Tag Archives: volatility

  • Podcast

    David Stockman: The Global Economy Has Entered The Crack-Up Phase

    And will be characterized by these 4 developments
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, February 15, 2015, 7:42 PM

    65

    Few people understand the global economy and its (mis)management better than David Stockman — former director of the OMB under President Reagan, former US Representative, best-selling author of The Great Deformation, and veteran financier.

    David is now loudly warning that events have entered the crack-up phase, which he predicts will be defined by the following 4 developments:

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  • Podcast

    Axel Merk: Why Asset Prices Must Return To Lower Levels

    It's the price you pay for forcing capital to speculate
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, January 24, 2015, 8:59 PM

    20

    Saying it's been a busy week and half on the central bank front is perhaps a sizeable understatement. 

    First, the Swiss National Bank stunned the world (and its brethren central banks) by removing its peg to the Euro. This was quickly followed by Mario Draghi finally making good on his longtime threat of firing QE bazooka, announcing that the ECB will pursue a 60 billion Euro per month easing program for the next 16 months. And amidst all the smoke, the Canadian central bank snuck in a surprise rate cut to its interest rate.

    To make sense of both the "Why?" behind these extreme moves, as well as the "What?" in terms of their implications, Axel Merk, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Funds joins us this week.

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  • Insider

    Off the Cuff: The Return of Volatility

    Stable prices are so 2014...
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, January 16, 2015, 8:50 PM

    5
    • The Return of Volatility
      • Shaping up to be a major theme for 2015
    • The Implications of the End of QE
      • Chris' predicted 3-month delay is arriving now
    • All Eyes on the Fed
      • It's getting nervous (panicked?)
    • How To Position Your Portfolio
      • Prepare for the return of long-absent bargain prices
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  • Insider
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    Off the Cuff: Volatility With A Vengeance

    Suddenly erupting all around us
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, October 9, 2014, 5:23 PM

    23

    In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

    • What Is Market Volatility Telling Us?
      • Sign of a top, or preparing for another leg up?
    • Have Capital Flows Changed the Story?
      • Is too much money entering the US for the markets to correct?
    • Where Is Gold Heading From Here?
      • Long-awaited bullish signals are appearing
    • Society's Happiness Drought
      • Why do we have so much, yet feel so unsatisfied?
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  • Blog

    The Approaching Inevitable Market Reversal

    Closer every day...
    by charleshughsmith

    Wednesday, July 2, 2014, 12:06 PM

    0

    Though we’re constantly reassured by financial pundits and the Federal Reserve that the stock market is not a bubble and that valuations are fair, there is substantial evidence that suggests the contrary.

    The market is dangerously stretched in terms of valuation and sentiment, and it does not accurately reflect fundamentals such as earnings and sales growth.

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  • Insider
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    The Signals That Will Tell Us A Stock Market Reversal Is Imminent

    The "Get out now!" warning signs
    by charleshughsmith

    Tuesday, July 1, 2014, 2:38 PM

    9

    Executive Summary

    • Understanding the importance of the 'Smith Market Uncertainty Principle'
    • Technical analysis techniques for identifying the arrival of a market reversal
      • Bollinger bands
      • volatility
      • moving averages
    • Using the above indicators to know when to sell

    If you have not yet read The Approaching Inevitable Market Reversal, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part 1, we reviewed the case for the Fed-enforced New Normal of “no more downturns” and the case for a trend reversal in the stock market.

    In this Part 2, we consider signs that a trend reversal has taken hold.

    The Mechanics of Manipulation

    Let’s briefly review the mechanics of stock market manipulation.  It’s easiest to manipulate a low-volatility, low-volume market, as low volatility (i.e. complacency) lowers the risk premium in index options, and a low-volume market is influenced by the purchase of relatively modest blocks of index options.  As a result, the Fed or its proxies can prop up the markets with large purchases of index options that cost very little in comparison to the overall size of the market.  (Recall each option leverages 100 shares of the index or stock.)

    The other way to manipulate the market is to intervene at the critical technical levels that money managers and trading computers are watching.  Every well-known technical system has been programmed into the trading bots, the majority of which appear to be trend-followers: if the market reverses at key technical levels (due to massive blocks of index options buying, for example), then the bots start buying the uptrend.

    Since the vast majority of trading is now done by machines, this greatly simplifies the process of manipulation:  the manipulator need only defend key technical levels with mass purchases of leveraged index options and the trading bots will jump in and buy the uptick.

    Experienced traders have seen this sort of activity countless times in the past five years. It has become predictable that…

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by cookbookman17, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 5/24 – Scandals And Economic Disasters, Toxic Rice Causes Concern In China

    by DailyDigest

    Friday, May 24, 2013, 2:47 PM

    4
    • Elizabeth Warren Grills Treasury Secretary on Too Big to Fail
    • Thanks To QE Bernanke Has Injected Foreign Banks With Over $1 Trillion In Cash For First Time Ever
    • Hyperinflation – 10 Worst Cases
    • 1/3 of Canadians live paycheque to paycheque, survey suggests
    • Scandals & Economic Disasters
    • Greek Prostitution Soars By 150% As Youth Unempoyment Hits 75% In Some Areas
    • Venezuela aims to end toilet paper shortage
    • Will It Be Inflation Or Deflation? The Answer May Surprise You
    • Harvard Economist: 'The Crisis Isn't Over in the US or Europe'
    • Stockholm riots throw spotlight on Swedish inequality
    • Tax avoidance: Developing countries take on multinationals
    • Straw bale homes for LILAC co-housing residents
    • Toxic Rice Causes Concern In China
    • Siblings' Victoria company boosts shellfish sector with algae-producing reactor

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by Digitalmoneyworld, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 3/13 – U.K. Faces Growing Vulnerability, German Bank Doubles Reserves

    by saxplayer00o1

    Wednesday, March 13, 2013, 1:18 PM

    4
    • Spain unveils $4.6-billion plan to get young back to work
    • Portugal in worst recession in 37 years
    • Duty hike on gold expected to reduce imports: Minister
    • France's Francois Hollande admits to miss deficit target
    • Students Rally Against Proposed Tuition Hike
    • Military tuition assistance another casualty of the sequester
    • Abe’s Weak Yen Policy Erodes Japanese Tourist Spending in Korea
    • Local Lawmakers Lead Fight To Ban Traffic Cameras in Ohio
    • German Central Bank Doubles Reserves
    • U.K. Faces Growing Vulnerability

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  • Blog
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    The Trends to Watch in 2013

    Probabilities are becoming more certain
    by charleshughsmith

    Tuesday, January 8, 2013, 4:26 AM

    8

     

    Rather than attempt to predict the unpredictable – that is, specific events and price levels – let’s look instead for key dynamics that will play out over the next two to three years. Though the specific timelines of crises are inherently unpredictable, it is still useful to understand the eventual consequences of influential trends.

    In other words: policies that appear to have been successful for the past four years may continue to appear successful for a year or two longer. But that very success comes at a steep, and as yet unpaid, price in suppressed systemic risk, cost, and consequence.

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest 3/19 – Courage Of The Fukishima 50, The “Permanent Bull Market”, New Ways To Store Nuclear Waste

    by DailyDigest

    Saturday, March 19, 2011, 2:46 PM

    0
    • Courage of the Fukushima Fifty: This Is Suicide, Admit Workers Trying To Avert A Catastrophe
    • TEPCO Director Weeps After Disclosing Truth About Fukushima Disaster
    • Japan Quake Shakes U.S. Treasury Bond Market Get Ready for Financial Meltdown
    • Volatility and the “Permanent Bull Market”
    • Quake Response Puts Yen on the Line
    • Yentervention – G7 Style 
    • Nothing Left To Steal
    • The F-35: A Weapon That Costs More Than Australia
    • Japan’s Fearless Women Speculators
    • New Process Cleanly Extracts Oil From Tar Sands And Fouled Beaches
    • Nuclear Waste: From Bombs to $800 Handbags

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