from the dollar store.  Easier for me than making my own.  When used, treated like cloth diapers.  If any moms have hints, here, please share.

    I drop rinsed rags into a dilute bleach bath or vinegar bath then washed as regular clothes.  I still use paper TP, presently, but who knows about future supply.  Not fun, but necessary.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 2:56pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    5

    Dealing With Feces More Of A Caregiver Concern

    To me, the concern about dealing with feces that might be infected is more of a concern for those of us who maybe caregivers than those of us who have the illness. If you are wiping your own butt, you don't need to worry about getting the virus from your own poop. Either you have it or you don't. Its not going to suddenly show up in your stools unless you were exposed and have the virus already.

    Now as a caregiver, yes you need to watch out when dealing with an infected patient, be it friends, family or children.

    Once you can confirm, or highly suspect a fellow member of your household has nCov, and decide to quarantine them in a separate room, perhaps rather than let them use a bathroom, your better option might be a bucket toilet kept in the room itself.

    Here stocking up on bags of sawdust or cat litter might be advised. Heavy trash bags as well. Depending on the volume will dictate how often you remove it, though I'd probably do it often to cut down on smell.

    A separate trash can outside of the home with a sign "BioHazard" might be called for too. If possible dispose of thru a outside window rather than carrying it thru the house.

    You could probably get by with just typical toilet paper for the patient, though if they are bed ridden and they soil their sheets, then clean up using sanitizing wipes is probably called for.

    I dealt with a bed ridden parent with Althiemer's a few years back, its not fun. Having to worry if the clothes, wipes and bedding carries the risk of making you sick as well, isn't something I like to think much on.

    I suspect unfortunately, things I don't want to think on are going to become unavoidable in the next year or beyond.

    ---

    ADDED: I volunteer at a local animal adoption group. A few months back, three kittens were diagnosed with Ringworm, which isn't a worm but a virus which causes hair loss and bare skin spots and which can be transmitted to humans. Most government animal pounds euthanize an animal with ringworm because it is hard to get rid of and infectious.

    For the towels we used as bedding and to clean with, I got a industrial trash can with the clamshell lid. Soiled towels went into that, then Lysol was sprayed on them. Weekly we took them to a laundry mat and ran them thru on hot. After cleaning the cages, we would back out, spraying Lysol on surfaces and the floor. At the exit we would pull of the apron and rubber gloves, then put them into the bag of soiled cat litter.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 3:23pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    Chinese Seafood Market Probably NOT Initial Point of Virus Origin

    This article argues that evidence does not support the idea the Chines seafood market was the original point of virus origin, instead a "patient zero" brought the virus to the market, which then spread among the customers.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally

    The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.

    Earlier reports from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization had said the first patient had onset of symptoms on 8 December 2019—and those reports simply said “most” cases had links to the seafood market, which was closed on 1 January.

    Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December. “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.

    More evidence to support the idea this might have come from a lab.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 3:38pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    4

    Caregiving hygiene for bedridden: puppy papers

    Recommend getting a pack or two of puppy or dog training papers to place under the bedridden individual.  They make for easier clean-ups and are pretty inexpensive, about $10 for a pack of 65 at Big Lots.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 3:43pm

    CCBW

    CCBW

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 24 2010

    Posts: 15

    3

    sterilize masks

    What about using ozone to sterilize masks. Iknow your supposed to throw them out but if you can’t get more so make do. Ozone CPAP Disinfector is an ozone generator that effectively eradicates any bacteria & viruses that could be possibly growing inside your CPAP equipment. Ozone treatment kills 99.99% of all bacteria in your CPAP equipment. Especially in the areas that you can't reach. Some also have UV. One on Amazon  Includes UV Disinfection, Ozone Sterilization And Mirror Reflection. Ozone Disinfection In 35 Minutes. Quiet and Comfortable Use. Not Just For CPAP Equipment! Multiple Sterilization Uses: Includes UV Disinfection, Ozone Sterilization And Mirror Reflection. Ozone Disinfection In 35 Minutes. Quiet and Comfortable Use. Not Just For CPAP Equipment! Multiple Sterilization Uses cost is $129.99 The ozone should pass through the mask as long as there to many. Thanks

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 3:46pm

    CCBW

    CCBW

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 24 2010

    Posts: 15

    0

    sterilize masks

    PS: I know you need electricity

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:06pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    Link On Ozone Machine Please

    Thanks CCBW, I wasn't aware of machines that also used ozone. Price seems pretty reasonable too. Ozone gas would penetrate the material of a mask while UV would simply sterilizer the surface. I'm thinking of setting up a small table/station at the door, where upon entry I would put things like my car keys, phone, maybe mask and other miscellaneous pocket items which can't be simply dunked in a bath of bleach water into a sterilizer.

    Goggles and gloves could be then put into a bucket with bleach water at the station. Perhaps a tote for the soles of your shoes to soak in as well.

    In all honesty I suspect that most of the protective measure we are discussing are overboard and won't get used, but its nice to explore the options in case it all goes South on us.

    BTW at this time I don't expect the electricity to go out here in the US, nor other critical utilities, so I'm not factoring in loss of electricity into my planning. Its a flaw I agree but one that I don't think has a high enough probability to make plans for. If it does go out for an extended period we are all fraked.

    EDITED: Meant to say: "which can't be simply dunked"

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:08pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    1

    China: Variation in nCoV testing confounds diagnosis; false negatives may miss more than half of infected

    [Translated, Google, from FluTrackers 2/8/20 post, h/t Sally Furniss]

    How is the "false negative" of new coronary pneumonia caused?

    [edit, bold added]

    "Critical medical expert Wang Chen, academician of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, said in an interview with CCTV on February 5. The positive rate is 30% to 50%. There are still many false negatives by collecting suspected cases of throat swabs. "In other words, more than half of people who are truly infected with the new coronavirus may be" negative ".

    "From the perspective of respiratory specimens, alveolar lavage fluid is more sensitive than sputum As a result, the result of sputum is higher than that of the pharynx. Therefore, the more critical patients are, the higher the diagnosis rate is because the alveolar lavage fluid can be collected.

    Another key factor is the sensitivity of the kit. They believe that although the viral load will affect the positive rate of the test, it is ultimately the limitation of reagent sensitivity."

    Complete original article in Chinese:  https://www.yicai.com/news/100495371.html

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:10pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    Lets not forget the power of fear

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-08/coronavirus-gives-schools-a-lesson-in-another-contagion-fear

    By the time the good news arrived from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it was too late. A teenage exchange student, in Philadelphia for two weeks from China, had fallen ill and then tested negative for the coronavirus. But anxiety had already proved the stronger contagion.
    It had spread among parents and students at William Penn Charter School, an independent Quaker school. Many children stayed home. Regional schools nixed athletic events and service projects with Penn Charter. A public-school bus driver tried to deny rides to the school’s students. A health-care professional canceled an appointment with a Penn Charter student, citing the coronavirus.

    “The experience reminded us how powerful fear is, and how contagious fear is,” said Sharon Sexton, Penn Charter’s director of marketing and communications.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:23pm

    gallantfarms

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 18 2009

    Posts: 67

    1

    Genetic Match to Military Virus Patent?

    I read this in a comments section of an article "debunking" man-made source of corona.  Can this be verified or is this person making stuff up?

    Go to the NIH’s BLAST database and search for a genetic match to virus serial # AVP78033.1 and it comes up with a 100% match for the “Wuhan Seafood Market Virus”. AVP78033.1 was registered with the NIH in March of 2018 by the Chinese Military.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:30pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    A site I visit once a year

    I warn you, this is not for the faint of heart.  Not sure if this is a military weapons site or what or who this guy running it is.  But it's been up for several years, and I don't even remember how I found it.  I just visited it again to see if his numbers had changed.  Do not look if you are easily upset.

    List of countries forecast for 2025

    deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 4:47pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    2

    Study: Half of Canadians taking extra precautions due to nCoV pandemic; near universal awareness of pandemic

    Half of Canadians taking extra precautions as coronavirus continues to spread around the globe

    Excerpts, key findings:

    *  Three-in-ten (30%) residents (Canadians) say they are worried that they may contract the virus

    * Four-in-ten (40%) are concerned about the impact the outbreak may have on their community

    *  Three-quarters (76%) are concerned about the impact on the global community

    *  Half of Canadians are taking some form of extra care, whether that is washing their hands more often or avoiding public places

    *  Half (48%) say they would cancel any plans to travel areas in and around China that have been most affected, while just one-in-twelve (8%) say the coronavirus would not affect their travel decisions at all

    * 33% say they are not confident in their province’s own front-line health services to handle a coronavirus outbreak if the problem does, indeed, worsen in this country

    * Seven-in-ten Canadians say that they feel the threat of the coronavirus when it comes to an outbreak in Canada is largely overblown. Three-in-ten say they feel the threat is real and should be taken seriously.

    * Canadians are near-unanimously aware of this health issue. The coronavirus outbreak scores as the second highest of any issue ever asked about by the Angus Reid Institute, with just one per cent of respondents having not heard much about it.

    Angus Reid Institute article: Source

    Details study results by age, gender, region, education and other demographics:  Source

    Full Study:  http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020.02.04_Coronavirus.pdf

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 5:09pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    nCoV and HIV; retracted study link w/author comment; NIH BLAST link, tutorial re: HIV "inserted" genetic material

    Hi Gallantfarms,

    I posted this comment with links a few days ago on another PP thread:  https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-how-bad-will-it-get/#comment-304854.  (You'll find the comment immediately after comment #54.)

    I think you'll find the link you're looking for, and then some.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 5:54pm

    pat the rat

    pat the rat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2011

    Posts: 149

    2

    North Korea

    If this Wu Han virus can get into North Korea,we are in deep trouble! I see it already has 1 case.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 6:04pm

    CCBW

    CCBW

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 24 2010

    Posts: 15

    2

    ozone

      Here is a link to info on ozone https://www.wqpmag.com/eliminating-bacteria-ozone

    hope it helps thanks

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 8:42pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 65

    0

    Ozone O3

    To the best of my knowledge, the US is the only country in the world which specifically prohibits medical (which may include disinfectant applications) uses of ozone.  It is common in the alternative practitioner 'recipe book' in Latin America.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:09pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 730

    3

    I read the Jama Study of 138 patients

    Tommy,  I read that study.  I must be missing something they followed patients for less than 10 days.   and of the 138, 47 were released ( as recovered or recovering ) and 6 died - the disposition of the remaining 85 were still hospitalized with a total of 26.1% requiring intensive care.  The CFR in the study was 4.3% .  Yes, with no disposition of more than 60% in the study.  SO, even if only 6 more died in the remaining 60%, you would have a CFR two times the 4.3%.   So, this study suggests CFR or at least 4.3%.   but likely much higher.   Of course this is a sample set of hosptalized patients, not a set of general infected.  So, its very hard to make a good inference here,  As 1% of flu is hospitalized with a CFR of 10% from that group.    The real question, now lies in - how many people are severe.   1% , 25% ?   There is no way to know this. However, there is one thing for sure - is with supportive care at least 1/2 the patients requiring intensive care will survive.  But, without it, my guess the majority will parish.  The medical systems in most countries cannot bear the burden of an additional virus that is epidemic.    So, this, at minimum, will cause many more deaths of all causes.    But my guess looking at the real leaked info, is there is much more serious than a flu.  In general, being a coronavirus, the assumption would have to be given likeness of other coronaviruses such as the spanish flu, SARS and MERS.  My best guess, is this causes serious illness in about 20-30% of cases, with a mortality rate of 10% of those given supportive care and 20% of those if supportive care is not available.   as evidence of a 20-30% serious rate, I will submit the US cases.  The washington case, was severe, and required hospitalization and intensive care.    And as of yesterday, the first two cases in california have now been admitted the hospital as severe cases,  Note that these were early cases found, you now see what happens once you get to week 2 -3 in infection.  These 3 cases equal 25% of all the US cases - this would reflect a random sample and one that was not based on hospitalized and severe when they were first followed.. So using the Jama study combined with the small US sampling , I believe my numbers will turn to correct.  this would suggest an over-all CFR of 5%.  However, it could be half this if all receive the proper supportive care.  Additionally, we need to watch the development of the remaining US 12 cases, over the next 2-3 weeks.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:32pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    2

    China mortality rate 17%?

    1st check out this scmp article touting recovery for serious and critical patients

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3049601/coronavirus-recovery-rates-promising-infectious-disease-expert-says

    2nd read this interpretation of the “recovery rates”

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-08-do-the-math-china-press-conference-admits-coronavirus-mortality-17-percent.html

     

    Does this logic make sense?  Could China be inadvertently telling us their mortality rate is 17%?  whatever the case it does seem unusual  that chinese media is touting a less than 1% critical recovery and a 6% serious recovery rate....???

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:32pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 730

    1

    Re O3

    It is hazardous to human, but again many disinfectants are.  Here in the US, I believe chemicals such as Chlorine Dioxide, and other chlorine products , are preferred.   When disinfecting serious infective agents, UV light is norm I believe.   O3 is definitely disinfecting, but its use may have more issues,

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:38pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 730

    3

    Re North Korea

    Yes, if it got in there, its everywhere.   I believe I read a new Italian case, it may be somewhere else - not sure,  where a case had a history of travel to singapore, when they only had 28 cases reported there.. So something like an italian goes to singapore, with only 28 confirmed cases, but comes back positive for ncov.   So, that should give a better picture of how prevalent it is vs confirmed.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:43pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    2

    Re: Jama study

    Good point about the remaining cases without disposition, that could change final #s quite a bit.  it seems like  4 +weeks needs to pass (after a diagnosis)to get more accurate study data...especially since severe symptoms can pop up after 3 weeks..

    regarding cases requiring critical care...i think there was data or a small analysis early from china (grain of salt) that estimated 20% needed this level of care.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 9:49pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    8

    Nice tweet on “coronavirus’s exceptional math ability!!”

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:47am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    8

    Thoughts on PP success and sustainability over nCoV pandemic, subsequent long emergency

    Chris, Adam and the PP team have been producing outstanding videos and content on YouTube and other platforms pretty much nonstop for the past few weeks, in addition to getting ready for the 2020 PP Summit in May. Add to that stress of recent censorship and discrediting of Chris and PP.

    Within hours of posting, each YT video has 250K - ???K views, 3K+ comments, thousands of YT subscribers, and scores of new PP members.   Obviously, people are hungry for (or in the case of TPTB/trolls and shills, threated by) timely and accurate information from a trusted resource like Chris and PP. In turn, Chris & Co. are driven in large part by a desire to inform, serve and help as many people prepare for the crisis now underway.

    Newbies and long term PP viewers alike have come to eagerly await now daily video uploads. Understandably, many of us get concerned about Chris' well-being when there's no video upload or we don't see a post or other content from Chris or Adam over 24 hours or more.

    We saw that here on the PP site yesterday, and thankfully Adam checked-in to let us know that all is well. Today, there are several commenters on Chris' last video wondering why there's no new video today, and expressing concern for his health and safety.

    There's every indication that this nCoV pandemic will go on for many more weeks and months, and the impacts may be extensive, possibly lasting years.

    Is this heightened level of activity and output from Chris, Adam and PP sustainable?

    As PP members, content consumers and contributors, are we mindful of the limits of growth for PP and our critically important human and technological resources? We may need to temporarily or permanently adjust our expectations, e.g., to reduced number or frequency anticipated videos, content updates, or technology enhancements. (I say this after somewhat guiltily suggesting via PM to Adam some enhancements to the PP website today! :-/  )  And/or maybe we increase our level of support and contributions, e.g., perform/post information and research, provide expertise, buy the book Prosper! if you haven't already.

    I'm sure that Chris and Adam have and continue to address PP growth issues, oftentimes resulting in positive changes in the PP site and offerings.

    Still, the nCoV pandemic may well be the Black Swan crisis that sets a series of cascading crises in motion. How can we best grow, conserve and/or deploy our own and PP resources to remain viable through what may be a very long emergency?

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:35am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    Medical question

    Because western medicine is a system of sick care, treatment doesn't start until symptoms appear.  What I want to know, what is the virus doing, where is it hiding out during those, up to 14 days, before any symptoms appear?  A time during which a victim may be shedding virus particles.

    Depending on initial contact load shedding and symptoms may appear sooner or later.  However, for patient to start shedding virus, it has to be infecting and growing and increasing in cells somewhere.  The focus has seemed to be on the cells of the deep lung that result in the life threatening pneumonia and cytokine storm phase.  A later phase.

    Where is the virus hanging out and replicating and shedding before symptoms manifest?  Does it just attach to any handy mucous membrane and start working its way inward, destroying cells as it goes?

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:52am

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    0

    Hiding and preparing

    The virus is hiding in bats and biological warfare laboratories. There it is nice and cool.

    The summer will eradicate it from the population.

    Still we can expect more of the same. The leaks are not limited to Chinese labs. Also i find it questionable that the swine fever is mainly in Asia. Why didn't it spread to West countries. I have become very suspicious about covert wars being fought without our knowledge or consent.

    So prepare for the next event, this time it will target maybe Caucasian people. And maybe it is not corona.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 4:37am

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2019

    Posts: 25

    6

    ICU beds and ventilators in USA

    This study estimates the ICU beds and ventilators available in the US.  In summary, there are about 20K available ICU beds, and a bit less that one (0.96) ventilators per ICU bed.  Ventilators are necessary for the about 20% of nCov infected who become serious with ARDS.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3840149/#!po=0.819672

    edit:  there are compact ventilators on the market for home use that can connect to supplemental oxygen.  There are also reports of effective oral antivirals that are effective against nCov.  Home treatment may be an option if ICU beds are overwhelmed.  There are options.  https://aeroflowinc.com/philips-respironics-trilogy-ventilator/

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 5:14am

    Rector

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2010

    Posts: 381

    4

    How Coronavirus Kills - Video

    I suspect this has been posted already, but with so many comments - I can't keep up.  This is fascinating and will be useful if home care becomes a reality.

    Rector

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 6:20am

    CCBW

    CCBW

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 24 2010

    Posts: 15

    2

    ozone

    The question was about not knowing how many N95 masks to have they are getting harder to find. So what about cleaning them with a CPAP cleaning device. Ozone is used in CPAP cleaning here is an ad for So clean ad link: https://www.alaskasleep.com/blog/activated-oxygen-the-proven-way-to-clean-your-cpap It states the FDA cleared activated oxygen to sanitize “reusable” medical devices in 2003, activated oxygen also know as ozone. Now I know We are off label with N95 masks they are not reusable but if things get bad later in the out brake and the mask is in good condition. So what about cleaning them with a CPAP cleaning device. I don’t have one to play with. Question is how many masks could you arrange in the device and still have the ozone pass through? If you could only do one at a time it’s not worth while. If it’s 6 or 7 maybe. Well I know it’s off the wall but I’m a farmer like most self employed people we look at things from all angles. If you don’t know CCBW stands for Chief Cook and Bottle Washer I have to "try" to do it all. Thanks

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 6:30am

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2019

    Posts: 25

    0

    Quadratic answer

    Yes, I would expect more variation in the real world, as the Chinese resolve one bottleneck and encounter the next.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 6:33am

    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    1

    Super spreaders confirmed

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-super-spreader-infects-57-hospital-china-continues-refuse-cdc-help

    I'm not worried about North Korea. After all even if it's in it's not gonna get out.

    What I've continually told my friends and discord: India.

    There is *no* possibility for a Chinese style lockdown in India. There are too many people packed in too small a space in too unhygenic conditions, a lockdown won't accomplish anything. Once it takes hold there and we're looking at 50+ cases the planet is just screwed.

    So far we've been lucky though. Out of the 10 most populous countries, only China has it bad. The next on the list is the US with 12 cases (at the time i checked). But i fear we won't stay this lucky for long....

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 6:44am

    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1329

    0

    cruise ships and rumors

    I have a friend who is on the MS Westerdam presently.  Just for the record, there is NO ONE infected on that ship.  Nevertheless, fear has kept 5 countries from allowing them to dock after they had a port of call at Hong Kong.  This is how rumors can hurt innocent people.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:02am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 65

    7

    re hiding preparing and summer

    The last global pandemic was a coronavirus, the Spanish Flu of 1917-18.  It went around the world twice over the course of 18 months before it 'burned out'.  This suggests that warmer weather will not naturally eradicate it.

    Furthermore, countries which are preparing massive field hospitals (according to the media: Vietnam, in particular) are tropical countries.  Singapore is reporting more cases, which is a tropical city. Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines are all tropical countries.  Large parts of China are subtropical (like Florida) so this 'warmer weather eradication' sounds like so much wishful thinking.

    As for this being a largely Asian phenomenon, it could have been accidental, could have been deliberate (e.g. suicidal maniac) and could have been political (internal power struggle to overthrow CCP leadership, pro-democracy agitators, excuse to lock down the country in light of Hong Kong protests) and could have been economic (food shortages and labor excesses can be solved by eliminating laborers.)  We don't know.

    As for 'shadow wars', this concept was suggested in Frederik Pohl's "The Cool War" in 1981.  Interestingly enough, the book takes place in the future, in the year 2020.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:17am

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Rumors

    “I have a friend who is on the MS Westerdam presently.  Just for the record, there is NO ONE infected on that ship.  Nevertheless, fear has kept 5 countries from allowing them to dock after they had a port of call at Hong Kong.  This is how rumors can hurt innocent people.”

    And NO ONE is infected in Africa either.  OR perhaps we should re-word that to it APPEARS no one is infected, OR at this time No One is infected.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:17am

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Rumors

    “I have a friend who is on the MS Westerdam presently.  Just for the record, there is NO ONE infected on that ship.  Nevertheless, fear has kept 5 countries from allowing them to dock after they had a port of call at Hong Kong.  This is how rumors can hurt innocent people.”

    And NO ONE is infected in Africa either.  OR perhaps we should re-word that to it APPEARS no one is infected, OR at this time No One is infected.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:20am

    Hutton

    Hutton

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    Hong Kong

    I have a colleague flying in from HK for a meeting- which I will be attending?  I have no idea whether its safae to be meeting in person?

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 7:44am

    kleymo

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    students from Beijing

    I teach a family that flew back from Beijing the day before the borders were closed. They are in self-quarentine for two weeks before interacting with anyone. They had no problem with this. One parent works for a large corporation here, and work has absolutely no problem with this. I personally would meet with no one who has not been in quarantine for two weeks. I have too many loved ones. Meet via skype or something.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 8:22am

    Lightning17

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    General Question about virus transmission

    My apologies if this has been covered already.

    If the virus is pervasive in our country and we are all self quarantining , is it possible to keep the virus out of municipal water systems?  I assume a water borne virus would infect people bathing, drinking, etc.

    Would fluoride in our water kill these virus's?

    Thanks in advance.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 8:50am

    Desogames

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    Don't worry that much yet

    Look, it's a question of statistics. If you meet somebody from hong kong now the chances of you getting infected are absolutely miniscule. Hong kong's media has every incentive right now of publishing as truthful a numbers as possible, regardless if its part of china or not.

    There are currently 29 confirmed cases in hong kong. If we take 10 times that for the unknowns floating about, that's still only 290 people out of 7 and 1/2 million. The chances of that the person that you meet is one of the infected, or even that there was even 1 infected on a plane out of hong kong, are very very very very very small.

    The reason why everybody is freaking out so much on complete and utter conspiracy sites like this, is because the chance *is not 0%*. Even if it's 0,0000000001%, for the future's sake, that is a problem.

    Because this thing can spread before symptoms of illness show, whoever *does* have it, *will* spread it before we catch that person. Because people only go look to be tested when they notice something (significantly) wrong with themselves, and at that point we already have more infected people walking around, also not showing symptoms and spreading it.

    That's why the Rnaught is so important, because if 1 case pops up, and it has an R0 of 4, you know you need to catch 5 infected people. If you only catch 2 more infected, there is a very high probability you missed one and need to either be on the lookout for the next round or continue searching.

    Then there is just bad luck. Know why japan is 2nd highest with infected, even before the cruise ship? Because the first guy to catch it was a bus driver driving Wuhan tourists around. You can essentially call that a super spreader.

    China knows all this and now that the virus within their borders has progressed so far, they know the only way to stop it from spreading is to stop people from meeting. Even an invisible carrier can't spread disease if he/she doesn't meet anybody else. Hence the lock downs. That's the best evidence we have for asymptomatic spread, because if it only spreads when somebody gets sick, that's fine. Just isolate that person and everybody from the moment they started showing sickness. At the moment, we need to isolate somebody and everybody they met from an invisible moment of contraction

    Thus; the calls on this site and by others to for heavens sake prepare. Because every government except the chinese is seriously underestimating this (mainly because the chinese refuse to give out all the data they have, or even 10% of the data they have) meaning this thing is spreading locally in places we don't know about yet.

    Once the full extent of the danger becomes apparant, every country with infections will just have a nation wide lock down. Meaning supply issues meaning buy supplies now. Either that or they choose to let the virus run its course and kill 10-15% of the population. Just like with the Spanish flu. And yes, regardless of what the CFR is now, once the best care runs out because there's more sick people then beds, it'll shoot up like crazy. Do not underestimate how many humans exist on this planet.

    Considering i don't like those odds, i've not only bought supplies for self quarantine but also a full face mask and other protection so i can move around in a severe epidemic without catching it myself or transporting it inside into my domicile.

    Best case scenario, i'll have some bitchin eye/dust protection if i need to sand down some stairs again. Worst case... i get to live.

    So just to wrap up with the original question; sure it's still safe. In fact! Catching this thing right now is one of the best alternative strategies you can have. I mean, preparing to survive this level of epidemic without getting sick is costly. I spent 400 euros in a week, and that's with the expectation of having to go out during the epidemic because i simply can't afford to stock up a year or more worth of food.

    So, if you're poor and know you're going to catch it anyway, catch it early, and get the best possible hospital care. Even if you have to go into ICU - As long as there's a bed, the chances of you dying are as high as with the regular flu. This is based on the deaths outside of china with accurate and low confirmed case counts.

    That's not 0% either, but it's sure better then being infected no. 37,212,358....

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 8:59am

    Desogames

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    Droplet transmission

    Transmission wise all you need to worry about at the moment is so called droplet transmission. Those are the particles you release when you cough or sneeze:

    Those things.

    So far we have no evidence of waterborne transmission or aerosol transmission. The latter is when the virus particles can transfer from those droplets to airborne particles that are always everywhere. Even in china there is no evidence from this: If it was the case, the hazmat people would be running in true full gear - those pressurized suits with their own air supply cut off from the world. The worst we've seen em do is spray the streets and buildings with cloud of disinfectant - which lines up with whats below.

    SO, concretely, this means outside there isn't much danger. Lots of airflow, those particles either hit the ground or the side of a building real quick. If you stay upwind from somebody it's impossible to catch whatever they have. Inside is more dangerous, because there is no air pushing air but rather thermic airflows - hot air moving up. This carries those droplet particles much much further, and some can even continue to float in air. This is why in Germany all cases so far have been family clusters. If 1 person in a house gets it, everybody gets it.

    I wouldn't take a bath after an infected person took one.... but generally speaking it won't survive in water systems. If it did; we'd see the Chinese hand out bottled water en masse and turn off the taps nation wide while telling everybody that everything is fine.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:41am

    Matties

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    re hiding preparing and summer

    You are comparing the flu with corona. They are not the same.

    From research about SARS we know that temperature have everything to do with it. See above in my comments.

    Singapore is vulnerable not because it is hotter but it uses extensively climate control, air conditioning etc. Taken together, these observations may explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (with high temperature at high relative humidity) such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand did not have nosocomial (hospital) outbreaks of SARS.

    China is not subtropical. Not at all. It is now freezing at night in Beijing.

    From SARS we learned that it is targeting Asians much easier than other groups. This virus is derived from SARS so the assumption it will do the same is not so strange.

    The chance that Chinese will deliberately wipe out their own population is remote. Even if it is political, you don't want to inherit a devastated country.

    So there are realistically 2 options, an error from  the Chinese or a foreign interference.

    Seeing the Chinese so quickly coming out with the genetics, the first is most likely.

    It is not the first and certainly not the last mistake. Placing a level 4 bio lab with dangerous virussen in the middle of your country which is also a transport hub is one, ignoring the warnings of your doctors is one, letting everybody travel for the holidays is one and now they try to silence all critical notes from the people.

    What are they thinking ? You don't suppose the Chinese people will learn everything that happened from the outside world ? If not now then later when the dust settles.

    This is what autocratic regimes never calculate. The next ones will use the power structure they left to punish. That is why the Democrats are crapping in their pants to remove Trump.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:43am

    Mr Curious

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    Water purification

    Lightning, most municipal water is chlorinated which is antiviral. If you are concerned, get a Berkey filter for your drinking water.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 10:45am

    LabCat

    LabCat

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    Are Chris and Adam okay?

    Anybody heard from Chris and Adam?

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:06am

    nordicjack

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    Media Censorship in the USA

    The amount of censoring I see going on is appalling.  First, the removal of Chris' wikipedia page is clear censorship.   Also, now go to any video related to the virus on youtube, and you will see a context box below all directing to the WHO.  When, you read googles reason for this box, it's clear that this is here because they consider it misinformation and they are redirecting to you "factual information"   The more real information , including real studies I have tried to search for on the topic, have more and more resulted in less information on google search to the point all you get is links to cdc mostly.  and nothing else useful , except the creepy articles of main outlets regarding this is not a problem in the US for various reason.. and the flu is.

    Moving on from what is obviously being silenced now.  I want to talk about the govt crafted spin by Drs in the US being interviewed on main media outlets.   The basic theme is simple, yes this could break out, but this is the US - we have medicines here, to treat this. (right - when did we find a cure for the flu and other viruses?  other than vaccines that lack effectiveness for those who need it most ) And, that this is mild illness for most.  Oh really? based on what facts?  Most .. 60-70%?  yeah that most..  Bottom line is I am so fed up with the idiots..  like we cant have this happen here, our medical system is too good.  and its not a serious illness and dont worry about the death numbers - many many more people have this than what is confirmed.  But its not a threat to the US because our criteria wont even test people , that could have it until its way too late.

    Here is what I would grill one of these drs with in an interview if I were to give it:

    Fact,  this is a Coronavirus not a influenza virus?  yes or no?

    Fact, historically, Coronaviruses have been responsible for MERS, SARS and Spanish flu and have historically always had a CFR above 2%? ( with exception to few cold viruses - which this is not comparable )

    Fact, regardless of how many people die from the flu each year,  its only only 1/10th of one percent that will die?

    Fact, Our healthcare system is at maximum capacity, and we don't have the capacity for even the burden of a second flu?

    Fact, Of the 12 US cases, at least 3 have been hospitalized as severe, that is 25% hospitalization rate compared to 1% of the flu?

     

    So, you see  I would make them look like idiots just sticking to the most essential facts.. without all the other white noise.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:09am

    Lightning17

    Lightning17

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    Water Purification

    Mr. Curious,

    I knew Chlorinated water was anti-bacterial, wasn't sure about anti-viral.. Thank you for teaching me.  I do have a Berkey but its for drinking water...I was more concerned about bathing.

    Thanks again

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:10am

    Jason Wiskerchen

    Jason Wiskerchen

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    The Peak Prosperity Team are all okay.

    New video update will be available later today.  Thanks everyone for your continued support and contributions.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:17am

    nordicjack

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    Re chris and adam ok

    Lab, I would think they are ok.  But who knows.  With the powers to be disseminating such misinformation with reckless regard to human welfare,  they may be a target in some fashion. We do not have free speech in the country.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:31am

    nordicjack

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    Kunga: Medical Question

    This is a good question,  how is a virus like this , if shedding, infectious if one is not coughing and sneezing.   I would suggest its more like the transmission process or oral herpes ( 70-80% )  However, I would suggest it is more transmissible by reason of herpes virus is barely sustainable outside the body, where as the human coronavirus lives on surfaces about 3 times as long as the flu.    and 100's of times longer than herpes

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:32am

    Desogames

    Desogames

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    True numbers?

    Via Zerohedge:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/were-totally-dark-japan-not-doing-enough-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers

    It also shows a large cloud of sulphur dioxide that they say matches with burning lots of organic matter...

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 11:45am

    kunga

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    Pure speculation, the source

    Low level technician working in the Wuhan bio lab, not paid much, suddenly needs some quick cash.  Gambling debt?  Job includes disposal of infected research animals.  Has a friend of a friend of an animal carcass broker at the food market.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:04pm

    kunga

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    RE: Medical question

    Hi, nj,  What I am wondering is besides suiting up in all the protective gear, there is a way to beef up the areas the virus first attacks and stop it before it can get a foothold.  My thoughts, currently, is before I put on the mask and eye protection, coat my face with colloidal silver gel and stuff it up my nostrils, and around eyes and eyelash area.  Maybe silver gel on lose cotton plugs for nose.  And NO mouth breathing.

    I think anything silver impregnated could help.   I am probably dreaming.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:05pm

    DLWELD

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    You don’t suppose the Chinese people will learn everything

    "What are they thinking ? You don’t suppose the Chinese people will learn everything that happened from the outside world ?"

    True, but possibly the Chinese Gov't really wants to keep certain things private - so no CDC or outside help please - and it's maybe not so much holding back info on the actual death rates, or infection stats, as much as some of the effective pandemic control methods they could be forced into using - like dumping victims into the Wuhan Baosteel blast furnaces - objectional but effective and possibly required.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:10pm

    Adam Taggart

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    America Not Worried Enough

    LabCat asked: "Are Chris and Adam okay?"

    Yes, we're fine. Thank you and everyone else who has inquired over email, social media and the comments section here.

    Lots and lots going on simultaneously, as I mentioned in this comment yesterday.

    But we're OK and will continue to be here covering events as they develop.

    Chris took a day off from producing a daily video yesterday in order to catch up on much-needed sleep.

    I'm currently on a cross-country flight to meet up with him:

    Adam N95 mask

    Only one other passenger on the plane (full flight) is wearing a mask.

    In addition to the disposable N95 mask, I'm also wearing eye protection, gloves, and using copious amounts of hand sanitizer when the gloves are off. While I do have concern about ncov2019, I consider this flight more of a 'test run', as the models predict much higher travel risk in the coming months if infections indeed continue at an exponential rate.

    So far, both in the airport and on the plane, I'm sensing that my wearing this PPE (especially the mask) unnerves folks. It appears received as a rude intrusion on their complacency. My guess is this signal I'm giving by taking precautions is causing cognitive dissonance, and their brain just wants to say "Don't ruin my vibe, man"

    FYI: I'm finding it pretty impossible to keep surfaces "sterile"; I'm finding myself reapplying the sanitizer & wiping down everything often -- something to be aware of when you're traveling next.

    My big takeaway from the 99% of other passengers with zero PPE or any seeming concern for heightened hygiene: America is not worried enough about the coronavirus threat yet.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:12pm

    Wendy S. Delmater

    Status: Diamond Member

    Joined: Dec 13 2009

    Posts: 1434

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    Missed you, and you're smart

    I agree that "poor folks", or those "in the trades" who get their hands dirty, can be perhaps "uneducated but extremely smart.  I worked as an engineer in heavy construction for years and the problem-solving ability of many of these people was off the charts. They were also really good at facing reality - much better than their well-educated and occasionally snobbish "betters."  That's because they did not have money to insulate them from the consequences of foolishness. I suspect that many of the ordinary folks will handle this crisis with aplomb.

    PS - While I was away from this site you're one of the folks I missed.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:30pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

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    Adam Leading By Example!

    Love it!  We are looking forward to our information scouts updates.  Oh and your articles are going in my “2020 Year of Change” binder!  Just think 10, 20, 30 years from now someone will be reading your articles.

    Wendy, we are glad you are back!

    New subscribers, we are glad to have new contributors, welcome.

    Smiling Granny

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:40pm

    wyrldtraveler

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    wyrldtraveler said:

    In response to Matties, yes, I erred in comparing Spanish Flu (which is a H1N1 influenza variant) to Coronavirus. But the histories are similar:
    The November 2002 outbreak of SARS-CoV in Guangdong, China (not reported to WHO until the following year) continued to spread throughout 2003 and into 2004, with the last non-laboratory transmission reported in January 2004.  This was months after it had been declared 'contained' in China by WHO and laboratory-related outbreaks continued until May 2004.  It may be safe to consider this a Super-SARS for the purpose of discussion.

    "China is not subtropical. It is freezing in Beijing right now."

    You are correct, but I wrote that PARTS are subtropical; China is a big place.  For those who are not students of geography, here's a map:

    You can see that Beijing is pretty far north, on a similar latitude to the Koreas and Japan, while Shenzhen/Hong Kong is closer to northern Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar (formerly Burma).  The outbreak has spread south as well as east, west and north in China.

    Singapore is vulnerable not because it is hotter but it uses extensively climate control, air conditioning etc. Taken together, these observations may explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (with high temperature at high relative humidity) such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand did not have nosocomial (hospital) outbreaks of SARS.

    In 2003, SE Asian hospitals had climate control.  They also had shopping malls (much nicer than many in the USA, I might add.)  Singapore is not an island of modernity in a sea of backward rice farmers by any stretch of the imagination, but it is very densely populated.  Today, we should be watching Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, and Manila, not to mention Peshawar.

    As for discounting a deliberate infection of one's own people, one need only read the literature governing personality types of successful politicians to learn that successful leaders tend to be narcissistic and have psycho- or sociopathic tendencies. If you need further proof, look at the pedophilia (and other) scandals.  These people often believe themselves above the 'commoner'.

    You only need one nutjob in a position of sufficient authority to wreck the ship of State.

    Economic factors are not insignificant.  In the past year, China lost up to 75% of the pig population due to Swine Flu (how can you call yourself successful if you can't feed your guests pork at New Year's?)  They are having awful crop yields.  They have more people than they have jobs to put them in and, in a slowing economy, it's cheaper to replace them with automation.  Add the pressure from growing civil unrest and you have a plausible (if patently insane) scenario.

    If the State cannot be wrong (USSR's Ukrainian Famine, Chairman Mao's "Three Years of Natural Disasters"), then the State cannot be wrong, no matter how the policy plays out.

    Global economic collapse can now be blamed on the pandemic instead of poor policy at all levels of government and finance, while the so-called "useless eaters" pay the ultimate price.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:43pm

    R777

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    This is unbelievable, we can thank MSM for failing

    This is not only disturbing but almost criminal IMO because people are walking around in total complacency!  Just like with equity markets in the US, keep everything upbeat and ignore totally what's occurring around the world!  I pray people wake up and soon.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 12:55pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Re: Media censorship !

    Nordicjack - I am experiencing the same examples of media censorship.   Censored google searches and youtube.  General YouTube results now put garbage MSM in front and hide the “on the ground” reporting from China.  2 weeks ago there were a lot more vids from China easily accessible (granted this might also be due to China locking up those wanting to speak the truth).   Try alternate search engines like duckduckgo, when searching YouTube for coronavirus, filter  search for all videos in last hour (it takes awhile to manually sift through these but otherwise non-MSM videos will not show up with standard search)

    I’ve also posted intelligent fact based comments about Coronavirus on local news websites.  My posts have been removed by moderators. Letters to editor complaining about lack of important information and censorship have not been returned.  Makes you   Wonder what instructions have these MSM sites been given?

     

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:00pm

    Tom Sammy

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    What implications does a N. Korea outbreak have?

    By most accounts, N. Korea preparedness and ability to navigate an Ncov type epidemic is very poor. I wonder how this would play out an what implications this would have for Southeast Asia and the rest of the world?

    Sources: Five N. Koreans died from coronavirus infections

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:24pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    wyrldtraveler said:

    Kunga, please keep in mind that you can overdose on colloidial silver.  Once you turn blue, it is irreversible.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:27pm

    tourcarve

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    Short HIV Sequences Found in Wild Corona Virus

    I’d like to emphasize Chris’s caution on concluding that bioengineering as the source of this virus as fact at this point.

    Here are two things:

    First: Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the reputable Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Institute in Seattle, writes that the “Insert 1” sequence has been found to be naturally occurring in corona virus isolated from bats.

    Looking at the table of inserts in the reference, “We see that “insert 1” (GTNGTKR) is present in the closely related virus bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013” - If you look at the first four rows, the first three are 20190nCoV, and the fourth is a virus isolated from bats.

    Reference: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1223666856923291648.html

    Second: My partner, a retired HIV vaccine research scientist adds that HIV is highly prone to mutating (which is why it is so difficult to develop a vaccine for it), increasing the chances of a hit if you do a BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool) search for sequences.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:29pm

    Galway87

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    Galway87 said:

    Adam,

    Any idea why coronavirus has spread so quickly inside China and so slowly outside?  Europe and North America have been barely impacted.  Would have thought worldwide spread would be faster, even with the containment measures that have been put in place.

     

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:30pm

    Matties

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    I am very harmful, dangerous, i stir up suspicion, rumors and fan up racial discrimination and xenophobia.

    And on top i create panic.

    All of this by citing public research.

    These Chinese officials have no shame, no honor and no honesty.

    It is not the thousands of deaths that create panic and fear in China, it is people quoting research.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/angry-chinese-ambassador-slams-us-senator-absolutely-crazy-theory-coronavirus-biological

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:32pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Shawn the Sheep. (Levity file)

    When the going gets too tough, the tough watch cartoons 🐱

    A piece from my Monday (tomorrow) horoscope: "Life is a dress rehearsal sometimes, and so is this.  Have plan B, C and D."   No s--t, Sherlock!

    Is there a prize for the longest thread on the net?

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:35pm

    Zana Hart

    Zana Hart

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    Some humor directly from Wuhan

    There is a cartoonist who lives in Wuhan. Here is a link to a humorous yet poignant piece about the quarantine there.

    https://messycow.com/2020/01/31/quarantine-makes-life-better/

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 1:54pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Colloidal silver toxicity

    Wrldtravler:  I use only nano silver made by Soverign.  Nano particles don't build up in the skin like ionic forms of silver from the past.  I am not ingesting the silver, just rinsing membranes.  You need to get current information.  Thanks.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 2:06pm

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    cruise ship fears

    You may a good point. Sorry that your friend is suffering on the cruise ship even though no one is apparently affected. Even so, you'd had to be flippin out of your mind to get on a cruise ship right now.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 2:08pm

    kunga

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    Very cute, Adam

    Thank you, stay safe.  Yes, logistics nightmare keeping surfaces, knobs, handles, keys, etc. virus free.  Why I plan to isolate at home.  The unconcerned are giving me more prep time.  I fear the panic and chaos when they wake up and realize supplies are gone and no more coming.  I am getting needed dental work done this week while supplies still available.

    Bless you.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 2:13pm

    Mr Curious

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    safety of containment labs

    Matties, could you clarify what you meant by "the leaks are not restricted to Chinese labs."  To the best of my knowledge, there have been ZERO reported leaks of pathogens out of any Biosafety Level 4 laboratories in the United States. Feel free to correct this statement with real evidence. Hospitals, on the other hand, can be dangerous places.....

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 2:51pm

    Barbara

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    Facts & The informal network

    I agree.  Work your sources.  Was able to find a back door into the local campus with unquarantined Wuhan students so I didn't need to worry about delay between first illness and a week or two to announce test results.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:05pm

    nordicjack

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    Adam , your travels with PPE

    " My guess is this signal I’m giving by taking precautions is causing cognitive dissonance, and their brain just wants to say “Don’t ruin my vibe, man”

    I had to laugh when I read this.  but yeah pretty much the american thought process.  And they are sheeple and would rather digest the spew feed to them rather than use any objective rationalization that actual takes effort.     I keep telling my wife , when this crap hits the fan - and it will, no one will do what they are doing in china.   But we will see looting, rioting, pillaging,  when they cannot get services at the hospital , pharmacy or when resources run low at the super markets and gas stations etc.

    Their cause of precaution is none and their cause of action is over-reaction.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:13pm

    Matties

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    re : safety of containment

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2002/04/anthrax-escapes-lab-room-usamriid-one-worker-exposed

    The weapon grade antrax was mailed. That is a leak.

    The army institute also employed Bruce E. Ivins, a microbiologist who was a leading suspect — but who was never charged — in the anthrax mailings in 2001 that killed five people.Dr. Ivins died in 2008, apparently by suicide.

    Well there is the famous pirbright institute in England leaking.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-495608/New-leak-foot-mouth-disease-discovered-Pirbright-laboratory.html

    The Occurrence of Laboratory-Associated Infections
    Published reports of LAIs first appeared around the start of the twentieth century.
    By 1978, four studies by Pike and Sulkin collectively identified 4,079 LAIs resulting
    in 168 deaths occurring between 1930 and 1978.

    During the 20 years following the Pike and Sulkin publications, a worldwide
    literature search by Harding and Byers revealed 1,267 overt infections with 22
    deaths.7
    Five deaths were of fetuses aborted as the consequence of a maternal
    LAI.

    Interesting article you have to make a free account to read it

    It is difficult to come with straight results because obvious reasons but the clutter is big enough to assume accidents to the outside world happens.

    https://www.cdc.gov/labs/pdf/CDC-BiosafetyMicrobiologicalBiomedicalLaboratories-2009-P.PDF

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:16pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    James, re: why we have not seen spread so fast as china in north america

    We are, the problem is, just like all diseases, they take a while to see it - it is here for sure - it will mushroom.   We are only 10 days in really when this mushroomed enough to start to go global. Those seeds have been sown.   The second problem is that this only causes severe disease after about 2-3 weeks in., So , you see we are not there yet to recognize.. AND finally , this is a biggie.. The current criteria for testing in the US - would not even allow a test to someone presenting with it.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:19pm

    Barbara

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    Keep safe traveling Adam

    Given that we now know that this stuff stays on surfaces over a week, it's imperative to keep hands decontaminated.  I've been a couple of questionable places lately and tried to keep my hands wiped off.  Unlock the car, now I need to wipe the door lock, etc.
    I've also concluded that my outside clothes are contaminated.  So far, I've set up a door rack to hang them up so I don't bring them into the living area.  However, it's hard to get them on and off without touching the outside.
    Then, I wondered if my boots are a contamination source.  So I have uncontaminated things in my hands.  Do I walk in with boots on to set them down?  Do I set up an area to drop packages and then take off boots, wash hands and put things away.  Wow, this is NOT easy.  No wonder doctors get contaminated.  The statistics just catch up with you.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:27pm

    Time2help

    Time2help

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    PNW rumblings

    Coronavirus quarantine site outside North Bend is ready — but so far, the rooms are empty (Seattle Times)

    "NORTH BEND — Off Interstate 90 east of North Bend, through a winding, twisting road with blind turns and a gated entrance, sits the Washington State Patrol Fire Training Academy. The sprawling site features a multilevel building with burn pits, a shipping container for trainees to learn how to force entry and a two-story dormitory.

    Firefighting recruits use it as training facility — but it could soon be a coronavirus quarantine site.

    The 51-acre site has been designated as a spot for travelers returning to the U.S. who have been in China’s Hubei province, the epicenter of the novel coronavirus outbreak, who aren’t able to quarantine elsewhere, the State Patrol announced this week. The site is only for those who haven’t exhibited symptoms but need to be quarantined for the mandatory 14 days; those who have symptoms will be taken to a medical facility.

    Officials have stressed that the number of travelers coming through Seattle-Tacoma International Airport from Hubei is expected to be low, and possibly zero, so the site, which can accommodate 20 people, may go unused."

    "Other U.S. sites chosen for mandatory quarantine are military bases. This is the first time the academy has been used for potential quarantine, according to academy Commander Chad Cross. Other sites in Washington are being considered if the training academy reaches capacity, but officials haven’t said where those might be."

    Several indications that Joint Base Lewis McChord is spinning up for this as well. Back in 2015 JBLM hosted (quarantined) around a 100 soldiers for the Ebola outbreak.

    Coronavirus case confirmed in Washington State: What Madigan is doing. (Army.Mil)

    "MADIGAN ARMY MEDICAL CENTER, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Wash. -- Although there has only been one confirmed case of coronavirus in Washington State, Madigan Army Medical Center is closely monitoring developments around the recent outbreak first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, where an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus has been ongoing since December.

    On Jan. 21, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the leading national public health institute of the United States, and the Washington State Department of Health announced the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S. in Washington State. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan, which has been the epicenter of the outbreak.

    In response to the potential public health threat, Madigan is coordinating with 1st Corps, Army Public Health, and local public health authorities for guidance and response planning. Madigan is a key component of the Military Health System (MHS) and one of the largest military hospitals on the West Coast of the U.S."

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:46pm

    mch

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    H2O2 for inactivating virus on masks

    according to this article:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/203115

    "H2O2 in a 3 percent concentration inactivated all the viruses under study within 1--30 min. Coronavirus and influenza viruses were found to be most sensitive."

    if you need to reuse a mask, soak in hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) for 30 min, then rinse in water and dry. H2O2 should penetrate inside the mask fibers better than UV.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:53pm

    nordicjack

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    Time2help: PNW rumblings

    The actions are self-evident.  That is what I keep saying about what is going on in china too- they would not react like this if - it was equal to a flu in severe cases and death..

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 3:58pm

    wyrldtraveler

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    Military participation

    We will know that things will soon be locked down if National Guard / Reserve / Active Duty military units receive 'warning orders' to prepare for possible deployment.

    In Peacetime, there are usually public announcements that a unit like:

    The 90201st Combat Lavatory Team is preparing for possible deployment in support of [some training exercise] 

    ... or to replace some other deployed unit in Afghanistan or someplace.  I'd keep an eye out for those.

    Think: Combat Support Hospitals, Field Hospitals, Mobile Army Surgical Hospitals (M*A*S*H units), Medical Clearing Companies, etc.  Military Police units trained for Prisoner-of-War duties are also geared for 'containment camp' duty.  There's no requirement for them to be luxury accommodations - a tent and port-a-potty in 29 Palms Training Area might be home for a month for lots of 'exposed' people.

     

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 4:30pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Re: Bio lab usa

    Don't know about level 4.  But remember Plum Island ticks and Lyme Disease in Conn. 1975.

    Doctors only recently acknowledging patients have this.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 4:43pm

    SteveW

    SteveW

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    5

    2019 nCOV inserts are also in a bat virus

    Hi, I’m retired from a Medical Genetics department and it’s a long time since I ran blast searches and I don’t have the sophisticated software suites that are available today. I know Genetics but not virology. The information below suggest that 2019 nCOV is ultimately of wild origin.

     

    The information I have comes from reading the comments on the “uncanny similarity” paper. The authors have been said to have cherry picked results since some bat SARS like COV’s contain at least some of these 4 inserts. Jing Hou presented a comparison in those comments. Also it was reported that the bat RaTG13 spike protein contained all four inserts, although it is not clear if this was available to the Indian authors since the sequence of this 2013 isolate was recently uploaded.

     

    I have run a pairwise comparison of this bat RaTG13 spike protein and 2019 nCOV. You can see the result until 02/11 04:43 am at https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi. In the top right click on “Recent results”, enter the request id 40Z8C424114 and click go. On the Other report line click on Multiple alignment which shows the insertion of PRRA in the human nCOV at 693. This is insert 4 reading TNS (human TNSPPRA). The first 3 bat/human insert comparisons are: 1; GTNGIKR/GTNGTKR 2; YYHKNKK/YYHKNKK 3; GLNCYYPL/GFNCYFPL. If you go back to the original page on the RID line there is a download option. The text option provides three lines of data with the middle one being consensus, easily showing the amino acid replacement differences. This format is also seen by clicking the top right “back to traditional results page”.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 4:49pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    2

    Cui Bono

    Perhaps rather than speculating where the virus came from it would be more appropriate to ask “who benefits”, but thats a dangerous question and topic.  One probably better not to ask or discuss out loud. Just sayin

    Hmm good novel material.

     

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 5:13pm

    KLM-6

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    KLM-6 said:

    Hey, I would just like to know what kind of supplies you have gotten in case the virus gets in your area. I am starting to build a list and would just want some more info, Thanks!

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 5:34pm

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

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    thanks for this!

    Had not thought to buy H202. Will definitely do that now!

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 5:42pm

    nordicjack

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    Re why we haven't seen more US cases or when will we see an explosion of cases?

    We will unlikely see more diagnosed US cases from a surveillance standpoint as the criteria for testing is too stringent to be useful.     However, I just thought about something.  The tracking of influenza is not flu tracking per se - its Flu like illness tracking.   I would watch the flu data over the next few weeks and look for some subtle anomalies.    Because it can tell you about a lot of illness presenting to hospitals even if yet severe enough to warrant admission.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 5:59pm

    nordicjack

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    KLM regarding what supplies.

    There is no real way to know what you would need for yourself and family,

    but here are some basics to think about:

    Medicines:  prescribed,  OTC  pain reliever/fever reducer, allergy pills/cold meds

    first aid,  bandages, antiseptics ( h202, alcohol ) antibiotic ointment, cortisone cream

    Tools,  hand tools.. some cordless or corded power tools , flash lights TAPE!

    Foods: anything you can get canned,frozen, dried, as much as you can get... balance your diet.. beans and lentils are good war-time proteins.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 6:06pm

    Mr Curious

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    Safety of Containment labs

    Matties, in all fairness I was specifically referring to Biosafety level 4 laboratories and they take their track record very seriously. But I get it, you make a good point.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 6:11pm

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

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    supplies I bought

    See the great preparation article by Chris and Adam....whatever you normally buy when you are sick, but consider you may be sick for  3- 4 weeks...  Big bottles of Advil, lozenges, elderberry syrup, Vitamin C and D, masks, disposable gloves, Robitussin flu/cough, Vick’s vapor cream, bleach, Lysol wipes and sprays, hand soap and sanitizer, laundry detergent and sanitizing bleach, toilet paper, canned soups, peanut butter, coffee, honey, pet food, tissues, toilet paper. Whatever else you do not want to be out of if you can’t shop or shelves are bare.  A good thermometer and oximeter. Prescriptions.  If you have a health savings account, check out the HSA store.  Some things can even be purchased with your HSA account.  Plastic sheeting or plastic party tablecloths for covering things. Hope this helps.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 6:21pm

    tourcarve

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    SteveW - Yes re "2019 nCOV inserts are also in a bat virus"

    SteveW - Thank you for running the BLAST search. I posted (at about 1:27 PM today) a finding by a computational biologist from the Fred Hutchison Cancer Research Institute in Seattle with that conclusion.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:02pm

    SteveW

    SteveW

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    tourcave Thanks for the note

    I posted my search before I waded through all the comments from the past two days and so missed your post. Those computational biologists have really nice software.

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  • Sun, Feb 09, 2020 - 9:43pm

    dtrammel

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    18

    Preparation Supplies By Category

    Several of you have asked for suggestions and recommendations on what to buy to fill out your deep pantry and hopefully help get you though this crisis.

    Rather than give a list of specific supplies for those of you new to preparing and stockpiling a deep pantry, I want to offer a list of supplies by categories, in the hopes this will make you think about your own personal situation and choose wisely, as well as see where you have overlooked a needed supply.

    Very few of us can go out and spend thousands of dollars just before an emergency to create a deep pantry. That is why we recommend you do it in stages and over the course of months before a crisis hits. Unfortunately this isn't the case now.

    In this case, given the rapidly growing threat of a global pandemic, you will need to prioritize what you stockpile, and consider how quickly you can do it. Not all of us are in the same danger as others.

    Pandemics go through a time progression which looks something like this:

    1) Localized Outbreak:
    2) Small Regional Spread
    4) Large Regional Outbreak
    4) Trans-Regional Spread
    5) Mass Infections Across National Boundaries
    6) Hot House State/Global Infection
    7) Outbreak Burnout (either within regions or globally)
    8) Post Outbreak Aftermath

    Each of these phases has preparation that you need to do, progressing and building on the ones before it.

    They also are not universal. The Large Regional outbreak in China, which is now progressing into a Trans-Regional Outbreak in the Asian Rim requires certain drastic preparations that for someone in the rural portions of the United States does not.

    And yet, China is the manufacturing center of the global economy. So someone in a phase that doesn’t need a measure of preparation later phases do, may need to up their own preparation because resources are going to be scarce.

    But you should remember, YOU HAVE TIME TO GET READY.

    Let's look at some categories then.

    ---

    1) Life Critical Medicines:

    These are supplies you need to keep yourself alive normally, ignoring the current crisis.

    Are you diabetic? Do you take medicines on a regular basis? Do any of your family take them? If so, then you need to schedule an appointment with your doctor and talk to them about prescribing a larger supply of your current medications. Also stockpile any equipment you need to give those meds, like syringes, or test strips.

    Importantly, are you or your partner pregnant? Giving birth in a pandemic can be particularly challenging. Consider how you might stockpile if you think you may have to do a home birth during a period of self quarantine. Rather than a hospital deliver, investigate midwife services. Consider birth control and stockpile for it. Its a given that any self quarantine may be boring, and people bored sometimes choose to entertain themselves in a more personal nature. Seek additional supplies of birth control pills or a supply of condoms.

    Think not just about yourself but also any elderly family members who don't live with you. You may decide to bring them into your home with you for protection. They may not see the current crisis as worrisome, and ignore or downplay the need to stockpile but you can always address it as a supply problem. Imports from China, including medicines are being impacted by their national quarantine. Important medications may not be there if they wait.

    ---

    2) Children and Their Needs:
    I'm not a parent, nor do I have children, so I'm going to offer this section from an outsider's perspective.

    Children and their needs depends a lot on their ages. Those who are pre-kindergarten, have different requirements from those who are in grade school, as do those from children in their teens.

    While children, like any of us needs food, to me children in particular have a need for distraction. That is, they may have varying levels of understanding of the crisis and the reason they must stay inside and not go out. Entertainment and educational resources will go a long way to keeping young children happy and distracted. Older children with honest discussion can and will help out if given the opportunity, if you explain the importance to them. Consider devoting in the opening phases of your stockpiling, a portion to buy supplies that keep your children busy and entertained. Look to what books, games or DVDs you have on hand.

    ---

    3) Pets:
    Don't forget your non-human companions. Stockpile meds if needed. You might think that you could just give them table scraps in a dire situation, but their health will suffer. Look for pet food on discount if money is tight but be aware changing foods can cause diarrhea and digestion problems. Make food changes slowly. Pets can help tremendously in lowing stress and providing comfort. Don't neglect their welfare.

    ---

    4) Transportation:
    Beginning tomorrow, fill you car's gasoline tank at 3/4. Yes, that means you will be stopping to fill a lot. Get used to it.

    Transportation is your lifeline to supplies and support. In a city wide lock down, there will be no ambulances, no mass transit. While I don't expect electrical service will be disrupted beyond minor blackouts, remember both ATMs and gas pumps don't work without electricity. If you have the money, consider stockpiling one tank's worth of gasoline with your deep pantry. Remember you will need to use and rotate any stored fuel if kept more than a few months.

    Consider too cooking fuels. You may at some point need to consider cooking on an alternative method that your normal one. A small barbecue with a bag of stored charcoal, or something bigger like a small camp stove may need to be factored into your prep.

    ---
    5) Water and the Toilet:
    Remember, you have 20-30 gallons in your water heater, which you can access if you need to. Do a Youtube search and watch how to open and drain your water heater. In many cases domestic water heaters have a build up in mineral scalings, which may drain with the water. Best consider this a source of water for flushing your toilet. If the water does temporally shut off, remember to conserve. Many people forget that, and flush as they would normally, wasting precious water. Put a bottle of common bleach in the bathroom. After you use the toilet, pour a small amount into the soiled water and only flush when it becomes a problem.

    Before that, put a large plastic tote in the shower and fill it. This can provide a source of usable water.

    Something else, buy lots of toilet paper. You can go hungry but if you can't wipe your butt, you are not going to be happy. Stock up on feminine hygiene products too if needed.

    Consider buying at least some sealed drinkable water containers. Humans need about a gallon a day, either through food, juices or water. Plan for that. Most grocery stores have fillable water jugs. Remember though, water is heavy. Don't stack too much in one place in your home.

    If you have the money pick up one or two plastic 55 gallon drums and fill them with drinkable water. Put them in your basement or where the weight won't matter.

    ---
    6) Heat, Cooling and Lighting:
    For those of us in North America, we are headed out of the Winter. Heating except in an unexpected cold snap will be less of a problem, one that heavy blankets on the bed and a sweater worn inside may solve. For those of you in the South Hemisphere, you need to consider what the approaching Winter will do to your home and preparations, if power and fuel is interrupted. We can actually live in unheated environments, and our ancestors did so.

    Same with cooling, though its likely that the Corona virus will decrease when warmer weathers become common.

    For lighting in a electrical disruption, candles may seem romantic but there are many newer led camp lights which last a long time on batteries. Get one, and get at least one replacement of batteries.

    ---
    7) Money and Capital Resources:
    A lot of us have several credit cards, and they should be considered a usable resource if needed. Don't hesitate to rack up some debt if you have to in this crisis. Just be wise about it, remember you are going to have to pay it back eventually.

    Consider putting at least a few hundred dollars in cash at home.

    Its quite possible that during this crisis there will be computer disruptions and your cards, both credit and debit, may be declined. Have with you a amount of cash will allow you to buy needed supplies. An yet, be careful and don't flash large amounts of easily stolen cash.

    Also consider paying your utilities and monthly bills in advance at least one month. I'm not sure how this crisis will effect billing and such things. I would hope that services would make allowances for people in need but then they may not. More and more, computers are in charge of who gets their services turned off. Don't let a illness put you in the dark or sends the sheriff to your door to evict you.

    8) Security and Protection:
    If you own a firearm, check it, clean it and put it somewhere you can get at it. If you don't own one, consider putting some sort of protection where its handy. Also have something with you if you go out.

    I remember when I worked as a security guard in college, the police instructor who trained us said this, that carrying a billy club was illegal, but one of the longer and heavy flashlights wasn't. If we had to use that for protection then it was ok. Likewise, I have in my car as 4 way tire iron, for changing tires. I also have a hollow steel pipe which fits over one arm of that, to provide leverage to unstick frozen wheel notes. That four foot pipe can be just as easily used to defend myself.

    No, I don't think we will see roving bands of MadMaxian thieves assaulting our homes. And yet, in many Third World countries you can be attacked and robbed in the few feet from your car to your front door. Become situational aware. Watch your environment. Crises like these bring out the best in people but also bring out the worst.

    ---
    9) Virus Related Medicinals:

    We covered life critical medicines in section one. A second section must be those medicinals related to the crisis.

    You may not be able to cure the underlying illness but often being able to handle the symptoms can go a long way to keeping you alive. Look at the symptoms that this virus has, cough, fever, diarrhea and find over the counter medicines to address each of them. Stock up, its going to be rough. Don't forget simply instruments.  A good thermometer and oximeter can tell you when its time to brave the line at the local hospital or end up dead.

    Consider your self quarantine measures as well. One of your household is certainly going to be sick. Your job is to see that all of you don't. Personal protection equipment (PPE) to prevent the virus from spreading inside your home and to protect you when you have to go out for supplies, is critical. Buy what you can but don't hoard. Others out there will need supplies too. Read up here on how you can extend the life of your PPE and masks. Protect yourself and don't put yourself and your family at risk if you can help it.

    Don't over look less traditional medicinals, like herbals and supplements. You need to strengthen your bodies immune system and stay healthy and well. Read where you can. Knowledge is your friend.

    ---
    10) Food:
    I put food at the end of this list because it is often the first thing people think of when they begin to prepare and it is probably one of the least important things to stockpile. I know most people will take issue with this, but its true. You can survive a long while on little food. You can't if you are diabetic and don't have insulin.

    Food is important but you must approach it with some smarts. Food is a supply you can easy go overboard on and waste your money.

    Lets consider some key points to outfitting your deep pantry with food.

    10a) Buy what You Eat:
    Too many new people to stockpiling will see the ads for survival food and buy into a bulk purchase of foods which do provide the needed nutrition but which are completely useless as additions to their deep pantries.

    Simply this, if you don't eat rice or beans on a regular basis, buying 20 pounds of either as a basis for your deep pantry is wrong. Either of those staples may keep you alive, but you aren't going to enjoy it.

    Purchase the food which you eat in your pre-crisis life. Deep pantries aren't something you buy and then store in the basement never to touch unless it gets back. Deep pantries are really just buying your normal groceries that you eat from day to day, but buying them a few months out. One hint, as you buy stuff and build up your deep pantry, date each item with a magic marker, then try and choose the oldest food item in the pantry when you need to eat.

    That also means deep pantries aren't static. You need to set up a schedule of weekly menus so that you don't end up with supplies that are years old. Second hint, buy and put up a small white board in your kitchen, both to plan a menu and to remind yourself of any needed additions.

    This virus outbreak isn't going to cut off our access to food. Some things may get out of stock. There may be food runs too, where local stores empty out. You though, know enough to plan ahead and not let panic dictate your actions.

    10b) Consider How Its Stored:
    Most of your deep pantry will need to be stored for a while, at least weeks if not months. When you purchase and fill out your deep pantry, be aware of that fact.

    The majority of the food you buy will be in cans or packaging which allows room temperature, dry storage. If its one thing modern grocers have perfected, its making food that lasts. That's good.

    Some things may require electrical cold storage. I own a 7 cubic foot freezer and its almost always filled to the top. If power goes out though, that food will quickly turn to unusable garbage unless I cook it and eat it. Electrical cold storage though is very useful and as I've pointed out, at least in the US, during this crisis, electrical supplies of power should be constant.

    Try though to buy those foods that store at room temperature.

    10c) Buy A Few Comfort Foods:
    Nothing cuts stress like a couple of cookies.

    Its tempting when you first outfit a deep pantry to focus just on the basics and the core supplies. That is a mistake. We aren't just animals eating that which we need. We are emotional beings that sometimes just want to have a hot cup of coffee and some chocolate. Remember that when things are hard, its helpful to be able to step back, recenter our thoughts and let the stress go for a moment, before getting back into the fight is critical to your survival.

    10d) Start Growing Something:

    Even if its just a few sprouts. Or a bucket of microgreens. Start now to gain at least a small amount of control on where your food comes from.

    ---

    Ok, that's some thoughts and suggestions. I suspect I'm missing a whole lot of things but at least it gets you thinking. Remember, developing a deep pantry and preparing for hard times isn't just going out and buying a whole lot of canned food.

    For every dollar you have to supply a deep pantry, unfortunately you are going to have 3-4 things that you think you need to buy. Take your time, think though your options and even if you later think you chose wrong, don't worry about it too much. You will make mistakes. This isn't a situation with right or wrong but a situation where you can only choose what is best for you.

    Be safe.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 6:32am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5365

    3

    How long are you preparing for?

    The way things are shaping up in China, and assuming things go the same way  in my own locale, a reasonable reaction might be to self-isolate and limit contact until a vaccine is developed.

    While we can hope that will be in a few months, I honestly think it will be at least a year.

    So...what then?  How to approach that situation?

    Well, gardening suddenly factors into that equation as a necessity.  I am in  huge flux now personally as I am in between moving homes, and have not yet established my new garden.  Luckily there's an existing garden space, a really nice one, at the new house, but still all of my perennials and medicinal plantings are at my old house.

    Perhaps I can move a few of them, but the fruit trees and grape vines not so much.

    As well, I rely each year on buying new annual seeds for vegetable crops.  Without having the time  to really dive into planning my new garden (something I normally take a few luxurious weeks to do) I went the easy route and ordered these heirloom seeds as a package (just in case I was unable to procure my usual supplies).

    Heirloom seeds, of course, because those offer the chance of seed saving in perpetuity.  Hybrids either breed untrue, or not at all, depending.

    Worth every penny to my peace of mind):

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07577BVWH/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o04_s01?ie=UTF8&psc=1

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 7:43am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 65

    6

    Can't afford food?

    A great Native American (we used to call them Indians) is famously quoted as saying that you cannot eat money.

    This is an investment in your future, not 'prepping'.  You can eat this, at least.

    I've seen at least one post on the forum which states that the poster 'cannot afford to stock up on food'.  This is preposterous.

    I just bought a year's supply of food.  Cost me about $500.  It's not great, but I won't starve.

    "But I live in [expensive place]!"  Not true.  Food is about the same cost in many places, unless you are in the desert or on an island and everything has to be flown in (Point Barrow and Nome, Alaska come to mind.)  Here are some real-world prices:

    Rice, 20 pound bag = about $10 USD

    Dried Beans, 10 pound bag = about $2-$3/pound

    Bulk canned vegetables (#10 can) = $8 average price.

    These are prices available at places like Wal-Mart, Sam's Club, Costco and restaurant supply stores.  You might have to open an account, but you can get a couple of pallets of food all at once.

    I keep extra food stored at one of those self-storage places.  No nosey neighbors.  I can shuttle stuff in the trunk of my vehicle late in the evening when lighting is bad so nobody can see what I am hauling.  They don't know if it's a big bag of rice or a bag of wood pellets for the stove.

    "I have no space."  Food for one person for a year takes up about ten plastic totes (the size of a normal laundry basket - 1 meter by 60 cm by 60cm) that can be stacked and turned into a table or bookshelves with some strategically-placed boards.

    Nobody keeps track if you go grocery shopping once or twice a week.  Buy more, buy more often.  You're going to eat it anyway.

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:30am

    Yoxa

    Yoxa

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 316

    4

    Beans and rice - need new recipes!

    If you're going to buy a year's supply of something, make sure you know how to cook it in some interesting ways. Aim for balance so that if you have a large supply of something you also have the other ingredients you'd need to go with it.

    Having food on hand will keep you safe, but savvy menu planning will keep you sane!

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:05pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    3

    How Deep Is My Pantry? Reply To Chris

    I will be honest, before this crisis I'd let my supplies slide. Water and fuel are still very low for me, but over the last two weeks I've been doing daily runs to the grocery store fattening up my food supplies. A rough guess based on a visual inventory say's I'm probably at 8-10 weeks of food for one person as of tonight, with another week's worth in grocery bags from tonight's trip.

    That would be ok except if it does hit hard, then I'm almost certainly moving in with my sister nearby. She is single with no children and two years younger than me. She owns her own home and I'm moving in with her at the end of this years, now that I've retired. She probably has 1-2 weeks of food at her home. She doesn't stock up like I do.

    We had a short conversation about the crisis last night when I stopped by and I was honest about things with her. She copied down your name to check the videos out. We trade meals since we both like to cook. I crock potted a 5lb turkey breast I've had in the freezer since 2018 Christmas Sunday and steamed a few pounds of fresh veggies. Half of that went into the freezer and I brought over a bit for her. I got beef and noodles.

    I've been looking at fuel options the past week, and I'm probably going with 5 gallon container. I'm not happy since those are about $25 each once bought and filled but I'll probably start picking one up a day until I get 40 gallons in storage. On average I go thru about 10 gallons a week right now, though my sister probably doubles that since she still works.

    Water has been a puzzle. I'd like to get at least one 55 gallon plastic drum for the basement to use for toilet flushing. For cooking, cleaning and drinking I'm probably going to go with store bought 2.5 gallon units prefilled and sealed. They will run me about $1 a gallon. Started picking up 1 a day as well and will go until I get up to 50 gallons in storage.

    Beer is a bit light as well, lol. Just 3 cases of 32oz cans. I may have to make an emergency run soon. The end of the world without beer, I shudder at the idea.

    Cleaning supplies are going slowly because I haven't made a priority of them yet. I'm waiting until the end of the week to see if we have further people sick here in the US. If a run starts to happen, there is a restaurant supply store the animal shelter I volunteer at buys from. They have a large warehouse and I will pop up to them and buy a truck load if it looks like people are getting scared.

    Security wise, I've got a few hundred rounds each of 9mm and 38, for my three handguns. I should get off my butt and buy the shotgun I've been meaning to.

    Got about a month of pet food too but will double that on Friday when I go clean at a petstore we provide animals at.

    All in all Chris, I'm not where I'd like to be, but I could close the door for a month easily.

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:22pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    3

    Don't forget spices

    You make a great point about meal planning and being able to liven up a plain fare of beans and rice Yoxa.

    Weber makes a variety of barbecue spice mixes I've found do a great flavor combo on simple veggies. I picked up a simple electric rice steamer at a garage sales a few years back and its my favorite cooking tool.

    https://www.amazon.com/Black-Decker-Handy-Steamer-Cooker/dp/B01N8SJXPD/

    The one I have doesn't have the rice steamer insert so I usual just boil a cup of rice to toss the veggies on.

    The manufacturer Zatarain's makes some prepackaged Gumbo, Jambalaya and Black Beans and Rice dishes that are tasty. I throw in a 2 cups of extra rice and it makes a big pot fit to feed 5-6 for about $5 if you add a few sausages or some shrimp.

    You can definitely feed people on less if you flavor it up right.

    If someone was going to get a large supply of the basics, beans and rice, I would recommend they get some spices too.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 8:39pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    5

    Start Your Garden Early With Containers

    Chris, you could get a jump on your garden by starting some onions and leafy greens in containers now. The greens would be ready in a few weeks, the onions a bit longer.

    Here's a tutorial I did for PPers on the forum

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/self-watering-garden-containers/

    If you stagger your greens, one bucket each two weeks, you'll have greens all Summer.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:29pm

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    3

    Stocking up on seeds for ongoing food and a few high calorie foods with long shelf life

    Chris had a comment earlier about stocking up on seeds. May I suggest Baker Creek Heirloom Seed collection? More expensive, I know, but you would support an amazing company.

    Also, one thing to consider, is that if you are really depending on your garden for calories, you don't want to be growing mostly leafy greens and broccoli. Consider onions, rutabagas, corn, squash, pumpkins with hull-less seeds, and other foods denser in calories. Also, most importantly, you want them well-adapted to your region, and from a reputable company with a great germination rate (no conflict of interest here!):

    https://www.rareseeds.com/store/seed-collections/heirloom-seed-collection

    Re: foods with long shelf life, I have had to look into some really unusual powdered foods, such as powdered butter, powdered coconut butter, and powdered bone broth. I am really picky about my food during normal times, and in a scenario where medications are running scarce, I wouldn't take any chances - so my choices run organic and pastured where possible. I would love to hear tips from others along those lines. Some of the foods with long shelf-lives like pasta and rice are low calorie and for me personally inflammatory.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:42am

    thelittleman

    thelittleman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 10 2020

    Posts: 2

    1

    Found this on reddit, think its worth reading and spreading

    A letter to the world:

     

    (09.02.2020)

     

    The corona virus is spreading and the governments around the world are still pretending nothing is happening. Officials say not to worry because it's just a flu. In a risk assessment even if you believe that there is a low probability that a harm occurs but the consequences are catastrophic such as a potential pandemic you still need to act. This threat should be taken more seriously and governments should provide all necessary supplies and staff to China and Asian countrys in order to slow the spread. We cannot afford to take the risk and just hope the problem will conveniently solve itself. This is a global threat. There needs to be a global response.

     

    I still remember the Tabacco companies. Most experts said "smoking kills" (common sense), but Big Tabacco found some experts that said, "it’s not a problem." The next time you read the newspapers, there was the slogan "experts say smoking is not harmful." Well, Big Tabacco was telling the truth, there were experts... but reality was much different. What do I hear now from the news? "Mortality is not that high, future numbers will maybe relieve the situation. The action taken is a big burden on the economy (true) and could be a potential threat (supply chains)." We don't have all the data yet! Cases just doubled in Singapore (since Feb. 3). It will take two weeks until we get reliable data from these cases, cruise ships (reliable data), Japan and so on.

     

    I can't believe that the global community didn't even try to throw at least the same amount of money that got used to bail out the banks at the WHO to try and stop the spread. I mean at least TRY, there is a window of opportunity that could get exponentially smaller every day. There is stuff we can do! What happens right now is going into the history books, mark my words.

     

    Point one: If we let this pathogen burn through the population, we have to live with it again and again and again. Imagine INDIA and AFRICA with the lack of healthcare and undernourished bodies. We are going to see different pictures from there.

     

    Point two: This is a single-stranded RNA virus. The reason you have double-stranded DNA is that it's more stable (lower mutation rate, less cancer and many other reasons). The RNA will produce many mistakes in its replication process leading to a higher potential for mutation. That could be good or bad. The Spanish flu circulated three times around the globe because it changed. People that got through the first wave were not immune to the new surface structure of the next wave.

     

    I don't want this! At least try, world! If the next generations have to live with it, they should read in the history books that we did every rational thing that we could do. Otherwise, it would be such a SHAME... I refuse to believe that we are talking monkeys with smartphones that are more scared of a recession. The Chinese extended holidays were supposed to end on Sunday (if I am informed correctly) and some people seem to be very scared of what will happens if the Chinese don't go back to the factories and work and remain in quarantine instead. The numbers of the last two days, if correct, are a reason to have some hope. If we resume business as usual too fast, i am afraid that we will lose this advantage and contagion will become hopeless or very difficult and expensive.

    Mr. John Campbell (watch him), your fact-based approach and honest discussion are a rare and very important tool for people to make objective and rational decisions with on this evolving topic. In the name of our little community -THANK YOU.

     

    Mr. Gates, thank you for being smart and warning us of the obvious event that just had a big mathematical likelihood of happening. Please don’t feel offended by these weird conspiracy theories, they don’t know any better and subconsciously hope that some human is in control.

     

    Mr. Musk, I guess you were right that people don’t understand exponential curves. They are emotional beings. What’s behind the simulation – impressively smart answer.

     

    Mr. Buffet, always a step ahead - nice Basket.

     

    Mr. Bezos, your super effective business concept is deeply connected with the Chinese supply chain. It would fit your name and your business if you helped the WHO. Others would follow.

     

    To get this straight, a chemical or nuclear contamination will decrease exponentially with time. A biological contamination can increase exponentially with time.

    Regarding all these conspiracy theories, later you have all the time in the world to compare homologous sequences and point fingers. In my opinion, I think it's most likely that it originated from nature. It looks to me that the Big Investment companies got surprised by this event and need more time and good news to unload all their stocks to the little man (good book by the way). Just check Google trends.

     

    Basic information (our past future calculations have been matched three weeks in a row +- 20 percent): R(0) between 2 and 4.08 (source: WHO), asymptomatic spread (source: WHO), human to human transmission (source: WHO), 3 - 12 (maybe 21) days incubation period, time being sick 6 - 23 days (you are able to infect others during the whole incubation time and time being sick), mortality rate - insufficient data but it looks like it’s not like SARS for now, regarding European countries air travel is still engaged with China (necessary for medical equipment and support, but seeding potential), air travel to China and people that have been to China in the last 14 days (incubation period) were stopped by the USA (it reduces the number of potential seeders/infection chains), single strand RNA virus, potential bacterial secondary infections (basically nearly all antibiotics are produced in China), no immunity (we are a virgin population).

     

    Governments, you should have acted three weeks ago. Please act now to stop or at least slow the spread (healthcare capacity can be used for more people over a longer period of time if the infection chain is slowed down). In the words of the famous Elvis Presley, "a little less conversation, a little more action please." The most efficient first steps will be to help China and Asia in containment. They need medical supplies, medical staff and maybe basics like food in the future if they are willing to keep up the containment efforts (if you do – thank you). In this case, solidarity might result in lower costs, “better” ROI; it will be a very expensive process anyways.

     

    People, if your community is affected in the far future (might not happen), you are increasing your selfish individual benefit by an order of magnitude if you follow and maintain the social order! I urge you to follow the orders of the officials and stay rational! Any behavior that increases entropy will tie up resources and help spread the disease or its negative impact on society, which would directly or indirectly have a negative impact for you and your loved ones! To efficiently fight a virus, collective intelligence is the key and this lesson might have very good consequences for the future as well. To finish this, don’t be too scared, it’s not the end of the world. Fortunately, it’s just a coronavirus and it seems to be “harmless” enough to not constantly interrupt the global division of labor and working world we live in and all depend on. Listen to and follow the officials, help others and always, always! treat animals with respect as fellow beings on this planet to avoid something worse than this happening in the future again. Many Chinese factories opened today (10.02.2020) and I am afraid that we gone see outstanding numbers between April and May.

     

    OK, I tried my best. While I am writing this, there is actually a storm approaching my hometown today, which reminds me of this proverb:

     

    When The Winds of Change Blow, Some People Build Walls, Others Build Windmills – Chinese Proverb

     

    Cheers, the little man.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:29am

    Laura from Texas

    Laura from Texas

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 13

    3

    Deep Pantry ~ Absolutely

    10c) Buy A Few Comfort Foods:
    Nothing cuts stress like a couple of cookies.

    By god, you're right!

    Thank you for the list!

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:31am

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 42

    3

    A big garden a must this year!

    Last year I skipped my garden in favor of starting my orchard, as both are very labor/time intensive and couldn't do both and work full time.  This year, much as I would like to continue on my orchard, which is going to be quite large, the need for a garden may take priority.  I have a good supply of regular seed stock for this year and have a bucket of heirloom/non-GMO seeds in storage from the same company shown on your post for emergency and continued future propagation.  All of this is part of the overall planning in a vein similar to the philosophy you teach here in preparation for a changing world.  I am fortunate to have land, water, and an abundance of resources of which I plan to take advantage.  I anticipate a day when I will have to choose who gets to live here with me and who I have to turn away.  That is definitely something I hope to avoid, but think is inevitable.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:48am

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 42

    3

    No thank you.

    You can keep your collectivism, your altruism, and your belief in the very same people responsible for pillaging the world.  I will keep my selfishness and a spirit of cooperation for only those of like mind.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:16am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    3

    Pandemic Every Day Carry (EDC)

    One of the things many preppers (or survivalist) have is an "Every Day Carry". This is usually a small belt bag worn, or perhaps a backpack kept in the trunk of your car, which holds some items that would be useful in your day to day life and the problems you might encounter.

    I don't wear one at the moment, but given the progression of this crisis, I think its time I did. The question for this post is, "What kind of things should you have in a EDC bag?"

    Sorry, the light is a bit bad. Here is the small belt bag I bought over the weekend, and a few supplies I got on my last grocery run.

    In the travel section there was a very small spray bottle of the disinfectant Lysol. Its not going to disinfect much, but as a carry along its probably handy. So too with the Tylenol bottle. It only has 10 capsules but can be refilled. I figure with the stress that I'm going to be handling if this crisis really gets going, either I or someone with me may get a headache.

    For sanitizer wipes, I am debating the size for personal carry. The Wet Wipes package has 40, while the smaller Clorox pack has only 9. One thing, most public places that I might go, are going to begin having public hand sanitizer wipe stations I'm sure so any I carry will be just a supplement to that. I'm leaning towards carrying both, in case I need to give away a package to a friend or someone I meet.

    As I was going over what cleaning agents I had in my bathroom closet, I rediscovered a bunch of old "Blood Fluid Disposal Kits" that I liberated from the trash can when my old job, moved to a new building.

    Its easily 10-15 years old but for the most part all of the parts are still good.

    The rolled up blue thing is a pair of paper booties to put over your shoes. To its right are some paper towels. The tube to the left is a chemical for solidifying fluids. There is a face shield but surprisingly, no actual mask.

    I did like the biohazard bags though. I must assume that I may run into a situation where someone is injured. Ambulances and EMTs are probably going to be very busy and not likely to respond to a minor injury. Prudence would say just walk away but I'm not likely to. So some basic first aid stuff is needed

    This kit will be serving two purposes, to carry around some extra pandemic supplies, like extra masks and gloves AND to provide me with some tools in case of an emergency or just a simple problem.

    I can think of a short list now for what I might put in my EDC bag now.

    1) At least 3-4 N95  extra face masks. And a set of goggles.

    2) 5 pair of extra nitrate gloves and 5 pair of lighter latex gloves.

    3) The Tylenol, and some basic first aid bandages too. Perhaps a small bag of cough drops too.

    4) The two biohazard bags (or as a substitute 2 small trash bags) if I need to dispose of soiled or contaminated stuff.

    5) Bottle of hand sanitizer and both packages of wipes. The Lysol. Some paper towels.

    Then for general problems, a multitool and small flashlight. I actually found a nice led flash light that clips to the brim of my baseball cap. Can be held in your hand but having it hands free is great.

    Also an envelope with about $100 is various bills and an old driver's license I have for ID.

    ---

    I'm sure I'll be adding a few things as I think of them BUT what other items would you carry?

    ADDED: Don't know why I forgot a simple lighter. Sometimes you need fire.

    Writing tools: Toss a ink pen and a black sharpie in your bag.

    Pair of scissors? Multitools typical have a pair of scissors but using one sucks.

    Shout to Barbara: A couple of granola bars, for a quick snack.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:14am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    2

    EDC - We Call That A Purse

    Great info dtrammel.  I have been obsessively sanitizing my phone, door handle, steering wheel and shifter in my vehicle. Glasses too.

    I keep disposable gloves in my purse as well.

    Who’s next?

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:53am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    UV Instrument Sterilizer - Maybe Beauty Supply Stores?

    EDC - We Call That A Purse

    The luxury us manly menfolk don't have, lol. Though you ladies carry way too much stuff in them. Guess that means they are also PPWs (personal protective weapons). I may go with a man-purse though, because my belt pouch is filling up rather quickly. I have been just tossing it over my shoulder, rather than the belt so I can remove it when getting into the car. Something larger like an actual backpack are out, most stores require you check them at the customer desk on entering.

    I've started keeping a full thing of sanitizing wipes in my car, to wipe down things like the steering wheel, shifter and the radio controls as well as my hands when I get into the car from being out in public. The problem is I own a small truck, with little cab space for a lot of extra supplies. A normal trip to the grocery usually fills the passenger seat up.

    As for phone, keys and glasses, in another thread someone pointed out UV light sterilizers, which are marketed to new parents as a way to clean formula bottles and pacifiers. Originally they were used by beauty and haircut professionals to sterilize tools. I'm going to stop by a beauty supply store this week and see if they care one of those. Amazon has many but you know half the things on Amazon are cheap Chinese knock offs.

    In discussion with my sister on this crisis, she asked what do you do about the items you buy at the grocery, which can easily be infected if someone has picked it up, then put it back. I had thoughts of setting up a incoming item disinfecting station at the door of my home. Incoming items would be put there for at least a day, to allow the virus to naturally die. Everyday things like keys and cell phones would go into a UV sterilizer and be ready to leave with me on my next trip.

    I don't do it now but may if this crisis gets worse, or we get a infected person in St Louis.

    You might be able to sterilizer face masks too, but I haven't much information about that, since modern health care just throws them away.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 12:03pm

    Barbara

    Barbara

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    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 180

    1

    Adding everything but comfort food to my "carry bag" [purse].

    Since I live in snow country, the car has winter gear 9 months - heavy socks & boots, parka, blankets in case I have to walk or hunker down in the car in heavy snow.  I also have my light hiking fanny pack with a couple space blankets, knife and light sources.  First aid kit, CERT emergency bag.

    I had my car totalled and just dumped by winter kit in the storage closet.  So I got into Iowa blizzard without most of my kit.  Stress!  So without thinking I ate a couple of low sugar, gluten free bakery items.  Forgot they had eggs, which I've been avoiding for 6 months and ended up with an allergic reaction.  If you need comfort food, try a little dried fruit.  It will keep you healthier.

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:49pm

    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 56

    1

    Transmissible through sexual activity

    Dr. John Campbell, who takes great pains to remind viewers that his YT channel is evidence based, listed sex as one way the virus could be transmitted.  After all, it usually involves mucous membranes...

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:59pm

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 42

    2

    Lots of good info! Thanks.

    It's easy to overlook, forget, or not consider things that may end up being essential.  Be that supplies, planning, or habits.  Thanks for sharing all your prep tips.  One thing I went ahead and did was set up some basic outlines or plans for the next month, two months, three months in a plan A or plan B manner.  I figure that with the shifting information it is good to think ahead and plan for different scenarios with the idea that the plans are adaptable and will help to keep some important actions on the forefront.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:11pm

    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 56

    2

    Avoiding public restrooms

    >>Wash hands before using toilet.<<
    Exactly!

    >> I think I will avoid all public restrooms in the future. <<
    We're thinking that as it grows nearer, we'll resort to taking our tiny rv when we have to run unavoidable errands for more than a couple of hours. That "private bathroom on wheels" feature is sure handy to have.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:23pm

    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

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    UV Sterilizers: Why Wait?

    >>UV light sterilizers, primarily marketed to new parents to sanitizer their baby’s bottles and other stuff, could end up being the go to Christmas gift this year, since you can also do your phone or other electronics.<<

    I'm thinking...early Valentine's Day gift?

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:33pm

    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

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    Joined: Apr 05 2011

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    Flannel would make better family wipes

    >>I settled on a supply of terry washcloths from the dollar store. Easier for me than making my own. <<

    Terry will hold on to solid waste more readily, and be scratchier on sensitive skin. You can cut up old flannel pajamas, shirt, or bedsheets, preferably with pinking shears (the ones with the saw-tooth pattern to their blades), if you haven't got time or don't know how to sew a hem. Softer, easier to get thoroughly clean.

    If I had to carry a bag of fecal waste through the house, I'd think that handheld UV sterilizer might come in handy to disinfect the exterior of the bag first.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:43pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

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    Sterilizers vs Sanitizers

    Buyer beware - in the beauty industry some of the devices that carry the title “Sterilizer” are really just sanitizers.  There is a big difference.  The “name” might say sterilizer but the function is sanitization.  To kill the vCov virus you want a sterilizer not a sanitizer.  Read the fine print or you may not get what you want.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:40pm

    Alexis

    Alexis

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    Joined: Jan 26 2020

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    Love the tips!

    Love all the tips and sharing! Thank y’all!

    A few places of contagion potential I wanted to mention:

    - gas pumps! Just dont touch them ever, I keep baby wipes in my van and use to the baby wipe as a pseudo glove between me and the entirety of the pump, buttons, handles, etc. I’ll probably use gloves now due to the nature of the virus

    - wash hands immediately before you eat it you are out! I’m always amazed at the amount of people I used to see eating with their hands without cleaning them first. (We don’t watch at all anymore due to kid food allergies but I would probably stop now due to the virus.)

    - iodine... I’ve been doing some personal research on antivirals and iodine supplementation for cytokine storm reduction came up. Anyway, led me down a interesting rabbit hole of how antiviral/ antibacterial/ anti everyone iodine is. One doctor mentioned masks would be more efficient if impregnated with iodine! The article was several years old and I found that interesting. Also, med journal discussing “colonized” patients with recurrent bacterial/chronic ENT infections, study had them gargle Iodine daily (can’t remember how many times), concluded with reduction in chronically infected patients which I thought was huge. Recurrent strep people may be something to look into. I’m continuing that research but wanted to pass the carrot to anyone interested! I currently use betadine on all things for my kids, which I swear helps even mosquito bites (we have been the lucky winners of cellulitis from bites previously)

    - alternative cleaning, thymol. Product I’ve used in the past to kill toxic mold was Benefect. Bleach doesn’t even kill toxic mold and benefect does, plus all natural so may be beneficial with ncov, the package DOES say it’s antiviral though (I haven’t adopted COVID-19). Lol

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:41pm

    dtrammel

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    Joined: May 03 2011

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    Double Bag For Safety

    If I had to carry a bag of fecal waste through the house, I’d think that handheld UV sterilizer might come in handy to disinfect the exterior of the bag first.

    Hazmat procedure is usually double bagging waste. For soiled disposables, you would set up two trash bins with bags. With gloves on, you would put the soiled waste into the first bag, then deglove and pick up the outside of that bag, tie it off, then put that bag into a second bag. Prevents a hole you didn't notice, from leaking infected waste on the floor as you carry it out.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:50pm

    dtrammel

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    Good Points Granny

    Buyer beware – in the beauty industry some of the devices that carry the title “Sterilizer” are really just sanitizers.  There is a big difference.  The “name” might say sterilizer but the function is sanitization.  To kill the vCov virus you want a sterilizer not a sanitizer.  Read the fine print or you may not get what you want.

    I'm leaning toward purchasing this model.

    https://www.amazon.com/Sterilizer-Sanitiser-Hospital-Strength-Sterilizes/dp/B07W7HSDPZ/

    Its gotten great awards, reviews and the company has a 100% return policy. Its a bit high on price, over $100 but I really like the large size of the chamber. Too many UV sterilizers are just cell phone size.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:07pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Food Storage

    If you have a sensitive digestive system, one can always freeze-dry items low in fat (grains, vegetables, fruits) and separate out those that are not (ghee from butter, etc.)  Coconut oil has a long shelf life if cool and dark, butter can be frozen, etc.

    Other options include conventional drying (solar, electric, gas) and canning in those nifty glass jars.

    Freezers are remarkably efficient in cellars where it is 55F all day and all night.  Even an old one from a resale shop or Good Will/Salvation Army, etc beats nothing.  Bought a little one for 20 bucks a few years back about this time of year.

    I regularly buy 10-20 pounds of hamburger from the butcher and brown it for soups and sauces.  One pound (pre-seasoned) servings go into freezer bags and I am magically an amazing cook!  Same goes for soups and stews - everything gets prepped, into the freezer bag and after thawing all I have to do is add to a pot of water or stock for cooking.  It's not gourmet, but it's not bad.

    Unless there is total collapse, power will remain on (may get intermittent) so no need to go overboard at this time.  Now is the time to get started; later it might be time to get serious about post-collapse survival.

    If the power goes out for more than 3 days, you're not going to be worrying about eating as much as your neighbors wanting to be eating.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:13pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Some Iodines are toxic - be careful

    Povidone Iodine (used in Betadine and other solutions) can be toxic if ingested.

    Historically (from before 1800s-early 1900s), people used Lugol's solution for internal consumption.  It protects against all kinds of things, including radiation sickness.  I take a few drops randomly every week.

    If you are going to consume iodine, you should research places other than this forum. (Just like you should not make cocktails with rubbing alcohol!)

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:03pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Wipes

    Thanks, dtrammel, et.al.  One thing that has always bugged me about wipes, the containers, once opened allow the towlettes to dry out.  So I opened the containers I bought and put the roll in a sealed plastic baggy.  I tear off about 5 at a time, fold them and put in a small, sealed sandwich baggy to carry in car or pocket.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 2:39pm

    Machine

    Machine

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    I started preparing the second I could see there was a problem.

    I started getting ready or stocking up on food and water the first week of January.  During the 2nd week of that month, I just kept track and things and by the 13th I ordered hazmat suites with excellent breathing devices.  And more food and water, MRE's and dried food.  I also started warning friends and family to get ready as this looks bad to me.  Some laughed and thought I was nuts.  Oh well, not much I can say about that.  On the Third week I put a decontamination area with bucket full of water and a bottle of bleach close by to add to the water.  So when we had to go out, when one of us came back we could decontaminate ourselves.   Also purchased more water and food.  As of now I have my radio station set up and supplies to max.  Ready to stay put for up to 6 to 8 months if necessary.   Some think I'm nuts!  But, I think I'm just fine and plan to keep it that way as you can't Trust the Government to take care of you.  Once you understand that your expendable, then you will have a better understanding of what I just said and have done.  Former Military and thank you so much for what you do here.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:08am

    dtrammel

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    Best Preventative Medicine For Infection - Sleep

    I've been following the news on the Corona virus, or as its now been named Covid-2019, pretty intensively across all of the sources.

    Besides Chris' videos, one of the Youtube channels that I've found informative is "Medcram".
    https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos

    Dr Seheult's latest video discusses how important sleep is to the immune system and how the best preventative medicine for this virus, and any virus for that matter is sleep. Especially the first few hours of sleep. You should make sure you get at least 8 hours of sleep in your day.

    Check the video out, it has a great explanation of how our immune system works.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8&t=620s

    He's going to be talking about this for the next couple of videos too.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:20am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Two Main ways to Approach this pandemic

    There are two main ways to approach this:

    • Lock yourself in the bunker and wait it out for 12-18 months.
    • Focus on staying healthy and practicing good hygiene.  Hope for the best.

    If it is as infectious as reported here, it will eventually either infect everyone or kill everyone (minus the bunker folks).  Perhaps some immunity will develop, or it will mutate into a weaker form.   I'm not good at predicting the future.

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:02am

    Barbara

    Barbara

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    There's a third option

    The third option, which it appears most of us are using is:

    Do a reasonable set of preparations and have a bug-out place identified.

    Focus on staying healthy and practicing good hygiene (if you or someone in your household are not high risk)

    Monitor outbreaks near you and be ready to up the game

    Avoid locations with large crowds where you can (work may not allow that)

    Identify your red line which moves you into short-term lockdown in place

    Identify the red line that moves you into lockdown in your bug-out location.

     

    The above is a rational plan, but I think you have to add to any of the three plans what to do when you or a family member may have been exposed.  The exposed person will probably interact with the family for several days before knowing of the exposure.  Once you know you're infected, of course you still need to worry about contagion, but it's what to do when you may have brought the virus into your home that appears to me to be the hardest decision.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:50am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    re:There's a third option

    Barbara, I agree.

    Unfortunately, the only way to be absolutely prevent infection (unless you are in a high-traffic community) is to sequester oneself and family immediately. Even this is not fool-proof, as we may have encountered someone in our daily travels.  (I was in an international airport 3 weeks ago; I might be carrying and spreading it unknowingly.)  It is impossible to know as even the testing kits will fail below a certain threshold.

    Given the long incubation period, your odds of infection (and subsequent silent contagion) increase daily.  Putting a school-aged child into home quarantine for up to a month is well-nigh impossible.  Sequestering a sick person doubly so.  You will have contagion within the home, unless you happen to live in a former research lab with decontamination chambers, etc.

    The benefit of having a "bug-out" location is that, when the epidemic strikes, you have a place to isolate yourself and reduce the chances of re-infection.  (Make sure the Census folks know that you already sent in your form.)  Let's hope that you will still be able to get there.

     

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:51am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Unwanted vistors

    I suggest that folks make some signs that say "Biohazard - Quarantine" to deter unwanted visitors.

    Let's hope they never have to be used.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:17pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    Bug In Maybe The Only Option For Many

    Great points Barbara and wyrldtraveler. This is definite one of those situation where just packing up and bugging out, carries the risk of you taking the problem with you.

    Unfortunately, I think for too many, including myself and my family, bugging out isn't an option. Yes, friends and I have talked long on buying some country property but like most, the money never was there. Best we can do I'm afraid is try and make the best of a difficult situation where we live now.

    I figure we have had the 1st Generation wave with the massive outbreak in China. Whether it flattens out and the CCP gets a handle on the outbreak is questionable. If there are significant portions of China's population still under self quarantine and  factories there are still not up and running in any percentage, then I expect real problems politically there. Whether China has a major revolution and chaos is up in the air, literally.

    2nd gen wave in the rest of the Asian rim, the US and UK is just beginning. Maybe we see large outbreaks like China or maybe we dodge that for something more like a bothersome serious flu outbreak with over worked healthcare is 50/50. I expect a recession to come out of it though, even with the Fed pumping money. With so many unable to pay for treatment, perhaps we will even see "helicopter money" for the Masses.

    I expect 2nd gen wave to wane with the Summer heat in the Northern hemisphere but the 3rd gen wave to hit hard the South as Winter arrives. Complicating that is how hard Covid hits central Africa (Ethiopia probably) in April/May. If Africa falls, then the southern part of Africa will have to face the Winter hard on the heals of a destroyed health system.

    India is the wild card. They have the population of China without the political might of the CCP. And Pakistan to the East.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:25pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    Getting Supplies - Don't Forget Local Distributors

    Just a reminder, if you are looking to buy sanitation and cleaning supplies, look around for places like restaurant and medical supply stores.

    I stopped by a couple today in my running around, looking for a 55 gallon drum for water storage. No luck, but their prices on common items, like rubber gloves, masks and cleaning supplies was significantly cheaper. I saw a box 100 vinyl gloves I'd just bought at a hardware store for $9, on sale for $5 (regularly $7). They also had Lysol in 1 gallon jugs. A hand sprayer and mixing it yourself is much cheaper than a lot of the spray cans.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:10pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    4

    Routes Of Infection By Severity - Discussion

    “Knowing where the trap is—that's the first step in evading it.”
    Frank Hebert, "Dune".

    I feel we are at the point that we can go from the planning stage to the tactical stage of this crisis, that is identifying the routes this virus takes to infect the population and the figure out the ways to avoid that infection.

    While each of us will have a different path to walk in this darkness, we will all face some common dangers, and some less than common.

    With the assumption that no one person can view all directions of a circle, that it is an act best done by many, I wanted to open a discussion into what are going to be the ways we encounter the virus, how likely it may effect us, and ways of which we can avoid becoming ill, and spreading it to others.

    Without judging the severity yet or the ways we might protect against infection (which we will cover later), I will throw out some general thoughts and observations about the ways I see the virus spreading.

    Please rate what you think is the severity of each of these routes. And any you see I've missed as well.

    ---

    Via Family Member:

    I think this may well be the most likely pathway that we get infected. The close quarters we live with our partners, children, parents and even roommates, means that when one member of the household group becomes infected, it means the almost certain infection of the others in the group.

    This route is made more severe by the asymmetrical nature of the virus, how it seems that an infected individual can show no symptoms, and still be shedding infectious particles. By the time you realize a family member is infected, you all will probably have it.

    Via Emergency Healthcare:

    A hospital emergency room at the best of times is a swamp of pathogens and illnesses, made worse by close quarters. With it being more and more likely this virus spreads via aerosol transmission, being able to prevent infection in such an environment is problematical.

    Yet there are just some medical help that you can not provide in a home situation.

    Child Care:

    Unfortunately too many people rely on third party child care, which often involves the children of people outside of our contact circle, making each child a possible route of infection.

    So too staff, who will be exposed and possibly infected.

    Handling The Dead:

    I haven't yet seen any information on how infectious the dead bodies are. I must assume that given the virus can live for several hours to several days outside of the body to mean that handling the dead will have risks.

    Also many people experience a loss of bodily functions at death. Fecal transmission I believe has been established. Bedding will also be infectious. Cleaning and preparing the dead for burial or transportation to disposal will carry risks.

    Accidental Infection When Removing PPE:

    More of a contact pathway, when removing your personal protective equipment, like masks and glove, you can accidentally infect yourself or your environment.

    Casual Romantic Partners:

    Not sure if bodily fluids are infectious, but the close contact any romantic encounter has almost certainly offers a pathway to infection is on partner is asymptomatic and does not know they are infected.

    Casual Necessary Contact:

    Sales people, store clerks even the police officer who pulls you over for a ticket can share a space with you long enough for infection.

    This can include physical items you pick up in a public area. A box of food at a store, which was handled by an infected individual just before you pick it up, may transmit the virus to your hands.

    Shared Meals and Food Preparation:

    We have already seen a group infection via a communal meal time happen. Though viral infection of food yet to be confirmed, shared meal prep, utensils and close quarters provide a pathway for the virus.

    Shared Sanitation Facilities - Public/Private:

    Fecal transmission has been established. Back splashing of contaminated waste water which aerosals provides one pathway, as does contaminated surfaces like toilet seat and sink surfaces.

    Public Transportation:

    Areas which have mass transit, like buses, subways and trains put large groups of people in close proximity and shared air.

    Domestic and International airplane travel presents risks as well.

    Private Transportation:

    Carpooling as well as Ride Share services like Uber and Lyft, present the possiblity of previous riders and/or the driver being infected and contaminating the interior of the vehicles.

    Work Spaces:

    Coworkers and work spaces can become infected by just one or two people. Those that work there, or those that need to stop by to conduct commercial activities can be infected. Those areas which are small and enclosed, like elevators will magnify the risk.

    Public Entertainment:

    Bars, concerts and theaters offer large groups of people sharing space for a length of time enough to transmit the virus.

    Surface Contact:

    Will depend on how frequently the surface is contacted. Out of the way door knobs will be less likely to be retouched before the virus dies. Exterior door handles which have many people per hour touching them will likely stay infected.

    Mail and Shipped Packaging:

    Will depend on the length of time it takes to get from first point of infection to the final destination. Exterior surfaces will be less likely to be infected, as will interior contents. Someone infected sneezing on a document, which is packaged and shipped by next day air, may still be infectious on arrival.

    Items shipped via sea transport, truck or train and not opened immediately less likely.

    ---

    What other routes of infection can you identify?

     

     

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 8:03am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    re: Routes Of Infection By Severity - Discussion

    After viewing "28 Weeks Later", I can see a very nasty possible future.

    While this virus is not quite so violent or fast-acting, the Number One transmission vector is YOUR CELL PHONE.

    As I pointed out before, unless our society magically permits us to run around in gas masks and biohazard suits, our options are to hide in a bunker or simply try to minimize risk while staying healthy.  Very few people can set up and operate decontamination chambers and airlocks properly.

    All of your PPE will go out the window the first time you have a traffic stop.  If you refuse the cop, you get arrested and it gets ripped off for the mug shot.  Then you go into a public holding cell.

    If it's aerosolized, you're going to get it...  Unless you are in that Level-4 suit.  If you are changing bedding, where is the deceased?  Are they in a bedroom in your home or an isolation chamber with Negative-Pressure Ventilation? Can you sanitize carpeting or is everything already plastic/vinyl/stainless steel (like in a hospital).  Do you sterilize (not clean) your laundry room every load?  Does it have separate exhaust ventilation? Will you be able to sterilize the pathway between that bedroom and your laundry room every trip?  Does your home have positive pressure ventilation to keep the exhaust from sucking germs in through the cracks under the doors, etc.?

    Children and pets will negate the best preparation in seconds.  In a pandemic, there is no 'dating', no going out to eat, no restaurants open, no theaters, no unnecessary shopping or travel... unless you don't care or don't know.  Any small town needs only a few people to infect the whole town.... the trucker who fills up the underground tanks at the convenience store infects the clerk, who then talks to hundreds of customers every day...

    Westerners have been conditioned to think that we can solve the majority of life's problems by going shopping.  We're not going to be allowed to run around in the appropriate level of PPE (goggles, gloves, mask) in public, so we can forget that.

    Unless you have a dedicated bedroom and bathroom separate from the rest of the living quarters, infected people will contaminate the whole place.  It can blow out a window and back in the next one.  It can migrate through your air ducts (when did you clean those last?) in your home, your vehicle.  It can cling to your clothing, rub off on walls and handles.

    The economic impacts will likely be worse than the biological impacts for many of us.  We can prepare for the shelves going empty by shopping before the shelves are empty.  After that, we won't be going out to search for food that isn't there.

    We will see more people starving than infected.  Legalized marijuana will let those sick people stay stoned until it is all over or they are dead.  The rest will get rounded up under the guise of public safety: looking for food = spreading virus.  The military has started their machine rolling; it's a matter of time before the infamous FEMA camps get activated (if not already).  All of those stockpiled body bags and caskets may come in handy.

    We can't prepare (by shopping) for an invisible particle that can live for days in the open and for weeks in the body before announcing itself, if ever.  Unless you are buying a surplus missile silo with all of the machinery in place, or a hospital or old research lab, you're wasting your resources, effort and brainpower on trying to be 100% safe.

    We are all going to die.  Some of us will go sooner than later.  This virus won't get all of us, but it will get some of us sooner than later.  And those who survive it, will have to deal with a Brave New World.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 8:30am

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

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    Joined: Feb 01 2020

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    2

    Beware of Common objects

    The item in the store that was handled by someone else rang an alarm bell for me. Any common object that someone else,ay have touched would need to be handled with gloves and/or with an antiseptic wipe. I bought a bunch of individually wrapped ones for us to carry around in our pockets...no more pumping gas, opening doors, etc. barehanded, even knowing anyway that forgetting just once leaves you exposed. But you can still try to avoid.  Some folks have talked about food delivery (no thank you!!). I suppose you can spray boxed packages you need to open with Lysol and let it sit.  I’m thinking what to do about sick room surfaces...carpeting, wood furniture, blinds, pictures on the wall.  Remove all small items? Cover the rest with plastic that you can spray with disinfectant? Because I am thinking I’m not going to be able to keep that room sealed. Thoughts?

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 1:27pm

    agitating prop

    agitating prop

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    2

    Ineffective tool

    The WHO released results from China indicating 82% of cases are mild (not a very effective weapon in terms of lethality).

    The most effective weapon, would be one that disabled the enemy economically. Further to that, if the cause of the epidemic can be clearly camouflaged by reasonable assumptions that it occurred naturally within the enemy's own country...it's beyond perfect.

    Not saying I believe this. Just saying, I feel it is a possibility within a broader range of possibilities. Nothing should be ruled out, based on institutions that rely on funding from government and who may have very legitimate fears for their own livlihoods, if not safety, if they were to ever voice their own suspicions.

    We are living in a world where it is a base requirement to be highly suspicious, without being paranoid.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 7:49pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 65

    1

    most effective weapon, would be one that disabled the enemy economically.

    One can choose to view this as a war between Nation-States; in which case I agree with your reading, but the question here is "Who Benefits?"

    Another view is a war between the Elite (insanely mega-rich) and Everyone Else.  If Leaders care not for the 'little people', it doesn't matter which flag they live under.

    People forget that Kim Jong Il is far away from his friends from boarding school.  He's doing his job, not enjoying his life.  If he could put it all on autopilot, I am sure he would.

    President Trump and President Clinton are buddies; they went to parties together.  Neither one will be worried if the price of beans doubles or triples overnight.  Bernie is a millionaire.  I can only speculate how many professional politicians are still in office because they would be subject to criminal charges once they leave politics.  They can call for disarming the public since they have taxpayer-funded security teams (armed with the latest tech) to protect them.... from us?

    The Elite could weather a 6 month disruption; the single mom on SNAP/food stamps/public assistance can't last 2 weeks, if not 2 days.

    Rioting will justify use of force.  Wait for it; it's coming.  If you've never been in a riot, you won't recognize the signs, but it's building up to a breaking point.  This might be what pushes people over the edge.

    The ideal outcome for a ruling elite is for the people to enslave themselves, willingly.  Forced vaccinations (for our safety)?   Food kitchens for the masses (due to the mess that China created)? We can only speculate.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 8:42pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Bug-in Option and how this pandemic plays out

    I don't yet have our bug-out option settled, so it'll likely be a bug-in scenario for me and mine. I agree with your forward-thinking assessment dtrammel,  except for the waning of the virus in the second wave with the summer heat. I'm not convinced yet that that warmer weather in itself will be enough to mitigate all the other variables that have contributed to Covid-2019's stealth, resilience and spread.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 9:53pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    5

    Next 2-3 Weeks Will Tell

    I feel like the next couple of weeks will tell us which way this boulder rolls, either towards the "simply a worse flu than normal" or towards the "this is going to really change our society".

    I'm reminded of 9-11 or the Challenger disaster. Events which changed our world in fundamental ways.

    I wanted to say how much I appreciate all of you, so much smarter than me, who have posted amazingly detailed posts on things here, and others who have keep their eye to the fringe news where the truth lies. Because of you work, I feel less afraid and more secure in the knowledge I can survive this.

    Be safe everyone.

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  • Sun, Feb 16, 2020 - 10:24pm

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

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    Wyrldtraveler

    i suggest you lay off the movies

    8/9 infected in U.K. are recovered. Decent odds to me. Current data shows 80 percent will have minor symptoms. Most of those dying are very old or have chronic health issues.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 12:00pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 65

    0

    wyrldtraveler said:

    New data from Lancet article:

    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S2213260020300795.pdf

    Study suggests CFR of 12.5% in all SARS-CoV2 admissions.  While there is a low CFR in the healthcare system which has yet to be overwhelmed, the possibilities that re-infection (no developed immunity?) may trigger the cytokine storm and require hospitalization reduces your odds (according to this study) to about 50% survival on Round Two of You vs. SARS-CoV2.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 29, 2020 - 4:54pm

    Avatar

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 01 1970

    Posts: 61626

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    said:

    I FOUND OUT THAT I HAD HERPES THEN I STARTED TAKING SOME DRUGS BUT WAS OF NO HELP, I FELT SO IRRITATED, I WAS STILL SEARCHING FOR SOLUTION THEN I CAME ACROSS ROBINSON.BUCKLER @[YAHOO.] COM, I TRIED HIS HERBAL SOLUTION AND WAS SURPRISED HOW I GOT CURED, IT'S AMAZING, I AM SO HAPPY................

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