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    The Fed Is Lying To Us

    "When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, October 18, 2019, 4:23 PM

The recent statements from the Federal Reserve and the other major world central banks (the ECB, BoJ, BoE and PBoC) are alarming because their actions are completely out of alignment with what they’re telling us.

Their words seek to soothe us that “everything’s fine” and the global economy is doing quite well. But their behavior reflects a desperate anxiety.

Put more frankly; we’re being lied to.

Case in point: On October 4, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell publicly claimed the US economy is “in a good place”. Yet somehow, despite the US banking system already having approximately $1.5 trillion in reserves, the Fed is suddenly pumping in an additional $60 billion per month to keep things propped up.

Do drastic, urgent measures like this reflect an economy that’s “in a good place”?

The Fed’s Rescue Was Never Real

Remember, after a full decade of providing “emergency stimulus measures” the US Federal Reserve stopped its quantitative easing program (aka, printing money) a few years back.

Mission Accomplished, it declared. We’ve saved the system.

But that cessation was meaningless. Because the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped right in to take over the Fed’s stimulus baton and started aggressively growing its own balance sheet — keeping the global pool of new money growing.

Let’s look at the data. First, we see here how the Fed indeed stopped growing its balance sheet in 2014:

Fed balance sheet chart

And we can note other important insights in this chart.

For starters, you can clearly see how in 2008, the Fed printed up more money in just a few weeks than it had in the nearly 100 years of operations prior.

The flat parts of the curve in this chart are were the Fed paused its printing efforts. And at each of these plateaus, without the tailwind of fresh new hundreds of $billions created from thin air, the equity markets stopped rising and even (gasp!) threatened to decline.

So what did the Fed do in response? It resumed the money printing.

The above chart is really a monument to failure.  The initial $trillions of printed money didn’t solve things, and so more printed $trillions followed.

Every trick in the book has been used.  QE. Operation Twist. Jawboning by Bernanke, Yellen and now Powell. More jawboning and tweets from the President and his administration. And now, fresh interest rate cuts and a resumption of QE (but don’t call it that!) by the Fed.

Collectively, these efforts have horsewhipped stocks and bonds higher and higher over the past decade — which was the intent. But it seems the higher they go (and thus further distorted from their underlying valuation fundamentals), the Fed becomes ever more frightened of a correction.

So now let’s look at what happened after the Fed passed along the money printing baton to the ECB.

We can clearly see in the chart below that when the Fed stopped its printing in 2014, the ECB stepped right in and carried things on until this year:

ECB balance sheet chart

During the years of ECB printing (and printing by other world central banks) stocks and bonds continued powering higher. That is, until the ECB slowed its efforts in late 2018, as the Federal Reserve was raising its federal funds rate.

You see, 2019 was supposed to be the year when the major central banks were supposed to start unwinding their massive balance sheets in earnest. And, in doing so, start to undo the massive market distortions caused by their prior actions.

And what happened in late 2018? The markets started rolling over fast and hard.

Panicked, the central banks have rushed back to “rescue” the system. And in the process, are showing that they’ll likely never “unwind” the $trillions they’ve been printing from thin air.

Looking again at the Fed’s balance sheet:

Fed balance sheet 2016-2019

We see that, starting in 2017, the Fed began the slow process of trying to remove some of the liquidity it has injected into the system over the past decade.

It didn’t get very far.

Worried about recessionary signs and wobbly stocks (still within a few percentages of their all-time highs, mind you), the Fed’s most recent actions have undone 5 months of ‘tightening’ in just five blistering weeks of panic.

It’s enormously concerning that the stock market is now the sole focus of central banking.  The stock market is a terrifically poor instrument by which to try and guide anything (except the growth in apparent wealth of the ultra-rich – it’s very good at that).

Remember, the Fed stopped printing in and began raising rates in order to build up some wiggle room to deal with the next recession when it inevitably arrives.

But that never came to pass.

The last rate hike was in January and the Fed is now back to lowering rates. With the federal funds rate at a measly 2.0% today and likely headed lower from here, the Fed has practically no wiggle room to speak of at this point:

Effective Federal Funds Rate chart

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie”

The above is a quote from Claude Junker, of the EU technocracy, explaining (in 2014) why he believed lying is necessary during financial emergencies.

Fast forward to last week. When Jerome Powell tried to explain why the Fed is suddenly back in the business of printing $60 billion per month (out of thin air) to buy more US Treasury bills, he came off sounding like he’d ripped a page out of Junker’s playbook.

Is he now lying because “It’s serious”?

“I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis,” he said. “Neither the recent technical issues nor the purchases of Treasury bills we are contemplating to resolve them should materially affect the stance of monetary policy.”

“In no sense, is this QE,” Powell said in a moderated discussion after delivering his speech.

(Source – Bloomberg)

Not QE?

Well, what about the fact that the Fed is conjuring $60 billion of new money into existence each month and shoving that into the banking system?

And what about the fact that these new Quantities of money are Easing financial conditions and expanding the Fed’s balance sheet again?

You mean other than those similarities, it’s definitely not QE, Jerome?

Even Wall Street agrees with me:

“I think what the Fed Chairman decides to call it is inconsequential,” Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist for U.S. institutional equities at INTL FCStone told MarketWatch. “From what’s been discussed, it’s exactly what was once called QE. They would be buying securities and increasing liquidity and that is easing. However you want to refer to it, ultimately it’s supportive of equities,” he said.

Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading said in an interview that balance-sheet expansion may be different because it will involve the purchasing of short-term government debt rather than long-term debt, but that the effect is to enable private banks to maintain larger balance sheets and take on more risk. “This is very QE-like,” he said.

(Source – MarketWatch)

Yes, this is “very QE-like.”  Indistinguishably QE-like.

Further, it has to be noted that the decision to suddenly restart the QE program was made mid-cycle, that is between FOMC meetings.  This is a good indicator that things are “serious”, as the Fed typically doesn’t like to appear as if it’s been caught off-guard.

So, from my perch: something BIG and concerning is afoot in the economy, the Fed is secretly panicking, and they’re lying to us about it.

Things Are Now “Serious”

Here in late 2019, both the Federal Reserve and the ECB are now both easing again – or back to ‘fraudulent money printing’ as I prefer to label it.

Perhaps a definition is in order. A fraud is meant to deceive while removing something of value from one or more parties.

When printing money, the central banks say they are doing it to protect the economy, jobs and the financial system.

But what’s actually happening is that wealth is flowing like a raging river towards a select few individuals and corporations.

It’s critical to understand that the central banks cannot print up prosperity. All they can do, being redistributive organizations, is take purchasing power away from one side and hand it to another.

So the key question to be asking now is:  Who’s winning and who’s losing?

Well, here in the US, we already know that it’s the tippy-top 0.1% that is doing almost all of the ‘winning.’  The next 0.9% are doing pretty well, too.  But by the time we get just slightly below the top 10%, we run out of “winners”.

Ergo, the bottom ~90% of us are the losers:

Distribution of Stocks by Wealth Percentile

This enrages me enormously.  It’s such an obvious scam to reveal, but somehow the US press is entirely NOT up to the task.

For some insane reason, it has become normalized for the ultra-wealthy to grab everything for themselves, leaving little left over for today’s lower classes or for future generations.

When did such magnificent greed become normal?  How is any of this okay with anybody?

Increasingly, we’re seeing that more and more people are NOT OK with that. The Yellow Vest protests in France, the uprisings in Ecuador and Hong Kong, the climate protests, the Extinction Rebellion movement — all of these are forms of rejection of destructive blind greed.

They are also predictive signs that our social and political systems are becoming badly stressed.  When people finally start losing hope, they turn on their “leadership” and revolt.

In other words, It’s now becoming serious.

By now the central banks should have realized that their efforts to perpetually boost asset prices are unraveling the main social contracts upon which our very social stability and relative political peace rest.

But if they have, they aren’t demonstrating any signs of it. Instead, they’re still pretending everything is “in a good place”

The core predicament facing the Fed and its central banking brethren is that reality can be delayed but not dismissed.

The pressures of instability continue to mount exponentially the more the central planners try to contain and (literally) paper over them.

It’s no longer an issue of keeping stock prices attractively high. It’s about accelerating social inequality, the rejection of capitalism and globalization, rising geopolitical divisions, resource scarcity, and the loss of liberty, health and happiness. The central planners’ extractive policies are now manifesting in all of these ills.

How much longer can they keep the system from exploding outside their control?

In Part 2: Why The Fed Will Fail, we look closely at the key economic indicators that are convincing us that there’s not much time left before things violently correct.

At tipping points like now, it’s critical to remember that cycle ends are processes (i.e. slow), but reversals are events. They happen fast.

And once they start, only those who have already prepared in advance are ready for what comes next.

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).

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73 Comments

  • Fri, Oct 18, 2019 - 8:35pm

    #1

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1540

    5+

    Lying by the Fed is not a big deal

    I’m sure somebody could have written an article like this with the same title four times a year for at least the last 15 years and had plenty of fresh material each time. And yet, “we the people” couldn’t care less.

    Sad. We deserve everything that’s coming to us, and so do the central bankers.

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  • Fri, Oct 18, 2019 - 10:30pm

    #2
    centroid

    centroid

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 16 2014

    Posts: 9

    12+

    All roads lead back to the fiat money system:

    Broken countries.  Broken trade. Broken bond markets. Broken manufacturing. Broken businesses. Broken housing markets. Broken Labour markets. Broken people.  Mal-investments. Wealth inequality. Big Government. Mass immigration. Wars. Even climate change.

    End the FED. End the ECB. End the BOJ. End the PBOC. End the BOE. End the SNB. End the RBA

    Bring back a hard money Standard.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 5:43am

    #3
    RodgerMitchell

    RodgerMitchell

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 14 2009

    Posts: 3

    Dollar creation is no threat at all

    It is not clear why the author is concerned about dollars “created from thin air,” since that is how all dollars are created. The U.S. government is Monetarily Sovereign. It has the unlimited ability to create dollars at will, and has been doing so since we went off all gold standards.

    Also, lacking inflation, dollar creation is no concern at all. See: It is 2019, and the phony federal debt “time bomb” still is ticking.

    Finally, the article says, “It’s about accelerating social inequality, the rejection of capitalism and globalization, rising geopolitical divisions, resource scarcity, and the loss of liberty, health and happiness.”

    Oh, my. All this from creating dollars? Not really. It’s how the dollars are used that counts. If the dollars were used to provide Medicare for all, Social Security for all, advanced education for all, and other social programs, we could ameliorate the “resource scarcity, and the loss of liberty, health and happiness.”

    And still we have moderate inflation.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 6:43am

    Reply to #3
    nickythec

    nickythec

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 12 2010

    Posts: 6

    11+

    Really.... Moderate Inflation?

    “And still we have moderate Inflation?”

    Over the past 10 years, have you not bought groceries, how about had any medical procedure or medical issue that required medical care or medication?  Sent anyone or yourself to college?  How about bought any building materials?  Bought a new vehicle (compared to same make model as one bought 10 years ago).  I could go on…. but I think you get my point.

    Honestly, can you say that you are actually experiencing moderate inflation, or do you just say that because that is consistently the story in the financial media?  I only ask because from my perspective,  it is impossible to ignore.  What am I doing wrong in living my everyday life that I missing out on this “moderate inflation” and getting killed by what seems like much more pernicious inflation.

     

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 6:45am

    Reply to #2
    RodgerMitchell

    RodgerMitchell

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 14 2009

    Posts: 3

    Gold Standard?

    Yes, by all means bring back a system where the nation’s money supply is dictated by gold mining, and where recessions can’t be cured.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 6:54am

    Reply to #2

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3233

    7+

    troll infestation!

    Oh, my. All this from creating dollars? Not really. It’s how the dollars are used that counts. If the dollars were used to provide Medicare for all, Social Security for all, advanced education for all, and other social programs, we could ameliorate the “resource scarcity, and the loss of liberty, health and happiness.”

    Is it too soon to announce the arrival of an MMT troll?

    Hey Adam.  What’s the schedule on the “block” button?  I’m really tired of seeing all these trolls.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 8:49am

    Reply to #2
    davyd

    davyd

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 20 2009

    Posts: 2

    Why the label?

    What do you object to?  Roger makes sense.  What matters is the actual goods and services not the accounting in terms of dollars

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 9:30am

    Reply to #2

    rhare

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 29 2009

    Posts: 399

    7+

    Odd statistics for a user

    Hey Adam. What’s the schedule on the “block” button? I’m really tired of seeing all these trolls.

    I’m more curious about how two people who supposedly joined in 2009 only have 3 and 1 posts.  They waited 10 years to decide to troll now?  I suspect either the 2009 is a lie or the number of posts.  Just seems odd.  Also can’t seem to find a way to see the list of posts a user has made anymore, maybe I’m just missing how.

     

    Of course after posting, I notice I only show 399 posts and I know I had in the thousands on the old system  Somethings broken.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 9:58am

    Reply to #2

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3233

    3+

    thought shaping

    rhare-

    I get the sense the site has become a target for thought shaping for a number of different groups.  Such joy.  I guess that means we’re important at some level.

    Of course I’m assuming that the “post count” is accurate.  I don’t think the date is.

    A friend of mine showed me a demo of an AI text generation system he trained up on his mailing list of 20 years of messages for his particular team.  The messages it generated didn’t make complete sense, but they sure captured the tone correctly.

    It won’t be too long until “deep fake” AI tech can construct reasonable-sounding posts and responses given a framework, training, and a subject.  Then we’ll really be inundated.  Maybe 5 years?  Less?

    We aren’t very far away.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 10:04am

    Reply to #2
    Xango

    Xango

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 27 2013

    Posts: 2

    4+

    You may object (rightly in my opinion) to Rodger’s opinions, but they are not presented in an offensive manner.  I think many of us paid members do a lot of reading but very little posting.  I believe we have the right to be heard as long as our comments are not rude, offensive, racist, etc.  What’s this about ‘post-counting’ and what does that have to do with anything?

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 10:05am

    Reply to #2

    Pipyman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 76

    Yes!

    But joined in 2009?

     

    Damn they’re good….

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 10:18am

    Reply to #3

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 551

    6+

    Yeah, so...

    “It is not clear why the author is concerned about dollars “created from thin air,” since that is how all dollars are created. The U.S. government is Monetarily Sovereign. It has the unlimited ability to create dollars at will, and has been doing so since we went off all gold standards.”

    My first suggestion would be to go watch the relevant videos from the Crash Course, which explain in detail why it’s a problem.

     

    My second suggestion is for you to go explore which entity actually has the power to print our fiat currency. Hint: it ain’t the government. Knowing that May help you understand whom the endless printing of money benefits first and foremost.

     

    My last suggestion is that you should avoid referring to the author, Chris, as “the author.” I won’t speak for him, but my impression is he’s not that formal and prefers others not to be so formal with him. Plus, it lends credence to the impression that you’re a corporate or central bank shiv.

     

    -S

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 10:21am

    Reply to #2

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 551

    2+

    Big time?

    I get the sense the site has become a target for thought shaping for a number of different groups.  Such joy.  I guess that means we’re important at some level.

    Does this mean we’ve made it to the Big Leagues now?

     

    #glasshalffull

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 10:21am

    Reply to #2

    Pipyman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 76

    6+

    Just going to say it...

    This is FUCKING SCARY!

    Been reading since 2011 and the above type posts are new. I don’t know what they are but I note:

     

    1: sensorship on YouTube etc is exploding

    2. desperate times as above.

    3.  A push for removal of liberty and the propaganda that’s necessary to justify it e.g. pre crime, forced vaccinations, an explosion of protests that are clearly being infiltrated (see extinction rebellion latest).

     

    I feel a phase change. Anyone else?

     

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 10:38am

    Reply to #2

    Pipyman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 76

    1 post I note...

    And where was it stated in the post you replied to that he/she didn’t have the right to express an opinion?

     

    hmmmmmmmm…..

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 10:40am

    #4

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 25 2014

    Posts: 877

    1+

    ... Aaand...

    Lethal Autonomous Weapons: An Update from the United Nations

    Yes, maybe there is a phase change.  Then again, the Banana war was back close to the turn of the previous century, wasn’t it?  Maybe you just are noticing.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 10:46am

    Reply to #4

    Pipyman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 76

    Yes,

    you’re probably right…,

     

    But, in my case, it’s not noticing that’s the problem, it’s feeling it as real! It’s so easy to sleepwalk through this madness…

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 11:52am

    #5

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3233

    3+

    phase change

    pipyman-

    Yeah, I sense something similar.  A different kind of post, heading into 2020.

    People are now appearing with a laser focused agenda.  “I want to persuade you of this.”  No time is being wasted on the pleasantries.

    I could be wrong.  But I don’t think I am.

    I think that a number of groups have either volunteers, or paid “thought shapers” who have been assigned specific sites to influence, along with a collection of content and talking points.  I saw a friend of mine do this on facebook.  He had a large network of friends, and all he did was spam us – daily – with an unending stream of Dem talking points and memes.  He got them from somewhere, for sure.

    I think there are a number of orgs who have set up teams to do this heading into 2020.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 12:13pm

    #6

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3233

    7+

    The Fed - Lehman II? Junky bond fund failure?

    Now, about the Fed.  I think the new blast of Not-QE is a really big deal.  As Chris says, it is happening on an ad-hoc basis, not as a part of a carefully laid out strategy.  What’s more, the last time banks decided they didn’t want to lend to certain companies in the overnight markets, Lehman died.

    I posted this in another thread – I’ll drag it in here too:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-01-28/lehman-brothers-had-200-billion-in-overnight-repos-ahead-of-2008-failure

    Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., before it failed, financed about a third of its assets with $200 billion in overnight repurchase agreements handled by clearing banks, and depended on 10 short-term lenders for 80 percent of its repos, according to a report that includes a list provided to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in September 2008.

    To me, the sudden reluctance to lend is because our friendly banksters are just not certain they will get their money back from some very specific borrowers.

    I think a number of companies/organizations have used the overnight market to fund purchases of large amounts of iffy assets, and now the banksters aren’t willing to lend them money any longer, because those assets could go under at any moment – become illiquid – and the banksters would be stuck waiting for the bankruptcy to get their cash back again.

    This story suggests that someone might be about to die.  Say – a junk bond fund full of very illiquid crappy debt?  If that happened, a lot of investor money could be locked up for quite some time as buyers are found for things that can only be sold very slowly.  Knock on effects would result in a massive sell-off in all similar funds.  Fund managers would simply halt redemptions in said funds “until the danger passed.”

    The panic might spread to all sorts of places.

    Not-QE is the most interesting signal we’ve seen out of the Fed in maybe 10 years.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 12:18pm

    Reply to #2
    Xango

    Xango

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 27 2013

    Posts: 2

    3+

    Pipyman, are you referring to my post?  I hope I’m misunderstanding.

    FYI, I love this site and I’m about as far from being a ‘troll’ or ‘paid to infiltrate’ as one could possibly be.  I love reading Chris and Adam’s work, and davefairtex whose daily gold commentary I read almost religiously.

    Honestly, I think you’re getting a little over-concerned with these site infiltration worries.  I just thought his suggestion that the ‘block’ button should be used was suggesting someone didn’t have a right to express their opinion.  Sorry Dave if I was mistaken.

    If you like, I can give you the many reasons that I read rather than post.  But I don’t think I have that obligation and I shouldn’t be assumed to be a troll.  I consider myself a part of this community despite disagreeing occasionally.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 12:47pm

    Reply to #2

    Pipyman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 76

    Block

    The button applies to himself, not the site. I didn’t accuse you of anything. Of course everyone gets the right to their opinion and the right to speak. Here anyway…

     

    However, thats a strength and a weakness in these times. PP will undoubtedly practice it, the powers that think they be will infiltrate it, imitate it and destroy it….

     

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 1:11pm

    Reply to #5

    Pipyman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 76

    Hmmmm

    Yes, sounds more plausible to me than AI.

    Call me paranoid, I don’t care, but I’d rather be that than naive.

    I’m sure they’re all RT employees 😉 Although, it does sound like something the soviets would have done.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 1:43pm

    #7

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1540

    5+

    Everyone’s busy establishing borders

    The 1845-1860 time period in the US was marked by people on both sides of the coming Civil War doing their best to define “them” and “us”, gather as many allies as possible, and take and hold as much territory as possible before the actual fighting began. Places like Kansas were particularly brutal as the pro- and anti-slavery factions were evenly matched and they were not obviously geographically part of the main territory of either side.

    I think something similar is happening now as we approach Civil War 2. The big complication now is, with few exceptions, there’s no clear territorial boundaries (most of California is one of the exceptions). So “we the people” are sorting ourselves out ideologically as people in the political middle are being pressured from both left and right wings to come over to their sides. The internet is a big battlefield in that respect. I think that’s part of what Davefairtex and others are seeing. Everyone’s on edge even if they’re not a partisan trying to line up support for your side and throw wrenches into the other side’s machine.

    I say we continue to respect and listen to anyone here who can be respectful and come with well reasoned posts. That being said, I think it’s also reasonable to find partisans here trying to either convince us of their views or simply to cause disruption and make us ineffective.

    Unless something changes our trajectory we’re going to enter the kinetic phase which will have much more in common with Rwanda and Bosnia, than our own Civil War 2.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 2:10pm

    #8
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 62

    5+

    Don't Feed the Trolls

    I tried to respond to Dave’s post directly re: “sidekicks” but the system wouldn’t allow for it. (??) I think GerrySM is a real individual, quite possibly the “alter ego” of Crapper given distinct similarities in response techniques.  I think he/they are very skilled, high-level paid trolls whose mission is not to persuade, but to disrupt, distract and otherwise hijack PP discussions and the site overall.

    GerrySM in particular effectively employs projection in which he accuses others of the very trolling techniques that he employs.  Perhaps coincidentally, his/their posts are remarkably similar to those from a troll-in-residence at the now defunct ENEnews (energy news) site a few years ago. That troll went by several aliases and devised numerous clever ways to get around moderator attempts to block him. No doubt that his relentless and skilled trolling contributed to the demise of the site.

    I too, feel that there’s been a “shift” in the tone and content of some of the PP posts. But I’m very hesitant to label any poster as a troll unless they’ve repeatedly, blatantly demonstrated trolling behavior, including posting malicious, disruptive, disparaging, offensive comments and overly dominating the threads.  I think GerrySM reaches that threshold.

    PP is a great resource with a unique and vibrant community. While Adam and Chris are patient and thoughtful moderators, they have been known to cite serious deviations from the PP guidelines and rules when necessary.  PP members can do their part by not “taking the bait” from obvious trolls, by simply ignoring them and maintaining civil and on-topic discourse with others.  Eventually, starving trolls really do move on to other sites where they can successfully practice their dark art.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 2:21pm

    #9
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 62

    AT&T widespread US outages for internet, phone and tv

    California being the hardest, my internet was down since early this morning and restored about 2 hours ago. There’s some chatter that 7 AT&T servers are down causing the outage, with some estimates of days before full restoration of services.

    https://downdetector.com/status/att/map/

     

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 3:45pm

    #10
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 258

    3+

    Hard to be a people

    thc0655 wrote,

    And yet, “we the people” couldn’t care less.

    Sad. We deserve everything that’s coming to us, and so do the central bankers.

    Yes and no. I think far more people than we suspect DO care but are confused and have no idea where to turn or what to do. It’s OK for us in our PP watchtower — if nothing else we see the tsunami coming a bit ahead of everyone else —but the average citizen is kept so busy with life that they have no time to analyse and consider alternatives.

    We know a thoughtful, intelligent young woman in her final year of a marketing course at one of the local universities. She worries about her fellow students, so many of whom are unable to read anything longer than a couple of paragraphs or concentrate on a video longer than a few minutes. Recently I helped organise a public lecture about the linkages between soil science and climate change. The speaker was given 75 minutes for the main presentation with a food break halfway. Our student friend was aghast: “you’ll never get young people to sit still and concentrate for that long! They’ll never come to the lecture!” Well, just a few did, and actually sat there and listened the whole time. But most of the audience were middle-aged and senior.

    Digital native youngsters mediate their entire lives through their little iPhones. Our politicians know this and feel safe in ignoring this growing segment of the electorate which cannot think outside its iBox. The kids are like the adults: they have no time, bombarded constantly with information and interruptions.

    A lot of glittering generalities above I admit, but not entirely wrong.

    But then there is such a thing as wilful blindness. I recommend again the book Wilful Blindness, Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril, by Margaret Heffernan, ISBN 978-1-84737-770-8. Her findings apply at all levels: history, science, business, government, family.

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 5:04pm

    Reply to #2
    MKI

    MKI

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 12 2009

    Posts: 94

    4+

    Discussion/Tribalism/Trolls

    A few comments:

    1. Not into tribalism, but rather ideas, esp. those that challenge mine. So I find Xango/Roger/Davy’s comments apropos not “troll-ish” (I’m not saying I agree with them). In fact, I was hoping people would reply to them.

    2. I find PP one of the few places that offer an alternative world-view narrative., esp. one with a focus on PM/resources/oil. Again, this doesn’t mean I agree with said narative. I comment once in a while seeking intelligent feedback, much in the vein of Xango/Roger/Davy above.

    3. For those keeping tribal score: just because one is not aligned with PP economic/environmental/energy predictions (e.g. MMGW, PO, or imminent economic/environmental collapse) does not mean they are a Bot. Heck, even a cornucopian cashing in on the FED’s bubbles may read PP to remind them to keep 10% NW in PM (w/a private well/garden :-).

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 5:40pm

    #11
    Crapper

    Crapper

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 01 2019

    Posts: 13

    4+

    (a) Inflation will BECOME a problem (b) Crapper is a troll????

    (a)RodgerMitchell: “… lacking inflation, dollar creation is no concern at all”.

    Are you nuts? Inflation doesn’t lead currency creation, it follows it. And it’s not linear, it’s psychological. It flips like a switch in the population almost overnight. Before inflation takes hold there’s usually YEARS of excess printing. Then the economy becomes structurally dependent upon it (which is where we are today). Then inflation starts and it’s politically impossible to reign it in (advice: short all Western currencies by going long gold and/or Bitcoin, depending on your risk profile). Then hyperinflation sets in… then our doom is experienced by the general populace. This future is now baked in our pie.

    The West is banktupted morally, spiritually, and environmentally. We’re cannibalizing everything for the present (our oil, our top soil, our culture, even our very ethnicity). Everything is financialised for consuming in the present to enrich the Elites.

    Money printing now is cannibalizing the privilege of having a respected fiat currency. Our future is at best Argentina, but more probably Germany’s Weimar Republic. If you cannot see that then you shouldn’t cross the road without adult supervision (or may you should? Lol!).

    (b) Sparki1: ” I think GerrySM is a real individual, quite possibly the “alter ego” of Crapper given distinct similarities in response techniques. I think he/they are very skilled, high-level paid trolls whose mission is not to persuade, but to disrupt, distract and otherwise hijack PP discussions and the site overall.”

    Time to take off your tinfoil hat Sparkie1. Here’s the lowdown on me: I’m an environmentalist who sincerely doesn’t believe the science behind the man-made C02 global warming theory. If I’m wrong, then I’m sincerely wrong. But when I see Obama-King Canute-the-2nd, lecture us for years on rising seal levels and then buy a mega-million dollar mansion on the sea front as an “investment for future generations” then I call BS on his years of environmental grandstanding. In my books Obama-King Canute-the-2nd joins the ranks of the global warming High Priest Al Gore with his private jets, mega mansion, billion dollar investments who preaches to the rest of us to lower our carbon foot print. Greta Thunberg “blame everyone but China” is the latest fiasco in this line of high-carbon hypocrites.

    Side note: ever wondered why China was give a “non-compliance, free get-out-of-jail card” in the Kyoto Protocol treaty? Let me suggest our elites were already being paid off with the export of our industries to that very country. The Kyoto Protocol in effect was to legally force carbon consumption transfer from the West and into China …. and the working man and small business in the West was going to be disenfranchised by our incompetent, corrupt, degenerate and traitorous elites. That’s why the words put into Greta’s mouth were purged of any mention of high-polluting “China”.

    I believe climate disruption is coming, and it’s going to be bad… famine causing bad. Millions starving to death bad. My science is in the stars… the sun mainly but also the planets. So-called climate science (aka the “science is settled” so we don’t have to listen to opposing scientific opinion) has been massively corrupted. But whatever the truth, global warming is now a cult. It’s fully aligned with the hard left: anti-white, anti-male, anti-heterosexual, anti-nation, anti-unborn, anti-West and finally…. anti-Christ.

    I visit factories every day (my business is industrial automation). The man-made global warming cult is ridiculed by the layman, and rightly so! You want to denigrate them as “Deniers”? Ha, ha! They’ll see you at the ballot box and deliver a Trump / Brexit style black-eye! Man-made global warming has been fully co-opted by the elite and corrupted for their purposes which is why all oposing discussion has been shut down and demonetised in the corporate media (including Wikipedia, Youtube, Google, etc).

    Ask yourself this question: do you use the term “denier” for informed people who scientifically disagree with your persuasion on global warming? If so, you’ve been co-opted as a drone of the Elite! Even if you turn out to be right … you’re still their drone!

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 5:56pm

    Reply to #8

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3233

    4+

    thanks sparky - disruptors

    I think your explanation of Gerry/Crapper as a disruptor whose job it is to destroy a site through disruption sounds quite plausible.  Certainly that’s the effect of what they do.  And I sure did take the bait.  Sorry about that, everyone.

    Hmm.  I wonder if I could train an AI to detect a disruptor.  There’s a lot of work that has been done by google to detect spam, but…could such an AI pick up the specific, destructive semantic tricks used by Gerry/Crapper?

    In looking to see if I could retrieve data on who has posted what here in the past, I took a look at the internet archive (web.archive.org) and it turns out, they have snapshots of PP dating back to the beginning of time.  So I could download a snapshot as of (say) right before the changeover, and extract a list of usernames and what they posted over time.  Not simple, but not all that hard.  FWIW.

    Another factoid: someone at the archive has included PP in a “fake news” archive.  This appears to have the effect of taking much more frequent snapshots of the site; the goal of this, I’m guessing, is to make it more likely that “posted-then-edited/deleted” comments are recorded for posterity.  Again, FWIW.  The internet is forever.

    Description of Archive “Fake News”:

    This collection is based on a “seed” list of URLs from a Google Doc about “False, Misleading, Clickbait-y, and/or Satirical “News” Sources” published on November 18th, 2016, by Melissa Zimdars, an assistant professor of communication and media at Merrimack College.

    And archive “Fake News II”:

    Archive-It Partner 1028: Mark Graham – Collection 12099: “Fake News” II (2019)

    https://web.archive.org/web/collections/2019*/peakprosperity.com

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 7:16pm

    #12
    ao

    ao

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 964

    8+

    an oldy but goody

    This excerpt has been posted in the past on PP but new members may find it edifying and some older members may benefit from the reminder.
    They Thought They Were Free
    “What no one seemed to notice,” said a colleague of mine, a philologist, “was the ever widening gap, after 1933, between the government and the people. Just think how very wide this gap was to begin with, here in Germany. And it became always wider. You know, it doesn’t make people close to their government to be told that this is a people’s government, a true democracy, or to be enrolled in civilian defense, or even to vote. All this has little, really nothing, to do with knowing one is governing.”
    “This separation of government from people, this widening of the gap, took place so gradually and so insensibly, each step disguised (perhaps not even intentionally) as a temporary emergency measure or associated with true patriotic allegiance or with real social purposes. And all the crises and reforms (real reforms, too) so occupied the people that they did not see the slow motion underneath, of the whole process of government growing remoter and remoter.”
    “You will understand me when I say that my Middle High German was my life. It was all I cared about. I was a scholar, a specialist. Then, suddenly, I was plunged into all the new activity, as the university was drawn into the new situation; meetings, conferences, interviews, ceremonies, and, above all, papers to be filled out, reports, bibliographies, lists, questionnaires. And on top of that were the demands in the community, the things in which one had to, was ‘expected to’ participate that had not been there or had not been important before. It was all rigmarole, of course, but it consumed all one’s energies, coming on top of the work one really wanted to do. You can see how easy it was, then, not to think about fundamental things. One had no time.”

     

    “Those,” I said, “are the words of my friend the baker. ‘One had no time to think. There was so much going on.’”

     

    The busyness, the short attention spans, the diversions, the distractions, and especially the divisions all conspire to keep us from identifying and taking action against what is materially one of the most important issues affecting the welfare of the American people, the Federal Reserve Bank.  When raising the issue of the Federal Reserve at a congressional town hall meeting years ago, I quickly learned that this is an issue politicians are loathe to address in any substantive way.  When discussing and debating issues with individuals of differing political opinions from mine, I learned that they considered diversity, inclusivity, cultural sensitivity, proper pronouns, gender issues, racial issues, and other such social justice topics to be of far more interest and importance in influencing the welfare of the average American than the Federal Reserve Bank, at least in their mind.  When considering the broad range of topics covered by the American mainstream media, I learned that the subject of questioning the necessity for the continued existence of the Federal Reserve was one which would never, ever be presented to the public in any serious manner.

    Gunther Blumentritt, a WW2 German general, when interviewed by British military historian B.H. Liddel Hart, had this to say about the French Resistance:

    “It had not amounted to much in 1942.  It was then divided into three distinct groups – Communists, Gaullists, and Giraudists.  Fortunately for us, these three groups were antagonistic to one another, and often brought us information about one another’s activities.”

    But then he noted, when they became united from 1943 onward, they became increasingly effective.  There are lessons to be learned here.

    As Damon Vrabel (strabes) stated years ago on this site, far more eloquently than I, it’s not so much the left-right x-axis that’s important, it’s more the up-down y-axis.  Thank you Damon for opening my eyes to this way back then.  With unity comes strength.  We have to get around our differences, recognize our common ground, and identify and take action against our common adversary.

    For years, I’ve tried to educate almost anyone I can get into a serious conversation with about the issue of the Federal Reserve.  Sometimes I fail in opening their eyes, sometimes I succeed.  But I have noticed that slowly, inexorably, awareness is growing and the people are waking up, especially the young.  The natives are growing restless.  I’ve seen the “phase shift” recently myself including in my own profession.

    I had mentioned within the past month that there was a lot of unhappiness in my former profession about an impending 8% Medicare reimbursement cut.  Just this past week, a new Medicare payment system for SNFs (skilled nursing facilities) was launched called PDPM or Patient-Driven Payment Model.  The purpose, ostensibly, was to drive quality patient care.  But the result, because of both real and perceived changes in corporate healthcare profitability, was the triggering of widespread lay-offs and increased patient loads and bureaucratic demands upon those still employed.  The outcry from the membership of our professional organization was like nothing I’ve ever seen in 43 years of membership (i.e. 2 student and 41 professional).  Comments on our organization website were of a tone that was the closest I’ve ever seen to advocating outright insurrection.

    I wonder how long it will be before massive protests and non-violent civil disobedience are directed towards the Federal Reserve.  For myself, it couldn’t be too soon.

    Image result for federal reserve bank

     

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  • Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 7:33pm

    #13

    GerrySM

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 20 2017

    Posts: 54

    Projection?

    I think GerrySM is a real individual, quite possibly the “alter ego” of Crapper given distinct similarities in response techniques. I think he/they are very skilled, high-level paid trolls whose mission is not to persuade, but to disrupt, distract and otherwise hijack PP discussions and the site overall.

    When we studied this is Psychology, it was called “projection” — “the human ego defends itself against unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others”.

    I have nothing to do with Crapper, my message is diametrically opposed to his, and my grammar and style quite different. I post from Australia, but I am a US citizen who has lived there for decades.

    I apologize for calling Adam a “sidekick”, but I simply could not remember his name. I should have said “partner” or “colleague”.

    I am deadly serious about the danger to this site and many others of people who are professional trolls for the fossil fuel, energy and automotive industries. You need to have your antennae tuned to people who directly or indirectly deny the biggest existential threat facing mankind.

    I thought the issue of climate change was settled at this site, with Chris supporting the science and a long thread in the forums with guidance from a real climate scientist, so it’s confusing and alarming to find people like AO posting here, who have an openly denier stance and voicing support for deniers like Armstrong.

     

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 12:22am

    Reply to #2

    Dutch John

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 09 2008

    Posts: 35

    7+

    Pipyman said: I feel a phase change. Anyone else?

    I apologize for adding another off-topic message, but I sense a phase change too. Not only on PP, but also in other groups, in mainstream media, even among friends. As if a coming change is now felt by a much larger group of people. It scares them, probably because they feel a coming loss of a comfortable future. Replies -even face to face- are getting harsh and opposite. The denial phase of mourning?

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 3:18am

    Reply to #2

    Pipyman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 76

    4+

    Yeah

    It feels like the point in denial where the evidence is so overwhelming you can’t reside in that subconscious iteration of denial anymore. Rather, you have to use effort in the form of anger (usually) to beat yourself back into blissful ignorance…

     

    Speaking from experience on my own journey.

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 6:42am

    #14
    brushhog

    brushhog

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 06 2015

    Posts: 63

    6+

    The real question...

    The real question appears to be whether a completely artificial and manipulated market can even fail? In the past countries failed because there was legitimate competition. There were alternative currencies, systems, and true markets. There was ‘sound money’ in the form of gold backed currencies. Now, with the entire global economic system essentially one big illusion being controlled by a single, global elite…..can they just print forever?

    When something collapses that they don’t want to collapse….pump money into it and bring it back to life. When something collapses that they don’t like, just let it die. When systems fail, change the rules. When measures fall, change the way they are calculated. When public morale drops, pump out cheery propaganda 24/7 telling them that things have never been better.

    If the whole world is falling together, there is no measurable way to determine it. Right? If the dollar falls 20% but everything else falls 20%, then nothing fell.

    Do fundamentals matter? Do they even exist? I’m starting to question everything as nothing seems to really ever happen the way it should if they did.

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 7:11am

    Reply to #14
    MKI

    MKI

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 12 2009

    Posts: 94

    The real question...

    If the whole world is falling together, there is no measurable way to determine it. Right? If the dollar falls 20% but everything else falls 20%, then nothing fell. Do fundamentals matter? Do they even exist? I’m starting to question everything as nothing seems to really ever happen the way it should if they did.

    This is why people say “Don’t fight the FED”. They control the measuring stick itself. And they are honest about it: Bernaki’s famous “helicopter” speech set our tune: the FED will create inflation as desired for political reasons. You have been warned. So there is really no other way to “play” in the world of wealth creation but stocks, bonds, and real estate. The FED plays the tune. We dance. We’ve known this since 2008. QED.

    It’s critical to understand that the central banks cannot print up prosperity. All they can do, being redistributive organizations, is take purchasing power away from one side and hand it to another. So the key question to be asking now is:  Who’s winning and who’s losing? Well, here in the US, we already know that it’s the tippy-top 0.1% that is doing almost all of the ‘winning.’  The next 0.9% are doing pretty well, too.  But by the time we get just slightly below the top 10%, we run out of “winners”.

    It’s also critical to understand real wealth is being created daily. Not fake wealth, but real wealth. The internet has made life better in uncountable ways. Autos are way more reliable than 30 years ago (how many flats do we get anymore?).

    And those who play the game correctly can participate in this wealth creation and generate financial returns like the wealthy do. All it takes is to understand the system.

     

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 8:13am

    #15
    MAV

    MAV

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 07 2008

    Posts: 19

    1+

    The real question appears to be whether a completely artificial and manipulated market can even fail?

    Interesting thought and I think one that has been brought up in comment sections before.  Can we have a record high stock market and %50 unemployment?

    I totally believe Chris that over the next decade, we will not have the energy to keep
    everything running.  But what will it look like?

    I feel like I need to buy a button many people wore in the movie The Truman Show.

    HOW’S IT GOING TO END?

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 10:51am

    #16
    MKI

    MKI

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 12 2009

    Posts: 94

    1+

    Record high stock market & %50 unemployment?

    Robots and a growing technical society practically guarantee record stocks alongside record permanent unemployment. Based on the IQ bell curve things will probably settle out more like 75% unemployment (assuming the government not handing out fake/unproductive jobs). Not because we can’t use workers but because most workers cannot add any value in a highly technical economy. Hell, even lawyers and engineers (top 20% IQ)  are feeling the unemployment pinch as robots chip away at their jobs. It’s one of the reasons we’ve been able to stave off Peak Oil longer than expected (rigs are more efficient using less people every year, not to mention advances in production engineering; what used to take X men to produce Y bbl oil is in absolute free-fall). Those high-paying jobs? Gone forever. All that wealth goes into the coffers of those who own Exxon stock paying fat dividends…

    Bottom line: a person with without an IQ in the upper 1/3 isn’t very economically productive in this modern era. Yet we generate great wealth and have to allocate it somehow. Yang’s BUI and Tucker Carlson’s desire to ban self-driving cars to save jobs for uneducated men are political acknowledgments of this new reality. When the military won’t even take people below an average IQ anymore – in wartime! (the ASVAB is a shameless g-loaded (IQ) test the military uses to exclude the bottom half).

    So in summary: anyone paying attention certainly expect massive permanent unemployment alongside great wealth creation and a booming stock market. It’s not a bug, but a feature, of technology. Assuming the Flynn Effect doesn’t kick into high gear somehow…

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 12:10pm

    #17
    ao

    ao

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 964

    2+

    there are still the dirty jobs but nobody wants to do them

    I’ve wondered the same things as brushhog and by and large, agree with most of what MKI is positing.  But there are still a lot of unfilled employment opportunities out there.  A couple of months ago, we had a clogged sewer line.  There are only a few businesses providing this service in our area and they were all booked up solid.  I finally got one of them to come out the next day when they had a cancellation.  The two workers were pleasant enough and got the job done for what I thought was a very reasonable price (as compared to what I researched) but the skill level requirement to perform the job was low, the job did not require much in the way of equipment, and the workers were not near the high end of the IQ scale.  The occupation is not prestigious but it is needed and seems to pay fairly well.  Likewise, I see a considerable demand in our area for welders, millwrights, and boilermakers that is going unfilled.  Most of the young people I know are simply not interested in doing these types of jobs.

    On the other hand, we have more massage therapists and personal trainers in our area than you can shake a stick at and most of them, from my perception, do not appear to be making a great income.  It’s not a career I would want to hang my future on.  For sure, the days of the assembly line worker, driver (whether cab, limo, bus, truck, train, or airplane), etc. are limited and it doesn’t appear like there will be the same number of new jobs appearing to replace them.  Similarly, the auto parts and auto mechanic industry will decline as EVs become more prevalent.  Again, it doesn’t look like there will anything akin to auto assembly line workers and auto mechanics replacing buggy whip makers and blacksmiths in the near future.  I could be wrong though.  Who knew you could make a living from a YouTube channel and vlogging, for example.  But for the less intelligent, less creative, less intrepid, the future does not look bright.

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 1:18pm

    Reply to #17
    MKI

    MKI

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 12 2009

    Posts: 94

    Dirty jobs nobody wants to do

    AO, I agree with you with a few caveats:

    1) The “everyone must go to college” meme 1960-200 did create a shortage of tradesmen today, but as jobs get tighter and tighter this seems to be reversing itself where I live. But I could be wrong here & haven’t seen any numbers.

    2) Plumbing, welding, electrical, HVAC are moderately IQ demanding. I do all of them and one really needs a mathematical IQ in the upper half to do them well (especially odd-job stuff that can’t be formulated into a checklist). I’m not saying there aren’t a LOT of idiots doing these jobs today (see #1 above) but over time these jobs will be harder to get and even harder to hold…and just as it’s psychologically hard for the non-social blue-collar guy to work as a nurse, it’s hard for the technically challenged to work in the trades. Sure one might get said job there but how long can they hold it?

    3) Everything is more replaceable and/or reliable today. Today, we swap out the fridge and hot water heater for the latest model, not fix them. Less workers, once more, while factories spew out cheaper and cheaper replacements with less workers.

    In short, I agree with you but I think time will chip away at the exceptions. I sure hope I’m wrong, or that UBI or something like it levels the playing field for the non-elite. I just and too thick to see it happening anytime soon.

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 3:30pm

    #18
    skipr

    skipr

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 09 2016

    Posts: 137

    2+

    portable dirty job

    A while back I met a couple who made a million USD transporting those portable cubical toilets to fire fighting sites in MT.  It’s not a job to brag about, but the money sure is.  As things continue to heat up and dry out there will be even more of a demand.

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 4:56pm

    #19
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 258

    1+

    Where do the diesel mechanics go?

    Transport Canberra (TC) is planning to convert its entire bus fleet from diesel to electric within the next few years. The diesel mechanics currently employed by TC, who are not few in number, are understandably worried about their futures. TC is working with them to move them into new trades, but the average EV motor is so much simpler than the average ICE, and the nature of the work is so different, that it’s hard to see where all the redundant men and women can be placed. So far the government is confident that it can redeploy them or help a few into retirement, but who knows?

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 5:29pm

    #20
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 893

    6+

    there may be a bright future

    for one who can settle a mare, raise a mule and train it. muleskinners were the bottom of the 18th-19th century IQ curve…..they didn’t starve. it may all come full circle…

    settle your mare!

    robie,husband,father,farmer,optometrist

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 5:58pm

    Reply to #17
    ao

    ao

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 964

    1+

    clarification and further commentary

    MKI, I just wanted to clarify that I hope what I wrote didn’t imply that I thought welders, millwrights, boiler makers, plumbers, electricians, HVAC folks, etc. were necessarily low IQ individuals because I am aware of the cognition needed with most, if not all of the trades.  But they don’t typically possess Mensa level IQs (although I know a carpenter acquaintance who does and can intelligently debate me on almost every subject).  I’m not even sure if the majority of them are in the top one third.  Nevertheless, many individuals that we would not normally consider bright or high IQ in the academic sense have higher intelligence in other areas such mechanical aptitude.  Most doctors or lawyers that I know don’t have the knowledge or skill to fix their automobile or their central heating/cooling system so obviously, we all need each other.

    I agree with you that there is an increasing recognition that not everyone has to go to college or should go to college and I know increasing numbers of tradespeople who are doing better economically than their equivalent, college educated, generational cohort.  The tendency for things to be disposable and throw away is also very true but I find it interesting that in our town, there is one shoe repair guy and one vacuum cleaner repair guy, both of whom have all the business they can handle.  They’re not rich but they’re making it.  They really seem like anachronisms in the modern age but there doesn’t seem to be any decline in their business over time.  In fact, with harder economic times over the past 10 years, they actually seem to be doing better.

    I also find it interesting how reliable automobiles have become yet how relatively unreliable (as compared to decades again) such things as refrigerators, computer printers, etc. have become.  I have an old HP Laser Jet II printer from 1989 that still works, even though it’s been rendered obsolete by software changes.  No modern printer has even come close to that in life span.  Right now, my wife would like to buy a new refrigerator since the old one has some wear and tear and is not particularly energy efficient.  But she hasn’t been able to find a simple refrigerator, without all the bells and whistles, that will last as long as the ones from decades ago (BTW, if anyone out there as any product recommendations, I’d love to hear them).  A couple of years ago, we had to replace our washer and drier, both of which had lasted us close to 25 years.  The only replacement brand I could find that might last an equivalent length of time was Speed Queen.  I made sure to order models with mechanical rather than electronic controls to improve the likelihood of having a long service life and to decrease repair costs if repairs were ever needed.

    I think you are correct about time chipping away exceptions.  I have big concerns about UBI though, especially if there is no connection whatsoever to some type of gainful employment or service.  For younger males in particular, I have a hard time imagining how a large percentage of them won’t wind up getting into some kind of trouble with all that free time on their hands.

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 6:14pm

    Reply to #20
    ao

    ao

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    you may be right Robie

    My 27 year old son just attended a wedding of some friends his age who have become farmers.  All the food served at the wedding was raised, slaughtered, and prepared by them and friends.  The flowers and decorations were all grown and made by them.  Their wedding cost them essentially nothing in terms of cash outlay.  My son worked on agricultural sustainability in the Peace Corps and was planting moringa trees and investigating ways to better promote moringa and lapsi fruit on the international market.  He tried his hand at plowing with water buffalo (not an easy task, I was told), slaughtering and butchering goats with a kukri, etc.  He also did some WOOFing (Working On an Organic Farm) in this country.  He picked up some valuable knowledge and skills and is planning on going back to school to combine his economics degree with one in urban planning looking at ways of integrating agriculture, silvaculture, aquaculture, etc. into an urban environment.  A good female friend of his from the Peace Corps is working on her family farm and developing that activity as a career.  I worked on a farm as a kid but had no interest whatsoever in ever doing something like that for a career.  But there’s much more interest among the younger generation now.

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 9:27pm

    Reply to #3

    Grover

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    Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

    RodgerMitchell wrote:

    It is not clear why the author is concerned about dollars “created from thin air,” since that is how all dollars are created. The U.S. government is Monetarily Sovereign. It has the unlimited ability to create dollars at will, and has been doing so since we went off all gold standards.

    Also, lacking inflation, dollar creation is no concern at all. See: It is 2019, and the phony federal debt “time bomb” still is ticking.

    Finally, the article says, “It’s about accelerating social inequality, the rejection of capitalism and globalization, rising geopolitical divisions, resource scarcity, and the loss of liberty, health and happiness.”

    Oh, my. All this from creating dollars? Not really. It’s how the dollars are used that counts. If the dollars were used to provide Medicare for all, Social Security for all, advanced education for all, and other social programs, we could ameliorate the “resource scarcity, and the loss of liberty, health and happiness.”

    And still we have moderate inflation.

    Every few years we are graced with Rodger Mitchell’s wisdom. Rodger used to go by “RodgerMalcolmMitchell”. Perhaps that is why he only has 3 posts. Then again, it could be because most of his posts were on the subscription side. Since PP switched to the new format, those posts are invisible to the nonsubscribers. Even if you happened to be the author of posts while being a subscriber, your posts are no longer available for non-subscribers (i.e. you, once you no longer subscribe) to see. That means that I can’t link my earlier quotes.

    Rodger’s message is that governments are monetarily sovereign. In my opinion, that’s just another version of modern monetary theory – MMT. (I’m sure there are nuanced theoretical differences, but I don’t think those differences exist in the real world.) From what I understand of Rodger’s theory, governments are monetarily sovereign and can therefore print as much money as they wish. Governments can never go broke – simply because they can always print as much as they need. Hence, they should run ever increasing deficits to fund their operations so there is enough scrip flowing to the populace to power the economy and make everyone rich. There’s no need for federal taxes since the federal government can just print as much as they need.

    I’ve asked Rodger repeatedly for his reason why Zimbabwe (a monetarily sovereign nation) experienced hyperinflation and an eventual collapse of their currency. So far – crickets. Either he is unwilling, unable, or uncaring to explain where Zimbabwe went wrong (even though they seemed to follow his formula to the letter.)

    I even went to one of his blog sites to try to understand his theory. His writings were unconvincing to me. The comments to his article mostly fell into 2 categories: the acolytes (e.g. davyd – author of the 7th post in this thread) and the apostates (who questioned his theory.) He treated the apostates in a manner that wouldn’t be acceptable at Peak Prosperity; however, it was his site and he had administrative control over who posted. I lost ALL respect for him! His ideas are as perfect as Marx’s – in other words, not workable (as intended) in the real world.

    I’ve wondered why Rodger even bothers to post here periodically. I’ve concluded that he is reaching out to susceptible individuals who might be willing to purchase one of his books. I’m also wondering if his accountant asks him to post here for documentation for tax purposes so he can “legitimately” deduct PP membership dues from his taxes. Frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me.

    Rodger, I think your monetary sovereignty theory is less than worthless! I’ll be happy to debate you as soon as you explain where Zimbabwe (a monetarily sovereign nation that printed its way to widespread poverty) deviated from your theory and why its currency essentially failed in hyperinflation. I’ve asked you a few times before and you have never responded. I’ll bet you’re too chicken to respond now!

    Grover

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 9:39pm

    Reply to #20

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 3233

    butchering a goat with a kukri?

    Well, I’ve butchered a sheep with a straight-bladed survival knife, just the one time.

    I also happen to have a kukri, received as a gift from my then brother-in-law who was a British officer in the RGR.

    But using a kukri to butcher a goat?  My kukri is massive!  It looks a lot like these:

    https://nepalkhukurihouse.com/default/categories/gurkha-army-current-issue.html

    Using one of these to butcher a goat really would be quite the feat.  I’m sure the Ghurkas do that sort of thing all the time – but they are, after all, Ghurkas.  Six impossible things before breakfast.  🙂

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 9:46pm

    Reply to #3

    davefairtex

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    grover!!

    Well.  Grover.  That’s quite the response.  I too am eager to hear his reply.

    Thanks for reminding us (me!) about the older posts which I did not recall.  I withdraw my overly-hasty troll characterization.  I may have been suffering from an overdose of Gerry.  🙂

    Apologies, regrets.

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  • Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 10:26pm

    Reply to #20
    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 964

    kukris and Gurkhas

    Now that you mention it Dave, having butchered a few animals, I could see how a kukri would be an awkward tool for the finer parts of the butchering.  For slaughtering, they grab the goat and pull on its head (if I recall correctly, pulling on the ears) to make the neck taut and decapitate it with one blow.  But I also recall my son saying he saw a time when someone just sawed through the neck with a knife to take the head off.  He said it was pretty barbaric (as compared to quickly slitting the throat of a goat or sheep and letting it bleed out before commencing butchering which is what I’m familiar with).  I’m assuming the kukri could also used to quarter the animal.  Although I would prefer using a smaller utility knife, I could imagine that, in a survival situation, if a smaller utility knife were not available, the mid portion of the non-edged spine of the kukri could be grasped to use it like a skinning knife or a scraping tool for just those purposes but I can’t say for sure if that’s how they do it.

    Now wait for this one.  It really shows the capability of a kukri.  My son said on one occasion, he watched someone decapitate a water buffalo off with one blow.  Same thing.  Pull on the head, make the tissue taut, and with a mighty blow, off with the head.

    Here’s a related story.  When we were in the Falkland Islands, the tour guide made a point of showing us a position on the high ground that was held by the Argentinians.  He took particular glee in relating that when the Argentinians got word that the Gurkhas were going to be sent in, they fled their positions.  Some Argentinians, like gauchos, can be quite skilled with a knife but I don’t know anyone in their right mind who would want to to face a Gurkha with a kukri.

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 2:08am

    Reply to #3

    Grover

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    Troll?

    davefairtex wrote:

    Well.  Grover.  That’s quite the response.  I too am eager to hear his reply.
    Thanks for reminding us (me!) about the older posts which I did not recall.  I withdraw my overly-hasty troll characterization.  I may have been suffering from an overdose of Gerry.  🙂
    Apologies, regrets.

    Dave,

    I wouldn’t be so quick to withdraw the troll characterization. Trolls come in all forms. Some use their postings with the sole intent to generate traffic to other specific websites. I believe Rodger is doing that. Of course, he could just be a philosophical snake oil salesman who truly believes his own BS. (Just as with GerrySM, arrogantly believing something doesn’t make it any truer.)

    I really doubt that Rodger will answer the call to support his theory. If he could defend his theory with respect to Zimbabwe, he would have done so years ago. Instead, he scurried off to the safety of his own domain – only to pop up here to generate more clicks to his site. By my definition, that makes him a troll. (I’ll withdraw my characterization if he does interact sufficiently. Clickbait trolls can’t afford to waste their time interacting.)

    Expect to see him again in a few years with more clickbait. By then, he’ll be a few years closer to the grave … and hopefully wiser. I won’t hold my breath.

    Grover

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 2:20am

    Reply to #14
    Steve

    Steve

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    Play the game correctly and participate in this wealth creation...

    Hey MKI… you wrote:

    “It’s also critical to understand real wealth is being created daily. Not fake wealth, but real wealth. The internet has made life better in uncountable ways. Autos are way more reliable than 30 years ago (how many flats do we get anymore?).

    And those who play the game correctly can participate in this wealth creation and generate financial returns like the wealthy do. All it takes is to understand the system.”

    I would genuinely like to hear more about that topic if you are of a mind to share …  What is the way to play the game correctly and participate in this wealth creation?

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 4:01am

    #21

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

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    Grover, overusing Troll meme also is uncivil

    Suppose everything here that you posted was true. What of it? We’ve had other members here who have published books and sold them here too.  How much less offensive to point someone to his own website, and … if they choose to buy, they choose to buy.

    RMM was a paying subscriber; that’s more than I ever was. Something about PP made him want to pay.Therefore, even if everything was as you said, he’s still not a troll.

    Neither am I — but when I, as an engineer, remained unconvinced of certain engineering and physics claims of the truther creed, I too was labeled a troll… also a horrible engineer

    It’s quite uncivil.  Unkind, even.  Down here in the South, I might say rude.

    Dave Fairtex is doing well.  He is very good at giving a person the benefit of the doubt. And no, I don’t think he or I like MMT either, in any form.

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 8:46am

    #22
    Eyes of Horus

    Eyes of Horus

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    $60 Billion a Month

    The American economy is actually a consumer based economy. If the Fed wants to pump $60 Billion a month into the economy, give it to the consumers. It’ll get out into the part of the economy that needs it to shored up.

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 9:13am

    Reply to #22

    Snydeman

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    Yep

    The American economy is actually a consumer based economy. If the Fed wants to pump $60 Billion a month into the economy, give it to the consumers. It’ll get out into the part of the economy that needs it to shored up.

    Absolutely true. The fact that the Fed isn’t doing that tells you all you need to know about who and what they actually care most about…and it ain’t us.

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 9:25am

    #23

    Snydeman

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    Here's all I know...

    It’s spreading. The unhappiness, the sense of being fucked over, the feeling that the system no longer cares about the average person…all spreading:

    Fourth turning indeed.

    Note also that as far as the BBC is concerned, the Yellow Vest movement isn’t happening. /rolls eyes

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 11:18am

    Reply to #20

    Pipyman

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    Yes

    Many of the smug high IQ crowd are likely to revel in their superiority whilst being beaten to death by a burly idiot with their bell curve I feel. Just sayin..,,

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 1:21pm

    #24
    MKI

    MKI

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    Posts: 94

    8+

    Participating in wealth creation without being in the top 10%

    …way to…participate in this wealth creation?

    My approach isn’t popular in today’s “everything” bubble. Quick summary: invest only in assets with cash flow & shun consumerism. Details:

    1. Observe wealth still grows at the societal level but little is allocated back to workers anymore.

    2. Commit to family/unified/traditional values and never act individualistically/impulsively. Modern individuality is a prole luxury.

    3. 10% NW in PM (physical off-grid: legal/medical/collapse insurance).

    4. 25-75% NW in 10-20 “A” blue chip, >20 yr dividend-pay-stocks with 50+ institutional investors that had earnings & dividends increase in last decade & decent PE/Bk Val/PayOut/LT debt. Adjust % based on the Dow’s dividend % (<1/3-1/2 today).

    5. 15-65% in local real estate directly owned/rented/managed by you.

    6. Get creative with the big 3 expenses: medical (cook from scratch to eliminate processed foods, lift weights at home); housing (rent some of your space); education (get serious, no debt).

    7. Cut spending hard. Avoid paying for labor. Buy used. Fix everything. Do your own investing. Garden. Repair home/auto. Sew/tailor. Vacation at home. Track spending. Treat work as play.

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 2:53pm

    #25
    karenf

    karenf

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    Important listen

     

     

    Hi all – I posted this 2 weeks ago but think it got missed by folks.  This is a video from Real Vision about what is happening behind the scenes in the housing market.  I have not heard anyone talking about this anywhere.  I would love to hear what you all think!

    Karen

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFkkN2M3Y3c

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  • Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 4:56pm

    Reply to #21

    Grover

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

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    Seductive Poison

    Michael Rudmin wrote:

    Suppose everything here that you posted was true. What of it? We’ve had other members here who have published books and sold them here too.  How much less offensive to point someone to his own website, and … if they choose to buy, they choose to buy.

    RMM was a paying subscriber; that’s more than I ever was. Something about PP made him want to pay. Therefore, even if everything was as you said, he’s still not a troll.

    Neither am I — but when I, as an engineer, remained unconvinced of certain engineering and physics claims of the truther creed, I too was labeled a troll… also a horrible engineer

    It’s quite uncivil.  Unkind, even.  Down here in the South, I might say rude.

    Dave Fairtex is doing well.  He is very good at giving a person the benefit of the doubt. And no, I don’t think he or I like MMT either, in any form.

    Michael,

    Yes. I agree that the “troll” designation is overused; however, there is a big difference between people like Charles Hugh Smith and Rodger. Charles interacts on a personal level. Charles does his best to answer questions and add to the conversation. On the other hand, Rodger lays out the same barebones BS with links to his site every few years. Each time he has posted something here, I’ve asked him to explain why his theory doesn’t work. Each time I’m left hanging. So, if “troll” isn’t appropriate, what should we call someone who does what Rodger does?

    His monetary sovereignty theory is really quite seductive to those who can’t see the eventual catastrophic results. Essentially, government just prints as much as it needs and we have to trust that they won’t overdo it. There are no real checks and balances built into the system. Any of the theoretical checks and balances can be overwritten in times of emergency. When isn’t there an emergency that needs government assistance? It works until it doesn’t. In engineering terms, it is considered “fracture critical.”

    Nova on PBS aired a special on “Why Bridges Collapse” and featured the Morandi Bridge in Italy. It stood for over 50 years and then suddenly collapsed – killing 43 people. Because it wasn’t deemed an act of war, forensic engineers were able to investigate and piece together the puzzle and determine that corrosion had sufficiently weakened tensile steel members in one concrete encased cable assembly.

    Nobody expected the bridge would collapse. Nobody detected the corrosion before catastrophe ensued. Although collapse of confidence in the nation’s currency won’t occur so quickly, it will trap and harm many orders of magnitude more than the 43 who perished in the Morandi Bridge collapse. Just look at the situation in Zimbabwe during their hyperinflation.

    Above graph and following snippet copied from https://www.goldonomic.com/zimbabwe.htm

    To call this action by Mugabe and Gono premeditated theft, is being nice. Because of the actions of these guys, each day 7 million people don’t have anything to eat…and this used to be one of the richest countries in Africa.

    [For those of you who are a wee bit math challenged, each partition on the vertical axis is 10 times more than the partition below. In 2001, ~100 ZWD was worth about 1 US dollar. Within 2 years, it took more than 1,000 ZWD to equal 1 US dollar. The next year, it took more than 10,000 ZWD to equal 1 US dollar. The 104 = 10,000 (easiest to remember it as 1 with 4 zeroes.) The top number is 1032 which is 1 with 32 zeroes meaning 1 US dollar = 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 ZWD.]

    Although this graph never shows a “catastrophic” collapse like the Morandi bridge experienced, at what point would you say collapse occurred? Was it when the currency was worth 1/10 as much (so, it took 10 times as much money to buy the same needed goods?) 1/100? 1/1,000? What would happen to any savings? I don’t know who wins but I sure see a lot of losers.

    This is why I’m purposefully being “rude” to Rodger. I think he’s a charlatan who won’t (or can’t) defend his theory; yet, he continues to periodically post his modified spam here. Nevertheless, hope springs eternal. I hope he will explain to me where I’m missing his big picture. Realistically, I won’t hold my breath.

    Grover

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  • Tue, Oct 22, 2019 - 4:49am

    Reply to #13

    Rector

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 07 2010

    Posts: 333

    4+

    Not settled.

    Believing that any complex topic such as climate change is “settled” is all I need to know about someone’s thought processes.  There are topics that I believe to be settled – and they are settled in my mind.  However, I would never be so intellectually totalitarian as to believe they are “settled” to everyone else.  Nor would I want to operate within a community of people who enforce consistency of thought through coercion.  Yes, there are people “like ao” on this site.  I am one of them.

    Rector

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  • Tue, Oct 22, 2019 - 5:11am

    #26
    Steve

    Steve

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    Unscheduled meeting of the Federal Reserve

    Am I late to the game, or was there an unscheduled “emergency” meeting of the federal reserve on October 4?  Apparently, this meeting was unpublished and unscheduled.

    See their calendar link here:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

    The press release for the meeting is dated October 11 and can be seen here or by clicking the html button on the calendar link above:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20191011a.htm

    Apparently, there was an unscheduled (emergency/secret) meeting on October 4 and the press release did not occur until October 11.  How often do these “unscheduled” meetings occur?  Is there some sort of crisis? (tongue in cheek)

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  • Tue, Oct 22, 2019 - 11:49am

    #27

    SagerXX

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 399

    1+

    I assume...

    …the “growth” in the economy will come from helicopter money payouts (UBI, et al.) that go directly into people’s hands.  It will be immediately spent, and with inflation in consumer goods, in nominal dollar value, the economy will “grow”…  Allowing TPTB to keep things floating maybe another 5-15 years.  All that spending will go to McDonalds and Walmart and Netflix and Amazon and so on, as opposed to growing and building real businesses, repairing infrastructure, upgrading technology (electrical grid and renewables, etc.).

    Not loving these ideas, but it solves a few of the problems TPTB have in terms of “keeping the game” going.  Although I’m probably missing some important detail or important major point.  Ain’t too proud to be wrong…

    VIVA — Sager

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  • Tue, Oct 22, 2019 - 11:52am

    #28

    Snydeman

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    Posts: 551

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    $100 Billion

    The Fed dropped $100 BN into liquidity markets today. Dude, something has to be breaking for them to be throwing this much money at the “”market.””

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  • Tue, Oct 22, 2019 - 3:31pm

    Reply to #25
    MKI

    MKI

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    Joined: Jan 12 2009

    Posts: 94

    Important listen

    …posted this 2 weeks ago but it got missed…behind the scenes in the housing market. I have not heard anyone talking about this…would love to hear what you all think!

    Yeah, it’s a fair overview by an expert. I don’t disagree with KJ’s facts, just his brains. Yes, the Government is continuing to bail out housing and prevent inventory and price discovery. Yes, they won’t foreclose. Yes, people have been living for free for nearly decade in homes they should have been booted from. 2008-2018 (25 million mortgages have been in “workout”. What’s funny is that KJ even acknowledges all this has been working for a decade! How Services still refuses to boot out the bums living for free. That is: everyone is playing ball. They saw what happened to Lehmans…

    Yet what KJ thinks is somehow “terrifying” facts so “sell sell sell!” I find exactly the opposite. OF COURSE the housing market hasn’t “recovered”. It’s a permanent bailout, dude. Are all boomers this naive? What pol is gonna allow housing to tank? Was he sleeping through 2008? Does anyone really think the Democrats will? Trump? The FED? Snort. If only.

    The problem I have with KJ’s is that he thinks like the free market is still active & 10% returns are what should expect, when we should be happy to just keep what we have, and real estate is at lease something physical. I know I sound bitter; I prepared for the 2008 crash & didn’t get a penny from real estate because the government bailed it all out. I learned my lesson in 2008. KJ clearly never did. There is no free market.

    What KJ also forgets: the US has a LOT of financial rope to deploy here in bailout heaven. The world’s largest trade deficit; we can bring the jobs home overnight and scare the crap out of any country that doesn’t play ball. The most oil production. Most nukes. Huge coal. Huge nuclear. Huge breadbasket. Huge NG. Reserve currency. Lots of gold (who knows how much is in Knox).

    No, the government will spend. They will never let the lenders pay the price, nor the voting public, until they absolutely have to. When will that be? Well, we have a lot of countries to invade and lots of assets and resources to plunder first :-)…

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  • Tue, Oct 22, 2019 - 5:12pm

    #29
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

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    repo market

    Without the fed in the repo market there would be a run on the bank tomorrow!

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  • Wed, Oct 23, 2019 - 3:16am

    #30

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 25 2014

    Posts: 877

    It won't be five years.

    The deficit is already on course to overrun the GDP within five years.  As systems break down (outside in) , the GDP is going to suffer, while the deficit accelerates.  When deficit exceeds GDP, then outflow exceeds inflow.

    I don’t think hanging on for 15 years is likely.

    Speaking of outside in, we have already seen a number of countries go down in the Arab Spring. Then there’s Venezuela and Cuba, now Chile and Ecuador.  Could we start plotting a graph?

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  • Wed, Oct 23, 2019 - 8:48am

    #31
    karenf

    karenf

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    Posts: 34

    Thanks MKI

    I am still astounded at what the world of money is getting away with.  I never would have thought that 25 million mortgages in default would not get foreclosed on…  never  ever would have thought that possible (possible but not doable).  It is a world of bandits and thieves with no ethics and it is pervasive.  How will this end?  I am so astounded I do not have imagination enough to figure out how this will all play out.  Oil, I get… this financial world, I am speechless.
    Karen

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  • Wed, Oct 23, 2019 - 1:49pm

    Reply to #3
    davyd

    davyd

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    Joined: Aug 20 2009

    Posts: 2

    Sovereignty

    Zimbabwe was not “monetarily sovereign”.  Debts were denominated in currencies other than the ZD

    Economies consist of resources, labor and goods.
    If there is slack in labor (un or underemployment) or excess stuff, fiscal operations won’t create inflation.
    in my opinion, good government policy is in choice of what to demand – bombers? Clean water? Health care?
    if resources are available then “paying for it” is not a relevant issue.

    The description of how money is created in Modern Money Theory is not theoretical, it’s just reality. Policy consequences depend on values.
    I’d rather have public goods managed by a government than by a profit seeking entity because I believe that incentives can be aligned.
    see e.g. private prisons

     

    I disagree with the Job Guarantee as “core” MMT – it’s a policy choice

     

    but can’t disagree with the fact that the US cannot become insolvent except by congressional stupidity.

    Debt matters. But how it matters is in the details of inflationary pressures, not “how to pay for X”

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  • Wed, Oct 23, 2019 - 5:14pm

    Reply to #28
    nickythec

    nickythec

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    Joined: Jan 12 2010

    Posts: 6

    1+

    What's another $20B

    Looks like the Fed is upping the quantity for Repo’s again.  This just can’t  be good.

     

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-to-increase-temporary-liquidity-available-to-markets-11571867401

     

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  • Thu, Oct 24, 2019 - 12:07am

    Reply to #3

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3233

    6+

    MMT: missing

    davyd said:

    If there is slack in labor (un or underemployment) or excess stuff, fiscal operations won’t create inflation.

    Not true for two reasons.

    1) You are ignoring resource shortage issues. If oil runs out, you will have both unemployment and high inflation.  If you print a bunch of money to “solve the unemployment problem”, it won’t solve anything because the limiting factor remains oil.  Even if you have control over the printing press, you can’t print up more oil.  Inflation will occur even in a high employment scenario if you have a resource shortage.

    2)  If confidence in the government snaps, inflation will occur.  In real life, money moves in anticipation of events.  If people-with-money lose confidence in the government, money will flee (some out of the country, some into “real things”) and if the loss of confidence is bad enough, hyperinflation will result.

    in my opinion, good government policy is in choice of what to demand – bombers? Clean water? Health care?

    You are not factoring in corruption.  You are “assuming good, responsive government.”  Which we don’t have.

    Rules for Rulers – and common sense – tells us that our leadership (in control of funding) will direct funding at the people who got them elected – their “keys to power.”   They won’t direct funding at “what is good government policy”, but rather at a) the donors who paid for their campaign and b) the groups who can make sure to keep them in office.

    Without first providing public funding for elections, and eliminating the bribery-after-office of the “revolving door”, MMT is yet another recipe for seeing a firehose of cash fired straight at the already-wealthy donor class.

    Moreover, there is (in MHO) a very significant risk that Big Money will flee ahead of the implementation of MMT, and this flight-in-advance will result in a surprising currency devaluation, a flight out of US debt instruments, and cost-push inflation as everything we import will get more expensive.

    In our current corrupt environment, MMT is a recipe for disaster – a whole lot of money directed at a small group, accompanied by a loss in confidence that will lead to a currency crash.  And of course it can’t fix the resource issue either.

    So – current MMT model is seriously flawed.

    Of course, if you can assure that corruption in government won’t happen any more – say by funding elections using public money – confidence may not fail if MMT is enacted.  So I encourage you to run off and get elections to be funded publicly, and once you do that, we can talk about MMT.

    I do think MMT might have utility if we get into a deflationary depression.  Then money will be the thing that is in short supply.  But we’re so far from that it isn’t even funny.

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  • Thu, Oct 24, 2019 - 10:00am

    #32
    mEad0w.larK

    mEad0w.larK

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    Posts: 7

    1+

    Pam Martens

    Anyone read Pam Martens at Wall Street On Parade?

    https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/10/fed-ups-its-wall-street-bailout-to-690-billion-a-week-as-media-snoozes/

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  • Thu, Oct 24, 2019 - 10:19am

    Reply to #32

    nancybeck

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 05 2009

    Posts: 5

    Pam Martens

    Yes, I’ve been following WallStreetOnParade.com for years. Great info.

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  • Tue, Oct 29, 2019 - 11:57pm

    Reply to #3

    Grover

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 15 2011

    Posts: 695

    2+

    No Such Thing As A Free Lunch

    davyd wrote:

    Zimbabwe was not “monetarily sovereign”.  Debts were denominated in currencies other than the ZD

    davyd,

    Monetary sovereignty refers to a country’s ability to print its own currency and have others recognize it as such. As an example, countries in the European Union who use the Euro have given that right away. As a result, they are not monetarily sovereign.

    During the time of the Zimbabwe hyperinflation, Zimbabwe was in fact monetarily sovereign and abused the privilege. The hyperinflation should be proof enough.

    Just in case you aren’t moved by this argument, let’s look at your argument “debt denominated in currencies other than the ZD” Frankly, I’m not knowledgeable about Zimbabwe’s debt structure. Either the debts were significant or they weren’t. If the debts were insignificant, your point is moot.

    Assuming the debts were significant, they occurred before the excessive printing occurred or after the excessive printing commenced (or both.) If the debts were incurred before excessive printing occurred, why couldn’t Zimbabwe simply print enough of their currency to buy the other currency and extinguish the debt? After all, they were monetarily sovereign. Didn’t others understand how important they were?

    If the debt occurred after excessive printing occurred, it shows the abject failure of printing too much. Not only couldn’t they print their way to prosperity, they impoverished millions of people in their vain attempt. (The graph I posted should be sufficient evidence for anyone higher than dolt status.)

    The bottom line is that monetary sovereignty isn’t the silver bullet. If a country abuses its privilege, currency traders will punish them severely. Monetary Sovereignty is just a dressed up version of MMT. Charles Hugh Smith penned a great article on Peak Prosperity about MMT. Could Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Actually Save Us?  Here’s a spoiler – NOPE!

    Apparently, only some of the people can be fooled all the time. Of course, I may have misunderstood Rodger’s theory. Since he doesn’t feel compelled to defend it, perhaps you can point out where I’m missing his big picture. (Isn’t that what an acolyte does?) Oh, and please expound on your reply. A single line isn’t going to cut it.

    The rest of your post was pretty well shredded by davefairtex. (BTW, I agree with Dave’s points.) I look forward to seeing you shred his (and my) points as well. (I won’t hold my breath.)

    Grover

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  • Wed, Oct 30, 2019 - 12:30am

    Reply to #3

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3233

    2+

    monetary soverignty

    Yeah, Grover, that’s good.

    If Zimbabwe was forced to denominate its debts in a foreign currency, that is direct evidence of a pre-existing loss of monetary sovereignty due to a collapse of confidence in the government of Zimbabwe.

    This says that you only retain monetary sovereignty if you retain confidence.

    Mechanically, MMT all works fine.  In the real world, where corruption is a pervasive issue, and a major tool of power perpetuation?  MMT will almost certainly end up being a disaster.

    I’m guessing that in Zimbabwe, the “government” used MMT to apportion cash flows to the leader’s key supporters (c.f. Rules for Rulers, #2: control the treasure).  At some point along the way, Big Money lost confidence in the government, and refused to buy any more ZD-denominated bonds, so they had to go to USD bonds.  Zimbabwe lost monetary sovereignty at that point – as a direct result of a Big Money confidence loss.  But the MMT operations continued to pay off those key supporters, and it kept going and going, then ordinary people lost confidence, and hyperinflation was the inevitable result.

    Was it inevitable?  Perhaps the government felt it had to keep paying those key supporters (via MMT) or else face losing power.  Without being on the inside, who can say for sure?

    Regardless, the equation is: Corruption + MMT = hyperinflation.

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