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    Will An Oil Price Spike Be The Next Blow To The Economy?

    Art Berman predicts a 30% price increase in 2021
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, January 15, 2021, 9:23 AM

Like it or not, our modern way of life remains extremely dependent on oil. And even using the rosiest of forecasts, that’s not going to change anytime soon.

Which is why petroleum geologist Art Berman’s prediction of a 30% spike in oil prices later this year is so worrisome.

If it indeed occurs, it will be another painful gut-shot to a global economy still struggling to recover from the damage inflicted by the pandemic.

When the price of oil rises, the price of everything goes up. And there are many vulnerable businesses that simply won’t be able to withstand this double-digit increase to their cost structure in today’s environment.

The ripple effects will be severe and widespread.

More company closures. More lost jobs. Lower stock prices. But higher prices at the gas pump and the grocery store.

Which is why now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the nature of the risks and opportunities in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate:

 [ Watch & Download This Video on Vimeo ]

Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike Preston and John Llodra and their team at New Harbor Financial can do so by clicking here.

And if you’re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few months, we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your ongoing physical coronavirus preparations.

We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website. If you’ve already got one, great.

But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.

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36 Comments

  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 9:40am

    #1
    cowtown2011

    cowtown2011

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    Download version

    Thanks for another great interview. It would be awesome if you made these available in a format which people could download. Great for when travelling and I don't want to support YT in anyway so I can't download it from them. Thanks again and just an idea.

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 11:38am

    MKI

    MKI

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    ...and I don't want to support YT anyway

    Amen!

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 11:49am

    #3
    MKI

    MKI

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    GDP vs energy graph

    Problems with the graph around 4 min of GDP vs energy: 1) GDP sucks as a measure of life quality, 2) energy might be mainly oil right now, but that's just because it's so cheap, coal/NG has  room to grow, 3) 70% of oil is in transportation, and most transportation is just luxury and will go away without economic consequences if gas ever gets to $10/gal.

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 12:52pm

    #4
    Hladini

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    I don't want to support YT either!

    Anyone have a favorite youtube substitute?

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 1:36pm

    Jason

    Jason

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    Jason said:

    We have begun posting these videos to Vimeo as well and you can download for offline watching with that platform.  The link for today's video: https://vimeo.com/500940117.

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 1:42pm

    #6
    agitating prop

    agitating prop

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    work from home.

    Oil will probably rise as Art Berman suggests and part of that may have to do with a weakening of a dollar and increased demand after the pandemic is over. But with more work from home, demand is going to be curtailed to some degree, as that is likely going to be a long term trend.

     

     

     

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 1:51pm

    pyranablade

    pyranablade

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    Agitating Prop,

    I bet they mean "YouTube" (another fount of horrible liberal biases).

    Good thing the other posters on this site are unbiased (nyuk nyuk nyuk).

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 2:06pm

    #8
    agitating prop

    agitating prop

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    Pyranablade. OMG. For sure!

    Oh Lord, that is too funny. Well...didn't I just put my foot in my keyboard with that one!

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 4:52pm

    #9

    travissidelinger

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    Weekly EIA numbers

    Weekly I check the EIA numbers:

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashxhttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

    We are still holding at 11,000 bbl/day

     

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 7:54pm

    #10

    davefairtex

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    US crude production - flat since last summer

    This is something I've been watching too.  If I'd been able to ask Art a question, I'd ask him: "you projected that oil production would continue dropping from last summer's level (of about 11 mbpd), but it has mostly held steady.  Does your price projection assume a further drop in production from here?"

    Or: "what level of USFP would correspond with that 30% increase in price - and by when would this need to happen?"

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  • Fri, Jan 15, 2021 - 8:00pm

    cowtown2011

    cowtown2011

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    cowtown2011 said:

    Thanks. I will check it out.

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 4:55am

    Wilco

    Wilco

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    Wilco said:

    For those looking to download and avoid YT, there's a link right below the video to watch and download on Vimeo!

    I use this tool to download from YT: https://www.dvdvideosoft.com/products/dvd/Free-YouTube-Download.htm

     

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 6:09am

    #13
    brushhog

    brushhog

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    Zooming out..

    The picture gets a lot clearer. When things appear chaotic and indecipherable it often helps to take a few steps back and look at the global picture; Who benefits, who loses, who has power and who does not.

    When I zoom out, I see that China has overtaken the US in almost every metric. When the US was the only real world power, every country became more "Americanized" whether they liked it or not. The world became the 'vassal' state of the USA. Recourses were drained from all over the world to feed the empire.

    People in resource rich countries starved and lived in poverty because their resources were sucked out and sent to the US. This caused discontent all over the world and when the people resisted, their governments were taken down and US puppet regimes were installed to keep the resources flowing out.

    The wealthy billionaire power class in those countries become fabulously wealthy selling their countries' resources. They are all too happy to fund, aid, and abet the displacement of any "peoples' political movement" [ populism ].

    We are seeing the exact same thing unfold here in the US. We Americans are not used to being on the losing end of this dynamic so many of us are confused and getting lost in the details. Trump, for all of his imperfections and flaws, represented a people's movement to stop the loss of resources [ wealth, jobs, etc ] flowing out of our country and into China. Immediately, a well organized and powerful machine kicked in to remove him. Not because he was a "racist", not because he was a "Nazi" and not because he was "unfit". And not because of any political left/right dynamic. It kicked in because he threatened the flow of wealth and resources to China.

    "But wait a minute, Trump was pro-business, why did all of those billionaires and corporate interests go against him?"...Because Trump was pro American business. And the business making the corporate class rich is the business of selling resources to China. So he was removed and a Chinese puppet government was installed.

    Its all very simple and obvious when you take a step back and view the situation objectively. So what happens with oil? Oil, like all other resources is going to get more scarce and hence more expensive, particularly for American citizens. Food will too. In fact you are being conditioned to eat artificial meat and insect based proteins while our beef is being shipped to China [ at an increase of 700% over last year alone ].

    So climate change, "social justice", and "equality" are rouses that are being used to mask the resource drain. Cows are now bad for the environment, so we have to eat less. But we are not actually PRODUCING less. And that will play out across all commodities and resources. The beef is still being produced. The oil is still being produced. The minerals, medicine, metals, timber, etc, ect are all still being produced [ in many cases in greater and greater quantities ] but its being shipped to [and consumed by] China  because thats where the growth and power is.

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 7:55am

    #14
    planfortomorrow

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    I could write a book today on just what Art said in this podcast.!

    Truth is his estimate of a 30% spike in oil will be conservative. We have so much work to do just to get the infrastructure for an electrical economy up and running that there isn't enough oil out there to do the heavy lifting that will be required with the BTU's that oil gives us. We need solar panels everywhere, wind, hydro, and all other fuel sources. We will need transportation right alongside all of this in the form of fast trains, trolleys, electric, natural gas and hydro to move us around every darn place. It will be a nightmare. Add to this is that Biden may as well start printing S&H green stamps that allow you only X amount of gallons of gas a week and driving is restricted to jobs or church. Just like it was during WWII.

    Now, EIA says we produce 11 million BD and I'm calling out BULLSHIT. No way in hell we are doing this. Maybe, maybe 7 and Art says 5, maybe 6! Arts right. Trust me, its the political game being played and good for us because it's smart to report the higher number until reality hits in June.

    Now, I don't want to get emotional about this at all, oil is an easy call. Every dime that I can will go into oil and I have no doubts in my mind that I will make a shit load of cash, just this year. I did so in the after math of the Financial crisis and will benefit even more this time.

    Just since Arts last report to us I'm up 47% in oil, and it's going way higher. Oil and Gas is what I do and I am jacked up!

    We have entered the period where we have no good choices only bad. The world has been simplified for sure and everything is going the take a huge Deflationary hit but the essentials, they will absolutely go Inflationary. Discretionary income is now non existent for most, so belt tightening has to happen. But everyone is clueless and we are in trouble people, BIG trouble. Especially if you have family and they have needs that you could help them with.

    These days are very dangerous and if you don't adhere to what Art said today and follow what are obvious decisions, then it's over for you, no question about that in my mind.

    Be good, be safe and thank you Art, it's easy to see you are really trying to help and there are some who get it and some that don't.

    Thank you Adam as once again you brought in the most important speaker of the day and I'm sure Art appreciated you bringing him on because this is indeed a heavy load he carry's to try and warn of what is near, and every effort Art can make to help someone stay out of harms way I am sure he is willing to do. No different than what you and Chris do every day. There are good people in this world, it's refreshing as hell. Art is our blessing, I just hope everyone has listened to him.

    Peace...BOB

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 8:10am

    #15
    Netlej

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    Close but no cigar

    You started off so well Brushhog but went off the rails at the end. The Elites are not China puppets by any stretch. They do make a killing off of China though and thats all that matters to them. China has been printing massively, some say even more than the West, in order to create the image of prosperity. As this website should know, prosperity, real prosperity peaked a long time ago. All that is happening now is concentration of wealth and tons of false wealth creation.

    As far as oil, you are correct that the US has been taking it from wherever it is found but the other element of those imperial exploits has been demand destruction. The US understood the "export land model" very well and they ended it with a bang!

    Demand destruction is possibly as big or bigger issue to price of oil than depletion or at least they go hand in hand. TPTB has amply demonstrated that they can implement demand destruction when and wherever they wish, even here at home.

    So climate change, "social justice", "equality", beef production are not a rouse. They are real constraints and symptoms of constraints.

    Bottom line TPTB are just managing collapse to their benefit and we the 99% are going to take the short end of the stick unless we understand all this and act accordingly.

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 8:18am

    Pipyman

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    Hmmm

    “70% of oil is in transportation, and most transportation is just luxury and will go away without economic consequences if gas ever gets to $10/gal.”

    thats quite the claim.

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 8:52am

    #17

    LesPhelps

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    Difficult but doable first step

    Animal agriculture requires over 10 times the land, water and energy (oil) vs plant agriculture.

    The difference in environmental impact goes beyond this.  Farm animals generate 50 times the waste that humans generate.  We clean up our poop, but allow farm animal waste to pollute our land and waterways virtually untreated.

    Unless you put a lot of miles on you car, trading your Prius for a Hummer while at the same time going vegan would likely reduce your environmental footprint significantly.

    Some experts say that roughly 75% of our health care cost goes to procedures necessitated by our a dismal diet.  Think of all the energy consumed by 75% of our health care industry.

    Then, there are assisted living facilities and nursing homes...

    The information regarding these claims is as readily available to you as it is to me.  Sadly for some of you, some of this info is on YouTube.

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 9:32am

    Netlej

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    r.e. Animal agriculture

    It is the way Animal agriculture is done, CAFOs, that is to blame not meat and dairy.

    The waste generated should go where it is needed, in the same pasture that the animals graze in. Then after a few years of that the field is used for growing food for a couple years, rinse and repeat. Not rocket science.

    Meat, eggs, dairy, are THE most nutritious foods humans can eat, providing a multitude of critical nutrition not possible otherwise.

    Instead of CAFOs we need millions of small herds and flocks being managed by small farmers and ranchers, moving them around the landscape where needed, then farmers moving in and growing veg. Creates millions of jobs and produces the best healthy livestock and therefor best nutritional foods all around.

    All this info has been understood and talked about for generations, probably 1000's of years but is also on the intertubes.

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 10:35am

    #19
    brushhog

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    Animal and plant agriculture are symbiotic

    Its not an "either or", and its not a case of "animal ag bad, plant ag good". Both can be used harmoniously to counter balance the other. Vegetable monocropping with chemical fertilizers/weed suppressants is terribly harmful and destructive to the soil.

    Responsible animal farming operations using rotational grazing, conservative stocking rates, and sustainable practices are environmentally friendly. In fact soil can be improved with good farming methods or it can be destroyed by bad methods REGARDLESS of whether you are farming plants or animals.

    So, its not a question of "animal vs plant" farming. Its a question of good sustainable farming vs bad farming.

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 4:31pm

    #20
    TWalker5

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    Oil spike silver lining

    Am I nuts to think that a spike in the price of oil is not all bad?  Obviously it would slow the economy dramatically but maybe that is okay?  I guess I just get tired and discouraged watching everyone in my country (USA) treat oil like it flows freely from an inexhaustible supply.

    Maybe $7/gal gasoline would open some eyes/minds and even change some behaviors?

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 5:26pm

    MKI

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    thats quite the claim

    ...thats quite the claim.

    Didn't know it was a "claim", just reality. What part do you disagree with? 70% is transport? Most is luxury? Gas 4X price crushes demand? Note I have no real opinion here, just repeating what economists seem to think and it seems logical. Hell, most I know cut back driving/carpool past $5/gal, let alone $10. Maybe I just hang out with the dirt people....

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  • Sat, Jan 16, 2021 - 5:43pm

    #22

    Mark_BC

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    Mark_BC said:

    VLC media player allows you to download YT videos without using any sketchy third party website. Google the steps involved, it isn't intuitive but straightforward when you figure it out.

    I like to speed up the playback speed for videos and Vimeo doesn't allow that which is a pain. VLC allows you to speed it up.

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  • Sun, Jan 17, 2021 - 12:34am

    Pipyman

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    All of it

    70% transportation? What you mean like transporting our food 1000’s of miles? Cheap imported goods?

    Going away without consequences seems unlikely to put it mildly. Hell, I travel ridiculously all the time in order to do my ridiculous bureaucratic job, go away, good, without consequences, shit, not for me!

    Your comment seems to have a personal tone not a well thought through one.

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  • Sun, Jan 17, 2021 - 8:28am

    MKI

    MKI

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    All of it

    If it's so hard to cut back on transportation because of food, perhaps you have been asleep for Covid? Food and infrastructure are working just fine, and we've gone way past peak oil during the pandemic. We've done the experiment, and it's clear that most transport is flat-out luxury or commuting easily replaced by Zoom meetings. We could easily cut our oil consumption to a tiny fraction of what we use even today under Covid without quality-of-life cost - look at Europe. And it looks like we peaked in 2020 without the end of the world as we know it anyway.

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  • Sun, Jan 17, 2021 - 9:36am

    Pipyman

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    Really

    It sounds to me like you’re spending on a credit card with reckless abandon and telling me how pleasant the experience was before you get the bill. You’re absolutely right there is a hell of a lot of  “luxury” energy expense that will not affect quality of life dramatically if lost but it sure will affect the economy as it is currently set up; just ask businesses reliant upon tourism as I have what lockdowns have done. And zoom etc can and will save a significant amount of energy and likely “kick the can”. However, claiming that there will be no economic consequences because the “luxury” can disappear strikes me as delusional I’m afraid.

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  • Sun, Jan 17, 2021 - 5:44pm

    #26
    Mysterymet

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    70% luxury? I don’t think so.

    https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php
    so 68% goes to transportation. A little less than half of the oil becomes gasoline. Most people use their cars for commuting, not a luxury. Many people in the country live in area without mass transit. Given the whole covid thing even if mass transit was available to me I wouldn’t use it at this point anyway. Are you going to tell people they can’t use their cars? What if these people are doctors, firefighters, teachers, soldiers? Are people’s livelihoods luxuries to you?  20% of it becomes diesel fuel and heating oil. Do you consider home heating oil a luxury? Do you consider fuel for interstate trucks and trains that move food and other goods across the country a luxury? Are you going to tell the farmers they can’t fuel their harvesters because most transportation is luxury? How about the guys working at the power or water treatment plants?  I hope you are completely energy, water and waste independent.

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  • Sun, Jan 17, 2021 - 6:41pm

    travissidelinger

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    travissidelinger said:

    Correct.  Cost/supply strains on our car transportation system is a minor concern.  Cost/supply strains on our trucking transportation system is larger concern.  They will pass those costs onto everything they transport, which is just about everything around us, including our food.  When our trucking system declines, so does our entire system.

     

    -Travis

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  • Sun, Jan 17, 2021 - 8:30pm

    #28

    timeandtide

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    The economy is oil?

    Another great interview. However, the idea that the economy is oil is a huge over simplification.

    The economy is struggling regardless of what oil is doing. Inflation expectations are high based on the performance of the inflation linked TIPS. They seem to be tracking the WTI oil price. WTI price is most likely rising for the reasons outlined by Art but that says nothing about demand which was dismissed by Art.

    All the money printing has, not surprisingly, led to alarm about a breakout in inflation but it has not happened in CPI terms. Instead inflation has broken out big time in asset prices. Can those prices be maintained? If you judge market trends to the upside or downside through the lens of fundamental cause and effect, then you would probably conclude that, as long as the Fed and other central banks keep printing, asset prices will remain in an upward trend.

    If, like me, you believe that in an arena of fundamental uncertainty like stock markets, that speculation is driven by herding behaviour that can spook and stampede, then the conditions for that happening are near perfect.

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  • Mon, Jan 18, 2021 - 7:29am

    Mohammed Mast

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    Sorry Netlej

    Les has it right on this. Meat and dairy are down the list.

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/245259

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  • Mon, Jan 18, 2021 - 7:37am

    Mysterymet

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    Agricultural methods aside we are designed by nature as meat eaters

    https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/evidence-for-meat-eating-by-early-humans-103874273/

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  • Mon, Jan 18, 2021 - 8:44am

    Netlej

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    Apology accepted

    Mo - Apology accepted. Your link and viewpoint rejected.

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  • Mon, Jan 18, 2021 - 9:01am

    MKI

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    MKI said:

    Are you going to tell people they can’t use their cars? What if these people are doctors, firefighters, teachers, soldiers? Are people’s livelihoods luxuries to you?  20% of it becomes diesel fuel and heating oil. Do you consider home heating oil a luxury? Do you consider fuel for interstate trucks and trains that move food and other goods across the country a luxury? Are you going to tell the farmers they can’t fuel their harvesters because most transportation is luxury? How about the guys working at the power or water treatment plants?  I hope you are completely energy, water and waste independent.

    Hysterics much? Luckily, I don't need to argue the point; I've already been proven correct due to covid: we operate just fine with much less driving, and nobody is going hungry.

    Cost/supply strains on our trucking transportation system is larger concern. They will pass those costs onto everything they transport, which is just about everything around us, including our food. When our trucking system declines, so does our entire system.

    Huh? We are nowhere near supply strains, we have demand strains because nobody is driving much. Covid shows how cutting fuel way down has no meaningful effect on American's worldwide bread basket food supply (and obesity, I'm afraid...). We are awash in extra oil. And we haven't even made a serious push to nuclear or coal for electric cars, nor natural gas cars yet. Which makes sense; we are awash in oil.

    However, the idea that the economy is oil is a huge over simplification.

    Amen. As I said earlier, covid proves we can easily cut our oil consumption to a tiny fraction of what we use even today even without quality-of-life cost. Plus look at Europe. And it looks like we peaked in 2020 without anyone even noticing. Nobody seems to even be paying attention to the data (except those of us who work in oil, I'm afraid :-)).

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  • Mon, Jan 18, 2021 - 2:59pm

    #33
    brushhog

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    Dont approach...

    .....A bull from the front, a horse from the rear....or a fool from any side.

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  • Tue, Jan 19, 2021 - 5:13am

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Data?

    Gee I thought this was PP not Facebook.

    Oh well I guess entropy rules.

    New people don't realize assertions belong on social media. Data is required to carry on dialog here.

    There are a lot of noobs here now.

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  • Wed, Jan 20, 2021 - 11:19am

    Andy_in_Hawick

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    Useful … but expensive!

    Hi Wilco

    Thanks for the link to this software. The 'free' version is incredibly slow and results is a badly watermarked version. The purchase price for the full version is too high given that there are several free options out there including using VLC.

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  • Thu, Jan 21, 2021 - 9:13am

    paranoid

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    paranoid said:

    good insights brushhog ...PP is calling for rising oil prices - is this BOTH inflationary and deflationary? Inflationary - costs of goods rises. Deflation - people drive and spend less since everything costs more.

    Technology is exponentially deflationary - is this going to hit us in 2021 significantly?

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