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Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning  (6/13/19) in the Gulf of Oman, and if hostilities advance we could be facing a ‘black swan’ event. One that changes everything, and divides the world into ‘before’ and ‘after’ periods.

A lot of us are waiting for ‘something’ to happen. We know that there are too many unsustainable trends and practices running and we fall into the “let’s just rip the Band-Aid off” camp.   Some, like myself, have lost faith in the political leadership and institutions and doubt they retain any capacity to attend to anything more than their own selfish interests, let alone manage the difficult tasks ahead rooted as they are in systems theory and managing complexity.

So, let’s get on with it already.  Bring it on.  Black swans are welcome to those who feel a swift kick to the behind is sometimes needed to begin setting things straight.

Like many, I am also conflicted because I also know that getting onto a new path will be disruptive and probably quite economically and financially painful for everyone, myself included.  Hoping for ‘something to break’ and hoping nothing breaks hang in an uneasy balance.

Luckily, my hopes and wishes have nothing to do with what’s going to happen, or when.  I might as well be performing a secret hand ritual before the TV in my living room to ensure that my team’s basketball free-throw goes in.  The dry tinder of the next bonfire was laid down over many years and decades and it will catch fire when it does, no matter how much denial or how many superstitious practices we employ.

When this current period of insane monetary policy, polarizing politics, and ecological destruction suddenly breaks for the worse is unknowable.  It’s going to break when it does.    I hope that’s not for ten years, and I hope that’s tomorrow.  True ambivalence.

Black Swans

A ‘black swan’ event is a term coined by Nassim Taleb which has three characteristics:

  1. It’s unpredictable
  2. It has a massive impact
  3. Afterwards, everyone comes up with an explanation for it

There’s an honorary fourth characteristic which is that virtually no ‘experts’ saw it coming.

Black swan events can be positive or negative.  Here’s an example of an “expert” missing something positive:

I think it’s safe to say that Paul Krugman got that one a tiny bit wrong.

The genesis of the term black swan comes from the (former) western belief that all swans were white.  100% of their experience with swans confirmed that they were all white in color.  However, in 1697 the Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh made it to Australia and discovered black swans.

Once a black swan is seen, or a black swan event occurs, everything falls into a before vs after category.

When it comes to massive, history altering events, while they may be explained in retrospect by earnest historians as having been due to some specific thing, they usually had plenty of dry tinder lying about waiting for a spark.

Many of us learned that WW I was ‘caused’ by an Archduke being shot.  In truth if there hadn’t been many prior years of feuding, bad politics, terrible economic policies, and worse communications absolutely nothing more than an elaborate state funeral would have resulted from the Archduke being shot.  Afterwards everyone assigned a simple explanation to a complex situation because that’s what people do.

Today there’s a similar pile of dry tinder laying about waiting for a spark. There’s too much debt, worsening geopolitics, terrible press and social media stripping away necessary context as a matter of habitual practice, stovepiped information and expertise, and increasingly alarming (if not terrifying) signals from the natural world that the sort of economic growth upon which everything is based cannot continue.

It seems as if the world is waiting for something, a black swan, carrying a bright coal in its beak.

When that time comes virtually none of the experts on TV or at the think tanks will have seen it coming, nearly everyone will be surprised at the impact, and few will grasp the complexities surrounding how all that dry tinder came to be laying about in the first place.

We will all suffer the consequences to varying degrees depending on our financial, physical and emotional preparations, as well as due to luck and random misfortune.

The Strait of Hormuz and Global Debts

So let’s connect a couple of dots which I think have the potential to be the black swan event that changes everything.

The first is the massive pile of debt and impossible-to-meet IOUs that the world’s central banks have enabled.

The more debt you are carrying as a nation, company or individual, the better things have to go for you financially and/or economically.  Debt makes you more vulnerable to shocks.

The world has never been more deeply in debt, nor has it ever had more deeply un(der)funded IOUs in the form of pension and entitlement promises.

This is the financial tinder waiting for a spark:

The nearly $100 trillion increase in global debt since the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis is an unprecedented act.  It was also an act of faith.  One rooted in the idea that global GDP growth would come along and save the day, or at least rationalize if not justify the new massive piles of debt.  In truth, this love affair with debt can be traced back to August 15th 1971 when the world abandoned the gold standard in favor of the idea that debts themselves could be the backing for debt.

It should be noted, that virtually zero “expert economists” are publicly worried about the enormous rise in debts.  If they were, they wouldn’t be publicly known “experts” because nobody would invite them to speak about their ideas.  In a system dependent on exponential credit growth, nobody wants to hear about how that’s a bad long-term idea.

As bad as the debts are, the unfunded liabilities – the IOU’s in this story – are 2x to 4x larger than the debts themselves, depending on the country.

In the US, the entire collective pile – debts plus IOU’s – worked out to a staggering 1100% of GDP in 2017. That’s ~300% for debt and 800% for the underfunded liabilities.

Notice that the debt part of the above chart (circled in orange) is actually the minor part of this story, even though that smaller portion usually receives most of the press.

The only way to rationalize or justify such a pile of IOUs and debts is rapid economic growth.  And the only way to get that?  Cheap and plentiful oil.  Which brings us back to the recent spate of tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz through which some 30% of all exported oil flows on a daily basis.

Oil’s role in our economic engine is enormously underappreciated by the usual economic ‘experts’ out there.  To them, energy is a substance that magically shows up whenever needed.  They have no deeper understanding than that.  To me energy is THE master resource without which no other activities are even possible.  You show me anything that you can buy, do, or consume and I’ll show you how oil was an essential precursor.

It’s as simple as this.  The ever-increasing piles of debt (and IOUs) are an explicit call for a larger future economy.

So, you want more economy?  Then you are going to use more energy.  In particular, do you want more global economy with everything shipped hither and yon and 30,000 mile supply chains?  Then you are going to use more energy and more oil specifically.

More than 50 years of data says so:

The above chart shows that world energy usage is tightly coupled with economic growth.  More economy = more energy consumed.  It’s linear too.  Very easy to grasp, yet most economic experts don’t bother themselves with such information.  It violates their dogmatic views about the necessary imperative for endless growth, which means it violates  literally everything they know and believe.  So they don’t ‘go there.’

They falsely believe that economic growth makes energy resources become available.  They have it backwards.  It’s the other way around.  Energy resources allow economic growth to occur.  Most believe that infinite growth on a finite planet is not only possible, but a good thing, despite virtual mountains of dismal ecological and resource data to the contrary.

Oil is a weird substance economically.  If there’s even a few percent too much coming out of the ground (supply) compared to demand, the price plummets.  If there’s even a slight shortage, on the other hand, prices move sharply higher.

Given the importance of oil, however, we should not be focused on merely its price, although that’s important, but also it’s availability.  Yes, shortages will lead to price spikes, and those will crush over-indebted countries, companies and individuals alike, but shortages will, by necessity, also lead to less economic activity.  Exactly how all that plays out is entirely unknowable.  Welcome to complexity theory which states that the behaviors of complex systems cannot be predicted.  They can be observed.  What actually happens are called emergent behaviors.

If a war with Iran breaks out, and the Strait of Hormuz gets closed down for any length of time (say, more than a month) there will be a shortage of oil that will lead to a price spike.  And a physical shortage.  How all that plays out in a world groaning under the weight of too much debt is unknowable, but it won’t be favorable.  Or pretty, or desired.

What happens to complex global, integrated, just-in-time delivery systems is also unknowable.  But it won’t be pretty.  We’ll just have to watch as supply chain disruptions spread though a complex universe of derivatives, 12% zombie companies, cov-lite loans, $4-trillion of emerging market dollar-denominated debt, already astonishing fiscal deficits, underfunded pensions and all the rest.

With the new attacks on two more oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and the US’s immediate blaming of Iran, there’s a much higher than acceptable risk of a very damaging war breaking out that will close the Strait of Hormuz.

Conclusion

The world is sitting on an enormous pile of debts and related IOUs.  One that could easily catch fire and burn with the slightest provocation.  While the central banks can print money, create the easiest financial conditions in decades, and constantly intervene in both word and deed in every financial market (which they do), the one thing they cannot do is print up more oil.

If the Strait of Hormuz gets shut down for any length of time that’s going to be a black swan event.  It will be unforeseen, have a large impact, and afterwards people will try to explain the resulting complexities in simplistic ways.

You need to have a plan in place for what you’re going to do if or when that happens.   Everyone does.

Already there are signs that oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed a bit, perhaps to allow the insurance risks to be sorted out. It’s reasonable to suggest that it will take time to assess the actual risks and apply new policies and rates.  In the meantime, some ships will sit anchored or at port.

An oil price and supply shock is exactly the sort of black swan event that will take nearly everyone by surprise.  The narrative has been one of shale-fueled abundance for so long that practically nobody is thinking about the flip-side of that story.

After the fact, long after the damage has been done and dust has settled, historians may look back and say “It was that one c-308 variant missile from the shores of Iran striking and sinking the Saudi flagged VLCC (the “Layla”) in the center of the outbound shipping channel of the strait of Hormuz that caused everything that followed.”

While that event may have happened, that explanation won’t be entirely accurate.  Without an entire bonfire of ultra-dry debt tinder laying about and without decades of ill-will and nefarious actions, the missile wouldn’t have flown in the first place and the bonfire wouldn’t have raged quite so fiercely.  Sometimes an Archduke is just that and insufficient to ’cause’ tens of millions of needless deaths in a war nobody can quite explain.  Other times they are all that and more.

The US press loves to act as if these things all just happen, context-free, and in a vacuum, as if a half a century of US activity in the region never occurred.  Nothing ever happens in a vacuum.  There’s always context, and when it comes to Iran, there’s plenty.  Many decades of interference and blunt ‘diplomacy.’

So keep your eyes on the Strait of Hormuz and have your preparations and a plan in place before anything goes farther off the rails.

There’s already an economic slowdown occurring which will very quickly morph into a serious recession if/when an oil shock occurs.  This third and most ill-advised credit bubble of them all has already lasted for far too long.  Every bubble is in search of a pin – or a black swan.  An oil shock would be an entire flock of black swans against which the central banks would be powerless.

Will this simply be the end of The Everything Bubble? Or will this mark the end of the Grand Credit Experiment started back in 1971?

The former will be very painful, the latter will change everything forever for everyone.

In Part 2: What Happens When War Meets Recession? we discuss the tanker attacks, and the many recession indicators that are now stacking up. It’s not a question of if, but only when.

Are you prepared?

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

 

 

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31 Comments

  • Fri, Jun 14, 2019 - 5:58pm

    #1

    Mark_BC

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 280

    2+

    I can sense the growing cynicism in your writing. This was a spot on and blunt assessment of the collective state of our denial and or ambivalance towards the truth behind events, and how the so called experts in the media and government are really no more than talented actors and liars.

    <Brainy Smurf voice> I always said that attacking Iran was the US’s last option as the shale plays collapse and Iran develops oil ties with Russia and China separate from the US dollar.</Brainy Smurf voice>

    This is almost certainly a false flag attack needed to justify some kind of direct confrontation and who knows how far the warmongers intend to take it. Just like the false Gulf of Tonkin incident to start the Vietnam War. As with Vietnam, 9/11, the moon landings, etc etc, history will record them all as real events. Because people want to believe it, and because those in power want people to believe it.

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  • Fri, Jun 14, 2019 - 6:11pm

    #2

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

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    2+

    Leaning a bit towards kicking the can down the road for another year.

    Black swans are welcome to those who feel a swift kick to the behind is sometimes needed to begin setting things straight.

    I’m not so sure the whole “setting things straight” bit is going to closely follow in the wake of the swan.

    I guess that’s why I’m not complaining about them dragging things out a bit further. The consequences are already going to be catastrophic.

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  • Fri, Jun 14, 2019 - 6:18pm

    #3

    newsbuoy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 70

    1+

    Slip'n Into Darkness

    “The revolution will not be televised”

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  • Fri, Jun 14, 2019 - 6:27pm

    Reply to #2

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 4513

    3+

    Don't worry...

    Les, don’t worry.

    Chewy.com exploded out of the gate today as an IPO and never looked back, so everything is apparently great.

    People are getting rich for doing nothing!  How awesome is that? Just be brave and press the buy button!  The Fed has got your back! Life has never been better!

    Also, there’s this, but it’s probably nothing:

     

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  • Fri, Jun 14, 2019 - 6:33pm

    #4

    newsbuoy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 70

    Leaked: Jay Powell recorded talking to the POTUS, Shockingly real.

    Happy Friday, get up and dance you fools. 🙂

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 5:30am

    Reply to #2

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 465

    2+

    I’m not arguing with you...

    … but after the swan, there is probably global war, followed possibly by regional military dictatorships replacing collapsed governments, or something along those lines.

    In order to support militaries and those in power, a way will have to be found to collect taxes in the form of goods, like crops.

    The black swan will not change human nature and we will keep trashing the planet until we no longer have the means.

    Don’t mean to be a pessimist, but that’s the direction I’m seeing.  I don’t see the powerful throwing up their hands, giving up, going home and growing their own food.

     

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 5:39am

    Reply to #2

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

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    2+

    PS

    I also don’ t see them wasting all they invested in military and police hardware.

    We aren’t going to stage a successful revolution with our deer rifles.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 5:49am

    #5

    Chris Martenson

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    Never forget...

    Never forget that it’s nearly impossible to separate truth from sarcastic humor towards the end of things.

    Here’s the Onion being 100% prophetic a month ago.  Again.  Sadly.

     

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 5:58am

    #6
    joeldee

    joeldee

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    Oil

    Today’s article was off point. Once worldwide oil production is either a globalist co-operative, by having constrained the nations with oil,  thus creating a situation for the unwilling who are then no longer able to perform a populace ground/sea/aircraft war against them. Secondly, the ultimate goal is to contain every nation’s populace within finite controllable areas limiting travelling any distance without permission (2021-now 2030). Thirdly, this has been in preparation for decades like WWI as one hears 2030 bantered from all corners of the world-Language undefined is Language used as a weapon. Fourth, globalist nations are being driven to natgas, LNG and distance constricted electrical renewables for public use while corporations and militaries maintain nuclear and oil. The statists have so many more of their win-win control outcomes regarding oil. Fifth, What catastrophe larger than Honolulu or 911 will be needed to start the next war? My point is, as was yours regarding past history, there are NO black swans, but only individuals unable to look up from their work, see the storm clouds, and not listen to those who use Language without defining their obtuse words.

    As to the ship attacks, Why, Why at this time? Who are the three nations opposed to Iran? Would the USA profit from this action as well? Would the USA condone or condemn these like minded nations who attacked? Could it be a message to Abe trying to maintain an oil/$$ alternative? Could this be leading further to a religious war in the middle-east?–not a black swan.

    So many outcomes — so little time?

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 8:01am

    #7
    richcabot

    richcabot

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    False flags aren't black swans

    1. It’s unpredictable
    2. Afterwards, everyone comes up with an explanation for it

    Whether it’s 9/11 or gulf tankers being attacked, they were planned so they are quite predictable.  We common folk may not know in advance that they were going to happen but the elites do.  That’s how so many people made money off stock options on 9/11.  The explanations were similarly pre-planned planned.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 8:41am

    #8

    sand_puppy

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    Shaping the consensus for war

    I am watching the language used by the MSM to build the impression that war is  inevitable and that Iran is to blame.   This would sway ones impression if you didn’t already have a clear understanding that the MSM are scum and lie to kill people by the thousands in the global GOT.

    In addition to overt lies and accusations offered without evidence, here are a couple more subtle examples of molding the public mind?

    Hostilities are anticipated as Iran is preparing to exit the nuclear proliferation treaty, which the US withdrew from last year.

    So the US exited the nuclear proliferation treaty, not Iran.  But that is not clear from the phrasing.

    The pentagon is preparing the war theater in anticipation of Iranian hostilities….

    So, the pentagon is working to start a war and wants you to believe that it is Iran starting the war.

    The United States on Friday blamed Iran for attacks on two oil tankers at the entrance to the Gulf and said it was seeking international consensus about the threat to shipping, despite Tehran denying involvement in the explosions at sea.

    Thursday’s attacks raised fears of a confrontation in the vital oil shipping route at a time of increased tension between Iran and the United Statesover U.S. sanctions and military moves in the Middle East, Tehran’s proxy groups in the region and its nuclear program.

    Iran is threatening the area and is the initiator of the “increased tensions.”

     

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 10:31am

    #9

    Barbara

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    Black Swans or willfully blind ostriches?

    Perhaps there are no real black swans.  If you look at things recently described as black swan events, something similar was predicted in all sorts of different arenas.  Taleb himself predicted disruptions and benefited greatly.

    So I have heard coastal storms and recessions referred to as black swans, as if they came out of the blue like a rogue asteroid.  There is however, a better model for the last 20 years.  It’s NEON Swans.  The handwriting is on the wall.  The more honest are predicting disruptions from debt, climate, printing money. . .   MSM, social media and the sheep they lead continue to fiddle while Rome burns.  Bread, circuses and social media junkies have distracted from the reality of collapse.

    The problem with exponentials is once the fools notice it’s too late.  The water is already over everybody’s heads, including those who saw it coming.  A friend says “no more gold stars for predicting continuing rain, only for building the ark.”

    Thanks Chris for providing blueprints for arks.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 10:31am

    #10
    PaulJam

    PaulJam

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    Plausible alternative take on oil tanker attacks

    This in in the nth degree chess category, but seems plausible.  It is conjecture that  Iran is indeed behind the attacks, explaining motivations, tactics, goals, and over-arching strategy.

    The jist is that Iran may be playing off the lack of trust in the US in the international community to do attacks in a way that will raise the price of oil yet have enough plausible deniability to keep the international community convinced that the attacks are a false flag meant to foment a US instigated war.  the US would therefore be isolated in its war-stance, both internationally, and in terms of interal US support for a way.  If true, very clever!

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/iran-decided-to-put-maximum-pressure-on-trump-here-is-how-it-will-do-it.html#more

    I’m keeping an open mind about all this – not convinced, but curious.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 10:40am

    #11
    PaulJam

    PaulJam

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 04 2016

    Posts: 69

    1+

    Plausible alternative take on oil tanker attacks

    This is in the nth degree chess category, but seems plausible.  It is conjecture that  Iran is indeed behind the attacks, explaining motivations, tactics, goals, and over-arching strategy.

    The jist is that Iran may be playing off the lack of trust in the US in the international community to do attacks in a way that will raise the price of oil yet have enough plausible deniability to keep the international community convinced that the attacks are a false flag meant to foment a US instigated war.  The US would therefore be isolated in its war-stance, both internationally, and in terms of interal US support for a way.  If true, very clever!

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/06/iran-decided-to-put-maximum-pressure-on-trump-here-is-how-it-will-do-it.html#more

    I’m keeping an open mind about all this – not convinced, but curious.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 10:51am

    #12

    Snydeman

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    Causes vs “sparks.”

    “Many of us learned that WW I was ‘caused’ by an Archduke being shot.  In truth if there hadn’t been many prior years of feuding, bad politics, terrible economic policies, and worse communications absolutely nothing more than an elaborate state funeral would have resulted from the Archduke being shot.  Afterwards everyone assigned a simple explanation to a complex situation because that’s what people do.”

     

    Spot on example. When I teach World War One, I spend two full days on the multitude of long-term causes, and lesbians than five minutes on the assassination of some dude by a teenager in some city most French, German, or British people couldn’t even locate on a map. I explain that the causes – Imperialism, Militarism, the rigid alliance system, etc – were like explosives tossed into a shed, whereas the assassination of Franz Ferdinand was simply the match tossed into that shed. A match tossed into an empty shed does nothing, so what caused the explosion into war: the match or the explosives? They seem to get it. People just like to latch onto simplistic explanations rather than complex causes because that’s what we do: we don’t like to think deeply, and it’s so much easier to burn a goat than look at our own sins, so to speak.

     

    It might give us some satisfaction to know we are not alone: there were plenty of smart people who saw WWI coming smile away, but no one listened to them either!

     

    I’ve been telling everyone who’ll listen that this Iran connection is spurious at best, and direct manipulation of the populace at worst.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 10:56am

    #13

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 465

    2+

    Don’t You Wish It Was True

    https://youtu.be/4cyZvqetODY

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 10:59am

    #14

    Snydeman

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    Lesbians! Hilarious.

    I meant “less than.” No idea why autocorrect chose “lesbians,” but I want to drink what my iPhone is drinking…

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 11:10am

    #15
    brushhog

    brushhog

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    I feel the same way

    I dont know whats going to happen but whatever it is likely wont bring anything positive. Sometimes I feel like Id want to see something kick off, and other times the reality of living through some kind of horrible cataclysm makes me want the status quo to stretch on as long as possible.

    I think alot of people believe that there is going to be some black swan that is going to straighten the world out and from then on things will get better. I sincerely doubt it.  The Roman empire’s collapse took hundreds of years. Generation after generation lived and died during the collapse. They had good years and bad years, maybe decades that were marked by expansion and a return to normalcy. But by the time the last group of barbarians kicked open the gates there wasn’t much left of the old empire. As humans we expect things to progress on a time scale that coincides with our own lifetimes. We mark time and changes in years, but empires die over centuries. Each event is another leg down, followed maybe by a bounce and then a gradual settling to the new low. It’s very unlikely, IMO, that we will wake up one day to a whole new reality, the old one washed away and all the bad stuff along with it. We wont suddenly return to an agrarian paradise [ as a society, though as an individual you certainly have that option ].

    The most difficult thing to reconcile might be that we see neither collapse nor resurgence but a slow sort of dragging on with no clear indication of any real direction up or down. In the very long run historians might put it all on a neat long-range timeline that shows a perfect trajectory. However, to the short-lived individual, there may be no discernible pattern.

    Energy may get scarce and then become abundant. We might see GDP crank up to levels we here do not think are possible anymore, then a fall off and prolonged recession or vice versa. We might see war, and nothing apparent will come of it. We might see peace breakout all over the world. Each time we’ll say “this is it, the end has finally come” only to have it drag on or bounce in the complete opposite direction.

    The biggest black swan of all might be the one that never comes.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 2:09pm

    Reply to #13
    Uncletommy

    Uncletommy

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    Thanks, Les. I needed that.

    Here’s back at ya. I think I can see the end of the line!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cyZvqetODY&feature=youtu.be

    I’m headed back out to the garden where things are really REAL!

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 2:12pm

    #16
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

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    But we can see it coming

    An uncle was in the army during WW2 (rose to Major: middle management equivalent). I was chatting with him once about how it felt during the build-up to the war. He said that it had been obvious for years what Hitler was up to.

    Sometimes people can clearly see what’s coming and yet be unable to do anything about it.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 2:26pm

    #17
    Steve

    Steve

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    One thing maybe we can all agree to...

    Call it what you like, predictable, black swan, total surprise, unpredictable, slow deterioration, the convergence of energy-environment-economy-perpetural growth … whatever … maybe we can all agree on one point… “it” is coming.  The great equalizer is coming.

    Couple climate change with the other issues and the fact that I am mid 60’s already, what is the likelihood this society will value my existence 10 years from now to keep me around anyway. (How much room/tolerance will there be for people in their 70’s and 80’s?)

    “It” is coming.  How many years I personally have left is a crap shoot.  LOL.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 5:10pm

    Reply to #7

    newsbuoy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 70

    It's Just Me

    In both cases you mentioned there appear to be Wahhabi-Salifite iconoclasts, in close proximity. Just Say’n.

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  • Sat, Jun 15, 2019 - 6:53pm

    Reply to #13
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 25

    Sign me up!

    Very nice, thanks Les!  🙂

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  • Mon, Jun 17, 2019 - 8:37am

    #18
    paperboy

    paperboy

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    Posts: 1

    2+

    Not a black swan

    In it’s original context a “black swan” describes something totally unseen, unexpected. ergo, if you can describe it, it is NOT a black swan. The better term I’ve seen used is “gray rhino”: not uncommon, high impact and can be seen coming, even if in the distance

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  • Mon, Jun 17, 2019 - 10:46am

    #19

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 450

    8+

    Steve

    “Couple climate change with the other issues and the fact that I am mid 60’s already, what is the likelihood this society will value my existence 10 years from now to keep me around anyway. (How much room/tolerance will there be for people in their 70’s and 80’s?)

    “It” is coming.  How many years I personally have left is a crap shoot.  LOL.”

    Steve –

    I am right there with you in age but have a different perspective.  Young people know how to use their cell phones utilizing all the latest apps and features.  I on the other hand can walk outside my front door and point to a whole lot of plants that are edible or provide medicinal support, or can kill you. I can live without electricity, running water or indoor plumbing. I have lived that life.  If people are smart they would look around and find an elder who has valuable skills.  WE might just become an extremely valuable resource.

    AKGrannywGrit

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  • Mon, Jun 17, 2019 - 11:22am

    #20
    Steve

    Steve

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    3+

    AKgrannyGrit

    I hear you.

    Having originated in a farming community, worked a long career as an engineer in electric power generation, water and wastewater/sewer, I too have plenty to offer.

    With the current trends advancing over the next 10 years society will be stressed.  There will be choices to be made.  Only those with the strength, health and ability to contribute will be valued by “the cell phone” generation.

    Those who are fortunate enough at 75 years of age to be one of the valued choices, I suspect, will be in the minority.

    Stay healthy, fit and good luck with deploying your assets.

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  • Mon, Jun 17, 2019 - 12:28pm

    #21

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 450

    3+

    Thanks Steve

    I think your right. At this point there is little interest in wild-crafting, gardening and survival skills even amount my children and Grand-children. But when the student is a ready….

    Thankfully, I can still work a lot of young people under the table provided I get my post lunch nap. Lol

    Granny

     

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  • Tue, Jun 18, 2019 - 7:55am

    #22
    Edwardelinski

    Edwardelinski

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    Joined: Dec 23 2012

    Posts: 317

    3+

    The Jerusalem Post

    Reported yesterday that U.N officials believe that the U.S. is planning a “tactical assault”in Iran with an aerial bombardment on an Iranian facility linked to its nuclear program.”The bombing will be massive but limited to a specific target”We shall see…

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  • Wed, Jun 19, 2019 - 10:35am

    #23

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1848

    6+

    Global Power--Iran War, Left-Right Conflict, Concentration of Firearms

    Several author’s come from the perspective that a global elite (the globalists) are about to crash the global economy as a part of their efforts to re-engineer the global geopolitical structure through chaos, with them in charge, of course.

    One is Brandon Smith writing here.

    Iran War Looming

    War with Iran at this time makes no sense whatsoever unless you look at it from a globalist perspective…. the only group that stands to gain from such catastrophe, as war with Iran would seal the fate of the US economy. The most immediate threat would be the potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, …. [with an] explosion in oil prices would be devastating to the global economy….

    In the longer term complete destabilization of the Middle East would result, …. [An Iran war] coupled with the trade war would fulfill the globalist narrative that the Trump Administration and the conservatives that support him are a “menace” to global stability. …

    Currently, the mainstream media is very quiet on the Iran situation despite the sudden shift of US military resources to the region, which leads me to believe that a conflict is being planned in the near term.

    —–

    As edwardelinski reported above, the Jerusalem post advises that the US is planning on a massive, but focused, bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities.

    The Israeli military intelligence public website debka.com reports that IRAN is Planning on attacking a major Saudi Oil site.

    DEBKAfile Exclusive (June 18, 2019): US intelligence learns from a highly credible source that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have completed preparations for a large-scale assault on an important Saudi oil facility within days. On Monday, June 17, the aides of senior US congress members were summoned to the White House for a briefing on this intelligence and informed that this time the administration is gearing up for a military response.

    Additional troops, destroyers, submarines and patriot missiles have been moved to the gulf to “counter the Iranian threat.”

    How does DEBKA know of these dastardly Iranian intentions?  Anonymous sources.

    What Saudi facility will be attacked?  Don’t know.

    The key element here is to make the masses believe that Iran is the evil aggressor and trying to start a war.  Our actions are defensive.

    ———-

    Pepe Excobar reports on the developing Eurasian cooperation networks between Russia, China, India and including places at the table for the  “-stans,” Pakistan and Iran.  I don’t follow this closely, but, China and Russia will most certainly have strong feelings about an attack on Iran.  To what degree will they be involved?

    ———–

    Left-Right Conflict

    Brandon Smith also writes about another facet of this same process where the global elites consolidate their power through the nurturing of Left-Right conflict.

    There is a common misconception among newer activists in the liberty movement that the idea of the “false left/right paradigm” means that there is no political spectrum; that the entire notion of left vs right is a fabrication. This is not exactly the case. When we talk about false paradigms in regards to politics (or geopolitics), what we are actually referring to is the elitist class, otherwise known as globalists, and the fact that they have no left or right political orientationThey do not care about Democrats or Republicans, they have no loyalty to either party. Their loyalty is to their own agenda [which is the centralization of power in their own hands], and they will exploit BOTH sides to get what they want whenever possible.

    The end goal of the globalist cabal is to eventually reach a point where EVERYONE in the world is a supporter of totalitarian centralization.

    _____

    Removal of Firearms from the Common Citizens

    Another pre-requisite of centralized control by the elite is to eliminate citizen firearms.  You cannot impose a (RED Meme) vicious totalitarian rule on an armed population.  They have enough power to fight back and will not submit.

    Daisy Luther at TheOrganicPrepper.com writes on this aspect this week.

    The “Mass Shootings Map” Propaganda

    If you use any form of social media whatsoever, you’ve probably seen the scary “mass shootings map” published by PBS, leading people to believe that they live in a terrifying place and that the only answer is  strict gun control [letting representatives of the state be the only people allowed weapons.]

    These terrifying dots are not all brazen shoot-outs in malls or movie theaters, during which someone takes out as many people as they can. But that’s how it’s portrayed. It’s posted without any real criteria except for the fact that it is incidents in which 4 or more people are shot, including the initial perpetrator.

    There are many vital stats missing. Here are just a few of the questions you should ask yourself when you look at that ridiculous mass shooting map.

    • Are any of these homeowners protecting their family from a home invasion? We don’t know – we just know that 4 people were shot.
    • Are any of these incidents of gang violence? We don’t know – we just know that 4 people were shot. Also, I’m pretty sure gang-members don’t register their firearms or get permits to carry them
    • Are any of these shooters victims of the mental health industry, taking SSRI anti-depressants?  Actually we do know that quite a few of them were. Despite the fact that SSRIs don’t work on everyone who takes them, and on some they actually cause the person taking them to become violent and act on their thoughts, I don’t see anyone calling for a ban on SSRIs.
    • Are these all legally obtained guns? We don’t know – we just know that 4 people were shot. This most recent incident happened in California, home of some of the most stringent gun laws in the country. (It was nearly an 8-month process to get my own concealed carry permit here, and many were the hoops I had to jump through.)
    • How many of these happened in gun-free zones? [SP addition]

    This is a scare tactic, meant to frighten those who won’t think more deeply about the issue. It’s for people who read the headlines, but not the articles.

    The map was published by PBS, who is sponsored in part by Pew Charitable Trust. While the map makes it look like gun violence is on the uptick, Pew reported in a recent article that it actually dropped in half a decade ago, and has remained steady since.

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  • Thu, Jun 20, 2019 - 8:39pm

    #24
    Electrum

    Electrum

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    Posts: 1

    test comment

    testing comment editing

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  • Fri, Jun 21, 2019 - 8:52am

    #25

    newsbuoy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 70

    A Black Swan Event

    https://www.fda.gov/radiation-emitting-products/alerts-and-notices/ultraviolet-radiation-burns-high-intensity-metal-halide-and-mercury-vapor-lighting-remain-public

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