Tag Archives: treasury

  • Blog

    Don’t Worry; They’ll Just Change the Rules

    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, January 13, 2011, 2:52 AM

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    To anyone paying the slightest bit of attention, these remain very uncertain and trying times. On one side of the intellectual divide are the folks who are counting on deflationary forces overwhelming the normal credit-operated machinery of modern life, resulting in an implosion of economic activity. On the other side are those counting on hyperinflation as the most likely outcome of the grand printing experiment currently being conducted across the globe with its epicenter located within the United States.

    In the middle of the intellectual divide are people like me, who are leaning slightly towards one view or the other. Not yet committed to any particular outcome, they are tensed and ready to spring in whichever direction necessary, like the last kids left standing in a game of dodge ball.

    Some are expecting an imminent recovery (whatever that means), some a long, slow grind downwards, and others a rapid, if not chaotic, plunge into new and unwelcome territory of one sort or another.

    There are no right or wrong views here. All sides are on equally firm intellectual standing. However, I want to let you know why it is that I lean towards the inflationary line a bit (okay, a lot, by some people’s standards) and why I think that a wide-scale, final fiscal collapse is in the cards.

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest 1/4 – Alarming Decline in Bees, Fed May Add Treasury Market Dealers, Flood Concern for Coal Prices

    by DailyDigest

    Tuesday, January 4, 2011, 4:00 PM

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    • China BRICS up Africa
    • Manipulated Monday – New Year Starts with a Bang
    • The Oil – Employment Link, Part 1
    • Researchers Find “Alarming” Decline In Bumblebees
    • Fed Likely To Add New Treasury Market Dealers
    • Overheating East to Falter Before the Bankrupt West Recovers
    • Australia Flood Is Concern For Coal Prices, A Commodities Lesson

    Crash Course DVDOwn the Crash Course Special Edition Set with Presenter’s Pack (NTSC or PAL)

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest 12/29 – Poverty & Homelessness Increase, Tax Hikes Looming, Rare Earth in China

    by saxplayer00o1

    Wednesday, December 29, 2010, 4:00 PM

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    • Sovereign Debt Levels ‘Unsustainable’, Double Dip A Possibility
    • Pleas For Food Jump As Poverty Increases (Arizona)
    • Number Of Homeless Students In State Climbs To 21,000 (Washington)
    • Illinois Default Insurance Cost at Five-Month High: Muni Credit
    • Treasurys Sink After Poor 5-Year Auction
    • Oil Industry’s Spending to Rise in Hunt for Energy
    • Ambulance Fees Increasing Across USA
    • Minnesota Tax Hikes Looming
    • Three-Quarters Of U.S. Uninsured Employed
    • US `Very Concerned’ About China Rare-Earth Quotas -USTR Spokeswoman
    • China To Establish Rare Earth Group

    Crash Course DVDOwn the Crash Course Special Edition Set with Presenter’s Pack (NTSC or PAL)

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  • Blog

    In The Dark Of Night – Debt Limit To Be Increased

    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, December 12, 2009, 2:22 PM

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    There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

          Ludwig Von Mises

    It’s time to face facts.  Washington DC is out of control.  Spending is breaking all records, the deficit is climbing higher and higher, and the general populace is voicing graver doubts about the deficit and mounting debts, even as politicians drag the country even deeper into a financial pit.

    In 1981, the federal debt first crossed the $1 trillion dollar mark, never to look back.  And now, here in 2009, lawmakers are considering boosting it by as much as $1.9 trillion in one fell swoop, with the hope (fingers crossed) that nobody will notice if they do it over the holidays.  Their calculations in deriving the $1.9 trillion number appear to not involve any considerations about what is best for the long-term fiscal health of the country, but whether the amount will be sufficient to make it past the mid-term elections.

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  • Blog

    Insatiable Demand For US Debt, or Something Else?

    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, October 1, 2009, 5:28 PM

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    Recently the Fed reiterated that their $300 billion program of buying long-dated Treasury Bonds would end on schedule, meaning as soon as it hit $300 billion.  Well, that’s been achieved, so according to recent Fed statements, the program is over.

    This is a critical development, because the ability of the US government to continue to fund its massive deficits (at favorable rates) requires that each Treasury Auction be “well bid.”  The Fed has been a major participant, and so we might reasonably wonder who will fill the Fed’s shoes.

    This is critical, because the US government continues to float weekly auctions of Treasuries in quantities that just a few short years ago would have been unthinkable.

    Exhibit A:  Next week’s schedule:

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  • Blog

    A Dollar Crisis in the Making

    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, September 1, 2009, 7:09 PM

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    In this post, I respond to the recent flurry of activity in print and in blogs about the dollar, US indebtedness, and the risks associated with both.

    Mish recently posted a mixed grab-bag entitled Countdown To Dollar Implosion Madness, in which he (very rightly, in my view) took to task various bloggers and other Internet sources that have been peddling rumors of bank holidays and setting specific dates for a dollar implosion.

    I don’t like trading in unsourced rumors, either by the mainstream media or by bloggers (as they are very nearly always proven wrong), and I am especially leery of setting dates for future market events.  So kudos to Mish for his efforts to hold bloggers to a higher standard.

    However, I took exception to a snippet from a WSJ article by Andrew Batson, entitled Households Start to Rival the Chinese in Treasury Market (originally blogged about by Michael Pettis here), that offered the comforting impression that domestic savings are growing and are possibly sufficient to fund the US government deficit.

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – August 30

    by Davos

    Sunday, August 30, 2009, 3:05 PM

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    • Wake Up, America: Forced vaccinations, quarantine camps, health care interrogations and mandatory “decontaminations” 
    • Max Keiser (Yuans not Dollars) (Video, Repost, as seen on www.theComingDepression.com)
    • Martin Armstrong – Will Gold Reach $5,000+?
    • Dr. Michael Hudson Interview – Must Listen!
    • 100 (revised), 300 (revised), 1000 (revised again), 4000 (now) Banks will close (Links to www.TheComingDepression.blogspot.com)
    • Bank Failures 82-84
    • St. Louis Fed Charts – Banks Not Looking that Healthy at ALL…
    • Treasury default in the cards?
    • Peak Water, By Jim Quinn

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  • Blog

    The Five Horsemen

    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, August 29, 2009, 5:52 PM

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    Below is another Martenson Report from May of 2009, which I am now making available. 

    Nothing has been edited or changed.

    Enjoy.


    Executive Summary

    • What can we expect next, and how will we recognize it?
    • A series of sharp, interrupted shocks is more likely than a major sudden collapse.
    • Five game-changing events, what I call The Five Horsemen, will indicate that the rules have changed and a new reality is about to take over:
      • The First Horseman: New credit growth falls below interest payments
      • The Second Horseman: The Fed monetizes debt
      • The Third Horseman: Government deficit spending exceeds 10% of GDP
      • The Fourth Horseman: The dollar goes down, while interest rates go up
      • The Fifth (and final) Horseman: US debt becomes denominated in foreign currencies

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  • Blog

    The FDIC Is Broke – Now What?

    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, August 17, 2009, 9:13 PM

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    This blog post is the most recent Martenson Report, which I am now making available for wider distribution.  I believe this needs to be read and understood by as many people as possible. 


    Sunday, August 16, 2009

    Executive Summary

    • With the most recent bank failures, the FDIC is out of funds.
    • The FDIC is levying a one-time fee on member banks to cover the shortfall, but it will not be enough and it punishes the prudent.
    • The FDIC has been suspiciously slow at shutting down banks that have admittedly already failed.
    • Banks have been allowed to overestimate the actual worth of their assets using “mark-to-fantasy” accounting.
    • Hundreds of banks are likely already mortally wounded and set to fail.
    • The FDIC means well, but creates a moral hazard the effects of which now haunt us.
    • Take prudent action: Choose only high-rated banks, and keep cash out of the bank.

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  • Blog

    The Fed Buys Last Week’s Treasury Notes

    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, August 6, 2009, 4:11 PM

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    I’ve started a new service for enrolled members called the Martenson Insider where I will be putting my more timely and market-sensitive thoughts.  This week it is freely available to all.

    Here’s a recent example illustrating that the Fed’s actions are more consistent with financial desperation than economic health.


    In concert with the claims I made in the prior Martenson Insider post, The Fed bought $7 billion in Treasuries today and even more yesterday.

    This is at the upper end of their recent range of already exceptional purchasing activity.

    If things are so rosy that every single dip is being bought in the stock market with a vengeance, I wonder why these printing operations are really necessary?

    This $14 billion plus buying activity by the Fed represents fresh money created out of this air that was exchanged for the sovereign debt of the US.  However, since the Fed has, for all practical purposes, never undone its permanent operations (hey, that’s why they are called "POMOs") we can consider these additions of money as good as permanent themselves.

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