central banks

Podcast

Lightspring/Shuttestock

Brien Lundin: If They Don't Want You To Own It, You Probably Should

The wisdom (and challenges) of owning safe haven assets
Monday, August 14, 2017, 8:39 PM

One of the most perplexing mysteries to us is that right as the Federal Reserve embarked on QE3 -- which was a huge, enormous, $85 billion a month experiment -- commodities began a multiyear decline within two weeks of that announcement. Concurrently, the world’s central banks plunged the world into steeply negative real interest rates, a condition that has almost always resulted in booming commodity prices -- but not this time. Today, the ratio between commodity prices and equities is at one of, if not the most, extreme points in history.

To explain that gap, we talk this week with Brien Lundin, publisher of Gold Newsletter and producer of the New Orleans Investment Conference (where Chris and Adam are speaking on Oct 25-28): » Read more

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Signs Of Distress

The need to change is becoming more obvious than ever
Friday, August 11, 2017, 10:06 PM

The world is edging closer to the final moments after which everything will be forever changed.

Grand delusions, perpetuated over decades, will finally hit the limits of reality and collapse in on themselves.

We’re over-budget and have eaten deeply into the principal balances of all of our main trust accounts. We are ecologically overdrawn, financially insolvent, monetarily out past the Twilight Zone, consuming fossil fuels (as in literally eating them), and adding 80,000,000 net souls to the planet’s surface -- each year! -- without regard to the consequences.

Someday there will be hell to pay financially, economically, and ecologically as there simply isn’t any way to maintain these overdrafts forever. Reality does not renegotiate. Its deal terms aren't compromisable. » Read more

Podcast

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Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
Monday, August 7, 2017, 2:42 PM

"The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time. » Read more

Insider

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Off The Cuff: The Pin To Pop This Bubble?

Political instability is becoming a top risk
Thursday, July 27, 2017, 1:55 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Dave Fairtex discuss:

  • Whither These Markets Goest From Here?
    • Lots of scary data, but Dr. Copper is feeling lucky
  • Revisiting The Ka-POOM Theory
    • Might we avoid the Ka and go directly to POOM?
  • The Impact of Artificial Intelligence
    • It surely a game changer. But how?
  • Gold
    • Are the recent moves just a head-fake?

Dave Fairtex, PeakProsperity.com's precious metals daily analyst from Singapore, joins Chris this week to opine on a wide range of topics from the markets, to AI, to the refugee crisis in Europe. The two spend time talking about where the catalyst for a market correction is most likely to come from. And while there is a plethora of candidates, Dave sees political risk as topping the list:

My sense is that I think the central planners have the monetary thing wired. Let’s take the ECB. They have figured out a way to make it so that strictly monetary issues don’t cause problems anymore.

So what that leaves us with is political problems. That’s why I'm looking at what’s happening here, with the migrants in Europe and all the rest of it.Trump was an indicator that the central banks have the money stuff nailed down, but they don’t have the political movements fully under control.

So the longer-term stuff about screwing the savers and all the rest of it – that stuff they can’t control. I don’t know; maybe money printing works until the political situation changes. That’s where I’m leaning right now. 

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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What To Do With Your Cash?

Is it folly to hold cash right now? Or brilliant?
Saturday, July 22, 2017, 12:19 AM

Have you moved a material percentage of your financial portfolio to cash? Have you become so concerned about the meteoric ramp upwards in asset prices that you find it wiser instead to move to the sidelines, build "dry powder", and wait to re-enter the markets at saner valuations?

If so, you have my sympathies.

The past 5+ years have been brutal for savers pursuing this strategy. I know this well, as I'm one of those folks, too. » Read more

Insider

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Off The Cuff: No More Financial Crises "In Our Lifetime"

Did Janet Yellen really just say that???
Friday, June 30, 2017, 2:04 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris discusses:

  • Market Jitters
    • What will happen if the central banks turn off the money?
  • No More Financial Crises "In Our Lifetime"
    • Did Janet Yellen really just say that???
  • Our States Are Falling Into Bankruptcy...
    • Illinois, Connecticut, Maine & more
  • While The Banks Get Even Fatter
    • Income from excess reserves to rise to $50 Trillion by 2019

This week, Chris takes a moment to share his thoughts in depth on where we are in the global debt saga. The overhang is getting worse, growth is not riding to the rescue as hoped, and the central banks are running out of both smoke and mirrors to keep the game continuing. Should the $200 billion monthly bonanza of central bank liquidity start decreasing -- as is now being increasingly discussed -- expect markets to go south quickly.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Off The Cuff: The Approaching Minsky Moment

The world is unprepared for the reset heading our way
Wednesday, June 21, 2017, 9:00 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • A Study In Failure Of The State
    • Chris shares his on-the-ground observations from So. America
  • It Can Happen Here
    • Mish shares his on-the-ground observations from Illinois
  • Virtually All The Macroeconomic Data Is Miserable
    • Yet the Fed & the markets are acting like everything's great
  • The Approaching Minsky Moment
    • It's a matter of if, not when

This week's Off The Cuff discussion is an interesting one. Both Chris and Mish have front-row seats to two failing governments -- Chris in Argentina, and Mish in Illinois. It feels to them like they are getting a preview of the economic pain soon to come to the rest of the world.

Both are *very* concerned that citizens and investors across the globe are being duped by the (lack of) signals and messages today's ""markets"" are providing. Looking at the steady drumbeat of bad & worsening macroeconomic data, as well as the immense gap between fundamentals and asset prices, Chris and Mish are as confident as they have ever been that a massive painful reset is nigh. But too many of our leaders, and too much of the public, remain complacent/ignorant (willfully or not) regarding this risk. 

Their conclusion? The world is woefully unprepared for the Minsky moment headed its way.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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entrepreneur.com

The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles?

A worsening shortfall in new credit creation
Friday, June 16, 2017, 7:23 PM

Global macro economic data has been weak for many years, but there’s now a very real chance of a world-wide recession happening in 2017.

Why? A dramatic and worsening shortfall in new credit creation. » Read more

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Missed 'The End of Money' Webinar?

Not to worry. You can purchase a video of the full event.
Wednesday, June 14, 2017, 12:35 AM

If you didn't register earlier for the live webinar and are regretting having missed out on the event -- there's good news. » Read more

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Steen Jakobsen: 60% Probability Of Recession In The Next 18 Months

The world economic engine is slowing to a standstill
Sunday, June 11, 2017, 6:46 PM

Steen Jakobsen back on, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, returns to the podcast this week to share with us the warning signs of slowing economic growth he's seeing in major markets all over the world.

In his view, the world economy is sputtering badly. So badly, that he's confident predicting a global recession by 2018 -- or sooner. » Read more