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    • Fri, Feb 26, 2021 - 08:19am

      #9

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      PMs

    I gave up on PM’s and the miners awhile back, figuring that we wouldn’t see a trend change until after another liquidity crisis in the larger markets.

    I keep one long-term (2022-23) call option each for SILJ, GDXJ, PAAS, SLV and GOLD just so I can track the option market pricing easily. They are getting creamed today.

    This same thing kinda happened last year, with gold and silver tanking before and with the larger markets.

    One would think that with all the inflation fear that gold and silver would not be selling off, but markets don’t make sense on purpose. The market’s only purpose is to take the little guy’s money and give it to the big guy.

    One lesson from last year is that if you are hoping to buy physical during a crash you won’t be able to.

     

    • Thu, Feb 25, 2021 - 12:56pm

      #11

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      PM Daily Market Commentary – 02/24/2021

    I guess I just have to whine like a lil beoch on here and the market goes my way the next day.

    • Thu, Feb 25, 2021 - 07:14am

      #3

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      Woonomics?

    Nice silver delivery chart Boss. Now I see why there is so much excitement around silver.

    It looks like Gamestop is getting play again.

    I woke at 2am and couldn’t go back to sleep. The YouTube algo that I would enjoy this Woonomics video:

    This seemed more interesting at 2 am, but I thought I would share it.

    Some highlights:

    • Bitcoin becomes “unbuyable” at $64K, then everyone moves to physical silver.
    • Bullion banks go down in the next month…
    • Something about web bots analyzing language on the internet.
    • The end of the US dollar this summer…

    Not really my thing but I thought some people here might enjoy it.

    • Wed, Feb 24, 2021 - 02:10pm

      #19

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      Thanks

    ao, thanks for reaching out. I appreciate your words.

    It is totally gambling, but I’m betting with the “house” (the dealers on the other side of the Hooders). I’m staying in.

    I’ll quit bitching though. Thanks to you guys putting up with me.

    Good luck on the silver play, guys. I have some long term call options on SLV, PAAS, and SILJ, but just a few. They are the only green in my portfolio and I want to sell them, lol.

    Time to rip out some carpet and sheetrock (flood damage)…I need to be destructive after the loses today.

    All the best and thanks again.

     

    • Wed, Feb 24, 2021 - 07:55am

      #8

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      It sucks to be JAG right now…

    DF: Often, there isn’t a trade setting up.  This is why I don’t trade options.  You have to be right, and right in a particular timeframe.  That’s really hard.  Mostly, it doesn’t work out.

    You are correct, of course. But I have this misguided belief that I can time market sell-offs using “dumb money” sentiment extremes.

    At the risk of sounding even more stupid, I didn’t get ‘short’ the market in Feb 2020 because of COVID, I got short because the dumb money was crazy bullish and the smart money was showing bearish sentiment, well before COVID became the narrative.

    I don’t actually believe that anything exogenous to the market causes the market to move. I mean we just saw the greatest bull market in history during the worst (hopefully) of the pandemic.

    I know you place a lot of emphasis on narrative, and with the dominance of social media and memes today, you could be right. Which is why I enjoy reading your reports.

    VT: that is probably wise advice that I should heed. I just can’t do it (and I’ve tried).

    Thanks for the feedback.

    It sucks to be JAG right now.

    • Wed, Feb 24, 2021 - 06:03am

      #3

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      Despair

    Well, if the crash was going to happen, yesterday would have been my pick for the start of it….and…it didn’t happen.

    The reversal in the Nasdaq was the most impressive move I have ever seen in a major index. In fact, Sentimentrader says the last time a bullish reversal like that occurred was about a month away from the top of the Dotcom bubble in 2000.

    I really want to stick it out, but it’s getting harder and harder to take these loses each day. I guess I should just let it go until I lose everything, that way I confirm that my strategy no longer works and can step away from trading for good.

     

    • Tue, Feb 23, 2021 - 08:04am

      #5

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      PM Daily Market Commentary – 02/22/2021

    Nice link wotthecurtains, thanks.

    I’m positioned well for a ‘broken vol accident’, which means it probably won’t happen, lol.

    DF, thanks for the Dr. Kory video.

    • Tue, Feb 23, 2021 - 06:50am

      #2

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      The Smell of Deflation in the Morning

    If stocks go up when COVID numbers go up, do they go down when COVID declines?

    Maybe they do!

    My theory is that there is nobody left to buy the dip. Margin is at a record high, mutual funds have the lowest cash in 20 years, and everybody was forced into very illiquid assets because of the Fed printing.

    My TLT call options are up 1000% this morning. I’m not joking.

    • Mon, Feb 22, 2021 - 06:50am

      #2

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      Can Governments Stop Bitcoin

    Can Governments Stop Bitcoin?

    Only if all the world governments act against it together, which would never happen. If only one government keeps it legal, all the crypto business flows there. Cha-ching!

    • Mon, Feb 22, 2021 - 06:32am

      #8

      JAG

      Status Platinum Member (Offline)

      Joined: Oct 26 2008

      Posts: 683

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      Solar panel specs for my house – feedback requested

    LG panels are super expensive. You won’t be in that house in 25 years, and if you were, there would be much better panels available then.

    You should be able to cut the price of the PV component by at least 60% with a more frugal selection.

    Your high school friend is maybe looking to maximize his commission. Build it yourself and learn something new.

    I would go with a Sol-Ark system just to get EMP protection (and superb lightening protection). It’s a very flexible system that can adapt to unknowns in the future.

    Wait 6 months and do your due diligence. You will be happy that you did.

Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 582 total)