Tag Archives: syria

  • Blog
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    Making The World A More Dangerous Place

    US foreign policy at work
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, November 7, 2015, 1:06 AM

    489

    Without any doubt, the Middle East has been a very long-simmering region of violent religious and tribal enmity.

    In that regard, perhaps today is no different than 1,000 years ago. But given the importance of the remaining oil in the Middle East to the next 20 years of global economic health, the violence and chaos seen there recently is hugely important to the entire world.

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  • Insider
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    How Things May Well Get Ugly Quickly

    What to do if full-blown war breaks out
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, November 7, 2015, 1:05 AM

    43

    Executive Summary

    • The US/Russia proxy war in Syria is fast escalating to dangerous levels
    • Much of the unrest today was imminently avoidable and sadly ignored
    • The US neo-con model is making more enemies both outside and inside America
    • The risks of full-blown war breaking out
    • What to do to prepare in advance

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Making The World A More Dangerous Place available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Look, we’ve given these warnings before and unless you happen to live in one of the unfortunate countries that is being bombed or overtly or covertly supplied with the weapons of war by the west, they seem to not have amounted to much.

    Such is the nature of reading tea leaves.  Instead of thinking of them as binary outcomes – things that either happened or didn’t happen – think of them as ‘probability fields.’  Like the chance of rolling a three with a 6-sided die vs. the chance of rolling a three with a 20-sided die.  The ‘probability field’ of the 6-sided die is a lot higher.

    The probabilities and forces that push us closer to and further from war are ever changing and highly complex.  They shift with events and decisions, most of which we are unaware of because they are either not reported on or reported with heavy distortion of the truth.

    So reading the tea leaves is the best we can do.

    Our advice for any war breaking out anywhere in the Middle East, or especially between Russia (or China) and the West would be to have all of your preparations done a year before that moment.

    Anything that disrupts global maritime trade, even for a very short while will rock the financial systems of the world.  Anything that calls into question the desire or ability of a country to repay its foreign debts (and wars are great excuses to stiff your creditors if they happen to be attacking you) will rock the financial world.

    Heck, anything that…

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  • Podcast

    Michael Klare: Finite Resources And The Geography of Conflict

    In the end, all wars are resource wars
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, July 27, 2014, 4:49 PM

    4

    Ukraine. Iraq. Nigeria. Libya. Tunisia. Syria. All are hotspots of conflict in different regions of the world, yet the same underlying cause behind each can clearly be seen when looking through the lens of finite resources.

    In this week's podcast, Chris talks with Hampshire college professor Michael Klare, author of The Race for What's Left: The Global Scramble for World's Last Resources and Resource Wars.

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  • Blog
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    Iraq Breaks Down, Oil Surges

    The context underlying the growing crisis
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, June 16, 2014, 4:58 PM

    34

    The situation in Iraq is serious, and is probably going to get worse before it gets better. The potential for this recent action to morph into a regional conflict is very high. That that means that oil could go a lot higher, and if it does, we can expect the odds of a global economic recession and an attendant financial crisis to go up considerably from here.

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  • Blog
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    Rising Resource Costs Escalate Odds of Global Unrest

    The critical 40% income-to-food threshold
    by Chris Martenson

    Wednesday, May 14, 2014, 2:34 AM

    14

    As we observe the growing unrest in Ukraine, there is the usual rush to ascribe a cause. Was it meddling by the West? Russia? Was it corruption by prior leaders? Simmering resentments that stretch back centuries that finally erupted?

    The answers apply to Ukraine as well as to many other countries. Which is why having an accurate framework, a clear 'lens' for seeing what is actually transpiring, will prove far more useful to you than 99% of what you will hear on the ni

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  • Blog
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    The State of the Deep State

    The monster in America’s closet
    by JHK

    Wednesday, April 30, 2014, 1:43 PM

    82

    We’ve been hearing a lot about the so-called Deep State lately. What to make of this shadowy monster? Some observers link it to the paranoid fantasy called the New World Order, a staple of political talk radio (and a hobgoblin I don’t believe in). 

    I like to say that I’m allergic to conspiracy theories because human beings are generally too inept to carry out schemes at the grand scale, as well as being poor secret-keepers. Insider knowledge is almost always swapped around, even in secretive organizations, often recklessly so, because doling it out confers status, tactical advantage, and sometimes money for the doler-outer. But the Deep State isn’t a secret. It operates in plain sight.

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by cooperweb, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 9/5 – Fear The Inflation, Why Incomes Could Fall For the Next 30 Years

    by DailyDigest

    Thursday, September 5, 2013, 4:39 PM

    3
    • Fear The Inflation
    • Viewpoints: Is a salary of £300,000 a week too much?
    • Pharmacies, doctors fail to stop narcotic shopping spree
    • Detroit Billionaires Get Arena Help as Bankrupt City Suffers
    • Why Incomes Could Fall For the Next 30 Years
    • Ted Butler: I Own Silver Because Of The Coming Silver Shortage
    • Why Syria Matters To Oil Prices and Your Money
    • Germany's Energy Poverty: How Electricity Became a Luxury Good
    • Is The US Going To War With Syria Over A Natural Gas Pipeline?
    • Children and the Environment: How gardening lessons impact positively on school kids
    • Warning Labels and the Psychology of Climate Change
    • Could smuggling be to blame for Venezuela's food shortages?
    • The great Cold War potato beetle battle

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  • Insider
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    Off the Cuff: Poking the Stick

    We may just get the trouble we're asking for
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, September 5, 2013, 4:05 PM

    44

    In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

    • Syria
      • Hard to see an upside to intervention there
    • India
      • Showing us what a full-blown currency crisis looks like
    • Japan, Brazil, the PIIGS…
      • In danger of soon following India's lead
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  • Insider
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    Off the Cuff: Trouble Brewing Everywhere

    Signs of weakness are appearing on a number of fronts
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 30, 2013, 12:00 AM

    14

    <p>In this week&#39;s&nbsp;<em>Off the Cuff&nbsp;</em>podcast, Chris and Adam discuss:</p>
    <ul>
        <li>Currency Chaos
            <ul>
                <li>Weaker currency markets are suddenly imploding</li>
            </ul>
        </li>
        <li>From the Outside in
            <ul>
                <li>Economic distress is moving closer to the core</li>
            </ul>
        </li>
        <li>Is a Financial Collapse Nigh?
            <ul>
                <li>Does Chris still expect declines of 40% or more?</li>
            </ul>
        </li>
        <li>The Syria Curve Ball
            <ul>
                <li>How would an open conflict change the game?</li>
            </ul>
        </li>
    </ul>

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  • Insider
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    Blast Shields Up! Prepare for Incoming!

    Get busy with defensive maneuvers – now
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 8:05 PM

    74

    Executive Summary

    • Central bank policies to prop up the global economic system are failing
    • Developing countries and the PIIGS are the periphery where we can see the crumbling now accelerate
    • The emerging Syria crisis could hardly come at a worse time & could have an explosive effect
    • The steps every concerned individual should be taking now

    If you have not yet read Part I: The Periphery is Failing, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    When Help Turns to Harm

    The story, so far, goes like this:  A global credit crisis so worried the powers that be that they promised to do ‘whatever it takes,’ (Draghi) even if that means lying from time to time (Junker).  This has only resulted in larger and larger interventions in the form of more aggressive QE programs (U.S. Fed), doubling of the monetary base (Japan), and repeated ‘Final Bailout Ever’ goal lines that keep getting moved back (ECB re: Greece).

    Each of these interventions, in combination with ultra-low and highly distortive interest rates, has only served to make markets more speculative, more risk-tolerant, and therefore more prone to some future accident.

    Puzzlingly, and certainly off-script, has been the steady rise in long-term U.S. interest rates, which we’ve been tracking as the most interesting development in an otherwise boringly placid set of global equity markets.

    That began in early June.  Now at August's end, we have a better picture to illuminate why that happened and where it’s probably headed next.

    The initial data came to us via the Treasury International Capital (TIC) report that tracks the net buying and selling of financial securities in both directions across the U.S. border.  The June numbers were a real eye-opener, as they marked the first time in history that virtually every category of U.S. financial assets was net sold by foreigners.  It also showed the total amount of selling was even greater than the prior record set in October of 2008:

    (Source)

    Of course, this data is from June, and the TIC report, as good as it is, always comes out a month and a half after the fact.  So we can only guess at what has happened since.  (The July data will be released Sept 15).

    The summary of the TIC data is this:  Countries across the globe are now selling more U.S. paper than they are buying, and that is very much a game-changer.  To understand why the game has changed, all we have to do is understand that the interventionist policies of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan could never last forever and that eventually things would go into reverse.

    This will prove to be quite surprising to many, but especially those who hold the belief that central banks actually have everything under control.  Certainly we cannot disagree with the idea that central banks have a tremendous amount of power and that they can distort things for far longer than we might think possible, but eventually they cannot prevent reality from being what it is.

    It is our view that the tide has now turned.

    From the Outside In

    So if the story was one of Western central banks flooding the world with liquidity (including Japan as an honorary ‘Westerner’ in this story), and of that “money” rushing into various foreign markets, driving bond and equity prices up in those same markets, while the respective central banks fought the coincident strengthening of their local currencies by recycling that money back into U.S. paper assets (principally Treasury paper) well, that story eventually had to flip.

    We’ve already seen…

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