Crash Course Chapter 1: Three Beliefs

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Transcript

Welcome to Chapter 1 of the Crash Course.

It’s very important to distinguish between facts, opinions, and beliefs.  I will be crystal clear when I am presenting facts, stating an opinion, or communicating a belief.

So let me be right upfront about this.

Based upon the years of analysis spent developing the Crash Course, I hold three beliefs.

I’m going to share them with you, and then spend the rest of our time showing you how I got to these beliefs.

The first is that the next twenty years are going to be completely unlike the last twenty years.  Why is this important?

Because we tend to base our view of the future on our most recent experience.

That is, whatever just happened last is our expectation for what is going to happen next.

That’s just part of being a human, and it is a remarkably good strategy most of the time.  But is can be a gigantic liability at key turning points.

My belief is that the changes that will make the next 20 years so different have already begun.   So we can reframe that belief by stating that Massive Change is already upon us.

When I first presented this material way back in 2005 I used to say massive change is coming.

Well, it’s here now and the belief I hold is that it’s really just getting underway, it will last for a very long time, and I’ll show you why I hold that belief.

Next I believe that it’s possible – possible – that the pace and/or scope of change could overwhelm the ability of our key social and support institutions to adapt.

Katrina taught us that a major US city could be wiped out and pretty much remain that way for years.

That is an example of major change occurring faster than our ability to respond.

The types of changes I foresee in our economic landscape are larger than Katrina.  Much larger.

For example, the financial crisis of 2008 came within a whisker of taking down the entire global banking system. Yet I see the risks going forward as even greater than they were then.

My third belief is that we do not lack any technology or understanding necessary to build ourselves a better future.

We already have everything we need.

Rather we only lack the political will to do the right things, which really is a reflection of the fact that We The People have not yet raised our voices in unison for real, substantive change.

So the good news is that we already have everything we need. The bad news is that we might not deploy it fast enough….

Remember, these are simply my beliefs right now and I reserve the right to change them if new information suggests that they need to be modified or replaced.

In Chapter 2, ‘The Three “E”s’, I will describe the central idea underlying the Crash Course so that you will know what to expect as we move along.