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    The Coronavirus Threat Is Greatest In Cities

    As well as other densely-populated environments
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, February 12, 2020, 4:18 PM

The coronavirus continues its spread through China and surrounding Asian countries.

The data increasingly show that this virus is wickedly contagious, especially in crowded environments where population density is high — like the densely-packed buildings in cities.

As a frightening example: in Japan, a health worker was infected while inspecting a quarantined cruise ship, despite wearing proper PPE and taking standard precautions.

On the more positive side, we are hearing “success” stories from those who have now recovered from the virus. These are mostly folks who had less serious cases, which is around 80% of those infected.

But, on the more concerning side, evidence is showing that those who recover may not have immunity from catching the virus again. And, that a second infection could potentially result in a much more serious threat to life.

As usual, we still need more detail before drawing hard conclusions.

There are many elements still unknown about this virus — such as why the rate of spread appears much lower outside of China than within.

We remain committed to scouring the news and science wires until we have the answers.

Stay tuned. We’ll share more as we learn of it.

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166 Comments

  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:27pm

    #1
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    What cities??

    Good video as always......What cities do you think are at highest risk?  (Outside of major SE Asian cities nearest to Wuhan)

    New York and LA seem like high risk US cities since these were the top 2 US cities visited by Chinese last month as part of lunar New Years seasonal travel.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:28pm

    #2

    Mark Cochrane

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    Just a slight accounting error

    China's Hubei province admits a massive spike in virus cases and deaths (14,840 additional cases and 528 additional deaths)

    https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2020-02-12%20%281%29.png?itok=cRxP5yUb

    https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2020-02-12%20%282%29.png?itok=nO0zEQXC

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:31pm

    #3

    Adam Taggart

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    Big Jump In The Numbers Of Infected (60,096) & Deaths (1,363)

    OK - so we've seen a big increase in the official released number of infected & dead from the Wuhan coronavirus"

    Infected: +14,920 (up from 45,170 yesterday)...a 33% increase
    Dead: + 248 (up from 1,115 yesterday)....a 22% increase

    What's the reason for the big % increase? We don't know yet. But we're looking hard for it.

    Without exact knowledge, we suspect this may be related to our longstanding stated opinion that the Chinese have been underreporting all along. Perhaps now they are trying to do a little "catch up", so that by the time the world realizes the true scope of the problem, the gap between official and real numbers is a bit tighter.

    UPDATE (4:34pm PT 2.12.20)

    Per Worldometers (hat tip to kristen braun):

    Report from Hubei: 14,840 new cases and 242 new deaths. Surge in number of cases due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification. In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases. Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases. There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases). 1 new case in the UK (a Chinese national). First case in London. 1 new case in Hong Kong and 1 recovered. 3 new cases in Singapore - “While most infected patients will recover, some may become seriously ill and a small number may succumb to the infection ultimately” said the Minister for Health. Out of 50 total cases, 15 have recovered, 8 are in intensive care.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:33pm

    #4
    Tom Sammy

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    Issue with test kits

    Shoot, a setback, I was hopeful the local test kits would result faster testing in the States

    Coronavirus test kits need to be fixed

    Coronavirus test kits shipped from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to labs across the country and around the world last week have had problems detecting the virus, the CDC said Wednesday.

    During a briefing with journalists, the CDC’s Dr. Nancy Messonnier said some labs were getting “inconclusive” results from the test. As such, the test will need to be fixed.

    The problem was found during initial routine run-throughs with the test to make sure it was working correctly before using it to diagnose COVID-19, as the illness is now called, in actual patients.

    The issue with the diagnostic test has not been reported in all states. The Illinois Department of Public Health said Wednesday it had not experienced trouble with its test kits, and is able to move forward with testing for the coronavirus. It’s unclear how many of the test kits shipped were flawed.

    All samples will also be tested at the CDC’s headquarters in Atlanta to confirm the results.

     

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-12-cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-found-to-produce-false-negative.html

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:34pm

    #5
    PokerBear

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    It’s coming...

    Simply and horribly, this is likely to become another Chernobyl or Fukushima – a catastrophic illustration of mankind’s hubris and intransigence clashing with Nature, as fate again reaps a once unimaginably tragic toll.

    ‪https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/‬

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:36pm

    Oliveoilguy

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    528 or 248 deaths.....Which is correct?

    Mark .....where did you get your numbers?

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:36pm

    #7

    George Karpouzis

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    Re: New numbers out of China

    The big increase in reported cases is due to "clinically diagnosed" cases being added in the total. This news should be make some headlines but again "the flu is worse" is what I keep hearing from anyone I talk to about this

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:45pm

    Redreamer

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    Redreamer said:

    wow just wow.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:45pm

    Mark Cochrane

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    Report was incorrect

    Olive oil guy,

     

    those numbers were on Zerohedge. I just went back and they have updated to 242 deaths. The figure still isn’t back up.

     

    on the other hand, this site is showing 250 today for all China (link)

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:49pm

    #10
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

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    Covid-19 just a bad cold

    But the virus’s destructive potential has overshadowed one encouraging aspect of this outbreak: So far, about 82 percent of the cases — including all 13 in the United States — have been mild, with symptoms that require little or no medical intervention. And that proportion may be an undercount.

    Health authorities managing the outbreak are trying to understand what that critical fact portends. Are the 45,000 sick people tallied so far just a portion of a vast reservoir of uncounted victims, some of whom may be spreading the disease? And do the mild illnesses reveal characteristics of the virus itself — something that could be useful in crafting a more effective response?

    “The fact that there are so many mild cases is a real hallmark of this disease and makes it so different from SARS,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Health Security. “It’s also really challenging. Most of our surveillance is oriented around finding people who require medical intervention.”

    For those who study viruses, the large number of mild cases is reason for optimism. “This looks to be a bad, heightened cold — I think that’s a rational way of thinking about it,” said Matthew Frieman, a virologist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine. “Not to diminish its importance — it’s in the middle between SARS and the common cold.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/most-coronavirus-cases-are-mild-complicating-efforts-to-respond/2020/02/12/213603a4-4dc2-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:01pm

    CJL629

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    CJL629 said:

    So I am traveling back and fourth from SFO to DEN and sadly I think I’m the only one wearing a mask, scary - no?

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:05pm

    Tom Sammy

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    Re: bad cold

    Yeah I get the really bad cold theme cause fatality rate is a lot lower than SARS but it still seems like really poor comparison.  I think the MSM saw that the “flu is worse than NCoV” narrative was tired and this might be their new catch phrase.  I mean do colds have a 1% fatality rate or require serious/critical care 20% of time?  And I also think about potential permanent lung damage, ugh horrible.

    How about.. if they said “Covad-19 is like a rare deadly mutated form of a cold call an adenovirus” then maybe they are closer!!!!!!

    https://www.foxnews.com/story/cdc-deadly-mutation-of-common-cold-kills-10-sickens-140-in-past-18-months

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:07pm

    robbie

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    robbie said:

    The Washington Post article reminds me of that kid who brings his dad’s gun to school to show his classmates with the memorable words “Don’t worry, it isn’t loaded”.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:15pm

    #14

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    What about 5G

    Okay 5G was rolled out and, just maybe a spike in radiation affects the virus?  Really its not that crazy of a question!

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:17pm

    #15
    Tom Sammy

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    Military planning - messages sent to Navy and Marine Corps

     

    “The Navy and Marine Corps messages, issued Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, reference an executive order directing U.S. Northern Command to implement the Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13.

    The document serves as the Pentagon’s blueprint for planning and preparing for widespread dispersion of influenza and previously unknown diseases.”

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/02/13/us-military-prepping-for-coronavirus-pandemic/

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:17pm

    Mark Cochrane

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    Bad cold? Or bad analogy?

    The bad cold comparison is not very accurate. Here are the symptoms from CDC for this corona virus.

    2019 Novel Coronavirus Symptoms

    For confirmed 2019-nCoV infections, reported illnesses have ranged from people with mild symptoms to people being severely ill and dying. Symptoms can include:

    Fever

    Cough

    Shortness of breath

    these are the symptoms for colds and flus.

     

    If you have a cold, you’ll probably have symptoms like these:

    runny or stuffy nose
    sore throat
    sneezing
    cough
    headache or body aches
    mild tiredness

    Flu symptoms can include:

    dry, hacking cough
    moderate to high fever, although not everyone with the flu will run a fever
    sore throat
    shaking chills
    severe muscle or body aches
    headache
    stuffy and runny nose
    severe fatigue that may last up to two weeks
    nausea and vomiting, as well as diarrhea (most common in children)

     

    So, this virus won’t be too bad for 80% but for 20% it could be life threatening without serious medical care that goes on for weeks. Then there is that inconvenient death rate. Even if it is down at 1%, who here wants to roll those dice for their kids, parents or selves?

     

     

     

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:21pm

    #17
    westcoastdog

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    Reason for jump in stats

    BEIJING (REUTERS, BLOOMBERG) - The number of deaths in China's central Hubei province from a coronavirus outbreak rose by 242 to 1,310 as of Wednesday (Feb 12), the province's health commission said on its website on Thursday, but the latest figures were revised to include cases that were not lab-confirmed

    The number of officially diagnosed coronavirus cases in China surged after Hubei began adding cases that were confirmed via imaging scans, alongside those confirmed with the previous method of testing kits.

    In Hubei, where the pathogen originated, the number of infections rose by 14,840, with 13,332 from the new category, the province’s national health commission said in a statement on Thursday.

    The death toll in Hubei rose by 242, of which 135 cases were from the new method of diagnosis, according to the statement, and 3,441 patients have been discharged from the hospital since the outbreak began.

    But the 2,015 new confirmed cases reported in mainland China on Wednesday was dwarfed by the 14,840 new cases reported in Hubei alone on Thursday, after the new methodology for counting infections was adopted. The new cases include 13,332 that were confirmed via imaging scans.

    Previously, only those who tested positive were counted. Now anyone whose scan shows pneumonia is classified as covid-19 infected.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:26pm

    #18
    Chris Martenson

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    Bad Cold?

    I'm pretty certain that China wouldn't shut in 90% of its economy over a bad cold.

    I have no idea what the true devastation is in China, but I trust the ghost town aspects of major cities.  I trust the building of massive hospital facilities.  I trust the mass evacuations by various governments.

    But we have to wade through daily floods of narrative control and shaping, none of which I trust.

    We each have to make up our own minds as to what we trust.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:27pm

    George Karpouzis

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    Mark Cochrane: the numbers

    So, this virus won’t be too bad for 80% but for 20% it could be life threatening without serious medical care that goes on for weeks. Then there is that inconvenient death rate. Even if it is down at 1%, who here wants to roll those dice for their kids, parents or selves?

    Curious to know how American society will react to these types of numbers knowing that the virus is in their backyard. IF these numbers are true, I would wager that people would immediately freak out and stay indoors for a while hoping it burns itself out. But at some point, people need to get back to work so they trudge along playing the numbers game. I mean if you need to work you can only hide out so long. Kids could stay at home while schools are shuttered but the adults will need to get their work done. Right now, we are battling fear and anxiety of the unknown as we simply do not have the data available to us. The princess diamond ship should hopefully answer many of our questions.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:44pm

    nordicjack

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    Re: what cities

    Broward/dade county florida has about 8 million in a 60 mile radius.    My Brother has been sick there since the 21 or so of Jan and has had a recent down turn.  His symptoms are consistent with the kung flu and he has had a history of travel with high population of asians in mid Jan.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:48pm

    #21
    Sparky1

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    California, LA County: more than 1,000 travelers to China told to self-quarantine

    NBC-LA news:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1227657572183953410

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 5:55pm

    #22
    Sandy Beach

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    Supposed to fly to Croatia on Tuesday

    I am scheduled to go with a group to Croatia for 2 weeks. We will be meeting with 100 women from that area of the world. I fly from CO to Amsterdam to Croatia...and back.

    My concern is not so much getting the virus but the possibility of getting stranded somewhere along the line due to travel restriction or anything else.

    I appreciate the efforts of people here to understand what we are facing and how to respond as wisely as possible in light of significant unknowns. My doctor wrote scripts for me to stock up on required meds. I expect significant economic impacts and supply chain issues. I plan to use masks and gloves while traveling though I do understand the limitations of them.

    Open to feedback and suggestions. How would you advise your sister? Assuming you like her...;)

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:00pm

    #23
    Steve

    Steve

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    Sewers, Feces & Airborne Virus

    I have never been to China so I don't know the configuration of the sewer system.

    For much of our city (Atlanta), the storm system and sewers run together.  Often, in low places on the street, one can smell the sewers.  Today as I was walking through a strong odor in a low spot, I wondered if a virus that can live in feces and has airborne capability could be intermingled in some way with that odor.

    Is this a possible explanation for the videos we have seen of the street spraying operations in Wuhan?  And could it be the virus is spread, even on the streets, through the city sewer system?

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:29pm

    #24
    Dave 0131

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    Questions for Chris

    Chris,

    Thanks again for all the great work.   I am still amazed at how many in the USA are shrugging this off as "just another flu bug, nothing to worry about".  Can you try to answer these questions or offer any opinions on these?  I have read that warm weather kills off the flu bug.  Any thoughts on if warm weather (spring-summer) will kill this thing?  If that is true, then why is this spreading in Thailand where it is currently very warm?     Next question, any thoughts on this impacting China much more than elsewhere being due to Asians having a higher ACE2 receptor level?  Finally, could the slower spread outside of China possibly be due to a much longer incubation period than we currently think?  Or do we have enough data to say the incubation period is on the order of 2 weeks.   Thanks again for the great work, not only on this but all your other peak oil, podcasts, and crash course work!

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:33pm

    #25

    dtrammel

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    Earlier Video in the Peak Prosperity Series

    For some reason, the video just before this one posted on 2/11 has not been put up here on the site. Here's a link.

    Coronavirus, the potential for a vaccine, and the cytokine storm!

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:38pm

    #26

    dtrammel

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    Preparations, Helpful Hints and Stuff You Can Do Being Discussed Here

    To remind anyone new here, we have an ongoing discussion on things you can do to help yourself, preparation and deep pantry, and sanitation, mask and personal protection on this thread from earlier in the week.

    Great hints and information. The discussion will continue there.

    "Coronavirus: What We Can Say Publicly & What We Can’t"

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:40pm

    #27
    Mark H.

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    Air pollution impact?

    Chris,
    Do you think that the long-term exposure of the Chinese population to serious air pollution, especially in the large cities, might explain in part why the Chinese appear to have more incidence of serious coronavirus pneumonia?  I spent 3 days in Beijing one August outdoors sight-seeing.  After those three days, my sinuses were on fire and I came down with a bad sinus infection on the flight home.  I don't know how people can live in that every day.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:45pm

    #28

    dtrammel

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    Ok, I'm confused about the numbers

    I had read that China had removed the people who were tested and found having Covid-2019 but who hadn't shown any symptoms from the total numbers of infected. Am I reading this right, now they are adding the people who are confirmed to have symptoms based on scans? And those that died who showed scan symptoms?

    With the article about the over worked crematorium operators, and the guestimate that they had disposed of 4000+ bodies since 1/22, I'm finding it hard to believe anything coming out of China.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:48pm

    #29
    Thetallestmanonearth

    Thetallestmanonearth

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    Travel

    In the last 5 weeks I’ve been on the road constantly. I’m in Fort Worth Texas this week for a trade show with 1300 people from all over the world. My Uber driver was from China and emigrated 1 month ago to Dallas. The guy at the booth next to me at the show works for a Chinese company headquartered in Hubei province where he visited in mid-November. Another guy I met at the show is off to India next week.  Everyone I speak to is concerned about the virus. I’m better informed than most thanks to this site, but even so, what can I do? This is my job. So I shake their hands and exchange nervous snide comments and then sneak a dollop of hand sanitizer before my next meeting. I’m wearing masks on my flight but I’m the exception and that’s far from my only risk vector. My 3 year old is in preschool in snohomish county which has the distinguished honor of being the first US county to receive a diagnosed case of wuful. Seems they caught that in time as we haven’t had a reported out break but with a potential 24 day incubation period this unholy bitch could be anywhere.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:50pm

    #30
    pat the rat

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    ninja virus

    Chris can list the reason why you are calling this a ninja virus?

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:53pm

    Mr Curious

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    what cities

    Skid Row, LA

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:55pm

    #32

    nickbert

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    Possible 1st coronavirus case (and death) in Mongolia

    My wife works as a training manager for the nursing department at one of the private hospitals here in Ulaanbaatar. She just heard this morning at work that there is a coronavirus case in Mongolia (Khuvsgul province), and that person has died. The area was already under a state of caution (bars & clubs closed, food & clothing markets closed for a couple days for disinfection), but it sounds like gov't will now be quarantining the area and is sending a response team. I guess she'll be attending a conference call soon between the Health Ministry and management from all the other hospitals, where they will be given the official status and their marching orders. It hasn't been 100% confirmed ant it hasn't hit the public news yet, but no doubt will tonight.

    Sounds like the initial gov't recommendations she heard included having 2 months' of food stored. Our family has that no problem (thanks in part to following this site since late 2008!), but our extended family? Not so much. They have full freezers of meats, berries, and such, but not so much shelf-stored staples. They need to get on that.

    Our children and their cousins have been staying outside the city for five days now with their grandparents, and it sounds like this is likely to continue. I'm honestly more concerned with the impacts to supply chains and the local economy than I am with us directly catching CoVid19, but I'm still happy to spare our kids from that possibility.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:57pm

    #33
    robbie

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    North Korea extends quarantine from 14 to 30 days

    Good to see the WHO taking the lead on this...

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:00pm

    #34

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Flight to Croatia

    I would suggest taking a small backpack/shoulder bag and take essentials to keep with you at all times.  Include meds, airborne, vitamins, change of underwear, snacks, water, chargers, sanitizers, masks etc.  Eat healthy, take extra supplements to offset the stress of traveling.  A neck scarf can help to keep you warm and doesn't take up room. Think of the bag as if you got stranded what would you be really glad you had.

    Good luck!

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:02pm

    BillL

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    BillL said:

    I'll tell you what I tell everyone who leaves the country, (and that is not with a pandemic in China).  "They ought to have you sign a wavier that says, I am an adult and if something bad happens to me or I get sick I am on my own.  I will not expect anyone to save me, I accept this risk and responsibility knowing full well that I may never see the USA again."

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:08pm

    #36
    Sparky1

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    WHO will shoot the messenger to prevent accelerating the "infodemic" (and to appease China?)

    (hat tip to Saxplayer, who posted this article from USNews on the "24-day incubation period" thread):

    WHO Denounces Claim of Potential 60% Coronavirus Infection Rate (Source)

    '"Everyone is talking about social media. Everyone is talking about staying calm and keeping our populations calm. Yet every chance we get we seem like we want to accelerate the infodemic and not contain the epidemic," said Mike Ryan, the executive director of World Health Organization's health emergencies program. "

    '"Let's be careful in throwing around figures, speculation and scaring people," Ryan continued. "I just caution everybody to not start throwing around figures that there is no basis for at the moment." '

    The "basis" for the figures being "thrown around" is highly-credible research shared and discussed with the WHO, CDC, CCP, HK officials, and others in January. The problem seems to be that the public is starting to notice that the virus is indeed spreading and is concerned that it may not be under control after all.

    Apparently WHO officials took issue with an estimate provided by Dr. Gabriel Leung, renowned epidemiologist and Chair of Public Health Medicine at Hong Kong University, that 60% of the world's population could be infected by nCoV/COVID-19 if left "unchecked", as reported in this article by The Guardian:

    Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'  (Source)

    "The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist."

    "At the end of January, he [Dr. Leung] warned in a paper in the Lancet that outbreaks were likely to be “growing exponentially” in cities in China, lagging just one to two weeks behind Wuhan. Elsewhere, “independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable” because of the substantial movement of people who were infected but had not yet developed symptoms, and the absence of public health measures to stop the spread."

    Not only did Dr. Leung and his fellow researchers break with the WHO/CDC/CCP narrative that the virus was contained, he enlisted the public to become informed and take precautions. This recent WHO denouncement may have also been triggered by Dr. Leung's comment below, which is at odds with the CCP's laws concerning "spreading harmful rumors" and promoting social "disharmony".

    "Hong Kong, which has 36 confirmed cases of coronavirus, was in the worst possible set of circumstances for fighting a raging epidemic, said Leung.
    “You need extra trust, extra sense of solidarity, extra sense of goodwill, all of which have been completely used up – every last drop in that social capital fuel tank has been exhausted after now eight months of social unrest, so it couldn’t have come at a worse time,” he said."

    Dr. Leung is very brave, and hopefully his very high professional standing and his international visibility on this pandemic will insulate him from retaliation. In contrast, WHO and its leaders are really beginning to look ineffective and less concerned about pubic health than currying political favor and trade stability.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:11pm

    #37
    dakota

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    Are some of the Covid-19 videos from Chris not posted?

    I think that all of the videos should be posted on the 'Complete Coverage' page. For instance, the one on Cytokines is not here (as far as I can see; correct me if I'm wrong). There has been at least one other that I found on YouTube, but could not find here. And it would be nice to number the videos or have a date in the Title.  Would be easier to keep track.

    Thank you for your coverage, Chris and Adam.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:13pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Meeting 100 Croatian ladies

    Granny, if he's going to meet a 100 Croatian ladies I would suggest he just take his shaving kit, some breathe mints and few nice ties. LOL!

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:28pm

    #39
    Tom Sammy

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    Health experts warn Congress coronavirus may hit US hard in next two to four weeks

    Good to see some logical warnings being communicated to Senate committee members.  Hopefully they are taking action accordingly!

    Quotes:

    Some of the modeling out of the U.K. suggests that we're capturing about 25% of cases at best. So for every case we identify, there's three or four that we didn't identify.”

    One or a few breakouts may happen on a local level, but until there is a trend or deadly case, local governments may not realize or be able to sound off and at least some of those cases, probably are propagating at a local level, but not enough cases have accumulated yet to be identifiable.”

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/health-experts-warn-congress-coronavirus-may-hit-us-hard-in-next-two-to-four-weeks

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:31pm

    #40
    asgordon123

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    meanwhile back at the bat cave.....

    wonder what's happening with the 250 quadrillion in derivate bets............bizarrely quiet on that front....

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:11pm

    #41
    Desogames

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    The numbers will still accelerate.

    Lets take the very best case scenario, that china is now telling the truth and there really are no more cases. That still doesn't put us out of the woods.

    Looking at the province numbers on wuflu.live, the provinces below Hubei keep accelerating at a steady pace. The cases they report continue to increase, and the rate of increase is also still increasing. For a while it was 2 provinces with more then 1000 cases. Now there are 3 and we're 1 bad report away from having 5.

    Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and South Korea are all also still increasing and the rate of cases continues to increase as well (the numbers of increased cases started jumping, from 2 to 3 to 5 to 8 more cases in Thailand). Japan's real numbers are obscured now thanks to that damned ship; which is bad, because japan was leading the list with Thailand before they started adding the ship to the country's totals.

    Not to mention we're now going to get another wave of infections between now and 3 weeks from the people who did return to work in china and infected everybody else. It's like i've been saying; Communists only think in production targets. The leadership expects them to be met, the grunts expect to meet them, and everybody lies along the way.

    What continues to worry me is the increase in jumps in the other provinces, despite the lock down. If anything it shows that the lock downs in other provinces aren't doing much to stop the speed at which this is spreading.

    As for the validity of those provincial numbers.... they're probably on the low end, but as long as they remain under the daily testing limit of the area; i'm willing to ascribe more value of truth to them. Once other provinces start reporting the limit of their testing capabilities all bets are off.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:12pm

    #42

    LesPhelps

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    I wonder if other countries are following China's reporting lead?

    I can't help but wonder if other countries are quietly quarantining infected people, without reporting it.

    I keep expecting more infected outside China, but the numbers remain small.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:17pm

    #43
    aggrivated

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    Impossible to find full safety

    As I have listened to many knowledgeable and sensible people on this site and elsewhere the fear factor reminds me of early attitudes during the AIDS discovery,  We forget what medicine is like when a communicable disease is unknown or there is no cure. Doctors, nurses and family members have faced TB, yellow fever, black plague with common sense, courage and faith in their immune system/God/fate and/or some combo thereof.

    We can be thankful for our medical technology and it's help, but in the end Covid 19 may well do a blind side tackle on many of us.

    So, my hope is that none of us let fear cause paralysis. May we all remember the eight forms of capital as we prepare. Abe Lincoln once said, 'If I had eight hours to chop down a tree, I'd spend six hours sharpening my axe.'

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:19pm

    #44
    Desogames

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    More yes men

    Oh and i wanted to add this as well; since i just saw a SCMP news message that they're replacing the top Hubei communist party official:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3050372/coronavirus-beijings-purge-over-virus-takes-down-top-communist

    And i just wanted to say how that changes nothing. "Close ally of Xi Jinping" means "yes man". As in, Xi tells him X, and he says Yes. He won't say it's unwise, or other approaches are better. You don't become a close ally to Stalin by telling him he's wrong. Any opposition will be seen as rivalistic and will not be tolerated. Suppose you oppose the dictator, and you turn out to be right? Can't have that.

    I would say this makes things worse, and that would be true if these new officials replaced competent officials, but no. All i'm seeing is the same bureaucrats with the same agenda, so they will make the same decisions.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:26pm

    #45
    Alexis

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    So when will USA go into panic mode?

    New quarantines in place Georgia also https://nypost.com/2020/02/12/georgia-residents-returning-from-china-forced-into-self-isolation-over-coronavirus-fears/

    Per the excerpt above that Adam linked--> Add ~13k to the daily count of cases for at least the past 15d to account for clinically diagnosed cases, that is 195k more infected... now take 2.1% of that... Now do we see the panic China has? Yep. Maybe those Tencent numbers were right. 🙁

    Cruise ship prisons.. anyone think they are doing a wee bit of a transmission study there? Of note, I read that the Japanese official who was infected by monitoring the ship did not wear hazmat suit but wore other PPE. FWIW.

    Study with R4.7 - 6.6 so now its unstoppable then https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

    Which demographic affected most? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v1.full.pdf+html

    Pollution and Infectious Disease...  https://cen.acs.org/environment/persistent-pollutants/Linking-pollution-infectious-disease/97/i11

    We are flat out being lied to by China and now our government is comparing a true crisis in China to the common cold, which does not typically drop into the lower lung for even half of people. The first cohort of 41 patients in December, ALL patients had pneumonia. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext "Who you gonna believe, me (CCP, CDC, WHO) or your lying eyes?"

    YouTube MedCram did a interesting video today on TH1 response to virus, said SLEEP will help fight the virus. Starting a series of how to help improve sleep next. Makes sense the elderly population and sleep deprived would have harder time engaging the right immune fight, whereas children typically get the most sleep and would have the best TH1 response per his video today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8

    If anyone comes across outcomes of children, especially 5 and under or breastfeeding contributing to infant viral load/ infection like HIV does or benefit as usual, please share. Or any information about asthmatics and this virus. Thanks for all the tips along the way!

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:34pm

    Mr_Mayhem

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    Re: City Sewers

    I am a taxi driver in Las Vegas, Nevada, and the sewer drains here stink like you describe. When I stop at certain lights I catch a nose full and it’s pretty bad. This could become a serious spreading mechanism once we get a significant number of cases and if the virus spreads via aerosol or smaller particles. They should drive a water tanker around filled with swimming pool water or a little stronger bleach water and kill the smells and germs.

    They could increase the maintenance level too in the long run. I would like to see a study find coronavirus or other virus in that sewer smell plume coming out of the drains.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:56pm

    #47

    dtrammel

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    Back of the Napkin Figure

    Would anyone think I'm out of the ballpark with an estimate of Chinese numbers of 1.5-2 million infected and 40K dead? Just wondering...

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:58pm

    nordicjack

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    Adam, regarding big jump in numbers

    Yes that 60k with only about 7000 with some sort of disposition ( recovered or dead ) and 53k still sick - when you have 1400 people dead out 60000 and 53000 still sick , my guess is you will end up with nearly 9000 dead by the time there is disposition of all those cases.   So 60,000 infected almost 9,000 dead.    ( if all resolves out as number resolved - however that ratio has been fluid and improving towards recovery )   that does not compare to the flu, as that amount dead would be from an estimated 20 million infected not 60k

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:06pm

    nordicjack

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    westcoast dog - please check your facts

    You said 82% were mild cases ( which may be ) but you said all 13 cases in the US were mild.  Not so.. The washington case was not mild and needed serious intervention by medical procedures and significant medications.     Additionally, last week, it was anounced both of the first 2 california cases ( both husband and wife )were admitted to the hospital as serious cases.   That was 3/12 at the time -that is 25% serious in the US.. off the bat.. and we are not done.. the 13 are not recovered.. serious illness is about 3 weeks out or more from infection.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:18pm

    nordicjack

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    dt napkin figures

    That is within possibility.  Just considering the flu is expected to hit 15-20% of the population annually in the US.  So, considering how closely people live and associated in a city of 11 million with ZERO inherent immunity,  There is no reason to not expect at least that many.  If not for the draconian measures , Id expect withing 2 mos, 3 million or more infected.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:41pm

    #51
    nordicjack

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    Ignorant americans have no clue - this will show how much of problem this will be for the US

    I keep telling people, normally, I wouldn't worry about this virus. I believe with access to adequate health care this is survivable for all but maybe 1% or less.   The problem I see is how many this affects seriously to require that level of healthcare.   I am aware that most countries could not handle the burden of a second flu mind something even slightly worse.  The US is much less of a position than most countries to handle this - contrary to the average ignorant american knowing what the country is in healthcare compared to the world.. SO, I offer the following chart for your consideration..

    https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Health/Hospital-beds/Per-1,000-people

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:49pm

    #52
    John103

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    Any connection?

    I am grateful to have found this source.  I really appreciate the straight talk!  Mentioned in this video was the unfortunate result of the attempts to make a SARS vaccine.  China implemented a law requiring people to be vaccinated (not sure against what but am assuming it would be whatever baddies might be floating around at the moment).  This law went into effect on Dec 1, 2019.  I saw a reference to this somewhere so I googled and found this article.  Just wondering if there was possibly a massive vaccination that may have made them more susceptible to this.  Hard to imagine but maybe there was an unintended result?  Admittedly grasping at straws but it would explain why China is getting hit so much harder.  Would love to know exactly what they were being required to vaccinate against.

    https://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/china-vaccine-law-passed/

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:59pm

    nordicjack

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    Regarding Any Connection

    This is a very important observation.  And we thank you for bringing this to our attention.   There are considerable studies showing vaxing and over vaxing actually impairs immunity specifically to new threats.   It is possible to have more severe illness where people receive many more vaccines.   I will try to source some of those studies..

    Edit to original post:  After speaking with my wife, she mentioned something else that may actually be more useful.   What if we have a vax history on all the cases..   severe and mild.  I think that would be really valuable and I wonder if there is any correlation.  My guess is there is a high probability on this.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 10:15pm

    #54
    Sparky1

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    My dental visit. No special nCoV precautions in practice, but personal concerns apparent

    This morning I went for my semi-annual dental check-up and I was super conscious about potential nCoV--er, I mean COVID-19--prevention and control. This is a busy practice with two dentists (one is the owner) and maybe 15 workers. The facility and equipment are new w/in the past 2 years,  with about a dozen dental stations, separate accounting, reception and waiting areas in a modified open floor plan. Central air conditioning and heating throughout. Most of the dental stations were occupied, and there were people milling about in all areas.

    Based on my many previous visits, everything looked like it was "business as usual." Gloves and surgical masks, maybe eye protection, on when only when working on the patient's teeth.

    I've gone to this dental hygienist for years and we're quite friendly and candid. I asked her if she or the staff had received any information, training or were taking special precautions due to the coronavirus. She said she had heard of it from the news, didn't know a lot about it, but that the practice wasn't doing anything different than normal. "Why, should I be concerned??"

    I told her in low-key, simple terms about R0, lack of reliable data due to underreporting, not just a "bad flu", known/suspected means of transmission, basic recommendations to prevent spread. I told her about CDC recommendations and procedures for health care providers (e.g., pre-screening for fever, PPE, separation from other patients, triage, referrals and testing). She was stunned, "We're not doing any of that!"

    I gave her the PP/CM website and YT addresses letting her know that this was a reliable resource used by people from all different backgrounds.

    Then she shared with me that she was very concerned because her parents were flying to New Orleans this week to go to Mardi Gras then go on a cruise for their 40th wedding anniversary. =:-0   She said they had been planning this for a very long time. They planned to go with another couple, who backed-out due to concerns about the coronavirus. She said her parents are in good health and decided that they didn't want to live in fear, so would go after all.  She was aware of the cruises under quarantine, and that one ship with no suspected/confirmed nCoV cases was turned away from 5 countries.

    She said she'd look into PP and other information. I know she's very concerned for her parents, and I was sorry to add to that.

    Tomorrow I think I'll call the dentist who owns the practice and ask him what his plans are for preventing nCoV transmission and infection to his patients and staff.

    A ray of sunshine, I am.  :-/

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 10:36pm

    #55
    Sparky1

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    American Dental Association nCoV recommendations: standard precautions, flu remains a greater threat

    Source:  ADA News (2/7/2020)

    CDC reminds clinicians to use standard precautions, recommends isolating patients with coronavirus symptoms

    WHO declares ‘public health emergency,’ but flu remains greater threat to average Americans

    "The use of standard precautions within the dental workplace and acquiring a thorough history of symptoms and potential exposure for patients is critical for dental health care professionals to maintain a healthy working environment, whether the concern is flu, 2019-nCoV or other transmissible illnesses," said Dr. Maria Geisinger, chair of the ADA Council on Scientific Affairs. "Furthermore, postponing nonemergent dental care in individuals who are ill and proper referral for diagnosis of suspected cases of transmissible illness is a critical role that the dentist can play in reducing the spread of these dangerous diseases."

    "The CDC's Guidelines for Infection Control in Dental Health-Care Settings—2003 [Source] notes dental health care personnel may consider postponing nonemergency or elective dental procedures until a patient is no longer contagious with diseases that can be transmitted through airborne, droplet or contact transmission."

    "If urgent dental treatment is needed and 2019-nCoV infection is confirmed or suspected, the care should be provided in a facility where there is a minimum of six air changes per hour, such as a hospital with dental care capabilities, according to the CDC. Information on respiratory protection programs is available on the Occupational Safety and Health Administration website [Source]."

    "The immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time, according to the CDC, emphasizing the flu is currently a greater threat. The CDC estimates there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from the flu so far this season."

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 11:30pm

    #56
    SteveW

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    Treating a bad cold

    The poor results with SARS vaccines where secondary challenge frequently led to lung pathology, as Chris explained in https://youtu.be/HrqRAtViUZw, also led me to wonder whether this might be occurring in the current Chinese epidemic by secondary infections.

    Today we learned from WHO that there are 4 most promising vaccines. If the SARS experience is to be seen with COVID-19 then vaccines will be useless. The monoclonal recombinant ACE2-IgG product that greendoc mentioned has led me to wonder whether the ACE2 protein could be delivered in an adeno associated virus.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 11:46pm

    yagasjai

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    Reply to Any Connection?

    Chris just covered in this video about how a trial of a SARS vaccine in animals actually activated a damaging immune response when the live SARS virus was introduced. Starts at about minute 14.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 11:55pm

    nordicjack

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    reply also to any connection -

    I was aware of that, "failed SARS vaccine"  issue.   But there are "safe vaccines" given each day including the flu that shows similar results.. not so much to included strains but to a new and foreign strain.  But the point is well taken and the science is the same mostly.. Vaccines can actually damage the immune response.   ( under or over train he immune system )

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:05am

    #59
    nordicjack

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    Cruise ship - what the hell ? really?

    I was wondering if food services could be source of cross contamination.    - I would have thought that the serving part would have been sterile,  and then the retrieval of the food trays would have been as a contaminant.   After seeing, an interview with the food staff,  I was surprised , it would appear there is no cross contamination protocol in place.. amazing.!!  They should have two separate staffs handling that .. and treat the retrieval as infectious.   and the delivery as single delivery with no interaction.  so that it will cause cross to the next delivery.   I am pretty shocked - they are just spreading from room to room.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:08am

    #60
    nordicjack

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    CDC now acknowledges this will likely get a "Foothold" in this USA

    Gosh, the writing has been on the wall for 2 and half weeks.   I wonder what made them state this today?

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:09am

    Montana Native

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    NINJA Virus

    Why not....maybe draw some attention to his work.  Perhaps the Chinese citizens will culturally appropriate the moniker.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:43am

    nordicjack

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    reply to Ninja Virus

    I am not sure that will go over well.  As Ninja is Japanese, not Chinese.    However, I still like the Kung flu.

    By Definition : Kung Fu

     kung fu can refer to any discipline or skill achieved through hard work and practice

    So, it would seem fitting - considering how much discipline and work went into these draconian measures.

    Used in a sentence:

    Incredibly, the Chinese built an entire hospital in one week because of their Kung Flu.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 1:47am

    kunga

    kunga

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    Cross contamination

    Good points re: food handling on ship.  Napoleon said something like: "Ignorance and stupidity can bring down a country just as well as treason."

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 3:10am

    VeganDB12

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    bad cold analogy very misleading re: case identification

    One of the distinguishing features of COVID 19 is that it usually starts in the lungs not the nose.  Cough and fever rather than runny nose and sneezing.  People need to understand the difference.  Perhaps Knowing this will reduce anxiety when people DO get colds.   MSM is doing people a disservice making that comparison.

    I am of the opinion that there are cases here that are being misidentified due to lack of testing and the overlap with flu season.  Pure conjecture of course until we get an available test. Until we are making an educated guess except for those with access to testing kits and the ability to do repeat testing as needed.

    Sad to see so many new cases in China.  I am in New York and don't even know how to talk to people about social distancing once it hits or ideally before then.  Folks here think we can handle anything and maybe we can.....lots of bravado.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 4:02am

    Laura from Texas

    Laura from Texas

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    Flu Names

    Because Xi dislikes the characterization so much:  Winnie-the-Flu.

    And, more darkly, Die-Chi.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:00am

    Sparky1

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    China mandatory vaccine law, connection to COVID outbreak?

    Nice find, John103, and welcome to the PP community! I had not heard about this Chinese law, effective December 2019, for mandatory vaccine manufacture tracking, mandatory state-sponsored immunizations program, and compensation program for those with "abnormal" reactions.  Reposting your link here in case others missed it:  https://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/china-vaccine-law-passed/

    You said, "Just wondering if there was possibly a massive vaccination that may have made them more susceptible to this. Hard to imagine but maybe there was an unintended result? "

    Several studies and models indicate that the first cases of coronavirus infection in China were identified mid-November 2019. But that doesn't preclude exposure through vaccine trials or "escaped" viruses used in vaccine development before the law went into effect. Certainly there would be a ramping-up of vaccine production/tracking and administration of vaccines to the public in anticipation of the new law taking effect. It might also explain why the virus is so virulent in China, but not as much elsewhere (yet).

    Pure speculation at present and we may never know for certain. But if true, there's no question that Chinese (and WHO and other?) officials know and are motivated to keep this connection under wraps for the "greater good" of maintaining public confidence in vaccines and the institutions and regimes supporting them.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:22am

    #67
    ThanksChris

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    Pertinent New Information from yesterday's US Senate Roundtable

    https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/are-we-prepared-protecting-the-us-from-global-pandemics

    Last 30 mins are especially insightful. Covers

    US supply line disruption for drugs and medical equipment.
    Expectations for Epidemic in the Homeland
    Importance of Singapore & Japan for tracking cases. (Singapore is 90°F)
    Public health and prevention.
    Need to test patients with viral Pneumonia for Covid-19 in US.

    Everything Dr. Gottlieb says is gold btw

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:26am

    MarkM

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    Dentistry-Sparky1

    After 37 years of dental practice, here are my thoughts.

    There is no way that a dental office can be made "safe", given what it appears this virus is capable of. All day long I put a rotary instrument at 400,000rpm into a pool of saliva, aerosolizing everything it comes in contact with. I will not be donning PPE of an infectious disease setting to do a procedure and bill an insurance company 150 or 200 dollars. Economically it is unviable and from a personal health perspective for me and those close to me it is irresponsible.

    At the point that these drastic measures are warranted, I will lock the door and go home. The 64,000 dollar question is, when is that point. I live in a major metropolitan area. Is it when one case is reported locally? Two? Ten? Now? This is what keeps me awake at night lately. I can realistically see this happening. My staff and wife just get puzzled looks on their faces when I say this. Although the wife is no longer using SARS as a benchmark when I bring this up. Sadly, if this occurs, my staff that I care greatly about will suffer the most. None are prepared for ANYTHING, much less a lapse in their income.

    Fortunately, dentistry is rarely a life threatening emergency. I don't have a great moral dilemma about suspending my practice.

    If you are as concerned as you sound for your own health, you must decide when to stop seeing your dentist. Although, I think the greater risk is for the personnel involved. If the office you visit is not thinking this is a potential outcome, they are sadly unprepared, in my opinion. Not to mention, I foresee a point that we cannot get the supplies to stay open, even if there are no local infections.

    Interesting times, indeed. I hope your hygienist will take your suggestion and visit PP.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:02am

    #69

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    4+

    If you Can't Afford $400 For An Emergency, How Will You Afford Self Quarantine?

    That's the big question here in America. Several articles I've read say American middle class and Working poor can't even scrap together $400 for an emergency like auto repair. How do we expect that when told to self quarantine for 2-3 weeks, that any of those people will be able to do it?

    They won't. They will drag themselves into work and try to do it sick. They will drop off their children to daycare sick. They will spread it to their co-workers and the store clerks they meet on the way home.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:04am

    #70

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    Tamiflu?

    Do we have any information on whether Tamiflu works on this virus? I've got a partial script from a bout of influenza A from last year in my medicine cabinet.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:20am

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    BillL said:

    Thanks for your honest comment Mark and your immense common sense.

    Meanwhile, people here on this blog act like they are super informed and ahead of the curve.  Yet they are still traveling to and fro, asking others for advice like it will make a difference if things go tango uniform.  Maybe it is in their mind that then they can blame someone else for their bad decision if shtf.  Who knows?  It can't happen to me is a rampant belief these days.

    Seems you may be near retirement.  Perhaps it is time to find a buyer...or close the doors if conditions dictate.  Savvy employees should have figured this out or asked you what may happen by now.  If they haven't they will.

    Ah the life of being self-employed.

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:27am

    Dutchman

    Dutchman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 12 2020

    Posts: 5

    1+

    Reply at #14 Sewers, Feces & Airborne Virus

    The reason for this spraying that you see in videos is to kill cockroaches and rodents. This was already "normal" (in China) before the outbreak of COVID-19.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:47am

    #73
    Gerald Melino

    Gerald Melino

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 16 2011

    Posts: 12

    Counting method revised in China

    China basically admitted that its case count has been 'estimated' for the last several weeks, probably due to lack of testing capability, and has a new way to count its infected. This may explain the dramatic rise in reported cases, but have they also found a new way to count dead people? The daily increase in deaths has gone from an average of 13%  with little variation from a simple model to 23% today.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:04am

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    BillL said:

    d...The articles that I have seen over the years (on the $400 thing) put that number of people at 30-50%.  I will also clue you that many of them are not employed, don't want to work, have subsidized housing, on Medicaid or a Social Security Disability, food stamps, wic, etc.  I read an article a few years back at ZH that listed the states in order as to how much you could get as a "free-crapper".  Hawaii was first...Over $60K...to do nothing and receive a "standard of living".  I think $18K was the lowest.  In my state, it was $28K.  Which surprised the heck out of me.  Most people who work for some one here full time don't make that working.  Another little note...Bank tellers "our age" hate this time of year at my bank.  It is when single (no job) mothers dressed to the nine's drag their 3-5 kids (to several men) in to cash their, "earned income tax credit" checks.  Checks vary for $5-12K per mom.  Thank God that the FED has a printing press.

    I am not saying this is true of all of that percentage.  Yes, there are those who drag their sick asses to work and contaminate others.  The sad part is it is those producing people who should who should be able to stay home.  Have some paid sick days, etc.  Alas...just not how it is in the US these days.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:05am

    #75

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    1+

    Clarification on Number Spike

    Possible explanation as to why earlier tests, which involved a mouth swab might have shown a negative in infected people.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/what-you-need-to-know-about-shock-45-jump-in-hubei-virus-cases

    "Officials said that the surge in numbers resulted from including a new group of patients diagnosed through the use of CT imaging scans -- so-called clinical diagnosis -- alongside those confirmed by the previous method of nucleic acid testing kits.

    Of the 14,840 new cases, 13,332 are from the new method of clinical diagnosis. The death toll in the province rose by 242 cases, of which 135 involved the new method, it said.

    --

    The nucleic acid test is used to see whether the virus can be detected in a specimen from a patient’s respiratory tract. But the virus may be concentrated in areas deep in the lung, meaning a specimen from the upper respiratory tract may lead to false negatives.

    “A patient may be found as negative for the first or second test, and then found to be positive the third time,” said Jonathan Yu, a doctor at a university hospital in Wuhan, in an interview last month. “It is like fishing in a pond: You did not catch a fish once, but that does not mean the pond does not have fish.”

    There also aren’t enough test kits and medical staff to do the specimen scrub in Hubei province, where medical facilities are at breaking point. People have reported standing in line for hours to get tested, only to be sent home if the result is negative, even if they have a fever and cough.

    --

    It is unclear whether the nearly 15,000 added infections are a one-time adjustment to include every patient diagnosed with CT scans up until now, or whether they are from a single day. If it is the latter, the addition reveals the true scale of the infection spread in Hubei.

    Neither the Hubei health commission nor the central government health commission responded to requests for clarification.

    ---

    We'll have to watch the numbers for the next few days. If this was a one time correction, then we could expect the numbers to resume the fake 2.1 rate increase we've been seeing. If not them expect the numbers to get higher.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:11am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 664

    1+

    CDC (finally) acknowledges Covid "foothold" in US: CDC information and action, too little too late

    The CDC has known about the Covid threat for a lot longer than 2.5 weeks ago, more likely mid-Nov. when the first cases came to light in China. They've used the time to  assess the threat from the virus and any possible economic and societal collateral damage, align their allies and resources, and refine their information/communications strategy and talking points. The emphasis seems to be on mollifying the public, minimizing trade disruptions, and providing flaccid public health interventions well past time when they could significantly impact the scope and severity of the pandemic spread.

    The CDC has been late to act on almost every key opportunity to stem the spread of this virus. Heath officials and researchers in China and elsewhere identified the likelihood of person-to-person and asymptomatic transmission several weeks ago. Hong Kong acknowledges that the virus is now self-spreading through community acquired transmission and infection. Research concerning infectivity questioned the initial 3-day, then the 14-day standard incubation periods. New research that shows up to 24-days infectivity suggests that a longer period may be necessary. North Korea just instituted mandatory 30-day quarantine for suspected Covid infected.

    CDC's response in these and other instances has typically been that the evidence or data was "insufficient" to revise current protocols or take action. But they would study and discuss it. Only recently when dissenting voices from the scientific community and public have become too loud to ignore has the CDC modified their position or talking points.  Reluctantly, the CDC's information and action are too little to late to mitigate the spread of this pandemic.

    Recently, the CDC developed and shipped Covid test kits to health departments and other labs across the US to expedite testing and accurate diagnosis. The tests don't work. Until corrected, all US testing can only be done by CDC.

    Pathetic really, and frustrating when considering millions of lives are at stake.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:14am

    #77

    nickbert

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 283

    2+

    Mongolia's coronavirus case still not (officially) confirmed

    My wife just told me the Mongolian government's position is that the coronavirus victim dying in Khuvsgul was a "careless rumor" and are preparing to fine the person who spread (or leaked?) it two million Tugriks (~$750). I suppose it's certainly possible, but the government here (like all others) has some vested interests not in alignment with transparency. My wife seriously doubts the government's story and thinks they're hiding it. We'll just have to wait and see.

    Apparently, the rumor got around enough on Facebook that many Mongolians flocked to the stores to stock up on food and supplies. I found it interesting that most of the Mongolians in the store had heavy emphasis on raw staple foods (flour, rice, oil, root vegetables, meat, etc.) in their carts. Not nearly so much packaged food like you find when some Americans go to the store to panic buy before a hurricane or what not. Memories are long enough to remember the hard times and rationing at the stores in the early 90's I suppose.

    At least there wasn't any sense of panic and everyone was behaving in a friendly manner. Still, with the sight of some of the items being sold out it was hard to resist the temptation to get more than the handful of things I had on my list.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:17am

    #78

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    5+

    Doesn't Matter If They Work Or Not, Bill. They Will Still Get Sick.

    I can't speak for single mothers Bill but until I just retired, I worked at a large company which sold metal. Of the warehouse staff, probably 2/3rd were under 30 and the majority didn't have that $400. One of the reasons the company could run under manned, so many of the workers had to take every extra hour of over time they could get.

    Now I will say that much of their problem was lack of common sense on things like budgets and having an emergency fund of money set aside. They couldn't afford to take 2-3 days off when they got sick, let alone 2-3 weeks to self quarantine. That means they will come into work and spread it.

    As for single parents, caring for a adult who gets sick is going to be hard, imagine caring for 2-3 children. Those mothers will be at the ER very quickly with no insurance, little patience and a crying child. As someone elderly and at risk, I'm staying away from hospitals unless I'm about to die.

    Also, we've been lucky so far. 1st Generation infected have been people with money and credit cards. No one whose taking trips to China is someone working a minimum wage job. Those people can self quarantine or have jobs that understand the illness and allow them time off. We won't be as lucky with the 2nd Gen infection wave. Once it hits the general population, having 30-40% of the population unable to go into self quarantine will stress the medical infrastructure to a breaking point.

    At least the Chinese government understood that, and helped out those that couldn't afford it in a small way (from the articles I've read). Do you honestly think given our current divided government, there is any way that it would help that 30-50% survive?

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:23am

    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    2+

    Pragmatic Advice

    Pre-screen over the phone for people with flu or cold symptoms. If you do this programatically, just add to the message "Out of caution for other patients we ask that you reschedule your visit if you are experiencing cold or flu symptoms, which can include ..."

    If someone shows up has cold or flu symptoms ask them to come in at a later date. Take temperatures of anyone with mild symptoms, if they have a fever, ask them come back at a later date. Ask anyone with a cough or sniffles to wear a mask.

    Not sure how much this would add to your cost but it would seem a small step to take for protection. Of course, insurance and regulations could easily make it cost prohibitive. An infrared, non-touch forehead thermometer is costing $30-$50 on amazon.

    Just some thoughts, you know your business and clientele.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:27am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    7+

    Not Looking To Blame Anyone

    Meanwhile, people here on this blog act like they are super informed and ahead of the curve.  Yet they are still traveling to and fro, asking others for advice like it will make a difference if things go tango uniform.  Maybe it is in their mind that then they can blame someone else for their bad decision if shtf.  Who knows?  It can’t happen to me is a rampant belief these days.

    Actually I'd disagree with you Bill. Those of us following Chris and Adam's work here are very informed and ahead of the vast majority of people out there. You can see it in the comments of people like MarkM and Sparky1. They know the risks and are planning accordingly, as well as asking the people they run into what they plan for.

    No one is looking to blame others.

    What is prudent in my opinion is we know when to make the decision to quarantine and when its not yet time. You could go ahead and close your doors today, but then if it takes 3-4 weeks like I expect before the virus hits my city with anything above single digits, you risk using up your supplies and resources too early. You may not be able to resupply when the general population realizes the problem, nor when the real supply crunch from closed Chinese companies empties state side warehouses.

    Someone who got in a life boat and launched one day early on the Titanic, ended up sitting in the middle of the Atlantic all by themselves. That doesn't increase your chance of survival much.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:28am

    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    3+

    More info about government plans for pandemic control

    Here is a link to the planning document called Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13

    https://www.governmentattic.org/8docs/NORTHCON_CONPLAN_3551-09_2009.pdf

    https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/Publications/MCO%206220.1.pdf

    Interesting/concerning to note, we are already at Stage 4 as described in this document, "First human case in North America"

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:35am

    #82
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 134

    1+

    Case 15 in US

    From a quarantine group in San Antonio.  I wonder how long before a case is confirmed “in the wild” and not from one of the quarantines.

    15th Case of Coronavirus in U.S. Confirmed in Texas Patient

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:37am

    #83
    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 166

    4+

    Tamiflu appears ineffective against coronaviruses

    Long story short:

    Tamiflu likely not helpful for coronavirus infection given its 80% similarity to SARS. 

    There have been no studies specifically looking at Tamiflu and Covid-19, and likely will never be given the fact Tamiflu is not effective against SARS either and they are so genetically similar.

    Tamiflu is a neuraminidase inhibitor effective in stopping influenza viral replication. Influenza and corona viruses are different viruses altogether.

    Tamiflu/neuraminidase inhibitors have been tested a least twice that I can see for their efficacy against SARS, and were shown to be ineffective.  Some of the interferon based medications were helpful though.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18400797

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15200845

    Tested were 19 clinically approved compounds from several major antiviral pharmacologic classes: nucleoside analogs, interferons, protease inhibitors, reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and neuraminidase inhibitors. Complete inhibition of cytopathic effects of SARS-CoV in culture was observed for interferon subtypes, b-1b, a-n1, a-n3, and human leukocyte interferon a. These findings support clinical testing of approved interferons for the treatment of SARS.

    Tamiflu may help relieve symptoms of the flu however.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:48am

    #84

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3132

    2+

    Target, Best Buy could be hit by supply-chain disruptions because of coronavirus

    Target, Best Buy could be hit by supply-chain disruptions because of coronavirus

    Target Corp. and Best Buy Co. Inc. could be among the first U.S. companies to take a direct hit from the corona­virus outbreak as concerns grow about disruptions to supply chain networks in China.

    Although existing inventories are strong at most of the nation’s big-box retailers, analysts from Wells Fargo warn that shoppers could start seeing empty store shelves as early as mid-April.

    “We believe the time to start to worry about the supply chain risk ... is here,” the report said.

    http://www.startribune.com/target-best-buy-could-be-hit-by-supply-chain-disruptions-because-of-coronavirus/567819212/

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:52am

    vitalvision

    vitalvision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 08 2015

    Posts: 12

    3+

    Dentistry- I feel your pain

    I am a retired dental hygienist and reading your post I could feel the pain of your dilemma. I apologize for my feeling of relief knowing I am out of that danger as a retired professional and knowing you and others have to face this. There will be no perfect moment to say, "Doors are closed and you are out of work."  BTW, I practiced for 52 years, two countries and four states. My brother is a dentist and I have two sisters who are hygienists.  We are all retired now.  Together we did about 200 years of service to the profession. We practiced in the golden years it looks like. We went from bare hands to infection control as it stands today. This is a whole new chapter.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:16am

    #86

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    2+

    More On Africa

    https://www.zbcnews.co.zw/zimbabwe-has-506-people-being-monitored-for-suspected-novel-corona-virus/

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:16am

    #87
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 412

    Re 15 case

    Well , it appears that the last 3 US victims all quarantined,  show how many people really have this.  And they are still asking if this can be spread from person to person..   This is in the wild in USA - and its spreading like a small fire.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:29am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 664

    9+

    BillL, I disagree! The PP community is all about building resilience.

    Wow, BillL, I couldn't disagree with you more!

    You said, "...people here on this blog act like they are super informed and ahead of the curve. Yet they are still traveling to and fro, asking others for advice like it will make a difference if things go tango uniform. Maybe it is in their mind that then they can blame someone else for their bad decision if shtf. Who knows? It can’t happen to me is a rampant belief these days."

    The PP tribe is a pretty diverse group, and many of us are trying to be better informed about this virus. Most of us are trying to be better informed in general about the "three E's" and the world we live in. That's why we joined PP.

    I haven't seen any evidence that anyone here considers themselves to be "super-informed" and therefore "ahead of the curve" such that we'll be insulated from this pandemic and its impacts.

    Yeah, we're still "traveling to and fro" as most have jobs, family and community commitments, and personal interests and aspirations. In doing so, we take reasonable precautions as we weigh day-to-day necessities against a growing yet poorly defined threat. This is a dynamic, rapidly unfolding situation and we make adjustments as needed based on informed and constantly updated assessment.

    Of course we're asking and considering perspectives (not necessarily advice) from others within this knowledgeable and experienced PP community. Most of us are actively seeking information about the virus and related concerns, sharing and discussing what we know and raising questions about what we don't know. And most acknowledge that there's a lot we don't know about this virus. But having information, knowledge and skills; and making appropriate changes and preparations before a potential crisis hits will indeed improve one's chances to weather the crisis. Additionally, being informed and prepared will put us in a better position to help our loved ones and others.

    Most people here take personal responsibility for their own well-being, and learning and being a part of the PP community furthers that quest towards resilience.  No blame-culture or head-in-the-sand "it can't happen to me" thinking here.

    You joined PP about a month ago. Welcome! Perhaps you should look around the site, read many more of the articles and comments and keep an open mind. You may change you opinions when you get to know us a little better.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 9:04am

    #89
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 412

    1+

    still shocked at the media and ignorance

    I just read an article comparing this to h1n1   I thought something useful was there when i began to read it.   However, it was the same garbage of total ignorance.  Really appalling igorance.   First, let me say, when the H1N1 flu came out - I do not recall thinking this is the death of the nation.  I know I didn't prep.  And I know i did not think it would affect the supply chain and economy.  I wasn't concerned with how many died either.  What did concern me is who was dying.  Under 50s - not the usually elderly and infirm.  The whole cytokine storm thing.  Anyway, regarding the article - it was the same focus on numbers - OMG it infected 60M americans and killed 18000 that year worldwide..  OH the horror..  that is less than 1/40th of a percent.  !!    I am stunned that people are completely unable to compartmentalize the differences here.  They see these large numbers but have no ability to see what is really happening.   ( something like how many are serious cases ( vs total infected )  and the that a lot more people are dying from a smaller subset. They are waiting for someone to tell them it killed 30 million people before they go oh gosh.. is this a problem..    without thinking and rationalizing.    I think one should read the author definition of both of those terms.   I know people are dumb , but how do people have the ability to get jobs that puts them in this position if they are such morons.. that , I dont get.. oh yeah. their bosses are just as dumb.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 9:07am

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 141

    8+

    Getting stranded by travel restrictions

    Being stranded is a valid concern.  During the last Icelandic volcano eruption one of my team from Hungary was stranded when planes shut down.  Ended up taking a train into Russia and a LONG bus to Hungary.

    We learned two things - 1)  communicate your location - he gave both me and his family updates whenever he changed route or conveyance - phone text and company computer text.  Company paid the communication bill - local connectivity is neither free nor good.
    2)  We should have had a plan for that.  We knew it was possible when he left the US.  If I had it to do over, we'd have looked at the land routes from his first EU landing place AND we would have been monitoring flight diversion so if he landed somewhere else, we could have a couple of options ready for him.

    So, from every landing spot on your air route know:  where is the closest US embassy/consulate, what are a couple of land routes to a safer place, how likely is the border to close (based on history).
    then monitor conditions on PP as you travel.
    If you should need help, ask for it.  We all have connections in EU that we can offer depending on where you are.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 9:24am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    8+

    The highest risk environment is hospital wait rooms

    I can hardly agree with you more DTrammel. Stay out of hospitals and clinics! From everything I have been reading over these past few weeks the single biggest risk we face when it comes to becoming infected is contact with other sick people in hospital wards and waiting rooms.

    For too many people, their ingrained habit is to run and see a doctor for every little cough or ache and complaint.

    But this is one time we must think very seriously before we get into a lineup for testing just to make ourselves feel better.

    Let's get that message out to people. There is going to be tremendous pressure on the entire medical system. We should not be using it unless it's absolutely necessary over the coming months.

    It is much better to self diagnose. Sniffles, coughs and even fever do not normally kill healthy people. If our symptoms are familiar (we have all had flus and colds before) then let's leave the emergency room chairs to the people who really need them.

    We will be doing our families and friends a huge favour by NOT bringing home Covid19 acquired simply because we just had to go to the hospital to get checked.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 9:37am

    SteveW

    SteveW

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jan 21 2010

    Posts: 159

    2+

    When is it time to hole up?

    I think it depends upon your local situation which I hope you can track. When that Brit imported COVID-19 from Singapore to France I think it indicated community transmission in Singapore, something the PM has addressed, since there was no apparent chain of infection.

    For example the metro Vancouver situation has 4 cases. The first, a frequent traveller to China, returned from Wuhan and tested positive Jan 28. The second, a local resident tested positive Feb 3, her two house guests from Wuhan subsequently tested positive. Our Provincial CDC says a low barrier has been used for testing and 264 persons have tested negative. So these cases have not established foci of infection and all four are said to be recovering at home, under observation. The exact location of these cases has not been given but I suspect there is good chance they are in my community of 60% Chinese Canadians.

    On Jan 31 I was at a local poker table for 2-3 hours sat next to someone who had returned from Shanghai on Jan 28. He said it was deserted. I've been monitoring myself but my winter snivels have not worsened, my cough is better and I have no fever.

    As the Westerdam illustrates fear is a major concern, not that one should not be prudent. So learn as much as can about your local situation and in the end it's a personal choice.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 9:45am

    #93
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    3+

    Re : Any connection?

    I like good conspiracy theories.

    So China was preparing a bio weapon with the corona virus.

    They vaccinated silently their population.

    But this causes the cases to react violently to new infections.

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 9:47am

    #94

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3132

    2+

    "patient zero" escape in Singapore.....Maybe call it the Wudini Virus

    Hunt on for 'patient zero' who spread coronavirus globally from Singapore

    “Everyone assumes it was a delegate but it could have been a cleaner, it could have been a waiter,” said Paul Tambyah, an infectious diseases expert at National University Singapore. He added it was “very important” to find “patient zero” to establish other possible “chains of transmission”.
    But time may be running out.

    Singapore health ministry’s Kenneth Mak said the government will continue to try and identify the initial carrier until the outbreak ends, but as days pass it will get harder.

    “We might never be able to tell who that first patient is,” Mak said.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:00am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 664

    1+

    BillL, sounds like you're having a Crappy day. You should get out more. :-)

    I'm not sure what you're reading, watching or who you're hanging-with, but you certainly have a dismal view of people.

    The gap between the "have's" and the "have-nots" has grown enormously in the last few decades, and by design to do so to benefit the 1%. And the middle/working-class are becoming impoverished, struggling to cover inflationary food, energy, housing, medical,  child care and education costs. And yes, sometimes they will drag their "sick asses to work" because they are laboring under crushing debt, most of them just trying to survive and provide for their loved ones. Actual purchasing power of the dollar is down to pennies (about 3 cents) while wages remain stagnant.

    Nearly a third (about 95 million) of all US adults are not in the workforce, but not included in the farcical unemployment calculation. Many of these people would like to work, but are unable to do so because of health conditions, disability, child or family caregiving responsibilities, lack of jobs/job skills, or other reasons.  Social Security, Disability, Unemployment, food stamps and other government subsidized income amounts are barely enough to live on. Yes there will be people who "game" the system, as there are in any system, but the vast majority are not. (Eligibility requirements are actually quite restrictive.)  So you've updated the myth of the welfare queen to be 2020 beneficiary of the earned income tax, cashing her "welfare" tax refund check, dressed to the nines with kids from multiple fathers in tow. Its still a myth.

    BillL, you might want to get out more and open your eyes, mind and heart. You might find the view is different than when looking down from your lofty, self-righteous perch.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:11am

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 302

    3+

    Hospital or check point

    From now on, when you leave your house, or decide to show up at a medical facility, are you and your household prepared to be swept into a quarantine situation?  It doesn't seem yet, that other than international travelers are being forced into a 2 week stay courtesy of the US Army.  And ankle bracelets are not yet put on those told to self quarantine at home.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:29am

    #97
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 664

    North Korea: official executed for breaking Covid quarantine; 30-day quarantine standard set

     

    Reports: Kim Jong-un executed North Korea official who used public bath while in coronavirus quarantine

    https://nationalpost.com/news/kim-jong-un-executes-north-korea-official-who-used-public-bath-while-in-coronavirus-quarantine-reports

    Coronavirus: South Korea's 28th patient casts doubt on 14-day quarantine

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-south-koreas-28th-patient-casts-doubt-on-14-day-quarantine

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:31am

    #98
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    2+

    Ethiopian Airlines refuses to end flights into China

    Africas largest airline, Ethiopian Airlines, is refusing to curtail flights into China despite pleas from President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya.

    All major African airlines have already suspended flights in line with the major Western and European Airlines but landlocked Ethiopia instead relies on the advice of the World Health organization (WHO) to keep trade and air corridors open.

    As reported on this site yesterday in a link (hospital beds per capita by country), Ethiopia has the lowest number of hospital beds per capita in the world with only .25 beds per 100,000 people.

    That country is possibly at the highest risk of any in the world due to its cultural way of burials of relatives. Normally the sick are attended by entire families both inside and outside hospitals. Deceased family members are returned to the home the day of the burial and family members prepare the body themselves.

    Transmission rates of Covid19 can therefore safely be assumed to run on the high side for co-infection. Furthermore, funerals and last goodbyes typically entail large social gatherings running for 40 days at which time every neighbor, friend, coworker and distant family member visit the family of the deceased to pay their respects.

    It is a recipe for disaster.

    https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/ethiopian-airlines-resists-pressure-cancel-flights-china

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:52am

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    6+

    d...and others...

    You won't catch me asking anyone's advice in a situation like this in an open forum.  I collect my own info from various sources and devise my own plan.  Much of it in my community because that is where I live, some from the web.

    I think/see things much differently than you or the others do.  Just bringing things to light that I have observed ( In the one month that I have been here)

    I am able to appreciate what is offered @ PP.  I am no stranger to the works presented here.  I have been living this life since 2004.  It is way of life for us, always will be and we also own/run 2 successful businesses.  I know exactly what is going on here.  It just seems odd to me that with all of the peak oil speak going on here that simply saying "that it's my job", or "I need a vaca" makes it ok to continue to travel all over Gods green earth.

    Wife and I actually talked about doing the PP deal in California a couple years ago.  Being that we grow nearly all of our own food (on a site that most would say impossible) I would love to tour the Singing Frogs Farm.  Love to go on a wine tour, hang out with like minded folks.  Just couldn't convince myself to travel into the Peoples Republic of California.  There were some items on my safety check list that my ocd couldn't cover...so we spent the money on a beautiful greenhouse that is an extremely tangible structure in our food production process and my wife loves it.

    Let me share a different point of view.  I'll ad that my only new years resolution was to throw out the pc bs.  So I will be direct.

    The practice of globalism has brought this all about.  Peace brother and all.

    Going to leave this Clif High take on the current coronavirus.  Clif is out there a bit but a very smart man...skip to about 21 minutes to cruise by Bitcoin Ben.  There are other Clif High vids out there, one I posted on another link here yesterday that was on Clif's channel.  www.youtube/watch?v=6PUYBd-zm3l

    The one yesterday was a must watch, he goes thru all the points a scientist would use to determine IF it is a weaponized virus...over a 3 year period.

     

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:57am

    BillL

    BillL

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    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    1+

    Clif high with Bitcoin ben

    sorry the link didn't work when I tested it, my computer skills aren't the best.

    www.youtube/watch?v=6PUYBd-zm31

    Try this...I thought the last item was l , let's try a 1

    That didn't work either...couldn't get it to come up.  Was sent to me by a friend.  maybe it's been scrubbed already.

    We all know that they don't scrub content from the web s/

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 11:05am

    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    5+

    WHO

     - Dilbert by Scott Adams

    Ethiopia: Tedros Adhanom’s Pay to Play at the AdWHO-ville, Geneva

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 11:29am

    Steve

    Steve

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 127

    1+

    Chaga Mushroom & Earplugs

    Anybody have information on the use of Chaga Mushroom in China to fight the virus?  Apparently must be Chaga mushroom that was grown on real Birch trees (firm fruiting bodies).

     

    Also, any substantiation to the rumor China has recommended ear plugs for protection from virus entry through the ear canal?

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 11:32am

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1941

    2+

    < IF > it started out as a bio weapon who was the target?

    If it wasn’t just pure research and they were working on a weapon that was accidentally released and they vaccinated their own people against it, then who was the intended target?
    Well if it turns out to be true that the Wuhu Flu disproportionately attacks Asians and Asian males, then that tells us something about the target.

    Sure would be a “nifty” communist solution for Taiwan, wouldn’t it? It would either thin out fighting age males they’d have to deal with in battle, or the goodwill generated after saving Taiwan with a new Communist vaccine might result in a non-kinetic “conquest.”

    For me, the biggest reason to think it wasn’t a fully ready bio weapon is that it isn’t lethal enough. So far, at least.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 11:44am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    1+

    WHO has lost its legitimacy

    Thanks Matties. It is truly shameful that a person of such low calibre as Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (an Ethiopian) would be the chair at the World Health Organization.

    Nobody is better informed than he about the extreme risk this Coronavirus poses to his home country of Ethiopia. It is unconscionable that he has convinced those who run its national airline that daily flights into China should continue in spite of our current knowledge about how contagious Covid19 is.

    I have signed the petition requesting his removal from the WHO and hope others will follow suit. That person has lost all legitimacy to lead. Nor only on the world stage but most specifically to Ethiopians who are possibly the world's most at-risk population.

    Call for the resignation of Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:15pm

    isjrb029

    isjrb029

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 16 2009

    Posts: 11

    1+

    We all have different way of thinking

    Sorry Sparky but I have to go with Bill on this one. If you do not understand his thoughts perhaps you should reread your responses. I do not say much but do observe a lot. I have have thought several times that you seem to be one of these people who project so much knowledge. We all have a right to comprehend things and many have differences in interpretations seems to me you are kind of slamming Bill here and kind of proving his point. My guess is you do not know Bill well enough to tell him to get out more or to open his eyes. I personally think you could use some introspect yourself.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:20pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 134

    US screening in 5 cities

    This is good news, as they might be able to now start finding some “cases in the wild” before more transmission.  Which 5 cities...they don’t say..

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-to-begin-testing-suspected-coronavirus-patients-in-5-cities_3237191.html

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:44pm

    gallantfarms

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 18 2009

    Posts: 52

    2+

    Tamiflu is a Big Fraud

    “The lawsuit claims the drugmaker’s scheme involved publishing misleading articles falsely stating that Tamiflu reduces complications, severity, hospitalizations, mortality and transmission of influenza.

    The company then used those articles to aggressively market the drug to the government for pandemic use. Relying on the supposed truthfulness of Roche’s claims, federal and state governments spent about $1.5 billion to stockpile Tamiflu to combat influenza pandemics.”

    It wasn’t until repeated requests from The BMJ were honored that data from unpublished trials were released to researchers, revealing the true extent of Tamiflu’s effectiveness — or lack thereof.

    In the BMJ review of Tamiflu it’s found that Tamiflu shortened the duration of flu symptoms by less than a day, specifically, by just 16.8 hours, and did not affect the number of hospitalizations.  In exchange for this very modest benefit, Tamiflu caused nausea and vomiting and increased the risk of headaches and renal and psychiatric syndromes.
    Serious side effects include convulsions, delirium or delusions and suicidal behavior.  Japan banned the use of Tamiflu in children and teens in 2007, after cases of teenagers trying to jump from apartment building windows while taking the drug.

    Read the full article:  https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/01/28/tamiflu-fraud-stole-billions.aspx

    On another note,  if China is spraying rodent-killing poison all over the place no wonder the people are vulnerable to a virus that attacks the lungs!

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 12:58pm

    Kgluong

    Kgluong

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 24

    Kgluong said:

    Lol Less death than sar lol.  Tell those people in wuhan.  They don't jave enough body bagd for their dead.  Current computer model is 18% or more.  It at least 3 time deadly than sar.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 1:16pm

    Alexis

    Alexis

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 66

    3+

    Fever temperature of note.

    I have noticed this several times in announcements and keep forgetting to mention...

    The WHO and CDC had previously stated (now the actual temperature seems to have disappeared from symptom lists) a "fever of 100.4." If you have ever worked medical, especially pediatric, a true "fever" for normal people is usually considered greater than 101F. A temperature of 100.4F is only used in the immune deficient, immune suppressed and newborn population. However, if you have a patient that is none of these things, however "looks" terrible (glassy eyes), elevated heart rate, elevated respiratory rate, low blood pressure, etc then you most certainly document the temperature and note they may be much more sick than the temperature indicates. HUGE red flag when I first saw that weeks ago and then after the lymphopenia phenomenon that seems to be happening in at least the ICU patients. I believe lymphocytes are tied to the TH1 reaction needed to mount an immune response... another thing to research in my free time. LOLOL

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 1:54pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    7+

    Sparky1

    Keep doing what you are doing and don’t take the insults and putdowns personally!  It is a stressful time and you provide valuable information that is helpful rather than hurtful.

    I too have gotten lambasted here in the past.

    There is nothing wrong with getting feedback from other members, thats what a lot of us do ......communicate. And there are always people who want to blame, guess it makes them feel superior.  A national trend I think.

    Keep up the good work!

    AKGrannyWGrit

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 2:29pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    Chaga

    Chaga is a fungus that grows on birch trees.  The Japanese call it “The Diamond of The Forest” and the Chinese call it “the King of All Herbs”.  I make a big pot of steeped Chaga water and mix it with my drinking water.
    Tinctures are great too.

    Attributed Benefits - to some degree

    Nutrient-dense superfood. Chaga mushrooms contain a wide variety of vitamins, minerals, and nutrients. ...
    Slowing the aging process. ...
    Lowering cholesterol. ...
    Preventing and fighting cancer. ...
    Lowering blood pressure. ...
    Supporting the immune system. ...
    Fighting inflammation. ...
    Lowering blood sugar.

    The indigenous peoples have used it for 1,000+ years.  It tastes a little earthy.

    I am looking at a bag from “Arctic Chaga”. Google it.

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 2:53pm

    MariaDWhite

    MariaDWhite

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 10 2020

    Posts: 8

    4+

    Update on Brighton UK

    Some more info has come out about people currently self-isolating in Brighton:

    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18232373.coronavirus-brighton-baby-becomes-youngest-suspected-case/

    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18231078.nurse-coronavirus-self-isolation-speaks-alleged-mismanagement/

    Some thoughts on all this:

    Clearly, COVID-19 may cause anything from very mild symptoms (cases have been reported of one or two days coughing and then feeling better) all the way to getting steadily worse till eventual death. It's also clear that people in poor health are far more likely to become serious cases. So the fact that two GPs were among the first infected is disastrous, because they were in contact with people that were already sick.

    The change in number of reported cases in China highlights something that had been said before, which is that there is a high number of false negatives in tests in China. We are told that the tests used in the UK are more reliable, but we have no clear idea of their reliability.

    From what's been reported, a false negative is more likely in a person that is asymptomatic and still in the incubation period. But we also know that some people have such mild symptoms that they are asymptomatic most, if not all, the time they are infected. And we have evidence that people can be infectious while asymptomatic.

    Put all of this together and you have to ask: Does this mean that contact tracing may not always work, even if you manage to trace the contacts correctly? Think of the case of the nurse. She was in contact with a potential case. Let's imagine this potential case has COVID-19 but develops only very mild symptoms. It looks at least possible that the test results come back negative for this person, even having the virus. So the nurse would be told that she can't have COVID-19 because her contact came back negative. Because she suffers from low immunity, if she is in fact infected she's likely to develop into a serious case and need to be hospitalized. At that point she'd be in contact with many healthcare workers. So the question is: Are the health authorities going to be cautious and treat her like a suspected case? Or would they compound their mistakes?

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 3:13pm

    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1+

    Rumor : 100K dead in China

    曾錚 Jennifer Zeng
    @jenniferatntd
    ·

    5h

    Rumor: US intelligence community say the death toll in China is over 100k 且当谣言听听:美国情报界认为中国死于 #武汉肺炎 的已过10万。#COVID2019 #Coronavirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #coronaviruschina #武漢肺炎 #新冠肺炎 #新冠病毒

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 3:20pm

    Ejh237

    Ejh237

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 16 2011

    Posts: 33

    OMG! That's terrible.

    How could you even type that?

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 3:47pm

    LeftCoaster

    LeftCoaster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 17

    6+

    Lack of precaution prep at Dentist office

    Sparky, I had exactly the same thing happen tome on Wednesday. I went to a new dental office, to have a repair. It was extremely large, with many individual treatment rooms (maybe 25), with 10 dentists working in the practice. The front desk alone, had about 12-15 employees, and this did not include assistants or hygienists. There could easily be 50-660 employees here.

    While I was waiting to get numbed up, I casually asked the dentist, if he has been following the corona virus updates. He said, "Just what I hear on the news", to which I replied, then you haven't really heard anything.  Since I am an RN, with over 40 years of practice, in 5 specialities, I have no qualms speaking frankly, with medical personal. I told him 4-5 basic important facts, to get his attention (r/o, % of mild, critical, ICU/needing vents & deaths per # infected (CRV), and he was very surprised. I told him to check out Chris's you tube video and about PP's site.  I then told him someone in his office needs to take charge of finding out what precautions they would need to put into place & then have an inservice with all staff, since they are on the front line, IMO.  He agreed & I left.  I hope to God he takes my words to heart.

    I had a similar experience at an ENT office 10 days ago. Mind you, this guy works at a very prominent Medical/hospital compound, in a major city, and he does surgeries every week. He knew NOTHING about it. Zip. Since I did not know as much myself about this 10 days ago, I just told him to get N95 masks asap, while they they were still available.

    I really do not think the medical community is prepared for this, at all. I am trying to catch up on any needed visits in the next week or so and then just hunker down,, until we hear more info.

    Thank God for this site & all the knowledgeable info members provide, as well as the work of Chris & Adam. You guys are doing a fantastic job!

    Best of luck to all of us.

     

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 3:50pm

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 4302

    1+

    Latest: 65,246 infected, 1,487 dead

    Just announced. These numbers will be updated higher over the next few hours (as they are each day)

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 4:34pm

    Lnorris

    Lnorris

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 28 2011

    Posts: 86

    5+

    I spoke to one of the cashiers at work

    and asked discreetly if she had considered wearing gloves since she handles cash and credit cards. Her answer just made my stomach drop. “We’re not allowed to. We can only use this,” and held up a bottle of purell. I can tell you being in the frontline of patient care very little is being disseminated down to our level. I guess the attitude is wait, watch and react. Have done what I can to prepare the home front and let some close friends know in small doses what’s happening. People want to see and hear what they want to. Be well and be safe.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:03pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1018

    1+

    AKGrannyWGrit said:

    On another note,  if China is spraying rodent-killing poison all over the place no wonder the people are vulnerable to a virus that attacks the lungs!

    Sooo, perhaps a question for Chris and Adam. Can the virus be spread to rats, mice, domestic animals AND mosquitoes?  This virus came from Pandoras box I think.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:06pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    Social breakdown

    I will admit some of the videos being posted out of China lately are chilling. So much violence and fear. I know people here have also seen them so I won't repost them but this has shades of panic and social breakdown written large. What in hell have they really released over there......hell itself?

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:06pm

    Rajkumarijay

    Rajkumarijay

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 08 2020

    Posts: 50

    3+

    Hospital beds per country

    I am not at all surprised by the low number of beds per capital in the US. Based on the way the insurance companies push to send people home, (too early in many many cases), the hospitals have not really needed or been able to afford having loads of hospital beds. This is going to overwhelm so many hospitals especially given the number of medical staff vacancies most hospitals are dealing with. It is a real worry...

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:06pm

    Yoxa

    Yoxa

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 308

    3+

    PP's newest video - Is The Coronavirus Now Unstoppable?

    The newest video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01L-SktgzXc

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:07pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 134

    1+

    $375 credit for each person to combat Coronavirus economic impact

    Intersting - Macau will be distributing “credit” cards loaded with 3000 patacas ($375usd) to each resident to boost spending....

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3050557/coronavirus-macau-will-give-residents-22-billion-patacas

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:37pm

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3132

    Watching Japan

    Country,
    Territory

    Total Cases
    Change
    (cases)
    Total
    Deaths
    Change
    (deaths)
    Total
    Recovered
    Serious,
    Critical

    China
    64,658
    +4,854
    1,488
    +123
    6,981
    10,584

    Japan
    252
    +50
    1
    +1
    10
    5

    Singapore
    58
    +8

    15
    8

    Hong Kong
    53
    +3
    1

    1

    Scroll down

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:47pm

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    1+

    Chaga...

    Thank you for that info Granny.  In the Clif High/Bitcoin Ben youtube video that I linked above, Clif talks about the Chaga/birch tree correlation.  We tend to assume a more naturopathic approach to healing.

    I am going to post the link again as the first one that I posted was correct.  I am able to link to it with no problem.   www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUYBd-zm3l   skip the first 21 minutes or not...Ben is a bit amusing.

    I'll post the other here from yesterday if anyone is interested.  Very scientific approach.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLHnuxqeTWg

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:54pm

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    japan numbers obscured by the ship

    Hey Deso, I know it's kind of hard to follow Japan right? Here is a tracker I look at that separates the ship from Japan.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 5:57pm

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 184

    How much longer until China goes back to work??

    I'm predicting that the Chinese Gov will at some point throw in the towel on containment and send everyone they can to work. If the virus doesnt burn itself out there's only so long they can keep everyone on lockdown mode.  They aren't going to obliterate their economy for the sake of the old, weak and infirm. I would imagine their will be many no shows but the show must go on. This virus doesn't have a 10-20 percent kill rate which would render the situation mad max. We have more than enough data (cases outside of China) to know that the vast majority have mild symptoms.  There is simply no way in hell they can turn the entire country into Wuhan. Whoever gets sick will go to their quarantine stations, i.e. football stadium turned into a center where people go to get better or die.

    Just my two cents

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:00pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 412

    Stranded during travels

    Id also make sure you health insurance has medivac

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:12pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 134

    CDC messaging turning a corner here?

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:15pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    2+

    Bit of Stranded Humor

    Speaking of stranded, I believe it was one of the people who is currently on a cruise ship that is being denied a port of landing who joked, something like, "Imagine if the virus killed everyone on the planet EXCEPT the people stuck on a cruise ship, and they were left to repopulate the World?"

    Though I think she also said that the average age of passengers on her ship was near 60.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:37pm

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 113

    Hubei deaths....reason

    Purely speculation here, but my money is on the number of cases in Hubei being MASSIVELY larger than reported. As the epicenter of virus origin, the spread was likely able to pass unnoticed for weeks or months. With the latest Los Alamos No number we now know it could have lit like wildfire. My guess is it did.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 6:40pm

    Rajkumarijay

    Rajkumarijay

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    Joined: Feb 08 2020

    Posts: 50

    4+

    Why aren’t more people worried about Covid-19 coming here?

    I work with a wide variety of people. Some well-educated and worldly. Others insular, uneducated and locally-oriented. I ask coworkers, “so, what do you think of this new coronavirus?” Everyone knows about it in varying degrees. Everyone feels bad for what the Chinese are going through. No one is concerned about it affecting them. No one. Did I say, “no one?” I am the only one who seems to have these concerns. I am preparing. Why isn’t anyone else? Have I been reading too much science fiction?

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:22pm

    ao

    ao

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    chaga and level of writing

    Chaga is great stuff.  We've been harvesting it and using it for about a decade now.  I wouldn't count on it though if my life was in the balance.  It's not readily standardizable and response to it seems to be unique to the individual rather than fairly uniform across a broader population.  A more standardized immune system boosting mushroom product is AHCC but again, it's not something I'd trust with my life.

    Just an observation here.  The level of written communication on this site seems to have dropped a notch since the whole corona virus discourse started.  Spelling, punctuation, grammar, syntax, signal-to-noise ratio, etc. seem to have slipped.  Let's try to rectify that and up our game and pay a little closer attention to what we're writing and how we're writing it.  It just reflects better on the site and its participants.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:33pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

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    2+

    Avoid Public Meals? Infected Food?

    Saw this in the comments to the latest video. Interesting:

    "Took a last minute flight back to Singapore to call of duty as a Risk Assessor and Safety & Healh Auditor to help fight Coronavirus/COVID-19 too. Had many Risk Assessment discussions, one with leaders/participants from Hospitality, Tourism, Events, F&B, education institutions and other industries.

    One of the areas we assessed is why there are many reported infections in Leisure Cruises and hotel business networking event but when many infected persons fly on airplanes on evacuation flights, no airline staff or people on the same airplane get infected.

    One of the preliminary findings is that Luxury Cruises and Hotel networking events have one thing in common: buffet. In a normal buffet when people socialise and talk while taking food, invisible and visible droplets of saliva can travel onto food and when an uninfected person consumes it, the virus can be transmitted easily (buffet food can be left out there for up to 4 hours and you never know how many people had talked over the food prior).

    Thus, possible control measures include discouraging people from talking over buffet/displayed food or have some form of barriers for droplets/saliva over the food and dedicated healthy masked servers to dish out food instead of common-use serving cutlery. The same goes for communal food events in chalets or after an event.

    On the contrary, on the plane everyone eats out of their own trays not facing someone else, with less talking and eating at the same time. That could be the reason why there are no reported infection on plane despite long hours of being with infected persons in a confined environment. Thus, without transmission through saliva/droplets to someone else's mouth/nose/eye, it's difficult to be infected by just being on the same flight or being in the same building with an infected person. At the moment, the probability of aerosol transmission is probably low. Currently temperature taking is a good measure but there are loopholes such as infection before symptoms like fever.

    Based on Risk Management, we should focus on activities that have higher probability of transmission (talking over food), not just being on location, as it's difficult to detect. Hopefully by focusing on the right control measures and some change of our lifestyles/habits in such times, it can help in saving lives. The findings are not conclusive as Risk Assessment is still in progress depending on new data or discovery.

    I suggest we look at our routine/non routine activities and conduct our own Risk Assessment too based on probability and severity and come up with own control measures. Thanks to many who are fighting this battle too. Pray for Singapore, Australia, China, Malaysia and many countries affected by COVID-19."

    DarkPa1adin

    ---

    Makes me wonder, can you get this virus by eating it? I wouldn't think you could. It would have to survive the stomach acids and then get into your body from there. Maybe its ending up in your throat lining and then transmitting into your lungs. The way it kills seems to be causing deep lung trauma, inflammation and pneumonia.

    Opinions from more medically informed people please.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 7:51pm

    wyrldtraveler

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    re: can you get this virus by eating it?

    If it is easily aerosolized, one could inhale it in the steam wafting up from the food and it then can enter the respiratory tract.

    Additionally, the mouth is also an airway, so one could inhale droplets that were clinging to the saliva in the mouth/oropharynx  after one swallowed the food.

    The latter is theoretically possible, but unlikely in my opinion.

    We have no data if it can enter via the digestive tract via the mucosal lining leading to the stomach.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:00pm

    Tycer

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    1+

    Always class.

    Nice to see you ao. Always class. Fare well friend.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:09pm

    dtrammel

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    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    What Temperature is Buffet Food/Water Kept At? Growth Medium?

    Thanks for the comment wryldtraveler.

    My thought was its more likely that the close person spacing and conversations going on while they get the food had a higher correlation to infection. Most buffets have those aggravating plastic shields that make it difficult to actually get food without bending over and reaching.

    There is the possibility of contaminated serving utensils though.

    I wonder if the servers and cooks could infect the food during preparation. What temperature would a wet protein rich medium be best to grow this stuff in, considering the food would be sitting there for many minutes. The steam heating table as well. Big pool of warm water. I doubt its getting dried out and disinfected at the end of each meal either.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:34pm

    kunga

    kunga

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    Stranded humor

    I read a similar story about a guy named Noah who was 600 years old at the time 🐱🐱

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:47pm

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Posts: 77

    Montana dude

    Looks like we might have a case in Bozeman, they wheeled a guy into the hospital after a trip to China.  They're supposed to have the testing done by now. Have you heard any update on that?

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:50pm

    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1242

    nice to hear from you too, Tycer

    Hope all is well with you.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 8:59pm

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    re: Temperature is Buffet Food/Water Kept At? Growth Medium?

    Food safety standards require the food to be served and maintained at specific temperatures to prevent bacterial growth (above a certain threshold - there's always the stuff that even Kryptonite won't affect, but it's insignificant).  These standards are generally the same and observed globally.  Not running a steam table, I can't quote specific temperatures, but I will say that they should at least be cleaning the non-food equipment regularly if not sterilizing it to a surgical standard.  The trays are normally cleaned between servings.

    These are multi-million dollar firms making good money.  They are aware of the liability if they do something wrong (in house legal team, insurer, risk management team) and at try to avoid opportunistic lawsuits.

    Having dealt with the local health ministry regarding such practices in an operating restaurant, I will say that it's generally not an issue with healthy staff, a well-ventilated workspace and (generally) healthy patrons.  Temperatures of refrigerators (and steam tables) are recorded and tracked (often for years).  My understanding is that the cruise industry conforms to the HACCP standard as well as the health codes of the country under which flag it is sailing.  (Family member works on ships, get lots of questions regarding ships and law since I have Internet and they are on a satellite connection.)

    Cruise ships are also inspected.  The fines are sometimes substantial for violations; more for recidivism.  They're also audited by their insurer and industry association(s).

    Where you run into problems is when you have potentially ill staff, potentially ill patrons, zero clear guidelines for operating in these new conditions (can't re-engineer the kitchen during operations) and you can't replace sick staff who are hospitalized (discouraging reporting of sick employees who do not wish to be disloyal to their teammates or their employer upon whom their extended families depend on to eat in the home country!)  Additionally, you may be running low on necessary supplies/equipment  for disinfection and 'stretching' what you have given the unusual circumstances.

    There's an operations manual chapter for what to do if the ship is hijacked (has happened several times in the past few decades), but not if a global pandemic erupts (has not happened for at least a century) if I had to guess.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 9:25pm

    ao

    ao

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    Posts: 1242

    buffets, design, carelessness, and travel

    Here's one thing that happens with the buffets.  Inevitably, the handle of the serving implements winds up, sooner or later, accidentally touching the food.  I complained to Princess about it in a letter since they could design implements and food stations so it wouldn't happen with such regularity.  I received a "lip service" type letter in response but noticed during a cruise the following year that the implements had longer handles although they still weren't designed optimally.  Plus, people are careless.  They reach under the protective clear plastic covers and accidentally touch food with their hands in the process, they drop the handles in the food, they wash their hands in a perfunctory manner, they don't use the hand sanitizer provided, they cough and sneeze and hack, etc.  Plus, some ships are more strict about enforcing sanitation regulations than others and, in general, the level of enforcement discipline tends to decline as the cruise progresses.

    I just thank God that both my wife and I felt that something didn't feel quite right and cancelled a 32 day Asian cruise we had scheduled for May well before the corona virus became a news item.  That being said, I still love cruises and travel.  Travel expands your horizons as a human being and makes you realize that no matter where you are on the planet and who you meet, we all share a common heritage.  For example, the impression I got from Russia and the Russian people was much different than the impression I had growing up during the Cold War of a supposedly evil country and people.  Governments can certainly be evil but I've found that most people are pretty decent, especially one-on-one.  Not only is it enjoyable and enrichening to visit other countries and experience their culture, cuisine, and countrymen but the people you meet on the ship, both passengers and crew, are another bonus.  We've met people from all over the world, made friends with a number of them, and learn things from them that you'd never learn any other way except from meeting them personally.  Travel tends to be a great unifier of people and its absence will tend to have the opposite effect at a time when unity is needed more than ever.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:14pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 664

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    Reply to BillL and isjrb029: An apology and clarification

    isjrb029, You are right:  I "do not know Bill well enough to tell him to get out more or to open his eyes." And honestly, I really can't know whether he was having a crappy day today, or if he has a dismal view of people. Confession: I'm not clairvoyant! I'm reminded that there's not a lot we can really "know" about anybody in an on-line, virtual environment. So I apologize: that was presumptuous of me. I'll try to keep that in check.

    You and BillL make a good point in that people have different ways of thinking.  I agree! For the most part, that makes for interesting and expansive discussion for those posting on PP. This place would be pretty boring otherwise.

    So, to the part about me being "one of these people who project so much knowledge," in reference to BillL's comment about "people here on this blog act like they are super informed and ahead of the curve."

    For the record, I'm not trying to project that I have so much knowledge or that I'm super-informed. Professionally, I'm a researcher and grant writer, so maybe my writing style and content are not to your liking. Sometimes, I do share my opinion and analysis--based on documentable research or personal experience--just like many, many other PP members do. (Maybe I should label it as "opinion" so there's no confusion.) More often, I'm sharing links and sourced excerpts to articles, studies and videos that I think are of interest to the PP community.  And lately I've tried to welcome the many new PP members and help them find their way around the site, just as others helped me when I first joined PP three years ago. I try to do my part to participate and contribute to this vibrant PP community that I learn so much from.

    As an aside, I've been recuperating from a serious illness for the past few months, which has allowed me to do more research and interact with others here. It also just happened to coincide with the coronavirus outbreak. I'm definitely on the mend, so hopefully I can still make time for PP as I get back to "normal" life (whatever that is!) 🙂

    Thanks for the feedback, folks.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:24pm

    dtrammel

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    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 777

    Routes of Infection Discussion in Separate Thread

    So as not to clutter up the discussion of this video, I've started a discussion of Routes Of Infection By Severity in the previous video thread of "Coronavirus: What We Can Say Publicly & What We Can’t" where we have been have some continuing talk on preparations, sanitation and PPE.

    Please join the discussion there too.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:35pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    2+

    Thanks, AKGranny!

    Thanks for your very timely and thoughtful words of encouragement, Granny. You've definitely proved your "Grit" here more than a few times, so I really respect and appreciate your advice. Live and learn, right? 

    It was also nice to see the "thumbs-ups" on your post from others.  🙂

    All the best,

    Sparky1

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:51pm

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Posts: 288

    This is China's Chernobyl?.....Really?

    When I recall Chernobyl it is with the memories of Russian incompetence and a sequence of errors that led to that very unfortunate disaster.

    What followed though was an incredible sight of hundreds of workers selflessly struggling to encapsulate the damaged area with concrete and knowing full well their efforts might be rewarded with personal death sentence from radiation poisoning.

    They were heroic.

    But this tragedy in China is nothing like that. Everyone is suspicious. There are no good guys and there are no heroes. Just a lot of innocent victims locked inside their homes or incinerated in secret.

    If this is China's Chernobyl then why is everyone talking like they did about the mystery collapse of Building 7?

    This is another 9-11

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 10:53pm

    Mr Curious

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    Why aren’t more people worried

    Hey Raj, the human brain isn't really wired that way. We're more worried about day to day hassles and confrontations than a hypothetical future scenario. Maybe this will turn out like Stephen King's 'The Stand', but we don't really know 100%, at least not like standing on the firing line looking at the rifle. Until then try to enjoy each day as much as possible and try to get to know your neighbor.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 11:14pm

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Posts: 77

    The institution of science is failing us as well

    I think there's some frustration out there and everyone's just trying to figure this out. I'm sure you write good grants and I wish you luck but it's also becoming more apparent that approximately 50% of the scientific literature currently borders on incomprehensible gobblydegook and is very often not reproducible. A lot of the data we're trying to latch onto right now comes from non peer-reviewed sources and much of it is getting retracted or refuted. There's alot of people (not necessarily on PP) that use science to clobber the regular guy over the head with. You see this in the climate change discussions where it's often stated "the science is settled, you deplorable dummy". Not it's not, otherwise over 3,000 scientific papers wouldn't have been written on it last year. Maybe the topic of gravity is more settled, and consequently we don't have to write thousands of research papers on the topic anymore trying to explain it.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:20am

    Yoxa

    Yoxa

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    Peer Review - explained by Mark Cochrane

    Mr. Curious said:

    [quote] A lot of the data we’re trying to latch onto right now comes from non peer-reviewed sources and much of it is getting retracted or refuted.[/quote]

    That's bound to happen. In the heat of crisis people are rushing to share what they think they've learned but skipping formal peer review. In effect the whole world becomes their reviewers, and things will get revised or retracted in public view rather than in the quiet halls of academia.

    Here are a couple of old posts by Mark Cochrane in the climate thread which I found helpful at the time, explaining the peer review process. Note especially what he has to say about the difference between "telling stories" vs "doing science". Worth a read, and might explain some craziness!

    The Definitive Global Climate Change (aka Global Warming) Thread — General Discussion and Questions

    The Definitive Global Climate Change (aka Global Warming) Thread — General Discussion and Questions

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:43am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    BillL, correcting misinformation re: EITC

    BillL, you said, "Bank tellers “our age” hate this time of year at my bank. It is when single (no job) mothers dressed to the nine’s drag their 3-5 kids (to several men) in to cash their, “earned income tax credit” checks. Checks vary for $5-12K per mom."

    The anecdote you provided above is misleading and patently incorrect based on IRS tax guidelines for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). The credit is only available for working people with earned income/AGI of $55,052 or less during 2019 (depending on filing status and number of qualifying children). The maximum credit is $6,557 for workers with three or more qualifying children. The average EITC last year (2018 tax year) was $2,504.

    See below for correct information summarized from the IRS (bold added. Source:  https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/how-to-qualify-for-the-earned-income-tax-credit)

    The EITC is a benefit for working people with low to moderate earned income from working for someone or from running or owning a business or farm and meet basic rules. Taxpayers must also meet additional rules for workers without a qualifying child or have a child that meets all four the qualifying child rules (i.e, relationship, age, residency, joint return). Tax year investment income must be $3,600 or less for the year. Social Security numbers are required for the taxpayers and any qualifying children.

    The amount of EITC varies based on income, filing status and family size. Those who qualify can get a credit up to:

    $529 with no qualifying children
    $3,526 with one qualifying child
    $5,828 with two qualifying children
    $6,557 with three or more qualifying children
    Last year, the average amount of EITC was $2,504.

    Earned and Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) Limits (2019 Tax Year):

    Single, Head of Household, or Widowed (Qualifying Child/Children)
    $15,570 (0 children)
    $41,094 (1 child)
    $46,703 (2 children)
    $50,162 (3 or more children)

    Married Filing Jointly (Qualifying Child/Children)
    $21,370 (0 children)
    $46,884 (1 child)
    $52,493 (2 children)
    $55,952 (3 or more children)

    (Source)

    Maybe you or someone you know might find this information helpful.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 12:43am

    Snow Eater

    Snow Eater

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    "Flu" outbreak in St. Louis prison

    Two prisons in Illinois are on lock-down, no visits or phone calls allowed. Inmates not allowed to leave their cells. No information being given to families. Could it be what it sounds like? How could it get in there?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=316IR-HwLdY&feature=youtu.be

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 2:47am

    Doug

    Doug

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    Posts: 1390

    Peer review

    It's a good idea to review what is meant by peer review.  It Isn't we'll understood.  However, you links just take me to the beginning of the climate change thread.  There are thousands of posts on that thread.  If you know the specific posts, that would be helpful.

    Thanx

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 5:28am

    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    peer review

    There's a lot to talk/complain about with the peer review process. maybe not best for this thread. In short though, the body of literature is becoming too big for the human brain to rationally absorb and a disturbingly high percentage of it is  garbage. Even 'good' journals are not immune. Like other institutions in our society, we as scientists are at risk for a loss of confidence. I only brought this up because we've got to really do some critical thinking of the research that comes out right now. We're openly stating that we should be critical of the media right now (see titles on recent topics) and rightly so, but in my opinion we've got analagous issues in science.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:03am

    BillL

    BillL

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    Back to work in China...

    Spot on George.  Mao didn't care about starving a bunch of his people, why would Xi care about a bunch of his?

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 6:36am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3132

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    *****Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier****

     

     

     

     

    About 1,716 medical workers have been infected by the coronavirus nationwide as of February 11, six of them have lost their lives. The Chinese State Council Information Office outlined extra measures to better protect health workers.

    ======================================
    Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier
    According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

     

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:01am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3132

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    Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows

    Massive stimulus of NT$60 billion in works for Taiwan post-coronavirus
    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3875879

    ===============================
    U.S. Borrows for 30 Years at a Lower Cost Than Ever Before
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-poised-lowest-rate-ever-155052521.html

    =======================
    Germany's economy has flatlined. The coronavirus could push it into recession
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/14/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

    ===============================
    Singapore PM says recession possible due to coronavirus outbreak
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-economy/singapore-pm-says-recession-possible-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak-straits-times-idUSKBN2080MM

    ==============================
    'Coughing Like I Was Going to Die.' Here’s What It’s Like to Survive Coronavirus in Wuhan
    The first four days of the illness were brutal. “I suffered from a high fever and pains that tortured every part of my body,” said Ye. He spent the days watching Japanese cartoons to distract from the discomfort.

    By the time his follow-up appointment at the hospital arrived four days later, the Wuhan government had locked down the city, barring anyone from leaving to stop the virus’ spread. Everything changed in an instant: roads were empty, prices for fresh fruit and vegetables surged, and residents were unsure if they were even allowed to leave their apartments.

    https://time.com/5783838/coronavirus-symptoms-wuhan-survivor/

    ==============================
    Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows
    So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization who tracked studies of the virus’s transmissibility in China. His estimate implies that there could eventually be billions more infections than the current official tally of about 60,000.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/coronavirus-could-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:03am

    BillL

    BillL

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    Posts: 115

    Sparky1...

    It is ok for us to "agree to disagree."  Sorry to hear that your battling something.  It happens to all of us...none of us are iron plated all the time.

    Frankly, I like the interviews here.  As I said, I have my own plan.  Additional ideas are appreciated and I may or may not implement them.

    I will tell you that them main reason that I go to any blog is for the commenters.  I want to hear what real people like me have to say.  Most times, I scan the headline and head directly for the comments.  We can all read whatever we want on the web.  There is a source for everything there.  True or not?  One can only judge for themselves.

    Best wishes getting better.

     

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:21am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Posts: 67

    Peer Review

    The scientific method is born out of alchemy. The original use was to apply the scientific method to the entire body of knowledge referred to as "magic".

    Any phenomenon that could be reproduced was considered valid. Everything else was considered sorcery.

    The complaint regarding the sheer volume published papers, of which many are considered garbage, appear to fall under the latter category of Sorcery. The original alchemists were not under pressure to "publish or perish", but to produce actual reproducible results.

    We can see this in the discussion about a racial preference for the virus: only one data point in the peer-reviewed study was Asian and that study had only eight participants.  How can this be considered significant?  It could be an aberration or one-off genetic fluke.  The study reveals nothing.  We are forced to put our faith in the scientific priesthood to protect us from Evil.

    Mainstream science may have been turned into a religion, the possibility which we must confront, however uncomfortable.

    It is for this reason that some people continue to reference studies which have not been peer-reviewed. Are they heretics, or are they right?

    It is historical record that the Roman Catholic Church seized the Roman Empire.  Politics and religion are intermingled throughout human history.  Are current events indicating that we are at another such turning point in history?  We much each decide for ourselves.

     

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:26am

    yagasjai

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    Condo Living with Row of Heat Pumps

    I am currently living in an Energy Star condo complex and wasn't super concerned about contagion within the building because each unit has it's own heat pump, as far as I'm aware, the air is not ever shared between units. However, recent reports of the possibility of it spreading by aerosol have me more concerned, because all of the heat pumps for the whole building are in one long row outside. The exhaust from one blows right into the next. This never made much sense to me even in terms of heating and cooling, because in the summer, it's not much help to have the heat from one blow right into the next. But that's how it's set up. So I'm wondering whether anyone else is in a similar situation? Are there filters that can be installed? I know that regular furnaces have HEPA filters that can be installed to filter the air flowing through the system. I don't see where on this system one could install a filter and haven't ever heard of such a thing for heat pumps. Any info on this would be very much appreciated.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:27am

    Yoxa

    Yoxa

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    Joined: Dec 20 2011

    Posts: 308

    Botched links re peer review

    To Doug, Mr. Curious and others.

    I did post the links to the exact posts of Mark's that I wanted to share (that's why there were two links), but it seems the forums software truncated them.

    I will try figure it out and re-post later, hopefully tonight.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:41am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3132

    2+

    Japan's policymakers brace for fourth-quarter GDP slump, growing coronavirus risks

    Coronavirus Wuhan diary: 'He got a hospital bed three hours before he died'
    Huang's grandparents started to have respiratory symptoms on 20 January. They couldn't go to a hospital until 26 January as it was difficult for them to get around after Wuhan was put into effective lockdown on 23 January, with public transport suspended.

    They were diagnosed with the novel coronavirus on 29 January, but were only admitted to a hospital three days later.

    But the hospital was so full that there were no empty beds. His grandparents had high fever and difficulty breathing, but were only offered seats in the corridor. He begged the hospital staff and he managed to get a long chair and a folding bed.

    "There's no doctor or nurse in sight," Huang wrote in his diary, "Hospital without doctors is just like a graveyard."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51440129

    ========================
    Dentists threatened by coronavirus face-mask shortage
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51493492

    ===========================
    ‘It’s a better gift than wine now:’ Coronavirus makes toilet paper a hot new currency
    As fears of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) spread across the region, pharmacies and supermarkets in Hong Kong and Singapore are running out of basic supplies like toilet paper, paper towels, hand sanitizer and especially masks.

    https://fortune.com/2020/02/14/coronavirus-toilet-paper/

    =========================
    A cruise industry crisis: No one wants to be stuck on the next coronavirus-hit ship
    https://fortune.com/2020/02/13/cruise-industry-coronavirus/

    ====================
    InsureMyTrip Reports High Demand For Cancel For Any Reason Coverage Since Coronavirus Outbreak
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/insuremytrip-reports-high-demand-cancel-211500667.html

    =====================
    Royal Caribbean Cancels 18 Cruises Due to Virus, Crimping Profit
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/royal-caribbean-cancels-18-cruises-due-to-virus-crimping-profit

    ======================
    Coronavirus: Universities cancel in-class mid-term exams, shift to online learning (Singapore)
    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/education/coronavirus-universities-cancel-in-class-mid-term-exams-make-shift-to-online

    ================================
    Mitsubishi Motors delays factory restart in China on coronavirus
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-mitsubishimotors/mitsubishi-motors-delays-factory-restart-in-china-on-coronavirus-idUSKBN208161

    =========================

    5G rollout in India may face potential delay due to Coronavirus

    https://www.indiatoday.in/technology/news/story/5g-rollout-in-india-may-face-potential-delay-due-to-coronavirus-1646430-2020-02-14

    =========================
    Publishers warn of possible book delays due to coronavirus (Australia)
    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/books/publishers-warn-of-possible-book-delays-due-to-coronavirus-20200214-p540zu.html

    ========================
    Battery Market Faces Supply Crunch as Coronavirus Slows Output of China’s Factories

    China’s leading battery producers, led by BYD and CATL, face high risk of additional production delays, WoodMac says.

    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coronavirus-global-battery-cell-supply-china

    ==================
    NVIDIA cuts its outlook by $100 million due to 2019 coronavirus
    https://www.engadget.com/2020/02/13/nvidia-cuts-outlook-coronavirus/

    ==========================
    JCB cuts production because of coronavirus
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51486719

    =========================
    Coronavirus is ruining the wedding industry: bridal boutique owner
    https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-is-ruining-the-wedding-industry-bridal-boutique-owner/

    ===================
    The coronavirus outbreak has made ‘buy high and sell higher’ a winning playbook, Jim Cramer says
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/jim-cramer-coronavirus-has-broken-the-buy-low-sell-high-rule.html

    =========================
    China titanium producer Pangang shuts unit as coronavirus cases found
    Pangang Group Vanadium Titanium and Resources, which produces around 220,000 tonnes per year of titanium dioxide - used as white pigment in paints, paper, plastics and textiles - subsequently put the facility in Chongqing’s Banan district under lockdown, the Banan official said.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-titanium/china-titanium-producer-pangang-shuts-unit-as-coronavirus-cases-found-idUSKBN20819K

    ============================
    Japan's policymakers brace for fourth-quarter GDP slump, growing coronavirus risks
    https://whbl.com/news/articles/2020/feb/14/bank-of-japan-official-warns-of-coronavirus-impact-on-japans-economy/984977/

    ==========================
    Coronavirus: Macau will give residents 2.2 billion patacas worth of vouchers to boost economy once outbreak is over
    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3050557/coronavirus-macau-will-give-residents-22-billion-patacas

     

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 7:58am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3132

    1+

    Chinatown search link

    Hong Kong International Schools Say They May Not Survive Health Crisis

    Hong Kong’s international schools are bracing for an exodus of families from the city, with some warning they may have to shut for good after the government suspended classes to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

    =================

    A crematorium sent a car to pick up Xiangyou's body, but the family was told no mourning ceremony would be allowed. They could only collect his ashes after 15 days.
    Dying a desperate death: A Wuhan family's coronavirus ordeal
    Two days before Xiangyou died, doctors at the 4th Hospital of Wuhan had written in a diagnosis that both brothers were likely infected by the coronavirus which has now killed over 1,350 people in China. CT scans showed their lungs had turned "white" with patterns resembling cracked glass, symptomatic of severe viral infections.

    https://kfgo.com/news/articles/2020/feb/14/dying-a-desperate-death-a-wuhan-familys-coronavirus-ordeal/985033/?refer-section=national

    =====================
    Fixed-income fund flows rise as investors fear coronavirus impact
    Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
    https://www.ft.com/content/491cbdbe-4ec0-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5

    Goldman Sachs analysts said the outbreak of the virus, which has now claimed more than 1,100 lives and infected at least 44,000 people, could shave an annualised 2 per cent from global gross domestic product growth in the first quarter, driven by “weaker growth in China, lower Chinese tourist spending, and lower Chinese goods imports”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/491cbdbe-4ec0-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5

    ==========================

    Chinatown search link

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 8:30am

    Craig1961

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 11 2018

    Posts: 5

    2+

    Heat Pumps

    yagasjai,

    With a standard heat pump there is no inside/outside air exchange. It's a closed loop system with coolant that flows between the evaporator and condenser units. The airflow you see outside is just from the fan that blows outside air thru the coils. The following link shows a diagram.

    https://inspectapedia.com/aircond/1278s.jpg

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 11:53am

    LeftCoaster

    LeftCoaster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 17

    #48 Links to twitter videos

    Dear Matties,

    Thank you for posting these twitter links. Some of footage is absolutely unbelievable & totally heartbreaking. I cannot believe they are shooting people in broad daylight.  have no words.

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  • Fri, Feb 14, 2020 - 9:33pm

    yagasjai

    yagasjai

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 18 2009

    Posts: 95

    Thanks Craig1961

    Glad to know that!

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  • Sat, Feb 15, 2020 - 12:07am

    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 288

    So its smokers who face the biggest risk?

    All the medical discussion and acronyms in today's video from Chris really made my head swim. Is the short answer to just quit smoking? Or is it already too late because the damage is already done? Anybody?

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 10:53am

    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 67

    1+

    smoking

    Any reason is a good reason to quit smoking, if you actually follow through and quit.  Tobacco is not the healthiest of plants to smoke, but all of the chemicals added to commercial products make it even worse.

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