Tag Archives: Treasurys

  • Daily Digest
    Image by USFWS/Southwest, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 2/24 – 1 In 5 Americans Have More CC Debt Than Savings, California’s Recurring Nightmare

    by DailyDigest

    Saturday, February 24, 2018, 6:16 PM

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    • 1 in 5 Americans have more credit-card debt than savings
    • Silver: 2018 and Beyond
    • Four Ex-Deutsche Bank Traders Evade U.K. Euribor Case
    • Me, rich? Here’s what Palo Altans think about themselves
    • Venezuela's New Cryptocurrency: Just Another Form of Control Fraud
    • What's Actually Behind Cape Town's Water Crisis
    • California’s Recurring Nightmare: Nearly Half the State is Back in Drought
    • If Climage Change Wrecks Your City, Can It Sue Exxon?

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  • Blog
    Zacarias Pereira da Mata/Shutterstock

    The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets

    A global sea-change in risk appetite & sentiment
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, July 8, 2016, 7:03 PM

    5

    In the conventional investment perspective, risk-on assets (i.e. investments with higher risks and higher potential returns) such as stocks are on a see-saw with risk-off assets (investments with lower returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds). When risk appetites are high, institutional managers and speculators move money into stocks and high-yield junk bonds, and move money out of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

    But recently, markets are no longer following this convention. Safe haven assets such as precious metals and Treasuries are soaring at the same time that stock markets bounced strongly off the post-Brexit lows.

    Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. 

    What the heck is going on?

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  • Podcast

    Bud Conrad: The Bursting of the Bond Bubble Is Now Upon Us

    And the results will be calamitous
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, October 12, 2013, 6:55 PM

    12

    At the recent Casey Research conference in Tucson, AZ, Casey chief economist Bud Conrad stepped up to the podium, reached into his pocket, and pulled out a balloon, which he proceeded to inflate. As it grew, it become clear the word "BONDS" was written across it. For dramatic effect, Bud continued inflating the balloon until it popped. He then looked at the audience and said, "I hope I'm making a point."

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  • Insider
    © Alain Lacroix | Dreamstime.com

    The Forces That Will Reverse Housing’s Recent Gains

    Get ready for the "poverty effect"
    by charleshughsmith

    Monday, February 25, 2013, 9:56 PM

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    Executive Summary

    • Intervention in the housing market by central planners is experiencing diminishing returns
    • The four major trend reversals most likely to depress housing prices in the coming future
    • The power deflationary force of reversion to (or perhaps below?) the mean
    • Why demographics do not support rising prices

    If you have not yet read Part I: The Unsafe Foundation of Our Housing 'Recovery', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part I, we sketched out the larger context of the housing market: the dramatic rise of mortgage debt, the stagnation of income for 90% of households and the unprecedented scope of Central Planning intervention in the housing and mortgage markets.

    In Part II, examine what will likely cause this nascent rise in housing prices to reverse, and to resume the decline Central Planning halted in 2009.

    Intervention Has Only One Way to Go: Diminishing Returns

    As noted in Part I, every Central Planning support of the mortgage and housing markets has already been pushed to the maximum, so there is nowhere left to go. Interest rates are already negative, over 90% of the mortgage market is backed by Federal agencies, the Fed has already pledged to buy trillions of dollars in mortgages, etc.

    Four years of this massive intervention has stripped the mortgage and housing markets of the ability to price risk, capital, and assets. This has created a culture of supreme complacency, as participants have come to believe interest rates will stay near-zero for the foreseeable future and Central Planning intervention is permanent.

    But nothing is permanent in life. And the current extremes of intervention and complacency have set the stage for some important reversals:

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