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Pan American Silver took a hit today:
The second-largest primary silver mining company in the world reported first-quarter earnings today, and the market didn’t get what it expected. Shares of Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS) dropped almost 12% early Thursday, and remained down 10% as of 11:20 a.m. EDT. Fool.com
They are basically claiming COVID put the whammy on production at their Mexico and Argentina mines.
I took the opportunity to buy a 2023 option at a decent price.
I just wanted to give a heads-up to the miner-minded folk here.
…and I’m immune to Mohamed Mast sh*t-stirring posts.
Yesterday we saw a huge move in the gold/silver miners. It looks like we could possibly see some follow-thru today.
I started following a guy that I haven’t read in a decade: Gary of Notes From the Rabbit Hole fame.
He was looking for a bounce in the HUI at 273 and I think we got it on May 2nd.
So we have talked a lot about the sector funda and macro funda which, with stocks and commodities out performing gold and long-term interest rates rising with inflation, are not good. We have also looked at an inkling of what will be needed to reverse that.
But since other men (and of course ladies) who stare at charts manage only by technicals, we can take a big picture review of the situation using nothing but a GDX monthly chart. It is just so simple as to be stupidly simple, which is why I like these monthly views (ref. the HUI monthly we usually stare at).
GDX monthly says that should the fundamentals come in line then this thing is set up to run to around 55 (HUI’s next target is the oft-noted 500 area). Should the fundamentals not come in line it’s still a technical bounce that began off of a very bleak sentiment backdrop and it is breaking the Handle so far in May. Just an FYI from another angle.
To review for those with questions, why do I even participate with gold stocks when the fundamentals stink? Because a) sentiment, b) technicals and c) most importantly, they are counter to the high risk cyclical world right now. It doesn’t mean that they will not get dinged when broad markets do, but it does mean that will be the time that gold mining fundamentals get another positive infusion.
I have very small options positions in the miners that I kept because they are 2022 expirations. If we do see a continuation of the move from yesterday, I think I will buy some more.
Hopefully I will make a killing on these options so that I can give it all to Biden (long-term capital gain taxes) and he can distribute it to someone more worthy.
DF: For the record, I wasn’t referring to “intheor” when I sensed the return of MM. See if you can figure out which snarky poster I was referring to. Assuming you care enough to do so. 🙂
Oh, I care. It must be ironpuppy then.
I remember when we had the ignore button. I won the “Most Ignored Member Award” three years running 🙂
DF: MM – glad to see you were able to sneak back onto the site. I guess you really missed us all. But – nothing about bitcoin? Surely bitcoin still exists? 🙂
Lol…you nailed it….I mean you nailed Mohamed Mast (now Intheor or something like that).
I didn’t even know he was banned.
A person only writes like that if you are trying to hide your identity. My gawd man, it must be killing you to not talk about crypto. lol. C’mon, let it out buddy.
Are you still banning me from buying bitcoin?
Maybe I could buy it with a fake name, lol.
BTW, Gates is smart enough to know that he doesn’t need to depopulate the human species because Nature will do it for him.
Engineering the Apocalypse
I like to listen to the Sam Harris podcast when I wake up in the middle of the night and can’t go back to sleep (because it generally bores me back to sleep). But this one kept me up:
I only listened to about an hour of it, but it is not a pleasant subject. I plan on listening to the rest of it as I go clean out the aquaponic beds and cut down more dead bamboo today.
BH: You say the vaccine is an unknown but then assert that the virus is a bigger concern than the vaccine…if it’s unknown, how could you know?
I’m not going to waste our time playing semantic games. Statistically, the virus may not be a threat to you and that is great.
For me it is a different story. I suffered long term lung damage from a chemical plant explosion when I was in my 20’s. Until recently I also had Type 2 Diabetes. There is some evidence that being a former diabetic might be worse than being a current diabetic when it comes to COVID mortality (figure that).
Anyway, my statistical chance of dying from COVID is way more than 0.3%. If it was 0.3%, I wouldn’t be worried one bit and I sure as hell wouldn’t take a vaccine.
I really enjoy most of your posts BH, but we don’t know each other. You think I’m some guy that watches the news, lol. Other than the weather during hurricane season, I haven’t watched the news since I was a kid and was forced to.
The study of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity in vivo is challenging due to the necessary biosafety laboratory regulations. Thus, we developed an acute lung injury model by intratracheally instilling the S1 subunit of SARS-CoV-2 Spike S protein (400 μg/kg, 2 ml/kg body weight) in K18-hACE2 transgenic mice that overexpress the human receptor for SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein S, ACE2, and investigated outcomes 72 hours later.
This was a nice find DF, but I don’t think the study says what you might think. Unfortunately I can’t seem to get my hands on the complete study, just the abstract.
As stated above, the mice in this study were genetically engineered to get S-protein deposition in their lung tissue. So they inject the Spike protein into their airway and 72 hours later the mice have lungs full of spike protein, exactly as they were genetically designed to have. I don’t know what that proves.
I would really need to read the complete study to make any conclusions.
BTW, I listened to this podcast yesterday and thought it was pretty good. Sorry if I am reposting this:
BH: Your priorities may have been hijacked by a fear campaign, and even though the data is clear…you have been psychologically worked over to such an extent that you cannot see it.
Well, ain’t that the pot complaining about the kettle’s surface discoloration.
Geezus, all you guys do is a run your own fear campaign about the vaccines. In the end, it’s all just bullish*t. Just like me, and everyone else, you guys don’t know a thing about the long term consequences of the vaccine.
It’s an unknown.
Just because something is unknown doesn’t mean you should fear it. In fact, fearing an unknown is probably the worst thing you could do.
The only “news” I consume is from this site, so your statement above is ridiculously hypocritical. It is the members here that are promoting the Vaccine Apocalypse fear, not me.
The sad thing is, that I’m really on your side. I have learned to avoid extreme points of view because they are counterproductive to me personally.
I am beginning to see a map in my mind of the 10-20 % of my neighbors who might be the survivors and faced with a new world with minimal resources and minimal human population.
OOG: I’m a bit surprised that you entertain such ideas. You have always seemed pretty level-headed to me, so I’m reluctant to question you on this.
Do you really think that the vaccines are life-threatening to all that take them?
I know that we are dealing with an unknown here, but we deal with many unknowns and they never end up being the worst-case scenario.
In my half-ass opinion, the most likely scenario is that the vaccine causes a viral mutation that makes it more infectious. Worst-case scenario would be a mutation that outwits the innate immunity of the younger population.
It seems pretty clear that the virus should be the focus of concern, not the vaccines themselves.
I know the lockdown strategy gets a lot of criticism here, but the 1918 flu is a good example of what happens when you don’t lockdown….50 million deaths in just over a year.
Personally, I’m preparing for another round of self-isolation later in the year. During a highly infectious stage, my greatest personal risk comes from going to the grocery store. So I’ve been cooking my butt off lately and stocking my freezers and pantry.
Food is likely to get more expensive and more scarce, no matter what happens with the virus. And it is a great way to create goodwill with family and neighbors. It seems like the best investment of time and money to me.
Disclosure: I haven’t got the vaccine….yet.