Video Description

Good news for Peak Prosperity subscribers — davefairtex has returned to regularly scheduled programming with his weekly market updates!

In this introductory interview, Dave sits down with Chris to discuss how he approaches markets, the early signals he looks for, and what to expect from his weekly market updates.

Watch or listen to the interview below and find Dave’s first market update on falling gold prices here.

Be sure to check the home page of the website each week for Dave’s updates!

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11 Comments

  • Wed, Jul 28, 2021 - 10:44pm

    #1

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1559

    6

    Welcome back Dave!





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  • Wed, Jul 28, 2021 - 10:58pm

    #2
    FooBarr

    FooBarr

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 21 2010

    Posts: 125

    3

    Dave's secret sauce...

    Found it over in the condiment section...

    I had to watch this video twice and then reread Dave's Sunday post.  Slowly getting a clue, and also spent some time at Candlestick school:

    https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks

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  • Wed, Jul 28, 2021 - 11:46pm

    #3
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2729

    4

    candlestick signals

    The guy I used as my tutor for candlesticks actually responded to an email to me about candlesticks.  He suggested they have limited utility in detecting trend changes.  He prefers "patterns."  I thought that was amusing since he'd spent a ton of time writing up a site about candles.  Smart guy.

    I've done a large analysis of candlesticks.  It is hard for me to tease out the specifics of the candle itself (length of the lower shadow etc) from where the candle appears in the overall price trend.  My neural net does this for me.  Some candles are pretty useless except at rare intervals - doji candles for instance.

    Candles themselves have a "population" chance of marking a low, the model itself has an accuracy (how often does it get "close" to predicting the reversal in candles it hasn't seen before), there's the population "size" the model was trained on, there is the rating the model gives a particular candle (where 0.0 = model concludes "no reversal", and 0.999= model is as sure as it gets of a reversal), which yields an overall % chance of a reversal.  I ignore ratings 0.00-0.02: there are a lot of them.  For bullish reversals, I call that "a bearish continuation."

    So for yesterday's "long black" silver candle:

    SI.CW 0.00 bull.long.black pred 19.3% model acc 73% (n=2620) pop 17.6% (n=37917)

    This says "long blacks" in general have an 18% chance of marking the 8-day low.  That's pretty bad.  This one: rating 0.00, which the model assessed had a 19% chance of marking the low.  My shorthand: "a bearish continuation."  Model was seen to be 73% accurate on the 2620 never-seen-before candles used to test it out, and 37,917 long blacks were used to train this model up.

    Of course the candle models don't know about open interest, or prices of SPX, or other things that can drive the actual silver price.  They're mostly trained on equity market data. I had to be careful not to take more than 10 candles per day during training.  (Turns out, pretty much every equity prints the same candle pattern on reversal days, and you don't want to over-represent).

    Regarding silver, I'm more optimistic because of the very low OI.  I bought more silver in the afternoon.

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  • Thu, Jul 29, 2021 - 8:59am

    #4
    gadams

    gadams

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2009

    Posts: 4

    2

    Next video

    Can the next video go through each section of the update and explain it and the financial terms used? Sort of a Chris M format where the report is scrolled through and spots highlighted as they are explained.

    I followed the daily reports for several years and found it informative even if I didn't understand it all.

    It would also be useful to have links to good definitions of words built into the report. That way guys like me that look this stuff up once and forget it could have an easy reference.

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  • Thu, Jul 29, 2021 - 9:36am

    #5

    Tycer

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Apr 26 2009

    Posts: 388

    1

    Just absolutely loved this.

    Dave,

    So good to hear your voice. What a beautiful picture I have now painted of you. I truly appreciate the way you think.
    Thank you so much for sharing your valuable time with us.
    Kind regards,

    Tycer

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  • Thu, Jul 29, 2021 - 11:24am

    #6
    Canuck21

    Canuck21

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Aug 10 2020

    Posts: 812

    0

    sugar / foreclosures

    Great discussion, thanks! Two mutually unrelated response questions that I would love for Dave to answer if he has time:

    1. A precious metals analyst I follow has said that silver follows sugar, so it is important to watch the sugar price. Any thoughts on that?

    2. Please could you go into more detail about the mechanics of how it would work if they want to crash the property market -- you said people would suddenly not be able to make their mortgage payments and so banks would foreclose and prices would crash so the bankers can buy. What would create a situation where people could not make their mortgage payments? Thanks!

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  • Thu, Jul 29, 2021 - 11:56am

    #7

    Arthur Robey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2010

    Posts: 1328

    0

    Nobody uses money

    on the UFOs.

    It seems to me that we are  being guided towards a centrally planned economy.

    What money gives you is freedom to make choices. This Freedom is not a value that the Central planners hold.

    Anal Swab has already told you; "You'll own Nothing".

    Freya said: 6. If ever it should happen that one of your people should sell his freedom, he is not of you, he is a bastard. I counsel you to expel him and his mother from the land. Repeat this to your children morning, noon, and night, till they think of it in their dreams.

    The Oera Linda.

    Ergo: He is not one of us.

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  • Thu, Jul 29, 2021 - 12:09pm

    #8

    Arthur Robey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2010

    Posts: 1328

    0

    Catherine Austin Fitts'

    model is that the Banksters have done what Banksters do; they've printed up money. Now they want to go shopping.

    But how to do that without looking like Zimbabwe?

    What's the opposite of inflation?  Deflation.

    Like say; a lockdown.

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  • Thu, Jul 29, 2021 - 3:32pm

    #9
    hail

    hail

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 06 2012

    Posts: 50

    1

    Thanks for download

    I appreciate the download link, thanks

    Oh, and I really appreciate having these contributions from Dave back.  Very much missed them.

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  • Thu, Jul 29, 2021 - 7:32pm

    #10
    agnes xyz

    agnes xyz

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 21 2020

    Posts: 193

    0

    Volume

    Livio,

    Chris' voice was very soft. Dave's voice was loud. I listened with my hand on the volume dial like during a Beethoven symphony. Have you some sort of volume equalizer? All interviews have had a bit of this problem, but this time one sudden loudness startled the cat right off the table.

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  • Thu, Jul 29, 2021 - 10:48pm

    livsez

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 01 2008

    Posts: 37

    3

    livsez said:

    Hi Agnes,

    We did have some sound issues on davefairtex's microphone which took some cleanup and repair work. We will have it all fixed up  for next time.  Cheers, Livio.

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