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    • Thu, Mar 29, 2012 - 05:00pm

      #7
      Farmer Brown

      Farmer Brown

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      So the point of this thread

    So the point of this thread is just to bash Ayn Rand and her work? How productive.

    I will just state I own and have read every Rand book, so at least I can say I know what I am talking about. First off, Rand’s books (most importantly the novels Atlas Shrugged and The Fountainhead), were written for the exact purpose of juxtaposing one of the most extreme forms of government that could arise from the social engineering that started in the 1940’s and 1950’s, against her idealized version of a group of people who held her beliefs, and who were a very small minority in such a society. Rand grew up in and was a refugee from communist USSR, so I have no doubt her versions of what happens in societies where government’ runs howwild nuts are based on a good amount of personal experience.

    I can personally sympathize with much of Rand’s work because I see the destruction of wealth caused by government almost every single day. The following are just a few examples. For purposes of context, I work in the operations side of a private school in Central America that’s well established and has a strong reputation. Yet this is the run-of-the-mill stuff we have to deal with:

    ·         Yesterday, I received a notice from the Enviro-Nazis where I live, refusing us permission to build a retaining wall to protect our school from a river that outgrew its banks in a 100-year storm and caused some serious damage. The only problem is, the storm occured 18 months ago. It took us 12 months to get the permits to build the wall. We had to hire a consultant just to navigate the maze of Bullsweet to get the permits, whose cost alone raised the cost of the whole project by 15%. Then while we built the wall, the project was closed twice during construction by the Municipality for no reason. It was finally built, with all the permits, but we are still getting notices (in this case to not proceed – er, it’s already done, idiots), which we have to spend lawyers, time and money on, answering. In the meantime, one of our stakeholders has been charged criminally for invading the river, again by Enviro-Nazis who sit at a desk somewhere and just issue pieces of paper and have not even been out to our site to even understand what they are trying to pine about.. Nevermind the President of the country issued an emergency decree after the storm declaring all normal permitting processes for repair work to be temporarilly lifted.

    ·         Two days ago, we received a notice from the National Institute of Infancy, informing us that we must obey the Order # such and such from the Ministry of Health and give the Mnistry of Infancy alist of all our students and which ones don’t have vaccinations. If we don’t I could go to jail. That is almost literally what the notice says. Nevermind there is no such l;a that requires anyone to be vaccinated in the country where I live, or for private schools to have to obey any of this nonsense. So de we take it to court and waste thosuands of dollars, or do we comply with the latest

     government MORON who has decided to knock on our door to see what bribes he can extract?

    ·         Last year, we were informed we ahd to submit an emergency evacuation plan for our cafeteria in order to re-obtain our food operating permit. What are the specifications, minimum requirements, and format for an emergency plan? Nobody could tell us, but they only would accept one from o ne predetermined authorized, official, emergency plan guy, and it costs $1,500. What he wound up submitting I could have created on a simple word processing program in my spare time. I am 100% sure someone at the Municpality shared his fee.

    ·         We are audited constantly by the tax authorities. They ALWAYS find something – it is impossible for them not to. The laws are too poorly written for there to be clarity so if you are complying with one, you are breaking another. I am positive they are written like this on purpose.

    ·         Two weeks ago, the Ministry of Education informed us that we would HAVE to send one or two of our physical education staff to some or othe conference they are having, and thjat we will be expected to participate in the future. Nevermind that the Minsitry has absolutely ZERO power over private schools. The law gives them the right to ask for our list of teachers and for the square footage area of our labs. Why that is I don’t know, but we are bombarded by requests completely outside their authority ALL the time. That Ministry, like all the others here, is packed with aparatchiks who know only one thing: meddle meddle meddle, destroy the private sector, try to get bribes, at the very least harrass as much of the private sector as possible.

    This list could go on for page after page, and I could easily add a story to it at least every other week. I dedicate at least 50% of my time not  towards improving the school, but fighting aparatchiks in government who do nothing to add value to our society (and whose salaries we pay for!).

    Our infrastructure is a disaster. Crime is rampant. Corruption is beyond anything I could ever possibly describe to anyone that hasn’t lived in a Banana Republic. Public services are a joke. Yet taxes are incredibly high, making all things incredibly expensive, and nobody knows where the money goes. Well I know – it goes to line the pockets of a parasitic class of leaches, which call themselves the government who live in exchange for the power they hold over the private sector, and not for anything productive or remotely beneficial.

    Yet, this is all “democratic”. Yes, we voted for this, somehow or another. And this is what is ultimately defended when people call for “Public Virtue” because this is what ultimately arises. Every social program that was ever started here started out as “Public Virtue” and of course the politicians still sell it and defend it as that.

    The problem is that, while there very well are people who could be publically virtuous, and there have been a few in history that humanity has been blessed to have had serve, once you create the platform for the publically virtuous to have power, it almost instantly is invaded my mouchers, fraudsters, and parasites who are not there to serve, but to be served. Such a class of people now rule the country where I live, and the US is on the very fast track to catching up with us. 

     

    • Mon, Sep 12, 2011 - 07:56pm

      #3
      Farmer Brown

      Farmer Brown

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      joanne wrote:What would

    [quote=joanne]

    What would happen if Greek would actually default?  Sorry if this appears to be a silly question..but who exactly are they defaulting on???  Are they defaulting on a particular bank OR banks?  And if so, which banks??  And if they default, are the banks strong enough to handle the loss? If they are not strong enough, then I believe that the banks in Europe have insurance for their depositers to cover a certain amount of money.  So as long as the depositers keep less than that amount in their accounts, they won’t personally get hurt. (as long as they know which bank is going to go bankrupt so they can move their funds) 

    So, if what I am assuming is correct, then why doesn’t Greek just default??  Countries have defaulted before, and had a tough time for a year or so, and then grew stronger than before afterwards.  Am I missing something here?  Can anyone clear this up for me please.[/quote]

    I believe the real world will answer your question within a very short period of time, because Greece will be defaulting.  My personal prediction is before the end of this week, but I suppose they can keep this dead man walking a month or so more if they get creative enough.

    In the meantime, my own personal opinion is that it will be much better for the Greek people if they default, both in the long term and medium term.  Things will be very difficult short term whether they default or not.  Look at Iceland:  they defaulted and so far they have not drifted under the arctic ice. 

    As for the rest of Europe, things may not be so good if Greece defaults because many European banks are holding Greek debt, and those banks are so highly leveraged, that even a small loss will wipe out their equity.  As for depositor’s insurance, there is no such thing, even in the US, so I wouldn’t count on that.  FDIC insurance is a myth that only works when a bank goes bad in good times.  It does not work when a bank goes bad in bad times because in bad times, when one bank goes bad, it takes a slew of others down with it.  Read up on the FDIC.  You will find it does not have the resources to pay but a paltry amount on the deposits it claims to insure. 

    There is a reason why Europe has made an embarrassment out of itself, its currency, its currency union, and its central bank, all in the name of saving Greece, and that reason is because it is not and never has been about Greece.  It is about saving the banks that hold Greek debt. 

    So turn the question around:  How big and bad of a problem does the prospect of Greek default have to be for its debt holders to exert enough pressure on Europe’s monetary authorities to do everything they have done so far (which by the way has not worked and only made matters worse)? 

    Pretty big and bad, is my conclusion. 

     

    • Tue, Sep 06, 2011 - 09:23pm

      #20
      Farmer Brown

      Farmer Brown

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      Johnny Oxygen

    [quote=Johnny Oxygen]

     

    China’s yuan to become reserve currency -Nigeria c.bank chief

    Tue Sep 6, 2011 5:53am GMT
     

     

     

    BEIJING, Sept 6 (Reuters) – It is inevitable that the yuan would grow into a global reserve currency one day, Nigeria Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi said on Tuesday.

     

     

    Sanusi, who is in Beijing, made the remarks a day after he said that Nigeria’s central bank plans to diversify its $33 billion in foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar by switching a tenth of the stockpile into yuan .

     

     

    Sanusi said Standard & Poor’s downgrade of its U.S debt rating last month made it more urgent for Nigeria to diverisfy its reserves, which are mainly invested in the dollar .

     

    Posted today by Sax Player

    [/quote]

    This is fantastic news!  Does this mean I’ll actually stop receiving emails from daughters and other heirs of Nigerian Generals who merely need me to deposit $10,000 with them so I can share in their $2 million inheritance?  I mean now that they’re off the $ bandwagon, and since I don’t hold Yuan, well, those emails should stop.  That is fantastic news indeed! 

    Seriously, do you really think there isn’t anything we don’t know about that may be going on between oil-rich-corrupt-to-the-teeth Nigeria and commodities-in-general–but-especially-energy-starved China that might lead to a Nigerian central banker making these kinds of comments while in Beijing?  And is there any credibility at all to these comments coming from as corrupt a place as Nigeria?

    I don’t mean to criticize everything that your posting. but I’ve got to call a spade a spade and this is just silly. 

     

     

    • Tue, Sep 06, 2011 - 03:50pm

      #15
      Farmer Brown

      Farmer Brown

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      JO,It is clear we disgaree

    JO,

    It is clear we disgaree on the (so-called) threat posed by China.  Let’s just leave it at that.  Also, I wouldn’t believe their GDP figures for a second.  They are even more fabricated than US numbers.

    I do want to clear up one thing:  when I call UST’s the "safest asset in the world" I am referring to two things: 

    The first is the fact that the issuer can print more dollars anytime it wants.  Not every country has that privilege, and the reality is it is impossible for the US to default because of this.  Of course, default can and most likely will come (if we stay on the current path) in another way, and that’s by devaluing the currency.  However, the dollar has already lost 95% of its value, and so far it’s still the world reserve currency, so I wouldn’t hold my breath.

    The second thing is, I am also more specifically referring to US Treasury bills.  Those are 30-180 day bills that pay nothing, but because of their short duration, they are also as risk free as anything can get, without being a gold nugget in your shoe.

    Look at the flattening of the yield curve lately.  Wealth is  rushing into US debt, like it always does in times of risk aversion.  That is because US debt is the only debt in the world issued by the world reserve currency issuer & is printable by the issuer at a moments notice.  It’s not a fair system – in fact it’s outright theft in my opinion, but that’s the system we have and that’s the way it works.  Central Banks back their own confetti with US confetti.  Therefore, in times of stress, market participants go to Confetti #1 and damn the torpedos.  It’s just the way it works.  Everything is a derivative of the US dollar.  In times of risk, wealth migrates to de-derivatized forms.  Just like Dr. M talks about primary forms of wealth (referring to land and such), there is also a primary financial form of wealth and it is the US dollar.  It is an undeserved left-over effect of Bretton Woods, but it still pervades the financial universe we live in.

    Of course, there are many who will claim that Gold is the primary financial form of wealth.  That may be true, but right now we are still living in a fiat world.  And yes, it is possible that when the next crisis hits, that gold won’t go down like it did last time, but I think that is wishful thinking.   There is more damn leverage in the system than any one of us can probably fathom.  We don’t know how much deleveraging will be forced upon market participants this time around, but we do know, or at least I believe, it will be orders worse than the last go-around because we are no longer talking about large banks, but about entire countries, and maybe even one very important currency.  Since gold went down last time, I expect it to go down even more this time.  In the meantime, USTs will go up.  That is why I call them the safest asset in the world (again, short of an Au rock in your shoe). 

    After the deleveraging is complete, I will take all my beliefs and burn them in a trash heap, because I have no idea what the world will look like then.   For now, in this confetti backed world we live in, it pays to have confetti because that’s what’s used to pay when liquidity runs dry.  Gold probably will be the only thing to come out the other side, but it won’t be overnight and I believe there will be excellent opportunities to get some at better proices.

    It’s really not that strange to believe in confetti.  Societies have held all sorts of absurd beliefs before – from sacrficing virgins into volcanoes, to trading Manhattan for a couple of trinkets.  As they say, when in Rome…

    And finally, yes, the Chinese are very smart and they’ve stolen and continue to steal plenty of money from unwitting consumers, but since they have destroyed any and all possibility of trust with this one potential customer (and I would suspect many others), I am now on a never-ending lookout to avoid Chinese made products.  That is a tall order, since they have infected just about every supply chain there is, but its just a second-hand instinct for me now (which ocassionally fails as my recent dissapointments prove).  If they expect to take over the world economically, they really may want to look at other ways of winning consumers. 

    • Mon, Sep 05, 2011 - 08:37pm

      #11
      Farmer Brown

      Farmer Brown

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       Johnny Oxygen wrote:First

     

    [quote=Johnny Oxygen]First off I’m not saying China will do it I’m saying they could if they wanted to.[/quote]

    I do not even think they could do it if they wanted to, for the reasons I outlined.  It would destroy their economy and in doing so, would crash commodities and global equities, igniting a mad dash for safety worldwide – most likely propping up the safest asset in the world, US Treasuries.  Only gold would perhaps do better, though I am not even 100% sure of that.  In 2008 only US Treasuries went up – everything else went down.

    [quote]

    China along with many other countries is fully aware that the all fiat currencies are going to take a hit.[/quote]

    Well, they should – they have one of the "fiatest" of the fiat currencies!  Look, I know the US is screwed, I am not arguing that.  But please don’t make it sound as if the Chinese are Swiss bankers!  That’s one of the things that drives me crazy about the "China bugs".  China is a cauldron of duplicity, simmered in darkness, spiked in opium to keep you from realizing your organs are being carved out of you while you enjoy the pleasantries being touted before you.  In my opinion, they make the Fed look like hard working honest brokers who only want the best for you!

    [quote]They are also aware of the current currency wars. My point is that China knows its going to take a big loss on US treasuries and it knows the game can’t go on forever.[/quote]

    I fully agree with this statement, since they are a front-line warrior in the currency war arena.  I also agree they know they will take a hit on US Treasuries, but not because they are going to try and tank them.  They know they will take a hit bec the only way the US can pay is by devaluing its currency or by austerity that would be so massive, China’s exports would suffer greatly.

    [quote]China is leveraging its loss in US treasuries with gold and the purchase of hard assets like mines and arable land outside of China. The US dollar will continue to sink until it has depriciated so much that their is no possible way for China to break even on their investment.[/quote]

    See here is where I have to disagree strongly.  It’s not really an "investment" when the way you obtained it is by printing your own fiat currency in order to buy it.  It’s more of a stolen item gone bad than an investment.  Their people produced the dollars – by exporting goods to the US.  The Chinese government then stole the dollars from their own  people by printing worthless Yuan and forcing their people to accept the Yuan for dollars, at a predetermined rate, in order to keep the Yuan artificially low compared to the dollar.  This and this only is what has allowed China to accumulate such ridiculous levels of dollars.  They rendered the normal currency-exchange laws that would normally reverse such trade imbalances powerless and have as much if not more  to blame for this mess as the US.  Here is a good article by Michael Pettis who can explain the situation much better than I.

    So I really don’t care if the Chinese don’t get to break even on their so-called investment.  It was an investment as ill-gotten as they come.  Of course, the US is to blame as well for allowing this to happen in the first place.  They probably should not have allowed China into the WTO in the first place. 

    Anyway, now that we are where we are, the only thing that really bothers me is "China bugs" who talk about China as if they were a legitimate, honest player deserving of fair play when they are nothing but.

    [quote]

    At some point losing 30% of your investment or losing 50% won’t matter much. The writing is on the wall. The Dollar is no longer the world reserve currency. Now a power vacuum exists and who doesn’t want to have a piece of the new world reserve pie? IMO that is what the whole BRIC union is about.[/quote]

    Then please send me all your dollars.  I can PM you my account details.  Comon! – The dollar is still the world reserve currency.  I totally agree that it’s days are numbered, or at least they should be, but you are getting waaaay ahead of yourself saying that!  I’d be more worried about the Euro, and I sure wouldn’t touch Yen.  What else is there with the kind of liquidity necessary?  The answer is NOTHING.   There are currencies worthy of holding/investing in – but they do not have the liqudiity necessary.   Like it or not, Uncle Buck has squirrelled into every financial nook and cranny on planet Earth and it will be very hard to replace it, especially since everything else is just as bad or worse!  The BRIC currencies are all fiat – why would they be any better?!  And even if they were to back their curencies with gold, I know I at least would not trust them.  We’ll be back to where we started in no time.  Physical gold is the only currency worth the name.  Everything else are just games, and those games are usually won by the people who write the rules – that means not you or me. 

    [quote]

    You say the FED would pick those treasuies up at bargain prices but you miss the point. No one will wants them. Faith is lost in them and what would the FED use to purchase them? More debt/money?[/quote]

    Exactly.  More debt.  That’s what the system is based on.  I’m not saying I agree with it or that it is sustainable.  I was merely pointing out that even IF China pressed a shotgun to its own left temple and dumped UST’s, and even IF nobody else wanted them, the Fed could still pick them up by printing dollars and hold the price up.  Of course, that entire scenario would be an utter disaster, but my point is that the US has a ready and proven mechanism to handle these things, as disruptive and ultimately painful as it may be.  China on the other hand, would be destroying itself and would get almost nothing in return for the pain it would go through.

    [quote]

    I’m not saying that we are dependent on China nor are they dependent on us. I’m saying that China doesn’t need the US or its debt any longer. They have bigger more long term plans.[/quote]

    If that were true, they wouldn’t continue to keep the Yuan artificially low.  Like Dr. Martenson’s most recent post, Actions Speak Louder than Words.  Well, the Chinese love to bellyache about US debt, but they just love to keep buying dollars by printing Yuan and then using those to buy UST’s.  When they stop doing that, maybe I’ll pay attention.  Until then, that’s the only game they know. 

    [quote]Don’t forget China is a communist country. They don’t need to placate anyone or be democratic in anyway. What the leaders say goes and if people don’t like it so what?[/quote]

    Even communists and other dictators have to feed their people.  Just ask Mubarek, Ghadaffi, the former USSR, and an ash heap of other rulers who finally pissed their people off enough and created conditions so horrid, that they decided to risk death than to accept living under their regimes any longer. Also, heed special attention to China’s mostly-ignored cultural and geographic realities, that I pointed out previously.  It’s not exactly an "I-say-jump-you-ask-how-high" command economy everywhere.  There are winners and losers and for most of China’s history, the outer regions have not been part of China.  If the USSR couldn’t keep it together, I see no reason why the Chinese could expect to do any better. 

    [quote]Your assumption that China produces crap I think is a bit out dated. Their technology is moving along at a much better rate than our is. They have a sea of people that will work much cheaper than most parts of the world whether they work by circumstance or are forced to.[/quote]

    When you’re poor and starving, deciding to work for peanuts is an easy choice. 

    If they’re producing higher-quality goods now, I haven’t seen them.  My most recent dissapoinitng puchase was a set of plastic ice-trays.  They broke in 100’s of pieces upon first use.  If you can’t even make an ice tray, you’re not very far up the tech scale.  My recently intalled curtains started to fall apart for no apparent reason.  Turned out they’re from some factory in China.  I’m out $3,000.  I have a list of crap I’ve bought with the made in China label that has lasted much less than their US Treasuries will last. 

     

    • Mon, Sep 05, 2011 - 05:36pm

      #8
      Farmer Brown

      Farmer Brown

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      earthwise wrote:  So,

    [quote=earthwise]

     

    So, Farmer Brown:

    What you are essentially saying is that China is just as screwed as the US and Europe if not more so.

    Gee, that makes me feel better.

    [/quote]

    Well, there may not be a lot to feel good about, but there are things to feel less bad about, and imagining unecessary doomsday scenarios like the dumping of US Treasuries by the Chinese, is one thing I wouldn’t waste an ounce of sleep over.

    • Mon, Sep 05, 2011 - 04:24pm

      #6
      Farmer Brown

      Farmer Brown

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      Johnny Oxygen wrote: People

    [quote=Johnny Oxygen]

    People talk about a war with the Chinese. They don’t need a war to beat us. All they have to do is wait and we will beat ourselves.

    I’ve said this before. If the Chinese want to become part of the new world reserve currency, along with the rest of the BRICS, all the have to do is dump their 350 billion dollars of US treasuries on the market. The bond market would instantly collapse and the dollar along with it. The Chinese would make their money back in no time at all.

    They have us by the balls not the other way around.

    [/quote]

    JO,

    Sorry but that is totally short-sighted and ignores what is in the best interest of China.  Even if they could do what you think they are capable of doing, it would ruin – no – destroy, their economy.  If they dumped US Treasuries, the RMB would go through the roof, and their export-based economy would fall through the floor.  Factories would close, unemployment would skyrocket, food shortages and civil unrest would abound, and they would probably lose control of the non-core Chinese regions (which is well over 50% of the geographic region we call "China").  In the meantime, the FED would probably pick those Treasuries up at bargain levels and life in the US would go on pretty much the same for the time being.  Also, since the US pretty much just buys crap from China, and not food or energy, I really do not see why we are so "dependent" on them. 

    I really do not understand the fear of China or the awe with their so-called economy, which is totally engineered, centrally-planned, and even more distorted for the public’s consumption than our own BLS and other agency figures.

    China has built an entire economy mostly upon one thing:  the manipulation of their own currency.  In order to maintain its competitive edge (which boils down to compete on price only), China must keep its currency low against the dollar.  The only way to do that when you are running a trade surplus is by printing more of your own currency just so you can buy/sterilize all the dollars coming in, and then use those dollars to invest in US Treasuries. 

    So, this whole imbalance which is most manifest in huge Chinese dollar holdings is in reality the mirror image of the currency depreciation and devaluation (and outright theft really) they have imposed on their own people just to keep their currency low.  In other words, their dollar holdings are their own creation.  If they had allowed their currency to appreciate the moment they started to run a trade surplus, this never would have happened.  Those dollars instead would have stayed in the US or gone to the next 3rd world upstart economy.  Of course, the Chinese didn’t want that.  They chose this outcome and the US let them do it.

    Now both countries are very much screwed, but believe me, the Chinese are just as screwed as the US is, perhaps more.  Here are just a few reasons why:

    China must import food to feed its people.  The US can feed itself twice over, at least.

    China has 1.4 billion people.  The US population of 330 million is really the equivalent of a Chinese rounding error when computing their own population.  Of those 1.4 billion, some 700 million live at poverty levels.  Try imagining what it’s like keeping 700 million (twice the US population) poor, hungry people from riotiong when food runs out, and you may begin to get an inkling of the kind of pressure Chinese authorities live under every day.  Maybe if they just tried free market capitalism without distortions, their people could feed themselves, but of course, that would be thinking way too outside the box for most communist party central planning engineers.  So, they’ll continue planning until it doesn’t work and everything breaks. 

    China is composed of a coastal core region, where the culturally and economically dominant Chinese people live, and several enormous swaths of land, which do not share Chinese culture and wealth like the coastal regions do, and which historically have bounced in and out of the "Regime" depending on when coastal China was strong and when it was not.  Coastal China will do almost anything to keep those regions from breaking away.  These regions include Tibet, which you may have heard about.  They serve as buffer zones for coastal China and are strategically very important, but otherwise produce little.  Part of China’s planning includes making sure these regions do not break away or "cause trouble".  Would like to see how they manage that after they "dump" Treasuries and destroy their own economy. 

    The US on the other hand, is pretty well culturally unified. There are political and religious sectors, but nothing like what is seen in China or other parts of the world for that matter.  Speaking of which, I heard that a former German chancellor today claim that the "Unites States of Europe will happen – it just needs time" or something to that effect.  I couldn’t disagree more.  Europe will never be like the US because it is culturally way too stratified.  The Czechs, Hungarians, Romananians, Germans, Polish, Slovenians, Slovakians, are DIFFERENT peoples with way too different cultural values  and customs – and those are just a few of the most stratified.  They should also celebrate these differences and keep them – that’s what makes the world a great place!  What they need to keep are open borders and free trade.  They’d be better off with independent currencies and no fiscal union – ever!

    Anyway, China is the biggest white elephant the world has ever seen, in my opinion.   Others see a threat.  I see 1.4 billion people exporting crap to the rest of the world just fast enough so as to not starve.  I also see a 1.4 billion person disaster waiting to happen and a country that came very very late to the cheap energy party but is building a cheap-energy dependent nation.

     

     

     

     

     

    • Wed, Aug 31, 2011 - 10:51pm

      #18
      Farmer Brown

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      On second read

    After reading Janszen’s post a second time, I actually did not find it all that mind-blowing.  He does not account for or explain the Japanese experience in any way.

    Also, most of his argument is about the past couple of years, which Mish was right about.  Going back to the GD doesn’t make any sense, even if we’ve hardly had any deflation since then.  That is not the time period Mish is providing a forecast for! 

    I’m calling it a tie in my book, with Mish a slight lead, only because he hasn’t responded to Janszen yet.  I suspect when he does, it will clear up many areas of disagreement.

    • Wed, Aug 31, 2011 - 10:51pm

      #17
      Farmer Brown

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      On second read

    After reading Janszen’s post a second time, I actually did not find it all that mind-blowing.  He does not account for or explain the Japanese experience in any way.

    Also, most of his argument is about the past couple of years, which Mish was right about.  Going back to the GD doesn’t make any sense, even if we’ve hardly had any deflation since then.  That is not the time period Mish is providing a forecast for! 

    I’m calling it a tie in my book, with Mish a slight lead, only because he hasn’t responded to Janszen yet.  I suspect when he does, it will clear up many areas of disagreement.

    • Thu, Aug 18, 2011 - 08:55pm

      #11
      Farmer Brown

      Farmer Brown

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      T&T:  Great post – thanks

    T&T:  Great post – thanks for taking the time to write it. 

    Especially liked the very last sentence, even though this was far from the major point of discussion:

    [quote=timeandtide]. The whole carbon debate should really be about the energy equation rather than this endless red herring of anthropomorphic climate change.[/quote]

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