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The Value Drivers Of Cryptocurrency

These factors will determine which coin(s) will win out
Friday, June 23, 2017, 9:27 PM

Executive Summary

  • The critical value of scarcity
  • Understanding the utility of the blockchain
  • Will (can?) governments ban cryptocurrencies?
  • A coming geometric explosion in the price of cryptocurrency?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed the exciting but confusing speculative boom phase of cryptocurrencies. Here in Part 2, we will contextualize this mad swirl by running it through two filters: scarcity and utility.

What’s Scarce? Scarcity Creates Value

Regardless of one’s economic ideology or system, scarcity creates value and abundance destroys value.  When we say supply and demand, we’re really talking about scarcity and abundance and the rise or fall of demand for the commodity, good or service.

In classical economic theory, scarcity is met with substitution: ground beef too expensive due to relative scarcity? Buy ground turkey instead.

But this model has weaknesses.  There aren’t always substitutes, or the substitutes are more expensive or problematic than what is now scarce. 

As a general rule, profits flow to any scarcity of goods and services with high utility value.  We value what’s scarce and useful, and place little value on what’s abundant and of limited utility.

Currency has three basic functions: a store of value (it will retain its purchasing power over time), means of exchange (we can use it to trade goods and services, pay debts, etc.) and as an accounting mechanism to track assets, debts, income, expenses and exchanges/trades.

We assume all currency has this function, but only currency that is easily divisible and easily tradable enables easy accounting.  If a notched stick is a unit of currency, and one stick buys a pig, what do I use for purchases smaller than a pig?

In today’s world, a currency must be.... » Read more

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Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom

A ground-level assessment
Friday, June 23, 2017, 9:26 PM

Today, there are hundreds of cryptocurrencies, and a speculative boom has pushed bitcoin from around $600 a year ago to $2600 and Ethereum, another leading cryptocurrency, from around $10 last year to $370.

Where are cryptocurrencies in the evolution from new technology to speculative boom to maturation? Judging by valuation leaps from $10 to $370, the technology is clearly in the speculative boom phase.

In trying to predict which forms of cryptocurrencies will dominate the mature marketplace of the future, we know that markets will sort the wheat from the chaff by a winnowing the entries down to those that solve real business problems (i.e. address scarcities) in ways that are cheap and robust and that cannot be solved by other technologies.
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Steen Jakobsen: 60% Probability Of Recession In The Next 18 Months

The world economic engine is slowing to a standstill
Sunday, June 11, 2017, 6:46 PM

Steen Jakobsen back on, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, returns to the podcast this week to share with us the warning signs of slowing economic growth he's seeing in major markets all over the world.

In his view, the world economy is sputtering badly. So badly, that he's confident predicting a global recession by 2018 -- or sooner. » Read more

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Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust

It's just not possible to print our way to prosperity
Friday, June 9, 2017, 7:38 PM

As much as I try, I simply cannot jump on the bandwagon that says that printing up money out of thin air has any long-term utility for an economy.

It's just too clear to me that doing so presents plenty of dangers, due what we might call 'economic gravity': What goes up, must also come down. » Read more

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REMINDER: The End Of Money Webinar

It's less than a week away. So register now!
Thursday, June 1, 2017, 1:02 PM

A reminder that our upcoming webinar, The End Of Money, happens in less than a week -- on Wednesday, June 7th.

If you haven't already, register for it now
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Off The Cuff: Buy The @%&^ Dip!

This phrase will be a widow-maker in the next downturn
Thursday, May 25, 2017, 5:20 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mike "Mish" Shedlock discuss:

  • Fake, Fictitious Markets
    • None of today's prices is justified by the underlying data
  • Death By Drowning
    • Too much liquidity is killing our markets
  • Housing Bubble Trouble?
    • Prices now declining in the San Francisco Bay Area
  • Buy The @%&^ Dip!
    • What will happen when this universal strategy no longer works?

After last week's brief re-emergence of volatility in the financial markets, the world's various sovereign plunge protection teams have been hard at work flooding liquidity into the system to push prices back up. Losses will not be tolerated!

And so the "Buy the dip!" crowd is victorious once again. This strategy, mindless as it is, has worked extremely well over the past 6 years -- due to an ever-present influx of 'thin air' $billions supplied by the central banks. But for many reasons, that mindless approach can't -- and won't -- continue forever. And likely not for much longer.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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How Long Can The Great Global Reflation Continue?

And what will happen when it ends?
Friday, May 19, 2017, 8:01 PM

Given the extraordinary failure of both Keynesian stimulus and private-sector credit growth to create a self-sustaining cycle of expansion whose benefits flow to the entire workforce rather than to the top few percent, what can we expect going forward? Can we just keep doubling and tripling the economy’s debt load every few years? What if household incomes continue declining? Are these trends sustainable?

In the near-term, is this Great Reflation running out of steam, or is it poised for yet another leg higher? Which is more likely? » Read more

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The End Of Money

Our first live event on our new webinar platform
Wednesday, May 10, 2017, 3:27 PM

Today's lofty asset prices are dependent on one thing far beyond all else: continued massive amounts of liquidity injected each and every month by the world's central banks.

Over $12 trillion in "thin air" money has been printed up by the world's central banks since the start of the Great Recession. And so far in 2017, a fresh $200 billion is added to the pile each month(!)

This makes the future price trajectory for stocks, bonds, real estate and nearly every other asset class more dependent on central bank policy than at any time in history. Investors need to ask: What are the central banks most likely to do next, and what will the repercussions be? » Read more

End Of Money Webinar - May 25, 2017 @ Noon EST

We here at PeakProsperity.com are particularly concerned about the central banks' next actions, as we believe their policies are creating the greatest wealth transfer of all time -- from the hard-earned savings of the public, and into the pockets of an elite few. (More on our conclusions can be read here).

Which is why, via our brand-new webinar platform, we're giving you insider access to several of the world's top experts on the central banking system, world currencies and financial markets.

During this 3-hour webinar, you'll hear their latest intelligence and forecasts AND be able to ask each speaker questions directly. This will be an amazingly rich and interactive experience.

Speaker bios & quotes

Register Now button

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G. Edward Griffin: Exposing The Creature From Jekyll Island

Hard truths from the man who wrote the book on the Fed
Sunday, April 23, 2017, 3:25 PM

G. Edward Griffin, the author of the seminal book on the formation of the Federal Reserve, The Creature of Jekyll Island, joins the podcast this week to add his perspective to our ongoing critical examination of the Fed and the impact its actions are having on society.

Ed's decades of research and critique of the Federal Reserve, sadly, have left him with conclusions that corroborate our own. Despite its carefully-crafted image as an essential public servant, Griffin concludes it is anything but. It is a private cartel that has connived its way to tremendous advantage and power, secretly (and not-so-secretly) plundering the American people of their treasure and freedoms. » Read more