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    • Mon, Mar 19, 2012 - 02:38am

      #6
      Davos

      Davos

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       confusing — looks like 3

     confusing — looks like 3 of the same threads

     

     I posted this on my blog, and on the DD.

    That said there is a lot of stuff that came out after.

    Blogs: Discerning Fact From Fiction

    Hat Tip newsjunkie over at Jim Quinn’s The Burning Platform.

    I have no idea how to take this.  I’m inclined to think only a moron would toss the election for a war that could shut down the strait where 24% of global oil goes—but he is an (ehem) moron and of course other nations could start it.

    • Sun, Mar 18, 2012 - 11:19pm

      #2
      Davos

      Davos

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      Hey Josey

     I posted this on my blog, and on the DD.

    That said there is a lot of stuff that came out after.

    Blogs: Discerning Fact From Fiction

    Hat Tip newsjunkie over at Jim Quinn’s The Burning Platform.

    I have no idea how to take this.  I’m inclined to think only a moron would toss the election for a war that could shut down the strait where 24% of global oil goes—but he is an (ehem) moron and of course other nations could start it.

     

    • Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 03:00am

      #5
      Davos

      Davos

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      & PS

    & PS it is NOT about peak resources—-it IS all about population. 

    • Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 03:00am

      #4
      Davos

      Davos

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      You might want to watch “A

    You might want to watch “A Crude Awakening”.

     

    Really the entire PO debate is at the PP point right now.  We put out about 82MM b/pd and the globe sucks down 87 MM b/pd.  We’re at peak demand.  Thanks to Globalization which gave China our jobs, and with thos wages they bought MCs and cars.  In 1990 there were 168 miles of paved highway in China and 5.5 million CARS.  In 2011 there were 53,000 thousand miles of paved highway and 219,000,000 VEHICLES that used gas/diesel.  When Bernanke started QEIII hints China decided not to sit on its hands like a potted plant, in February their imports of oil were 39% higher YoY.

    That took a lot of oil off the market.

    Personally I see the risk in PO being as high as the risk of all hell breaking out as nuclear countries vie for limited reserves.  Until then I’m sure we’ll increase the 1m2 rate of cancer in men and the 1 n 3 rate of cancer in women by fracking shale with 596 carcinogens’ that we then dump into “evaporation” pits.

    • Sat, Mar 17, 2012 - 02:47am

      #2
      Davos

      Davos

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      Optimist & “research”

    That post wasn’t written by CM, it was written by thc0655 (another CM‘r). 

    It was a “guest post” or picked up by Lew and turned into one with credit driven back to CM’s site.  

    Usually they contact the author directly, his guys did when they ran my stuff that was published on FSN originally.

    There are:

    1. Optimists
    2. “Delusionalists”

    And then there are the realists.

    An optimist who believes in “unconventional oil reserves” will likely soon likely realize that they were really a delusionalist and then turn realist.

    We are well below 1:10 (1 barrel to get 10). Then there are other resources and waste products.  You can Google Peak Water by Jim Quinn for starters.  You can Google Gasland to get tuned into shale.

    Glad you found the blog, you might want to become immersed in it.
     

     

    • Wed, Mar 14, 2012 - 07:27pm

      #212
      Davos

      Davos

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      On This Day In History…. Gas Prices Have Never Been Higher

    joemanc wrote:
    JAG wrote:

    In the summer of 2008 I was payed $3.98/gal in June, $4/gal in July, and $3.71/gal in August. It was these rising prices, and all the “peak oil is here” talk in the blogosphere that made me start keeping track of the prices in the first place.

    Yesterday, I paid $3.55/gal, which is close to 2008 prices but still below them. Gas is cheaper on the Gulf Coast because all the refineries are here, but I would happily pay more for gas if I didn’t have to live with refineries in the area.

    Your argument is somewhat correct, but also flawed in my view. You earlier mentioned that your dollar buys more gas now than it did in 2008. Correct. But knowing you like to hold on to cash, let’s say you banked away 10K in cash from your business in 2009 and left it in cash, earning we’ll say a paltry .5% interest. How much gas is that 2009 cash buying today? Same thing with cash in 2010…and 2011…I’m not saying cash is bad and gold is great…I own both in somewhat equal amounts, but I hands down favor gold longer term as a store of wealth.

    As far as property taxes…wow, I am jealous…will never see that happen here.

    And maybe I need to shop at BJ’s for pistachios’…Costco raised the price of a bag from $13 to 16, while dropping the size from 4 to 3 lbs about 2 years ago and I haven’t eaten pistachios since.

    • Wed, Mar 14, 2012 - 04:23am

      #9
      Davos

      Davos

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      Before I Jump In & Blindly Answer…

    Let me ask myself—-Is that even a valid question?

    Are we being just a “little myopic” in thinking that that U.S. drivers drove less in 2011?  So that matters?

     

    I really don’t think people grasp the severity of this.  We gave our jobs to China and they bought cars….  There are 1.3-1.6 billion Chineese.

    In 1990 there were 5.5 million cars [please note cars not vehicles that consume gas/oil, just cars] in China

    In 1990 there were 168 miles of paved interstate in China.

    In 2011 there were 200 million vehicles [not cars alone, but trucks, busses, cars, suvs, motercycles, & rvs] in China

    in 2011 there were 53,000 miles of paved interstate.

    Do I really care what (as CM would say) ‘China’s [poplulations] rounding error’ [US drivers] drove in miles?  Well, other than the roads are less croweded—Uh nope.

     

    Total World 3611.8 3601.6 3584.2 3701.1 3877.0 3906.6 3916.2 3904.3 3933.7 3831.0 3913.7 2.2% 100.0% Production

    Total World 3571.6 3597.2 3632.3 3707.4 3858.7 3908.5 3945.3 4007.3 3996.5 3908.7 4028.1 3.1% 100.0% Consumption

    Total Asia Pacific 991.1 997.3 1025.5 1061.6 1128.3 1144.5 1163.5 1201.9 1201.9 1203.8 1267.8 5.3% 31.5%

    totalUS————— 884.1 884.1 884.9 900.7 936.5 939.8 930.7 928.8 875.8 833.2 850.0 2.0% 21.1%

    http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2011.pdf

    • Tue, Mar 13, 2012 - 03:14am

      #2
      Davos

      Davos

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      “Do something, do anything” — Desperation

      “Sterilized fx: They may attract attention and make people feel good, but ultimately they’re all show and no dough”~The Federal Reserve Bank Minneapolis

     

    If they don’t work, why do them?

    In the end, as described above, sterilized fx interventions—like their cinematic counterparts—are all show and no dough. Economic theory and empirical evidence tell us so. So why do them? At this point, a perfectly good answer would be to throw up one’s hands and say, “I don’t know.” But let’s take a look at a couple of commonly cited rationales. Link to FRB Paper

     

     

     

    • Mon, Mar 12, 2012 - 06:14pm

      #197
      Davos

      Davos

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      Since 1999

    Actually, I have records going that far back.  A year or two ago I did a comparison from 2003 forward.  Everything doubled, some stuff  went up 3+++ times.

    We have tons of small businesses—all but a handfull are feeling pain.  I talk with owners weekly.

    Common sense dictates that taking 86% of the purchasing value out of your dollar is the same as stealing 86 cents and leaving you with 14 cents.  That said, everything has to cost more.  Glad you are charging more and getting it!!!  That is good news!!!

    • Mon, Mar 12, 2012 - 02:37am

      #193
      Davos

      Davos

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      JAG wrote:Davos

    JAG wrote:
    Davos wrote:

     The Deflation Argument—there is none!

    All right buddy, where is the inflation that you have been warning about for 4 years…there is none! 

    I’ve kept track of all my regular expenses for the last four years and the numbers don’t lie…there is no price inflation in the things that matter.

    • My dollar buys more groceries than it did in 2008.
    • My dollar buys more electricity than it did in 2008.
    • My dollar buys more gasoline than it did in 2008.
    • My dollar buys more natural gas than it did in 2008.
    • My dollar buys more home than it did in 2008.

    Food, energy, & shelter are less expensive now than they were 4 years ago. Can you say that about any other 4 year period in your adult life?

    I didn’t think so.

    So again, where is that inflation? It’s history.

    Best…Jeff

    P.S. It’s funny to me that on a site whose motto is “The next twenty years will not be like the last twenty years,” everyone is still projecting the past into the future.

     

    2008—WT?

    From the peak of the commodity spike in 2008?  Why not select 2009?  If your dollar buys more today than in 2009 I’m moving next door to you and shopping where you do 🙂

    • Silver is up 155% since March 9, 2009
    • Overall food prices are up 35% since March 9, 2009
    • Beef prices are up 72% since March 9, 2009
    • Gasoline prices are up 132% since March 9, 2009
    • Corn prices are up 70% since March 9, 2009

    Gas 2008 forward to today…

    Homes?

      

    Use Warren Buffett’s own words…The dollar has lost 86% of its value since 1966.  Anything that you use to purchase goods and services with that leaked 86% of its fuel is “inflationairy.”

    But hey, don’t believe me/your friend here.  The alternative is to believe Bernanke…he says inflation is 2.2%.  Has he been right on anything?  Ever?

     

Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 40 total)