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    • Mon, Sep 14, 2020 - 10:47am

      #14

      davefairtex

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      interesting signal

    So the big money comes 12 months from now.  2 out of 3 times.

    FWIW this feels a bit more like 2000 than 2008.  And definitely it doesn’t feel like 2012.  So – probably a valid signal, and probably case 2000.

    If history rhymes, we may re-test the highs in SPX, but not in NDX.  So the thing to short, probably, is NDX, since it has definitely outperformed.

    But maybe wait for a re-test of the highs?

    I’m not 100% sure we get there.

    I re-added my TSLA put on today’s rally.  Should be fun.  Only October though.

    Musk tweeted today about exciting battery news coming soon.  That guy is a one-man pump-and-dump operation.  He still has that secondary to finish, I guess.

    • Sun, Sep 13, 2020 - 10:18am

      #3

      davefairtex

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      still no data

    All I ever see from you is narrative.  No data.  Just narrative.

    Not compelling.

    • Sun, Sep 13, 2020 - 09:19am

      #11

      davefairtex

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      position sizes, assets = bets

    JAG-

    My two cents is to keep your position sizes low enough so that your emotions don’t take over and make it difficult for you to make (generally) unemotional choices.

    I think the herd thing is right, especially now.  Armstrong thinks we’re in a correction.  If we are, then hanging on is the right move.  Certainly there will be increasing chaos in the next few months.  That’s probably risk off.

    There might be another opportunity post-election for another big volatility trade, but we’ll have to see how that goes.  Armstrong’s volatility indicators are suggesting this.

    Assets are what you get to buy with deferred consumption.  They are all directional bets, however.  A bank account is a bet on the buck – and recession (“everything else is too expensive”), rental property a bet on inflation and also on your local economy, risk assets are a bet on growth, bonds are a bet, mostly, on recession, but also on the buck.  And gold is a bet on a collapse of confidence in government, and somewhat on inflation.

    Puts and calls are also bets, but they have this annoying time fuse to them.  They force you to be correct both in direction and in timeframe.  Mostly, you have to be right in a near-term timeframe for them to pay off.  And they have to be relatively surprising events, otherwise the event is already largely priced into the premium.  So – surprising, near-term events that you’re right about isn’t the easiest thing to nail repeatedly.

    I’m still not sure what bitcoin is a bet on.  Maybe a bet on capital controls?

    We need to see it through a full cycle first.

    • Sun, Sep 13, 2020 - 04:19am

      #7

      davefairtex

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      Pento’s Model

    Michael Pento gave a good interview with Greg Hunter this weekend.  I like Pento’s approach to prognostication.  Namely – rather than pontificating where SPX will be at end of year, and saying what “must” happen – he just looks forward just a few months based on a model that projects either inflation/deflation, as well as growth.

    Right now, he is projecting deflation, and he sees the market heading lower.

    Here are his model inputs [link below].  I think I will go run an experiment.  I’m just guessing predicting GDP isn’t all that hard.  [Update: it isn’t; although GDP just represents activity, which can be spoofed by money printing and/or debt bubbles.]

    https://pentoport.com/managed-accounts/

    The inflation/deflation bit – I’m not even sure what timeseries to use.  CPI?  PPI?

    Blue line is the forecast for “real GDP”, black is GDPC1: projecting a bounceback above zero anyway by Q3, at least according to the current numbers.  Series GDPC1, understanding all the flaws in both the GDP model, and in the inflation measure used to adjust it.

    For inflation: Fed balance sheet & total bank credit – now flat.  No monetization, and no big burst of new credit.  This suggests deflation (i.e. when the credit impulse flattens suddenly, that’s deflationary.)

    • Sat, Sep 12, 2020 - 07:50am

      #2

      davefairtex

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      silver chart

    Sorry for missing the silver chart.  I was working on it.  Something I said to JAG inspired me to more heavily weight inputs from recent timeframes vs the very early stuff and see how that affected the training sessions.  It was…helpful but not revolutionary.

    You can see silver is on the edge of a bearish reversal, even though the candle print is mildly positive.

    • Sat, Sep 12, 2020 - 01:59am

      #4

      davefairtex

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      TSLA, shale, etc

    lambertad-

    I must confess, I missed the significance of the Ticker Tocker company name, although it did impinge on my consciousness briefly as “that’s an odd name”.  🙂

    My vague sense is that there is a metric crap-ton of games being played with the TSLA stock price.   Why?  To what end?  Musk is clearly the darling of someone very powerful.  He can tweet madly and manipulate his stock price, and the SEC gives him a pass.  TSLA needs cash?  Stock price magically doubles (on a 5:1 split!), he issues a secondary – enough to almost pay off all his corporate debt – stock tumbles again.

    My main focus was the “headline spin” game being played, not the shilling going on underneath the covers – which is yet another game too.  “How to turn a projected 50% downturn into a 5% blip, and make people feel like cows in a herd if they sell.”

    It is in someone’s interest to keep Musk and TSLA aloft.  Who they are, and to what end, I don’t know.

    I felt the same way about shale a few years back.  Shale felt like an act of national policy, papered over with a bunch of market hooey.  Shale was a way for the US to drop the price of global oil by about 50%, with a relatively small cash investment.  If you ran the “global order”, throwing a few hundred billion away on US shale (thus dropping the price of the marginal barrel by 50% for 5 years), well it was the deal of the century.

    I mean, if I ran the global order, and I could orchestrate this, I’d consider this a huge victory.  All those oil exporters lose, and the major industrialized nations all win.

    Gotta keep it secret though, or else it won’t work.  “Hey, its not me – its market forces.  Can’t control market forces.  Ever so sorry about that.”

    • Thu, Sep 10, 2020 - 01:07pm

      #25

      davefairtex

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      well thats cool

    Well RandomMike that’s pretty cool.  Lifetime supply.

    Does the saline act as a preservative?  Presumably boiling kills everything.

    Next time you get some sort of ILI, you can stuff this liquid seaweed up your nose three times a day and it should theoretically chop 3 days off your symptoms.

    And with a few tubes of that apple-flavored ivermectin horse paste, you should be able to crush any SC2 that comes within spitting distance.  So to speak.

    And as mentioned by Mpup, it can also double as lube.  Just in case.  🙂

    Really astonishing stuff.  Simple remedies that should really do the trick.

    The silver solution was pretty awesome too.

    • Wed, Sep 09, 2020 - 10:08pm

      #2

      davefairtex

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      are you sure you read this study?

    I ask this, because the study doesn’t say what you think it says.

    What it says is:

    If you are asymptomatic, you end up developing T-cell immunity.

    If you have moderate to severe disease, you end up developing B-cell immunity.

    What’s more, asymptomatics don’t generate B-cell immunity, and moderate to severe patients don’t generate T-cell immunity.

    What’s more, it appears that the T-cell immunity is what keeps you asymptomatic.  That’s certainly the outcome I’d like to have.

    These data therefore revealed that albeit the failure in mounting SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral immunity, asymptomatic or mild symptomatic patients were able to induce a profound virus-specific cellular (TH1 and CD8+T cell) immunity

    It doesn’t make any claim as to how long lasting any immunity happens to be.

    The paper does also hint that T-cell immunity from the common cold might offer protection from SC2.

    My interpretation:  it appears that T-cell immunity keeps you asymptomatic, while the B-cell immunity is the body’s backup plan – if you don’t generate those T-cells that keep you asymptomatic.

    I encourage you to read the “Discussion” section, starting on line 274:

    In contrast to humoral immunity, we found that the virus-specific TH1 and CD8+T cell immune responses were rapidly induced and sustained in asymptomatic or mild  symptomatic patients as compared to patients with moderate or severe disease, which presumably protect them from progressing to severe COVID-19. We also envision that the rapid and robust virus-specific TH1and CD8+T cell responses may effectively curtail the SARS-CoV-2 replication, which results in the inefficient viral antigen production and limits the GC reaction that requires sufficient antigen stimulation.

    • Wed, Sep 09, 2020 - 02:36pm

      #3

      davefairtex

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      speak with an MD dot com

    Warning: what follows is not medical advice.  I’m not a doctor.

    You mentioned hydroxychloroquine.  You might consider the Zelenko Protocol.    The Zelenko Protocol = Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, Zinc.

    Study here:

    https://thezelenkoprotocol.com/

    A search turned up Jerome Corsi’s page on how to get a prescription for the Zelenko Protocol via a telemedicine interview.  The doctors there can presumably sort through your situation and give you the proper treatment.

    https://corsination.com/covid-19/

    If you don’t want to go through Corsi’s site (which has some possibly helpful video interviews on the details of said protocol), you can save time and go direct to the telemedicine site at the link below:

    https://speakwithanmd.com/

    I haven’t tried the service.  If you use them, report back, I’d be curious to know how it turned out for you.  I’m not affiliated with them in any way.  Supposedly they can overnight the prescription to you.  (I’m guessing that service isn’t cheap.  But what can you do?)

    As I said at the top: I’m not a doctor.  This isn’t medical advice.  But I understand the doctors at this site are comfortable prescribing the Zelenko Protocol to COVID-19 patients under the right circumstances.

    Oh, and Chris’s new video today talks about several studies confirming that vitamin-D helps to avoid bad outcomes for COVID-19, and there’s another video posted here on site which provides the same information from a different angle.

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/vitamin-d-first-clinical-trial-video/

    Hope that helps.

    • Wed, Sep 09, 2020 - 10:55am

      #23

      davefairtex

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      peaceful, productive, and the upcoming coup

    TLWA1879-

    The PP community is 50/50 split on red leaning/blue leaning, so why spew the talking points from your team that will never convince the other team. Its not peaceful, its not productive, it doesn’t help me design my life to be as happy and healthy as possible under the current circumstances of the world.

    I understand that peaceful and productive discussions are important to you.  But I think you are mistaken about what is really happening in this discussion.  For my part I’m not trying to convince anyone to vote a particular way.  In normal times, voting would matter, but right now, I’m not sure it does; my primary concern is not about who gets the most electoral votes, but rather, assessing the chances of a non-voluntary transfer of power occurring, and how that scenario would that play out.

    I think this subject is a lot like peak oil.  With peak oil, we have a choice: we can ignore peak oil and pretend it won’t happen (business as usual, forevermore – very peaceful), or we can try to read the tea leaves and see how things are going to break.  And when.  And then figure out we might want to do to prepare for it.

    Likewise, I assess that the prospect of a coup, and a possible follow-on civil war in response, is getting more likely as we get closer to November 3rd.  People – important people – are talking about “refusing to concede the election under any circumstances.”  That’s no longer an election, and if the military, or para-military forces are used to enforce this non-concession and they install their candidate into the Oval Office, that would be a non-voluntary transfer of power.

    And everyone would be forced to pick sides.  The Army.  The local police.  The National guard.  The Secret Service.  Homeland security.  The FBI.  The CIA.  The NSA.  And individuals too.

    Me, I’d like to have some sort of plan in place in case this goes down.  I wouldn’t want to be caught unprepared and surprised by events this earth-shaking.  Would you?

    Lots of violence is happening right now, funded by…somebody.  The violence is not spontaneous, it is organized.  Fighters in black garb are bused from state to state, to execute their missions.  That’s just reality.  Who you vote for won’t change these facts on the ground.  Nor will it change the reaction by the (most likely enraged) other side if they believe the election was stolen – by force – for the first time in US history.

    So let me agree with you again.  This is an unfortunate subject.  It is not peaceful at all.  Nor is it productive.  Civil wars are never productive.  The only thing worse than talking about such a disagreeable subject (in my opinion) would be to stick our head in the sand and pretend its not possible, and as a result, be (individually) surprised and unprepared for such an outcome, if it actually occurs.

    I really want the vote to go well, and for the loser to concede once the votes are counted.  That’s the usual process – the peaceful transfer of power that has happened for 240 years.  I’m just not sure that will happen this time.

Viewing 10 posts - 21 through 30 (of 3,064 total)