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I’ve heard that social distancing and environmental factors in rural Sweden mean it’s unlikely to reproduce there outside of like nursing homes and schools and such (assume these are locked down and we’re good).
But, apparently Stockholm and the southern suburbs are expected to become apocalyptic, with the “burst” of death about to occur within the next 3 weeks.
I have understood that herpes is a DNA virus, so it programs nerve cells to create more herpes, but only after the end of the nerve cell’s long natural lifespan. The long lifespan is why herpes “comes back”. Coronaviruses don’t work that way.
That’s why I speculate SARS-CoV-2 uses a granuloma feature (infecting white blood cells which then become these clots that protect the virus from the immune system, only to be released later down the road when the clot dissolves)
Oliveoilguy, allow me to explain.
If someone who’s infected leaves an environment with R0 of 6 and goes to a rural area, by all accounts the virus could start spreading there. However, the R0 in that area would be less, let’s say 1-2.
Without a major lockdown, the first area would keep a high R0 even if some people disperse.
My point was just that you need to build up momentum in a dense place to get high R0 – and not just that, but higher viral loads as well (since my theory is that repeat exposure over time to high loads makes the virus actually more deadly).
Ever since we learned that almost no kids even get symptoms let alone very sick my eyebrows raised. I did not think “oh phew”, I thought “why in the heck would this be?” Something is different about kids to make them have such a different reaction to the disease. That different could turn out to not be so good.
I don’t think there’s an iceberg behind it. I think these “apocalyptic” conditions I describe would be apparent if there was sufficient testing, and where it’s not apparent, there would not be apocalyptic conditions.
All you need is for your local public environment to have a high number of infectious people for things to be bad for you personally. That can occur in a small or large scale. But, the large scale would be very obvious with testing and I think takes time to build up and needs favorable conditions.
We should also consider whether this is a completely new syndrome that has not occured in humans in the past, so it’s being misdiagnosed as the next most similar illness (Kawasaki)
I think these graphs are misleading you a bit. The rate of case increase and death increase are similar, so the shapes largely match. That doesn’t mean there’s a 1-to-1 correspondence between past cases and later deaths. You’ve noticed a 15-26 day window. That has to exactly match how long it takes to die for your theory to be true. Otherwise, it’s just a matter of both deaths and cases are still increasing, and the shapes are similar.
I think the disease has variable deadliness depending on epidemiological conditions (short version – viral loads – though it’s a bit more complicated than that). CFR of 2-10% I’d agree with. Though, I think it can reach 20% with medical failure and a bad bad viral load situation.
5% would be the average.
Also, I think about half of people don’t become cases. So, IFR is 1%-5%, again, around 10-15% in a bad bad situation.
That’s pretty bad, TBH.
I theorize that the pneumonia is not the main effect of the virus, that it is not mainly attacking in the lungs. So, clean the blood, and the lung problem should clear up.
Wow this is great and probably the answer!
I’m in Japan, so forget about a test. I actually called in very early in February. My symptoms appeared 5 days after a massage – I know, seedy, but non-sexual I promise – from a Chinese masseuse in Tokyo. This was Jan 22. She literally complained of a sore throat and cough abotu 45 minutes in, saying that was a couple days ago and she was just a bit tired. This was just before Wuhan’s lockdown so I sort of jokingly wondered if it was this “strange Wuhan pneumonia”. I think it was.
There are different strains of this disease, and I suspect that how your body first infects matters. GI tract versus respiratory tract versus olfactory gland (loss of smell).
I bet you were infected at the beginning of February, Chinese people in Brazil from mid-January spreading it, or travellers returning from China. I do sense the virus has been around a long time, and it’s unclear why it hasn’t been on the radar as much. Japan is an interesting case. It’s getting bad here, but nothing in February. Even though I swear there were a lot of people reporting respiratory colds in February and lots of people thinking there were more ambulances.
I think it’s the strains. I think there was an original strain which was very less lethal and it mutated in Wuhan in mid-January, with the original very widespread in China around that time.
I’ve never had chest pain, just upper tract irritation and eventually hypoxia – but the hypoxia came later, so it might be the blood problem not a lung problem. And I admit I had a beat of drink, day off, drink during my “drinks” – so I could have induced a prolonged effect.
Actually, had hypoxia this morning, and now – wouldn’t you know – dry throat. I hope I do get better soon, I’m really waiting, but will be nice to knock bad a couple cold ones again.
One last piece of info. I get these ingrown hairs on my chin, I’ve had three, in three different spots, each corresponding to periods of having symptoms. I mention this – well because it’s a thing – but also because one time I had two days of a swollen under-chin lymph node. I’ve read that means a respiratory infection, which in my theory corresponds to the the virion dose infecting some tissue and then the resultant immune response.
Anyway, the ingrown hairs become these kind of pea-sized lumps. Naturally, with an active immune response you could imagine an inflamed skin infection that doesn’t heal immediately. Except, these aren’t always inflammed or painful, but they’re hard, and once I tried to lance it and no joy. So I’m very speculatively wondering if the granulomatous coagulates are embedding in these spots as they process into my lymphatic system.
When the ingrown hairs shrink back down, that’s when my period of symptoms ends, and when a new one begins, it’s attended by a new ingrown hair.