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2018: The Year Everything Changed

Long-time trends are breaking down
Friday, April 13, 2018, 3:42 PM

Since the rescuing of the financial system in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, the world has enjoyed a steady upward trajectory of "prosperity. After bottoming in March 2009, stock indices have more than quadrupled. Bonds and real estate have rose to record highs. Market volatility essentially disappeared. The unemployment rate has dropped to the lowest levels in memory. It's been nearly a decade now of smooth sailing and easy returns.

That's all now changing. » Read more

Podcast

hdbuilder.eu

Simon Black: Priced To Fantasy

Stock prices today simply aren't justifiable
Tuesday, April 10, 2018, 11:53 AM

Chris and I have been on a ship this week, presenting at The Real Estate Investor Summit At Sea.

We were able to steal away for an hour to sit down with fellow presenter Simon Black (founder of SovereignMan.com) and this excellent discussion ensued. We didn't have any agenda prepared; it's just us three riffing and sharing our thoughts on the most likely implications of the biggest macro risks that have our attention right now. » Read more

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This Is The Turning Point

The driving trends of the past decade are now reversing
Friday, April 6, 2018, 11:32 PM

The saying "the worm has turned" refers to the moment when the downtrodden have finally had enough, and turn on their powerful oppressors.

The worms have finally turned against the privileged elites -- who have benefited so greatly from globalization, corruption, central bank stimulus and the profiteering of state-enforced cartels. » Read more

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Dreamstime

Off The Cuff: The Coming Crisis Is Not Only Inevitable, It's Needed

We'll be better off for it (if we survive it)
Thursday, April 5, 2018, 11:22 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Manipulated Markets
    • The plunge protection team is not sidelined yet
  • Manipulated Politics
    • Trade, and possibly kinetic, wars are being engineered deliberately
  • The Silver Lining Of The Next Great Financial Crisis
    • It should put us on sounder footing, if we survive it
  • Positioning To Profit From The Next Crash
    • There are asset classes and trading strategies that hold great promise

John Rubino delivers a hard-hitting rebuke of the current debt-based global fiat money regime, along with its current massive volumes of money printing, and explains why he not only predicts the system must crash, but that we'll be better off for it (should we survive it).

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Dreamstime

Wolf Richter: The Era Of The Fed "Put" Is Over

It now wants lower asset prices (just not too fast)
Monday, April 2, 2018, 3:39 PM

To all those investors expecting the Fed to step in to backstop the recent weakness seen in the stock market, Wolf Richter warns: The cavalry isn't coming.

After years of force-feeding too much liquidity into world markets, the central banking cartel is now aware of the Franken-markets it has created. And now with a new head at the US Federal Reserve, and soon at the ECB, central bankers have shifted their priority from supporting asset prices to now actively engineering lower prices. » Read more

Podcast

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Fred Hickey: Why A Lifelong Technology Expert Favors Owning Gold

It's the safest & most undervalued asset today
Monday, February 19, 2018, 2:35 PM

Fred Hickey, frequent cited expert on Bloomberg News and Barron's Roundtable, has been publishing his author extremely well-respected investment newsletter, The High-Tech Strategist, for 31 years. And he is more worried about the state of the financial markets today than he's ever been

Ironically, this lifelong expert in "all things technology" has concluded that gold (the "barbaric relic") is the sanest asset to put one's capital in these days -- both due to its safety factor and it's current level of undervaluation. He expects the precious metals to fare well during the downward market volatility he foresees, and he is now tracking the mining stocks closely as he predicts they will experience dramatic appreciation from here. » Read more

Insider

It's Even Worse Than You Think

A massive price correction is both inevitable & overdue
Friday, February 16, 2018, 8:58 PM

Executive Summary

  • Just how rampant is the fraud in today's markets?
  • How last week's volatility spike nearly crashed the system
  • Why a massive price correction is both necessary, inevitable & overdue
  • Why the future of our democracy itself hangs in the balance

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Worst Threat We Face Is Right Here At Home, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

As I recently wrote, what broke in early February was volatility itself.  The volatility trade is one where tremendous firepower is concentrated because of a massive concentration of computer trading strategies that are all keyed off of volatility.

One of them is the so-called “risk-parity” trade, where computers are balancing and rebalancing a blended portfolio of stocks and bonds based entirely off of what the volatility index is doing.

So if volatility is falling, these algorithms are buying stocks.  Said another way, if you wanted to rig the cash market to go higher, you could either buy a huge amount of stocks directly, or you could buy a much smaller amount of index futures. Or you buy sell an even tinier amount of volatility.

If you sold volatility, you're be said to be “short volatility.” 

And who is “short volatility”, as revealed in their most recently released meeting notes? The Federal Reserve.

This is critically important because...

 

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Red Screen At Morning, Investor Take Warning

It's time for safety. And it's beginning to pay better, too
Friday, February 9, 2018, 9:12 PM

Growing up as I did in coastal New England, this old rhyme was drilled into us as children:

Red sky at night, sailor's delight;

Red sky at morning, sailor take warning.

I'm reminded of this rhyme because the markets are giving us a clear "red sky" warning right now. One that comes after (too) many years of uninterrupted fair winds and smooth sailing.

 
Insider

Dreamstime

Is This It?

Has the next Great Financial Crisis just started?
Friday, February 2, 2018, 9:58 PM

Executive Summary

  • The significance of the recent spike in interest rates
  • Is the US dollar weakness a sign of other countries walking away from the US?
  • Are rising oil prices serving to pop the market bubble (as predicted)? Where are they headed from here?
  • Is this it? Is the top in? And if so, what should concerned investors do right now?

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Central Bank’s Reign of Error, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Is this it then?  Is the top in?  The last few days have been extremely turbulent in the markets with the Dow Jones declining nearly 1,000 points in just this week.

Given the smoke swirling around the global rise in interest rates, I’m certain there’s something afoot.  The real question is whether or not the central banks are going to step in here to rescue everything again.

Alas, I don’t have access to that information but a betting person would say “yes.”  Everything they’ve done over the past 10 years has communicated quite clearly that the central banks are terrified of the Franken-Markets they’ve created.  Specifically, they are terrified of them going down and revealing the extent of the fraud.

However, we have to remain alert to the idea that the markets are indeed larger than the central banks, at least when they begin to move in earnest, and that the central banks have not been able to alter the laws of reality.  Resources matter.  Debt levels matter.  Leverage matters.  Well, eventually they do, and maybe that time has come?

If so, we all need to be ready for a very rocky ride ahead because... » Read more

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It's Looking A Lot Like 2008 Now...

Did today's market plunge mark the start of the next crash?
Friday, February 2, 2018, 9:57 PM

Economic and market conditions are eerily like they were in late 2007/early 2008.

Remember back then? Everything was going great. Home prices were soaring. Jobs were plentiful.

The great cultural marketing machine was busy proclaiming that a new era of permanent prosperity had dawned, thanks to the steady leadership of Alan Greenspan and later Ben Bernanke. And only a small cadre of cranks, like me, was singing a different tune; warning instead that a painful reckoning in our financial system was approaching fast.

It's fitting that I'm writing this on Groundhog Day, as to these veteran eyes, it sure has been looking a lot like late 2007/early 2008 lately... » Read more