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    The Coronavirus Is Now An Actual Pandemic

    Yet the media remains criminally silent about it
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, January 27, 2020, 1:14 PM

While you wouldn’t know it by listening to the major media outlets, the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus continues to get worse. As does our understanding of its potential threat to the public health.

At this point, we have to be honest with ourselves: We are dealing with a true pandemic at this point

Chris’ message is direct: we’re passed the point when this could have been contained and ‘blown over’ in a short period of time.

This is going to get worse. Quite possibly a *lot* worse.

It’s time to prepare folks.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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84 Comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:46pm

    #1

    Quercus bicolor

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    links from the video

    CDC Emergency Kit checklist for kids and families

    Get your household ready for pandemic flu

    And one more:

    Get your workplace ready for pandemic flu

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:05pm

    #2
    neelyll

    neelyll

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    Ro

    Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.  Over 2.5.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:06pm

    #3
    jerryr

    jerryr

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    2019-nCoV pandemic already underway at first diagnosis?

     

    The comparison of 2019-ncov and SARS in the above graph, makes me suspect that perhaps the nCoV coronavirus could have existed for many months before anyone diagnosed it as a new type of disease. What appears to be a sudden increase in cases of 2019-ncov coming out of nowhere, could actually be a sudden increase in the rate of correct diagnoses of generalized flu-like symptoms.

    Is this a possible explanation, or am I grasping at straws?

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:19pm

    #4
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    China BLOCKS UK from airlifting hundreds of Brits trapped in coronavirus-plagued Wuhan

    China BLOCKS UK from airlifting hundreds of Brits trapped in coronavirus-plagued Wuhan (Wustoo)

    “HUNDREDS of Brits are stranded at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak after China blocked attempts to airlift them home.

    Officials have told all countries its lockdown will not be lifted for repatriation flights, a Foreign Office source revealed.

    And yesterday worried Brits in the city of Wuhan — the source of the deadly illness — said they had been left without any information.

    The Foreign Office has been criticised for its response to the crisis as it emerged the British embassy in Wuhan was closed over the weekend.

    The city is under quarantine with air and rail departures suspended and roads closed.”

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:20pm

    Reply to #3
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Re: First diagnosis

    Is this a possible explanation, or am I grasping at straws?

    Good probing Jerry.  With any such big-time disease, there’s an effort to chase the patient chains back to origin.  The question always has to be answered, “where did this come from?”

    Unless there’s a whole lot of lying going on here, the very first clusters all came from the live animal/seafood market.  There are no known cases before then, and the thing is so danged infectious it’s very unlikely that it was percolating along and then suddenly decided to get frisky.

    So I’m pretty sure, as much as I can be, that 2019-ncov came roaring out of the gate in early December 2019.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:23pm

    #5
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    With coronavirus spreading, U.S. evacuating personnel to San Francisco from Wuhan, China

    Brilliant.

    With coronavirus spreading, U.S. evacuating personnel to San Francisco from Wuhan, China (The Los Angeles Times)

    “The U.S. State Department announced Sunday that it planned to evacuate personnel stationed in Wuhan, China, to San Francisco because of the coronavirus outbreak.

    Officials are “making arrangements to relocate its personnel stationed at the U.S. Consulate General in Wuhan to the United States. We anticipate that there will be limited capacity to transport private U.S. citizens on a reimbursable basis on a single flight leaving Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on January 28, 2020 and proceeding directly to San Francisco,” the State Department said in a statement.

    The news comes as California is dealing with its first case of the virus.”

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:29pm

    #6
    BillL

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    Well done...

    Thanks for your efforts Chris.  They are appreciated by many.

    I haven’t been that concerned about past outbreaks (sars, ebola, etc.) but this one has my full attention.  My spider senses don’t go off that much.  Last time was in 2007.

    A PHD scientist friend of mine, my tip of the spear spouse who is in the medical field and several other savvy friends are right in there with me.

    The diversions right now are unprecedented.  Davos, impeachment, hollyweird, coronavirus, the largest human trafficking event in the world, Iran/Iraq/Russia/China, FED money printing…

    I’m going to really stir the pot with this request…How about an Off the Cuff with Dane Wigington.  His latest geoengineering weekly report #233 hammers it home.  If none of you have heard of him…www.geoengineeringwatch.org   The writing on the wall here is there, only more frightening.

    Thanks again for all your hard work Adam and Chris.  Think about it.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:30pm

    Reply to #3
    nigel

    nigel

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    Jerryr

    Jerryr you are correct. The numbers don’t add up, in order to have the virus reach 2800 confirmed cases either one of two things have to be true;

    1. It had to have started months ago, as in November or before and or

    2. It has to be radically more transmissible.

    A virus with an r0 of less than 3 that started on the 1st of December could not have infected anywhere near 2800. So either 1 or 2 are correct, or both 1 and 2 are correct.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:03pm

    #7

    sand_puppy

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    Another Strategy: Seeking infection to establish immunity

    Another Strategy: Seeking infection to establish immunity

    This strategy is based on the assumption that you SURVIVE the initial infection!

    If good medical care could give a strong chance of survival and a setting for that care were clearly available, I would think that seeking infection would be one strategy.  Similar to a “chicken pox party” held in decades past.

    Epidemics “burn out” as the percentage of immunity in a population grows to a critical level.  This is where we are at with measles currently in the USA.  When a traveler brings a measles case into an American city it finds well over 90% of the population immune (R(o) < 1) and the disease doesn’t propagate.  (Especially when the public health department further reduces R by isolating the sick and their contacts.)

    The medical community will desperately need care providers that are immune and can work without fear.

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:13pm

    Reply to #7
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

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    I agree Sand Puppy

    and remember going to the Dorsey farm to play with there children who had itchy scabs all over them. I soon had the scabs and the oatmeal bath.

    Now as concerns the novel corona virus,,,,you go first😏🤧😷🤒

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:29pm

    Reply to #7

    Quercus bicolor

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    Re: catch it now and avoid the rush

    There are advantages: First, you’ll be able to preplan good care for yourself.  Second, if you need hospital care, the hospitals won’t be overwhelmed yet.  Third you can plan to isolate from vulnerable family members.  Finally, you can help out once you recover protected by your hard earned immunity!

    I’m not sure I would try it, though.

    On another note, I’m working hard on not touching my face.  I’ve caught myself once today, so my success rate is high, but not high enough (although wearing a mask and maybe goggles with minimal face touching might do the trick).

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:30pm

    #8
    songbird

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    Best way to disinfect for this virus?

    Can anyone tell me the best disinfecting agent to use to wipe down doorknobs, faucets, etc?  Will regular Clorox disinfecting wipes kill corona virus, or would you need the actual hospital grade bleach wipes? If a product says it kills influenza germs, is that sufficient?

     

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:51pm

    #9
    Time2help

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    Cheap option

    One inexpensive approach: Mix household bleach w/ water in a spray bottle, spray contact surfaces then wipe clean. Been using 50/50 cut but that might be excessive, perhaps someone on the thread might have a better ratio (you’ll get white spots on your clothes if not careful). YLMMV

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:59pm

    #10
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    San Francisco Activates Emergency Operations Center To Prepare For Coronavirus

    San Francisco Activates Emergency Operations Center To Prepare For Coronavirus (Zerohedge, San Francisco Chronicle)

    “Increasing fears of coronavirus spreading across the U.S. have resulted in San Francisco Mayor London Breed to activate the city’s emergency operations center, reported the San Francisco Chronicle.

    “It’s, so we have a centralized location and process to prepare for what we need to do, to share public information, and to take any action if necessary,” said Jeff Cretan, a spokesman for Breed.

    So far, there have been no confirmed cases in the Bay Area, but there are new reports that at least ten people have been tested for the deadly virus in Alameda County.

    On Monday, the CDC said 110 people are under observation and being tested for the virus across the U.S. While 5 cases have already been confirmed, another 32 have tested negative.

    The emergency center is also coming online one day before a Boeing 767, filled with 230 Americans, is expected to depart from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on Tuesday for California.

    There are more than 1,000 Americans trapped in the epidemic-stricken Chinese city of Wuhan, in which the U.S. State Department launched an emergency evacuation operation over the weekend.

    The plane is expected to land in Ontario, California, which is about 400-miles south of the Bay Area.”

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 4:26pm

    #11

    sand_puppy

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    More on seeking infection to establish immunity

    Issac Asimov had a SciFi story read long ago about an interstellar space ship.  The Chief Medical officer would release a respiratory or flu virus into the ships ventilation system every Friday afternoon to challenge and strengthen the travelers immune systems.  The travelers hated the runny nose and cough every weekend and complained bitterly….

    We sometimes think of THE DISEASE ITSELF as having a CFR or an R(o).  But these values also depend on the state of the individual’s immune system (wars, famines, food quality, antioxidants?, etc) and the strength medical care available in that location.  Are the hospitals in chaos due to overload with all ICU beds full and the critically ill lying on hallway floors?   Review of measles CRFs by country and global region.

    But, as an example in the USA, measles mortality in the last decade is about equal to the number of people killed bicycling everyday.  Baseline nutritional status is good and basic medical care is widely available.

    So, the question is, with ideal medical care, could we get even the ~25% who become severely ill through.  If yes, then would it be possible to have a cadre of brave medical professional volunteers seek 2019-nCoV infections, have scheduled ideal medical care and an isolated area for recovery, and emerge to be the care providers of the next cohort?

    I don’t know.

    But facing the virus is the path to immunity.

    Rush vaccine development, like Ebola or Zika, takes several years even after years of basic science study.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 4:27pm

    #12
    CrisisMode

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    Something people are missing

    There seems to be a lot of focus on the spread of nCov beyond the Chinese borders to the rest of the world as a precursor of a massive pandemic.

     

    Let’s just suppose one thing:

     

    Let’s say that somehow, some way, all the other countries are able to contain the spread within their own boundaries. All done?

    Nope.

     

    Because this pandemic is going to wreak ABSOLUTE DEVASTATION on the Chinese economy. The country that is the single biggest purchaser of commodities in the Entire World.

    The country that is the biggest Exporter in the Entire World.

    If the engine of the worlds economy, the biggest factor in International Trade, is crushed by this pandemic (and there is Every Indication that this is happening as we speak) then . . .

    The greatest Black Swan depression will descend on the planet and whether the nCov causes any damage outside China will be irrelevant,

     

    BECAUSE if China is Crushed, The World Econcomy Is Crushed!

     

    Read it and weep.

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:04pm

    #13
    bigpig1

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    What was the r(0) of the Spanish Flu?

    In one of the videos you mentioned the 19’ Spanish Flu. What was the r (0) of that? Higher than 2.5?

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:15pm

    Reply to #7
    fated

    fated

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    Seeking Immunity

    Sand Puppy – this idea has crossed my mind too.

    Pros: all supplies still available at local hospital now

    All staff still working at local hospital, ambulances, paramedics and ICU available now

    My family still well and able to care for me now

    Plenty of sick leave available at work and workplace still able to make payments to staff

    Acquired immunity and able to care for family and others when the full kapow kicks in

    I’m probably as well nourished and healthy as possible compared to some imaginable future scenarios

     

    Cons:

    None of the above may be available when I get really ill

    I’m tired and run down lately

    I could make the following people ill unknowingly: brothers’ newborn prem baby / parent with lung cancer / parent with autoimmune conditions / nieces & nephews / work colleagues and clients and clients families. There’s a group of very compromised people in that list. Plus my immediate spouse and offspring.

    I do not know enough about what this virus does to the body. And the truth is not being shared honestly so I am very suspicious this is nasty.

    I have allergies and anaphylaxis. Do these make me more or less likely to survive this disease, more or less likely to suffer from a cytokine storm?

    There could already be a number of people affected in my area who are about to swamp the system before I arrive. Game over.

    I could use up resources that may be needed by people I know and care for.

    My conclusion is I have prepared as well as I can within the bounds of my life. I must just wait and see what really happens. Being that the virus has arrived in Melbourne, it is 150km away from us so sure to arrive soon. I’ve beaten the herd with preparations.

    And I did tell my husband he is not to get out of the car at the airport tonight when he drops family members off.  He thought I was overreacting. So – I’ve been leaving Peak Prosperity screens open on my internet browser hoping he pays more attention to you guys than me.

    Quercus – I know I touch my face ALL THE TIME. I’m an absolute walking grot. Have found recently while wearing masks for bushfire smoke that I touch my face a lot LESS with a mask on. I’m not sure why but perhaps the mask is a reminder to keep hands away.  I also made some quick observations on my way into work yesterday.  I touched 4 gate latches, 2 sliding doors, a chair and a tap before touching the hand sanitiser pump. Then touched a TV remote, I-pad screen, air conditioner control  etc etc. I guarantee you none of these things has been cleaned in recent history.

    Good luck to everyone if this is as bad as it seems…

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:30pm

    #14
    daboll

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    Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces▿

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:37pm

    Reply to #8
    bugbane

    bugbane

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    Disinfection Solutions for 2019-nCoV

    Sorry, I’m no expert but have heard that this 2019-nCoV virus has kind of an ‘outer protective shell’ that allows it to remain dormant on inanimate objects for days.  In order to better break down this shell a mixture of household antiseptic solutions has been suggested.   I think that one is using both sodium hypcholorite (Clorox™) and alcohol (Isopropyl and/or Ethanol).  I don’t know the %-ages and am not even sure if this theory is correct, so I like you, would appreciate an authority to publish the complete dope on using common household antiseptics to cleanse house.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:08pm

    Reply to #13
    Chris Martenson

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    R0 of the Spanish Flu

    In one of the videos you mentioned the 19’ Spanish Flu. What was the r (0) of that? Higher than 2.5?

    I just interviewed John Barry today who wrote the NYTimes best selling book on the Spanish Flu (“The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History.”)

    He’s served on quite a few high level Influenza Preparedness committees.

    I asked him that very question.

    He said that the 1918 Spanish flu clocked in at around R0 = 1.8

    The most recent H1N1 seasonal flu was around 1.3

    But his unnamed world class infectious disease contact says this nCoV is somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5

    Based on the numbers we’re now seeing, the high end seems appropriate?  Also, not to give the whole interview away, but he said there’s no chance of containing this one.  None.  The incubation period and the high R0 make it so.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:21pm

    #15
    fated

    fated

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    Mis/Information

    This was just today sent to local families who use a nearby childcare centre.

    Their information and links provided are sourced from our Australian Government. Woefully inadequate precautions for a disease that seems to be contagious while no symptoms are present.  And for a group of people who are known for poor hygiene practices – children, who go home to families and extended families.

    ‘Dear Families

     As you may be aware, the Australian Government Department of Health has issued information following a new coronavirus affecting people who have recently been in the city of Wuhan, China.

    This advice can be found here, particularly for people arriving in Australia from China. https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/novel-coronavirus-information-fortravellers-arriving-in-australia-from-china

    Additionally, the centre wishes to advise the following:

     • All children, families and staff should follow standard infection control precautions, in particular, hand hygiene.

    . • Staff are to be vigilant with regards to all food handling.

     • All  family members are asked to be constantly aware of cold/flu symptoms, in both themselves and others

    . • Any instances of cold/flu symptoms are to be immediately referred to the centre director

    Please find attached the information sheet from QLD Health’

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:33pm

    Reply to #4
    Sparky1

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    They let the US rescue their citizens, but not other countries??

    Interesting.  This could get uglier on many levels, and quickly. Regardless, IMO, any returning individuals from China should be considered contagious and quarantined for at least 3 weeks. Maybe past time for countries to shut down all borders?

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:38pm

    #16
    green_achers

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    Been a long time since I posted on this site. Just a random thought from someone whose income is greatly tied into the US agricultural economy: I guess we might have to rethink that whole thing about counting on China buying $40 million of ag products from us for the next couple of years.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:40pm

    Reply to #9

    thc0655

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    Disinfecting with a bleach/water solution

    Day care centers use a solution of 9 parts water to 1 part bleach to disinfect toys, surfaces and what not.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:41pm

    Reply to #1
    signalfire

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    From the Subreddit on Pandemics:  https://www.reddit.com/r/Pandemic/comments/eur3zt/summary_of_press_conference_by_professor_gabriel/  Hong Kong University press conference.

    “We modeled epidemic curves out to August 2020 for all the major city clusters in China: Chongqing, Shanghai-Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing. Chongqing is predicted to have the largest epidemic due to large population and most intense traffic volume coupled to Wuhan. The timing of the peak is sometime in April to May 2020″

    ” If we want to change the course of these epidemic curves, then we are looking at “SUBSTANTIAL, DRACONIAN MEASURES LIMITING POPULATION MOBILITY” which should be taken sooner rather than later: school closures, ban mass gatherings, work from home, but also between population clusters, we must reduce population mobility. Should containment fail and local transmission is established, mitigation measures from previous pandemics could “come off the shelf” as templates for action. The major Chinese cities would be “well advised” to review these mitigation plans and prepare to act.”

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:56pm

    Reply to #13
    bigpig1

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    That’s not what I was hoping to hear…

    New question: Assuming the higher R0 of 3.5, how does that change the other numbers you mentioned in the video? What % of the population would have gotten the Flu if the R0 of the Spanish Flu had been 3.5 instead of 1.8? And how does that translate to today’s population numbers?

     

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:19pm

    #17

    Snydeman

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    So.

    It’s already too late?

     

    Our preps will have to do. I was hoping the Fed’s shenanigans would buy us more time.

     

    Alas. May the odds ever be in your favor, friends.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:27pm

    #18
    Time2help

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    "Official" stats

    Having a hard time believing any “official” stats at this point. Would be nice to have an real estimate of CFR on this. *sigh*

    This morning:

    This afternoon:

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:28pm

    #19

    sand_puppy

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    Fatality Rate falsely appears lower at the beginning of an epidemic

    Just as thc0655 and others have pointed out, it takes some time to see how many of the sick people will die.  From the press conference by Professor Gabriel, HK Medical School linked above by signalfire:

    Fatality ratio during the beginning of an epidemic is [appears] usually low. We learned that from SARS. For the first few weeks of SARS the WHO estimated 3-5% case fatality, it turned out to be 17% in HK. That’s because of the timespan from infection to symptoms, to hospitalization, to treatment, to recovering or expiring – a full month.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:30pm

    Reply to #13
    Sparky1

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    Chris, Deboll: air temp, humidity effects survival of 2019-nCoV/surrogate viruses on hard services? (28 days??)

    Chris and Deboll, could you please provide your informed perspective on the study (here) Deboll posted re: the effects of air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH) on the survival of coronavirus surrogates? The study particulars are a bit above my pay grade, but reading through the abstract the following caught my attention [bold added]:

    “At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C….The results show that when high numbers of viruses are deposited, [surrogate viruses] TGEV and MHV may survive for days on surfaces at ATs and RHs typical of indoor environments. TGEV and MHV could serve as conservative surrogates for modeling exposure, the risk of transmission, and control measures for pathogenic enveloped viruses, such as SARS-CoV and influenza virus, on health care surfaces.”

    Virus survival up to 28 days on hard surfaces?? Yikes! The CDC has stated as recently as today during a teleconference that, based on SARS, it is likely that the 2019-nCoV may last only about 2 days on surfaces–hence they assume a very low risk of 2019-nCoV remaining on packages shipped from China. (No consideration given for AT or RH or other confounding environmental conditions.)  What are your thoughts on this wide discrepancy between the study results and the assertions of the CDC regarding 2019-nCoV potential survival on surfaces?

    PS: I’ll post the CDC teleconference transcript when it becomes available

    PPS:  Welcome to the PP tribe, Deboll! 🙂

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:38pm

    #20

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Chris’s Podcast with John Barry

    https://youtu.be/GdNompc5CZY

    Chris did a podcast in 2018 with John Barry about Pandemics.  Starting at about the 20:50 mark Mr. Barry talks about social distancing and its challenges.  Podcast has great historical info. Worth a 2nd listen!

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:47pm

    Reply to #19
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    recovery rates-still to be determined

    https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/01/china-nhc-adds-1771-new-coronavirus.html

    As of 24:00 on January 27, the National Health and Health Commission had received a total of 4,515 confirmed cases, 30 of which were 976 cases of severe cases, 106 cases of deaths, and 60 cases of discharged patients. There are 6973 suspected cases.

    Data coming from China’s commission of Health.  Is it possible we won’t know accurate death rates until survivors fully recover?  Only 60 so far reportedly cured in China by this report.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:49pm

    #21

    Adam Taggart

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    26+

    1.65+ MILLION Views on YouTube

    Wow! Chris’ daily videos on the coronavirus have been seeing tremendous views on YouTube.

    As of this writing, the four videos in our series so far have received over 1.65 million YouTube views(!). Just within the past 72 hours.

    After years of hard work putting out the best content we can, it’s extremely heartening to see a moment like this when the world suddenly responds and says ‘Yes, we’re listening!’

    I just wish it weren’t happening due to a pandemic threat.

    But despite that, I hope this is rewarding validation for all the die-hard PPers who have supported and encouraged this site through the years.

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:51pm

    #22
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 571

    12+

    Heartfelt "Welcome!" to new and newly active PP members! Thanks to all! :-)

    Its gratifying to see so many new names and posts from members who have recently joined the PeakProsperity tribe, as well as from longer term members who may post less frequently than some of us “regulars”.  This is a unique and vibrant community–even more appreciated during these very strange times. We’re better together! Thanks to all, and especially to Chris, Adam and the PP team. 🙂

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 8:21pm

    Reply to #20

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

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    John Barry round #2

    Thanks for surfacing this earlier (excellent) podcast with John, Granny.

    For those not familiar with John Barry, he’s the author of The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History, written about the Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918.

    Chris just recorded another interview with John a few hours ago, to get his perspective on how the coronavirus risk compares to that of the Spanish flu.

    John’s short answer = we should indeed be worried 🙁

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 8:40pm

    Reply to #8
    BillL

    BillL

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    Disinfectant...

    Try something different…do some research and concoct your own blend using essential oils.  Orange, eucalyptus, oregano, rosemary, clove, lemon…the options are many.  Most of these kill nearly everything.

    We use a mix of Bronner’s Sal suds, eucalyptus oil and water to clean our counters.  The stuff is the bomb and it smells good.   Complete sanitation to boot.

    Our dish/hand soap is a mix of Fractionated coconut oil, Sal Suds, lemon oil, oregano oil and On Guard.  On Guard is a mix of orange, rosemary, oregano and eucalyptus if my memory is correct.  Easy to look into if your interested.

    The beauty of the soap is the fact that you are bathing your hands in EO every time you use it.  Put it in your bathroom and kitchen.  Inhaling the E-oil smell is far better than Clorox bleach.

    Check out http://www.bulkapothecary.com for commercial grade oil far cheaper than the big name brands…been there, done that.

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 9:44pm

    #23
    obizzozero

    obizzozero

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    There may be cases in Peru

    https://www.clarin.com/mundo/alerta-peru-casos-sospechosos-coronavirus_0_I9x4hN2n.html

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 9:57pm

    #24
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 571

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    Disconcerting CDC 2019-nCoV 1/27/20 teleconference transcript [Chris will go ballistic reading this.]

    CDC’s transcript from today’s call-in teleconference is here. Featuring Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease; and Dr. Weldon, “who is leading our task force for this response.”

    After a brief opening statement by Dr. Messonnier, questions posed by reporters from BuzzFeed, Fox News, Popular Science, CNBC, AAP News, Associated Press, NewsDay, New York Times, and few other callers.

    The transcript is not long and worth a full reading. Here’s a few eye-opening, albeit disconcerting, excerpts:

    tests kits – “CDC has developed a diagnostic test called a real-time reverse transcription preliminary chain reaction, that’s RRTPCR. It can diagnose this new coronavirus in respiratory serum samples from clinical specimens. Currently we’re refining this use of this test so we can provide optimal guidance to states and laboratories on how to use it. We’re working on a plan now so that priority states get these kits as soon as possible. But in the coming weeks we’ll share these tests with domestic and international partners so they can test for the virus themselves. Our longer-term plan is to share these tests with domestic and international partners through the agency’s international re-agent resource.”

    virus mutation – “…based on CDC’s analysis of the available data it doesn’t look like the virus has mutated.”

    “enhanced” screening at entry airports – “…we are continuing to screen a few passengers from Wuhan at the five designated airports.”

    spread of virus in US, low risk – “Right now, we have a handful of patients with this new virus here in the united states. However, currently in the U.S., this virus is not spreading in the community. For that reason, we continue to believe that the immediate health risk from the new virus to the general American public is low currently.”

    screening travelers from Wuhan – “We’ve screened somewhere around 2400 people so far….the number of people who are coming from Wuhan is declining with the aggressive closure of that city. I don’t have in front of me sort of daily total from today or even the day before, but those numbers are, indeed, declining and we’re continuing the same posture with those five airports with the same screenings.”

    virus incubation period, R0 – “…our general interpretation at this point is that the incubation period is somewhere around two to 14 days….Most articles have had interpretation that the Arnot is somewhere 1.5 and 3. That’s not a dramatic difference.”

    risk of 2019-nCoV from packages shipped from China – “In general, because of the poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, that’s in the range of hours, there’s likely a very, very, very low if any risk of spread from products or packaging that is shipped over a period of days or weeks in ambient the temperatures. So, at this time we can’t fully evaluate the risks from different products that are shipped from china under different conditions, but coronaviruses have generally spread most often by respiratory droplets and there’s no evidence that supports transmission of this coronavirus is associated with imported goods and no cases in the U.S., associated with imported goods. ”

    symptomatic/asymptomatic disease transmission – “We at CDC don’t have any clear evidence of patients being infectious before symptom on sets.”

    human-to-human transmission – “So far, we’ve not seen any human-to-human transmission in the United States, but we’ll update you as more information becomes available from the U.S., as well as other countries.”

    age, risk of patients – “…the disease is by far majorly in adults with older adults in those underlying illnesses with higher risk. In the united states the five cases are all in adults. There are a few reports of disease in children, and we’ll wait to learn more as more information becomes available. In the U.S., as you can imagine we’re also taking a cautious approach….”

    cautious approach to testing Persons Under Investigation (PUIs), risk-adjusted by consensus decision making – “…we are being cautious about testing and being responsive to concerns of the clinicians and the health department. The decision about whether that patient gets tested is a joint decision between the clinician, the health department and CDC….number [current PUIs] is 110 — we’re prioritizing based on PUIs that might be at higher risk. For example, in general somebody who has a very close contact of a confirmed case and has respiratory symptoms might be a high are priority than somebody with a mild cough and traveled to Wuhan two weeks ago.”

    sensitive to release of state PUI data – “…we are incredibly sensitive about releasing names of states in this kind of context…up to a state health department whether they want to make that release….if you want to know whether there are any PUIs in your state, please contact the state health department….”

    screening, messaging, testing travelers from Wuhan/Hubei – “…In terms of the message to travelers, our focus is on returning travelers from Wuhan [and Hubei] who have respiratory symptoms and fever. This is something that we’ve been trying to make sure, we’re being very clear about to returning travelers and one of the things that’s really important about the screening at the airport is that we’re not just identifying people who are sick, we’re passing out those messages so that people who returned from Wuhan who came back a week ago, for example, if they have today a fever and respiratory infections, my message to them is please call your health care provider. It’s important you get analyzed and you may need to be tested.”

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:00pm

    Reply to #8
    ao

    ao

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    just be careful

    I noticed that in recent years, a lot of people have fallen in love with essential oils.  They have their benefits but they also have their risks.  In fact, a number of them are carcinogenic.  We had some women who rented space in our building who specialized in assisting female cancer patients.  These women used a lot of essential oils, to the point where our building actually stunk and some patrons were starting to complain.  I, for one, find many of these smells to be irritating and even noxious.  And these women were using some essential oils that were carcinogenic … with cancer patients!  Made no sense to me at all.  When I told them about the possible risks, they seemed clueless.  So just be aware, essential oils are NOT a cure-all.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 11:27pm

    #25
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Still Sparky1, but looking better in 2020! ;-)

    After 3 years and with a gentle nudge from Adam, I finally added a photo Avatar.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 11:34pm

    Reply to #1
    Yoxa

    Yoxa

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    Video: How to wear a surgical mask properly

    A useful video from Jan 24 on how to wear a surgical mask properly … has English subtitles:

     

     

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 12:18am

    Reply to #3
    RPSTemple

    RPSTemple

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    Re: First Diagnosis

    Chris

    There is one clear piece of evidence that there was at least one case before the ‘fish market’ cluster.  From the Lancet paper published on 24th January (page 4).

    The symptom onset date of the first patient identified was Dec 1, 2019. None of his family members developed fever or any respiratory
    symptoms. No epidemiological link was found between
    the first patient and later cases.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

    There is also a paper which I have read (but cannot now find – I thought it was from Imperial College London) which noted that the average age of the patients reported on in the Lancet paper was very high in comparison the median age of the population of China. Therefore it was possible that the virus has been circulating  longer in Wuhan, but any illness caused was not sufficiently severe to be considered other than seasonal flu or equivalent.

    Richard

    Update. The article I could not find was from ProMed – International Society for Infectious Diseases.  The link is:

    https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=6918012&view=true

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 1:06am

    #26
    Yeo Man 313

    Yeo Man 313

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    they’re literally dropping like flies
    https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=tmCR_1580001940

    Wuhan Nurse saying there is 90,000 infected
    https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=uc5lN_1580034600

     

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 1:29am

    Reply to #3
    nigel

    nigel

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    Charles Hugh Smith

    Charles Hugh Smith has a very interesting article where he is citing genetic research into the age of the virus which seems to show it started october/november. Now my math example above would show that an r0 of 2.4 is correct if it’s that old. And r0 of 2.4 and a incubation period of 7 days would almost line up with the current best guesses. Maybe it’s a week or two out in either direction. His source  https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/dna-sleuths-read-coronavirus-genome-tracing-origins-and-mutations/

    1st case in china R0 2.4
    30/10/19 1
    06/11/19 2
    13/11/19 6
    20/11/19 14
    27/11/19 33
    04/12/19 80
    11/12/19 191
    18/12/19 459
    25/12/19 1101
    01/01/20 2642
    08/01/20 6340
    15/01/20 15217
    22/01/20 36520
    29/01/20 87649

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 1:57am

    #27
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    MOST INSIGHTFUL ARTICLE of THE DAY - from Icahn Medical School - ALARMING

    Scary new article on the Virus – from an Assistant Professor –

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/26/2019-ncov-china-epidemic-pandemic-the-wuhan-coronavirus-a-tentative-clinical-profile/

     

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 2:24am

    Reply to #3
    VTGothic

    VTGothic

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    Non market-related cases confirmed

    Your Lancet article’s note of at least 1 case reported at the first of December that has not been traced to the Wuhan “wet market” is supported in the article published in Foreign Policy magazine linked here by Andy_S (#27). That article notes several cases now known that are not linked to the market. It points to a source other than the current official account, and likely to a presence in the general population preceding December 2019.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 2:39am

    #28
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    cell phones, the little germ carrier

    I guess I should use the speaker function?  If you need privacy go to another room.  Headsets require that you touch your head which is pretty close to nose and mouth as well.

    Few things touch our faces more often these days after touching our hands.  Computer keyboards as well.  It seems unlikely that I will clean my cell phone every time I touch it with my hands.  Just my thoughts.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 2:51am

    #29
    nedyne

    nedyne

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    A book worth having around

    To the list of what to have in case this gets to the stage of having to isolate yourself/your family at home for weeks/months, I’d add this book: Feeling Good, by Dr. David Burns. I think that book is a must read anyway, but if you’re at home with nowhere to go and nothing to do besides worry, it’d be a great tool to help you manage your anxiety and sort through your thoughts.

    It’s the only book I know of that has the distinction of having had several peer-reviewed, scientific papers published that tested whether giving someone the assignment of simply reading the book by itself caused a positive outcome (relieving depression in many of the studies’ subjects), but it’s much more than a book for depression. It’s useful for anxiety and other negative emotions. It’s proven helpful to me for over a year. Cognitive therapy works.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 2:53am

    #30

    Afridev

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    Number of cases reported

    Here an overview that shows why the number of cases reported will not be up-to-date. The persons reported with disease at point (A) were infected at time point (B). Persons infected at time point (A) will only show symptoms at time point (C), but these infections are already ‘ baked in the cake’. Persons who have an asymptomatic infection will not be reported either, but can most likely still transmit the virus to others.

    Number of cases reported will also depend on proper diagnosis of the infection, adequate registration and consolidation of data, and truthful reporting of it…

    I hope the overview gives enough resolution. This overview is from a training on cholera, but the same principles will be at play (cholera has a much shorter incubation period).

    I suppose it isn’t clear yet how many infections are asymptomatic infections. For influenza this seems to be 20-50% of all infections (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586318/), not sure if it would be similar here. Did anybody read something on this?

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 5:06am

    #31
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    WHAT TIME is NEW YOUTUBE INTERVIEW?

    You mentioned on this site a coming video – I think with expert John Barry (?)

    What time roughly can we expect it?

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 5:42am

    #32
    ignostic

    ignostic

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    Japan and Germany each reporting cases of infection in people that had not visited China

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-china-japan-latest-outbreak-bus-driver-wuhan-death-toll-a9305406.html

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 6:58am

    #33

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

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    Posts: 1805

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    Cautious, prudent, level-headed

    http://www.woodpilereport.com/

    Coronavirus isn’t Ebola or the Black Plague, it’s this year’s flavor of the flu. Before this strain appeared, the CDC says from October 1, 2019 to mid-January of this year there have been 8,200 to 20,000 flu deaths in the US. The average per year is about 36,000. Coronavirus won’t be all that special until we see numbers substantially above these.

    As in every flu season, the usual precautions are your best bet. You know the drill. Stay away from crowds, wash yer hands, eat yer peas, get yer sleep. Apparently it’s exceptionally contagious, even during its long incubation period. If your situation warrants it consider N95 or N100 masks and nitrile gloves. Don’t get paranoid, but have a worst-case plan for long term isolation and the supplies to support it. The worst of the “worst-case” would have it mutating to a more lethal form.

    Some sources say it has an R0 of about 5, which is top-of-the-chart contagious. True? I don’t know. One source says the Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate has leaped to 15%, and the infection rate among those exposed is 83%. True? I don’t know. But I do know there’s something about an epidemic that brings out the apocalyptic in people. It could be because truth is the other Patient Zero.

    Understand, the true mortality rate is the number of deaths per total number of patients when they contracted the flu, not per total number of patients when they died. The latter skews the mortality rate downward during the run up. Further, we can’t know if many or even most cases are too mild to warrant a diagnosis to begin with, which would drastically skew the mortality rate upward. Nor do national and international agencies generally release their best data to the public on a timely basis. The point is, the numbers themselves are as unreliable as those who have the authority to act on them.

    Don’t assume disease control agencies can materially limit a flu pandemic, or even intend to. When confronted with a potentially dangerous new strain they invariably forfeit valuable time with inaction and comforting denials until the best opportunity for containment has passed. Then we see theatric but mostly useless gestures to reassure us they’re “doing something”.

    On the other hand, some web sites sensationalize and speculate from the get-go. High end numbers are cited and thrown into the echo chamber, stats from the 1918 flu disaster are trotted out, wood cuts from medieval times get reworked into dark memes, dire but seemingly plausible rumors are passed around, the tired “bring out your dead” video clip is revived, and so forth. Unfortunately, this is different from being wrong.

    Which will it be? As we say around here, a man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure. You’re on your own, as are we all.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 6:58am

    Reply to #31

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

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    Later today/early tomorrow

    Yes, Andy — we just recorded a podcast interview with John Barry yesterday.

    We’re hard at work editing it and hope to publish it later today. Early tomorrow at the latest.

    cheers,

    A

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 7:11am

    #34
    greendoc

    greendoc

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    Returning employees from Asia required home isolation for 2 weeks

    My husband works for a hardware spinoff of Facebook in Seattle and as of four days ago their Health and Safety Team has instituted a mandatory home isolation of two weeks symptom free for any employee returning from any Asian destination before returning to work.  That would apply company wide across the world where they have offices. I imagine all those related companies Amazon, Google doing the same as so much crosstalk between the corporate giants on a human resource level.  Still lots of holes in the public health system, but at least this is a step in the right direction.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 7:22am

    #35
    Jay Treaty

    Jay Treaty

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 0

    Orange Julius

    Given the trajectory we’re on, I’m guessing that TPTB will use this crisis as the pretext for disrupting the electoral process, perhaps even “postponing” the November election.  Anyone else pondering along these lines?

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 7:38am

    #36
    Jeff

    Jeff

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    CDC not very efficient

    As a first responder in the SF Bay Area I am concerned about this virus.  I was talking to our Emergency Medical Services Director this morning about the Corona Virus.  He was in a meeting yesterday to discuss the virus.  As of now(according to the doctors at the meeting), there are 6-7 potential patients of interest in California.  However, the CDC protocol is not aggressive/efficient enough.  If a person is suspected of Corona Virus, blood is drawn and shipped to Atlanta for testing, three days later the results come back.  3 days!!!!!!!!!!! Hopefully they are changing that.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 8:12am

    Reply to #35
    ao

    ao

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    welcome to the site

    But it’s really not the place for partisan political speculation.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 8:50am

    #37
    Charles

    Charles

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    Face Mask Orders Restricted to Hospitals

    The window for preparation is closing:

    “We regret to inform you that we were abruptly notified of a nationwide restriction on mask orders, preventing your order from being fulfilled. Due to a significant shortage in face masks, manufacturers are restricted to reserve any remaining inventory for their hospital and surgery center customers only. Manufacturers have requested the cancellation of any mask orders placed through retailers.”

    All the bulk N95 mask boxes were cleared from shelves at the local Home Depot and Lowe’s last night with only a few remaining in single mask packaging.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 8:53am

    Reply to #35
    Jay Treaty

    Jay Treaty

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    On the Politics of Pandemics

    Actually, I’m non-partisan, if not downright anti-partisan.  “TPTB” includes a wide range of partisan powers who have earned various fitting nicknames, not least of all Orange Julius.  Surely there is room on PP for nonpartisan political speculation?

    The political bottom line during pandemics:  What are the trade-offs between public health and civil rights, and who gets to decide?

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 9:21am

    Reply to #35
    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

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    sounds partisan to me

    You are refering to the president ( I assume ? ) using a soda name as a derogatory dig.   That is partisan.

    Now, discussion policies and why you think they are bad or good, that is what is normal for this site.  Not partisan name calling

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 9:43am

    #38
    vshelford

    vshelford

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    Interesting speculation

    that the very high numbers and intensity in Wuhan might be correlated to their appallingly high industrial pollution, so the population is already unusually vulnerable.

    What are the Chinese hiding in Wuhan?

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 9:50am

    #39
    Lisa Mooney

    Lisa Mooney

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    Posts: 16

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    11:39 am: Cramer warns against buying amid virus fears

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on “Squawk Box” that there were too many unknowns about the coronavirus to be a buyer in the stock market. The market could take another dip if the World Health Organization declares the outbreak a global emergency, Cramer said. “I just think you’re coming in on quicksand here,” Cramer said. — Pound

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 9:53am

    Reply to #36
    Lisa Mooney

    Lisa Mooney

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    Jeff stay safe. Thank you for your service. As a RN I agree they need to speed up State Public Health labs ability to do this testing.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 10:43am

    Reply to #8
    BillL

    BillL

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    just be careful...

    I just made some helpful suggestions based on our experience and several years of research and experimentation (our own).  To my recollection, not one time did we come across anything carcinogenic in any of the essential oils.  If I/we had, it would have been mentioned.  I can assure you, cancer/disease/illness avoidance is on our radar 24/7.

    I realize some people have a sensitivity to skin/smell of EO’s, that is theirs to determine.  Some of the oils are a bit hot and can cause skin irritation.  It is up to the user to determine which ones will not work for them.

    If you have any helpful/factual information on EO’s, by all means share it with us.  I can go anywhere and get unsupported comments out of thin air.

    Thank God that we can still make suggestions and also choose to decide what is best for ourselves.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 11:13am

    Reply to #35
    Mots

    Mots

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    Posts: 143

    12+

    welcome to the site, but no "political bottom lines"

    Jay, I want to echo AO’s welcome as a new member.
    But this is not a political discussion group and your “political bottom line” is not a proper subject.  We are not political scientists.  Instead we are mostly real scientists, engineers, agriculturists and other DIY people who get our hands dirty on reality.  We wash our hands often because of this but avoid getting our minds dirty on vacuous political nonsense, which just wastes precious time.
    Creation of wealth (the real source of Peak Prosperity) based on real life experience with food, water, energy and the environment is kind of inconsistent with Political Bottom Lines.
    In fact, some of us are working on resilient independent community development BECAUSE we no longer need Washington DC, Tokyo, Beijing, Munich, London etc.  They need us but we  don’t need them.  This is related to the same arguments made between Jefferson and Hamilton when America was formed.  For many of us, freedom and peak prosperity arise from removal from entanglement with the political arena and the banker machinations that accompany it.  Political Bottom Lines can be seen as a hindrance to Peak Prosperity from this view.  But that is another subject that requires more space than a simple keyboard squirt of chit chat crap.
    There is much here for you at Peak Prosperity (as opposed to Peak Politics) and one of these things perhaps is a new perspective on the world.  We are too busy for Political Bottom Lines and I hope that you find out why and look around the site.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 12:01pm

    Reply to #27
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 571

    AndyS, interesting article, paywall, excerpts pls.

    Hi AndyS,

    This looks like an interesting article from the few paragraphs I was able to read. However, there’s a registration/paywall that prevents access to the full article. Would you be so kind as to pull key excerpts from the article and/or provide a summary?  Thanks!

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 1:27pm

    #40
    Ejohnson

    Ejohnson

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    Joined: Oct 26 2018

    Posts: 16

    1+

    Potential economic impacts

    https://apple.news/AfIbdlZoeQAiwndnd_T7JHQ

    good article from south China morning post discussing economic (GDP) impacts from the quarantines and lockdowns.

    certainly an interesting angle to think about, since it focuses on the impact of the “public health measures” already implemented, regardless of whether the outbreak itself gets more or less severe.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 2:18pm

    #41
    Queen Bee

    Queen Bee

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    Joined: Nov 03 2014

    Posts: 2

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    HOPE!!!

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/wuhan-coronavirus-created-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390?pfmredir=sm&fbclid=IwAR2ByPEt8Uzpk7Zu4C_Px0hjG73JX1FsTb8wPLl5F5oAnz5wJOb1VK834SQ

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 2:29pm

    #42
    DisappearingCulture

    DisappearingCulture

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 21 2014

    Posts: 53

    7+

    Build the Strength of Your Own Immune System

    I’m a chiropractor with 35+ years’ experience and a lot of study of nutrition. It’s way beyond what can be accomplished in a post to educate people about supplements they can take to strengthen their immune system, but they are out there…but not so much in most stores that carry poor quality supplements.

    Start taking a daily MINIMUM of 5,000 i.u’s [125mcg] of vitamin D3. If you have gastrointestinal problems or recently finished a regimen of antibiotics, you need quality probiotics. A diet high in fiber [some needs to be from raw fruits or vegetables] will be what [the pre-biotics] the probiotics multiply on.

    Have gallons of pure water to drink, particularly between meals. When sick being well hydrated is essential to a more rapid recovery.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 2:48pm

    Reply to #8
    ao

    ao

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    Posts: 1217

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    are we in denial

    That’s the URL description of an article BY AROMATHERAPISTS describing toxic and carcinogenic properties of certain essential oils.

    BillL

    I realize that you were just trying to be helpful but as the saying goes, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.  If you could elucidate on the nature  of your research and experimentation, we can better determine if it was your impressions, opinions, or beliefs that drove your choices or if it was truly valid research backed by sound experimental design, data, etc.

    What I stated was not extracted “out of thin air”.  Here’s the article noted above.

    https://www.alliance-aromatherapists.org/assets/Undiluted-are%20we%20in%20denial.pdf

    And another.

    https://www.webmd.com/beauty/news/20180813/essential-oils-promise-help-but-beware-the-risks

    I started to become more wary when I noted that EOs were being sold in multi-level marketing schemes.

     

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 3:43pm

    #43
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    CDC: 2019-nCoV increased screening, quarantine facilities at 20 US airports

    “The U.S. government is increasing staff to conduct screenings at 20 airports that handle almost all passengers traveling into the country from China, where a novel coronavirus continues to spread, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Details of the expanded surveillance are still being formulated. The CDC already has quarantine facilities in place at 20 ports of entry, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Anchorage, Honolulu, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, Atlanta, Miami and Houston.”

    (Source)

     

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 5:42pm

    #44
    meyersn

    meyersn

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    CNN - Masks not recommended?

    CNN is claiming that:

    “So unless you’re treating a patient with the coronavirus, the N95 respirator isn’t necessary, he said.”

    This seems to contradict the CDC website.

    ”You should wear a facemask when you are in the same room with other people and when you visit a healthcare provider. If you cannot wear a facemask, the people who live with you should wear one while they are in the same room with you.”

     

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/health/coronavirus-us-masks-prevention-trnd/index.html

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/guidance-prevent-spread.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fguidance-prevent-spread.html

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 5:57pm

    Reply to #37
    Yeo Man 313

    Yeo Man 313

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    They’re probably worried about the logistics of providing enough for healthcare workers and trying to discourage the general public. Some hacks are purchasing and reselling them for 500$ a pop.

    A good deal of painting/sanding masks accept n100 filters, which are as effective as n95’s, and won’t be snagged up as quickly.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 6:36pm

    Reply to #37

    lessgovtnow

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 7

    Do N95 Masks really help?

    Do N95 masks really help? Someone on twitter pointed out that N95 filters down to .3 microns. SARS, which is a coronavirus, is 100nm according to NIH (link below). 100nm is .1 microns, so would the 2019 nCov be similar in size, and render the N95 useless?  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12796822

     

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 6:45pm

    Reply to #35

    Wendy S. Delmater

    Status: Diamond Member

    Joined: Dec 13 2009

    Posts: 1429

    8+

    This is our "party"

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 6:52pm

    Reply to #37
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Re: Do N95 Masks Help? Yes!

    Do N95 masks really help? Someone on twitter pointed out that N95 filters down to .3 microns. SARS, which is a coronavirus, is 100nm according to NIH (link below). 100nm is .1 microns, so would the 2019 nCov be similar in size, and render the N95 useless?  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12796822

    Here’s what I wrote in an earlier comment (lots of good info getting buried unfortunately):

    Reader Comment: I decided to do a search on the size of viruses vs. the stated efficiency of N95 masks.  Per the FDA, the N95 “respirator blocks at least 95 percent of very small (.03 micron) test particles”.

    A search on the size of viruses gave me the following summary, “.004 to 0.1 microns in size, which is about 100 times smaller than bacteria”.

    This is important, a little complicated, but not too much.

    Different sorts of viruses get transmitted in different ways.  The avian flu viruses are real pains in the butt because they “aerosolize.”   That’s essentially being shed as a pure virus particle that can be breathed out into the air.

    These are very small particles, but not all the way as small as individual virus particles.

    Here’s some data on avian transmission:

    Poultry-to-human avian influenza (AI) virus transmission can occur from 3 types of exposure: fomite-contact transmission, including contact with contaminated surfaces; droplet transmission, in which large (>5 μm) particles contact a person’s conjunctiva or respiratory mucosa; and droplet nuclei transmission (or aerosol transmission), in which a person inhales small (<5 μm) particles suspended in the air.

    (Source)

    Corona viruses, on the other hand, are not known to have the aerosolization feature.  With the one caveat that it’s always possible that the 2019-ncov is different, other known and studied cornaviruses spread mainly by droplets (>5 um).

    When person-to-person spread has occurred with MERS and SARS, it is thought to have happened mainly via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory pathogens spread. Spread of SARS and MERS between people has generally occurred between close contacts.

    (Source – CDC)

    Bottom line:  N95 masks are perfectly useful for protection against other coronaviruses,  and I would expect that to be true here as well. (Of course, we’ll keep a close eye on it all in case that proves untrue).

    Also:  No mask is worth the effort if worn improperly!  Might as well not have it.  This means a snug fit where you are not breathing ‘around’ the mask.

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 10:58pm

    Reply to #11
    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 242

    1+

    I like the way you think

    Thanks for the Asimov reference.  Homeopathic medicine can solve this problem.  In fact, there are even homeopathic type vaccines that strengthen the immune system available for this virus right now.  Our medical system from hell has thoroughly discredited and propagandized against this healing art.  Fear porn pushed by the establishment.  Check it out.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 2:58am

    #45
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 571

    2+

    US rescue flight for Americans in Wuhan rerouted to March AFB; passengers to be quarantined 3-14 days

    US chartered flight from China’s coronavirus zone rerouted to March Air Reserve Base

    “The flight, with more than 200 people aboard, is now scheduled to arrive at March Air Reserve Base in Riverside County, California, about 30 miles from where the flight was originally scheduled to land, in Ontario, California, just outside of Los Angeles.”

    “Once there, all passengers will be quarantined for at least three days and monitored by the CDC, per the official. Those who show signs of the illness and need to be tested could be held for as many as 14 days. Passengers are being monitored along the way and if anyone gets sick in the air, they may be separated in Alaska and flown onward independently, the U.S. official said. ”

    (Source)

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 2:09pm

    #46
    HaikuJr

    HaikuJr

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 5

    2+

    Osore

    A frog jumps in pond
    Some people are scared sand puppy
    Wants to infect himself

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 8:04pm

    Reply to #46
    Yeo Man 313

    Yeo Man 313

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 28 2020

    Posts: 10

    He does have somewhat of a point. Since these things mutate as they spread, he’d essentially be taking out a call option on his current chances of dying

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:28am

    #47
    MattRoss72

    MattRoss72

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    Joined: Jan 24 2020

    Posts: 9

    2+

    YOUTUBE - Chen Qiushi - video self interview Jan 30, 2020

    self interview from Chen Qiushi inside Wuhan, turn on CC captions for english.  Thought I would share, feel it is worth the watch.  26:47 long

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&feature=emb_title&fbclid=IwAR0xC2Zq4UaGePa2rYcrvNE-7jtfsyQI2JS3hIcCzHpjCGp0GTe10O3chh4

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 1:43am

    #48
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 571

    1+

    OMG! A painfully misinformed, misleading video from Prepper Princess re: nCoV "fear porn"

    Its a jaw-dropper! =:-0

    https://youtu.be/EZg-bfM3B80

    Prepper Princess’ primary focus has been on frugality in prepping with some discussion on current events.  This 8-minute video, “The Coronavirus…When is it Time to Panic?” is shockingly lacking in even the most basic research.  She seems to confuse nCoV with Swine Flu. Her data and her understanding of the data is way off. Her rationale for not panicking (“its a cold…no one in US has passed away from this”) and when to panic (e.g., when roads and other transportation avenues are closed in/around a quarantined area, time to “get out of Dodge”) are nonsensical–and more!  She closes by encouraging her viewers to be alert for media propaganda, to do their own due diligence and “proper research”. Unbelievable!

    However, I was impressed with the many comments from viewers who were much better informed and provided accurate information. (At least 1 referral to Chris’s videos/PP.) She lost a lot of credibility and subs on this really embarrassingly poor video.

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  • Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - 4:15am

    Reply to #48
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 181

    2+

    One example of how a lack of faith in the credibility of the press and government can have serious consequences.  There are many like Prepper Princess who are otherwise well informed but sadly are taking the same attitude.

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