Crash Course Chapter 1: Three Beliefs

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Transcript

Welcome to Chapter 1 of the Crash Course.

It’s very important to distinguish between facts, opinions, and beliefs.  I will be crystal clear when I am presenting facts, stating an opinion, or communicating a belief.

So let me be right upfront about this.      

Based upon the years of analysis spent developing the Crash Course, I hold three beliefs.

I’m going to share them with you, and then spend the rest of our time showing you how I got to these beliefs. 

The first is that the next twenty years are going to be completely unlike the last twenty years.  Why is this important? 

Because we tend to base our view of the future on our most recent experience.

That is, whatever just happened last is our expectation for what is going to happen next. 

That’s just part of being a human, and it is a remarkably good strategy most of the time.  But is can be a gigantic liability at key turning points. 

My belief is that the changes that will make the next 20 years so different have already begun.   So we can reframe that belief by stating that Massive Change is already upon us. 

When I first presented this material way back in 2005 I used to say massive change is coming

Well, it’s here now and the belief I hold is that it’s really just getting underway, it will last for a very long time, and I’ll show you why I hold that belief.

Next I believe that it’s possible – possible – that the pace and/or scope of change could overwhelm the ability of our key social and support institutions to adapt. 

Katrina taught us that a major US city could be wiped out and pretty much remain that way for years. 

That is an example of major change occurring faster than our ability to respond. 

The types of changes I foresee in our economic landscape are larger than Katrina.  Much larger.

For example, the financial crisis of 2008 came within a whisker of taking down the entire global banking system. Yet I see the risks going forward as even greater than they were then.

My third belief is that we do not lack any technology or understanding necessary to build ourselves a better future.    

We already have everything we need.

Rather we only lack the political will to do the right things, which really is a reflection of the fact that We The People have not yet raised our voices in unison for real, substantive change. 

So the good news is that we already have everything we need. The bad news is that we might not deploy it fast enough…. 

Remember, these are simply my beliefs right now and I reserve the right to change them if new information suggests that they need to be modified or replaced.

In Chapter 2, ‘The Three “E”s’, I will describe the central idea underlying the Crash Course so that you will know what to expect as we move along.

Comments

hail's picture
hail
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 6 2012
Posts: 2
MP3

Is there a way to listen to the Crash Course via MP3?
I'd like to listen to it while I go about my day and not be tethered to the internet.

Denny Johnson's picture
Denny Johnson
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 13 2008
Posts: 348
Hail, I used DownloadHelper 

Hail,

I used DownloadHelper  a Firefox extension, to download in MP4 format.

It's a great tool for one w intermittent access to a good internet connection.

wiggum's picture
wiggum
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Joined: Nov 3 2016
Posts: 1
Innacurate Data

The close collapse of HBOS and RBS does not mean the global financial system came within a whisker of collapse. You highlight text in an newspaper article - "Within hours of collapse" while talking about the GBS, this was in reference to 2 banks, not the GBS. For your "Crash course" to be credible you cannot use typical media fear mongering tactics.That's not to say it's not true, but the way you present it is false. And it's only chapter 1...

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5144
Watch those beliefs!

wiggum wrote:

The close collapse of HBOS and RBS does not mean the global financial system came within a whisker of collapse. You highlight text in an newspaper article - "Within hours of collapse" while talking about the GBS, this was in reference to 2 banks, not the GBS. For your "Crash course" to be credible you cannot use typical media fear mongering tactics.That's not to say it's not true, but the way you present it is false. And it's only chapter 1...

Ironic first post here in the Three Beliefs section.

But since this site is about data, here's some for you.  The idea that the Global Banking system was a mere hours away from collapse is a view that comes from the statements and memoirs of Hank Paulson, Mervyn King and other deep insiders at the time.

Here's the former Exchequer of the UK, Alasdair Darling, in a review article from 2013 talking about those moments in 2008:

‘The most abiding memory is a phone call from Tom McKillop, the chairman of RBS, who phoned me on the morning of October 7, 2008. I was at a European finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg, looking out over a rain-swept industrial estate.

I’d met the bosses of the banks the day before to talk about the bailout package, but we hadn’t told them everything because we hadn’t finalised it. ‘I remember being summoned out of the meeting to talk to Tom McKillop and he said things were just terrible, that money was pouring out of the door. ‘He said, “What are you going to do about it?”

Which I thought was a quite remarkable thing to say – what are YOU going to do about it! ‘I said to him, “We’re almost ready to go. How long can you last?”

I thought he might say maybe a couple of days, and what really shook me was that he said, “Well maybe two or three hours and that’s it.”

‘What was in my mind at that point is that if people thought the biggest bank in the world had failed, there would not be a bank in the western world that would be safe. ‘The risk I have always seen is that people forget just how close we came to a complete collapse and the thing about a collapse of the banks is that it wouldn’t just have been the banks in ruins, it would have been complete economic and therefore social collapse.

People without money can do nothing – you can’t buy your petrol, you can’t buy your food, anything. ‘It was rather like a nuclear war, you know you think it will never happen. And then someone tells you that a missile’s been launched. It was very scary. That moment will stick with me for the rest of my days.’

(Source)

Hmmm...that sounds awfully 'collapsy' there to me, and only 'hours away.'  Are you more credible than Mr. Darling?  If so, who are you?  Please tell us so we can trust your words more than his.

You've made an unbacked assertion that the collapse of a couple of the largest banks in the world in the UK would not have been a systemically critical moment.

1) What's your evidence for that?

2) No, it doesn't matter to anybody here is "that's just your feeling."

3) Please bring data, and check your beliefs and assumptions at the door.  

Everything I post or write about is backed up, and usually from multiple sources.  The data file behind the Crash Course is very large and it has all been vetted by our team.

alishagraves's picture
alishagraves
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: May 25 2017
Posts: 1
more evidence that "we can shape the future"

Here are 100 solutions we have available that - if scaled - could drawdown greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by 2050: http://www.drawdown.org/

I contributed to the family planning and girls education sections.

In solidarity,

Alisha Graves

PS - I co-founded the OASIS Initiative (Sahel) with Malcolm Potts and we dined together at his home a few years back.

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