Forum Replies Created
Nice ending chart, Dave. And yes, I won’t hold you responsible if my bet based on this chart blows up… but frankly, it looks likely that the unpleasantness you anticipate might have already occurred. Lots of positive divergences out there….
Thanks for posting the chart of BTC. Support/resistance levels around $6200 and $4500 pop out to me. $6200 seems baked in, $4500 maybe. But given the rampant interest in BTC here (heh), please post BTC charts as regularly as oil, SPX and gold…
As the old Chinese saying has it, “The dead pig isn’t afraid of boiling water.”
Dave, glad you mentioned bitcoin. No need to repeat my case for it, it’s in the archives here….
Dave, you raise an interesting topic. I would argue that Chinese culture has a long history of rules and laws (ultimately tracing back to the Emperor) but everyone serves the interests of the emperor–now the Party, which has neatly replaced the Imperial structure with a party structure along similar lines. Petty crimes are dealt with by a judiciary process that appears similar to western legal systems but once it becomes important–i.e. it reflects on the Party–then there is no real rule of law in China. Hence the 1 million uighur Muslims in concentration camps–oops, re-education camps….
In other words the “rule of law” will always be contingent in China rather than an absolute. Hence the impossibility of a trade deal without the US holding unilateral rights to impose crushing tariffs if China backslide/ignores what they agreed to.
On a related topic I mention in this week’s podcast: China is the only wannabe-superpower that pegs its currency to another superpower’s currency. So how “super”is your power if you’re too weak and fragile to even have a free-floating currency? China Bulls have no answer, at least as far as I’ve seen.
Agreed–glad you are holding the crown in abeyance for now–the big tests for markets, incl. BTC, are still ahead.
I have no doubt "players" will trigger a crash or three in BTC et al. because it's profitable to sell at the top, crash the price, trigger sells, and then scoop up cheap BTC, then manipulate it higher. Rinse and repeat, that's been the MO since the 1920s.
It's worth studying the chart of gold after the 2008 swoon/sell-off. Gold got hit as people dumped their assets to cover their liabilities, but then gold soon recovered and hit new highs within a relatively short span of time. If we do get a market crash, maybe the same thing will happen to gold and BTC, and if so, then gold would "go on sale" for a brief period of time.The question boils down to: what matters most going forward? I read all the skeptics of cryptos, and I am amazed at the implicit assumption that BTC et al. are somehow more dangerous and risky than the guaranteed-to-collapse status quo. I have to wonder what skeptics will think when the status quo of fiat credit implodes. Which was riskier? I myself think healthy soil is "wealth," ditto wine in a cellar, solar panels, communities that know how to get stuff done, etc., but I also see a role for new forms of money that will naturally arise as the existing forms of money fail catastrophically. That BTC is being manipulated doesn't surprise me, but it's not the key dynamic going forward IMO.Just as a reminder: I laid out the case for following cryptos closely last June 10 here at PP.com when BTC was $580 and its market cap was $9 billion. Now it's $150 billion, which is still mere signal-noise in a global economy with $330 trillion (yes, T) of "wealth" sloshing around. We're more than halfway to my crazy forecast of $17,000, and I doubt CME futures or manipulation are the key dynamics going forward.
thanks for the explanation of volume, Dave. I don't know if you have an acct with a US based exchange like Coinbase, Kraken, etc., but they appear to be highly regulated already–lots of requirements are already in place. My sense is non-US exchanges could be unregulated and therefore opaque. I doubt Coinbase (with 13 M users now) would play fast and loose.
But we have to remind ourselves: BTC is more or less an open market, so there are lots of unknowns and big swings. This is what characterizes open markets. We've had managed markets for so many years, an open market looks "dangerous." Meanwhile, it's the managed markets that are never allowed to drop that are becoming systemically risky.
PaulJam, I doubt anyone has the magic required to pick the top of anything. All we can do is be alert to long-term trend reversals–but that takes patience, as short-term reversals in BTC have been very common–as befits a low-float market (i.e. high volatility).
I saw someone repost an old tweet from 2011 in which an early buyer of BTC (6 cents per BTC) regretted selling at 30 cents, as now it was $8 (in 2011)… heh… another reader regretted selling BTC he bought for $700 at $1700.
The problem is trend reversal systems might well issue false signals in BTC, as it often drops 30% and then bounces right back to new highs. Stop-clearing declines are part of the territory.
There's no reason to sell BTC if the L-T trend keeps marching higher.
Maybe bitcoin is an NSA-coded front for OPEC and the electricity utilities to generate insane demand that then drives up consumption, with profits to follow accordingly. (tongue slightly in cheek…)
Thanks for ringing the bell at the top, Dave. 🙂 That will save me a lot of grief. The whole parlor game of picking the top of a parabolic run-up is anxiety producing because I'm always wrong about how high the bubble can go. I thought NASDAQ was a bubble about to pop at 2K, ditto the SSEC/Shanghai index at 2K. Both topped 5K. I also thought the housing bubble would pop in early 2005, nope, ran like a banshee for another couple years.
sidenote: from what I gather, US volume is only 25% of the cryptos market. Japan and S. Korea are the big players, as both nations have effectively legalized cryptos. It is somewhat ironic that Ms. Watanabe and Ms. Kim hold the reins, while the CME and hedges here are bit players. Food for thought.