GDP

Blog

© Albund | Dreamstime.com

The Economy Is Cooked

The growth cycle has peaked
Friday, April 20, 2018, 8:04 PM

Hours ago, European Central Bank chief Mario Dragho conceded: "The growth cycle may have peaked"

Of course, those paying attention to the data already knew this. Our politicians and central planers have been peddling to us the fantasy that the global economy is strengthening, finally ready to fire on all cylinders after nearly ten years of dependence on monetary stimulus.

That just ain't so. » Read more

Podcast

Dreamstime

Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead

Fannie Mae forecasts an economic slowdown by 2019
Monday, April 16, 2018, 11:53 AM

Doug Duncan is not your average beltway economist.

The chief economist for Fannie Mae is surprisingly outspoken about the troublesome outlook for the US economy. He's worried about the rising cost of debt service as outstanding credit continues to mount at the same time interest rates are starting to ratchet higher, too. » Read more

Blog

© Rangizzz | Dreamstime.com

The Future Ain't What It Used To Be

Looks like we're in for a much rockier ride than many expect
Friday, March 30, 2018, 8:36 PM

This marks our our 10th year of doing this.  And by “this”, we mean using data, logic and reason to support the very basic conclusion that infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible. 

The only remaining question concerns how fast the adjustment happens. Will the future be defined by a "slow burn", one that steadily degrades our living standards over generations? Or will we experience a sudden series of sharp shocks that plunge the world into chaos and conflict? » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: Is This The Blow-off Top?

And if so, how long can it continue?
Thursday, January 4, 2018, 8:42 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • How Long Can This Continue?
    • Debt has been rising faster than income everywhere for decades
  • The Rules Will Certainly Be Changed
    • Desperate elites will always act in their best interest
  • Are We Seeing The Blow-off Top?
    • Dear God, let's hope so
  • A Commodities Price Spike Will Pop This Bubble
    • If it doesn't collapse under its own overshoot, first

Chris and John kick off the new year by remarking how similar the conditions now feel to 1999 and 2007. The world financial markets have been running much too hot for far too long, and yet they've kicked into an even higher gear of late. Fortunes are being made in the cryptocurrencies -- a space most of the investors throwing their capital into have next to zero understanding of. The Dow is hitting new price records faster than it ever has in its history.

Obviously this can't end well, and it won't. And when the inevitable crash occurs, expect those who created this mess to take cruel-handed measures to sacrifice the rest of us in order to protect whatever amount of their privilege they can.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Podcast

marshfieldclinic.org

David Collum: The Vicious Cycle Approaches

We'll regress to (and through) the mean
Sunday, December 24, 2017, 2:03 PM

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2017 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light -- and this year's is no exception. » Read more

Blog

Victor Moussa/Shutterstock

The Cardinal Sin Of Investing: Permanent Impairment Of Capital

How to avoid making it
Friday, September 15, 2017, 8:47 PM

Permanent impairment of capital is the cardinal sin of investing.

Well, today's markets present a clear and present danger of coming capital impairment for those who don't take prudent action in advance of a market downturn. Don't be guilty of inaction.

 
Blog

studiovin/Shutterstock

Who’s Going To Eat The Losses?

The only question that matters regarding today's markets
Friday, September 8, 2017, 11:25 PM

Younger generations that are being asked (goaded?) to step into an increasingly flawed future begin to resist. Which is completely understandable. They have nothing to gain if the status quo continues.

At the same time, the older generations mostly just settle into a stubborn insistence that everything will be fine if everyone will just do more of precisely what got us into the mess in the first place. Younger people should step up to make sure Medicare/Social Security/pensions remain fully funded, and buy the financial assets and homes of downsizing seniors at top dollar. The boomers have everything to lose if the status quo changes.

What happens when a culture’s dominant narratives are not just unsatisfactory, but entirely unworkable?  » Read more

Podcast

Oleksii Sergieiev | Dreamstime

Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
Monday, August 7, 2017, 2:42 PM

"The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time. » Read more

Blog

Wikimedia.org

Bad Models Result In Terrible Outcomes

Things are worsening because we pursue the wrong policies
Friday, July 14, 2017, 11:38 PM

Recently I spent a month in Buenos Aries.  I went there to study the people, the culture and the economy of a prosperous land, filled with kind, well educated people.

One key lesson was this; bad policies can ruin every advantage you might have had.

While not as bad off as it was in 2002 when people filled the streets banging pots and pans in protest of their economically ruined lives, the place is still clearly depressed as are most of its people.  » Read more

Blog

Carlos E. Santa Maria/Shutterstock

The Looming Energy Shock

The next oil crisis will arrive in 3 years or less
Friday, June 30, 2017, 10:10 PM

There will be an extremely painful oil supply shortfall sometime between 2018 and 2020. It will be highly disruptive to our over-leveraged global financial system, given how saddled it is with record debts and unfunded IOUs. » Read more