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Peak Prosperity

Peak Cheap Oil - Crash Course Chapter 20

Still a very big, very real, threat to our way of life
Friday, November 7, 2014, 7:31 PM

Energy is the lifeblood of any economy.  But when an economy is based on an exponential debt-based money system and that is based on exponentially increasing energy supplies, the supply of that energy therefore deserves our very highest attention.

What’s clearly at work here is that we’re finding more oil, but it’s expensive. Yet total global demand for oil will climb as developing countries expand their economies and world population continues to grow. Competition for hydrocarbons will become more fierce than it has ever been. » Read more

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Peak Prosperity

Energy Economics - Crash Course Chapter 19

THE reason why growth will be more scarce in the future
Friday, October 24, 2014, 7:45 PM

The central point to this latest video is this: as we’ve shown in previous chapters of the Crash Course, our global economy depends on continual growth to function. And not just any kind of growth; but exponential growth.

But in order to grow, it must receive an ever-increasing input supply of affordable energy and resources from the natural world. What I’m about to show you is a preponderance of data that indicates those inputs will just not be there in the volumes needed to supply the growth that the world economy is counting on. » Read more

Featured Discussion

VIDEO: Chris on Falling Oil Prices

VIDEO: Chris on Falling Oil Prices

What will their impact be? And how long will they last?

Featured Discussion

Peak Oil and the Future of Energy

Peak Oil and the Future of Energy

Reader HughK live blogs from the 2nd international congress in Barbastro, Spain

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Ready Or Not...

The unsustainable status quo is ending
Thursday, September 25, 2014, 4:00 PM

If risk has been taken from where it belongs and instead shuffled onto central bank balance sheets, or allowed to be hidden by new and accommodating accounting tricks, has it really disappeared? In my world, risk is like energy: it can neither be created nor destroyed, only transformed or transferred. 

If reality no longer has a place at the table -- such as when policy makers act as if the all-too-temporary shale oil bonanza is now a new permanent constant -- then the discussions happening around that table are only accidentally useful, if ever, and always delusional. » Read more

video

This chapter of the new Crash Course series has not yet been made available to the public.

Each week over the rest of 2014, in sequential order, a new chapter will be made publicly available (we've currently published up to Chapter 2)

If you don't want to wait, you can:

 

 

 

 

video

This chapter of the new Crash Course series has not yet been made available to the public.

Each week over the rest of 2014, in sequential order, a new chapter will be made publicly available (we've currently published up to Chapter 20)

 

If you don't want to wait, you can:

  • Enroll today to watch this new chapter right now (as well as all the other chapters of the new Crash Course)

 

 

 

 

video

This chapter of the new Crash Course series has not yet been made available to the public.

Each week over the rest of 2014, in sequential order, a new chapter will be made publicly available (we've currently published up to Chapter 21)

If you don't want to wait, you can:

 

 

 

 

Insider

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Oil at Risk

Get ready for $150 per barrel oil?
Monday, June 16, 2014, 12:57 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why this Iraq crisis comes at a very vulnerable time for world oil markets
  • The three mostly likely outcomes to the current crisis, and the resulting oil price of each
    1. ISIS remains contained from here
    2. ISIS takes Bagdad and points south
    3. A more widespread Middle East conflict erupts
  • The growing risk to the global economy & financial markets
  • What concerned individuals should do now

If you have not yet read Iraq Breaks Down, Oil Surges, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The biggest risk to the world economy from the developing Iraq situation is that the price of oil could spike higher, killing the sputtering economic 'recovery' and triggering both a new global Recession and financial crisis.

Now, here's the truly interesting part of where we are in this story.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) has recently called for OPEC to deliver more oil by year end, which I wrote about here, and especially called upon Saudi Arabia to do so because world oil supplies are incredibly tight right now.  OPEC is the only entity in the world with any identifiable 'swing production', as all of the non-OPEC nations are alrady producing at maximum capacity. At least, the hope is that OPEC has additional production capacity.

In the prior piece mentioned, I wrote that of the 12 OPEC members, 8 are in a sustained decline trend for a variety of geological or political reasons. Only 4 are not. Only 1 actually has shown a significant increase in oil production over the past few years -- and that was Iraqwhich had added 1.5 mbd recently:

Here's what's at risk if the ISIS rebels push further south:

(Source)

The IEA is already calling on OPEC to deliver 1.2 mbd more by year end 2014. If Iraq's production is lost, then we can just add that amount to the 'needed total' that the IEA has requested be brought on line by Saudi Arabia, an amount that I already sincerely doubt they can meet. If even a portion of Iraq's production is lost, then we can just kiss $110 barrel good-bye and say hello to $150 per barrel oil. War is messy and it's never easy to predict what might happen, but we'd be foolish to not consider what might happen here.

The true game-changer for the world will come when... » Read more

Insider

Ciprian Stremtan/Shutterstock

The Trouble with Numbers

Our 'good' data worsens the closer we look
Tuesday, June 10, 2014, 12:06 PM

According to the ever-strident popular press, the world is in recovery. The stock market says so, the bond market says so, and the politicians and monetary bureaucrats all say so.

The only trouble is the central banks continue to flood the world with liquidity, something they shouldn't need to be doing if a true recovery were really upon us. » Read more