• Blog

    What Does A Silver Panic Look Like?

    Veteran precious metals dealer recounts past buying frenzies
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, February 2, 2021, 8:08 AM

Has the #silversqueeze already fizzled out?

Hard to know at the moment. Prices are being hammered down this morning as the CME hiked COMEX margin requirements by 18%.

But according to this interview last night with Robert Mish, an independent precious metals dealer with nearly 60 years of experience in the industry, inventories have been overwhelmed by the wave of retail buyers making purchases over the past few days.

As a result, the price of physical silver is currently MUCH higher than paper silver.

If this buying pressure continues, he sees the price of paper silver being pushed up into the $35-50/oz range in the near term. But that’s only if the army of retail buyers keeps at it.

How will we know if the #silversqueeze army is successful in creating a true silver shortage?

Robert shares his war stories from previous panics in the ’60, ’70s and 1980 to give us a sense of what one will look like if it indeed happens:

 [ Watch & Download This Video on Vimeo ]

Related content
» More

35 Comments

  • Tue, Feb 02, 2021 - 8:33am

    #1
    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 277

    11

    The Breaking of the COMEX

    I have only watched a few minutes of this so far. I would like to correct one term.This is not a panic in Silver, nor a squeeze, this is the logical FAILURE of a corrupt system to control prices ILLEGALLY using the futures market - through infinite paper supply - ie you can sell short silver that you don't have ad infinitum - but you had better have powerful friends in high places and deep pockets. When you can not source real physical silver yet the futures prices decline 8+ percent February 2nd - this does not happen in the real world of commodities.

    What we are witnessing is the breakdown of the Comex futures market - and dare I say the complete breakdown of other related futures markets - please remember that the size of the futures markets DWARF the size of the real markets - so when they break - That's All Folks.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Feb 02, 2021 - 9:02am

    #2

    Mark_BC

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 563

    0

    Mark_BC said:

    It appears that there's Ag available in Canada on the retail level with low premiums. I'm not getting excited yet. Retail investors buying coins won't break the market.

    vbce.ca

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Feb 02, 2021 - 9:48am

    #3
    brushhog

    brushhog

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Oct 06 2015

    Posts: 740

    17

    Russian backed, white supremist, Nazi silver panic

    Fake mainstream is LITERALLY trying to tie this to Nazis, Russians, and the KKK. You know the elites are panicking when they pull those cards.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Feb 02, 2021 - 10:36am

    #4
    wotthecurtains

    wotthecurtains

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 838

    12

    wotthecurtains said:

    I remember one time when gold went up quite a bit one of Canada's papers had a headline like: "Investing in Gold?  Putin thanks you".

     

    Was all about how gold investors are enriching the worlds greatest monster.   This is something anyone investing "against the house" needs to be aware of.  You will be ridiculed as an astonishing moron until you start winning at which point you will be vicious and despicable.

    dehumanizing is the first step

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Feb 02, 2021 - 2:07pm

    #5
    macro2682

    macro2682

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2009

    Posts: 407

    1

    Manufactured Reddit Movement

    I think the Reddit call to arms on silver was manufactured by interests that wanted them out of GME.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Feb 02, 2021 - 2:40pm

    #6
    agnes xyz

    agnes xyz

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 21 2020

    Posts: 193

    0

    Who profits

    This is not being operated by a bunch of ignorant amateurs. Here's who profited from the GameStop run-up:

    GameStop Short Squeeze: These Are the Big Wall Street Players Who Stood to Make Billions

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Feb 02, 2021 - 6:35pm

    #7
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 146

    1

    The metals....complicated

    In 1974 the mechanism of pricing gold/silver changed to the derivatives (futures) market.  The intent was to purposely deter physical purchases.  Since 1980 demand for the PMs has been met by ever increasing paper claims for the metals.  The expanding paper claims has greatly limited prices.  This is the main area of the manipulation of the prices for the metals.  No one knows what the ratio of paper claims to physical metal is, but consensus estimates are > 75-100:1.  Of note, the derivative price on a highly leveraged asset can go down near $0 while the physical asset goes no offer.  It can be counterintuitive.  Don’t ever be fooled into thinking the current metals market functions off of supply & demand, it’s anything but.  The current pricing scheme will only be broken if:  1) the COMEX or LBMA can not meet the demands from futures traders who stand for physical delivery, 2) the US decides to change the current structure of the USD (as suppressing PM prices is fundamental to the Petrodollar after leaving the gold standard in 1971), or 3) the rest of the world...China/Russia/Saudi Arabia/other oil exporters/G20 revalues gold one day.  The BIS Basel 3 rule changes included moving gold to a tier 1 asset on par with treasuries from a tier 3 asset. The Bank of International Settlements is the central bank for all the central banks of the world.  This was first officially proposed in 2014, accepted in 2019, and I believe it will be officially implemented January 2022 but the date keeps changing.  It should be noted the Central Banks gold holdings are at all-time highs as are Russia’s & China’s.  The rest of the world is also rapidly de-dollarizing.  Basel 3 changes also included increasing allocated gold requirements for the bullion banks, something the LBMA is not happy about.  These rules takes effect at the end of June 2021. One would think this rule should cause some tightness in the physical markets, but that’s unclear IMO.  Any type of gold revaluation would likely occur over a weekend not unlike President Nixon announcing the US was going off the gold standard in 1971, or something like a Plaza Accord 2.0.  IMO it is highly unlikely there will ever be a gold standard again, but gold could very much play a role in a SDR or as a neutral reserve asset to balance any trade imbalances.

    I speak of mainly gold in the aforementioned, but so goes gold pricing silver pricing roughly follows.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 1:04am

    #8
    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 277

    2

    Arbitrage

    You argue lots of very good points.

    I don't know if the current movement of buying physical precious metals will put the banks in difficulty.

    What I do follow (as in watch) is the relationship between stocks and gold; stocks and silver. Since December 4th 2017 gold has kept pace with the gains in stocks to this day - same thing with silver. So WSB (WallStreetBets) or not - TPTB can not seem AT THIS POINT IN TIME to alter this relationship in any significant way. If anything, following the news, you could say that buying precious metals is "In the news". Can TPTB keep pumping out enough Dollars to keep stocks from back-tracking? Don't know.

    But the prospect of physical pricing in precious metals being broken from the imposed futures pricing of precious metals is palpable for those like me who have been patiently waiting for this "moment". The arbitrage function between the physical market and the futures market is in difficulty. Arbitrage being the function of market makers to "turn" a profit from market discrepancies selling in one market buying in the other - this is most commonly is done in conjunction with an options trade - netting out for zero risk (but yes counterparty risk) yielding "an interest rate return". This was called a Conversion. Breaking the market would happen when arbitrage no longer is worth the risk.  Mr Mish talks about this in the end of the podcast - that he would buy for delivery - trouble is delivery LBMA is becoming more and more complicated. Wait and See (like we say here in France).

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 1:50am

    #9
    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 28 2017

    Posts: 2

    2

    planfortomorrow said:

    Silver will NOT be allowed to go up, and everything that can be done to suppress prices will be done. This game is owned and operated by some Big Time monsters so try and keep everything in balance Folks. I am happy for those though that have increased your wealth however. Bitcoin as an idea is the way to go. I have no real clue still how it works and haven't since Jim H. first brought it to our attention when it was like $17 dollars a share!!! but, it has caught a bid that's for sure and people are rich for owning it. I believe it is headed higher, much higher, an order of magnitude but I honestly don't get it still. Peace BOB

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 5:10am

    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 146

    4

    Agree

    I agree that until the money system is changed, internally or externally, the US gov will fight true price discovery of the PMs with everything they have.  As the nuclear core (US debt market) of the financial system melts down people are trying to find any lifeboat they can to escape.  Foreigners have largely funded treasuries for the past 50 years but this past year, facilitated by Covid, the buyers have vanished.  Thus, the Fed/Treasury is doing all they can to try and herd capital into treasuries.  Long duration assets without counterparty risks (BTC, gold, silver) are now a huge threat to what was recently considered the safest & most liquid asset class in the world:  the US debt market.  That $37T market is rapidly being revealed for what it is.

    The current predicament with the current money system is that Russia & China have now weaponized the USD back towards the US.  They are taking printed USDs & gobbling up tangible real commodities along with making major investments around the world.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 8:23am

    #11
    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 28 2017

    Posts: 2

    1

    planfortomorrow said:

    I have been studying the "Modern Monetary Theory" and many top economists have been harking this theory in government and a new way of thinking has taken shape. I am not qualified to speak of it yet but, it intrigues the hell out of me. If it takes hold everything we thought before will change and we with it. Peace

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 10:01am

    #12

    Montana Native

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 184

    6

    Silver and control

    Interesting and small discussion going on here. I've been a silver bug for 12 years, and it's a lonely road no doubt. It certainly is important for the government to keep PM prices in check do to trust. At this point our monetary system is a trust based system backed by our military in my opinion. In a country nearing 28 trillion in debt, an 8 trillion dollar FED balance sheet, and a future with mass unemployment and endless money printing, the trust boat starts leaking at some point. Is this move in silver that crack? Hard to say right now, but I know thousands if not millions of people have learned more about fiat money and real money in just the last week. I have several eggs in the silver basket and generally see it as something I hold with a potential to greatly surpass inflation. Crypto the last few months has made my PM's look like dinosaurs. I'm not sure where those are headed truly, but glad I finally jumped on the train last year. The spread between paper price and physical in paper is what tells the story for me. $7 to $13 per oz premium over spot on rounds to Eagles. Pretty sure that was $1 to about $5 when I first started buying. If consumer inflation takes off, physical silver could do extremely well. I'm not letting mine go at prices anywhere close to here. Will the new buyers have diamond hands? That is the question.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 10:11am

    #13
    karemlla

    karemlla

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 13 2021

    Posts: 10

    0

    karemlla said:

    https://www.takiifnet.com

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 10:32am

    #14

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1550

    8

    Silver tidbits...

    Like Montana Native, I have been into Silver since the GFC, i.e. about 12 years.  I have no intention of selling anything until and unless I think that the price is truly reflective of a balance between physical supply and physical demand, i.e. a normal functioning market.  It is nothing of the sort today.

    There is still some chance that physical supply shortages rippling through the supply chain now will fester into something more dramatic.  I noticed for instance that Texas Metals had some (relatively) low premium mixed 100 oz. bars in stock last night at about a $4 premium..  now gone again;

        I also saw this which might indicate there is stress remaining out there in Silverland?

    Update:  100 oz bars with $4 premium back in stock at Texas PM's.....

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 10:58am

    #15
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 146

    2

    Mannarino knows

    Greg Mannarino knows.

    Also, big bond auctions next week & higher yields attract more buyers.  Would not be surprised in the least bit if there was a big metals smash in the futures market between now & next week.  I’m not giving any trading advice & I’m not trading any of this.  Just interesting.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 11:29am

    #16

    Mark_BC

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 563

    0

    Mark_BC said:

    Mannarino gets insider tips

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 12:10pm

    #17
    dadzcats

    dadzcats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 07 2011

    Posts: 56

    13

    I think I have finally lost all hope about silver

    We are long time PM holders. The somewhat organized effort to help silver break its chains was quickly and predictably extinguished  (with more pain to come if JPM has anything to do with it) and with it the nascent spark of excitement I had. When I listened to this podcast  the words  "hope" and "maybe" and "could"  translated to my ears into  - "don't hold your breath".  That and recent events have, after all these many years of putting disappointment behind each time silver got slammed, finally destroyed the remnants of optimism I had left about them.   I'm glad to have this community  and hope you don't mind that I take some shelter here to vent a little.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 12:29pm

    #18
    tbp

    tbp

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 12 2020

    Posts: 1075

    1

    tbp said:

    ^ Haha, well I did worse. My worst ever transaction was buying a bunch of silver near the ATH for crypto when it was cheap... Would you like some silver at 1000x loss? 😛

    If you have no crypto though, why not sell half of the dead weight metal?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 12:35pm

    #19
    EddieLarry

    EddieLarry

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 04 2020

    Posts: 174

    1

    Is there a shortage of silver anywhere on Earth?

    For silver to go yp a lot doe#n’t there have to be a shortage?

    This may seem a trick qiestion but I don’t mean it that way.  I just don’t think that there is any shortage of silver.  Best to all!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 2:35pm

    #20
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 146

    2

    Trick?

    Silver is called a precious metal for a reason...it’s precious as in rare.  In the debt fueled monetary madness where all financial assets are being propped up by massive currency creation things that a rare will do well financially...in the end.  Rare assets: fertile farm land (ask CM about that), precious metals, rare earth elements, rare artwork, etc.  Silver is a long duration (rare) asset without counterparty risks with also is a hedge against currency debasement, and has tremendous industrial usefulness as it’s the best conductor of electricity of all the metals.  As PP has demonstrated many times over t the years this world is past peak production of almost all commodities and it requires more energy & effort to obtain...deeper & deeper mines in more obscure locations, etc.  The low lying fruit has been plucked.  We aren’t running out of oil or silver; the return on investment is going down fairly rapidly.

    And yes, there is a “shortage” in the context of the paper claims of silver exceeding actual physical silver by > 70+:1

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 3:19pm

    #21
    NV_Jana

    NV_Jana

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 09 2020

    Posts: 54

    7

    Silver Price Increase Is a Double Edged Sword

    There's another side to the silver yo-yo. I've been a jewelry artist and silversmith for the last 15 years. It was running about $7.50 an ounce at that time.  I'm very aware of the constant fluctuation of per ounce valuation.  Silver goes up and silver goes down. I've never been particularly happy when it goes up because it costs more to make jewelry and it's harder to sell it. It's always a question' "Do you price a product based on the old value or the new one?"  The silver providers raise the cost at every jump in per ounce value and rarely decrease it back to where it used to be - even if the value technically goes down.  When what you have created is worth less than the melt price, it's pretty depressing.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 4:24pm

    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 1178

    4

    Wow, you have a profession.

    Myself and my children will always wish to decorate our partners with precious metals. We would always be willing to barter/pay for many delightful forms of precious metal decorations, esp. when from a known entity. Build your fidelity, may all who know you be impressed.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 6:09pm

    #23
    MGRS

    MGRS

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2013

    Posts: 185

    2

    Silver jewelery

    NV Jana, post a link to your work please!  Maybe some of us silverbugs would like some. 🙂

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 7:07pm

    #24

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 7556

    9

    An update from silver dealer Robert Mish

    Robert Mish, whom I interviewed in the video above, just sent me this update on his latest observations/thoughts:

    aftermath:

    Monday was overwhelming while the price of paper silver was bid up over $30 at one point.  Physical silver was either non-available or limited amounts at $4 to $10 premiums over paper.

    Tuesday morning remained busy while paper trading returned to the $26+ area of the last Friday.  Physical remained unavailable or priced at elevated premium for delayed delivery.

    Wednesday much a normal day, paper silver flirted with the $27 area.  The social media trader crowd was confused and quiet.  Astute veteran buyers/investors returned to the market seeking silver in any form within reason, live or delayed.   The picture on the coin or bar, and the size, was less a concern than just getting a locked commitment.

    Outlook:  There probably will be at least one more attempt to move the market price higher, perhaps to as much as $35 by the time March COMEX contracts are due for delivery notice Feb 26.   Resistance is first $28-30 which was Mondays range of heavy trading.   The bull strength will likely come from the closing of hedge shorts plus new large spec longs who will now be more confident that awareness of silvers longterm prospects has been brought to the attention of a wider investor audience.   Once long call options expire Feb 23, institutions holding COMEX 1000 oz bars who may have sold the calls against their positions will have less reason to do it again considering the preview this week of the power of grassroots investment campaignssome that may get smarter, more frequent and less stoppable (short of govt intervention) as time goes by.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 11:47pm

    maharahr

    maharahr

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2021

    Posts: 1

    0

    Best SEO company in egypt

    https://digitalguys.net/best-seo-company-in-egypt/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Feb 03, 2021 - 11:53pm

    builmix

    builmix

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2021

    Posts: 1

    0

    microsilica suppliers in saudi arabia

    http://builmix.com/microsilica-suppliers-in-saudi-arabia/

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Feb 04, 2021 - 1:08am

    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 277

    1

    Thanks for opening this discussion

    Dear Adam,

    I find it a "sign" that discrepancies are not used by marker makers to turn a profit. Yesterday (Wednesday) I looked on Sprott - their Silver Maple Leaf was trading at a 32% premium to spot. Granted a player with a neutral position who can't source physical can not arbitrage - but when a premium of that size does not get used in a functioning market - trading futures and options, that seems to me to be a sign of a "broken" market.

    Granted the Silver market is readjusting to a "shock" - so in time the volatility normally should dampen.

    I do not see how JPM can knock down the physical price of Silver unless they plan on selling some of their physical supplies - this was suggested by Greg Mannarino - suggesting they will sell PAPER silver. They could sell huge quantites of call options at a 30 dollar strike price stopping the rally.

    The Banks / Central Banks (of Western nations) are in an all out war on precious metals - nothing new to the gold bugs.

    Any comments on the above points would be appreciated. Personally I am looking for a "discussion", not some sort of They will never let it happen statement.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Feb 04, 2021 - 3:57am

    #28
    Hans

    Hans

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Aug 09 2017

    Posts: 154

    0

    Hans said:

    I can't imagine suppressing the silver price is to keep up the appearance that everything is okay with fiat currency. This continues until fiat currencies collapse. Either they do this to privately buy as much cheap physical silver as possible in anticipation of the collapse, or they are in a paper ponzi scheme that they cannot get out of because otherwise the house of cards will collapse. I think both.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Feb 04, 2021 - 6:18am

    #29
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 146

    2

    Almost predictable

    Long bond yields up - check

    USD up - check

    (paper) gold/silver smashed - check

    Big treasury auctions next week....not coincidence.

    Next week after Tuesday/Wednesday looking like might be a good physical buying opportunity.

    BTW, there are alternatives to PMs for financial benefit.  Agriculture is one such area.  True supply/demand is more difficult to manipulate in the these areas in these hyperfinancialized engineered markets we live in today.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Thu, Feb 04, 2021 - 10:37am

    #30
    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 277

    0

    Please someone report the news

    OK They knocked the paper price of silver down to, in Canadian Dollars, 33.63 on Sprott Silver Maple Leafs are offered at 45.30 CAD - time 19:32 Paris - a 35% premium.

    Big deal - you can't get delivery at the futures prices are quoted at. Totally fake, and irrelevant - but alot of people are going to say - told ya so.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Feb 05, 2021 - 12:46am

    #31
    MonK

    MonK

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 13 2020

    Posts: 6

    0

    A Reserve Bank Admits they Cause Asset Price Inflation

    Look! A reserve bank actually admitting they cause asset price increases by printing money 🤑

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300223358/reserve-bank-repeatedly-warned-government-money-printing-would-lead-to-house-price-inflation

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sat, Feb 06, 2021 - 10:50pm

    #32
    serials

    serials

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 22 2021

    Posts: 3

    0

    Desi Serials

    Ghum Hai Kisi Ke Pyar Mein Hindi Desi Serial watch online. Ghum Hai Kisi Ke Pyar Mein
    hotstar free episodes watch online in hd.

    Ghum Hai Kisi Ke Pyar Mein watch online
    Ghum Hai Kisi Ke Pyar Mein Full Episode
    Ghum Hai Kisi Ke Pyar Mein All Episodes
    Download Ghum Hai Kisi Ke Pyar Mein
    Ghum Hai Kisi Ke Pyar Mein watch Live

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Feb 07, 2021 - 2:14am

    #33
    CrLaan

    CrLaan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 05 2010

    Posts: 106

    0

    CrLaan said:

    Gold last 15 years plus 10% annually. Forget the silverhype.

    everything according to silver is a waste of time. Your CB has silver?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Sun, Feb 07, 2021 - 2:22am

    CrLaan

    CrLaan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 05 2010

    Posts: 106

    0

    CrLaan said:

    Silver is a long duration (rare) asset without counterparty risks

    Gold is free of VAT. Silver not. #counterparty

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Feb 08, 2021 - 10:53am

    #35
    Blaggers

    Blaggers

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Oct 19 2013

    Posts: 360

    0

    Canadian Venture Exchange Making a Bullish Break

    The TSX Venture is full of junior resource stocks (silver, gold, base metals etc).

    Today it broke to a new 8 year high.

    It's also recently broken out of a Descending Wedge pattern going back 12 years.

    Here's the monthly chart.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/mugKKzMn

    Login or Register to post comments