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I added some XLF puts. June again.
Sounds like a good play.
I am sitting on SPX June puts half already below the strike (put them on after sending my coronoavirus Alert), half “crash” puts at 2700 (which I’ve painfully held since last fall).
Not a ton…just enough to keep me focused.
Went with June as I didn’t want to pay a ton for time. Thought this should all be tipped one way or the other by then.
The big question, of course, is not only what will the Fed do, but what can they do? How much does fraudulently goosing stocks higher really do when every Wall Street bank and HFT outfit has decided it’s time to suck cash out of the market?
This is where we find out if the Fed’s magic printing press actually has what it takes to dominate the market. If not, the only and most important narrative supporting this “”market”” shreds like tissue paper caught in a downpour.
When the story goes ‘pop’ goes the bubble.
A pandemic has the capability to do that. Something about the vast gulf between the reality of a lethal microbe stalking the land and the Fed’s insistence that maintaining the illusion of normality via elevated stock prices…it’s a tension that cannot be maintained indefinitely and which possesses a metric megaton of potential energy.
That’s my theory.
Yes, let’s get something going. I’d join in when I could.
That move in JNK has my attention. Nothing can really get cracking here until and unless the crud sells off too.
I do think this coronavirus is the exact sort of a black swan event these bloated markets are poorly designed to handle.
Looks like an entire city of 11 million people is now in lock down. This confirms what I said about the statistics of this coronavirus – very favorable for a pandemic.
- This reply was modified 1 month ago by Chris Martenson.
Here’s the basic info on the coronavirus from the CDC…mostly these are the source of the common cold, and derive their name from the spiky protrusions on their outside coating that is said to resemble a crown (hence “Corona”):
Common human coronaviruses
Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people get infected with these viruses at some point in their lives. These illnesses usually only last for a short amount of time. Symptoms may include
- runny nose
- sore throat
- a general feeling of being unwell
Human coronaviruses can sometimes cause lower-respiratory tract illnesses, such as pneumonia or bronchitis. This is more common in people with cardiopulmonary disease, people with weakened immune systems, infants, and older adults.
Other human coronaviruses
Two other human coronaviruses, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have been known to frequently cause severe symptoms. MERS symptoms usually include fever, cough, and shortness of breath which often progress to pneumonia. About 3 or 4 out of every 10 patients reported with MERS have died. MERS cases continue to occur, primarily in the Arabian Peninsula. SARS symptoms often included fever, chills, and body aches which usually progressed to pneumonia. No human cases of SARS have been reported anywhere in the world since 2004.
Human coronaviruses most commonly spread from an infected person to others through the air by coughing and sneezing close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands touching an object or surface with the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose, or eyes before washing your hands rarely, fecal contamination
In the United States, people usually get infected with common human coronaviruses in the fall and winter. However, you can get infected at any time of the year. Most people will get infected with one or more of the common human coronaviruses in their lifetime. Young children are most likely to get infected. However, people can have multiple infections in their lifetime.
How to protect yourself
There are currently no vaccines available to protect you against human coronavirus infection. You may be able to reduce your risk of infection by doing the following
wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds
avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands
avoid close contact with people who are sick
For information about hand washing, see CDC’s Clean Hands Save Lives!
How to protect others
If you have cold-like symptoms, you can help protect others by doing the following
- stay home while you are sick
- avoid close contact with others
- cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze, then throw the tissue in the trash and wash your hands
clean and disinfect objects and surfaces
There are no specific treatments for illnesses caused by human coronaviruses. Most people with common human coronavirus illness will recover on their own. However, you can do some things to relieve your symptoms take pain and fever medications (Caution: do not give Aspirin to children) use a room humidifier or take a hot shower to help ease a sore throat and cough.
If you are mildly sick, you should drink plenty of liquids stay home and rest. If you are concerned about your symptoms, you should see your healthcare provider.
Again. This could be a big deal. We just don’t know what the epidemiology of this thing is, and its already spread to the US.
The only way to stop it now would be to completely halt travel.
That would, of course, be bad for “the economy” so nobody wants to do that. After all, there’s nothing more important than assuring that more fantasy money digits can exchange hands, right?
I’m not sure why,
Because (1) they make money doing it and (2) there are no consequences for price manipulation.
I really enjoyed that post Peter. So refreshing to see someone, anyone, using the basic logic of our times to expose the fallacies.
Of course no political party will touch the “no growth” rail because the marketing machine has inserted the pro growth meme very deeply into the electorate’s brains.
Thanks for writing this up. Go team!
Reading between the lines, Armstrong believes that one or more banks in Europe are going to go tits up (possibly: DB), the insiders at the US banks are aware of this, nobody knows who (in the US, or Europe) is exposed (net short) to this risk (possibly via credit default swaps), and so banks have stopped lending to other banks because of this.
This has been my view from the beginning. It’s utterly, completely, totally ludicrous to suggest (as Powell did) that the banking system was suffering form a shortage of excess reserves. Puh-leeze! At $1,300 billion they are $1,270 billion more than used to be sufficient before the GFC hit.
That ain’t it.
Instead when banks won’t lend to each other overnight its because they don’t trust each other enough to do it.
That’s it. Full stop.
Which means they know something we don’t. And it means Powell is a lying sack.
And it means this whole thing could go 2008 nuclear at any time, and the system won’t be able to absorb it. So the Fed is fighting like crazy to prevent that sort of thing from ever getting started.
Which I suppose they should, but they also shouldn’t be in that position in the first place.
Summary: Mistakes were made.