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    Coronavirus: ‘Nothing To See Here’ Say Markets & The Media

    Yet from what we can tell, governments are entering into panic mode
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, February 4, 2020, 12:03 PM

As the Wuhan coronavirus spread worsens, the financial markets are throwing one hell of party, hitting record highs.

Yet the world’s #2 economy, China, just hung up a big “CLOSED” sign — stocks should be tanking hard here.

How can they shrug off the virus’ threat to global trade?

Chris believes that government intervention is at play here. There are few things that send the soothing signal that “All is well” more than higher stock prices do.

As politicians say: “When it gets serious, you have to lie”. Folks, it looks like the coronavirus is so serious that governments are in full panic-suppression mode.

It’s becoming harder and harder to trust the official guidance being issued — we need to educate ourselves from other sources as best we can.

Meanwhile, the new data we are gathering suggest the virus continues to be more contagious than previously expected…

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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172 Comments

  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:21pm

    #1

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    15

    Two Updates In One Day

    Thanks Chris for the hard work. Don't run yourself into the ground please.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:30pm

    #2
    Thetallestmanonearth

    Thetallestmanonearth

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2013

    Posts: 330

    5

    Tie in to the three E’s

    Hi Chris, thanks for the great reporting. Since there are so many new people following this it might be worth while to add some context for why a down turn at this stage in our story could be so critical. I’m thinking here of resource depletion, environmental hard limits and the funny money sloshing around the system.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:31pm

    #3
    Thetallestmanonearth

    Thetallestmanonearth

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    Joined: Feb 28 2013

    Posts: 330

    0

    Tie in to the three E’s

    Hi Chris, thanks for the great reporting. Since there are so many new people following this it might be worth while to add some context for why a down turn at this stage in our story could be so critical. I’m thinking here of resource depletion, environmental hard limits and the funny money sloshing around the system.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:40pm

    #4
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

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    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 417

    7

    This is what desperation by the Central Banks looks like

    The fake fraudulent financial “markets” are now running up against the real world.   The game has been played for a long time, and most of us know the everything bubble has to come to an end at some point.  When e bubble pops it pops.  What we are seeing with this ridiculous goosing of the markets is *desperation* by the world’s central banks.  I’m genuinely concerned now that I’m seeing this.  Tells me we are seeing one huge lie by TPTB.  Scary stuff.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:42pm

    #5
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    4

    mainstream media starting to report on potential R naught...

    Stuff that we been discussing for a week.....

     

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/researchers-say-the-coronavirus-may-be-more-contagious-than-current-data-shows.html

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 1:01pm

    #6

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    9

    Last Big Grab Before It All Goes Under?

    I wonder if its not desperation but intentional. The Feds know that publicly saying they will backstop the Markets for the short term is going to have the obvious effect of making it go up.

    I can't help but think this might just be the last little bit of looting by the big guys who can burrow money from the Fed's repo market. They can grab $50million for a day or two, make another 5-10 as the Market goes up on the taxpayer dime, then cash out and go short come Friday as it becomes apparent there really is a problem on the horizon.

    Then jet off to their hidey hole mansion in New Zealand and wait out the first wave of the virus. Enjoy the Fall weather down under. Come back in 3 months and scoop up the companies and yes governments who crashed on the cheap.

    If history is accurate then we'll see another wave of nCov in the late Fall, just in time for the election. I wonder if locally imposed quarantines or canceling large group events (like say election night lines at voting places) might not be a good enough excuse to delay the election and keep Trump in office?

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 1:31pm

    Steve

    Steve

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    9

    State of the Union

    Maybe it's coincidental that, on the surface, the economy looks so rosey on the day of the "state of the union" address.  China market drops 8%, then pumps in $175 billion followed by another $400 billion today.  Wonder how much the fed and other central banks pumped into the markets today.  Yep. The address tonight should be lots of accolades about the best economy and stock market ever.

    Keep up the good work, Chris.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 1:41pm

    #8

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    15

    Had lunch with four very successful lawyers today

    Not a single word about coronavirus. Not. a. word.

    I've learned from the past that you cant talk about "bad" things with people that aren't prepared to discuss them. I didn't bring anything up. 3 of these are my office mates.

    I've learned that those of us on PP are simply wired differently. Our minds are allowed to entertain unpleasant scenarios without shutting down. Consider it a gift.

    As for the virus news itself, there's a bunch of new videos out of China (see twitter) showing bodies everywhere. Nanjing another mega city very far from Wuhan is now on military lockdown.

    How much longer until the huge cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, etc, go on full lock down.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 1:48pm

    #9
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1

    There is room for the virus to get worse...

    A study led by University of Minnesota researcher Li Fang predicted that a single mutation at a specific spot in the genome could significantly increase the virus’s ability to bind with cells on the surface of the human respiratory system

    https://jvi.asm.org/content/jvi/early/2020/01/23/JVI.00127-20.full.pdf

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 2:07pm

    #10

    sebastian

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 08 2010

    Posts: 21

    6

    Mega city lockdowns.

    How are these giant cities in China  feeding themselves?!? Without the people in the cities themselves going about their jobs? Everyone from the truck drivers to the dishwashers are essential cogs to the food supply line no? If a city has what 2-3 days of food supplies at any one point in time.... the stores are empty now, at what point does hunger/ desperation take over. Are they rioting already but nothing is getting out or is the army able to keep them fed enough. What a nightmare. I’ve got enough basic calories and water to last my family for 6-9 months but I’m severely lacking in the self defence area... I’ve not grown up with a guns for hunting/self defence background. Consequently I have a big O when it comes to that resiliency... My city living brother in law has that side of things down but very little resiliency when it comes to a protracted situation. Perhaps this is something to pursue.

    Anybody know how long and what the process of getting a rifle/hand gun in Canada is like?

    Seb.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 2:31pm

    #11

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 5921

    6

    Latest: 23,865 infected, 479 dead

    Wuhan coronavirus still spreading fast, but possibly no longer at a geometric/exponential rate.

    But who knows how undercounted this official data may be?

    (the chart above maps data through yesterday)

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 2:48pm

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    1

    Reply to Adam Taggart

    Chris pointed out somewhere that the official chinese numbers are following a certain model to the T. This model predicated 499 deaths for today and they came in just under.

    Zhejiang province:    829 cases 0 deaths   43 serious 15 critical

    Guangdong province 813   0 deaths   60 serious 26 critical

    Interesting how these two provinces have yet to report a fatality despite having a huge reported case load.

    On another note, the international reported cases have a very low CFR which is great so far. 178 cases, 4 serious, 1 death.

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 2:55pm

    schmidtma01

    schmidtma01

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    Posts: 16

    2

    Two releases of data

    Adam, keep in mind that there are two releases of data per day, one at 2 PM (Pacific) from Hubei and one at 4 PM from NHC. While the 4 PM release, to date, has been fewer relative cases, it is growing. For the past few days, it has knocked the number back up to exponential growth from the slightly less than exponential growth that it appears after the 2 PM release.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 2:57pm

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 5921

    3

    This model

    schmidtma01 -

    You're referring to this model here (mentioned in the video in the OP above):

    For today, the model called for 23,803 infected and 499 dead. Pretty darn close...as it has been for the past many days.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 3:01pm

    #15
    PokerBear

    PokerBear

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    Joined: Jun 03 2008

    Posts: 5

    1

    Rational explanation of human error

    This article makes the case that this Wuhan Coronavirus will turn into the next great disaster of man trying to outdo Nature:

    ‪"Simply and horribly, this is likely to be yet another Chernobyl or Fukushima – a catastrophic illustration of mankind’s hubris and intransigence clashing with Nature, and fate once again reaping the once unimaginably tragic toll."‬

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 3:05pm

    silvercloud

    silvercloud

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    silvercloud said:

    Do you have a link for news about the Nanjing military lockdown?

     

    Nothing comes up about this on Google.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 3:06pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    5

    Buy a shotgun

    Sebastian, not sure about the laws of buying guns in Canada, but you can buy guns for hunting can't you. If so for a novice one of the best home defensive weapon is a good old 12 gauge shotgun. Buy 5-6 boxes of #4 buckshot (small 1/4inch size shot) and a couple of boxes of #00 (called double aught).

    #4 buckshot has about 20 pellets and at home ranges of 15-20 feet will hit an intruder like a sledge hammer while not penetrating inside walls and doors to hit family or friend. #00 pellets are larger and heavier, and will travel farther and still hurt. Save those for people outside the house.

    Personally I would go with a semi auto versus a pump action for the ability to first 3 rounds without fumbling the slide in a panic. Others will prefer a pump action for its ability to clear a jammed or misfired round.

    If you have a wife who is of a smaller frame, maybe a 20 gauge shotgun, which has a lighter kick, though many women I know have no problem with the larger gun.

    Here in the US you can find them for a few hundred dollars.

    I expect that this question and the answers will be very lively, lol.

    You aren't going to be fighting a war, but just scaring off possible intruders looking for a quick score.

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 3:35pm

    MiguelitoDeSilva

    MiguelitoDeSilva

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 4

    2

    Reply about shotgun

    #4 might make it through a conventional sheetrock wall. I prefer to keep a round of #7 or #8 first in the chamber which will still ruin someone's day at close range for home defense. It serves as a warning shot for everyone in the house to hit the ground because the next ones will be 00 buck and coming through. My home defense 12-gage pump shotgun has a short barrel, no choke, red dot sight, tactical light, a full load with no spacer plus the #8 in the chamber. It's really hard to miss with this thing.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 3:41pm

    #19
    Lisa Mooney

    Lisa Mooney

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    1

    Lisa Mooney said:

    https://youtu.be/eEUqCxP5Lvc

    Chris did you see this video about Chinese MD whistle blower?

    Thank you and Adam for all your hard work

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 3:44pm

    #20
    Lisa Mooney

    Lisa Mooney

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    Joined: Jan 25 2020

    Posts: 21

    2

    Wuhan residents

    Also this new video about Wuhan from residents.https://youtu.be/8QeqInTT4Cc

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 4:01pm

    #21

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    2

    24,551 of which 2,792 (11%) in critical condition

    of which 2,792 (11%)
    in critical condition

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 4:49pm

    #22

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 826

    3

    Harvard Prof doing illegal bio stuff in Wuhan

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/politics/harvard-professor-chinese-nationals-arrest-espionage/index.html

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 4:54pm

    #23
    LabCat

    LabCat

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    Joined: Jan 28 2020

    Posts: 45

    11

    If this were a hurricane....

    If there were a Cape Verde tropical disturbance, 3,700 miles from Florida that had a 5% chance of developing into a named storm, yet was featured in a spaghetti model making landfall in Miami as a Cat 5 Hurricane, the media would be losing their minds.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:13pm

    Mdjared

    Mdjared

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    Joined: Feb 02 2019

    Posts: 10

    14

    Replying in agreement with George

    I was in a training today, presented by the FBI, filled with Police. I am neither, but was there for another reason, regardless, the only mention of the Corona Virus were multiple jokes. I was surprised and had hoped for a more seasoned response based on who was in attendance. The PP community is indeed a different breed and I’m grateful to be a part of it.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:28pm

    Mdjared

    Mdjared

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    Joined: Feb 02 2019

    Posts: 10

    6

    Don’t buy a gun if you don’t know how to use it

    If you didn’t grow up with firearms, I highly suggest you consider mace or pepper spray, a baseball bat, or some other weapon you could actually use to defend yourself. If you don’t know how to load a gun or fire a gun, it will take some practice. Although a shotgun is certainly a good place to start for a beginner, the statistics are clear that you’re far more likely to injure yourself or someone else if you don’t know how to safely operate a gun.

    If you want to learn a new skill, a shotgun is a useful tool to learn (don’t bother with a rifle or pistol if this is for this crisis), but without some training or at least an hour with your brother-in-law, you’re probably just giving the intruder a weapon to use against you.  Do you know the difference in shell sizes? Not shot size but shell size?

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:32pm

    #26
    annie

    annie

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    Joined: Dec 07 2008

    Posts: 21

    4

    Information from Canada about Canada's response.

    Some news to bring to the attention of Chris, Adam and the PP community.  I'm in Canada and so far our response has been nothing short of pathetic.   Here is the link for 'health professionals' as to the testing protocol in BC currently. http://www.bccdc.ca/resource-gallery/Documents/Statistics%20and%20Research/Statistics%20and%20Reports/Epid/Influenza%20and%20Respiratory/ERV/BCCDC_PHL_Updated_nCoV_Lab_Guidance.pdf

    You'll notice that it says the following;  Testing is available for patients with compatible symptoms (e.g. fever, cough, or difficulty breathing) AND history of travel to affected areas of China within two weeks prior to illness onset or other index of suspicion (e.g,. contact with an ill person with such travel history).

    What about the rest of Canada?  Seems it's also the case. Here's what we're being told.

    https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/frequently-asked-questions.html

    And this was on the Public Health of Canada website (Canada's Official Government) website.  "If a person presents with symptoms of influenza-like illness and within 14 days before the onset of illness, has travelled to an area where the virus is known to be circulating, and/or been in close contact with a probable or confirmed case of 2019-nCoV or someone who has travelled to an affected area...."

    It would seem then that they are only testing a limited amount of people, people who have had direct contact with people from an affected area.  If this is passed through taxi drivers and busses etc. then by not testing people we can happily be assured that we'll have hardly any cases in Canada!  I'm saddened by Canada's inability to take this seriously and protect its citizens.

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:47pm

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    1

    Annie

    Canada doesn't seem too concerned about this Virus. Neither does the US

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:48pm

    #28
    MKI

    MKI

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    Joined: Jan 12 2009

    Posts: 253

    1

    Flu: yet another reason to own blue-chip, dividend paying stocks

    The fake fraudulent financial “markets” are now running up against the real world.

    Just the opposite! The Fed has found yet another reason to goose the stock market, exactly as expected.

    They are nowhere near "running up against the real world". Where do you get this? Rather, they are redistributing wealth. Made a lot of money today, with very little risk (just keep decent stop losses).

    What will it take for everyone to accept the Fed has the "markets" by the tail? One must play or pay (via inflation, redistribution). It's been this way for over a decade. Do you really think this is going to change anytime soon?

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:49pm

    #29
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

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    550 US passengers expected on two flights leaving nCoV ground zero Wuhan, housed at 2 Cali AFBs

    Two more flights carrying Americans fleeing coronavirus are expected to leave Wuhan soon

    "About 550 passengers will be aboard the two flights departing from Wuhan, China, the official told CNN on condition of anonymity....The latest flights are expected to head to two California military bases: Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, and Travis Air Force Base between San Francisco and Sacramento, according to the official."

    "Even more flights from Wuhan for US citizens could be scheduled. The State Department tweeted it "may be staging flights" on Thursday and interested citizens should contact it by email....Americans who remain in China should take precautionary measures, including "stocking up on food," the State Department said."

    (Source)

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:06pm

    #30
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 730

    4

    Its a done deal stick a fork in it. If they want to think its just the flu - so be it.

    Chris, You did all you were supposed to, you predicted the virus, was going pandemic, you helped us know how serious it is.   It seems that the world is finally in the consensus with us that this is not going to be stopped.  Even the chairman of the CDC stated this morning this is here with us and will be circulating for the next 2-3 years and it wont be stopped.. However he did spin it.  As no biggie its just like the flu or H1N1 - and is a mild illness for most.   He used the fact, acknowledging, that the counts are wrong and the infections are way greater than reported to diminish the fatality rates.    But we are ten days into this and it takes 3 weeks to kill often - this has been demonstrated.. and so we know that because its growing so fast and death so slow from infection that, its way way higher.. but you proved this you proved this was pandemic more than 10 days ago.. and it was just yesterday that the masses and media finally accepted its here. and to stay.    However, they will eventually see how this is a serious illness and will well overwhelm an already taxed health system.  this will be a catastrophe and if they think they will circulate for 3 years.. we have big problems - i do expect 2-3 waves for sure. so if no vaccine this is going to change our lives forever. and since china is shuttered.  And produces eveything  including cars and car parts.. , we will be like cuba having to pin together our cars.. of used and hand fabricated parts.. its coming and it is going to be really not good.   It will change the life we have become accustomed to.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:13pm

    #31
    FooBarr

    FooBarr

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 21 2010

    Posts: 62

    0

    FYI: interesting 40 min video on Spanish flu epedemic, worth watching while waiting for Chris's next update.

    Wow, that was interesting....I had finished watching a YouTube Vid that was linked from this thread and then happened to notice a another video on the sidebar documenting the Spanish flu epidemic.  Similar story, lack of politicians and civic leaders to act in a timely fashion, all because there was a war going on...

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:14pm

    #32
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    1

    nCoV exposure: "Close contact" depends on the mode of transportation

    [Translated]

    "Experts from the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention said that the definition of close contacts is different in different modes of transportation. Let's take a look at the basic situation:

    aircraft

    In general, all passengers in the same row and three rows in front and back of case seats in civil aircraft cabins, as well as flight attendants who provide cabin services in the above-mentioned areas, serve as close contacts. Other passengers on the same flight as general contacts.

    Railway passenger train

    ① All passengers and flight attendants in case of fully enclosed air-conditioned trains with hard seats, hard sleepers or soft sleepers in the same compartment.

    ② Take non-fully enclosed ordinary trains, passengers in the same room with soft sleepers in the same room, or passengers in the same compartment and adjacent compartments in the same section of the hard seat (hard sleeper) compartments, and attendants serving the area.

    car

    ① When traveling in a fully-sealed air-conditioned bus, all persons traveling in the same car as the case.

    ② When riding in a ventilated ordinary passenger car, passengers and drivers in three rows of seats before and after the same case as the case.

    Steamship

    All persons in the same cabin as the case and the flight attendants serving the cabin.

    If the patient has severe symptoms such as high fever, sneezing, coughing, and vomiting during contact with the case, they should be treated as close contacts regardless of the length of time.

    Citizen: How high is the risk of infection in the same elevator?

    Because the new coronavirus can be transmitted through contact, if a patient sneezes or coughs in the elevator, it may pollute the elevator buttons and other places. If healthy people touch the eyes or mouth without washing their hands in time, they may be infected.

    (Source, FluTrackers, h/t "Shiloh"posted 2/2/20)

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:16pm

    RebelYell

    RebelYell

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    Joined: Dec 21 2019

    Posts: 105

    0

    Annie

    I suspect the problem is availability of test kits.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:18pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 462

    2

    What’s your risk Seb?

    The decision to acquire a gun should be based on your perceived risks I think Seb. I don’t know where you are in Canada but I will say that I am not feeling that type of threat at all. As others have mentioned, this is not even garnering respectful attention, never mind active preparations. It is not even on most people’s radars. The only way it will get attention is if the virus knocks Facebook off line or something like that. I am curious to know why you feel you need a gun? Note to American members, and with all due respect,  we simply do not have the same gun culture up here.

    I am no expert but I understand a course in gun safety is necessary prior to getting a license to purchase a firearm.  You cannot just walk into a store and buy a gun... I believe the feds administer the gun registry so perhaps you can find info on their website. It will take time so if you are intent better get at it.

    As a side note, a few weeks ago we had about 4 days of really adverse weather that saw many ferry cancellations. Vancouver Island relies heavily on ferry service to keep stores supplied. We saw some grocer shelves depleted during that storm, thanks to the just in time delivery system for foodstuffs. That was a red flag for me and I have been re-stocking my deep pantry ever since. Now with the virus I have added additional things to support health & immune systems. I do think we will see this morph into a bigger deal in a few weeks time. Victoria is the capital of BC, and many government staff make routine trips to Vancouver, which I think has the capacity to get hit hard. That being said I still think my risk is fairly low. The game plan is to reduce potential for exposure, stay on top of healthy living practices, PAY ATTENTION to what is going on around me, and be ready to act accordingly. Beyond that, fate has a hand...

    Information is power - thanks again Chris & Adam and all contributors. Stay well everyone!

    Jan

     

    o

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:18pm

    #35
    Truth9834

    Truth9834

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 30

    1

    Truth9834 said:

    Great work on this site!  I'm sure this was mentioned but just in case here are a couple corona virus update sites (e.g., with confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered), https://wuflu.live/, https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/).

    Also similar to this excellent site discussing the corona virus another site does a good job in explaining this virus - google “Coronavirus Epidemic Update” by pulmonologist Dr. Good – his latest video fatality rate is 11% https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPwfiQgGsFo.

    Finally, the South China Morning Post has a new article titled: "Coronavirus: are cocktail therapies for flu and HIV the magic cure? Bangkok and Hangzhou hospitals put combination remedies to the test" that Arbidol, an antiviral drug used for treating influenza in China and Russia, could be combined with the anti-HIV drug Darunavir for treating corona virus, which I found interesting.

    That said, I am confused on how we can have thousands of corona virus cases (24k), yet very few deaths (.5k) and very few recoveries (1k). Shouldn't we have many more (thousands) recoveries or deaths? For example, on Twitter there was a report of confirmed sick 154,023; Suspected sick 79,808; Recovered from sickness 269; Dead from virus 24,589 at https://twitter.com/WarsontheBrink/status/1224760304606859269 which is probably fake but pretty scary.

    -James

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:28pm

    #36
    bman

    bman

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    Joined: Jan 17 2011

    Posts: 6

    2

    Cruise Ship

    I think this cruise ship is a fascinating case study.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/02/04/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-quarantined-passenger-diagnosed/4625907002/

    We know it left Jan 20, probably with 1 infected passenger, and now there are 10.  We can also assume no limitation in terms of opportunity for spread.  If we just do some back of the envelope calculations, assuming the R0 of 4 is correct, we can calculate that we were roughly 1.65 cycles into this after 14 days, meaning a cycle is about 8.5 days.  If we stick with that R0 and cycle time, and assume this whole thing has been going on since the beginning of December, we're about 7.6 cycles into this thing and should have about 41,000 infections by now.

    Now that first passenger left after only 5 days, probably preventing another infection or two, but a cruise ship has got to be fertile ground for a virus, so this might not be a bad comparison.  Obviously all of these numbers have massive margins of error, which would be additive.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:31pm

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    0

    2000...Central banks...

    If you haven't, read "Secrets of the Federal Reserve" by Eustace Mullins.

    I'd recommend it to everyone else as well.

    It will pretty much clear things up in a nut shell.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:39pm

    aggrivated

    aggrivated

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 22 2010

    Posts: 469

    9

    rest is a key ingredient for resiliance against disease

    Thanks for all your efforts, but we really really want you to be our healthy information scout. Give it your all and then sleep hard.

    Best

    Aggrivated

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:48pm

    bbtruth

    bbtruth

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 42

    3

    bbtruth said:

    So, with 550 U.S. citizens coming back from Wuhan, you would think there would be some kind of boots-on-the-ground info at least leaking out.  Further, how many cities with 10M+ populations need to be put under quarantine before this gets taken more seriously?
    Keep up the great work here Chris and Adam and anyone else contributing.  You have the right idea going here and I hope to learn and contribute myself.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 6:53pm

    #40
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 417

    4

    MKI

    To answer your question.....yes, I absolutely think the real world is changing in an exponential fashion right now.  That change is always slow at first, and then explodes faster than almost anyone can realize.  The disconnect will soon be unavoidable.  My personal opinion is the Coronavirus is going to change everything.  Could be wrong and very much hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think so.  Unfortunately, my mind doesn’t allow for magical thinking.  I wish you well on all those ridiculous profits you are making in the markets.  Good for you!!!!

     

     

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:15pm

    #41
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

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    Joined: Nov 01 2011

    Posts: 149

    0

    bodys missing?

    Having work on a grass crew in a cemetery I know little about thy work.If the China's government was burring mass amount of bodies it would be long trenches. The trenches would be 6 foot wide by 40 foot long and 6 foot deep.We never discuss how many bodies we could put in there, so I don't know.

    The other place to dispose of mass bodies is the crematory,this would allow mass cremation. You could tell the by the smoke coming out smokestack . If ether one these are true we should able to check by gool earth,so why are we not doing it?

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:23pm

    #42
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 58

    0

    Airline transmission

    Good article. Only people in close proximity to the infected person are at risk. Carry a mask on board to be used if you are near someone who is ill.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/02/04/how-likely-are-you-actually-get-sick-plane/?itid=hp_ed-picks_sick-plane0204%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:33pm

    guardia

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 26 2009

    Posts: 55

    2

    Re: Cruise Ship

    They found 10 cases in 31 people they tested. It takes 3 or 4 hours to test for each case with some very specialized very expensive equipment. They're obviously working hard to make testing more efficient, but we still have (3700 - 31) people that need testing on that ship...

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:41pm

    #44
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    10

    Post office

    I live very rural but luckily have small pocket PO not too far away.  I have been keeping the postmaster updated as I am retired and an info. junky.  She said she got an online safety class and was furnished anti virus spray by the USPS.  I was going to use dilute chlorox spray at home, but she informed me bleach takes 30 minute contact time to kill corona.  Her spray was a combo of organic ammonium chlorides. Short contact time.  So an alkaline, not acid, solution is needed to strip the virus coating and disable it.   Went to grocery store for wipes and saw even those branded Chlorox were made with the alkaline organic ammonium chlorides.  Never too old to learn new stuff.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:53pm

    bman

    bman

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    Joined: Jan 17 2011

    Posts: 6

    3

    Cruise Ship

    Really?  I just took a quick look and it appeared everyone had been evaluated.  If you are correct though, and that ratio holds, our civilization may be on the brink.  That ratio can't possibly hold though.  It's just way to high.  We'll have to wait and see.  In any event, it seems like as a best case, this cruise ship demonstrates that this pandemic will get worse by one order of magnitude every two weeks.  I was playing around with R0's and cycle times, but at the end of the day, we started with 1 infection (probably), and 14 days later we had 10.  Again, assuming this all got going at the beginning of December, we should be looking at about 40,000 right now, which is believable.  And 400,000 two weeks from now?  We'll see.  Surely everyone would be paying attention by then.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 8:02pm

    #46
    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    4

    Levity

    Q:  Do you know how to make G*d laugh?

    A: Tell Him your plans...

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 8:05pm

    Mark_BC

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 409

    2

    Mark_BC said:

    You will need to get a Possession and Acquisition License (PAL) by taking a course from any approved school. There might be a wait period after this before getting a gun, I'm not sure. A hunting license is another course on top of that.

    I wouldn't rely on the gun for self defence but it is good to have it. You have to have the gun locked up separately from ammunition so good luck using it for self defence legally. Although technically, you can have  trigger lock on it instead of being locked up, and there is nothing saying that the key can't be sitting right beside it.

    Forget about getting  a handgun, they are too restrictive, unless you want to break the law and store it illegally. Which, in a crisis, might be justifiable.

    Personally I'd just have a can of bear mace handy with other more formidable weapons nearby if needed once the intruder is disabled with mace. You'll probably want a respirator in that case. That way you won't do permanent damage to the intruder and won't have to worry about going to court for murder for protecting your own home.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 8:14pm

    Mark_BC

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 409

    0

    Mark_BC said:

    Just the opposite! The Fed has found yet another reason to goose the stock market, exactly as expected.

    They are nowhere near “running up against the real world”. Where do you get this? Rather, they are redistributing wealth. Made a lot of money today, with very little risk (just keep decent stop losses).

    What will it take for everyone to accept the Fed has the “markets” by the tail? One must play or pay (via inflation, redistribution). It’s been this way for over a decade. Do you really think this is going to change anytime soon?

    Agreed, it never ceases to amaze me how people who have been studying these rigged markets for so long can keep saying that the Fed is up against a wall when we still have positive interest rates. All they have to do is drop them some more and things will shoot up even more than they are now. They still have room.

    The Fed has the advantage of offsetting deflation with monetary inflation from money printing. It will continue for a while, assuming this virus doesn't screw up the whole world. I hold that out as a possibility. Once we are on the other side of this virus, if the system is still intact, expect even more massive gains.

    The system has always apparently been on the verge of crashing tomorrow for over 10 years now. One day it will but not now. I think at least a year, unless the virus gets out of control.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 8:20pm

    mweight01

    mweight01

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 29 2017

    Posts: 10

    7

    Mace vs. handgun - an inexpensive alternative

    Consider Hot Shot Hornet & Wasp Killer.  Shoots a 27' stream, easy to aim at the face and from what I understand, burns the eyes and nasal passages something awful.  Minimal blowback.  Readily available at grocery stores.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 8:37pm

    #50

    shawns333

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 30 2011

    Posts: 38

    6

    My, how the tone has changed 180 degrees now...

    Here's an article from Bloomberg that I found amusing in how they shifted from the "stop panicking, stupid!" tone to something that sounds 'alarmist' and what they were accusing others of doing just days ago:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/?sref=B46b5Rvh

    Here's some juicy bits if you can't read the article:

    Just a couple of weeks ago, scientists held out hope the new coronavirus could be largely contained within China. Now they know its spread can be minimized at best, and governments are planning for the worst.

    ...

    Total containment isn’t in the cards, said Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “Given the nature of this virus and how it’s spreading, that would be impossible. Our goal is to slow this thing down.”

    ...

    Measures taken in the U.S. have been criticized in China, where officials said the Americans are stoking fear and overreacting. The CDC responded that it has no choice. The infection is spreading rapidly and humans have no protection against it, Messonnier said. While most cases appear to be mild, the worry is that it will spread to a large number of people and turn deadly in those most vulnerable.

    “This is an unprecedented situation and we are taking aggressive measures,” she said. “We are preparing as if this were the next pandemic.”

    ...

    Hospitals are on alert. Providence St. Joseph Health, a chain of 51 hospitals and more than 1,000 clinics in seven western states, treated the first U.S. coronavirus case at one of its hospitals.

    “As soon as we got our initial patient it was our wake-up call,” said Amy Compton-Phillips, chief clinical officer for the hospital system.

    ...

    “If there’s a sudden surge of patients because of the fact that it’s that widespread, you clearly will never have enough airborne isolation rooms,” Jarrett said. “There just aren’t. No hospital has enough.”

    Basically, all of the same things that Chris & PP have been saying for the last couple of weeks. You see, if you say things 'too early' (no matter how prudent and with data being on your side), you will get vilified because the establishment is not yet ready to get rushed by you.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 8:43pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    George Karpozis

    I believe my instinct for survival, my ability to contemplate chaos and my utter disgust with those who try to fool Mother Nature is due to the wonderful, large set of Neanderthal gene variations I am blessed with.  It is the better part of us.  Thunder thighs, ugly skull but a survivor's thighs and skull.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:03pm

    sebastian

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 08 2010

    Posts: 21

    1

    We are fairly close

    Hi Jan,

    Im in Lund, so across the water from you. My current perceived danger is extremely low, really next to nothing. Lund itself has 250 people give or take. But we, like Van. Isl. rely on the steady supply of outside food inputs. I don’t foresee an immediate danger ie 1-3 weeks. But what if Vancouver ends up going the way of Beijing? It seems possible that with the large Chinese population in the lower mainland returning from holidays etc the corona virus could get a strong hold... I’ve looked into what it takes to acquire a gun and it’s a fairly straight forward  process but it can take up to 2 months.  It really depends how hard we are hit by this, but for all we know it could b similar to what is going on in China, then all bets are off. I’m fairly certain most folks around me have enough to feed themselves for 1-2 weeks... after that my rice and beans might look fairly apealing 🙂

    Seb.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:09pm

    #53
    LabCat

    LabCat

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    Joined: Jan 28 2020

    Posts: 45

    0

    How Long?

    How long until some deranged person tries to contract the virus and spread it among a group he despises?

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:11pm

    #54

    nickbert

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 285

    10

    Beijing keeping schools closed and transitioning to home-based schooling

    At least the Beijing city gov't is showing a shred of humanity and/or common sense by keeping kids out of the schools for a little longer. Doing online/televised courses instead may not be ideal, but here it's working well enough. My son has been watching the televised classes at home for the past few days now. He's loving it... spending just one or two hours with that instead of five or so hours a day and not having to walk to school. Even having him work on some workbooks I brought from the US he still spends much less time doing school stuff than before. Meanwhile my five-year-old daughter spends much of her time busy with drawing and painting, when she's not watching cartoons or playing with toys.

    Based off the imperfect information thus far and the incentive the CCP has to understate the numbers and seriousness of the outbreak, for now I'm going forward with the expectation that there could be no spring classes in the schools here at all. The Mongolian gov't (along with most Mongolians) is not only likely to continue assuming things are much worse in China than is reported, but they're also painfully aware of how ill-suited the local medical infrastructure's ability to handle a pandemic really is. Masks are near impossible to find, and even with expat Mongolians shipping boxes here there isn't enough for everyone. We're lucky in a sense that I work from home and can watch them during the day. My own work is definitely suffering due to all the distractions and time taken away due to the demands of our kids... but there's nothing to be done about it, and it's a lot better than the alternative of exposing the kids and family in a place where medical infrastructure is less prepared than the US. Likewise, many families here are adapting with grandparents and other relatives stepping in to watch the children while parents work. It's not convenient for anyone, but people are getting by.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:16pm

    #55
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    16

    Alert! Someone deleted Chris' Wikipedia page within the past 24 hrs.!! =:-0

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Martenson

    Uh-oh!!! Chris, Adam--is there a mirror/alternative site(s) in case PP goes dark??

    This level of censorship is really sickening. :-/

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:40pm

    Bleep

    Bleep

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2017

    Posts: 54

    8

    Chinese Resilience and Social Capital

    I don't know what is happening over there except what I hear from my in-laws.  People are sheltering in place and my wife's family is ok.  The only stores open right now are grocery stores from what they say.   I was in rural Sichuan in May 2008, just 3 days after the 7.9 earthquake.  All roads into several third tier cities were impassable.  Yet, people were getting food because industrious entrepreneurs were walking in, taking donkey carts or 4WD in mostly with food.  The government was also airlifting food and supplies into isolated areas.    Preparation for something like this is important but from a psychological point of view, it is also important to avoid catastrophizing and hysteria.   I hope people are taking care of themselves this way out there.   Rebecca Solnit in A Paradise Built in Hell. writes about differing responses to catastrophe using examples like Hurricane Katrina and you find paranoid, hoarding,  bloodthirsty folks after disaster but also close knit communities who are assisting, sharing food and supplies, supporting and protecting each other.   This is what Chris and Adam call Social Capital and it is so important at times like this!

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:48pm

    #57
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    11

    Alert! Wikipedia Hit Job on Chris!

    Here's the rationale (e.g., "not notable", "conspiracy theorist") for the deletion, started on Jan. 28th.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Christopher_Martenson

    This is a hit job, executed quickly and with precision. Chris must have hit a nerve.  I'm sick and furious!

    Commenter on the Wikipedia deletion page, "Someone Not Awful":

    "Wow, I have never seen an AFD closed so fast. It only took a week. In the past you had to first place a Proposed Deletion tag and after that you could start an AFD which took weeks or even months to be considered. This makes me reconsidering contributing to this project any longer. Someone Not Awful (talk) 23:19, 4 February 2020 (UTC)"

    Commenter, Someone Not Awful:

    "Just because he recently made some videos about the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China he is now suddenly a "apparently a conspiracy theorist" (which is unsourced) and some random PhD in pathology (which is sourced[1][2]), who did not write any scientific contributions (cough[3])? For the record pathologists study diseases and their causes, so you may consider him to be an expert on the subject. Someone Not Awful (talk) 05:01, 30 January 2020 (UTC)"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Log/2020_January_28#Christopher_Martenson

    What's next? YouTube, Twitter, FB? Will the "health authorities" come knocking at his door to "check his temperature"??  Gggrrrrrrrrr!

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:51pm

    #58

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    26

    Lesson From The Grey Man

    I would bet that the majority of regular members of this forum know what I mean by "The Grey Man".

    For those of you who don't and for the people who have just found Peak Prosperity, "The Grey Man" refers to a set of actions and lifestyle changes which you do, when you are in a situation or environment which may be dangerous.

    The best camouflage is not standing out.

    I lived for a while in in Los Angeles, in a area of town that was a bit rough and the sound of the occasional gunfire would sound at night, a place that a older white male like myself was an oddity. And yet I walked to the store and the local market, did laundry and interacted with all the diverse people in my neighborhood without fear. I did this while working in the movie industry and making $80K a year because I never flaunted my money. I never looked like prey.

    To be a "Grey Man" (or Grey Woman) is to adopt the clothing style and daily habits of those around you, while never appearing to be someone the many predators in that neighborhood would think was worth the trouble to attack and rob. It also means not showing fear. If you need to, do a search of the term. Many prepper and survival sites have good articles on the term and concept.

    Why do I bring this up in the current crisis?

    Many of you are just finding out that to take care of yourself and your family means preparing now, instead of when its too late. To stock up now on food, water, medical supplies and all the other stuff that may be in short supply if this situation gets as bad as we all hope it doesn't. And supplies for even a small family can be a large amount of stuff.

    Even if the over all situation doesn't get very bad regionally or nationally, local conditions at times may. A large cluster of infections, a over loaded hospital and inept city government can all cause a chaotic and possibly lawless environment to appear for days or even weeks until the national government can reestablish control.

    Those kindly neighbors, those parents who go to your church with you or whose kids go to school with yours, when faced with their loved ones starving or getting ill and dying, won't hesitate for a second in forcing you, who has prepared, to give up what you have.

    Just like putting the empty box from your new 72" flat screen TV out with the trash, tells thieves you have something to steal, unloading from your car several dozen grocery bags piled high with food and supplies, carrying in a few 5 gallon cans of gasoline, or buying a new generator tells your neighbors you have stuff they may need when SHTF.

    They might not think about it now, but someone will later when they open the last can of soup in their cabinet.

    Be a bit stealthy as you stock up and prepare. Go to the grocery store on the way home every night this coming week (and maybe next week) and buy just enough that you can get out and walk right in to your home. Maybe take an early nap and go out in the middle of the night, or early morning before work to pick up stuff.

    Hide what you can in your basement, under your bed or in closets, so your kitchen doesn't appear over full. Be careful who you allow in your house for now. Lie and tell people your wife or kid isn't feeling well (or yourself). Don't be unfriendly but by the same token, don't go being the one flaunting wealth.

    When you talk to casual neighbors to see if they are concerned about the Corona virus and if they are thinking of preparing, be discreet.  If they ask you, lie and tell them you aren't concerned and don't plan to. See who appears to get the danger and who doesn't. Those that do, might be ones to talk to privately later.

    I remember years ago, when nuclear war seemed a possibility, one guy said rather flippantly, "Well if it happens, I'll just come to your house." He might not have liked the reception he would have gotten, but too many people don't hesitate to take what they need anymore.

    If it does develop that people start getting ill, don't socialize. Definitely don't have a big barbecue on your back porch. Don't leave your house with your mask on, instead don it once you've driven away. If people come to your door, don't hide behind the door but talk to them in a guarded but friendly way.

    If you feel unease, just start coughing a bit. People will think you might be sick and leave you be. Dishonest yes, but then you are protecting yourself and your family.

    Sit down with your family and especially your children and bring them into the loop. Level with them about why you are preparing and why its important not to talk to their friends about it.

    Adopt the attitude of the Grey Man.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:10pm

    #59
    Thetallestmanonearth

    Thetallestmanonearth

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2013

    Posts: 330

    3

    a solution for carbon emission?

    If I were a sociopath of power and means and concerned about resource depletion, carbon, pollution or any of the other symptoms of over population and I had the ability to slow the spread of this virus I might be tempted to moderate my response slightly and go on a long secluded vacation.  The super bowl must go on!  I mean, it's a hell of a lot easier than trying to push through a carbon tax or global cap and trade. I am not accusing anyone of criminal negligence, but the thought has been nagging at me as I watch the government and media response.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:11pm

    #60

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    0

    Not Real Time Satellite Images

    The other place to dispose of mass bodies is the crematory,this would allow mass cremation. You could tell the by the smoke coming out smokestack . If ether one these are true we should able to check by gool earth,so why are we not doing it?

    Pat, you are aware that Google Earth are not real time images, don't you? Some of them are years old, especially street view. Maybe someone can give a link to a source that's more timely but I doubt short of commercial satellite companies, for big bucks, that we can get images of current Chinese crematorium emissions.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:14pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    7

    Thanks for the view from Mongolia

    Nickbert, let me say, thank you very much for the updates from the front edge of the hot zone. Stay safe, best of luck and hug your kids for all of us here.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:55pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    Nickbert

    Vajrakilaya is stomping around over there.  Mongolia is on my bucket list, hopefully I can get there someday before I kick it.  Kiss a two humped camel for me. 🐱. Good luck to you.  Sending you a big OM and a wind horse prayer.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 11:01pm

    #63
    Avatar

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 01 1970

    Posts: 61628

    2

    Thank you

    Really so informative post...Even if the over all situation doesn’t get very bad regionally or nationally, local conditions at times may. A large cluster of infections, a over loaded hospital and inept city government can all cause a chaotic and possibly lawless environment to appear for days or even weeks until the national government can reestablish control.

    Those kindly neighbors, those parents who go to your church with you or whose kids go to school with yours, when faced with their loved ones starving or getting ill and dying, won’t hesitate for a second in forcing you, who has prepared, to give up what you have. at present also do not available medicines of corona virus. Really so sad...

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 11:03pm

    guardia

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 26 2009

    Posts: 55

    2

    Re: Cruise Ship

    Yes, things do look that bad. It's real, it's scary, in an impressive way, like Fukushima-level impressive:

    Of all the passengers and crew, 273 who had close contact with the infected passenger took the virus test, Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Katsunobu Kato said at a news conference.

    Results for 31 of them came back, and 10 people in their 50s to 80s were found to be infected and are being sent to a hospital, he said, adding that none are showing severe symptoms.

    The government is requiring all passengers and crew, from 56 countries and regions, to stay on the ship for two more weeks from Wednesday, Kato said.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/05/national/science-health/quarantined-japanese-cruise-ship-infected-coronavirus/

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 11:16pm

    #65

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    3

    No Question Is Stupid

    Rajgoud, you are quite welcome and I'm glad my post helped you. Welcome to the Peak Prosperity community.

    A large portion of the people who post here, are like me with many years of thinking about just how screwed up our civilization has gotten and how those of us with family, friends and children need to change our own lives to adapt and prosper in a screwed up word. We come from a variety of backgrounds and are willing to share what we have learned.

    Sometimes it takes putting you and your first, hence the unfortunate necessity of adopting cover with the Grey Man skills to protect yourself.

    Yet as Bleep pointed out in an earlier post, for every group of "take yours from you" there are others who come together and help each other. Like this place.

    Take some time, watch the videos Chris has made, read the many informative comments and above all, ASK questions if you have them, no matter how silly or stupid they may seem to you. Most of us here, know from experience that "the only stupid question is the one you don't ask."

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 11:21pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    dtrammel

    You are smart, street smart.  Thank you for your information.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 12:33am

    #67
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    1

    THEY are GOING to LET IT RUN

    As referenced above, the plan now is to let the virus run in USA and elsewhere. I think the actual fatality rate has proven low (outside China) - but the concern is that the hospital system may get overwhelmed.

    -Andy

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 12:39am

    #68
    Truth9834

    Truth9834

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 30

    2

    Truth9834 said:

    Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0) and an experimental antiviral medication might help fight the new coronavirus - https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/4/21122327/coronavirus-experimental-medication-treatment-wuhan-china-gilead-hiv

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:33am

    #69
    Truth9834

    Truth9834

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 30

    5

    Truth9834 said:

    "Wang said he had been trying to work out how he became infected after visiting fever clinics and temporary isolation wards in Wuhan. “At that time we were highly vigilant and wore N95 masks,” he said. “But then I suddenly realized that we didn’t wear protective glasses.” He said that after he returned to Beijing, his left eye developed conjunctivitis and two to three hours later he started to come down with a fever and catarrh. He said he initially thought he had the flu because he had not seen any Wuhan patients with conjunctivitis. But anti-flu treatments proved ineffective and he continued to suffer intermittent fevers. He finally took the test for 2019-nCoV, the World Health Organisation’s name for the Wuhan virus, and the result was positive. Wang said the most likely explanation was that the virus had entered his body through his eyes."

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3047394/chinese-expert-who-came-down-wuhan-coronavirus-after-saying-it-was

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:46am

    #70
    quixtar

    quixtar

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 6

    4

    quixtar said:

    Why is nobody considerung to use angiotensin II receptor inhibitors (i.e. Losartan) for severe cases of 2019-nCoV infection? It would very likely improve the outcomes and reduce mortality substantially.

    Antiviral therapy isn't really solving the problem.

     

     

     

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:48am

    #71
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    3

    AI picks baricitinib as potential drug

    BenevolentAI's knowledge graph is a large repository of structured medical information, including numerous connections extracted from scientific literature by machine learning.

    Together with customisations bespoke to 2019-nCoV, we used BenevolentAI to search for approved drugs that could help, focusing on those that might block the viral infection process. We identified baricitinib, which is predicted to reduce the ability of the virus to infect lung cells.

    Figure thumbnail gr1

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930304-4

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 3:31am

    #72
    Lnorris

    Lnorris

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    Joined: Mar 28 2011

    Posts: 86

    8

    Our hospital is going with

    “the flu is worse meme.” Mandatory online education which had contradictory isolation protocols are not re-assuring. Bottom line is the medical establishment don’t know what they are treating. Also the testing for it takes 5 days. If a person walks into an ED with symptoms and recent travel history consistent with the pattern of transmission then the ED doc calls the dept of health, they in turn call the CDC. The CDC then determines if a test is warranted. The test is not standard for any respiratory panel that might ordinarily be run. In the mean time they’ve walked into an ED and potentially exposed staff and patients in their immediate surroundings prior to intake and assessment. Fun times folks.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:01am

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 267

    1

    Best time to prepare

    Everyone should own a gun. Just as the best time to put a stop-loss on one's stock portfolio is long before a reversal, and the best time to fill in a deep pantry is during flush times long before people panic, so buying and learning to use a gun is best done before one feels a growing sense of foreboding or danger.

    The second best time for all of that is today.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:10am

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 267

    1

    Missing the point

    Your advice misses the point! Wuflu transmits asymptomatically. That means you can get it on the plane from people near you who DO NOT appear ill.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:23am

    #75
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5365

    19

    Re: Alert! Wikipedia Hit Job on Chris!

    Here’s the rationale (e.g., “not notable”, “conspiracy theorist”) for the deletion, started on Jan. 28th.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Christopher_Martenson

    This is a hit job, executed quickly and with precision. Chris must have hit a nerve.  I’m sick and furious!

    Commenter on the Wikipedia deletion page, “Someone Not Awful”:

    “Wow, I have never seen an AFD closed so fast. It only took a week. In the past you had to first place a Proposed Deletion tag and after that you could start an AFD which took weeks or even months to be considered. This makes me reconsidering contributing to this project any longer. Someone Not Awful (talk) 23:19, 4 February 2020 (UTC)”

    Commenter, Someone Not Awful:

    “Just because he recently made some videos about the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China he is now suddenly a “apparently a conspiracy theorist” (which is unsourced) and some random PhD in pathology (which is sourced[1][2]), who did not write any scientific contributions (cough[3])? For the record pathologists study diseases and their causes, so you may consider him to be an expert on the subject. Someone Not Awful (talk) 05:01, 30 January 2020 (UTC)”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Log/2020_January_28#Christopher_Martenson

    What’s next? YouTube, Twitter, FB? Will the “health authorities” come knocking at his door to “check his temperature”??  Gggrrrrrrrrr!

    Wikipedia is fully a captured, non-democratic experiment, long since departed from its original noble intent.  Sad, was quite useful for a time.

    I lost my shreds of respect for Wiki back during the Skripal affair, and Craig Murray did a beautiful and exquisite accounting of Wiki's strong-arm tactics to suppress actual news and promote the talking points of Theresa May's cabinet.

    Essentially, a "super editor" working under the pen name of "Philip Cross" worked seemingly tirelessly to promote one set of narratives and debase their alternatives:

    UPDATE “Philip Cross” has not had one single day off from editing Wikipedia in almost five years. “He” has edited every single day from 29 August 2013 to 14 May 2018. Including five Christmas Days. That’s 1,721 consecutive days of editing.

    133,612 edits to Wikpedia have been made in the name of “Philip Cross” over 14 years. That’s over 30 edits per day, seven days a week. And I do not use that figuratively: Wikipedia edits are timed, and if you plot them, the timecard for “Philip Cross’s” Wikipedia activity is astonishing is astonishing if it is one individual.

    The operation runs like clockwork, seven days a week, every waking hour, without significant variation. If Philip Cross genuinely is an individual, there is no denying he is morbidly obsessed.

    Why does this – to take the official explanation – sad obsessive no friends nutter, matter?

    Because the purpose of the “Philip Cross” operation is systematically to attack and undermine the reputations of those who are prominent in challenging the dominant corporate and state media narrative. particularly in foreign affairs. “Philip Cross” also systematically seeks to burnish the reputations of mainstream media journalists and other figures who are particularly prominent in pushing neo-con propaganda and in promoting the interests of Israel.

    This matters because, an ordinary reader who comes across an article questioning (say) the official narrative on the Skripals, is very likely to turn to Wikipedia to get information on the author of the article.

    Simply put, the purpose of the “Philip Cross” operation is to make certain that if that reader looks up an anti-war person such as John Pilger, they will conclude they are thoroughly unreliable and untrustworthy, whereas if they look up a right wing MSM journalist, they will conclude they are a paragon of virtue and entirely to be trusted.

    So, all I can say is that my videos seemed to have reached high enough to cause some official alarm.

    Of course this is disappointing.  I've put out tons of videos and written materials loaded with facts.  Plenty of honest ammunition for anyone seeking to discredit my message through the front door.

    I guess that was viewed as not worthy of the effort (or maybe because there's nothing there to refute?) and so the hatchet approach was taken.

    As I said, Wiki is now just another MSM outlet parading as something different, pretending to be 'the voice of the people.'  As with all things like this, Wiki is sealing its own fate.

    Once you lose trust, it's devilishly hard to get it back.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:38am

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

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    3

    Malice aforethought?

    I'm more inclined to think the authorities fear a mass panic in the face of taking Black Swan pre-emptive actions. And that such a fear is backstopped by the political fallout if, for whatever reason, this (or any potential outbreak) does not become a Black Swan event.

    In other words, timidity and reputational fear overwhelm prudence.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:13am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5365

    5

    Re: Malice

    In other words, timidity and reputational fear overwhelm prudence.

    I like how you think.

    That's the number one concern I have; a pandemic operates at its own speed, and it's light years faster than bureaucrats.

    So they default into a "circle the wagons" approach that's all about protecting their own egos and small positions of power, which leaves them with no energy to process new information and undertake bold actions.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:29am

    #78
    quixtar

    quixtar

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 6

    0

    quixtar said:

    and here is some more information about the idea to use ACE2 receptor inhibitors:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/nm1267

     

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:34am

    #79
    karenf

    karenf

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    Joined: Oct 02 2010

    Posts: 62

    16

    Who is the crazy one?

    Stock markets jump on pandemic possibilities (we're rich!).  Chris gets banned from Wikipedia of all places  Wikipedia!?!.  (I am not donating  another dime to them!) But I still go to work, people bring donuts into the break room.  It is a crazy warm winter in DC.  (70 degrees yesterday!).  Just act normal and talk about the super bowl commercials and happy retirement plans. Even Real Vision is interviewing people about AI tech that will take our thoughts and produce robots that do surgery better than a doctor (or some such thing) (stock market to the moon, Alice!)    I am beginning to think I truly am the crazy one. (just like my family thinks!)

    Karen

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:34am

    #80
    kristen braun

    kristen braun

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    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 13

    4

    Reliable News?

    I am not sure how reliable this news story is, but would be interested in people's thoughts?

    It concerns Tencent accidentally posting "real" (as opposed to "official") China infected/suspected/death numbers.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:40am

    Rob Laporte

    Rob Laporte

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 04 2008

    Posts: 8

    3

    Again, Inoculating against MSM Criticisms of PP

    My post the other day was intended to help prevent grounds for the likes of the Wikipedia deletion, though probably it would have happened regardless. I copy my post below. I advise refuting in advance the best critiques one can launch against key messages in PP's video updates.

    Inoculating against MSM Criticisms of PP

    Thank you Chris and Adam for such excellent information on this virus.

    I worry about two general and perhaps widely convincing criticisms of the reporting here.

    1. If a lot more infections are not reported because of lack of testing or mild symptoms, and if deaths are more likely to be reported (stands to reason), then then the CFR and serious complication rate would actually be much lower. Lack of foregrounding this reasoning. and refuting it if there is a good refutation, could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.
    2. The lack of evidence of rapidly spreading illnesses outside of China would seem among the most important news to be reported here. Though Chris’s videos have the touched on this, the lack of foregrounding it could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.

    The service to our community by PP’s reporting on this virus is incredibly valuable, and I would hate to see it undermined by the criticisms like the above.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:00am

    #82

    msnrochny

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 04 2010

    Posts: 49

    8

    Did China's Tencent Accidentally Leak The True Terrifying Coronavirus Statistics? From Zero Hedge.

    If accurate, China knows there are at least 154,000 infected, and 25,000 deaths.  The death rate would be at least 16%.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-chinas-tencent-accidentally-leak-true-terrifying-coronavirus-statistics

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:07am

    bman

    bman

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    Joined: Jan 17 2011

    Posts: 6

    3

    Re: Reliable News?

    I saw that too and thought it was very suspicious.  If all those videos purporting to come out of Wuhan are genuine, those numbers would make a lot more sense than the official stats.  The 150,000 infections isn't all that scary, because this is obviously going to get to that level in the near future anyway.  What's terrifying is the implied CFR if those numbers are right.  We'd be back to debating how the CFR could be so much higher inside China vs. outside.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:08am

    #84
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    1

    China: Baby tests positive for nCoV 30 hours after birth

    Baby tests positive for China virus just 30 hours after birth

    "CCTV quoted experts as saying it may be a case of "vertical transmission", referring to infections passed from mother to child during pregnancy, childbirth or immediately after. The mother had tested positive for the virus before she gave birth."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/baby-tests-positive-for-china-virus-just-30-hours-after-birth/ar-BBZFMSb?ocid=spartanntp

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:23am

    #85

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 826

    3

    Naming the Virus. I submit “CARS”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51371770

    Since the virus needs a name ...I submit Chinese Acute Respiratory Syndrome....CARS

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:32am

    RebelYell

    RebelYell

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 21 2019

    Posts: 105

    2

    case rate: Wuhan vs everywhere else

    I have seen various posts querying the apparent difference in case fatality rates between Wuhan and other cities / countries.  And if the latest zerohedge story re tencent leaking the real numbers is to be believed, then the difference is even larger.

    The reason for this is likely to be the length of time it takes people to die.  13 days ago on January 23rd, there were 197 cases in China outside Hubei province, 2 cases in Hong Kong, 1 case in Japan, 3 in Thailand, 1 in S Korea, 1 in Singapore and 2 in Vietnam.  We do not have statistics from 19 days ago, but it was probably something like <100 cases in China outside Hubei (quite possibly significantly less than this) and 0 outside China.  Consequently it is not particularly surprising that we, as yet, have very few casualties (reported numbers 11 and 2) in those places.

    In fact both of those numbers *could be* indicative of a higher fatality rate than the numbers from China, except that the data is too unclear to know for sure.

    My best guess is still in the 10% range, probably slightly lower for patients with access to treatment and rather higher for those without.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:33am

    #87
    Galene77

    Galene77

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 24

    8

    The ‘official’ narrative on 2019-nCoV rolls out.

    https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2020/02/03/who-working-with-google-to-combat-virus-misinformation
    Bottom line? WHO (a political body) and Google will shape what search engine results display.
    Not the line: WHO is also battling misinformation, working with Google to ensure that people get facts from the U.N. health agency first when they search for information about the virus.
    This is why YouTube, Twitter, Facebook will all algorithmically shape searches away from ‘alt’ media sources. The ones the masses use for primary info.
    So the ‘this is just another harmless winter flu meme’ dominates.
    Anyone who refutes the NHS/CDC/Govt line, just a conspiratorial crazy, hence WiKi the slur/attack on Dr. Martenson.
    Event 201 outlined the control of the mass media narrative. So in that sense this 2019-nCoV timeline is following the plan.

    To quote from Frank Herbert’s DUNE
    “They had one weapon left and both knew it: treachery…”
    Finally, I’m a newbie to these boards. So a BIG thanks you to Chris & Adam of PP for all they do. I was fortunate to read JHKs the Long Emergency back in 2006, which was how I then found this site soon after.
    Will update with anything else I think adds smartly to the conversation for the PP community.

    [Galene77 out]

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:59am

    Galene77

    Galene77

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 24

    0

    Case rates...

    Anything from China, at best its CPC approved so of what true value?

    The HK epidemiologist  (lancet paper) estimated that R0 was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) with an epidemic doubling time of 6·4 days.

    That's as Chris's useful vid highlighted a 1-3 infection rate.

    My 'best' guess is the seriously compromised if lucky get quickly, accurately diagnosed and if lucky a mix of IV anti-viral meds that negate the novel 'evolutionary' aspects of 2019-nCoV.

    In Whuan/China generally how likely is this for patients in the thousands?

    Though lets say you're are a compromised 50s victim in a ICU bed. Would it not be realistic to assume you may need 2-3 weeks for a suitable outcome one way or the other? Recovery v Death

    Until this virus seriously takes hold of a 1st world democractic zone think EU/UK, Australia or the USA - on 'true' scale numbers side it will remain best guess work.

    Again, we assume 1st world govt bodies will be fully honest as the pandemic roles out?

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:00am

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 462

    6

    Facts please

    Hi Andy,

    This amounts to fear mongering. If you are going to assert such things please back them up / support the assertion with something credible. If you can’t do that then you are wasting our time and detracting from this site’s credibility as a source of believable information.

    Thank you,

    Jan

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:19am

    #90
    Tim Puffer

    Tim Puffer

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 24 2019

    Posts: 11

    2

    Mother Jones article

    Not sure I heard Chris say even 1 time that he was a pandemic expert...

    A quote from the article regarding Chris M. -

    "One popular series on the virus is produced by a personal finance guru with a history of pushing economic theories about peak oil and other resource crunches, but who has recently rebranded as a pandemic expert as news coverage of the virus has exploded."

    YouTube Creators Cash In on Coronavirus Fears

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:20am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 78

    6

    lack of concern

    Hi George, I've had the same experience speaking with successful professionals who have no concern regarding nCOV right now. I remember clearly previous small outbreaks (Zika, West Nile) where the media's job was to hype it as much as possible. IMO they do this with storm reporting as well or any bit of news that may help to start a war. I find it fascinating that the media role seems to be quite the opposite at the moment.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:40am

    gobedavy

    gobedavy

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 4

    0

    gobedavy said:

    The page for that link has apparently been taken down.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:40am

    #93

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    3

    In Quarantined Wuhan, Hospital Beds For Coronavirus Patients Are Scarce

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/05/802896668/in-quarantined-wuhan-hospital-beds-for-coronavirus-patients-are-scarce

    Many such cases are being sent to makeshift isolation wards in requisitioned hotels or clinics to keep them apart from family members while they wait to be screened. Even those who test positive can wait days more for a hospital bed, increasing the risk of infection for others.

    ========================================
    U.S. Readies for Coronavirus Pandemic Some Experts Now See as Likely
    Total containment isn’t in the cards, said Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “Given the nature of this virus and how it’s spreading, that would be impossible. Our goal is to slow this thing down.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/coronavirus-update-governments-prepare-for-pandemic

    =======================================

    Production halts at China factories lead to worldwide shortages in components as coronavirus outbreak spreads

    General Motors, Volkswagen and Toyota Motor are among companies that have closed China plants at least through February 9, taking heed from several provinces that advised companies not to resume operations any sooner than an extended holiday break.

    Tesla is among companies saying they’re monitoring potential supply-chain interruptions for cars built outside China as well.

    The outbreak may reduce vehicle output by more than 1.7 million cars because of plant closings, according to IHS Markit.

    https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3049118/coronavirus-outbreak-adds-salt-wounded-global-car-industry

    ===========================================

    EU and US carmakers warn ‘weeks away’ from China parts shortage
    https://www.ft.com/content/48bae4c0-472e-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

    ==================================
    Coronavirus-linked labor shortages threaten iPhone production: sources
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/Coronavirus-linked-labor-shortages-threaten-iPhone-production-sources

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:46am

    #94
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 235

    1

    WHO press conference

    is broadcasting live

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nti-GbaAm6U

    They state any drop in CFR outside of China is due to adequate care for severely ill patients (ICU etc..). No surprise I suppose.  They praised China's efforts to build the new hospitals and are encouraging travel restrictions in the epicenter (Wuhan) and remain skeptical of global travel restrictions.  They are unable to say if China is hiding data and will figure that out in the "post" analysis afterwards. "sigh".

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:49am

    #95
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 78

    3

    Worse than the flu?

    I spoke with an ER doctor yesterday in a casual setting. He says he is way more concerned about influenza virus than nCOV. The reasoning is that he sees the flu often enough, unlike nCOV. In a relatively busy setting, he says, the human mind is geared to be concerned about what is actually in front of you, not so much a hypothetical future scenario.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:58am

    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    0

    Google earth not real time

    Google earth is not a real time display of satellite information.  There are a few services you can subscribe to to get more immediate satellite information, and many news services subscribe to them.  Of course, those are the same services saying all is well, while governments are putting in place quarantines.

    You can be sure governments know more about what is going on in China then is being told to the public.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:00am

    Rector

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2010

    Posts: 381

    1

    Lethal Force

    Please keep in mind that when you use an improvised weapon (like insecticide) the law will often consider that "lethal force" in a similar manner as if you had used a weapon.  Stick to "non-lethal" options like pepper spray to stay out of trouble.

    Rector

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:03am

    #98

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    4

    Screening Travelers for Coronavirus is Ineffective, UCLA Study Says

    'Worst nightmare': Product shortages in store as retailers brace for coronavirus impact
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/worst-nightmare-product-shortages-in-store-as-retailers-brace-for-coronavirus-impact-20200205-p53xxc.html

    =======================================
    Screening Travelers for Coronavirus is Ineffective, UCLA Study Says
    Only two-thirds of infected travelers will be detected by departure screening in the best-case scenario, the study found, with the worst-case scenario reporting only 1 in 10 cases being detected. The most consistent factor of successful detection is fever screening, but because many travelers are still within the disease’s maximum incubation phase of two weeks, they are not likely to exhibit the symptom while moving through airports or other transit centers.

    https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/health-wellness/screening-travelers-for-coronavirus-is-ineffective-ucla-study-says/2304006/

    ====================================
    'The only hope': Scientists in the race against time to develop coronavirus vaccine
    “We don’t know much about this coronavirus, says Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, director of the Complex Systems Research Group at Sydney University.

    “The data we’re getting at the moment is patchy... and I was surprised to see how fast it spread,” he told Yahoo News Australia on Thursday.

    Along with the Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Prof Prokopenko has previously used anonymised census data to model how fast an influenza pandemic could spread in Australian cities.

    “Containing it is unlikely to be effective as we originally hoped,” he said of coronavirus.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/scientists-and-the-race-for-a-coronavirus-vaccine-085720484.html

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:07am

    #99
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    4

    Factor to consider

    According to the WHO the prevalence of smoking in the following countries.

    http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/tobacco/use/atlas.html

    China: 47.6 %
    Canada: 17.7 %
    USA: 19.5 %

    For a virus that effects the lungs, the incidence of smoking will have some effect in how many people will develop more severe symptoms.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:18am

    vshelford

    vshelford

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 13 2014

    Posts: 165

    3

    Air pollution also a possible factor?

    Wuhan is an industrial city with extremely high air pollution,  so it's possible this is influencing the higher numbers there?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:35am

    Patrick Slater

    Patrick Slater

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 2

    3

    Losartan?

    I'm taking that for high blood pressure.  I'm new to the site and this is my first post.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:53am

    cmquigley89

    cmquigley89

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 2

    5

    Tencent data drop

    Hello to all,

    I may have missed someone else posting this link. This data looks closer to what HK and the UK were citing all along. Would also explain crematoriums running 24/7 and the lack of interest in help at ground zero. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:26am

    Andy_S

    Andy_S

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    0

    YES _ THEY will LET THE VIRUS RUN - Proof Below

    I can see why they make this decision. No way can this be contained - and outside China the death rate is very low. So why shut down the whole economy over it? 

    How do I know that USA and others will let the virus run? I keep an eye on CNBC a bit to see how the mainstream is talking about it. Below are 2 examples-

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/johns-hopkins-dr-amesh-adalja-says-new-coronavirus-is-here-to-stay.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wq33oZdQ-R4

    God bless,

    Andy

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:40am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1047

    4

    Facts Please

    and outside China the death rate is very low.

    You say this over and over as though you are desperate for everyone to believe you.  Perhaps you are desperately wanting it to be true, we all do. It is not a “proven” fact as you have stated.  Time will tell and so far the Pandemic is in its infancy and we will not KNOW if the death rate is low for months, maybe years.

    Repeating something over and over because you want it to be true does not make it so.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:45am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    Buried Among The Hatchet Job, Some Truth

    Hewlett noted that while his titles could lean towards alarmism, the content of his videos, keyed to spiking interest, appeared to be reasonable. “The titles aren’t indicative of what’s in the videos. But he doesn’t seem to spread misinformation. People are just hungry for information in general. He’s just trying to assimilate media reports,” Hewlett said.

    Then of course, if you lump one truthful site among all the trash, no one notices do they?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:49am

    Andy_S

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    0

    WE have NO DEATHS OUTSIDE of CHINESE PEOPLE

    In fact, outside China there are very few "serious" cases. And we know the ACE-2 Receptor cells make Asian males far more prone to this virus.

    All of this says to me this is a low-fatality disease outside China.

    -Andy

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:53am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 65

    0

    losartan

    The study here:

    https://genomed.com/pdf/AT1RSARS.pdf

    ...suggests that people taking this class of drug will have less-pleasant lung chemistry for a SARS-type coronavirus and may slow down any infection when contracted.

    While I'm no longer licensed in the medical field, it looks like you may have an advantage if you are already taking these types of blood pressure medications, but you should bring a copy of that study to your doctor and have them explain it to you.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:56am

    kunga

    kunga

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    Posts: 368

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    MrCurious

    Thank you for your contributions.  Dr's tunnel vision, thus more lag time.  I take Ocillococcinum, homeopathic for flu.  It's made from duck so covers any regular flu.  If I take it and symptoms do not improve, I would strongly encourage my ER doc to consider Corona infection.  I am getting better at battling doctors.  Stubborn old biddy.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:02am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    5

    My Reply To the Mother Jones Article in their comments

    "Hewlett noted that while his titles could lean towards alarmism, the content of his videos, keyed to spiking interest, appeared to be reasonable. “The titles aren’t indicative of what’s in the videos. But he doesn’t seem to spread misinformation. People are just hungry for information in general. He’s just trying to assimilate media reports,” Hewlett said."

    As someone who has been a member of Chris and Adam's site for several years, I'm glad at least a little truth came out in this article. Most of it though is a veiled implication that they are among the ones spreading lies and misinformation.

    Yes, they have focused on finance information over the years, with a bent towards the trends I believe even Mother Jones has recognized over the years, over mining of needed resources, economic inequality and climate change. Both of them have made changes in their lifestyles themselves to reflect their advice. That is why many of us have paid memberships there and continue them.

    Yes the one article on "Pandemic Preparation" is behind the paywall, and yet every video since then isn't. And the comments sections themselves are full of helpful information from both sides of the issues and are free for any to view and to comment on.

    If wanting to be paid for your long hard work is an indication of "an excuse for grifters and other YouTube creators to chase clicks at the risk of spreading panic or false information", may I point out this article ended with a large ad for donating to Mother Jones.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:04am

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 235

    3

    availability of testing supplies

    Andy

    One point from today's WHO conference, which I believe is valid, is that under reporting may occur due to overwhelmed lab facilities. Also, since negative results are not being reported we don't really know how many people in China have tested negative but still use up a "spot" for testing. Here in the US CDC has been doing the testing, one location only for the entire US.   And the protocol for testing a contagion this dangerous likely takes longer to avoid contamination issues.

    CFR is RETROSPECTIVE not always predictive.  This virus mutates and data becomes more available and things change. We can only know the data we have and what happened in the past.  Sadly people want certainty on this issue and while we have some idea, as others have said, all of the data isn't in yet.

    Fortunately CDC has developed a "rapid test" that they got approved on a fast track basis. Soon it seems labs can test on sight without sending samples out, so we should see more data from the US as this gets utilized.  The level of screening is quite low right now so we don't know how many milder cases there may be.

    https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-fast-tracked-a-coronavirus-test/

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:07am

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    0

    Stock market bumping up against all time highs

    All the while China slowly shuts down more and more of its productive capacity.

    International: 194 cases, 1 death. Not so alarming at this point.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:11am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    3

    death count

    Andy - I think it’s hard to get accurate death count.  there have been numerous reports china is undercounting.  many factors but one is because many people die and we’re never tested.  same will happen in us and western countries.  i think there are more than 11 US cases - those are just the obvious ones with direct Wuhan connection.  if u walk into hospital today with pneumonia and die it does not count on total and they will not test you unless you have a wuhan connection.

    basically - it could be death rate much higher and a moderate rate even for western people.

     

    hospital report in china:

     

    even wsj reporting deaths may not being counted

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/relatives-wonder-whether-pneumonia-deaths-were-tied-to-coronavirus-11579915630

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:21am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

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    Western nations not reporting data?

    I can’t verify this report but I would not be surprised.  My question is has US confirmed more than 11 cases and not telling us or is there more than 11 and they actually don’t know about these because tracing back failed or testing not completed?

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-05-who-secretary-general-western-nations-are-withholding-coronavirus-outbreak-data.html

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:22am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    1

    Discussion on Chinese Journalism

    Its behind the NYT's paywall so you might need to use a incognito browser window, buts a good look at Chinese journalism and the way some of the citizen-journalists are getting around censorship.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/opinion/coronavirus-china-news-journalism.html

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:24am

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    1

    Tencent - actual count leaked?

    interesting theory on actual count:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ccn.com/alleged-tencent-leak-suggests-coronavirus-death-toll-spiraling-to-25000/

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:27am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Joined: Feb 04 2020

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    0

    wyrldtraveler said:

    Baking soda (sodium bicarbonate) is generally non-toxic and alkalinic when  in solution in water.  Don't know what pH is required to disable the 'corona'.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:33am

    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    0

    Question to functional medicine docs

    In Chinese medicine the skin, large intestine and lungs are intimately related, all being organs of absorption and excretion.  I am wondering if a diarrhea develops with the Corona infection, would that help drain fluids from the inflamed lung area? So supportive care to hydrate/electrolytes the body and not suppress the diarrhea?  I trust the body's wisdom.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:39am

    Vilbas

    Vilbas

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    Joined: Aug 14 2014

    Posts: 32

    8

    Re: Death #s

    Deaths are never captured accurately in these situations. The Spanish Flu estimate ranges between 50 to 100 million. The key point being that if this thing truly takes off like most of us expect, the true number will never be known but it will be quite significant.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:43am

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 616

    8

    I don't know who Andy is, but..

    Since he is desperately clinging to any and all stories which support the "everything is fine" narrative, I suspect a shiv of the mainstream media, here to do their best to contain any untoward "panic" or discredit PP somehow. On the other hand, there is tons of anecdotal evidence - including China's overly heavy-handed and draconian response, videos and testimonies being leaked out of China at great personal risk, and legitimate doubts as to the trustworthiness of Chinese official data in the first place - which would at least warrant reasonable doubt about the narrative of "everything is fine," but I don't see any evidence that he takes any of that into account.

     

    Might not be worth anyone's time to actually try to persuade someone who's narrative is firmly entrenched.

     

    I'll ask again, though; if this is "no worse than the flu" then why is China responding so dramatically? If it's only killing Chinese, will that always be the case? Be mindful that as far as we are aware, no Chinese died of this in its first four to six weeks of starting. We're not that far along yet.

    Yet.

    We may be having a whole different conversation in a month. I hope not, but we might be.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:52am

    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    2

    I NEVER SAID it is "NO WORSE THAN FLU" - Let Me Be Clear

    What I have noted all along is that the fatality rate OUTSIDE CHINA has been low - and continues to be low. But certainly it is worse than the Flu!!

    Also I have noted that Asian males have 4 or 5 TIMES the ACE-2 Receptor cells - meaning they are far more prone to this virus. All of this has been referenced by Chris himself.

    God bless,

    -Andy

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:16am

    bman

    bman

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    Joined: Jan 17 2011

    Posts: 6

    4

    Andy

    This strikes me as a bit unfair.  Andy has been accused of fear mongering and being an MSM plant to contain panic all in the comments of this one video.  He's simply pointed out that there are no deaths among non-Chinese people so far, which is true.  It is the reason we have been discussing things like CFR with proper care vs. without proper care, and susceptibility associated with ACE-II.  If you believe, as I do, that the CFR in China is worse than they're admitting too, this is a bit of a mystery.  It's not easily explained, and it's not totally unreasonable to think that this could sweep across the Western world with a much lower fatality rate than has manifested in China.  I agree it's way too early for comfort, and there are lots of reasons to think this could crush the West, but I've been coming to this site for 10 years because people here have always been willing to consider and discuss ideas with which they disagree in a civil manner.  I hope that's not going to change now.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:20am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 78

    0

    Kunga diarrhea question

    Kunga, I've heard there is a low incidence of diarrhea based on a recent Lancet article that studied 100 patients. Sorry, I don't have the link, but look up 'medcram corona update #10 on youtube. This guy is really good, speaks crystal clearly, doesn't include annoying background music in his videos, and is informative just like Chris's videos

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:24am

    Ejh237

    Ejh237

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 16 2011

    Posts: 33

    3

    Or something like that

    Seems to have arrived with "something" to say, with that Join to Post ratio. 🙂

    Anyway...  We've pulled all of our planned 2020 purchases forward, and are getting near done "ordering most of Amazon"... before the China supply chain to dries up.

    Best to you all!

    -eric & cindy

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:52am

    km64

    km64

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    1

    Beware studies based on incomplete information

    Anyone who has caught the flu or a cold from someone else knows that the other person doesn't have to look sick to actually be sick.

    So, maybe a little good news among the fear mongering.

    According to the new report in Science, the businesswoman’s 2019-nCoV infection symptoms went unrecognized because they were mild, masked by over-the-counter medications, and—most notably—the authors of the NEJM article didn’t speak with her before the article was published.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/symptomless-spread-of-new-coronavirus-questioned-as-outbreak-mushrooms/

    The Chinese businesswoman who spread the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) to four colleagues in Germany while reportedly experiencing no symptoms of the infection actually did have symptoms, according to a news report in Science.

    The woman’s case, published January 30 in The New England Journal of Medicine, was considered the most clearly documented evidence that the novel viral infection could spread silently from asymptomatic people. Public health experts have been particularly anxious about such transmission because it could potentially ease disease spread and negate outbreak control efforts, including screening travelers for symptoms, such as fever.

    “The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak,” the authors of the NEJM article concluded.

    But that conclusion now appears to be based on false information. And, while the new information on these specific cases doesn’t rule out the possibility that asymptomatic spread has occurred or is occurring in other cases, it could help ratchet down fears that asymptomatic spread is driving the now mushrooming outbreak.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:52am

    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

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    0

    Medcram

    Thanks, MrCurious, I like their stuff, I will check it out.

    Wish we had the net for reference education back in the day.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:57am

    km64

    km64

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    1

    km64 said:

    Here's a link to medcrams #10 video

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:59am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

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    Video of new 1,000-bed Wuhan "hospital" resembles a prison

    Video shows interior of new Wuhan 'hospital' resembles prison

    video:  https://twitter.com/HimalayaGlobal/status/1224175980819841024

    article w/video embedded: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3870468

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 12:00pm

    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1

    Re : Facts Please

    What do we know ?

    First clue was a posting from a collaboration between a retired professional scientist with 30 years of experience in genomic sequencing and analysis who helped design several ubiquitous bioinformatic software tools, and a former NSA counterterrorism analyst.

    Quote :
    "Early research found that 2019-nCoV targets the ACE2 receptor, which is found in Asians at roughly five-times the rate of other global populations, indicating that the Wuhan Strain 2019-nCoV was likely developed as part of a gain-of-function defensive project possibly linked to immunotherapy or vaccinations – never meant to leave the lab, but meant to serve as a Red Team to fight back against, not as an offensive weapon since the virus is likely wired to be much more virulent among Asian populations."

    Logistical and Technical Exploration into the Origins of the Wuhan Strain of Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    We than learned more about the virus using the ACE2 receptor in the AT2 long cells of humans.
    This is now studied everywhere on the planet.

    Second clue was given by a study.
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

    Quotes:
    "We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells)."

    "Of note, the 2 male donors have a higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than all other 6 female donors (1.66% vs. 0.41% of all cells, P value=0.07, Mann Whitney Test). In addition, the distribution of ACE2 is also more widespread in male donors than females: at least 5 different types of cells in male lung express this receptor, while only 2~4 types of cells in female lung express the receptor. This result is highly consistent with the epidemic investigation showing that most of the confirmed 2019-nCov infected patients were men (30 vs. 11, by Jan 2, 2020)."

    The third clue was a study giving further data.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5642354_The_geographic_distribution_of_the_ACE_II_genotype_A_novel_finding/link/0046353a80d86666d6000000/download

     

    Not only we from PP noticed these things. Russia Today gives some points.
    https://russia-insider.com/en/asians-far-more-susceptible-corona-virus-other-races-more-likely-die-just-sars-report/ri28241

    There is an older study about the flu.

    https://academicjournals.org/journal/AJB/article-full-text-pdf/135907332528

    Quote:
    The ethnic differences are not just a concept. These differences can be identified quantitatively in a number of epidemiologic parameters. here is no doubt that the identification of different susceptibilities among various ethnic groups to a specific virus means that the viral virulence is relatively low and thus not a high risk to human beings.

    So are we 100% sure that we are safe outside Asia ? Will Japan be the worst kid in the class ? We will see, but so far i have not seen evidence on the contrary.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 12:00pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    0

    Credit card debt

    I too have brought some purchases forward.  Hate like heck to build up card balance.  It is good the U$ dollar is remaining strong.  Maybe retailers can bid for the last remaining stocks of goods.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 12:09pm

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    1

    Functional Medicine

    In reply to Kunga, I also trust the body's wisdom, but when diarrhea causes dehydration, then sometimes it makes sense to reduce it (as opposed to when diarrhea comes from a regular virus of food poisoning, under regular circumstances, when you would usually let that run its course).
    Also controlling fever is a similar issue - mostly you want to allow fever, but if the person is becoming dehydrated then you could be losing the battle.

    Finally, so many people in the world are suffering from environmental toxicity and not in optimal health given the problem food we consume, too much sitting, not enough sleep, etc. In that case, what is the body's wisdom, and what is the immune system's attempt to "help" that goes too far?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 12:27pm

    ktruddymd

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 12 2010

    Posts: 19

    1

    nC0V receptor

    Dr. Gregory Poland of Mayo Clinic gave a Grand Rounds on 2019 nCoV  indicating that the receptor target for 2019 nCoV is not the ACE receptor associated with SARS corona virus.

    Please comment.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 12:28pm

    Nate

    Nate

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 05 2009

    Posts: 468

    10

    coworker

    Today I contacted a Chinese individual that I have worked with for several years.  I really like and trust this guy.  Straight shooter, no nonsense.  And bright.  Turns out he is originally from Wuhan and still has family members there.  Currently his brother is a medical doctor in Wuhan.  I asked a bunch of questions:

    What's the mood like in Wuhan?  No panic, people are calm.

    Is your brother still working as a medical professional at this time?  Yes, and he hates gowning up and wearing a face shield every day.

    What happens if you break the curfew?  The city is heavily monitored by drones and they will almost immediately instruct you to return home.

    How do you get your food?  We still have access to food, but your temperature is checked before you are allowed to purchase.

    So what happens if the food runs out?  The military will step in and provide.

    Do you trust the numbers of deaths coming out of China?  There is no way of determining that from an individuals standpoint.

    Will it be contained?  Yes - in a command economy any measure will be taken to contain this.

    I saw no concern or panic in the individual.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 12:53pm

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1

    Re : nC0V receptor

    I beg to differ.

    Goto 10:40 - 46 and hear how this novel virus uses the spike protein on ACE2

    Goto 13:39 and look what is on the screen

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 1:01pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    0

    Dr. Ashe, Good info.

    The body is the temple of the soul.  The seven deadly sins are still deadly.  Especially the Sin of Gluttony.  Which is the wish for death.

    Clean up the diet and lifestyle and the body will give a clear picture.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 1:24pm

    Spock396

    Spock396

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 3

    2

    Along with Chris I've been following this guy - Dr John Campbell

    Listen to what he has to say - particularly at 2:38, that resonated with me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WLk-Mxydrk

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 1:37pm

    Zana Hart

    Zana Hart

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 23 2011

    Posts: 33

    2

    Some Links

    [1 I follow a private Facebook group called Prep Club. Just sign in to FB and then type Prep Club in the bar. I see Daisy Luther, Gail Levy, and other preppers I've seen around. Lots of practical info about what people are stocking up on.

    [2] Daisy referred to a couple of links that discuss stuff that might be hard or impossible to get from China. (I gotta check my sewing machine needle supply...) These are in the context of tariff wars but are surely pertinent here too:

    https://www.theorganicprepper.com/tariff-war-will-these-items/

    and a very long list that blog post is based on: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/301FRN.pdf

    Makes me think about what will happen without some of the supplies that up till now have come from China.Car parts, health care items, a lot more.

    [3] Dogwise, a magazine, just put out this article. Kind of MSM but worth a look:

    https://www.dogster.com/dog-health-care/can-my-dog-get-coronavirus?

    [4] NY Times article on why children are less likely to get coronavirus:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/health/coronavirus-children.html

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 1:48pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 730

    2

    Very troubled about Chris' Wikipedia page removed

    This is the exact kind of censorship that seems shouldn't happen in America.  Beyond that there is no reason to sensor it. There is no conspiracy theory.  This is a real virus. its a real pandemic - Chris just predicted( by the available data ) it before it was announced by the officials.. He did condemn the media , which was fair to do.   And they now are all coming around a bit.  We have seen some of that.  The first acceptance by authorities now is that it is a pandemic it will likely circulate in the masses and will not be stopped.    Meanwhile everyone else said this is just false scare like sars and H1N1 - which is in circulation also.. and does kill normal young people without health issues.   The differnce is H1N1 is a flu and acts like a flu - this is a coronavirus and acts and tastes more like the spanish flu which is a coronavirus not a flu.. so, it was troubling.   The H1N1 was never suspected of a mortality rate that was high - just who it killed.    this is different.  Anyway.. Chris laid this out as it should be with the avialable evidence and he was correct about the pandemic coming and being here - which it is - and i could have predicted it too with the evidence  provided by Chris..  any educated person that actually objectively reviewed the evidence would come to the same conclusion..  What is worse about the removal is the page said nothing more than the facts of who he was.. and he is a pathologist(phd) from one of the top 20 if not 10 medical and science universities in the nation..  So, this is clear censorship without foundation.  as their were no non facts there.  reprehensible.. Again unless we take a subset of the chinese population randomly and following them for 4 weeks we cannot make any predictions regarding mortality.. as it takes longer to kill to than it does to infect.. so it will never out pace or catch up with the actual mortality rate.. chris demonstrated with a model how after so many cycles a 6.5% mortality would like 2%   if it had a lag of just 5 days,. we know it probably more than that and we have a case study of 21 days..   not 5 .. so we know it can be as high as that , though the average could be half that.   so that model was conservative.. and the cdc chair said that the rate is lower because there are lot more infected than reported.. "thank you"  stating again .. do not blow this off it is here..   So, what really need to concern our selves with is mortality. and it looks like it produces a high incidence of severe illness beyond the stressed capacity of medical systems.. Fact again.. which means - its a big issue if you have this many critical people with ARDS and no available medical treatment. as it gets more and more people.. that are not counted.. "CDC chair again "  so, where is the foul by Chris?? there is no justification of rightious man's statements..which could prepare thousands as the govt  dont really care..why woudl that medical costs and SSA burden for the elderly population is big issue for the govt , this could be a problem solver.. conspiracy?? not really. Motive ? yes.   Doing nothing is as wrong as doing something negative sometimes.. but not in the US govt book..

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 1:54pm

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 235

    1

    I see your point

    Andy

    Not trying to attack you.  I just thought you sounded anxious.  Clearly there are different genetic predispositions to certain illnesses (women get more breast cancer etc...).  It is a sensitive issue when the issue of race is thrown into the mix throughout the history of mankind (e.g. Nazis using "genetic weakness" as a reason to eradicate). The scientists certainly are looking at it and hopefully we will know if this ACE receptor is the cause of fatalities and if it can be used to help treat this thing.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 1:57pm

    tourcarve

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 21 2009

    Posts: 45

    1

    Things Interrupted

    Zana - Thank you for the links. The long list of items and materials from China gives pause for thought...

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 1:57pm

    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    0

    NO PROBLEM, My FRIEND

    God bless,

    -Andy

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:00pm

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1

    Numbers

    I did some calculations based on the numbers in the zerohedge article.
    It is not perfect but giving an indication. I would also impose very strict isolation like China did to curve these numbers down.

    Infection number 154,023 per 1 februari.
    Starting 1 december - 1 februari = 62 days.
    1.213 ^ 62 = 158.259 so the infection growth rate is 21.3 % per day

    the death toll number 24,589 per 1 februari.
    Starting 21 december - 1 februari = 41 days
    1.28 ^ 41 = 24866 so the death toll growth rate is 28 % per day

    Februari Infection number Death toll
    1 154,023 24,589
    2 186,829 31,473
    3 226,624 40,286
    4 274,895 51,566
    5 333,448 66,005
    6 404,473 84,487
    7 490,625 108,143
    8 595,129 138,423
    9 721,891 177,182
    10 875,654 226,793
    11 1,062,168 290,295
    12 1,288,410 371,578
    13 1,562,842 475,620
    14 1,895,727 608,794
    15 2,299,517 779,256

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:08pm

    ktruddymd

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 12 2010

    Posts: 19

    2

    Excellent Presentation on nCoV by Dr. Polland of Mayo Clinic

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:13pm

    ktruddymd

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 12 2010

    Posts: 19

    2

    % Patients Requiring Mechanical Ventilation

    Thanks for those numbers!  Might want to include a third column:  %Cases requiring ICU/Mechanical Ventilation = ~20% (as high as 30%).

    This additional column would better reflect the burden on the available resources in our current healthcare system:  woefully inadequate to meet the demands of this pandemic.

    An excellent video from Professor Polland of the Mayo Clinic spells out what may lie ahead.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:14pm

    bonus123567

    bonus123567

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

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    4

    SO2 Levels, Real numbers leaked. google maps wuhan biolab coverup. do not post on youtube or google.

    SO2 Levels Over China and what they mean: files.catbox.moe/dom477.png Chinese SO2 levels

     

    Someone at Tencent (Chinas largest mega company) "accidentally" leaked the real numbers:  http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1580913991749.jpg real numbers

     

    Google Maps moved location of Wuhan biolab
    http://archive.is/QIBmE

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:14pm

    ParamedicUK

    ParamedicUK

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    0

    New Video

    Awaiting the next video - when is it due?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:15pm

    ktruddymd

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 12 2010

    Posts: 19

    2

    nCoV receptor

    I got it wrong.  Watched the video again.

    My apologies.  Good lesson for me:  pay close attention to the details.

    Measure twice; cut once.

    Doc

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:24pm

    Galene77

    Galene77

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 24

    6

    Wuhan being hung out to dry....

    So this is the new Wuhan hospital for seriously compromised patients… or is it as I fear a containment camp… where the poorer people go to die?

    This is this chap’s 2nd video posted via VPN.

    Yes the BIGGER question is do/will the CCP trash 10m folk in the Hubei province for the collective great good?

    If you’re not a friend of the ‘party’ seems to me expensive IV care isn’t on the cards.
    Being stuck in the bed with some basic pain relief maybe, in which case this is your view.

    Patient zero in Wuhan was 1st week of December.

    Us in the the 1st world west will only know Mid-March/April if its our turn for the IV viral meds rationed... or not.

    Who foots the black-swan bill on that?

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:28pm

    kristen braun

    kristen braun

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    Joined: Jan 29 2020

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    New numbers out of Wuhan from the 5pm EST update BNO news site

    he table below shows confirmed cases of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China and other countries. To see a distribution map and a timeline, scroll down. There are currently 27,602 confirmed cases worldwide, including 564 fatalities.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:39pm

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2019

    Posts: 25

    1

    More reply about shotgun

    Do not buy a gun unless you’re going to use it. It’s not for scaring people off.  Birdshot is for birds.  4 is for varmits. Any shotgun load that won’t penetrate a wall or door will not penetrate a person enough to stop them immediately.  Make sure your family and all the good guys are 180 deg behind you.  Don’t draw fire in their direction.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 2:51pm

    SISUNOR

    SISUNOR

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

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    5

    Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths.

    Interesting, and probably closer to the truth.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594?fbclid=IwAR1hfo7ZUwpyRx91Uboi5M-smeMuvNxSTYujIK8EtrHoNft-Y4SN8PLt584

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 3:08pm

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 5921

    6

    Latest: 27,690 infected, 565 dead

    Per past days, these official numbers will likely be adjusted upwards over the next few hours

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 3:49pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 65

    2

    Understanding why different treatments are important

    In reply to Kunga,  physicians are licensed to 'practice' medicine.  Rarely do they know better than Nature in how to keep a patient alive and the smart ones simply try to help things along as best they can.  The not-so-good ones believe they are demigods to us mere humans.

    Providing supportive care (administering fluids, electrolytes, etc.)  *is* "honoring the body's wisdom" while herbal administrations (such as kaolin clays, pectin) are suggested to manage diarrhea in traditional systems of healthcare; Americans know the pharmaceutical brand name of this anti-diarrheal concoction as "Kaopectate".  Aspirin is derived from the bark of the willow tree. The two systems are not counterproductive.

    Eastern medical systems are very good in promoting health and well-ness; when that health deteriorates into a critical stage of ill-ness and dis-ease, Western 'allopathic' medicine is often superior.

    Humans are mostly water.  Hydration and cleanliness (usually with water) will do more than any pharmaceutical intervention in preventing illness from external agents like viruses and bacteria.

    Fever 'cooks' the proteins to boost immune response (low/mild fever) and interfere with infectious agent internal chemistry (good thing), but it risks 'cooking' the brain (high/raging fever) at the same time, which is considered a bad thing. 

    Diarrhea flushes out the digestive tract - the stuff the ill are coughing out get trapped in the oropharynx (nose/throat) and swallowed.  The digestive tract then may react to flush out the infectious agent in it's disabled or encapsulated form. Unfortunately, the natural pathway to replenish that water is also that same digestive tract.  Enter IV therapy.

    We are now entering that place when we will need to be our own experts, as advanced medical care may not be available.  One need not be a nursing student to study their curriculum and I've met more than one nurse who completed medical school, got their MD and got a nursing license instead.

    Knowledge is difficult to steal.

     

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 3:56pm

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 122

    1

    Bird Shot at close range

    It will kill the hell out of you.....

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:00pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    2

    5 Silicon Valley healthcare workers exposed to nCoV patient "sent home" for 2 wks., to be isolated, monitored

     

    5 healthcare workers sent home to ensure they didn’t contract coronavirus from patient

    Note the article never used the term "quarantine"; and that the nCoV positive patient was masked the entire time in the hospital, sent home for isolation. Key question is how many people did the potentially exposed workers interact with, and are/how are those people being tracked?

    "Five employees at Good Samaritan Hospital in Silicon Valley were sent home for about two weeks after coming into contact with a patient with coronavirus. "

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-02-04/healthcare-workers-sent-home-coronavirus-patient

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:14pm

    pcauchy

    pcauchy

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 8

    5

    Significant underestimation of infections in Wuhan by chinese government

    Hi Chris and Adam,

    Great blog! Just wanted to point out that the number of infected people in Wuhan - CANNOT - be the one released by the chinese government: out of the planes that have evacuated foreigners, i.e. so far Japanese (~200), French (~200 and ~250 the latter including Belgians and other europeans), and Germans, (~125) we find 1-5 infected out of 125-250 passengers (respectively 5, 0, 1 and 2 for the above-mentioned flights).

    By chance, we should not be finding any in such small subsamplings from a 10-million strong city.

    That's 8 infected out of 775 in total, so 1.03%, which points to 100,000 infected in Wuhan. Given the reported number, 10 times lower in Wuhan, we should have found only one out of all those passengers. So basically not possible.

    And this is considering that these subsamplings correspond to rather privileged people (expats) with potentially lower exposure to the virus (maybe higher access to preventative measures e.g. masks, vitamins etc.)...

    A reason for this underestimation is likely, like Chris said, the lack of detection (the sheer lack of tests and patients being turned away from hospitals left to essentially die at home, not counted in). Tragic... And potentially an underlying political agenda by the CCP especially in light of the quasi absence of deaths in other provinces.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:19pm

    pcauchy

    pcauchy

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 8

    1

    pcauchy said:

    Just an update on asymptomatic transmission:

    While the NEJM paper probably needs a correction (the chinese businesswoman did have symptoms after all) it does NOT change the fact that the virus was transmitted asymptomatically by patient 1.

    Also, we've all seen the news about the Diamond Princess, which Chris mentioned in the video: hear, hear, that's not one, or two but - TEN - infected by the person who was asymptomatic and tested positive once off the ship... Terrifying

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:19pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    3

    1st nCoV case cofirmed in Madison, WI from traveler to Beijing

    UW Health Statement on First Reported Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wisconsin

    "Madison, Wisconsin - On Thursday, January 30, 2020, a patient presented at the University Hospital emergency department. They had recently traveled to Beijing, China, and interacted with individuals from Wuhan, China, and presented with symptoms consistent with the virus upon their return to Madison."

    https://www.uwhealth.org/news/2019-novel-coronavirus/53149

    Note use of term "they" suggests there's more individuals potentially exposed. It took health officials a week to get test results from the CDC from the date the individual presented at the ER.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:21pm

    phoenixl

    phoenixl

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    Joined: Nov 01 2015

    Posts: 24

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    Wisconsin now has a case, but won't say where

    They just announced a positive test in Wisconsin today, but oddly they won't say what city. Anybody have any ideas why they would keep the location secret?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:23pm

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2081

    2

    Brandon Smith on what the Wuhu Flu lies mean

    http://www.alt-market.com/index.php/articles/4091-the-lies-we-are-being-told-about-the-coronavirus

    Lie #1: Deaths Caused By The Coronavirus Are Nothing Compared To The Death Rate Of The Average Flu...

    Lie #2: The Coronavirus Came From An Animal Market And The Claim It Is Engineered Is A “Conspiracy Theory”...

    Lie #3: The Virus Won't Have Any Effect On America

    Lie #4:  The Virus Is Contained

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:24pm

    msnrochny

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 04 2010

    Posts: 49

    8

    Event 201 - Watched the summary video. I’m even more worried now.

    The focus of these “thought leaders” in this summary of the Event 201 exercise seemed to be protecting wealth (i.e., trade and the economy), managing the message to guard against panic (including implied censorship -Google was mentioned), and heavy involvement of the U.N.  No where did I see anyone discuss the competing priorities of maintaining travel, economies, business interests, and protecting populations.  It frankly startled me.  These people seemed quite focused at looking like the smartest person in the room, but not a single one made a statement like, “ our priority must be to protect people from the virus over all other considerations.  There was an emotional disconnect from the discussion, and the numbers being bantered about.  This video fits perfectly with the weak verbiage and confusing logic we see coming from the WHO (like the apparent willingness to keep airlines running and borders open).  Watching this, Bill Clinton’s famous line came to me, “It’s about the economy stupid”, and after seeing this, it may be.  Watch and decide what had the attention of these people; maintaining financial interests or saving lives?  My take away is that because of priorities greater than lives, this will be like a global Katrina.  Like the people in New Orleans during that storm, we are on our own.  I didn’t see one person in this exercise that I would be willing to bet my life on.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:27pm

    Agent700

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 02 2014

    Posts: 44

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    Zhengli Shi, SO2 Levels

    THIS is some blockbuster stuff. The long article about Dr. Zhengli and her connections/funding is...nearly indescribable.

    WHERE did you find this information?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:27pm

    pcauchy

    pcauchy

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    Dosage

    Spot on - re chloroquine this was also noted for other coronaviruses:

    https://aac.asm.org/content/53/8/3416

    If you take it I would aim for at least 5 mg/kg of body weight as recommended in the paper.

    Ordered some already for loved ones, just in case.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:40pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

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    nCoV case presented in Madison, Wi

    The individual presented to the UW ER in Madison, WI on 1/30, confirmed test results came in and were reported today. Individual sent home to self-isolate.

    CDC leaves it primarily to state health depts. as to whether and how much information to release re: nCoV suspected or confirmed patients, and secondarily, to local health depts.

    I posted minutes before you, so you might have missed it here with health dept. link: https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-nothing-to-see-here-say-markets-the-media/?replytocom=309274#comment-309271

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:43pm

    pcauchy

    pcauchy

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 8

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    Contamination possible via faeces

    The virus seems to be able to propagate via faeces. This could make things much worse and could explain why the Chinese health authorities are struggling to stay on top, e.g. if it is in the sewer system (even though it won't last long there but the supply is just keeping on growing) ...

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3048611/coronavirus-scientists-identify-possible-new-mode-transmission

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:36pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    1

    28,276 of which 3,863 (14%) in critical condition Deaths: 565

    of which 3,863 (14%)
    in critical condition
    Deaths:

    565

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:47pm

    sapsucker

    sapsucker

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    Joined: Oct 02 2011

    Posts: 12

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    Wisconsin

    The person returned to Dane County Regional Airport after a trip to Beijing Jan. 30 and went directly to UW Hospital's emergency room, officials said.

    https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/health-med-fit/wisconsin-s-first-case-of-new-coronavirus-from-china-is/article_4ef1a52c-403a-57f1-bc7a-38222e66b44a.html

    He probably knew he was sick when boarding the flights.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:55pm

    quixtar

    quixtar

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    quixtar said:

    When/How did he indicate that?

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:45am

    Barbara

    Barbara

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    Interesting flu statistics

    This is one reason medical establishment tells us to worry about the flu first.  If you are in an at risk category, you probably should be taking precautions already based on seasonal flu.

    I'm actually wondering if for the healthy it would be better to be exposed and get the statistically probable mild case now when the ICU facilities are available should you be an unlucky one.  That will also leave us free to nurse less healthy family/friends without worrying about getting sick too.  I may change my mind if the death rate goes up in cases outside China, but for now it appears to be a possible option, especially as we get a little more recovery data outside of China.

    "In the U.S., it’s really a fear based on media and this being something new,” Dr. Jennifer Lighter, hospital epidemiologist at NYU Langone Health, said of the new coronavirus. “When in reality, people can take measures to protect themselves against the flu, which is here and prevalent and has already killed 10,000 people.”

    The coronavirus outbreak, however, is proving to be more deadly than the flu. It has killed roughly 2% of the people who have contracted it so far, according to world health officials. That compares with a mortality rate of 0.095% for the flu in the U.S., according to CDC estimates for the 2019-2020 flu season. "

    https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106362398-1580727197721coronavirusvsallflustrains.png?v=1580727218&w=630&h=354

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:35am

    km64

    km64

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    Common to many viruses

    From what I've read that is common to many viruses.

    And you would be shocked and disgusted by how much of it flys around the bathroom when you flush the toilet.

    Avoid public toilets, but if you must wash hand inside the restroom, and then use hand sanitizer AFTER you leave a public restroom.

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  • Sat, Feb 08, 2020 - 6:57pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Joined: Feb 04 2020

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    Spread by FARTS

    Fecal transmission implies that the awful smell you get may contain nCov particles.  Lovely.  This can go 'viral', pun intended.

     

    On a lighter note, at least the subject went to Urgent Care instead of the pub, of which Wisconsin has many.  (It's the best place to satisfy the two major food groups, beer and cheese)!

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  • Wed, Mar 04, 2020 - 1:07am

    rajgoud

    rajgoud

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    Joined: Feb 24 2020

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    Fast Spreding

    it's really so bad....spread so fast and easy to spread the around the world

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  • Sat, Mar 07, 2020 - 6:00am

    rajgoud

    rajgoud

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    Joined: Feb 24 2020

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    Recovery

    Will Caronavirus Go Away in Summer? Coronavirus scare is gripping the entire nation. Read More

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