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    Thumbnail image with title when this runs out watch out! Episode 11 Episode 011

    When This Runs Short, Watch Out!

    The threat I see to economic expansion
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 18, 2021, 7:16 PM

Video Description

There’s one thing that I think might cause a breakdown in the system of money and halt the economic expansion in its tracks.  Come to learn about the critical importance of Net Energy, stay for the prediction about how an oil shortage within the next year could cause the gross experiment in money printing to come to a grinding halt.

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41 Comments

  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 8:01pm

    #1

    Arthur Robey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2010

    Posts: 1582

    2

    Nostalgia, Get used to It.

    Ah yes, the old Oil Drum, I miss it.

    These things are a long time coming, but they come. I position myself for my Next Incarnation.

    Here is the Wrong Way, it pulls upon my bank account. Is it the panacea? Obviously not! But it has a 100km range.

    Don't like it? Prefer your V8 pickup? There are no pills for nostalgia.





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  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 8:19pm

    #2
    Malory Smith

    Malory Smith

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    Joined: May 21 2021

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    5

    Malory Smith said:

    Just wanted to say thanks to Chris for the COVID heads up last year or two years ago, pandemic time moves different. Nice to have your voice back. I haven’t doomed this hard since the LATOC days leading to the ‘08 crash. Alarm bells going off all over the place.

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  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 11:06pm

    #3
    wotthecurtains

    wotthecurtains

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    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 946

    17

    For those who didn't get their fill of Chris today

    KunstlerCast 345 — Jawing about Covid-19’n Stuff with Chris Martenson

    He did the Kunstler cast recently.

    This is the sort of interview that if I was mentioning Chris to someone and they said, "Who the hell is Chris Martenson?" this would be a good interview to send their way.

    Jim is a fun interviewer and gives Chris a lot of space to show why he's a great information scout.

    And on that note, I would like to request that when Chris does "outside" interviews we get some notification or better yet just a link on the site to those interviews.

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  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 11:24pm

    #4
    dreinmund

    dreinmund

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    4

    dreinmund said:

    Watching “Planet of the Humans” for the first time. Amazing. There are multiple “Crash Course” moments in it - the realization that our civilization (and the hoax of green energy) is just based on fossil fuels.

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  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 11:51pm

    Arthur Robey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2010

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    0

    Reply to Dreinmund

    I am going to use the hoax of photovoltaics until the wheels fall off.

    Sheer desperation is going to loosen the grip of Big Dolla from the throat of warm fusion and all associated miracles.

    But it's going to take time. Meanwhile, photovoltaics are going to turn my wheels.

    Edit: unless the Electric Universe model is correct, and the sun is about go micronova. Then, if it moves, it is food.

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  • Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - 11:51pm

    Dontknownothin

    Dontknownothin

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    Dontknownothin said:

    CH4 (methane) is one of the building blocks of the amino acids that make up our very bodies. Its incredible how naive people are about the things they demonize. I guess that's how you get a population to take an unproven vaccine...

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 12:31am

    #7
    AlvezPopinov

    AlvezPopinov

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    Joined: Jun 10 2021

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    0

    Solutions

    We will all live in highrises like termites. It will be crowded. On the other hand party, party, party. New people to meet, more social get-togethers where humans can crack a brew with new friends and work on the CH4. I red about something called the Great Restart, the other day and think everybody should read about it and support it. Its the way of the futur and you cant fight progress.

    We dont need oil because neccessary is the mother of intention.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 12:41am

    #8

    Arthur Robey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2010

    Posts: 1582

    2

    Another spin.

    While the weather clears, let us look at something that may make the oil problems moot.

    Here is a recent discovery that supports the Electric Universe model.





    This lends credence to ­Ben's prognostication that the Next end of the world is upon us. (Is this actionable? Ben certainly thinks so. He has retreated to high ground.)

    But the destruction of the Edifice of Kludges that is modern physics could also be our salvation.

    The issue becomes, "How do we get this information to the other side of the disturbance?".

    The last lot tried to warn us by building a pyramid and pointing a tunnel at Sirius, the only star that does not precess with the Great Year.

    "Solve this riddle", said the Sphinx, "and you live; Fail and you die"

    The riddle has been solved just as doom looms.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 7:49am

    #9

    roosterrancher

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 16 2010

    Posts: 220

    10

    The Peak

    How is it that very smart people don't or won't understand peak oil?

    We have had 13 years here on the ranch to become ready for what is upon us, far too many of my friends and family thought I was nuts when I pulled stakes and left Phoenix after 50 years. To me it just seems like a math problem and I am just not that good at math!

    I am fascinated as to why little ol me would take action and why my really smart friends haven't. Is it denial? I did take me about three months of research before I had my oh shit moment. As Chris points out, every bit of thinking and every decision I have made since then has been guided by that sudden realization.

    Are we ready? That is really an unknown. Adapt and change is out moto. Our path has led us to a market garden model of agriculture with very little in the way of fossil fuel inputs, that path blessed us with our community that has supported it.

    I feel a conviction of service, what ever cosmic force led us here seems to have set us up to feed as many as we can.

    This last 13 years has been a time of very hard work and rich relationships, I have never felt more alive and connected.

    Even looking into the chasm of peak oil, it's just not that hard to feel grateful for what we have and where we live.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 9:10am

    #10
    LBL

    LBL

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    LBL said:

    Will be interesting to see how this affects Brazil, since they run their cars on Ethanol.

    Those empty 5 gallon gasoline containers in the garage ... maybe it's time to fill them.

     

    Since PROFIT is the key organizing parameter for a quasi-Capitalist economy ... would be interesting to see all the publicly held companies answer one simple question -

    What happens to their profits when gasoline is $5 a gallon ?

    What happens to their profits when gasoline is $8 a gallon ?

    etc.

     

    I know the attitude at a lot of new-tech companies is that they "won't be affected" and that "there will be enough for us".

    When will oil prices affect people's ability & desire to buy advertising from Google or Youtube or Facebook ?

     

    One data point for sustainable fuels ... if you run a diesel powered Expeller to extract sunflower oil from sunflower seeds, about 1/3 of your output is used to power the Expeller.

    That doesn't include all the energy to queue up tons of sunflower seed heads next to the machine.

    Also doesn't include the energy needed to arrange buckets of raw oil in the sun, to de-water them.

    And the buckets are High Density Polyethylene - which sunlight degrades.  So the oil presser would need to switch to metal containers in the longer run.

     

    Personally I am interested in fuel supplements such as Gorse oil.  I looked around and found -1- grad paper at an Oregon college, where they studied the practice of extracting highly flammable sap from plants like Gorse and Scotch Broom.

     

    BOTTOM LINE:

    The US economy is ADDICTED to electricity.

    The EROEI for nuclear is discussed here ...

    eroei nuclear - Google Search
    https://www.google.com/search?q=eroei+nuclear&oq=eroei+nuclear&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i10l4j0i10i22i30.8144j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    Energy Return on Investment - World Nuclear Association
    https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-the-environment/energy-return-on-investment.aspx

    A resurgence of Nuclear seems inevitable.  Maybe even Thorium.

    That and little things, like me burning blackberry bushes to generate steam.

    And the little details like safe storage of nuclear residues ... not so much.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 9:11am

    #11
    brushhog

    brushhog

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    11

    Peak oil vs economic output

    I remember a few years ago we had a discussion here regarding oil price...net oil return...and the economy. How these drops in economic output were linked to the cost of oil.

    So when oil price is low the economy ramps up production...we have a "boom". Then the increased demand for oil pushes prices up which puts the breaks on growth. Essentially the economy is in a constant state of trying to grow but hitting the wall of a finite resource.

    That explanation makes alot of sense to me. Of course we cant discount the very real possibility of new oil discovery which would change the game completely...or some new technological discovery that would allow us to grow on much less fossil fuel. Dont forget the infamous book written by the MIT science guys in the 1970's "limits to growth" which predicted we'd run out of arable farm land to feed the world around 2000. Turns out we've been able to produce much more on much less which changed the entire paradigm.

    This is the problem with science and prediction, we can only perceive so many variables. The conscious human mind perceives 3 dimensions but reality may exist in 10 dimensions....or 20...or possibly an unlimited number of dimensions which our minds cannot even conceive of.

    Bottomline, I dont know whats going to happen, I think the peak oil argument makes sense but I take it with a grain of salt. The goal is preparedness so how do I prepare for the unknown and the possibility of peak oil?

    I work toward self sufficiency. I gauge oil shortages as a real possibility so I heat with wood, I have some back-up hand tools with which I could run my farm at a low output if necessary. I have the following "preps" in place;

    1. Hand saws to replace my chainsaw [ I love silky saws ]
    2. A couple of scythes with replacement blades and sharpening tools. This would allow me to make small batches of hay with which I could maintain a cow and calf, maybe a few sheep too.
    3. A simple pump for my well [ no power, no water ]
    4. a 240 gallon diesel storage tank [ this would allow me, 'theoretically', to use my tractors for 2-3 years during a shortage. In reality the odds that nothing would break down on the tractor or that parts would be available in such a world seems unlikely...but, hey, its worth a try ].

    5. A drafty "cob" type horse. We have a thick bodied "cob" style horse. I work with her on pulling  now and then. For pulling logs out of the woods, plowing gardens, or just about anything, horses like this would become invaluable. In fact its hard to even find drafty breeds anymore. Ideally, at some point I'd like to get some horse drawn haying equipment and do small batches with her.
    6. Community. In a way this is now our weak point as we have moved very recently to a new homestead. I spent 11 years building "capital" with good neighbors and thats all lost now. It starts with a hello, a willingness to listen, and a generous spirit...at least I know that much.

    7. Spirituality. This is the key stone to resilience and it is my opinion that nobody can overcome real hardship without a strong faith in a higher power. In fact I'd go so far as to say that a person of strong faith can still persevere in ABSENCE of all or most of the other things.   This is the most important element of resilience and sadly the one least discussed, least understood, and least valued.

    If you dont believe that there is a purpose for you and yours, some plan by some benevolent universal force.... the pressures of going against the grain to survive will break your spirit. Look at the people lining up to get vaxxed by a drug they know nothing about...even those who say they dont want it cannot withstand the social pressures and they cave. Well in a life or death situation, multiply those pressures by 10.

    If you look into the study called "blue zones" where they focus on the longest lived people, their habits and traits, they find certain things in common in all of them.

    1. They live close to the earth [ grow a portion of their own food, work outdoors etc ]

    2. Strong family and community ties

    3. Strong faith in a higher power

    Those are the keys to survival on many levels.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 10:11am

    Netlej

    Netlej

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    Limits

    Brushhog said - "Turns out we've been able to produce much more on much less which changed the entire paradigm."

    Oh but we haven't. We have compromised the full spectrum of nutrition of food stocks for both humans and animals and introduced deadly toxins throughout the process together which has generated an exponential increase in chronic disease and infertility. spelling the extinction of humans within a generation even without peak oil, climate change, or anything else. Other than that everything is peachy.

    This is a prime example of human hubris, believing we can do things better than nature. Since you believe that I take it you are fully vaxed?

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 10:12am

    #13
    chipshot

    chipshot

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    #1 Problem Caused By Oil Shortage?

    There will be many problems resulting from shortages and escalating prices, but most concerning to me is how people react.  I don't think it will be pretty.  People are more likely to view one another as competition and enemies, than as allies to work in cooperation with.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 10:14am

    #14
    Audrey Doepker

    Audrey Doepker

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    Irreversible bet on green energy

    1. “To summarize. In an amazingly short period of time, the world has made an irreversible bet on green energy sources - solar, wind, and biofuels - being able to shoulder much of its energy burden. This is a transition without a track record and a very spotty roadmap of implementation. Time will tell if this bet will pay off. If my judgment is correct, we won’t have long to find out.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Its-Too-Late-To-Avoid-A-Major-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 10:23am

    Mysterymet

    Mysterymet

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    Joined: May 23 2020

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    1

    Normalcy bias

    https://psychologenie.com/insight-into-concept-of-normalcy-bias-in-psychology

    I wonder if some of the inaction and refusal to see situations happen relate to this. I am not at any way trained in this type of thing but having been in quite a few dangerous situations over the years and being a people watcher at heart I’d see people acting in ways that I would say fit this.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 11:29am

    #16
    Primary Care_MD

    Primary Care_MD

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    5

    phony green agenda

    Re: the CEOs of the Big Oil companies, I suspect that not only do they attend WEF / Davos, but they actually set the agenda. And conceal their true intent by using puppets to push phony green agendas.

    So the plan is: invade Iran. Invade Venezuela. Glaciers melting means now they can drill under the Arctic Sea. IOW, do whatever it takes to keep the monopoly going; do not allow the production of energy / electricity (or food) to be decentralized. 

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 12:22pm

    #17
    brushhog

    brushhog

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    brushhog said:

    "Oh but we haven't. We have compromised the full spectrum of nutrition of food stocks for both humans and animals and introduced deadly toxins throughout the process together which has generated an exponential increase in chronic disease and infertility. spelling the extinction of humans within a generation even without peak oil, climate change, or anything else. Other than that everything is peachy."

    My point was that they failed to predict it. The prediction from the science "in" crowd..."MIT" the gold standard of the modern, scientific intelligentsia predicted famine...shortages....the inability to feed the population.

    They were wrong. That was my point regarding predictions based on known variables using a scientific method. It usually doesnt work. Why? Because the number of variables, how they all interact, and etc is not known and cannot be calculated accurately by any known method.

    Predicting the "extinction" of humanity "within a generation"? You should help yourself to a big chunk of humble pie when making those kinds of predictions.

     

    "This is a prime example of human hubris, believing we can do things better than nature. Since you believe that I take it you are fully vaxed?"

    The hubris is in believing that "we" and nature exist independently and that somehow we can manage and predict nature...[even our own ]. History has shown, empirically, that we cannot.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 12:22pm

    #18
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    16

    Connecting the dots

    My instincts tell me that the pending oil crisis is the foundational reason for the plandemic. Oil price increases as suggested will create a crisis of unimaginable scale, resulting in a 'global spring'. Social unrest everywhere will begin and escalate rapidly. People are already well primed with fear. Shortages and hyperinflation, especially for food, will push most over the edge into panic mode. That panic will spread like wildfire. People will find themselves desperate, in survival mode. What that looks like will depend on where they live.

    The oligarchs know this, have anticipated this, have been readying for this for a long time. They knew we would hit the wall of finite resources. They kept the illusion going as long as they could, the latest being fracking and shale oil. They succeeded in keeping us lulled into a [false] sense of all is well in the world, party on people!

    They are electing to cull the population via the virus/vaccines, rather than let this happen on its own, knowing what is likely to happen in the near term if they do not do something drastic. Perhaps they do have an altruistic side after all? Although I still believe there is also a eugenics rationale involved.

    There is no coincidence in my mind that the pandemic is happening as the fracking illusion popped. Gail Tverberg has valid insights re the oil supply side of things. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/05/27/dont-expect-the-world-economy-to-resume-its-prior-growth-pattern-after-covid-19/ an excerpt from this last link:

    [b] Create a “fear of the coronavirus” story, and use it to keep people inside and away from traveling as much as possible. Emphasize the possibility of mutations. If people cut back on traveling, it saves oil. If they cut back on eating out and large celebrations such as weddings, it reduces food wastage. If a pandemic takes place, politicians can use it as an excuse to mitigate problems of many kinds:

    • Reduce the need for imported oil, by keeping citizens at home

    • Keep factories closed, without disclosing that the factories could not really operate at full capacity because of inadequate orders or missing raw materials

    • Use shutdowns to keep order in areas disrupted by uprisings related to low wages

    • Hide the problem of many failing stores and businesses behind a new “temporary” problem

    • Give the politician a new sense of control with new rules related to the epidemic

    It is disturbing that back in 2010, the Rockefeller Foundation was looking at using pandemics to control people when the foundation was examining possible workarounds for too large a population relative to resources.

    When I step back and look at it all in totality, I think that the elites are doing several things to mitigate the oil endgame which is now manifesting for real: massive depopulation via the vaccines, control of the masses via emergency declarations that override democratic rule enabling indiscriminate lock downs and other measures to control us, further lock downs related to resource depletion but saying it is related to climate, and finally, the shift to transhumanism. If you doubt this last part, take a look at this publication from the Government of Canada:
    Brushog is correct in saying that spirituality is a necessary key part of survival strategy. Developing a 'deep pantry' of mental, emotional and spiritual resilience will be just as important as the farming and food stores. After all, the farm will not function, the gardens will not grow, and the food will not get processed and consumed if we become mentally unhinged and unable to cope.
    There is no question in my mind that we are approaching the climax of this Fourth Turning. Those of us who have advanced knowledge of possible scenarios and choose to act on that information now have a better chance of getting through what lay ahead than those who are living in blissful ignorance.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 12:32pm

    #19
    XZBD2

    XZBD2

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    Can we call it inflation?

      Here is my thinking.  According to Richard Werner “money” (credit) is created by the banks (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8j51XZegsk) and according to Jeff Snider & Emil Kolanowski  the Fed doesn’t print money, but does an asset swap and the resulting reserves on the banks balance sheet are better thought of as something like laundry tokens, great if your a laundromat, but not so useful for the general economy. (https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/06/18/eurodollar-universitys-making-sense-episode-82-part-1-federal-reserve-is-not-a-central-bank/).  Thus in order to create “money” in our current economy banks have to make loans and again accord to Snider most of this occurs in the offshore unregulated Eurodollar system (estimated through TIC data), because, well,  it is unregulated and as Bill Black indicates bankers incentive to make a loan is from the fees they collect not so much with what will happen to the loan or the bank. (https://www.ted.com/talks/william_black_how_to_rob_a_bank_from_the_inside_that_is).  After 2008 crises, which was a crises in the value of collateral backing up the “dollars” (credit) created in the eurodollar system, even though regulators eliminated the mark to market requirement so banks could value the collateral at what ever they needed it to be, the trust was lost and surprise, surprise, surprise, bankers don't trust each others valuation of their collateral and now rush back to the most liquid collateral, on the run treasuries, whenever there is any sort of stress on the system.  In fact there is currently so much demand for treasuries that the Fed has to offer reverse repo to keep short term treasury rates going negative and blowing up the Money market funds. (https://www.sgtreport.com/2021/06/with-reverse-repos-the-fed-is-now-trying-to-clean-up-its-own-mess/).  Remember higher demand lower yields.  Then there is the actual economy, while dramatically improved from last year, small businesses, which provide most of the income growth are still getting killed and we are nowhere near back to “normal”, which back in 2019 was not looking that good to begin with.   So why the higher prices?  I believe most is do to just in time supply chains failing and a cascading effect throughout the economy especially here in the US where we’ve outsourced just about everything we can. Speculators seeing this have jumped in driving up prices and making the situation worse. Then there is the shut downs forcing everyone into monopolies as they were the only ones allowed to operate. Just like credit cards offering you that cash back, we all know it is ultimately coming out of our pocket, but except in a few cases such as gas where you can buy it for 10% less with cash, they have a monopoly with no alternatives.  The same is true for the “free” shipping  and great deals you get on Amazon while it charges the sellers 25% fees.  That is only possible with a monopoly and it comes out of your pocket via higher prices, because sellers are forced to sell through the platform.  The same holds true for education, healthcare, etc.  Hell, Mat Stoller even indicates it applies all the way to things such as cheerleading where Bain Capital has a monopoly (https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/how-a-cheerleading-monopolist-played).   As we know from the failure of Bill Gates monopolies to improve Ag (https://vandanashivamovie.com/)  with ~70% of food being produced by small farms or the SolarWinds security debacle (https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/how-to-get-rich-sabotaging-nuclear), economies of scale haven’t played out so well and the actual rate of production growth is down thus putting more stress on the system by not producing sufficient collateral to back up all that credit growth.  

    Now there is no doubt that oil is the key to running our system and we are, as Chris clearly demonstrates, at a turning point where supply will no longer meet demand at least if the economy keeps growing.  I believe in the middle of last year Art Berman predicted that because of lack of investment (people  tired of loosing money) that oil would get to around $80 at this point.  Gail Tverberg estimates it will take $120 oil to make the offline production profitable and that it is unrealistic to expect alternatives to fill the gap (https://ourfiniteworld.com/).  Nate Hagen points out that because industries have leveraged cheap oil to allow their inefficient processes to produce inexpensive products, think industrial Ag, that they are extremely sensitive to rises in prices, thus our economy can’t operate for long at oil prices higher than they currently are. (https://www.postcarbon.org/energy-money-and-technology-from-the-lens-of-the-superorganism/).   So Gail postulates that rather than a steady increase in oil prices due to insufficient supply, we will get an unstable system which wildly fluctuates between the extremes, which depend on how well the industry can absorb the shocks at the moment.  I suspect currently not all the well, so I’m not betting on the oil price rising much more, though if I was, I would be looking at Art Berman’s models for conformation.  While definitely not an economist, I suspect expectations have gotten over the tips of their skis on this one and that we will see short term, the market and commodities face plant as bond yields and a strengthening dollar imply.  The dollar will continue its downward trajectory overall, but relative to other world currencies I think at the moment it has gone too far because compared to the rate it was being created in the Eurodollar system its growth rate has been curtailed for lack of trusted collateral and no matter what the Wizard (Fed) says they are not really in control, though they can, with the help of the treasury and the companies that actually control the market Blackrock, Vangard & State St (https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/11/30/group-aims-to-limit-power-of-blackrock-vanguard-state-street/a0  influence asset prices and thus (collateral values) liquidity in the market.  Love to see what people who understand the economy much better than I think. 

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 12:42pm

    #20
    Steven Kelso

    Steven Kelso

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Aug 22 2018

    Posts: 296

    2

    Energy Consortium

    I've said for many years: Even if they could make technologies run on farts and laughter, they would figure our a way to meter them and charge you for it.

    Best part about following this website for over a decade and finally becoming a paid subscriber? I now have access to all of the Part 2 presentations from past years!

    Here's a post from 2013 that's relevant:

    The Really, Really Big Picture

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 12:48pm

    #21
    CeZn

    CeZn

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    Joined: Dec 16 2020

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    1

    Nuclear- "Green washing" - degrowth

    Soo,  ok oil supply probably would be "artificially" reduced when is suitable.

    Though in fact oil will be reduced on the long term.

    So lets examine 3 Solutions.

    1) "Green"  energy. It will be massively promoted after the COVID theater ends. Together with the "climate crisis". For sure, we have huge ecologic problems all around the world.  But its insane to only focus on CO2 emmisions.  So every little deplorable will be pushed to reduce his CO2 footprint in order to "save the planet". So we will be made to have and use less(not necessearily wrong)  but it will be the "moral thing" to do. The main issue is that it's Done top-down. Noone really cares about the masses.  The 1% will still fly with their jets. Ok perhaps they will recycled Steel and 1/10 of the gas would be "green".

    It had already proven that Green energy cannot replace oil in the large scale.  In fact despite the high use of green energy CO2 emmisions are more or less the same.  + the Mass destruction of forests and mountains for Wind turbines... U can run but u cannot hide.  "growth"  will find you anywhere.

    2. Nuclear.

    To maintain our enegy overconsumption nuclear seems the only viable alternative on the long term.  There are important risks here also of course but i think its inevitable.

    3. Degrowth

    In fact esp the westerners consume too much energy and material for no reason.  Partly, we really act as  parasites on the planet but not in a symbiotic way clearly.

    Degrowth is necesary.  It can lower our energy demand and reduce the ecologic destruction.

    A mixture of the 3 above Solutions based on grass roots movements would be the ideal. Solar panels and even mid-scale Wind turbines can be useful if used appropriately without destroying our environment.  Eg if they are constructed in really deserted areas or in the top of our buildings.

    * does anyone has good sources on the efficiency of nuclear and the level of threat to the environment?

     

     

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 1:09pm

    #22
    brushhog

    brushhog

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 06 2015

    Posts: 995

    7

    brushhog said:

    " does anyone has good sources on the efficiency of nuclear and the level of threat to the environment?"

    Yes. We have actual historic reality to draw on. Chernobyl...Fukashima..etc. Nuclear power, when everything goes well, is very clean. When everything doesnt go well, its catastrophic.

    History, empirical evidence, and experience show us that things do go wrong. Nuclear "incidents" render huge swaths of the planet uninhabitable, indefinitely.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 1:44pm

    #23
    gkcjrrt

    gkcjrrt

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 20 2016

    Posts: 75

    1

    Trying to understand the thesis

    Having a hard time understanding why any price spike in oil is due to anything other than (mostly) supply chain disruptions caused by COVID and therefore is likely to be transitory.  It seems to me that the thesis of much higher and sustained oil prices is predicated on forecasted increased demand based on rapid economic growth, which I don't see happening.

    I can see the price spiking short term due to supply and maybe stay high due to money debasement, but don't see the demand side materializing -at least organically.  Before COVID, the economies of the world were generally in slow down and crude was at ~$60.  What has changed?

     

     

     

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 2:47pm

    #24
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2909

    17

    easy crude is gone

    Based on my review of the numbers: the easy crude is gone.  Chris is correct.  The Oligarchy wants to save the remaining oil (going forward, extracted at great expense) for use in their private jets.  Everything else is theater.  I mean, that's reductive, but - I think - largely correct.

    The "climate" narrative is all about saving the remaining oil.  "Climate change" is all about reducing all forms of energy consumption by the Plebes.  This is a positive framing - "save the planet" - vs the negative framing: "we're running out of oil!"

    I remember the "running out of oil" narrative from the 2008-time period (PEAK OIL!!!), because it sure drove hoarding behavior. The new framing - "save the planet" - constructs a competition to reduce "carbon emissions."  The desired outcome among the Plebes: "I'm virtuous - I'm not 'emitting carbon'."  This framing attempts to transform society into an intra-Plebe-competition to maximum virtue: "I'm saving the planet via self-lockdown."

    I think its pretty smart actually.  Well, minus the "NO TREATMENTS FOR YOU" psychopathy.  And the "Children of the Plebes Must Take The Shot Or ELSE!"  Those don't seem so beneficial.

    But - what are you gonna do?  Oligarchs gonna Oligarch.  Our lives really aren't real to them at all.

    And those private jets don't run on vapor.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 4:23pm

    #25
    islandraider

    islandraider

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    Joined: Apr 13 2020

    Posts: 48

    1

    Tess Lawrie

    The ivermectin meta-analysis by Tess’s group was released. I am not able to post links right now, but Trial Site News has an article.

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 4:45pm

    Jim H

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1671

    2

    Tess Lawrie paper here...

    Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Infectio... : American Journal of Therapeutics (lww.com)

    https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Abstract/9000/Ivermectin_for_Prevention_and_Treatment_of.98040.aspx

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 7:55pm

    LBL

    LBL

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    Posts: 456

    0

    LBL said:

    >>  1. Hand saws to replace my chainsaw [ I love silky saws ]

     

    my neighbor just cut his leg with a chainsaw.

    On the thigh, about 3/4 inch deep.

    And he has 40 years' experience using chainsaws.

     

    I wanted to do a test cut using a hand saw.  I cut a tree about 12 inches diameter that someone else had cut before.  A non-rotted Doug fir very tall stump I guess, about 50 feet tall.

     

    I used a ladder and cut it about 10 feet off the ground.  I thought the bottom part might come in handy, like for supporting a tree room.

     

    It took about a 1/2 hour.  I guess I was about 58 when I did it.

     

    Having the right & SHARP saw makes a big difference.

    I think we need special tools, including liquid fuels like gasoline, to help move big loads of logs.

    But I've heard too many accidents involving experienced people, with chainsaws.

     

    One of the guys at the gym ran into a piece of metal and the saw ran up and ended severing his bicep.  His wife, who was a nurse, sewed it back in place as a starter move.

    A chain saw is a hell of a lot of power.  I feel uncomfortable having that much cutting power near me without a serious partition  in between.

    (Just ask Dexter !  terrible dark TV wise-crack)

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 8:32pm

    #28
    AlvezPopinov

    AlvezPopinov

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 10 2021

    Posts: 60

    0

    chainsaws

    Saws are better. I sustaned a head injury from a chainsaw. My old lady was chasing me with one. I tripped and fell on concrete and hurt my head real bad while running away from her. When she saw the blood on the sidewalk, she lost control of the chainsaw and almost cut her toes off by acident.

    I never saw it coming. (that is a play on words)

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 11:15pm

    #29
    Rodster

    Rodster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 22 2016

    Posts: 52

    3

    Guest Request

    Chris, how about doing another podcast with Gail Tverberg?

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  • Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - 11:51pm

    #30
    islandraider

    islandraider

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    Joined: Apr 13 2020

    Posts: 48

    4

    Thank you, Jiml

    Thank you Jim for the link! I am on this damn tablet for another couple of days.  Let us hope this study moves the f’n needle a bit! Taibbi has also taken up the fight! Two articles in the last couple of days. One on Dr Pierre Kory and one on the censorship of Bret Weinstein.  Please consider subscribing to Matt Taibbi’s sub stack.  Encouraging him!  He could be a great resource in this fight & we desperately need media voices.  Sorry I cannot provide links... please seek out Matt’s latest & please help encourage him to go get his damn Pulitzer.  It is there for the taking...

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  • Sun, Jun 20, 2021 - 10:39am

    brushhog

    brushhog

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    Joined: Oct 06 2015

    Posts: 995

    4

    Chainsaws

    LBL, you are right about chainsaws I think years ago I read that chainsaws were one of the top causes of household accidents.

    The thing is, I heat completely with wood...that takes about 6 good cords. While I could, theoretically, cut split and stack my wood by hand it would take a level of time and energy that would have to be taken away from something else.

    Years ago the old homesteads were worked by lots of people which is why they had big families back in the day. A great set of historic treasures can be found in the works of Laura Ingles Wilder about homesteading and small farming back in the 1800's both on the frontier [ Little House ] and on a small dairy farm in upstate NY [ "Farmer Boy" which recounts the life and times of her husband Almanzo [?] Wilder ].

    Anyway, my point is that the work was divided between many hands. Modern families are smaller and one man can only do so much. Luckily we have the modern equipment to make up for it...unfortunately, that all relies on fuel.

    Ive thought quite a bit about how I would manage my homestead in the absence of fuel. We're talking about cutting splitting and stacking ALOT of wood by hand especially because we'd be cooking with wood. We'd need at least a couple of cow/calf combos and one good horse. That would be about 6 acres of hay, cut, dried and stored. We'd need a garden and it would have to be turned over by hand [ heavy hoe/spade ]. Ever turn a garden by hand? I turned a 30x30 plot over by hand once and it was BALLS.

    I think with me and my wife [ who's young strong and capable ] we could manage it but we'd probably just be getting by. If we had a couple of strong sons and a daughter? It would be like hitting the lottery in that kind of world.

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  • Sun, Jun 20, 2021 - 10:46am

    #32
    MGRS

    MGRS

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    Joined: Feb 28 2013

    Posts: 135

    14

    Art Berman's summer 2021 oil supply shortage - where is it?

    So I remember Art Berman on PP last year sometime, and my general takeaway was that years of low capital investment (mainly starting around 2015) by the oil companies, plus pandemic shocks, would lead to higher oil prices in 2021.  I recall that being the general narrative here too.  Then a few months ago, I heard him on Eric Townsend's Macro Voices kind of rolling that thesis back.

    Here we are a year later, and gas prices are up, but not crazy ($3.18 per gallon here).  And here's another prediction for oil prices spiking "next year."

    I'm not being difficult, just trying to be intellectually honest and rigorous, as I know I have a bias toward "doom is right around the corner!"  As I suspect many here do.  But it's hard to make the case to friends and family when I made the case last year, and it doesn't appear to be coming true (yet?), and the current video does not address why that is the case.  And I can probably go back 10 years on this site and find similar posts of impending doom.  Did something change?  Was it delayed somehow?  Was there some factor that wasn't accounted for at the time?

    I'd love to see Peak Prosperity be more intellectually rigorous rather than pushing a narrative.  I know we can do it, as we did it all of last year during lockdowns when we were forced to constantly flex as new info was presented.

    (Btw I agree with the video and most of the above posts - just trying to think clearly through my own cognitive biases)

     

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  • Mon, Jun 21, 2021 - 12:24pm

    Stone Walker

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    Stone Walker said:

    @dreinmund

    That's a good movie.  Another one, if you haven't seen it, is called "A crude awakening, life after the oil crash"  I could say it was somewhat life changing when I saw it.  Finally a logical explanation of fossil fuels.  At the time I was living in oil rich Alberta and everyone there always told me oil will never run out (especially not in Alberta anyway) , they just buy from OPEC to use there's up first (but it'll never run out?)  After that I started down the energy rabbit hole, few years later after the GFC My brother sent me a link to the crash course and it was explained even better.

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  • Mon, Jun 21, 2021 - 12:31pm

    #34
    FooBarr

    FooBarr

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    Posts: 131

    1

    YGTSM! I can't find them anywhere!!!!!!

    OMG!  The horror....I've been looking all over and can't find them anywhere!

    I've tried google, Amazon, Ebay, nada, el-zilcho.  I drove to Target, Walmart, Tractor Supply.  Dang it, gar nichts, waste of gas.

    I just can't find me a quality "Honey Badger Hat" for the big shing-ding this weekend at PolyFarms.  I'm going to feel so out of place, sigh.  Maybe some smart entrepreneur might have some for sale there...I'd really dig one in Kubota orange....

    About the only thing I could find is a bunch of lavender-colored dress shirts and cheap dinner jackets with puffy shoulder pads.  I thought about it, but then that'd probably be overkill for the farm and probably wouldn't match my open-toed birkenstocks anyway.

     

    ;^)

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  • Mon, Jun 21, 2021 - 1:12pm

    Kathy

    Kathy

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    Posts: 623

    2

    Funny I can’t find one either

    I’m looking for John Deere Green

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  • Mon, Jun 21, 2021 - 11:42pm

    #36
    EddieLarry

    EddieLarry

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 04 2020

    Posts: 174

    2

    Venezuela looks to boost production

    Venezuela is investing in crude oil production recovery and aims to boost its output four times by the end of the year, to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami, a close ally to Nicolas Maduro, told Bloomberg in a recent interview.

    “Without any financing, with our own money, we’ve been able to invest enough to stop the slide and start a gradual recovery,” El Aissami told Bloomberg.

    Despite the sanctions and despite the severe crisis which became even more severe with the pandemic and plunge in oil prices last year, Venezuela claims it would quadruple its crude oil production and put an end to the incessant lines at all gas stations in the country holding the world’s largest crude oil reserves.

    According to El Aissami, crude oil production in Venezuela has now exceeded 700,000 bpd, up from less than 400,000 bpd in the summer of last year when output plunged in the wake of the pandemic and the crash in oil prices.”

    See https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Claims-It-Can-Quadruple-Its-Oil-Production-By-The-End-Of-2021.html

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  • Tue, Jun 22, 2021 - 9:04am

    Blackjack

    Blackjack

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    Posts: 3

    1

    Blackjack said:

    MGRS,

     

    Just because it didn't happen yet, doesn't mean it's a false prediction.   I'm grateful for the years I've had to prepare.  I've also come to realize the decline will be gradual and not off a cliff.  It's only hypothetical until it happens to you.

     

     

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  • Tue, Jun 22, 2021 - 9:20am

    RandomMike

    RandomMike

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    Joined: Mar 12 2020

    Posts: 388

    0

    RandomMike said:

    Brushhog: https://www.amazon.com/Milwaukee-Lithium-Ion-Brushless-Cordless-Tool-Only/dp/B07QFFVGLR/ref=asc_df_B07QFFVGLR/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=366290009890&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12119919464938025248&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=t&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9008249&hvtargid=pla-987073848232&psc=1&tag=&ref=&adgrpid=80266838870&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvadid=366290009890&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12119919464938025248&hvqmt=&hvdev=t&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9008249&hvtargid=pla-987073848232

    Milwaukee M18 chainsaw, solar panels, 120v ac inverter

    Can do most anything any normal chainsaw can do, and free power forever!

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  • Tue, Jun 22, 2021 - 10:47am

    #39
    pyranablade

    pyranablade

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    Joined: Nov 08 2010

    Posts: 258

    1

    MGRS

    Yes, you make a good point MGRS. James Howard Kunstler has addressed why his predictions of doom circa 2005 didn't come to pass: Oil investors lost a lot of money, but they made fracking possible. It was a case of bad investments being hyped that allowed society to keep running on the business as usual plan. Art Berman, I imagine would (or at least should) be able to explain why his shorter term prediction didn't come to pass.

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  • Thu, Jun 24, 2021 - 5:50am

    #40
    skipr

    skipr

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    Joined: Jan 09 2016

    Posts: 210

    1

    inflation vs global warming

    A collapsing economy will pale in comparison to the explosive growth in global warming when the aerosols produced by the burning of fossil fuels disappear (aka global dimming).  Right after 911 average temperatures in the lower 48 shot up by a degree in just a couple of days when the airlines were shut down.  I bet it was a lot worst this last year.  There's even a Harvard physicist proposing burning a lot of coal to increase global dimming. When we run out of it it will be game over for all life on planet earth since there will be much greater amount of CO2 in the atmosphere along with the feedback loops going into hyperdrive.  Here's an 9 year old BBC documentary about it.  https://www.dailymotion.com/video/xudm8n

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  • Wed, Jun 30, 2021 - 6:01am

    easysteelchina

    easysteelchina

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    Joined: May 28 2021

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    easysteelchina said:

    Easy Steel China is a leading China Hastelloy alloy supplier .
    We believe in credit and quality first. we offer in a variety of formats including pipe
    fittings, bar, sheet, expansion joints. wire, plate, forgings, and more.

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