central banks

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Why I Went A Little More Short Today

The list making me nervous is growing fast
Monday, April 11, 2016, 10:26 PM

I've been slowly layering into a short position against the US S&P 500 stock market. At this rate, I plan to be 80% short in my trading and retirement accounts by the end of May. You know “Sell in May and go away.” I am now at 45%.

That’s my general strategy here. 

My reasons for building up this short position are many.  Here are a few of them. » Read more

Podcast

Jim Rickards: The New Case For Gold

A powerful set of arguments for owning the yellow metal
Monday, April 4, 2016, 12:32 AM

Monetary expert Jim Rickards returns this week to share the insights from his latest work The New Case For Gold, a detailed and highly-researched study of the fundamentals likely to drive the price of gold bullion in the years to come.

Rickards is quite confident that the price is going higher -- much higher in fact -- as the current world fit currency regimes falter, to be replaced by ones backed (at least in part) by bullion.

On the way to that outcome, expect the price to be subject to the geopolitical interests and aims of the largest players on the chessboard. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Trapped By TINA

Central banks are learning 'There Is No Alternative'
Friday, March 18, 2016, 8:23 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Trapped By TINA
    • Central banks find themselves out of options
  • Under Pressure
    • Those higher up the wage curve are finding themselves struggling more
  • Fear As A Social Control Tool
    • We're being sold it much more than we realize
  • Taking Control
    • A better future will come from our own hands, not those of our leaders
Blog

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The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme

To preserve capital, you need to outsmart the monkey
Friday, March 11, 2016, 3:16 PM

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:

"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship."

(Source)

In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey. » Read more

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Why I’m Now Short The US Equity Markets

After 7 long years of waiting...
Tuesday, March 1, 2016, 12:55 AM

In the interests of full disclosure and of keeping you abreast of my personal investment actions, I entered a short position on Friday for the first time since 2009. Yes, it’s been seven years.

The equity markets have been all but bulletproof for 6 years, but I think that phase has ended and we’re in for a rough ride from here on out.  At least until stocks fall far enough for the central banks to have another go at attempting to print up prosperity.

First, I think that the stock rally of late is overdone and there’s more downside to come.  I have a whole host of supporting reasons based on credit markets and global trade, but we’ll get... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: The Coming Capital Controls

Dan Amerman lists the many ways we will get fleeced
Friday, February 19, 2016, 5:52 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Daniel Amerman discuss:

  • The Wide Extent Of Central Bank Intervention
    • And the resulting Franken""markets""
  • The Coming Era Of Capital Controls
    • The war on our money is just getting started
  • Don't Underestimate The Incompetence Of Our Leaders
    • Central banks are more stupid than evil
  • Political Risk To The Markets Is Greater Than We Realize
    • It's the trigger everyone is discounting
Blog

The Return Of Crisis

Suddenly banks everywhere are in deep, deep trouble
Tuesday, February 9, 2016, 12:28 AM

Financial markets the world over are increasingly chaotic and either retreating or plunging.  Our view is that there’s a gigantic market crash in our future and it’s possible that this has started now. » Read more

Podcast

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New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way

Preserving your financial capital
Sunday, January 24, 2016, 1:16 PM

Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.

So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far -- evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.

We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward. » Read more

Blog

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The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

And it sure looks angry
Friday, January 15, 2016, 8:53 PM

As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis? » Read more

Podcast

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David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner

With very few places for capital to hide
Saturday, December 26, 2015, 9:05 PM

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis. » Read more