housing bubble

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Trouble Ahead For The Housing Market

We're starting to see rising supply & flat/declining prices
Monday, July 16, 2018, 3:27 PM

Our good friend John Rubino over at DollarCollapse.com just released an analysis titled US Housing Bubble Enters Stage 2: Suddenly Motivated Sellers.

He reminds us that housing bubbles follow a predictable progression:

  • Stage 1: Mania -- Prices rise at an accelerating rate as factors like excess central bank liquidity/loose credit/hot foreign money drive a virtuous bidding cycle well above sustainably afforable levels.
  • Stage 2: Peak -- Increasingly jittery owners attempt to sell out before the party ends. Supply jumps as prices stagnate.
  • Stage 3: Bust -- As inventory builds, sellers start having to lower prices. This begins a vicious cycle: buyers go on strike not wanting to catch a falling knife, causing sellers to drop prices further.

Rubino cites recent statistics that may indicate the US national housing market is finally entering Stage 2 after a rip-roaring decade of recovery since the bursting of the 2007 housing bubble: » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Yes, The Central Banks Really Are Starting To Tighten

Expect EVERYTHING you know about the markets to change
Tuesday, July 10, 2018, 10:40 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • Tesla As A Symbol Of Silicon Valley
    • Way more hype than substance right now
  • Are Central Banks Really Starting To Tighten?
    • It's looking like indeed so
  • How The Rising Dollar Is Killing Emerging Markets
    • It's just math. Really cruel math.
  • Popping Of The Global Housing Bubble?
    • Australia may be leading the way down

The Fed has reduced its balance sheet so far this year to the tune of $100 billion, and is hoping to be reducing at the rate of $50 billion per month by October. The ECB has announced it will stop making purchases by the end of the year. And, surpringly, even the profligate Bank of Japan is showing signs of reducing its balance sheet.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
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The Marginal Buyer Holds The Pin That Pops Every Asset Bubble

So it's important to watch him very closely
Friday, August 19, 2016, 2:01 AM

Those of you who took an Economics class in college may remember the saying that prices are set "at the margin". That's a fancy way to say that prices are set by the person (or people) willing to pay the most.

This person willing to pay top dollar is called the "marginal buyer". Most of us don't really think about him, but he (or she) is very, very important.

Why? Because the marginal buyer not only determines price levels, but also their stability and degree of volatility. The behavior of the marginal buyer, as well as the degree of competition for his/her "top dog" spot, sets the prices of nearly every asset class held by today's investors. » Read more

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How Much Longer Can Our Unaffordable Housing Prices Last?

Spoiler alert: not much
Friday, October 9, 2015, 5:12 PM

Markets discover price via supply and demand: Big demand + limited supply = rising prices. Abundant supply + sagging demand = declining prices.

Eventually, prices rise to a level that is unaffordable to the majority of potential buyers, with demand coming only from the wealthy. That’s the story of housing in New York City, the San Francisco Bay Area and other desirable locales that are currently magnets for global capital. » Read more

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Understanding Asset Bubbles - Crash Course Chapter 17

Why they form & how they pop
Friday, October 10, 2014, 7:21 PM

Through the long sweep of history, the bursting of asset bubbles has nearly always been traumatic.  Social, political and economic upheavals have a bad habit of following asset bubbles, while wealth destruction is a guaranteed feature. » Read more

Featured Discussion

At Last

At Last

Angelo Mozillo to be sued by the US Government

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Is This Decline The Real Deal?

Or just another head-fake bear trap?
Wednesday, August 6, 2014, 10:36 AM

Is this stock market decline the "real deal"? (that is, the start of a serious correction of 10% or more) Or is it just another garden-variety dip in the long-running Bull market? Let’s start by looking for extremes that tend to mark the tops in Bull markets. » Read more

video

This chapter of the new Crash Course series has not yet been made available to the public.

Each week over the rest of 2014, in sequential order, a new chapter will be made publicly available (we've currently published up to Chapter 15)

If you don't want to wait, you can:

 

 

 

 

Insider

Off the Cuff: The Turning of the Tide?

Are we witnessing the beginning of a secular reversal?
Thursday, May 23, 2013, 12:17 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles discuss:

  • Bubbles Everywhere
    • How worried should we be?
  • Shaky Sovereigns
    • Will Japan or Europe stumble first? (looks like Japan)
  • Gold's Gilded Future
    • Down for all the wrong reasons
  • Cui bono?
    • Who is reaping the gains of the current market monkeying?

This is a must-listen Off the Cuff episode given the events of the past 24 hours. » Read more

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Investors Beware: Market Risks Today Are Higher than Ever

It's time to start worrying about the bond market
Thursday, March 21, 2013, 4:42 PM

After the shot across the bow in 2008, you might have expected regulators and market participants would use the experience to change for the better, to become more prudent, and to reduce the sorts of risky behaviors that almost crashed the entire system.

Unfortunately, you'd be wrong. » Read more