central banks

Insider

Off The Cuff: Making Sense Of The FOMC Decision

The likely impacts of this week's Fed and BOJ (in)actions
Wednesday, September 21, 2016, 11:33 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • Fed In A Box
    • At this point, stalling is Yellen's only option
  • Boneheaded BOJ
    • Now trying to undue the damage of its recent NIRP policies
  • Blind To Bubbles
    • Central banks are unwilling to admit they're the cause of the problem, not the solution
  • Bad Policies
    • Capitalism is getting destroyed (and a bad rap) by central banks run amok

In the wake of the closely-watched announcements by the BOJ and the Federal Reserve, Chris and Axel sit down in this meaty discussion to pick through the particulars of what this week's announcement mean. In a world where everything hangs on the decisions of an elite few central banks, this is one of the more important podcasts we've released in a while. » Read more

Podcast

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Michael Pento: The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse

All asset classes will collapse in tandem when this bursts
Sunday, September 18, 2016, 1:42 PM

In this week's podcast, Michael Pento, fund manager and author of The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse, explains how the United States is fast approaching the end stage of the biggest asset bubble in history. He describes how the bursting of this bubble will cause a massive interest rate shock that will send the US consumer economy and the US government—pumped up by massive Treasury debt—into bankruptcy, an event that will send shockwaves throughout the global economy: » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: Should The Central Banks Just Buy Everything?

That's what they're on their way to doing
Thursday, September 1, 2016, 7:19 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Should The Central Banks Just Buy Everything?
    • Is that the plan? What would happen?
  • Turning Japanese
    • Japan is leading the way by monetizing all its assets
  • Putting The Fed On Trial
    • Chris fantasizes about holding up the mirror of truth to power
  • The Next Interest Rate Move
    • Up or down?

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

Podcast

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Mike Maloney: This Is The Peak

To be followed by 'one hell of a crisis'
Sunday, August 28, 2016, 3:09 PM

Precious metals dealer and monetary historian Mike Maloney is quite confident the liquidity-driven 'recovery' created by the world's central banks is now over. In his estimation, the path ahead is one of accelerating descent into inevitable currency destruction. » Read more

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Dreamstime

The Marginal Buyer Holds The Pin That Pops Every Asset Bubble

So it's important to watch him very closely
Friday, August 19, 2016, 2:01 AM

Those of you who took an Economics class in college may remember the saying that prices are set "at the margin". That's a fancy way to say that prices are set by the person (or people) willing to pay the most.

This person willing to pay top dollar is called the "marginal buyer". Most of us don't really think about him, but he (or she) is very, very important.

Why? Because the marginal buyer not only determines price levels, but also their stability and degree of volatility. The behavior of the marginal buyer, as well as the degree of competition for his/her "top dog" spot, sets the prices of nearly every asset class held by today's investors. » Read more

Insider

Hoping For A Market Crash

If we inflate much higher, the fall is likely to kill us
Thursday, July 28, 2016, 1:32 AM

We desperately need to have new national and global conversations about everything from how we’ll feed everyone in 2050, to developing a coherent sustainable energy policy, to the fact that each year is hotter than the year before, to the idea that we’re living with a soul crushing sense of scarcity in a world of abundance.

There’s lots that needs addressing, and the process should begin with letting go of the old narrative so that we can make space for assembling the new one. » Read more

Blog

Making The Wrong Choices For The Wrong Reasons

Why we're on a collision-course with crisis
Friday, July 22, 2016, 8:54 PM

Life is full of examples where folks make bad choices for noble reasons. Not every decision is a winner: sometimes you make the right call, sometimes you don't.

  • In 1962, Decca Records passed on signing a young new band because it thought that guitar-based groups were falling out of favor. That band was The Beatles.
  • Napolean Bonaparte calculated he could conquer Russia by assembling one of the largest invading forces the world has ever seen. He marched towards Moscow in the summer of 1812 with over 650,000 troops. Less than six months later, he retreated in failure, his forces decimated down to a mere 27,000 effective soldiers.
  • 1985 217 separate investors turned down an entrepreneur trying to raise the relatively modest sum of $1.6 million for his vision of transforming a daily routine shared by millions around the world. That company? Starbucks.  

In these cases, those making the decision made what they felt was the best choice given the information available to them at the time. That's completely understandable and defensible. Fate is fickle, and no one is 100% right 100% of the time.

But what's much harder to condone -- and this is the focus of this article -- is when people embrace the wrong decision even when they have ample evidence and comprehension that doing so runs counter to their welfare. » Read more

Podcast

Grant Williams: The Rising Danger Of A Bidless Market

We risk a future of flash crashes as liquidity dries up
Sunday, July 17, 2016, 12:18 PM

Grant Williams, veteran portfolio and strategy advisor, as well as proprietor of the economic blog Things That Make You Go Hmmm returns to the podcast this week to discuss his great concern about the liquidity risk underlying financial markets long-addicted to central bank rescue stimulus. » Read more

Blog

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The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets

A global sea-change in risk appetite & sentiment
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

In the conventional investment perspective, risk-on assets (i.e. investments with higher risks and higher potential returns) such as stocks are on a see-saw with risk-off assets (investments with lower returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds). When risk appetites are high, institutional managers and speculators move money into stocks and high-yield junk bonds, and move money out of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

But recently, markets are no longer following this convention. Safe haven assets such as precious metals and Treasuries are soaring at the same time that stock markets bounced strongly off the post-Brexit lows.

Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. 

What the heck is going on? » Read more

Insider

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Investing For Crisis

The future of stocks, gold & safe havens
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

Executive Summary

  • Which coming developments we can predict with certainty
  • Why the next crisis won't be like 2008
  • Why what worked post-2008 won't work this time
  • Where stocks and gold are headed
  • Where to find safe haven for your investment capital

If you have not yet read The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the market’s risk-on, risk-off gyrations and laid out the case for long-term declines in confidence, political stability and profits.  What does this new era of uncertainty mean for individual investors?

What’s Predictable?

We can start by asking—is there anything we can predict with any certainty?

I think we can very confidently predict that future central bank monetary policies will fail to generate sustainable growth or fix what’s broken in the global financial system.

I think we can predict that uncertainty will only increase with time rather than decrease. This rise of uncertainty will predictably lower the attractiveness of risk-on assets, other than as short-term speculative bets after some central banker issues yet another “whatever it takes” proclamation.

It’s also a pretty good bet that if central banks and states continue expanding credit/money that isn’t matched by a corresponding expansion of goods and services, the purchasing power of those currencies will decline.

We can very confidently predict that the authorities will continue to do more of what has failed spectacularly until they are removed from power or the system breaks down.

We can predict with some confidence that issuing more debt will provide little productive results.

I also think we can hazard a guess that the next financial crisis will be of a different sort than the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown.

Just as generals prepare to fight the last war, with predictably dismal results (unless the exact same war is replayed, which rarely seems to happen), central bankers are fully prepared to stave off a crisis like the one in 2008: a financial crisis that emerges from leveraged bets going bad in money-center investment banks.

My basic presumption is... » Read more