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New Harbor: A Time For Staying Out Of Harms Way

Preserving your financial capital
Sunday, January 24, 2016, 1:16 PM

Given the brutal start to the markets in the first three weeks of 2016, we thought it a good time to check in with the team at New Harbor Financial. We have had them on our podcast periodically over the past years as the market churned to ever new highs, and have always appreciated their skepticism of these liquidity-driven ""markets"" as well as their unwavering commitment to risk management should the party in stocks end suddenly.

So, how is their risk-managed approach faring now that the S&P 500 has suddenly dropped 8% since Christmas? Quite well. Their general portfolio is flat for the year so far -- evidence that caution, prudence and hedging can indeed preserve capital during market downdrafts.

We've invited the New Harbor team back on this week to hear their latest assessment on the markets, as well as how they're approaching their portfolio positioning moving forward. » Read more

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The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

And it sure looks angry
Friday, January 15, 2016, 8:53 PM

As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis? » Read more

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David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner

With very few places for capital to hide
Saturday, December 26, 2015, 9:05 PM

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis. » Read more

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The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold

We're at a moment of historic opportunity
Tuesday, December 8, 2015, 12:53 PM

Every year or two we update this report, which lays out the investment thesis for gold. Here is this year's version.

Silver is touched upon only as necessary; as a separate report of equal scope is required for that precious metal.

Gold is one of the few investments that every investor should have in their portfolio. We are now at the dangerous end-game period of a very bold but very reckless & disappointing experiment with the world's fiat (unbacked) currencies. If this experiment fails -- and we observe it's in the process of failing -- gold will provide one of the best forms of wealth insurance. But like all insurance products, it only works if you buy it before you need to rely on it. » Read more

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Using Gold to Protect Yourself In Advance of the Greatest Wealth Transfer of Our Lifetime

Where & how much to buy, when to sell
Tuesday, December 8, 2015, 12:52 PM

Executive Summary

  • Calculating the "floor" beneath which gold will likely not fall
  • The coming Great Wealth Transfer, which almost certainly will occur in our lifetime
  • How much to invest in gold
  • How to invest in gold
  • Exit strategies: when will it make sense to sell your holdings? And what should you exchange them for?

The Floor

The one place that I most like to buy something is as close to its replacement value as I can.  And the replacement value for gold is both below its current price of $1,080 and rising steadily. There’s a floor under the price of gold which, like any mined substance, is determined by the cost to get more of it out of the ground.

As has been true for all mining and oil production, the all-in costs of getting gold out of the ground have been rising, and rising sharply, for many years.  Currently the all-in cost to produce gold, across the whole industry, is more than $1,200 per ounce.

Today we're seeing lots of signs of obvious distress among gold producers because the price of gold is below their cost of production.  This will cause supply to... » Read more

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Mike Maloney: The Rollercoaster Crash

An updated look on the coming global currency re-set
Sunday, November 22, 2015, 12:53 PM

Precious metals sank to 5-year lows during this past week. The long painful price decline that began at the end of 2011 still continues unabated. Holders of gold & silver are understandably wondering if their faith in precious metals has been misplaced. » Read more

Insider

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Time To Review

Markets are soaring on terrible, awful data
Tuesday, November 3, 2015, 12:37 AM

Back in August things were falling apart.  Macro-economic indicators were steadily worsening, corporate profits and revenues were suddenly falling, and US unemployment came in far worse than expected.

Of course in today's bizzarro logic, that meant only one thing:  the equity “”markets”” were going to be bid up, and gold was going to be held in check.

Both have not only come to pass, but have done so in spectacular fashion. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Deploy The Flying Pigs!

All rationality has left the markets
Monday, October 26, 2015, 5:06 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Looks Like We'll Need A Bigger Bazooka
    • Draghi hints at more QE
  • The Schizophrenic Fed
    • Exploring both raising & lowering rates
  • No Rationality Left
    • Depression-level results RAISES stocks?
  • Banning Physical Cash
    • Still the plan of the central bank cartel

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?

Why the recent volatility may mark a secular shift
Friday, October 23, 2015, 4:12 PM

Emotions are running high for the investment community in the wake of recent market volatility. Up until August, we had been in the third longest period in market history without a 10% correction. Since then, stock indices sold off hard, only to bounce once again over the past two weeks of trading.

And certainly the truth is….No one knows. Especially in today’s world where global central banks can concoct further QE/monetary schemes at the drop of a hat.  Let’s face it, at this point the global central banks are all in. In fact, beyond all in. Without question, the US Fed knows that if equities fall, they lose the high end consumer. (Wal-Mart shoppers have already long been lost)  » Read more

Insider

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Why The Next Drop Will Likely Be 30-40%

A re-awakened bear can do a lot of damage to a bubble market
Friday, October 23, 2015, 4:12 PM

Executive Summary

  • New bear market + re-enter recession = 30-40% drop in stock prices
  • What are the chart of the best technical indicators telling us?
  • Confusion reigns during the transition from bull market to bear
  • Why volatility will reign & capital protection should be prioritized

If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It’s The Global Economy, Stupid!

I believe another key question for equity investors right now is whether the recent noticeable slowing in global economic trajectory ultimately results in recession.  Why is this important?  According to the playbook of historical experience, stock market corrections that occur in non-recessionary environments tend to be shorter and less violent than corrections that take place within the context of actual economic recession.  Corrections in non-recessionary environments have been on average contained to the 10-20% range.  Corrective stock price periods associated with recession have been worse, many associated with 30-40% price declines known as “bear market” environments.

We can see exactly this in the following graph.  We are looking at the Dow Jones Global Index.  This is a composite of the top 350 companies on planet Earth.  If the fortunes of these companies do not represent and reflect the rhythm of the global economy, I do not know what does.  The blue bars marked in the chart are the periods covering last two US recessions.  US recessions that were accompanied by downturns in major developed economies globally.  As I’ve stated many a time, economies globally are.... » Read more