financial crisis

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silentera.com

The Great Oil Swindle

Is leading us to destruction
Friday, December 15, 2017, 7:41 PM

When it comes to the story we're being told about America's rosy oil prospects, we're being swindled. And the swindle is not just limited to the US.

At its core, the swindle is this: The shale industry's oil production forecasts are vastly overstated.

The false conclusions the world is drawing as a result of the deception and outright lies we're being told is putting our future prosperity in major jeopardy. Policy makers and ordinary citizens alike have been misled, and everyone -- everyone -- is unprepared for the inevitable and massive coming oil price shock. » Read more

Blog

Upon The Next Crisis, The Rules Will Suddenly Change

For the benefit of the elites; not the rest of us
Friday, September 29, 2017, 8:02 PM

We can add a third certainty to the two standard ones (death and taxes): The rules will suddenly change when a financial crisis strikes.

Why is this a certainty? Human nature, politics and the structure of societies/economies ruled by centralized states (governments). » Read more

Podcast

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Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years

Creating the buying opportunity of a lifetime
Monday, January 30, 2017, 1:02 PM

Economist and cycle trend forecaster Harry Dent sees crushing deflation ahead for nearly every financial asset class. We are at the nexus of a concurrent series of downtrends in the four most important predictive trends he tracks.

Laying out the thesis of his new book The Sale Of A Lifetime, Dent sees punishing losses ahead for investors who do not position themselves for safety beforehand. On the positive side, he predicts those that do will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy assets at incredible bargain prices once the carnage ends (and yes, for those of you wondering, he also addresses his outlook for gold). » Read more

Podcast

disclosuremedia.net

Jim Rickards: They're Going To Lock Down The System

When central banks can print no more, money will be trapped
Sunday, November 6, 2016, 1:50 PM

Summary:

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Jim Rickards (35m:25s). » Read more

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The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

And it sure looks angry
Friday, January 15, 2016, 8:53 PM

As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis? » Read more

Blog

danielo

Iraq Breaks Down, Oil Surges

The context underlying the growing crisis
Monday, June 16, 2014, 12:58 PM

The situation in Iraq is serious, and is probably going to get worse before it gets better. The potential for this recent action to morph into a regional conflict is very high. That that means that oil could go a lot higher, and if it does, we can expect the odds of a global economic recession and an attendant financial crisis to go up considerably from here. » Read more

Insider

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Oil at Risk

Get ready for $150 per barrel oil?
Monday, June 16, 2014, 12:57 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why this Iraq crisis comes at a very vulnerable time for world oil markets
  • The three mostly likely outcomes to the current crisis, and the resulting oil price of each
    1. ISIS remains contained from here
    2. ISIS takes Bagdad and points south
    3. A more widespread Middle East conflict erupts
  • The growing risk to the global economy & financial markets
  • What concerned individuals should do now

If you have not yet read Iraq Breaks Down, Oil Surges, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The biggest risk to the world economy from the developing Iraq situation is that the price of oil could spike higher, killing the sputtering economic 'recovery' and triggering both a new global Recession and financial crisis.

Now, here's the truly interesting part of where we are in this story.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) has recently called for OPEC to deliver more oil by year end, which I wrote about here, and especially called upon Saudi Arabia to do so because world oil supplies are incredibly tight right now.  OPEC is the only entity in the world with any identifiable 'swing production', as all of the non-OPEC nations are alrady producing at maximum capacity. At least, the hope is that OPEC has additional production capacity.

In the prior piece mentioned, I wrote that of the 12 OPEC members, 8 are in a sustained decline trend for a variety of geological or political reasons. Only 4 are not. Only 1 actually has shown a significant increase in oil production over the past few years -- and that was Iraqwhich had added 1.5 mbd recently:

Here's what's at risk if the ISIS rebels push further south:

(Source)

The IEA is already calling on OPEC to deliver 1.2 mbd more by year end 2014. If Iraq's production is lost, then we can just add that amount to the 'needed total' that the IEA has requested be brought on line by Saudi Arabia, an amount that I already sincerely doubt they can meet. If even a portion of Iraq's production is lost, then we can just kiss $110 barrel good-bye and say hello to $150 per barrel oil. War is messy and it's never easy to predict what might happen, but we'd be foolish to not consider what might happen here.

The true game-changer for the world will come when... » Read more

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When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?

The world is trapped in a quest for 'Demand'
Tuesday, April 22, 2014, 1:14 PM

Understandably for the US, which sustained a consumption supercycle for several decades, the post-financial crisis period has kicked off a new trend: Americans want to consume less, and make more.

Americans want to own less stuff, use less energy, and produce their own goods. In short, Americans want to sell» Read more

Insider

Off the Cuff: Trouble Brewing Everywhere

Signs of weakness are appearing on a number of fronts
Thursday, August 29, 2013, 8:00 PM

<p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and Adam discuss:</p>
<ul>
    <li>Currency Chaos
        <ul>
            <li>Weaker currency markets are suddenly imploding</li>
        </ul>
    </li>
    <li>From the Outside in
        <ul>
            <li>Economic distress is moving closer to the core</li>
        </ul>
    </li>
    <li>Is a Financial Collapse Nigh?
        <ul>
            <li>Does Chris still expect declines of 40% or more?</li>
        </ul>
    </li>
    <li>The Syria Curve Ball
        <ul>
            <li>How would an open conflict change the game?</li>
        </ul>
    </li>
</ul> » Read more

Blog

The Periphery is Failing

The next big economic dislocation might be only weeks away
Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 4:04 PM

For years we've preached the From the Outside In principle of markets: When trouble starts, it nearly always does so out in the weaker periphery before creeping towards the core.

We saw this in the run-up to the housing bubble collapse, as sub-prime mortgages gave way before prime loans, and in Europe, as smaller economies like Greece, Ireland, and Cyprus have fallen first and hardest (so far).  We see this today in accelerating food stamp use among poorer U.S. households.  In each case, the weaker economic parties give way first before being followed, over time, by the stronger ones.

Using this framework, we can often get several weeks to several months of advance notice before trouble erupts in the next ring closer to the center.

Which makes today notable, as we're receiving a number of new warning signs.  The periphery is giving way. » Read more