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    The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Accelerating Worldwide

    The virus is suddenly erupting in numerous countries & continents
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, February 21, 2020, 8:27 PM

Outside of the lockdown within China, covid-19 cases are accelerating across the globe.

The virus has truly jumped the defense line.

It’s now a true pandemic, with countries all over the world reporting huge percent increases in the number of infected cases.

We already know it has reached epidemic status in Japan and South Korea. But overnight, new cases have been declared by the US, Italy, Iran, Lebanon, the UAE and Israel, among others.

And within China, reports of patient “re-infection” are starting. We’ve been talking about the adverse metabolic response a second covid-19 can cause.

Are we starting to see examples of that? Time will tell.

Meanwhile, the markets are begrudgingly waking up to the severe damage China’s broken supply chains are inflicting on world trade.

How much worse will it get?

Again, time will tell.

But Chris isn’t waiting to find out. He explains why in his new report Why I’m Ramping Up My Coronavirus Preparations, available to Peak Prosperity’s premium subscribers.

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151 Comments

  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 9:40pm

    #1
    aggrivated

    aggrivated

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    The American scenario

    With the Princess passengers flown back to the USA apparently against CDC advice, the bureaucratic muddling in the unfolding of this pandemic seems to be a necessary groundwork for it to spread. This does not count all the travelers that have returned from China and other nearby countries since December of last year. And the CDC has yet to produce a consistent batch of good test kits in any number.

    By mid-March the doubling will have happened twice if the 6-7 day time is correct.  My hope is that by then the stalling and obfuscation will be overwhelmed by facts on the ground.  It feels like we will repeat the example of Wuhan.

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 9:46pm

    #2
    LabCat

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    Media on the hot seat.

    This is reaching critical mass. The media will have to start telling the truth once it sinks in that THEY themselves may actually get sick too.

    It’s sad to see that the Peter-Principal also applies to the CDC and WHO.

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 9:53pm

    #3

    dtrammel

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    Updated The Comment Megathreads To Include 2/1-2/5

    I’ve updated the three comment megathreads to include the Peak Prosperity blog posts from 2/1/2020 through 2/5/2020. You can find them added to the original threads here:

    Coronavirus: Home Prep, Deep Pantry & Gardening Megathread

    Coronavirus: Sanitation, PPE and Self Quarantine Megathread

    Coronavirus: Medicinals, Herbals and Supplements Megathread

    I had to stop at 2/5 because the comments are getting huge, took me about 6 hours just on those three updates tonight. I will try to get the other blog posts this weekend and get us current on Chris’ videos. Lots of amazing comments.

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 10:36pm

    #4
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Coronavirus Megathreads: "how to" and "thank you!"

    There’s so much great, useful information being shared here at PP about the new coronavirus, aka Covid-2019, that its hard to keep up or dig through it all!

    PP member dtrammel has voluntarily (heroically!) taken on the enormous task of compiling Covid-2019 comments by topic from literally hundreds of PP posts from 30+ threads from January 2020. These posts are organized by topic and date into “Megathreads” and housed under the “Forums” section of the PP site, which is located on the lower right of the screen on any PP page, just below the “Comments” section.

    To find the Megathreads, from the “New Forum Topics” column click on “More” (upper right, immediately across from “New Forums Topics” heading).  This will bring you to the Forums page. Click on the “Current News and Events” folder. Scroll down through the topics until you find “Coronavirus: [Topic] Megathread”.  So far, dtrammel has compiled three threads, with others possible.

    This is a great resource for new PP members wanting to do a “deep dive” into a particular topic of immediate concern to them. Several questions that new members have may be answered by previous posts now housed in the Megathreads.

    The Coronavirus Megathreads are also a great resource for not-so-new PP members who want a quick and efficient way to revisit content of interest all in one place, rather than trying to find a specific post(s) among hundreds scattered throughout the site.

    And last but not least:  here’s a huge “Thank You!” to dtremmel for his extraordinary contributions of time and talent on behalf of the PP community! 🙂

    PS:  Now, if we could only upgrade the PP search/advance search function…(hint, hint, Admin).   😉

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 10:44pm

    #5

    dtrammel

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    Damned Sparky!

    Now you’re making me blush.

    Honestly I’m not doing that big of a service in my mind. Its the people here with professional experience like Chris who look over the papers and data and tell those of us who don’t have a clue, what the real information is so we can make informed and knowledgeable decisions.

    Its a great community here and its one I’m proud to be a member of, and help out in any small way I can.

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 11:01pm

    Reply to #3
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Reducing phlegm production in infected lungs

    Thanks dtrammel for all your hard work on the megathreads. I was just reading through and came across a comment by David Huang about reducing mucous congestion in your lungs during a period of infection.

    This seems to be a pretty important subject with Corona Virus as victims are dying as a result of deep lung inflammation and the onset of opportunistic bacterial infection during the latter stages of the illness such that the most severe cases end up on oxygen and respirators.

    Having spent many years in Africa and seen a number of friends and acquaintances die from HIV/AIDS I can tell you that what kills most of them in the end is respiratory failure.

    This Corona Virus is obviously not HIV but a lung is still a lung and there are some very simple ways to cut excess phlegm buildup in order to give relief and sometimes prolong life.

    I won’t discuss the medications here though. What I want to bring your attention to is such a simple solution that it defies comprehension why it’s not more widely discussed.

    One if the easiest and fastest ways to reduce serious lung congestion (and especially when it is the kind where infection causes your body to produce thick mucous that is difficult to expel) is to consume extra water.

    This is not your grandmothers advice. Hot teas, honey and garlic are not required for this to work.  Just copious amounts of good old fashioned water.

    That is what helps clear mucous out of an infected lung. I have seen this in action and no matter how childish or too simplistic it sounds it actually does work.

    It is an idea based on sound research as well so keeping this one little idea in mind can actually help save your life if your lungs have become unusually congested to the point of difficulty  in breathing.

    I dug around and found an article that links a research paper. It was easy to locate and there are others. I guess my point here is that sometimes the power to start changing our own medical outcomes is as near as the kitchen taps.

    For coughing up phlegm, water is key

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 11:13pm

    #6

    dtrammel

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    By Topic Coming

    You are right Nairobi, there are real gems in the comments that people post then they get forgotten. I saw one person post a link to a government site that says you can clean and sanitize N95 masks with a soak in hydrogen peroxide, then a water rinse and air dry. I completely missed that.

    When I get caught up to the current video, and get the health care and patient forms done (Tuesday-Wednesday), I’ll try and go back and collate the mega threads by specific subjects. That should give us a better idea of best practices. I’d really like to get a simple daily supplement regime figured out. Too many different suggestions at the moment, though I’ve settled on lots of Vitamin C, some D3, with a multi-vitamin and supplements of NAC and Zinc for now. I got the last bottle of elderberry tonic at the store last night, which will be if stuff gets bad.

    I figure we have about 2 weeks before this stuff gets serious. Be nice to know what we should be doing with some certainty.

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 11:32pm

    #7

    dtrammel

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    Nebulizer Works Until You Turn It Off

    Good article, but I was struck by their finding that a salt water based mist only works while the nebulizer is running. As soon as it stops sending mist to the lungs, the additional water retreats from the mucus, and its now hard to cough up.

    I wonder if a tent like chamber might be the solution. Something like a cool sauna, with very high humidity. A person could rest in it and cough up the mucus over a period of time, helping to free up the lungs of congestion. With a nebulizer mask you’d have to keep removing it to spit out the mucus.

    You could rig one up with a tube tent and a humidifier.

    I always get a hacking cough with stickie yellow mucus when I get the flu. Maybe I’ll consider this treatment to minimize that.

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 11:40pm

    Reply to #3
    chrissie.sugden

    chrissie.sugden

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    Reducing phlegm

    Thanks for the article. But it does say “Drinking more water won’t solve the problem. But there is already one method to make phlegm a little more watery. Patients can inhale concentrated salt through a device called a nebulizer (NEH-beu-lye-zur). Salt in the lungs yanks water out of the blood and delivers it to the dry mucus. The wetter mucus can then get hacked out. Now, Button notes, scientists understand just why the nebulizer works so well.

    But its effects don’t last long. “As soon as it’s turned off, all the fluid is reabsorbed,” Button says.”

    is that your experience?

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  • Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - 11:49pm

    Reply to #7
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Do whatever it takes to reduce risk of bacterial invasion.

    Yes I thought that was curious too. But nebulizers would not be used by the average person. Someone else had written in an earlier thread that saline nebulizers were useful because they created an environment that was really unfriendly for bacteria trying to invade your lungs.

    I think the key thing here though is to take whatever steps are necessary to minimize lung infections.

    From everything I have been reading on this virus the one constant seems to be that once your body is weakened by COVID that bacterial infections take over in the lower respiratory tract where pneumona sets in and kills you.

    To my way of thinking therefore we would want to be ready with aggressive action to reduce the bacterial invasions that accompany and follow this illness. Does that sound about right to you too?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 12:27am

    #8

    dtrammel

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    Pneumonia Seems To Be The Killer

    I think the key thing here though is to take whatever steps are necessary to minimize lung infections.

    From everything I have been reading on this virus the one constant seems to be that once your body is weakened by COVID that bacterial infections take over in the lower respiratory tract where pneumona sets in and kills you.

    To my way of thinking therefore we would want to be ready with aggressive action to reduce the bacterial invasions that accompany and follow this illness. Does that sound about right to you too?

    YES.

    It seems to me that the critical tipping point is when the fluid begins to build up in the interface between your lungs alveoli and the blood vessel walls. Either from bacterial pneumonia or  a cytokine storm of antibodies. Once that fluid begins to degrade the ability of your lungs to get oxygen to your body you are screwed.

    Means you need to moderate your immune system at that point OR figure out how to get that fluid out of your lungs fast.

    A supplement regime which first builds up your immune system to fight off the virus, then a second set of supplements which dampen the immune system might be the way to fight this from one side, then High saline content areosal humidity in an enclosed environment with expectorants to kick as much fluids out of the lungs from the other side could do it.

    Maybe?

    Let’s see what the lab coated people here say…

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 12:39am

    #9
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    The REAL CONTAGION Is FEAR

     

    We are about to shut down our entire civilization over something that kills relatively few.

    This is not Ebola. Not the Black Plague. For most people this is a sniffle and 3 sneezes.

    Yet our entire society shuts down – just from the FEAR of it.

    What will history say?

    -Andy

     

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 12:51am

    Reply to #8
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Great! We are on the same page with this idea. Hopefully one of the medical people will comment since the point of greatest weakness seems to be our lungs. So that’s what I will concentrate on knowing full well I may have to get through an infection without medical help if this pandemic spins out if control.

    Information is power brother Trammel!

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:11am

    Reply to #9
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Are you kidding Andy?

    Zerohedge reporting today that China claims they have 397 new Corona cases on the same day that South Korea announced 142 cases!

    We are getting very close to discovering the truth about how virulent and dangerous this illness is as the shroud of lies out of China is torn down and exposed by actual facts in other countries.

    South Korea is two months behind China with its infection growth but they are already posting very troubling numbers that should be indicating to us just how big a lie the Chinese have been telling all along.

    At this rate they will be reporting MORE cases that the Chinese by next week. Scoff if you like but the joke might be on all those who sucked up the big fabrication and treated it like facts.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:30am

    #10
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Yes - INFECTION Rate is HIGH - But DEATH Rate LOW

     

    I have been following the data on this from the start. Yes – this virus is clearly VERY contagious – yet outside Wuhan the severity and death rates are LOW.

    Look at the ‘Princess’ ship. 624 cases – but only 27 severe. And of those – only a small fraction will die.

    We are about to shut down our entire cizilization over this thing. Why?

    -Andy

     

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:52am

    Reply to #10
    chrissie.sugden

    chrissie.sugden

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    Why?

    Perhaps because the death rate isn’t the only ‘problem‘ Andy. Those who get severely ill but don’t die will have to live the rest of their lives with serious scarring in their lungs. If many people get sick at the same time, hospitals will be overwhelmed and the death rate will rise. And society will shut down anyway if a lot of people get sick at once. Do you really think governments would be considering such draconian measures if they didn’t believe the alternative would be worse?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 2:04am

    #11
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    'PRINCESS' Ship - ONLY 27 "Severe" Out Of 624 CASES

    And only a fraction of those will die.

    So we shut down our entire society? What kind of “Great Depression” will that bring?

    -Andy

     

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 2:07am

    Reply to #9

    travissidelinger

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    The REAL CONTAGION Is FEAR

    Yet our entire society shuts down – just from the FEAR of it.

    Pretty much, that is what we’ll do. Human’s are not really known for their ability to make difficult decisions rationally. This virus is not hitting the young hard, so it’s not physically a danger to the human race. If our grand parents happen to be on the unfortunate side of this virus, well I certainly don’t wish anything ill upon them, but this is just the nature of things. Your quality of you life should be more important then the quantity of life.

    My vote:
    * We keep the public fully educated (Like Chris has been doing)
    * We do not put people in mandatory quarantines. The economic impact will cause more harm and the quarantine will ultimately not work for this virus.
    * We do limit international travel to slow the spread.
    * We reasonably prepare hospitals for what’s coming.
    * We reasonable prepare nursing homes the inevitable fatalities.
    * We set priories on those who will get treated. If you are younger, you should get point in your favor. If you are expected to fully recover, you should get a point in your favor. If you have had a long history of medical complications over your life thus giving you a low probably of full recovery, then you probably should loose a point.

    Unfortunately we have probably let the global economy get too large, too interconnected, and too over leveraged (too much debt). And not by a little on these fronts. I agree with Adam’s call last week. This could trigger a complete civilization unraveling that will be very difficult to recover from.

    -Travis

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 3:30am

    #12
    kunga

    kunga

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    All adults here?

    Just because someone posts some technique or herb or supplement they think might be helpful, don’t just go try it willy-nilly until you have researched it for yourself.  Don’t be a Tide-Pod eating idiot.

    The Internet is a great tool for research, use it.

    Re: Salt water:  Some pathogenic bacteria like to grow in saline conditions.  Also, any water used to dilute must be sterile or at least clean.  Folks in New Orleans using Netti pots with tap water developed deadly brain parasites.  The nasal area is very close to your brain.

    Re: Vitamin D is best taken with Vitamin K2 so as not to impact the bones.

    More people die from stupidity than viruses.  Don’t be one of them.

    Thank you for posting useful comments.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:11am

    #13
    Jay Pine

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    Re-infection

    Hi all,

    New here – live in the UK. Regards re-infection – isn’t there every chance that people allowed out from hospital in China have been allowed out before being fully recovered and then gone back into an environment where the virus is lurking. So this leads me to this question: does this/can this happen with any other virus. e.g. can you have a relapse as not fully recovered and you meet the virus again before full antibody protection is established?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:17am

    Reply to #11
    Wolfbay

    Wolfbay

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    If the virus is very contagious as it seems to be it may infect hundreds of millions of people. That means millions could die and the health care system would be totally overwhelmed.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:18am

    Reply to #13
    Awka72

    Awka72

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    Makes sense to me

    Hi Jay,

    Seems plausible. Given everything we have seen of the conditions, most people would likely be pretty rundown when discharged, and susceptible.

    I’ve also read in several places that we do not really develop immunity to coronaviruses in general. Even the less devastating varieties, we can easily catch them again shortly after the initial infection.I believe it is generally thought to be a few months though?

    This one sounds as though it’s lingering in the body for a long time too. Maybe it can go “dormant” somehow? And flare up again?? Scary thought….

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:35am

    #14
    Jay Pine

    Jay Pine

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    Asymptomatic patients

    • Another question for Doc. Chris orvany medical types. Regards asymptomatic ‘carriers’ – I have found in the past the beginnings of a cold can get stuck up around my throat and tonsils for a time before it either develops or sometimes I never get a full blown cold. Is it possible these, mostly younger, people are holding off the infection at this level? If so, guessing we need to develop an instant throat swab for this virus. Would love replies!

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:38am

    Reply to #11

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

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    Pay Attention

    This insane bubble we’ve been living in for over a decade, has been just waiting for a reason to burst.  It’s gonna burst due to some black swan event.  Something less virulent than Covid-19 would have done the trick.

    Sadly, history may place the lions share of the blame on the virus and downplay humanities idiocy before the event.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:45am

    Reply to #9

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

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    We reasonably prepared the hospitals...

    Both of my daughters are RNs.  One left the field entirely after 7 years.  The other is in management.  Both describe the profession in severely unflattering terms and it’s not the patients.

    The hospital closest to my home has beds that they don’t use, because they can’t get the necessary staffing (nurses).  They will frequently be full already, during the flu season.  There is no capacity for this.

    I can’t speak for the rest of the world, but going to the hospital, in the US these days, is something you want to avoid, if possible.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:53am

    #15
    Bradford

    Bradford

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    "Thieves Oil"

    A friend recommended that I research the history of “Thieves Oil Blend” which dates back to year 1413, and was used during the Bubonic Plague. I did and decided it could be a good additional “tool” to use at home. Currently a small bottle of high quality Thieve’s oil of therapeutic quality is pretty pricey, but I found a good facsimile on Amazon called “germ fighter.” After some research on diffusers I decided to go with an atomizing nebulizer diffuser which was considerably more expensive than the ultrasonic (water/oil diluted) mist diffusers, and so I ended up purchasing the “Advanced Aromatherapy Essential Oil Diffuser”. This virus eliminating strategy might be something you’d also want to look into.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:06am

    #16

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 633

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    Take a break from Coronavirus and Watch this beautiful performance

    It is healthy to pause momentarily and let our minds refresh….and remind us why we cling to life.  This is humanity at it’s highest level of accomplishment.  Enjoy

    https://youtu.be/X1T4J4qcLZk

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:31am

    Reply to #15
    Mary59

    Mary59

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    Thieves Oil

    Hello to all.  I am not an aromotherapist but I have been studying and working with essential oils for about thirty years.  Thieves is a very interesting blend and the original recipe incudes vinegar and other herbal tinctures.  The modern “thieves” blends normally include pure essential oils of clove, cinnamon, lemon, eucalyptus and rosemary – sometimes others.  Thyme and allspice (pimenta dulce) are also very good, as is tea tree.  Frankencense and myrhh are also excellent anti virals.

    I am currently blending a clothes and hair mist made with non irritating oils so I will use Frankencense and myrhh at 2% in 94% alcohol for that and then a mist for decontaminating phones and objects with teatree and clove at 3% in 94% alcohol.  Very strong vodka can be used also if one doesnt wish ethanol (rubbing alcohol).  Never use or touch pure essential oils to the skin as they can be very irritating.  I read eucalyptus, and tea tree are the best for anti viral use in the diffusers.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:56am

    Reply to #16
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

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    Thank you, OOG

    for the reminder. Awesome.

    …for a less monumental accomplishment, we have one last heifer to calve. 96% success.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:30am

    Reply to #9

    dcm

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Posts: 122

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    The Real Contagion

    Is ignorance    Fear is a function of survival. Animals fear but it’s the humans who’ve perfected ignorant bliss. Just because the powerful exploit fear along with every other human emotion does not dismiss its necessity.  I can’t imagine the Chinese authorities are over reacting. More like they’re kicking themselves for the very opposite.  Even though no one has the actual fatality rate, watching endless bodies crammed into vans has got to cause some discomfort.  And for good reason. In the end, I would wager less societies have collapsed due to fear than poor planning

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:36am

    Reply to #16

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Posts: 844

    2+

    Amazing Video - Thank You Oliveoilguy

    Wow, they were flawless and beautiful, it was a joy to watch!

    Thanks for posting, a delightful break indeed!

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 8:54am

    Reply to #16
    kunga

    kunga

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    Ice video

    Thank you , Oliveoilguy, I am in tears.  White men can’t jump but they can lift.  Vanessa James is exquisite.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 9:08am

    Reply to #10
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Andy s re death rates and infection rates

    Andy,  I feel very sorry you do not understand the consequences at all.  First, there are probably deaths related to this outside of china – but no one would know – in the US , they dont even or cant even test you. They do not have a viable test.

    Second but more importantly, you are looking at death rates. Not hospitalization and serious care rates. Which would be fatal if they are unable to receive extreme measures of supportive care including anti-virals ( hiv)   antibiotics, oxygen, saline, ventilation machines for ARDS and pnemonia.    The BIG reason no one is dying outside china, is that when numbers of people requiring treatment is low – there is available measures supportive measures to keep them alive.  This is an important concept to understand.  We do not have near enough beds, or icu ventilators, or even antibiotics and very expensive HIV drugs to treat more than few people with this.. Once it blows up , many will die from not being able to get treatment.   You need to understand this process of overwhelming the medical ssystem beyond thier capacity.  an additional flu that infects only 8-10% of the population per season with a 1% complication rate would bury our medical system in the US.. This would infect 30-50% easily as there is no inherent immunity, and a complication rate of 20% possibly more.  And if you dont see the reason of stopping this , you are a fool a really big one.

    And finally,  None of this accounts for that this is the type of virus that you can get reinfected again and again.  And the second infection , is 5 times as deadly.  so , you know very little.  if this blows up people will get it and kill many, and if they survived it would come again next year or few months and many many more will die.

    And on one more final note,   even if you survive this , the amount of damage to your respiratory system , heart and cardiovascular system , and nervous system would leave the rest likely disabled for life.  So, please educate your self. as all you are seeing is current death rate and not understanding disease process and pandemic at all.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 9:38am

    Reply to #11
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    4+

    Let's shut down society

    Andy, you bring up a good point. The response to the virus could be just as devastating as the illness itself. That’s the gist of what Gail Tverberg said and she was widely criticized. Personally, the only thing me and the wife can do it keep doing what we have been, that is leading super healthy lives, trying to help a few people, rejecting GMO crap etc…. But if it’s my turn to die, then so be it. I’m not in a position to get myself a 100 acre private ranch right now and ride it out. Thanks to everyone for all the good information on this site.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 9:47am

    Reply to #16
    Geedard

    Geedard

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    Joined: Oct 13 2014

    Posts: 63

    5+

    To Oliveoilguy and Andy

    @ OOG – thanks for sharing – spectacular performance – pleasure to see!

    @ Andy…Event 201 recently “simulated” the death of 65 million people from Coronavirus.   Maybe the real thing will be tiny numbers in comparison to the simulation…but I for one say bollocks to shrugging – if the choice is shrug n die – or – fight n die, then I’m fighting all the way…   Whatever the price.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 9:55am

    Reply to #9
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    Fear will rule

    Probably reflects human nature to a great extent. Like China, we (Americans and others) will be way too complacent in the beginning an too draconian down the road when people begin to freak out.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:01am

    Reply to #15
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    Essential oils

    Regarding the Thieves formulation and other oils, I wonder has this been proven. I love the smell of Clary Sage and sometimes drench myself in it. By about 30 minutes later I can’t smell it anymore. Same with Eucalyptus. What I’m wondering is if you put on some oils in the morning, does it really protect you hours later or do you need to constantly apply it every hour?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:13am

    Reply to #9
    Geedard

    Geedard

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    Joined: Oct 13 2014

    Posts: 63

    1+

    To Mr Curious

    I agree with your comment completely and Andy S makes a very reasonable point.

    Civilisation (herd) will react however it will – and it always does.   Our own personal response should be to improve our own feelings and situation the best way we can…

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:21am

    #17

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    1+

    Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22 has reported a case with an incubation period of 27 days

    Scroll down to “incubation period” and click on “27 days”

     

    Summary of findings:

    • 2-14 days represents the estimated range at the moment for the novel coronavirus COVID-19 (formerly “2019-nCoV”).
    • An outlier of a 24 days incubation period has been observed in a recent study. WHO said it could actually reflect a second exposure rather than a long incubation period, and that it wasn’t going to change its recommendations.
    • Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22 has reported a case with an incubation period of 27 days. [11]

     

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:33am

    #18
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 329

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    Andy, Please get your Sh&*& together

    First, Do you notice you are the only person posting in bold?   Second, you are clearly uninformed.   DO you know how many people get the flu in a given year in the US?   what % of the population?  do you know the complication rate?  the death rate?

    Do you know there is no inherent immunity to this virus, which means 30-60% of the population or more can get this in one season?  do you know what that would look like with the 1% complication rate in the medical community?  what if it is the 5% that you say is so low on the cruise?   that is 20x more hospitalizations.   But I assure you its not 5% complication rate on the cruise due to lag – it takes people up to- 3-4 weeks to develop serious illness.. Some of those counts were infected a day ago – a week ago??  its just starting to blow up..   What we know its at least 5%.. with it only able to trend up..    So., this is not close to flu.. this could be 50-100x as many people needing treatment as the flu in a given year.. additionally. the hospital time and duration of the flu – is 3-14 days.. This is 3-5 weeks and perhaps longer.. so you wont be freeing any beds for the next wave..   Please put the puzzle pieces together.. and stop thinking like the media and officials who of course dont want you to know the truth .. what would that achieve?  So, that is why you dont know.. you are sheeple.. the only way you can help yourself is to go beyond numbers – and try to understand what this is and its not the flu and how it works.. and why there are no vaccines for coronavirus..  and how second and third infections are possible and how much damage this virus causes to the body even if you survive ,, you can be permanently disabled.   Please wake up – go do something other than starring at numbers till brain is numb..

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:35am

    Reply to #3
    Mary59

    Mary59

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    Joined: Feb 09 2020

    Posts: 23

    6+

    Thank you for you dedicated work to the Cause

    Thank you for your important work.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:36am

    #19

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    14+

    Car Insurance Andy

    I’ll admit that many of the conversations here give the appearance we are all giving into fear Andy, but in my opinion its not fear but the natural tendencies humans have to focus on a new “shiny thing”. We often go a little overboard, be it a health threat or the Blues hockey team winning the Stanley Cup. As a St Louis resident, that got a little crazy I can tell you. And I’m not even a hockey fan.

    That said, I look at my preparations for this, like car insurance. I pay about $600US a year for coverage. I’ve not had a serious accident in 30 years. So statistically I could drop my insurance and probably be ok.

    I give this virus perhaps a 25% chance it will seriously affect the medical side of society. Maybe higher in a few local situations. My chance of getting it, probably 50/50. Even at 62, my chance of having serious enough complications to need a hospital, less than 10%. I’m luckily pretty healthy and fit.

    And yet, I have still spent about $1500 over the past month on re-filling my deep pantry and brings by resources back up to where I had them in the 80s when I was a serious prepper.

    Do I think that money is ill spent? No.

    Do I think that the time I’ve spent learning about this subject is ill spent? No.

    There are many dangers and situation where I could find myself in an emergency. And everything I’ve done so far is just like my car insurance. There if or when I need it.

    I’m honestly more worried about supply chain problems. I was screwed pretty badly by the 2008 financial crisis, and I have little to no belief that the government has any clue how to deal with the fall out that will cause. I expect that the short sighted idiots that make up the financial industry will make every mistake they can and then come running to the politicians to bail them out of their stupidity.

    So I’m watching this situation closely, but I’m still getting ready to have a concrete pad pour two weeks from now, to then have a garden shed and workshop built in my backyard this Spring.

    Now I’m going to go visit friends and have lunch, though one of them is a RN and I’m going to get her to show me how to us my new oximeter and blood pressure cuff, lol.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:56am

    #20
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Here is a picture for you Andy.

    Lets assume that this has a high R0 its pretty well proven to be very high – But lets assume it is high-enough to go pandemic ( R 1.5 ) just a bit higher than the flu –  No virus with this high an R 0 has ever been contained.  Lets look at what the CDC even said yesterday.

    The virus is not widespread in our community “YET”, it is a possibility , even likely that it will be in the future.

    lets then assume that – more than 8-10% of the population rate will catch this as the flu each year because there no inherent immunity.  so lets assume 30-50% of people get this the first year?  what does that look like?  compared to the flu?

    lets assume this has at least the complication rate if not much much higher as your “low cruise” numbers suggest.  What does that look like with that infection rate?

    Do you know how many hospital beds are available in per capita in the US?  I can tell you its less than half that was in the 1960 and ranked 80th country in the world.  Did you know our medical system in the US is already over-burdened and cannot survive the burden of a second flu. ?  what will that look like?

    Do you know what it will look like when there is no way to get IV fluilds , a hospital bed, oxygen.. and no chance whatever to get a respiratory ventilator required for the associated ARDS.     Do you know where 97% of our antibiotics are made? syringes? gloves? facemasks?   IV bags?     Do you know, that with just 6 weeks of shuttering in china, our big box stores announced that the shelves will be empty by april?   auto parts , medical equipment and just about everthing within arms reach of you including your coffee cup and computer and phone are all made in china.  That stuff is not going to be available and if you can get it – you will pay 4 times the price.

    Now put the picture together, mass amounts of people sick all at the same time, unable to get through the door at your local hospital .. people dying on the sidewalks and basic supplies not being available..

    That is the future .. You better get used to it.. and there will be no quarantines in the US – we do not have the ability and people will not do it. and we have guns.. so people will not go quietly when there is no supplies hospital care and food available..   This is all a best case scenario at this time.. really.  i do not want to predict the future.. but this is it. the govt in the US is assuring it by pulling a wuhan II here.  but they have an agenda..   OUR world is going to be forever changed.  I assure this.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 11:01am

    #21
    Mesquite

    Mesquite

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    Joined: Feb 22 2020

    Posts: 2

    4+

    I am not a doctor, and I don’t play one on TV. But, I want to pass along a medical suggestion given to me to cut and loosen phlegm.

    Alavera juice. About 3 tablespoons or more to 8 oz. glass of grape juice or dark colored koolaid (the alavera has a bitter taste).

    Had to repeatedly take a family member to the hospital because he would react to cold fronts coming in by getting deep bronchitis. Nurse told me to put him on alavera.

    When he would start to react to the allergen the front brought in, I would put him on alavera. Never had to take him to the hospital again.

    Fair warning…it loosens everything up and cleans you out.

    Hope this helps.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 11:11am

    #22
    Rajkumarijay

    Rajkumarijay

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    Joined: Feb 08 2020

    Posts: 44

    5+

    NY University student dies of the flu?

    I haven’t seen this reported on this forum so maybe I missed it, but have you all seen the report (It was on the CNN home page) about a student at Rensselaer Poly that was found dead in his room from the flu? He was Chinese. Wouldn’t that set off alarm bells? For instance, maybe we should test him for Covid-19? The other weird thing is they showed a picture of the coronavirus (the round spiky ball you see everywhere) and I thought the flu was not a coronavirus and not a round spiky ball. But they are only reporting it as influenza.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 11:15am

    #23

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    1+

    Coronavirus: Iran now says 6th person dead of Covid-19

    Coronavirus: Iran now says 6th person dead of Covid-1

    So far, 28 cases have been confirmed in Iran, including at least five of the six who died. People are being treated for the virus in at least four different cities, including the capital, Tehran, where some pharmacies had already run out of masks and hand sanitizer. Other cities are Qom, Arak and Rasht.

    https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-outbreak/coronavirus-iran-now-says-6th-person-dead-of-covid-19

     

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 11:26am

    #24
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 251

    3+

    Tax time

    Sorry, can’t post a link, but just read a CNN article that said the IRS will be sending door to door employees to people with 6 figure incomes and who file late. Reminding them to file on time this year.  Very weird.  Now we not only have census potential spreaders but the IRS, too.  Things are getting stranger and stranger.

    My piddly taxes are done and in the box.  Going grey.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 12:05pm

    #25
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 251

    1+

    Shopping and food prep

    My strategy: determine the low traffic times for the businesses I may need to visit; post office, bank, grocery, gas station, hardware.  Less people contact.  Also, know the big delivery days when they are stocked up. I usually go the following day as not so many delivery boxes in isles and product is stocked.

    Food prep: In China raw vegetables are never eaten, word to the wise.  I would say unless it’s something like an avocado with a tough, washable, outer husk, cook everything.  I doubt if freezing will kill corona or most bacteria.  Also, plastics.  Think of all food you buy that is packaged in some form of plastic.  Some chemicals in the formulation of plastics are made in China.  If manufacturers can’t find packaging, you won’t get the product.  Frozen foods, etc. etc….

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 12:19pm

    #26
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    3+

    Iran under attack?

    What’s exactly is going on with the outbreak of COVID 19 in Iran? That country does not have very deep connections with China. They do with Russia but Russia isn’t a vector source.

    Wiki notes that one of the smallest Chinese populations outside China is the community in Iran numbering just 2 to 3 thousand people. And yet they are surging to the top of the list with multiple infection zones.

    I was just reading that most major cities in Iran are currently experiencing viral outbreaks and honestly let’s just pause for a second and ask how that might have come about when Egypt has a single case and a very busy Asian hub like Dubai are reporting four but those were all a single family from Wuhan.

    To me this is more evidence of the militarization of this virus. And so it’s not really a big surprise that South Korean cases are exploding which presumptively implies neighboring North Korea is going to join them very soon.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:05pm

    #27
    DisappearingCulture

    DisappearingCulture

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 21 2014

    Posts: 53

    11+

    Chris/Adam...Source Used by the CDC [my wife & an editor friend work there]

    My wife works closely with the head medical editor of the CDC’s publication Emerging Infectious Diseases https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/  A friend is an editor there.

    He gave me this website http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/   They have just started a Covid-19 Resource Center http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:09pm

    #28
    Alexis

    Alexis

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 66

    Pandemic bonds?

    im not sure where to post this question… will triggering the pandemic bond threshold send the stock market bubble down?? I’m a super stock market newbie and trying to figure out what I should do with my Roth  (I’m 38) but just keep thinking that deaths at 2500 triggering those funds released  are going to set some whistles off… no?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:20pm

    #29
    Aayla

    Aayla

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 14 2020

    Posts: 1

    4+

    Nebraska Quarantine Site

    I live in Nebraska, work on the same campus where the Federal Quarantine Center is located, and my house is within 10 miles from the Army National Guard camp that entertained 57 people who were potential coronavirus carriers. After 2 weeks the 57 were released, all reporting negative for the virus. Of the 13 who were initially put in the Quarantine Center, 11 are positive; 3 moved to the Biocontainment unit since the exhibited symptoms. I have great faith in the medical professionals who work these specialized units since they train year round…successfully treated Ebola patients a few years ago.  But…I’m not sure we know everything about the etiology of the virus, and what if two weeks of quarantine isn’t long enough? So for now, we have a household protocol to sanitize hands with gel before entering the house, and washing hands often. Also adding to the pantry “just in case.”

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:26pm

    Reply to #16
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 947

    8+

    heifer

    …heifer had a bull calve… 27 abound, only 1 lost.

    thanks, robie

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:30pm

    Reply to #26
    Dutchman

    Dutchman

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    Joined: Feb 12 2020

    Posts: 5

    2+

    Re: Iran under attack?

    Nairobi, I was just thinking about the same about the possibility that it is a militarized “thing”. The only difference in my mind was that North Korea is hit very badly (all is censured) and that it now have crossed the border to the south.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 1:50pm

    #30
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 334

    Statistics: the art of going wrong with confidence

    dtrammel wrote,

    That said, I look at my preparations for this, like car insurance. I pay about $600US a year for coverage. I’ve not had a serious accident in 30 years. So statistically I could drop my insurance and probably be ok.

    Some wag defined statistics as “the art of going wrong with confidence.”

    Please consider. My car was going just great, bought in early 2011, nothing wrong with it at all, excellent value for money, quite possibly another 9 years’ life left in it, all of this factored into my forward budget estimates, when a few weeks ago a hailstorm described as “vicious” swept in a narrow band across parts of Canberra and wrought havoc upon buildings and vegetation and 20 to 30,000 motor vehicles My car was a total loss. The insurers paid me out and now I have a shiny, newer replacement vehicle which promises well, but what if the insurers weren’t able to pay my claim, or if they refused to pay, or if no replacement vehicle were available? The second-hand car market became extremely busy!

    A statistician told me a while back that EVERYTHING has an error rate. Obvious when one thinks about it.

    Like many PPers my little household is making preparations, one of which is elderberry syrup. We bought some packets of dehydrated berries, one of which is imported from Poland. Oz is at the far end of some l-o-n-g supply chains! If there is an indigenous substitute, it hasn’t come to light yet, and I fear that it may have come to grief under some housing or agribusiness “development”. Part of our self-insurance here is to stock up on alternatives to elderberries, of which there’s a few.

    Yes, what are the odds?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 2:02pm

    Reply to #21
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    2+

    Mesquite, Alavera or Aloe Vera juice?

    Hi Mesquite, Welcome to PP!  Thanks for the info. Would you please confirm that the juice you used was “Alavera” or “Aloe Vera”? I hadn’t heard of “alavera” so wanted to make sure.  Thanks! 🙂

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 2:05pm

    Reply to #15
    vitalvision

    vitalvision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 08 2015

    Posts: 12

    2+

    Mr Curious - Essential OIls

    Great Question. Your olfactory system is created to shut off the latest smell after about 20 minutes. It is created as part of your defense system.  If you smell something dangerous and your system is not cleared, you may not smell the next danger, or opportunity I should add.  Think of the antelope and the lion who have much better olfactory sense than we do.

    Just because you do not smell the EO does not mean its molecules are not active in your systems doing what they are good at.

    So the takeaway?  When manufacturers add chemicals to make smells last longer they are hurting you  (think Plug-ins.) That said, your body will metabolize the essential oils so you may need to repeat them several times a day depending on what you are trying to accomplish. but it usually is only a drop or two that you need with high-quality oils (which are all you want to use). Inhalation by running a diffuser is a great way to use them and it does not need to run constantly to be effective.

    Hope this helps.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 2:37pm

    #31

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    3+

    Not Enough Beds At Critical Biohazard Facilities - Relocate The Sick?

    Not sure what to make of this.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/federal-judge-blocks-effort-transfer-coronavirus-patients-california-city-n1140786

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 2:43pm

    Reply to #31
    Alexis

    Alexis

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    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 66

    2+

    California quarantine

    i think they realized the setting was inappropriate for a quarantine.  But wonder if they are running out of room on bases….

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 2:59pm

    #32
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    6+

    So this is it...

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-20-full-transcript-smoking-gun-interview-prof-frances-boyle-coronavirus-bioweapons.html
    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-19-covid-19-coronavirus-found-to-contain-gain-of-function-for-efficient-spreading-human-population.html

    Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2

    SARS-like cluster

    I think I have the definitive evidence where this came from and it came from the BSL-3 biowarfare lab at the University of North Carolina. Now I have condemned them before because they have done gain of function work, DNA genetic engineering on every hideous biological warfare agent you can imagine including MERS at that time, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome agent, which again, is a biowarfared coronavirus.

    first notice who was involved in this DNA genetic engineering of SARS, which is already a biological warfare agent to give it gain of function activities. And it has all these people there from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. It has someone from the Food and Drug Administration, so you can’t trust the Food and Drug Administration. And then at the very bottom of the list, who is involved? Zhengli-Li Shi, Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China.

    What happened was, if you read carefully to the end of the article acknowledgements, they acknowledged a National Natural Science Foundation of China award. In other words, the Chinese government paid them to have one of their top biological warfare experts involved in this type

    I noticed they acknowledged National Natural Science Foundation of China Award. In other words, these best scientists at the University of North Carolina took dirty money from China to allow that one of their top biowarfare experts from this Wuhan Institute of Virology and Wuhan, which has the BSL-4 facility, they knew exactly what they were doing, and they permitted this Chinese scientist to work with them to give gain of function biowarfare DNA genetic capability to SARS, which is dangerous enough to begin with. And let me just go through some of the language here. It is truly a smoking gun; clearly that laboratory must be shut down of immediately and all those scientists investigated by the United States government for this and their responsibility here and for violating my Biological Weapons and Terrorism Act of 1989. But let me continue. This is what they said. “We built a chimeric virus that encodes a novel zoonotic spike protein in the context of viable SARS. This approach characterized the threat posed by SARS coronavirus spike–

    Wow. And again, SARS is the same coronavirus family.
    Right. It’s weaponized coronavirus. They also conclude that they really couldn’t find an antibody against it.

    Now, let me continue here where they say their new DNA genetically engineered virus constitutes a gain in pathogenesis. That’s a gain of function right there; they admit it. Pathogenesis means lethality and infectiousness and we know that even Lancet has said lethality is about 15%. If you disaggregate numbers even put out by the Chinese government, it’s about 17%.

    In a footnote it says, “Cells were originally obtained from Fort Detrick.”

    all this work, this biological weapons work involving the Wuhan virology, was approved and funded by the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious disease. Okay. I told you before, these agencies were up to their eyeballs in research development and testing offensive biological warfare weapon.

    Notice the National Institutes of Health under Fauci is funding this Nazi biological warfare work and they have approved and requested further development of it, which obviously, this study was 2015 and the NIH wanted it to become even a more deadly pathogenetic virus. And you can also then see here the money from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease

    Today in USA Today, Tony Fauci admits that the lethality rate of MERS is about 36%, whereas SARS is 10%. This Wuhan is 15% to 17%.

    the Wuhan scientists took the North Carolina SARS with gain of function, which is already a biological warfare weapon, and they took the technology here behind this well-developed SARS HIV weapon and they all brought it back to the Wuhan a BSL-4 and tried to DNA genetically engineer it into a chimera, into a biological warfare weapon involving the coronavirus, the HIV virus and gain of function.

    they didn’t steal it; they bought it. And we sold it to them, and we sold them access to it. They brought it back to that Wuhan BSL-4—

    What is significant here is that it is by two professors at the South China University of Technology – they’re all professors. And their conclusion of this study is that the Wuhan coronavirus leaked out of that BSL-4 facility. Let me repeat – even Chinese scientists are saying now, independently of me, it leaked out. And I believe it was probably an accident that there was a one of these death scientists there at the Wuhan BSL-4 facility trying to DNA genetically engineer the North Carolina technology, the Australian technology, HIV, SARS, gain of function together into the super biological warfare weapon and somehow got infected.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 3:21pm

    #33
    Funky Finn

    Funky Finn

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 6

    1+

    19 new makeshift hospitals being built in Wuhan

    It’s now quite clear that the (reported) decrease in new cases in China is merely propaganda of the Communist Party. Or maybe they are preparing for the ”return to work”?

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180377.shtml

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 3:23pm

    Reply to #28
    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    1+

    Alexis.

    Don’t worry, your Roth(schild) IRA is in good hands.  I will not give you any advice one way or the other but, here is the long and short of the stock market as I have seen it.  Yes, it has made many people very wealthy.

    If the market tanks, there most-likely won’t be a chance in hell that you’ll be able to get your funds sold/out.  Think about this.  Let’s say you have 100k in there.  That is a lot of money for a 38 yo.  However, your agent, broker, investment counselor, whatever you want to call them has 500 clients, 1000, 100… whatever.  Most have far more money invested.  Where would you start if you were that person?  They start with who has made them the most money.  When do you get the call?  It’s nothing personal, just business.  With the algorithmic trading these days, a tremendous loss can be incurred rather quickly.  (minutes, hours) by the time you connect, it might be too late.  But based on the past experiences of others, your money won’t have gone away, it will have gone to someone in the top .01%.  Always has.

    I hear the tax hit for early withdraw is like 50%.  50% is better than nothing, imo but that is your call.  I personally have never owned stock or had any kind of retirement account.  We are self-employed.

    If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.  These bastards at the top are ruthless and don’t give one damn about any of us.  Start taking control of your life.

    Best of luck.

     

     

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 3:31pm

    Reply to #21
    Mesquite

    Mesquite

    Status: Member

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    1+

    I probably spelled it wrong. Your spelling looks correct.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 3:44pm

    Reply to #31
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    dt regarding of trasnfer of patients.

    The town filed a law suit to stop the transfer – apparently, its enough to temporarily stop the transfer

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:01pm

    Reply to #31
    Sparky1

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    Mistrust breeds local Covid-2019 pushback

    I’m glad the judge over ruled the transfer to a facility that was clearly inadequate to the task of effectively and safely quarantining these folks. WTH were the “authorities” thinking to even entertain relocating these suspected/infected people to a dilapidated facility in a highly populated urban community???

    Recently I posted articles of other such local efforts of pushback on lax federal and state efforts to contain the virus spread from local communities. One was in Texas and the other in a California school district. I think this is less a “not-in-my-back-yard” phenomenon, but rather a manifestation of local mistrust of CDC and complicit state health departments to be truthful, considerate and protective of community health. The bureaucrats have betrayed their respective public health missions and the public’s trust.

    We may see more challenges to CDC and state health departments efforts to relocate Covid-2019 suspected/infected citizens as this pandemic spreads. Most people would prefer having their loved ones quarantined at home, if possible and if well-supported. On the other hand, local communities recognize that they are insufficiently informed, supported and prepared to serve as dumping grounds of rampant, concentrated hot spots of Covid-2019 quarantined or acutely ill patients. So they’re beginning to push back.

    IMO, the WHO, CDC and state health departments have really screwed-up by failing to effectively contain this pandemic early on and inform and protect the public. They’ve had nearly three months to get it right, and it seems like they’ve screwed this up at every possible critical juncture, making matters worse and continuing to do so moving forward.

    People are starting to realize that this coronavirus is spreading quickly and is much more serious than they’ve been led to believe by the “authorities” and the MSM, so no surprise that now they mistrust the messengers and the message.

    Welcome to “The Fourth Turning.” This is sure to get uglier as the pandemic gets worse. :-/

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:20pm

    #34
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Doubts about Elderberry Syrop

    My one big issue with this very popular home medicinal called Elderberry (and Elderberry Syrop) is that its proven to excite your auto-immune response and may therefore actually increase your health risk when confronted by COVID 19.

    We obviously do not yet know what will happen to users of Elderberry since there is no research on the subject but one thing that is factual is that Corona has shown it can sometimes stimulate an immune response so severe it becomes fatal for the patient.

    I only wanted to mention this as a caution since I notice this topic and its references come up repeatedly here yet there is no science behind the use of Elderberry preparations in conjunction with Novel Coronavirus.

    And yet most on this site seem to have been sold on the benefits without consideration that it could actually increase your risk.

    Remember people, this is NOT the common cold we are up against. It is frankly one of the most dangerous viruses any of us have ever faced contracting and its profile leads me to believe that it is sometimes most dangerous when it encounters immune systems that are enhanced or well developed.

    How many more videos do we really need to see of mid life or middle aged people dropping dead in the street in China before we acknowledge this is not just an old person sickness.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:27pm

    #35
    Mareta

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    Pandemic Phase 6??

    Wow what the fudge, unreal. Korea 433, Italy 79, Iran 29 (dodgy number with 6 dead CFR 2% its probably at least 300 cases).  WHO definition of phase 6 pandemic is marginally met… sustained human to human transmission in 2 or more WHO regions. Well if they can contain it in Korea, Italy and Iran through tracing then pandemic is averted “transmission unsustained”. I doubt it. If not, I believe its time to call it a duck…?

    What amazes me is this thing is moving faster than WHO. WHO team just arrived in China and this thing is already in 3 other places..must be panic stations at the WHO HQ? Everyone is getting caught with their pants down! Sounds a little familiar… Wuhan, Diamond Princess v2?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:27pm

    Reply to #31
    Rajkumarijay

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    Desperation?

    Sounds like they want the coved-19 cases off of the military bases since they have now realized how infectious the disease is. Sort or like a, “not in my backyard,” approach.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:30pm

    #36

    dtrammel

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    Worry Alexis But Take Prudent Precautions

    Don’t worry, your Roth(schild) IRA is in good hands.  I will not give you any advice one way or the other but, here is the long and short of the stock market as I have seen it.

    Alexis (and others), I didn’t see your original post so I’m not sure of your question.

    I agree with BillL, you shouldn’t remove your money from your child’s Roth and take a big tax hit but to be concerned about a market correction wiping out a big portion of it is correct. I’m betting its invested in a host of stocks and bonds that if the market does drop, will decrease the value of that Roth perhaps significantly.

    Check with your plan’s administrator. You should have an option to transfer the investment strategy into a fund that is basically a savings account. Mine called it a “Guaranteed Fund”. It pays like 1% but importantly, its not affected if the market goes up or goes down.

    Its typically used by people near retirement to decrease risks of a short term drop which saps value with no time to make it back.

    Have your manager transfer the funds into that, then revisit where you want to put it in 6 months depending on what happens. You can’t time the market but you can take steps to protect yourself.

    (Not a paid financial adviser, nor do I play one on TV but I’ve read a lot, lol)

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:31pm

    Reply to #28
    Sparky1

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    Alexis, PP Endorsed Financial Advisor

    Hi Alexis, Chris and Adam have this “endorsed financial advisor” with whom I believe they have their own financial assets invested:

    https://www.greylockpeak.com/

    It is my understanding that they will provide free consultation(s). I also understand that they come from a perspective that the “”markets”” are indeed rigged and teetering on the brink of collapse. That being said, they apparently manage assets in such a way as to hedge against these risks.

    I also agree with BillL’s general perspective, but suggest that you check with a like-minded financial advisor before moving your funds. Also, IMO, this is a good time to be stacking physical gold and silver, regardless of what you do with your Roth fund. You can get fractional precious metals (gold and silver) at pretty low cost–about $180 for 1/10 oz. gold eagle; or about $65 for a 1 gram gold bar; or about $22 for 1 oz. American silver eagle. I get mine from jmbullion.com (free shipping w/$100 minimum purchase) or at my trusted local coin shop. There are other dependable on-line and local dealers. I’ve been cautioned to stay away from e-bay, though.

    You’re asking the right questions, so good for you! Good luck! 🙂

    Disclosure: I don’t have any financial or personal interest in jmbullion.com or its personnel. I am not a financial advisor. I am just offering my perspective based on my personal experience. You should seek professional financial advice and assistance as appropriate, yadda, yadda, yadda….  😉

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:45pm

    Reply to #31
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Blocked Covid transfer: Military needs room for quarantined personnel?

    Or maybe they need to clear this space for Covid-2019 suspected/infected military personnel. All military personnel and their families, and contractors traveling on or after 2/2/20 from China (or other affected areas?) were to be quarantined for minimum 14 days.

    https://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/reference/messages/Documents/NAVADMINS/NAV2020/NAV20039.txt

    There must be thousands under quarantine, and more than likely some have been confirmed as infected. (This doesn’t take into consideration those that became exposed and/or infected prior to 2/2/20.) Undoubtedly, the military officials would keep that information under wraps so as not to alert US enemies of this vulnerability, as well as not to panic local communities in which those bases are located.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 4:58pm

    Reply to #3
    spotted turtle

    spotted turtle

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    Children free from infection?

    So far children seem to be resistant to COVID 19. I am looking for the age range of resistance. Infants, toddlers, preteens, teens? Has anyone seen any stats on ages? Thank you for all your help.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:04pm

    #37
    Myrto Ashe

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    Elderberry syrup and other herbal antivirals

    I’m reading Stephen Buhner’s Herbal Antivirals.

    Under “elder,” it says that it is directly antiviral. It doesn’t say anything about stimulating your immune system. It says it would be better if we used the whole plant, though some worry about side effects, but even the berries are useful against respiratory viruses, especially “enveloped” viruses. Elder inhibits viral replication, inhibits neuraminidase (which makes it more targeted to influenza), inhibits maturation of viruses, etc.

    Elder elixir is listed in small quantities in Buhner’s anti-coronavirus recipe, which mostly includes skullcap, knotweed, corcdyceps and dan shen (along with several other herbs). Some of the herbs in that recipe directly aim to reduce a cytokine overresponse.

    Another way to think about this, given the expected overwhelm of our medical services, if you have contact with someone with flu-like symptoms, and influenza is circulating, it might not be such a bad idea to take something that helps prevent influenza – especially if it can do double-duty.

    Disclaimer: I’m not an herbalist by any stretch, nor is this medical advice. I’m not saying you should take herbs, I’m saying that elderberry syrup has not been shown to worsen a cytokine storm. But the point that there is no research is well-taken.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:04pm

    #38
    Matties

    Matties

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    Numbers from Italy

    “”79 people are infected with coronavirus, located in 5 regions: 54 of them are in Lombardy, 17 in Veneto, 2 in Emilia Romagna, 2 in Lazio and 1 in Piedmont. At present, 33 people are hospitalised with symptoms, of which 18 are in intensive care, 11 are in home isolation. Two died, while one person was discharged from Spallanzani”, Head of Civil Protection Angelo Borrelli commented.

     

    We can now throw out the “only Asians getting it” theory. And is also not less disruptive. 18 are in intensive care of the 79 and 2 already died.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:18pm

    Reply to #37
    Galway87

    Galway87

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    Elderberry Syrup recommendations?

    For elderberry syrup, is there any particular brand/product that people would recommend?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:22pm

    Reply to #36
    kunga

    kunga

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    Pandemic Bonds, etc.

    Never heard of these, before.  The elite is a small club and I ain’t in it.  A bonds pay about 6.5% and riskier B bonds pay about 11.5%.  The restrictions on liquidating the funds are very severe.  Cue bono.  To liquidate it must be 12 weeks from pandemic start.  Also, at least two countries must have more than 20 dead.  Do you think there is pressure to fudge the numbers?  Just another financial instrument for the rich to screw the little people.  Brought to you courtesy of the World Bank.

     

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:29pm

    #39

    msnrochny

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    +60% of Covid-19 Patients with Pneumonia Won’t Survive

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/researchers-find-615-coronavirus-patients-severe-pneumonia-wont-survive

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:32pm

    #40
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Using Elderberry is NOT risk free

    Fortunately there is a lot written on this subject Myrto. Elderberry is known to stimulate an auto-immune response and if you dig around the papers written there are specific warnings against using it if you have certain medical conditions.

    But I get that this thing is currently all the rage in the organics and home remedy community. But let’s also use our heads. Some herbals can also be dangerous in some situations.

    Elderberry Benefits and Dangers for Patients

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:50pm

    Reply to #37
    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 251

    Elderberry

    I never tried this before, but just ordered some from my favorite supplement/organic food company in North Dakota.  Standardized Sambucous, Elderberry products, Nature’s Way brand.  Gummies, syrups and drinks.  Swansons-vitamins.com.  20% off this weekend, free ship over$50.  I have no connection with either of these companies beyond being a long time customer.  Good luck.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:51pm

    Reply to #39
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Your real risk is bacterial, not viral.

    Thank you for posting that link msnrochny. So this returns me to the post I wrote earlier in the thread that the real risk inherent in COVID 19 is actually the opportunistic bacterial infections that follow the onset of catching a virus.

    That means that for all intents and purposes there is very little difference between the end of life outcomes for a Corona virus patient and a person dying of AIDS.

    Both ultimately will succumb to respiratory failure caused by bacterial infections in their lungs.

    Ergo, our preparations to guard our own health need to be on reducing bacterial risks or learning to manage the symptoms once they appear.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:54pm

    #41

    dcm

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    Posts: 122

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    Oregano oil holds promise

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24779581/

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:54pm

    Reply to #37
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Kunga, let me refer you back to post #12

    You should take your own advice friend.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 5:57pm

    #42

    debu

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Pandemic Spread Timeline

    In addition to PP.com, my two other most trusted sources of information about the coronavirus pandemic are Dr. Roger Seheult at MedCram and Dr. John Campbell.

    Dr. Campbell did two Q&A’s yesterday which have been summarized by poster Xabier at Our Finite World as follows:

    Estimated timeline for spread:

    1/Establishment of serious community infection nearly everywhere… – over the next month or so.

    2/ Likely peak of contagion – June/July.

    3/ At least 60% of the population will be exposed. Children will be excellent ‘super-spreaders’,as on the whole it appears they will mostly not feel sick or even have any symptoms at all.

    4/ Good idea to get thermometer and oximeter to monitor your condition at home.

    Only way to limit exposure and give yourself the best chance – apart from excellent hygiene – is to self-isolate as much as possible starting NOW. Avoid public toilets.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:03pm

    #43
    MrPool

    MrPool

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    Joined: Feb 15 2020

    Posts: 2

    Has anyone seen thorough and easy to read data relating to length of time between seeking medical attention and developing a serious outcome, as broken down by gender?

    Not all, but many Western men seem to resist or delay visiting a health professional when possible.

    I’m wondering – is a delay visiting a doctor noticed in Chinese or other Asian cultures? Could a delay seeking medical advice/help influence the disparity between the number of males vs females who go on to develop serious complications?

    Obviously, an over-run hospital system affects this and clouds so many other aspects. In light of the new report that says 61.5% of severe pneumonia sufferers die and if you do catch this, is quick action meaningful?

    Just mulling over how actions can influence outcome.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:06pm

    #44
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Implied CFR?

    So from the latest study implying about two thirds of critical patients die we can for the first time make a decent clinical death rate prediction.

    With the study of over 60k cases saying 81% of the infections are mild, 14% severe and 5% critical; And this study saying 60% of critical patients will die, the implied CFR rate is 3% (60% of 5%).

    Honestly, seems a little on the low side considering the situation in Wuhan. Especially since the zerohedge post specifically states: “The researchers concluded that COVID-19 – or SARS-CoV-2, as they call it – is more lethal for vulnerable patients than SARS or MERS was.”

    Still, i think the 3% number has merit because it can be clinically proven. So can we agree that the Best Case Scenario here is a minimum death rate of 3%? I think that isn’t a wrong conclusion to draw since the research pertains to early patients – after all they needed time to study them and the patients needed time to go into the critical stage – meaning we can state with relative certainty (meaning beyond reasonable doubt) “If hospitals are not overloaded and all possible care is available, 3% of all cases will die.”

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:09pm

    Reply to #37
    ao

    ao

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    Galway 87, regarding elderberry, i'm probably shooting myself in the foot here

    The more I’ve recommended this stuff over the years, the more the price has gone up, at a rate faster than the rate of inflation.  I’ve been recommending the original black elderberry syrup, Sambucol, for many years.  I think I first recommended it on this site about 10 years ago.  It’s a proprietary extract developed by a virologist named Madeleine Mumcuoglu.  My recollection of its history is a little fuzzy but I thought that on the original packaging’s labeling, it had said she was Romanian.  Now it says she’s Israeli.  So perhaps she is of Romanian ancestry and emigrated to Israeli.  It doesn’t really matter but that change did catch my attention.  The sweetener has also changed over the years.  In addition, the company has been under different ownerships.  It may have been under Israeli ownership at one time but I’m not sure.  It’s labeled as a Product of France now but manufactured for and distributed by a US entity.  The entire evolution of ownership and formulation was recorded in boxes I had saved over the years but I tossed them when I retired, so now that information is lost to me.

    Any way, I’ve tried and recommended different formulations over the years and have always come back to this one because family, friends, and patients have always have the best success with this one. I typically double dose for the first two days of a suspected viral infection (taking it at the very earliest signs) and then taper off and discontinue after a week to 10 days.  It’s been my go-to treatment for viral infections such as colds and flus and I’ve been remarkably disease free for decades until this fall when I happened to let my supply run out and came down with an infection for about 2 weeks, worse than anything I can remember having had since young adulthood.  My wife was out of commission with this bug for a month, worse than I’d ever seen her.  We both commented that this was a very unusual infection since I never get sick and she very rarely gets sick.  NB – we have excellent nutrition.  Knowing the history of how the US government has experimented on its population with various infectious agents, unbeknownst to the populations, I wondered if this one was one of those examples.  If I recall correctly, the city of St. Paul, MN, for example, has purposely been exposed to infections on at least two occasions to study the spread of the disease through the populace.

    Just as an aside, a little secret I learned over the years is that veterinary medicine often leads human medicine.  For example, I learned about using lasers for tendon injuries from a veterinary publication, before laser was ever approved for that use in humans by the FDA.  I learned about elderberry extracts here:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20110721111803/http://www.mivelle.hu/sambucol/Effect%20in%20Chimpanzees.pdf

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:20pm

    Reply to #34
    Rajkumarijay

    Rajkumarijay

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    Agreed Nairobi - see study and excerpt

    The effect of Sambucol, a black elderberry-based, natural product, on the production of human cytokines: I. Inflammatory cytokines.

    Abstract

    Sambucus nigra L. products – Sambucol – are based on a standardized black elderberry extract. They are natural remedies with antiviral properties, especially against different strains of influenza virus. Sambucol was shown to be effective in vitro against 10 strains of influenza virus. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized study, Sambucol reduced the duration of flu symptoms to 3-4 days. Convalescent phase serum showed a higher antibody level to influenza virus in the Sambucol group, than in the control group. The present study aimed to assess the effect of Sambucol products on the healthy immune system – namely, its effect on cytokine production. The production of inflammatory cytokines was tested using blood – derived monocytes from 12 healthy human donors. Adherent monocytes were separated from PBL and incubated with different Sambucol preparations i.e., Sambucol Elderberry Extract, Sambucol Black Elderberry Syrup, Sambucol Immune System and Sambucol for Kids. Production of inflammatory cytokines (IL-1 beta, TNF-alpha, IL-6, IL-8) was significantly increased, mostly by the Sambucol Black Elderberry Extract (2-45 fold), as compared to LPS, a known monocyte activator (3.6-10.7 fold). The most striking increase was noted in TNF-alpha production (44.9 fold). We conclude from this study that, in addition to its antiviral properties, Sambucol Elderberry Extract and its formulations activate the healthy immune system by increasing inflammatory cytokine production. Sambucol might therefore be beneficial to the immune system activation and in the inflammatory process in healthy individuals or in patients with various diseases. Sambucol could also have an immunoprotective or immunostimulatory effect when administered to cancer or AIDS patients, in conjunction with chemotherapeutic or other treatments. In view of the increasing popularity of botanical supplements, such studies and investigations in vitro, in vivo and in clinical trials need to be developed.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11399518

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:25pm

    Reply to #37
    ao

    ao

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    kunga, it's usually wise to make recommendations based on experience

    The Sambucus is OK but, in my experience, not as good as the Sambucol.  It was produced as a way around the proprietary Sambucol formulation.  And the pills, gummies, and so on don’t seem to work very well.  The syrups, for whatever reason, work better.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:27pm

    #45
    vitalvision

    vitalvision

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    Posts: 12

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    Matties _So this is it

    I hate to put too much of my energy into the biowarfare theory of this but then I read your post and this one, added to the information Chris and Adam are providing, as well as other members, and I am dumbfounded.  I prefer to be optimistic as all costs, but we are at the entrance of a tunnel and we are not sure where or when the light will show up at the other end.  Damn.

    https://www.drtomreed.com/post/coronavirus-update-2-buckle-up

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:30pm

    Reply to #40

    Agent700

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 02 2014

    Posts: 41

    1+

    Elderberry Joint Swelling

    Yes, this is true! My 25 year old daughter went on twice daily elderberry syrup 2 weeks ago and has developed severe swelling of the joints in her fingers. This article just taught us the probable cause. Thank you!

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:37pm

    Reply to #31
    Peter Smith

    Peter Smith

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    Posts: 25

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    Military Quarantime

    We have almost no military people on mainland China UNLESS we had a ship docked in Hong Kong or Macau.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:54pm

    Reply to #40
    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

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    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 260

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    First I have heard of a problem

    You know, it could be coincidental, or she may have a particular issue with elderberries.  It is not usual to have such a response to elderberry syrup.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:54pm

    #46
    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

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    a bit more information on Sambucol, fwiw

    https://www.israel21c.org/israels-elderberry-remedy-sambucol-provides-solution-to-u-s-flu-vaccine-shortage/

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:58pm

    #47

    westcoastjan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 325

    6+

    Canadian Satire

    Cruise lines now offer deluxe coronavirus upgrade over basic norovirus package

    Could not help but laugh, sorry…

    Jan

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 6:59pm

    Reply to #37
    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 260

    The Buhner protocols are very good

    He is the most respected in this field in the country, his books and recommendations are great.  He has helped so many, including me, I take his Lyme protocol and it is seriously helping.  I bought his Herbal Antiviral book and highly recommend it.  Also, go to his facebook page, Stephen Buhner, and he gives the protocol for corona virus right there for free —  Lots of people say lots of things, some of which is likely useless or counterproductive, but for the herbs, Stephen Buhner is one you can trust.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:04pm

    Reply to #34
    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

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    Posts: 260

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    Elder syrup will not make corona virus worse

    Yes, there has been experience with this.  It is actually not the best herb, but it is certainly helpful and available.  Stephen Buhner addresses this in his book Herbal Antivirals.  If you have a more detailed question, go over to his facebook page and ask him.  But, do not put people off a readily available syrup that is helpful ( there are other herbs that should be added, such as Japanese knotweed, kudzu, but the elderberry is way better than nothing)

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:13pm

    Reply to #16
    SteveW

    SteveW

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    Joined: Jan 21 2010

    Posts: 156

    Performance on ice

    Thanks for posting that link to the excellent pairs skating. If you are an aficionado you must have seen what many consider the best ever ice dance performance. I’ve just realized that you probably have to be at least 50 to have seen it live as I did.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:13pm

    Reply to #47
    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

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    Jan, I laughed too

    Thank you for that.  One needs to have a sense of humor, even when faced with very serious situations.  My father was joking even as he was dying.  I hope I have the courage to do the same when my time comes.

    Before I even read your post, as a goof, I was going to call up Princess and see how their agents were handling the corona virus issue.  They proudly declare how they’re always there to help you but we ran into an issue a year ago and had to head to Columbia to catch a ship which we missed, through no fault of our own.  It was a 5 day nerve wracking experience that people can hardly believe when we tell them.  I’ll never forget the response of one of the four layers of entities we had to deal with for our travel insurance assistance: “You’re on your own.”  When the chips are down, unfortunately, this often becomes the case.  Government and corporate entities will tend to desert you.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:15pm

    Reply to #36
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    Investing

    dtrammel, hey I know this topic has probably been done to death on this blog and many others. Anyway, I’m not completely familiar with the ‘guaranteed fund’ but I would humbly suggest that you guys consider that in a currency crisis (our current trajectory), anything denominated in dollars or other fiat currencies may implode.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:22pm

    #48
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Posts: 329

    2+

    Ramping on prepping

    I am doing inventory, making final preps.  plan on doing final shopping in next 3 days.  After that will probably only shop with for hazmat protection. and limited at that.  I think the window is getting very very small.    I feel , i will never be prepped enough.  I have enough food to last maybe 3 mos.  But , at this point , I do not think its near enough.    I am wondering about water?  I am not sure if I should have a seed bank and be planning trying to supply food out past 6mos.. What if this gets really ugly.. What is the plan for 6 mos out and no food on the store shelves.. worst case scenario..?   I do not have enough sun and enough property for a garden.   Hydroponics?  what is easy and fast to grow?? is this window shut on these supplies? too late?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:31pm

    Reply to #34
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Posts: 289

    Well done Rajkumarijay

    Thanjs Raj. That was a nice find and reinforces my assertion that Elderberry preparations should be sidelined until there is better evidence that their use will not aggravate a bad situation by possibly causing a cytokine storm.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:38pm

    Reply to #32
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Posts: 77

    so this is what?

    Matties, I too am fascinated by the potential origins of the virus. Most others should be as well for obvious reasons, including that such a concern is epidemiology 101. Nonetheless, there are some things about your post that don’t make sense. Just because a research lab gets funded by a Chinese source doesn’t mean they are doing biological warfare work. Scientists nowadays spend half their time scrounging around for funding.  The other thing is, most virologists make variants.  The world is swimming in genetically engineered virii for research purposes (rightly or wrongly). For example scientists have long been mutating both corona virus host receptor sites and receptor binding sites in order to understand binding specificity etc… Presumably much of this well-documented peer-reviewed research is done without nefarious intent. Virus sequence also mutates on its own all the time. A furin site (Arg-X-X-Arg) is pretty short, just like 3 matching numbers in a row will never be a smoking gun match for somebody’s 10-digit phone number. What you presented isn’t a bombshell necessarily, but I will say I didn’t read the paper yet referenced by Natural News. It is my understanding that virii often insert protease cleavage sites in order to take advantage of host proteases to help entry into the host cell. Incidentally, do we know exactly (without speculation) what was sent from the Winnepeg lab?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:41pm

    #49
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Lots of detailed advice from virologists

    Stumbled upon this in Dr. Ian Mackay’s twitter feed – not only does it have some advice from people who study this sort of thing for a living, but it echoes much of what we have been discussing. One article leads to another – you could spend hours reading…

    https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 7:46pm

    #50
    nordicjack

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    elderberry and cytokines

    I was familiar with the increased production of cytokines by the immune enhancing effects of elderberry.   I am not sure if this relates to cytokine storm – normal increase is practical and necessary in disease states.    So, just because something is immune enhancing it does not necessarily translate to over stimulation , though it is possible.   In fact, what I find in natural remedies, being synergistic, its more like immuno-modulating.    But, as things develop , emperical  experience posted back here would be helpful,  hope no one has to be the guinea pig.  But, I do not believe this will cause cytokine storm – i think it will make your system function at its correct response.. and not more..  Additionally, it also reduces viral replication.  So it will ultimately keep it from entering all the cells , allowing the system to know when to shut off.  If it really caused over-excitation  , then people taking it with no cause would have some symptoms of cytokine reactions when they are not ill.  I would highly doubt that cytokines will be elevated by the immune system absent of an infection..  And for those who seem to have some sort of “reaction” after taking this,  may have an underlying disease infection like Lyme disease

    One other thing.  Vitamin d was tied to cytokine storm in H1N1.  So it seems to be immune modulating.. So, there are other factors in play here.. and then calcuium is related to that as well . and calcium and magnesium are immune modulators as well , most US people are deficient in all three.   then there is B6 which has been implicated in cytokine storm and levels are tied to vitamin d.    b6 like folate can damage the nervous system in vitamin b12 is inadequate.. So. make sure you load downline with this process..  B12 first.. vitamin d with calc and magnesium and then b6 and folate.   vitamin C is always important.. but I do not think it functions without proper folate levels.. hence proper b12 and b6 levels ( both depleted by high stress life style and sugar diet )

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 8:07pm

    #51
    Alexis

    Alexis

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    Thanks all!

    Thanks for the stock ideas and suggestions, lots to think over and research! There are so many hidden things with finances it’s almost surreal when you start peeling the layers. 🤪

    on another laughing note…. my 4yo twins and 1yr old got into my toilet paper 48 roll stash and made a “winter wonderland” 🤣🤣🤣 Your stash is safe from no one! Lol

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 8:28pm

    #52

    Waterdog14

    Status: Member

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    Posts: 138

    6+

    Supply chain disruptions - Pharmaceuticals

    My brother is a pharmacist in AZ.  I emailed him an excerpt from the PP site about the pharmaceutical industry’s vulnerability to China-dependent supply chains.  He replied:

    “I read the same info in a pharmacy journal. We might be in trouble. Have you noticed all the recalls lately from carcinogens in china-produced meds? I challenge you to find ranitidine anywhere in the U.S. right now.”

    The window is closing QUICKLY.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 8:29pm

    #53
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Cytokine storm issue is major

    I am glad we are having this discussion, and agree that it would be nice to have a place where we can record our experiences. For example, what herbs might the Chinese patients be using so far? I wonder if there are any successes over there?

    I read the numerous comments on Stephen Buhner’s Facebook page (I can’t leave a comment). I will ask my friends who know a bit more about herbs re: the cytokine storm. There are apparently no contraindications to the whole coronavirus protocol, but the whole protocol is $300 or so if you buy enough for the 2 weeks of possible/probable illness. And then how many family members will you also buy these for?

    This brings me back to the idea that if you have a medical professional you respect, it would be great to ask them now for an opinion that is individualized to your particular case. True, TNF alpha is stimulated by elderberry syrup, though it is also stimulated by high blood glucose. Might that be playing a role? Might tincture be better? Might a lower sugar version be preferable? Or taken with a meal so your glucose doesn’t skyrocket?

    We know outcomes are worse with COVID in diabetics (and cardiovascular disease). Is TNF alpha a part of that? Would it be important to take the whole Buhner COVID protocol rather than just the elderberries as it contains herbs specifically against cytokine storm?

    But TNF alpha inhibitors have not emerged (yet?) as helpful, so perhaps an herbal TNF stimulator wouldn’t be harmful along with some herbs that control the cytokine response. OTOH if you already have an autoimmune disease, especially one that can disable you if it flares up, say ulcerative colitis, should you take a chance on the COVID without herbs? Isn’t this the reason conventional MDs say not to try herbs, or DIY, or anything other than doctor advice?

    It looks like TNF alpha is important in developing antibodies to a microbe. Perhaps if you can increase it a little but not too much you are actually ahead of the game?

    Bacterial pneumonia is not the only thing that kills COVID victims. In fact I don’t think I have seen a proper description of why this kills people except that there is multiple organ failure and of course if you can’t access ECMO, the fact that alveoli fill with mucus and cells would kill you. Happy to read any articles you see on the topic.

    All that to say, much conjecture. Not enough experts. Experts are limited in what they can say by potential legal concerns. Perhaps use your intuition on this one.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 8:36pm

    Reply to #52
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    1+

    The problem with ranitidine is not contamination

    The carcinogens in ranitidine preparations evidently are not from accidental contamination but an inevitable way that the ranitidine molecule breaks down over time and perhaps in the body (source is interview with pharmacist from Valisure on Dr. Peter Attia’s website). So it would be best if we don’t see it reappear anywhere. Given the availability of other generics for the same indication, the whole world should stop manufacturing ranitidine.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 8:43pm

    #54
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    Time to sell your gold.

    As the end of February nears we are entering the timing band for gold prices to reverse and start a long overdue corrective decline. Provided the gold price does not close this month above 1660 then a reversal should be anticipated which would be in line with the widespread drops of most industrial commodities.

    As the year progresses we will see falling demand for gold across the globe and rising demand for dollars as the deflationary impact of the current economic slowdown in China expands to other countries.

    I am not writing this to alienate the gold bugs in the room (which can’t be avoided since they are often a sensitive group) but rather as a warning that the technical picture is now leaning towards a correction and further upside will be limited.

    Furthermore, as cracks begin to develop in debt markets it’s likely rates will begin to creep back up as risk rises while treasury bonds also face an impending corrective near term decline.

    So watch out, the gold bears are coming! (And the bond vigilantes too).

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 8:51pm

    Reply to #36

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    1+

    If It Gets To That Point

    dtrammel, hey I know this topic has probably been done to death on this blog and many others. Anyway, I’m not completely familiar with the ‘guaranteed fund’ but I would humbly suggest that you guys consider that in a currency crisis (our current trajectory), anything denominated in dollars or other fiat currencies may implode.

    Mr Curious, I believe the name was just a way to say, “Hey, all you are going to get is one mere percent of interest”, not that it had any sort of implied guarantee.

    If the markets and the financial system gets to the point that the dollar implodes then everything is going south. My point to my recommendation was that if the market suffers a serious correction, in the 15-20% range, as I expect it will this year once people realize the supply chain problems, then having your Roth, IRA or 401K in a non stock and bond option should minimize your losses.

    You’ll miss out on the next few weeks of continuing unrational growth but then if the market corrects, and your portfolio is worth 50% what it is now, that marginal gain won’t matter.

    If a full blown currency crisis hits (which I don’t think it will) then only cashing out Alexis’ Roth, taking the tax hit, will give them any amount of money. I don’t think they need to go that far. You are free to disagree.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 8:57pm

    Reply to #48

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

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    1+

    Worst Case

    What is the plan for 6 mos out and no food on the store shelves.. worst case scenario..?

    Eat the Rich. I understand long pork is good with the right barbecue sauce and some spices.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 9:03pm

    Reply to #53
    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

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    Not that expensive

    It is expensive if someone else tinctures it for you but, first, you do not need to tincture.  Buhner mostly doesnt for himself, you can just stir the dried herbs into juice.  I have done this with lyme herbs.  Second, if you want tinctures and have a family, just start the tinctures now.  Most of those needed are inexpensive, for example, a pound of kudzu is $20ish.  SO, the reason people would be it pre-made is that they are only buying for one and buying a pound each of the various herbs is more than they want.  But, especially if you are buying for a family, just buy the dry herbs.  Then you will have enough, and store the excess dried herbs in glass jars to use year after next for the flu virus, as there is a big overlap in the protocols.  https://1stchineseherbs.com/kudzu-root-ge-gen-nuherbs-brand-cut-form-1lb/      And here is hte Japanese knotweed,  https://1stchineseherbs.com/japanese-bushy-knotweed-root-hu-zhang-cut-form-1-lb/  many people tincture the cut forms that I linked, Buhner says to tincture it ground up more…. so.. a matter of preference maybe.  The cut is fresher, but more powdered has more surface area.

    It is very easy, buy the cut, not the powder if making tinctures, weigh out 1/4 pound of dried plant, put in a quart jar, add 20 ounces ( or until the jar is full) of vodka. put a lid on it, shake every now and then, it will be ready in a month and it will be enough for 2 easy, so do another jar for the other 2 in the family, etc…. Basically, if you buy the herbs you would easily have enough herbs for 8 people, for alot less money than buying ready made tinctures ( do not tincture the cordyceps this way, just go ahead and take that as the powder, plain, it tastes good, or put it in capsules )

    But, you can also just buy the powdered herbs and take them that way, stirred into juice or encapsulate them, so buy empty 00 capsules.

    The company I gave the links to is one of his recommended sources for herbs

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 9:31pm

    Reply to #53
    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

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    2+

    herbs if low on funds

    If I was low on funds,  I would not buy the whole protocol but maybe just the “best of” that I could afford, so I might pick japanese knotweed; kudzu; and salvia miltiorrhiza, chinese skullcap, licorice  ( this is off the top of my head looking at the section in Herbal Antivirals and what looks specific for this. do not buy what I might do, read it yourself.  The point is not to let the striving for the perfect get in the way of the good.  Dont do nothing.  Pick out a few of the hardest hitting antivirals and cyticine storm inhibitters specific to corona virus’s)

    and boneset herb for boneset tea

     

    edit: I just went and bought the herbs I was short on to make these tinctures and spent $148, that is because I already have many herbs at home I use for my Lyme treatment.  So, I will be able to now make some to share with other family.  I do find that it is easier to have others take the tinctures, already mixed together, than to stir alot of dried herbs into juice like I will do for myself.  Now I need to go get some vodka.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 9:55pm

    Reply to #54
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    sell you gold

    Nairobi, you don’t understand gold. There’s a floor on the price, which represents the cost it takes to pull it out of the ground.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:02pm

    Reply to #54
    ao

    ao

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    Nairobi, in what form are you selling gold

    I almost never sell any of my physical gold.  I just use major dips to add to my position.  With the recent rapid run-up, a minor correction is certain likely.  But Indian wedding season is coming up and rumors are mounting of an impending currency change.  I think I’ll just hang on to mine.  I’ve never been a trader, just a long term holder, and it’s served me well.  YMMV.

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:09pm

    Reply to #48
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

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    Nordicjack, grow sprouts! Up your food and water stash if possible.

    A variety of sprouting seeds are affordable and easily grown on a window sill in low-light conditions. They are very nutritious and can be used in a variety of dishes raw or sautéed. Try to up your preps to 6 months if possible with some inexpensive additions (e.g., rice, oats, beans, potatoes, peanut butter, raisins or other dried fruit, spices). Near expiration date poultry and meats are often discounted 30% or more and are perfectly fine for freezing, canning, or making multiple meals including soups.  If you can get some deals on produce (e.g., inexpensive carrots for juicing) these can be dehydrated for longer term storage using little space. Store water in every available clean container; place under beds, behind the sofa, in closets, etc. for stealth and efficient storage; consider getting a water bob as a back-up; get a LifeStraw family gravity filter ($70) and/or personal filter ($20); or get a Sawyer mini for about $20 at Target or Walmart; or get a Berkey water filter (cost varies) if you can afford it.

    Between climate related food shortages, Covid-2019 pandemic, supply chain and economic failures, my personal concern is that the S will be hitting the fan in full force within 3 months, so I need to prep for 6 months at minimum to get through what I hope is the worst of it.

    Regardless, anything we can do is probably more than most people and will be a great advantage–but may still be not enough.  We each do the best we can with what we’ve got. Nordicjack, you’re apparently very informed, motivated and capable, so you’ll probably weather this better than most. Hang in there!

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:15pm

    #55
    yagasjai

    yagasjai

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 18 2009

    Posts: 83

    5+

    Colloidal Silver Nebulizer

    This thread is reminding me that Chris said something a while ago about building his own colloidal silver nebulizer and I am wondering if he has any additional information to share about that?

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  • Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - 10:29pm

    Reply to #54
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    Speculative gold, not physical gold

    Good question ao. I would be referring to pure speculative positions of course. There is no point selling physical gold since the inconvenience between differences in discounts and premiums makes the exercise mostly pointless. Especially if price is going to turn around and just go back up in the not so distant future. I think it will run higher down the road so I am only referring to trading and not buy-and-hold (which I don’t put much stock in anyway since that is also mostly an inefficient waste of time). My post was just a heads up that the odds are quite high we begin a price reversal next month so if you were an accumulator you may want to hold off until we get back down to a good support level and therefore a more appealing price point.

    To Mr Curious, you may say I don’t understand gold but I have been a buyer and seller for about 40 years already. I know a few things.

    As far as there being a floor on price you can forget that since the market does not care. There is also a cost to extracting and selling natural gas but have you seen nat gas futures lately? Odds are very good it will drop near 1.00 this year.

    How about crude oil extracted in Canada? Dirt cheap. For that matter look at a chart of crude oil futures and the price projects down to nearly depression lows of 20 bucks a barrel. It’s coming.

    How would I know that? Well it’s already written in the charts. The only thing that was unknown was what would cause it to happen but we have our answer now and its lost demand brought about by a global pandemic.

    As far as the Indian Wedding season goes I think I will take my chances and sell since it will be a bust this year. Who will go to weddings during a virus outbreak?

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 1:03am

    Reply to #32
    chrissie.sugden

    chrissie.sugden

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    Posts: 11

    1+

    Re this is it

    I hope everyone has watched this video. Looks like conclusive evidence from peer reviewed papers that the virus was bio engineered in the US and the know how sold to China. A chimera of SARS and HIV and engineered to be more contagious. The evidence is presented by the Professor who wrote the anti bio weapon regulations that have been adopted internationally (haha). https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-20-full-transcript-smoking-gun-interview-prof-frances-boyle-coronavirus-bioweapons.html

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 1:09am

    Reply to #48
    Snow Eater

    Snow Eater

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    Posts: 28

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    Sprout lentils!

    Dry green lentils are a very cheap and easy thing to sprout! I use a mason jar with cheese cloth over the top. Rinse the lentils twice a day and tip it into a tupperware dish or something to drain. Easy peasy.

    Mung beans are great too!

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 4:56am

    #56
    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    3+

    Thank you

    Thank you for helping mankind…

    Departments of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
    Microbiology and Immunology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
    National Center for Toxicological Research, Food and Drug Administration, Jefferson, AR, USA
    Department of Cell Biology and Physiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
    Marsico Lung Institute/Cystic Fibrosis Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
    Institute for Research in Biomedicine, Bellinzona, Switzerland Institute of Microbiology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
    Department of Cancer Immunology and AIDS, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston Massachusetts, USA
    Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China

    Thank you, you people who worked on this humanitarian research.

    Vineet D. Menachery, Boyd L. Yount Jr, Kari Debbink, Sudhakar Agnihothram, Lisa E.Gralinski, Jessica A. Plante, Rachel L. Graham, Trevor Scobey, Xing-Yi Ge8, Eric F.Donaldson, Scott H. Randell, Antonio Lanzavecchia, Wayne A. Marasco, Zhengli-LiShi, and Ralph S. Baric

    Thanks a lot…

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 6:38am

    Reply to #54
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

    Nairobi, what is the speculative form of gold you trade in

    I’m always curious how people trade PMs.

    With regards to buy-and-hold being “an inefficient waste of time”, I’d have to disagree with you there.  Financial research, real world examples, and personal experience have all shown that, wisely chosen, buy-and-hold strategies outperform trading strategies on the average.  I know a little old lady with a blue collar income who dealt exclusively in buy-and-hold strategies with cash who became a millionaire.  Her positions never lost money … never.  At the other end of the spectrum is Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger.  And from my own personal experience, I learned the positions I chose well and patiently held until projected targets were reached or exceeded did the best and made me financially independent.  On the other hand, I know lots of folks who are traders (and very smart to boot) who’ve had to throw in the towel.  As just one example, look at Hugh Hendry closing up his hedge fund (and moving into property development, an area known for its distinct lack of liquidity).  Lots of hedge fund managers have had their clocks cleaned while that little old lady watched her portfolio steadily grow and grow.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 7:08am

    #57

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    3+

    A few headlines...Lockdowns and shortages

    Taiwan bans its healthcare professionals from traveling abroad

    Health Minister Chen Shih-chung (陳時中), who heads the CECC, said that with the current shortage of manpower in the health system, Taiwan cannot afford to put its medical personnel into 14-day quarantine when they return from trips abroad.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3880226

    ===============================

    S. Korea leader: ‘Unprecedented’ steps needed to fight virus

    Moon said his government had increased its anti-virus alert level by one notch to “Red,” the highest level. The step was last taken in 2009 to guard against a novel influenza outbreak that killed more than 260 people in South Korea. Under the highest alert level, authorities can order the temporary closure of schools and reduce the operation of public transportation and flights to and from South Korea.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3880253

    ========================

    Italy

    • 11 towns, 50,000 people, placed in lockdown.
    • Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable “health belt” around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.

      – Schools closed in LombardyVeneto, and in Trentino Alto Adige regions.

      – Universities closed in Piedmont and Emilia Romagna regions.

      – Carnival in Venice and all sport and public events in Veneto cancelled.

      – All public and private events, including sportcultural, and religious events in Lombardy cancelled. Movie theaters closed.

      – “I think these three cases that have no contact with a primary carrier show how this virus is now ubiquitous so, as with flu symptoms, you get it and don’t know who you got it from” said Veneto governon Luca Zaia who, in a separate comment, said “we are worried, drastic measures are needed.”

    • https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    ======================================

    Iran shuts schools, cultural centres as coronavirus kills six

    A sixth death from the coronavirus has been reported in Iran as authorities in more than a dozen affected provinces ordered the closure of schools, universities and cultural centres in a bid to contain the outbreak.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/iran-shuts-schools-cultural-centres-coronavirus-kills-200223000740899.html

    =========================

    Coronavirus: Turkey and Pakistan close borders with Iran

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-turkey-and-pakistan-close-borders-with-iran/a-52488676

    ===========================

    Coronavirus outbreak leaves Hong Kong funeral homes facing coffin shortage

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3051924/coronavirus-killer-disease-leaves-hong-kong

    ========================

    6 toll gates closed in Japan amid virus outbreak

    https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200223_21/

    ==========================

    DIY virus protection: Hong Kongers making own masks amid shortages

    ===========================

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 7:15am

    #58

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    4+

    Coronavirus is now a pandemic, says Leuven specialist

    The outbreak of the Covid-19 coronavirus has now reached the proportions of a pandemic, according to Professor Marc Van Ranst, the epidemiologist in charge of the reference laboratory at Leuven university hospital.

    A pandemic occurs when an epidemic spreads to include a large area, up to and sometimes including entire continents. Examples from history include the Black Death, Spanish flu, HIV and the avian flu H5N1.

    Covid’s predecessor among the coronaviruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) stopped short of changing from a series of local epidemics into a pandemic. According to Prof. Van Ranst, Covid has already passed that point.

    “I think the criteria have now been filled to declare a pandemic,” he said. “This is an epidemic transmissible from human to human, which is currently present in several countries on different continents. So we may now speak of a pandemic,” he said.

    https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/96505/covid-19-is-now-a-pandemic-says-leuven-specialist-van-ranst-epidemic-sars/

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 7:53am

    #59
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

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    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 57

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    Eye opening Bloomberg headline

     

    Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse If Banks Don’t Act Fast

    The Wait for China to Shake Off Virus Nears Key Moment
    Even Without a Case, Africa May Be a Big Victim of Coronavirus
    The Virus Is Interrupting Supply Chains From Watches to Lobsters
    If true, the market gurus who invested hundreds of billions this year are going to need psychotherapy to discover how greed blinded them to the obvious. For the members of this website, a moment of schadenfreude. Did you buy your puts?
    I have been investing for more than 50 years and in a bear market even the best stocks go down. Hello,  fang companies.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 8:37am

    Reply to #36
    BillL

    BillL

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    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    2+

    d...

    With what we see transpiring world wide, many are waking up to the fact that globalism isn’t all that it was advertised to be.  Supply shortages are happening.

    The off shoring of our communities, industry, etc. that used to be self-sufficient and local is gone…for now.   If one can’t see that today, they never will.

    This imo is shaping up to be the final harvesting of what’s left of any of the regular guys/gals wealth, health and what freedom we have left.  What group of humans does that for enjoyment?

    While many carry on with out a care, a few more are realizing that ‘”something is just not right”.  Hopefully, they will recognize the need to prepare sooner than later.

    On a brighter note, we have a stellar jay at our feeder this morning.  His absence for the last few months was missed.  On a stranger note, we had Eastern Blue Jays show up this past fall.  I am west of the divide.  They were a long way from home.

     

    “We are all just prisoners here of our own device”   Eagles…Hotel California

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 8:42am

    Reply to #54
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 1913

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    extraction costs & floors

    Mr Curious-

    I don’t think extraction cost puts a floor under gold.  That is true for the “ephemeral” commodities (like, say, wheat, or oil, most of which is consumed almost as fast as it comes out), but its not true for gold, which doesn’t actually get consumed.

    So if we say that annual gold production is 2500 tons, and current above ground supplies are perhaps 190,000 tons.  Even if production stopped tomorrow, its still less than 1% of total above ground supply.

    Certainly buying something for less than extraction cost seems like a pretty good deal, so it might put an “emotional” floor, but it isn’t a supply & demand floor, the way (say) it would be for wheat.

    If price of wheat drops below production cost, well, that lasts for just one season.  Wheat gets consumed.  Next season, wheat isn’t produced any longer.  Presto – price rises.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 8:52am

    Reply to #39
    BillL

    BillL

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    Zero hedge...and a grain of salt please.

    FWIW…the main value at ZH is the commenters.

    I read the headlines, very occasionally read an article then head for the comments.

    That is where you find the real “meat and potatoes” info.  Is it all useful?  No.  I want to hear what others (while web is available) from all over have to say about the current bs.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 9:36am

    Reply to #48
    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    long pork...not funny to some in Butte, Mt.

    FWIW…https://ringsssss.com/uncategorized/montana-man-arrested-after-his-best-selling-jerky-is-found-to-be-made-of-human-meat-2/

    Satire?  Kind of looks sketchy to me.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 9:50am

    Reply to #48
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    mystery meat

    Satire or not, that issue is going to come up more often moving forward. Every other living creature will be near exterminated but there will be 8 billion hungry people at the dinner table….

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 9:51am

    #60

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    1+

    Want A Bite?

    beef jerky

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 10:05am

    Reply to #54
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

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    Floor on the price

    Dave, Although it would probably not be worth either of our time, but I could still challenge you to find any time in monetary history (let’s just say the last 500 years) where the value/price of gold dipped below extraction costs for more than a very temporary blip. It doesn’t. The “you can’t eat gold” argument only works in a society that is 100% barter and doesn’t use money. The production of gold and pretty much every other commodity is completely dependent upon the oil used to pull it and that oil is not free. Yes, it is a supply and demand floor because there is a voracious global demand for gold and no, I am not emotional about it. In fact, I am fully aware that neither of our opinions matter that much and this paragraph is starting to become too long..

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 10:25am

    Reply to #57
    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

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    Origins and many questions

    Do we know with absolute certainty that this virus or some form of it did not already exist outside of China, without notice, in December 2019?  Being mild for most people, it being cold and flu season anyway, who would likely think that their virus was anything “special?”  Unless perhaps you had SARS previously (living in China?) and are actually re-infected and having a more serious response?  I wonder because this past mid-December, I had a respiratory virus that seemed different than my usual experience of a cold.  I missed six days of work (unheard of for me) before winter break and 3 weeks of CrossFit with lingering laryngitis and low energy, and a nasty bout of conjunctivitis.  (That’s when I called the doctor). For me it stayed mostly upper respiratory, but who would think of anything out of the ordinary?  Now I am wondering if it could have been a mild bout of some newer virus?  I think it’s unlikelyto be SARS Cov2, that many more people would be sick by now and no one else in my family got sick, but…. how do we really know?  Hopefully I won’t find out the hard way next time….

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 10:45am

    Reply to #26
    Jay Pine

    Jay Pine

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    Iran

    Hi Nairobi,

    China has quite a close relationship with Iran as part of it’s belt and road initiative. Was probably brought over by a Chinese worker in Qon and then spread – probably over the last month given number dead. Click/use below link for info on the  agreement made 3 years ago:

    https//oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Iran-To-Become-Essential-Hub-In-Chinas-Belt-And-Road-Initiative.html

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 12:18pm

    Reply to #51
    ao

    ao

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    Posts: 1243

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    Alexis, here's some investing advice I give to newbies

    First, no matter how busy you are, try to educate yourself.  NO ONE will take care of your money like you will.  The investment field is filled with MANY wolves and far fewer sheep dogs.  If you do decide on a financial advisor, a fee only advisor will be less expensive in the long run than one who takes an annual percentage of your assets and/or is selling you products such as mutual funds or annuities.  To educate yourself, an excellent starting place is the various Wall Street Journal guides which can be picked up for $3 to $5 each used from Amazon.  They include:

    The WSJ Guide to Understanding Money & Investing

    The WSJ Guide to Understanding Personal Finance

    The WSJ Guide to Understanding Money & Investing

    Second, do not cash in your Roth or IRA or 401Ks or any other tax deferred retirement account but do try to build a portfolio (include physical precious metals) outside of them as well.  Many folks here got worried back in the time of the financial crisis, cashed out their retirement accounts (with the ones under 59 1/2 taking a big penalty) and, truth be told, if most were honest with themselves, wound up regretting that decision when they missed out on a lot of big gains in the stock market.

    Third, a very simple strategy recommended by Warren Buffet to his wife as to how to manage their money in the event of his demise was to put 90% of their money in equities (i.e. stocks) in a low cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% in cash in Treasuries.  Vanguard is an example of a company with very low expense ratios that would qualify for a low cost fund.  In terms of indices, my version of Buffet’s advice that I recommended for my children (after putting a little bit of money into physical silver in the form of US silver eagles each year) was the Russell 1000 Value Index in the form of 90% of their retirement funds in the Vanguard Russell 1000 Value ETF (VONV).  The reasons include (1) the fund company is Vanguard, a well known, reputable, large company with a long track record of being friendly to the retail investor, (2) it is an ETF which has a lower expense ratio (0.08%) than a mutual fund (which means it will cost you very little to own), (3) it has an excellent track record compared to most of the other indices when I was comparing indices (with a 12.02% return since its inception), (4) it has a 2.5% dividend yield (with dividends being a key component of good, steady growth), (5) it is a large and liquid fund with good trading volume and a low bid/ask spread (i.e. the difference in the cost between buying and selling it) of 0.03% (meaning it is easier and cheaper to buy and sell), and (6) it has a reasonable price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.9 (meaning it is reasonably valued).  I’d probably dollar cost average in buying into it though so if the market takes a dive, the adverse impact to you is muted.  The other 10% I recommended they put into cash in high interest paying CDs or high yield savings accounts.   For any non-qualified funds (i.e. money not in a retirement account that they may need in the shorter term), I recommended a high yield savings account such as in an online bank.  They’re not interested in learning investing to any great degree at this stage so this is a relatively safe and simple strategy for investing their money.

    If you don’t understand any of these terms, look them up on Investopedia.  Looking up definitions can help you learn anything from investing to law but it’s always surprising to me how few people actually take the time and effort look up what they don’t understand.  Personally, I’ve learned a tremendous amount that way.

    Best of luck.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 1:38pm

    #61
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 329

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    I expect massive inflation

    When resources are low – inflation is natural.  How to hedge with the inflation.  I expect home values to soar.  If not building materials, fixture , appliances and more all come from china.   Car prices and parts should soar as well.. And then electronics are a given.. And even things like the coffee cup you drink from will be in low supply,   I expect massive inflation.  How to hedge other than own or buy a home?   Cash savings are vulnerable and of course stock market is vulnerable.  Perhaps in you are invested in medical services and hospitals , you will be ok .  But who will really foot those bills?  you know the insurance companies will sing the blues and expect bail outs.  I am not sure they would pay out on this as they would not pay life insurance in such a condition of pandemic or social unrest.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 1:48pm

    #62

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    1+

    Coronavirus latest: Queensland health expert warns of ‘probable pandemic’ as untraceable virus clusters emerge

    Coronavirus latest: Queensland health expert warns of ‘probable pandemic’ as untraceable virus clusters emerge

    But as hot spots emerge around the globe, trouble finding each source — the first patient who sparks every new cluster — might signal the disease has begun spreading too widely for tried-and-true public health steps to stamp it out.

    “A number of spot fires, occurring around the world is a sign that things are ticking along, and what we are going to have here is probably a pandemic,” said Ian Mackay, who studies viruses at the University of Queensland……………………………………………

    And it’s almost certainly being spread by people who show such mild symptoms that no one can tell, said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

    “If that’s the case, all of these containment methods are not going to work,” Adalja said. “It’s likely mixed in the cold and flu season all over the place, in multiple countries” and gone unnoticed until someone gets severely ill.

    These milder symptoms are good news “in terms of not as many people dying,” said Mackay, of Australia. “But it’s really bad news if you are trying to stop a pandemic,” he added.

    https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/coronavirus-latest-queensland-health-expert-warns-of-probable-pandemic-as-untraceable-virus-clusters-emerge-c-712745

    ==============================

    Morrison Government fails to stop boats, despite coronavirus (Australia)

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrison-government-fails-to-stop-boats-despite-coronavirus,13626

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 1:55pm

    #63

    westcoastjan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 325

    3+

    Breaking news - Canada

    This just popped up on CBC news:

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/passenger-aboard-air-canada-flight-to-vancouver-from-montreal-tests-positive-for-covid-19-1.5473283

     

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 1:57pm

    Reply to #7
    abeland1

    abeland1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 16 2020

    Posts: 2

    1+

    bacterial load

    Using silver ions to reduce the body’s bacterial load would seem to be a good strategy.
    At last, some honest research and testing of ionic silver. Note that electrically produced ionic silver outperforms silver compounds by a wide margin. The action of silver ions piercing the cell walls and killing staph bacteria are shown here by electron microscope photos:
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2292600/?report=classic
    You can make ionic colloidal silver, now better known as EIS (electrically isolated silver). There is no need to be at the mercy of a snake oil salesman. Learn how here:
    https://www.goldismoney2.com/threads/the-art-of-making-colloidal-silver-silver-ions-electrically-isolated-silver.61973/

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 2:04pm

    #64

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 844

    4+

    Re -Breaking News Canada

    So the guy has been walking around Vancouver for a week?  Ironic how everyone now looks like a potential carrier.  It would be so much easier if people developed spots or a tick or something.

     

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 2:12pm

    #65
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    Moscow targets Chinese with raids, facial recognition tech amid coronavirus fears

    Moscow targets Chinese with raids amid coronavirus fears

    “Moscow officials ordered police raids of hotels, dormitories, apartment buildings and businesses to track down the shrinking number of Chinese people remaining in the city. They also authorized the use of facial recognition technology to find those suspected of evading a 14-day self-quarantine period upon their arrival in Russia.”

    ‘”Conducting raids is an unpleasant task, but it is necessary, for the potential carriers of the virus as well,” Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a statement outlining various methods to find and track Chinese people the city approved as a virus prevention strategy.”

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-russia-china-1.5473035

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 2:14pm

    #66

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    4+

    Some of the world's biggest economies are on the brink of recession

    Some of the world’s biggest economies are on the brink of recession

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

    ==========================

    The ECB Is in For a Coronavirus Shocker

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-coronavirus-shocker-183607860.html

    =======================

    Economic impact of coronavirus outbreak deepens

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/23/economic-impact-of-coronavirus-outbreak-deepens

    ===========================

    Coronavirus puts global recovery at risk, IMF tells G20

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/24/business/economy-business/coronavirus-puts-global-recovery-risk-imf-tells-g20/#.XlL4Q47YrnE

    =======================

    Hong Kong Companies Have No Safety Net in Fight for Survival

    Hong Kong is being threatened by a “Tsunami-like” cataclysm, the city’s finance chief has warned, as the new coronavirus devastates businesses already hobbled by months of anti-government protests. The financial hub’s lack of a bankruptcy process will only exacerbate the pain.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/hong-kong-companies-have-no-safety-net-in-fight-for-survival

    ================

    With Gold Surging, Miners Face Payouts Versus Production Dilemma

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-surging-miners-face-payouts-133000410.html

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 3:49pm

    Reply to #61
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    2+

    Don't hold your breathe waiting for real estate to appreciate

    Nordicjack, just ask yourself how valuable a condo becomes once people fully understand the danger of living in close quarters with one another.

    Is there really much difference between a cruise ship and an apartment complex when it comes to using common areas like the front entrance, stairwells, elevators and hallways?

    Condos could become unsaleable.

    Private home prices could rise though for that same reason. But farms and country homes could actually fall in value if the Chinese experience is anything to go by.

    The reason is checkpoints and road closures. Once out of the city you may be unable to return very easily and while that sounds great to preppers it would discourage the average person who is not ready for isolation and no supply lines.

    The other thing is employment numbers are going to take a big hit as this pandemic develops. No income equals no buyers. On the contrary, sales will rise as homeowners try to escape debt.

    Supply and demand will dictate what happens next but I can tell you I am not in the mood to buy anything in such an unstable environment and I suspect many others will be thinking the same way.

    It looks like we will finally see debt deflation, economic slowdown leading to recession, falling consumption, rising unemployment and risk adjustment by lenders.

    That means bank rates will go up to account for an environment of rising defaults. And that will take place regardless of what the Fed Funds rate is posted at.

    It is also likely and predictable that borrowing will tighten as well so that in itself will put the brakes on auto sales, home buying and business expansion. The charts warn rates will start to creep up and what typically follows is the prices of assets like housing will fall.

    This next year or two will be a whole new experience for a lot of people who have never seen an economy contract.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 4:14pm

    #67

    westcoastjan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 325

    3+

    Update re breaking news in Canada

    It appears this is not a new case but rather the person who came from Iran. Obviously a plane transfer in Montreal en route to Vancouver, and the associated spread risks that would go with that.

    Passenger on Air Canada flight to Vancouver is not a new case of COVID-19: B.C. officials

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 5:01pm

    #68

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    1+

    The mayor reluctantly admits Lombardy RAN OUT of preliminary #coronavirus test kits!

    https://twitter.com/LakeComoExpat/status/1231703169484427264

    https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2020/02/23/coronavirus-a-bertonico-mancano-tamponi-la-denuncia-del-sindaco-del-comune-nella-zona-rossa-segnalate-carenze-anche-a-codogno/5715159/

    You can translate using this:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=translate+italian+to+english&rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS870&oq=translate+italian+to+english&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.11139j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

     

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 6:00pm

    Reply to #55
    BillL

    BillL

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    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

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    Colloidal Silver...try your humidifier or a diffuser.

    We put colloidal silver in our large humidifier in our great room area and also one in our bedroom.  Having your own generator to make it is a bonus as well.  They aren’t that complex or expensive.

    Get yourself a small nasal sprayer and 2-3 shots per nostril per day should do the trick.

    http://www.directive21.com   The Berkey Guy, Jeff Gleason, had the best prices on bulk colloidal silver when we purchased it many years ago.  There are many great products on his site as well including everything Berkey you would need.  Sign up for the Monday newsletter.  Always reasonable pricing and great service.  An occasional screaming deal as well.  A few years ago I bought a couple cases of Tattler canning lids on close out for just over 1/2 price.    Check it out.

    To those of you that can food.  Tattler is the way to go…only reusable lid that I know of.  I’d also be ratholing Ball lids as well.  Don’t get caught with a 500 jars and no lids.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 6:11pm

    Reply to #61
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 329

    Re Real Estate Appreciation

    First its all relative.   Though you could hardly call it appreciation when its actually relative to inflation – when your home costs less than car or the refrigerator that is in it.  then perhaps things will appreciate as you say.   The cost of tv is less than the cost of service in one month mind 1 year.. And that is just madness – however <I have been saying that needs to change.   Also, I was not speaking specifically about condos, as these are really bad real estate investments.   Mostly due to the fact that maintenance is costly and the HOA do not control costs , very much like the govt. landscape companies abuse HOAs , I have first hand experience.   There is many other things that affect that as well that has the cost of a condo near zero..  When the dues are 1200 per mo.  And the mortgage 800, we will have a problem.  And we do.   That will self correct when the mortage is 4000 and dues are 1000.     But, never the less.   when your toilet seat costs 150 instead of the whole toilet costing this..  The value of things must go up.. and all things relative.    The way all our grandparents became rich  ( everyone I know grandparents)   they bought property early when they could buy a house at 25000,  ( 1971 ) and by 1981 it worth 75000.  and wages by the 80s were sufficient to pay a 75000 mortgage,  while people who purchased 10 years previous were burdened with a 25000 mortgage.  My step grandfather bought a piece of lake front property for 3000 in 1957 and when he died in 1991 it was worth 300,000 ( 100 fold)  my parents held the property from 1991 until 2018 about the same 30 years , and sold it for the same 300,000.      Real estate used to build wealth  even in a bad market a home would double every 17. years with no improvements.   Then the housing crash came – OMG homes were oversold and over priced and properties went up too fast.   No on ever said that in the 70s and 80s.. we had stagnation in the 90s.  and when we caught up everyone freaked out.. But was worse is that the housing was not close to over-sold – it was still undersold.  First it needed the correction, second, the homes had great improvements.  The new homes that doubled in prices from the previous 5 years. were not the same new home. The average home went from 1800 sq ft to 2800 sq ft while finishes became high-end as well.. carpet became hardwood,  linoleum was replaced by marble or ceramics, firmica counters were replaced by granite  and particle board became solid cherry and maple.     Additionally , older homes were remodeled where owners invested at least 50k plus sweat equity, just to sell their homes at 75k more.  The housing bust was the fleecing of the american wealth by the powers to be the 1% ,  It was by design.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 6:34pm

    Reply to #51

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    1+

    ao, think you misunderstood my advice

    Second, do not cash in your Roth or IRA or 401Ks or any other tax deferred retirement account but do try to build a portfolio (include physical precious metals) outside of them as well.  Many folks here got worried back in the time of the financial crisis, cashed out their retirement accounts (with the ones under 59 1/2 taking a big penalty) and, truth be told, if most were honest with themselves, wound up regretting that decision when they missed out on a lot of big gains in the stock market.

    If you were meaning my recommendation they get out of stocks and bonds in their Roth, and go to what I called a “guaranteed fund”, I wasn’t suggesting they cash out the Roth. You are correct that would subject them to a huge tax bill.

    My 401K is managed by John Hancock. Among the various stock/bond ratio options they have, is one which invests in a stable value option. It invests in the New York Life Guaranteed Interest Account.

    The information on it is here:

    https://nb.fidelity.com/public/workplacefunds/summary/GADQ?fundId=GADQ&planId=95378

    Its a group annuity which acts like a bank CD.

    Because I was close to retirement, I moved my balance out of stocks and bonds to this option, because I didn’t want the risk of a serious market downturn costing me a big chunk of it, without any time to make it back.

    Now if I was 20 years younger a portfolio of 90% stocks like Buffet recommends might have made sense. Approaching retirement it doesn’t.

    Nor does being large on stocks, even Value stocks make sense if you think there is a large chance of a serious market correction. I happen to think the September stuff with the repo market was a good indicator that we are due on this year.

    I would have moved out of stocks then if I was younger. I’d definitely move out of them now.

    Its not just the health concerns that worry me, but the economic concerns expressed by Chris in his videos. Supply chain issues and now the bigger problem, there may be no small or midsize Chinese companies to make stuff in 2-3 months.

    Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse If Banks Don’t Act

    I agree you can’t time the tops and bottoms of the market, but you can see general trends and know when the risks are too high for you. I wouldn’t have any investment in the markets right now.

    If it gets to the United States in even half the way its gotten to China, I doubt many small companies here can survive 2-3 months of no revenue either.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 8:02pm

    Reply to #51
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

    1+

    dtrammel, sorry if my intent was misread

    I wasn’t referring to anything you said in particular.  In fact, I’d have to go back and read what you said because I don’t recall.  I just wanted to warn Alexis against closing out any retirement accounts at her young age.  I agree the risk in the market is high.  That’s why I recommended she dollar cost average getting into it.  But the risk in the market has been high for years and the central banks just keep propping it up and taking it higher and higher, defying reality.  It seems to be the only game in town for the cash/bonds/stocks crowd to get some yield and also for most other countries.  Capital has been flooding into our stock market from all over the world and is continuing to do so.  As overpriced as it would seem to be, it has a very good chance of going higher yet, a stumble or two here and there notwithstanding.  Also, the ETF produces a decent dividend so that helps out as well in a downturn.

    New York Life is a solid company where it is unlikely you’ll lose principal but do you know why?  It’s Rothschild owned.  If it comes down to you and them, in any kind of dispute, who do you think will win?  That being said, I’m just not a fan of annuities.  Ken Fisher, in a book that I recommended here a while ago, is one of many very savvy financial people who presents a compelling case against them based on research, data, and financial mathematics.  I look at them and see all those multiple layers of risk.  You have both John Hancock and New York Life involved for starters.  Then you have to consider the fixed income securities that New York Life is invested in.  Also, if something goes south with that investment, how easy is it to exit your position?  Annuities have lots of overt and covert fees and charges, especially when you try to get out of them.  If it acts like a bank CD, is it insured like one?  Then you have to ask yourself the question, “How do they maintain stable value?”  There’s a rule with investing that goes something like, “Never invest in anything unless you fully and completely understand how it works and can explain it clearly and completely to someone else.”  If you’re able to do that, fine.  If not, you may want to re-evaluate the wisdom of being in that investment.  I’ve gone to a few free dinners offered by firms pushing annuities.  Talking to some folks there who were invested in them, not a single one could satisfactorily explain how they actually worked.  That’s not good.  So, if you don’t mind, I’ll pose that question to you and await your answer.

    Some other points I made were to develop a portfolio outside of qualified accounts and also to buy some precious metals.  So the 90% in stocks would only be in the qualified account and wouldn’t be 90% of her entire portfolio.  Obviously, one has to factor in age, risk tolerance, and proximity to retirement, at least two of which are substantially different for you than for Alexis.

    I understand what you are doing for yourself and it mostly makes sense.  But consider where you are on the hierarchy of people who will get their money back if just one layer in those multiple layers of counter party risks fail.  I’ll tell you … dead last.  Bankruptcy’s a bitch.  You can’t get blood out of a rock.  I’ve been burned several times by small scale bankruptcies from parties who owed me money.  It’s not fair but it’s all part of the money game and if one is going to play, one has to assume some risk.  No one wins 100% of the time.

    I agree that the economic concerns of this situation are enormous but I also guarantee you someone is going to be making money.  It’s crisis situations like this that present rare opportunities.

    With regards to the stock market, I’m not a fan myself at the present time but I’m also retired.  I have all the capital I need.  I could be invested 100% in cash and between Social Security, rental estate income, and interest, never touch my principal and live a comfortable lifestyle with overseas travel a few times a year, which we like to do.  Alexis, on the other hand, is much younger, can afford risk, and needs growth.

    I’m sure you’ve watched the markets since the financial crisis and even watching them since the tech stock boom, they’ve often seemed wildly irrational.  As the saying goes, markets can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 8:06pm

    Reply to #51

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    No Problem ao

    I didn’t think you and I were disagreeing.

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  • Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - 11:04pm

    #69
    Alexis

    Alexis

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 66

    Thank you

    ao and dtrammel: Thanks gentleman for the finance discussion and recommendations. I appreciate you both spending your time on my situation. Great advice!

     

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