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Tag Archives: wages

  • Podcast

    Art Berman: Like It Or Not, The Future Remains All About Oil

    And competition for it is heating up
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, January 23, 2018, 5:19 PM

    34

    Art Berman, 40-year veteran in the petroleum production industry and respected geological consultant, returns to the podcast this week to talk about oil.

    After the price of oil fell from its previous $100+/bbl highs to under $30/bbl in 2015, many declared dead the concerns raised by peak oil theorists. Headlines selling the "shale miracle" have sought to convince us that the US will one day eclipse Saudi Arabia in oil production. In short: cheap, plentiful oil is here to stay.

    How likely is this?

    Not at all, warns Berman. World demand for oil shows no signs of abating while the outlook for future production looks increasingly scant. And the competition among nations for this "master resource" will be much more intense in future decades than we've been used to.

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  • Blog
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    The Great Retirement Con

    Frankly put: retirement is now a myth for the majority
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, November 18, 2017, 12:25 AM

    13

    40 years ago, a grand experiment was embarked upon. One that promised US workers: using new 'defined contribution' retirement savings vehicles such as IRAs and 401k,, they'd be better off when they reached retirement age.

    Which raises a simple but very important question: How have things worked out?

     

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  • Blog

    The Inevitability Of DeGrowth

    Our current debt & energy orgy can't last much longer
    by charleshughsmith

    Saturday, July 8, 2017, 2:45 AM

    52

    Even though we don't know precisely how the future will unfold, we know a few things about it.

    Simply put, debt-dependent consumption in a world in which wages stagnate for the bottom 90% and energy costs increase as demand outstrips supply is a system with only one possible end-point: collapse.

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  • Blog
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    How Long Can The Great Global Reflation Continue?

    And what will happen when it ends?
    by charleshughsmith

    Saturday, May 20, 2017, 12:01 AM

    17

    Given the extraordinary failure of both Keynesian stimulus and private-sector credit growth to create a self-sustaining cycle of expansion whose benefits flow to the entire workforce rather than to the top few percent, what can we expect going forward? Can we just keep doubling and tripling the economy’s debt load every few years? What if household incomes continue declining? Are these trends sustainable?

    In the near-term, is this Great Reflation running out of steam, or is it poised for yet another leg higher? Which is more likely?

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  • Insider
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    The Fed Is Destroying the World One Saver At A Time

    Bernanke's new blog offers bloviating proof of that
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, April 7, 2015, 4:25 AM

    27

    I must confess to a deep-seated anger at just how insultingly stupid the world has become. As a sufferer of crisis fatigue I can be caught exclaiming You have got to be kidding me!!? several times per day, or perhaps shouting How dumb do they think we are?

    Three choice outbursts came last week as I read Bernanke’s new blog and came across statements like this one:

     

     

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  • Insider
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    Why Demand Will Become Even More Scarce

    Prospects for disinflation in 2014
    by Gregor Macdonald

    Tuesday, April 22, 2014, 5:14 PM

    20

    Executive Summary

    • Anemic employment & wages growth depresses the odds of near-term interest rate hikes
    • Why energy costs increases are experiencing a lull, keeping inflation lower than many expected
    • The demographic arguments for deflation
    • Why the US is becoming more vulnerable to a repricing of natural gas — vs oil — in the coming decade

    If you have not yet read Part I: When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The most recent US jobs report was once again a disappointment, despite the headline number of 192,000 jobs created. Over the past two years, the economy has reliably created about 150,000 jobs per month. This has been just enough to keep up with population growth, but alas, not enough to put the long-term unemployed back to work. The concerning data in the report came in the details of the jobs created: as usual–and this has been a trend for several years now–mostly in the lower wage sectors. A few wrap-up tweets from Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital summed up the facts rather nicely:

    Other notable observations from recent trends in US jobs reports include the fact that job creation in 2013 was no higher than in 2012. Not exactly an encouraging trend for those who would be looking for inflation risk, or strong growth in 2014.

    But perhaps worst of all has been the number of workers leaving the workforce. Part of this can be explained, of course, by demographic retirements. It's no secret that the US has an aging population, and there's a bulge of retiring workers that will admittedly create some gaps in the labor market over the next decade. But the large numbers of workers exiting the workforce is also explained by discouraged workers, and that unemployment benefits for many have started running out.

    What many in the public do not understand, is that workers taking unemployment checks are counted as active seekers of employment. They are added to the composition of the workforce, and when they continue to take unemployment checks but do not find work, they serve to keep the unemployment rate elevated. But when unemployment benefits expire, and workers leave the workforce, the unemployment rate may…

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  • Podcast

    Michael Pettis: The Future of China

    The challenges it faces are truly massive
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, August 17, 2013, 8:59 PM

    8

    Is China destined to emerge as the dominant superpower that will drive the 21st century to new heights of prosperity? Or instead, might it collapse spectacularly under the weight of its own overinvestment, dragging the global economy down with it in history's largest 'hard landing'?

    Few people can see the big picture in China more clearly than Michael Pettis, Beijing-based economic theorist and Professor of Finance at Peking University. Michael sees China's future prosperity tied to its ability to successfully address:

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  • Blog
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    Let’s Stop Fooling Ourselves: Americans Can’t Afford the Future

    Unemployment, taxes & unfunded retirements are squeezing us
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, March 12, 2013, 3:24 PM

    61

    The truth is: The three adult generations in the U.S. are suffering, and their burdens are likely to increase with time. Each is experiencing a squeeze that is making it harder to create value, save capital, and pursue happiness than at any point since WWII. At that point, we were a creditor nation with an economy exploding into dominance on the world stage. Now, however, the U.S. is the largest debtor nation and our economic hegemony is increasingly at seige across a number of fronts.

    A continuation of the status quo is a decision to sleepwalk face-first into the constraints hurtling towards us.

    Instead, shouldn't we stop fooling ourselves and ask: What should we be doing differently?

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  • Blog

    No Raise, Fewer Jobs, Less Dividends, Less Credit = No Economic Growth.

    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, April 9, 2009, 4:34 PM

    0

    Note: This blog post is a bit longer than usual…in it I add up the cumulative impacts of changes in income and credit on the overall economy.

    Much is being trumpeted by the government and the press about “the bottom being in” and that a recovery is right around the corner. The recent stock market gains are being used as a primary source of evidence for this idea.

    But is the stock market a good indicator of anything? We might note, somewhat critically, that the stock market did a terrible job of predicting the downturn (see below) and wonder why it should be any better at predicting the recovery.

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