Tag Archives: shale oil

  • Blog

    The Shale Oil Revolution Actually Reflects a Nation in Decline

    Faster consumption + no strategy = diminished prospects
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, January 11, 2019, 4:48 PM


    For several decades now the US has been getting its energy policy very badly wrong.  It's so short-sighted, and rely so heavily on techno-optimism, that it barely deserves to be called a 'policy' at all. 

    Which is why we predict that in the not-too-distant future, this failure to plan will attack like a hungry wolfpack to bite down hard on the US economy’s hamstrings and drag it to the ground.

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by kishjar?, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 10/13 – Trapped By The “Walmart Of Heroin,” Best Government Money Can Buy

    by DailyDigest

    Saturday, October 13, 2018, 4:39 PM

    • You might not be anonymous, thanks to genealogy databases
    • Could Donald Trump be the last world emperor?
    • Jim Rogers: Worst Crisis In My Lifetime
    • Best Government Money Can Buy
    • Watch Boston Dynamics' Humanoid Robot Do Parkour
    • After Soyuz Failure, Space Is Now Weirdly Inaccessible to Astronauts
    • Trapped by the ‘Walmart of Heroin’
    • Another NASA space telescope just went into safe mode
    • Ebola 2018 Update: Still Dicking Around With Dynamite
    • USDA Surprises with Crop Yield Cut
    • High CO2 levels cause plants to thicken their leaves, could worsen climate change effects 
    • #ICYMI: Climate change could destroy us all, but who cares?! 
    • Victims of Hurricane Michael voted for climate deniers

    Read More »

  • Insider
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    Off The Cuff: A World Of Rising Interest Rates

    Means a future of falling prices -- in nearly everything
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, December 29, 2017, 8:55 PM


    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

    • The Crashing Treasury Curve
      • Interest rates are on the move
    • Get Ready For Interest Rates To Start Rising
      • The end of a 30-year downtrend
    • When Rates Rise, Prices Will Fall
      • Bonds, stocks, housing — nearly everything
    • What's Next For Bitcoin?
      • We're witnessing a historical moment

    Charles and Chris discuss the implications to anticipate should interest rates indeed start rising. The quick summary? It will change everything…

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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  • Insider
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    The Coming Shale Debacle

    How to position for the coming industry carnage
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, August 26, 2017, 1:21 AM


    Executive Summary

    • How bad will "bad" get?
    • What will happen to world supply and prices?
    • Who is most vulnerable?
    • How quickly could this occur?

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Shale "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    How to Position Yourself

    Okay, here’s the summary so far.  The shale companies are burning cash and they’ve done so every year. At every oil price point. And there’s nothing in the data to suggest that will change this year, or next.

    So the first question to ask is: When will investors wake up and stop funding these companies?

    This should be immediately followed by: How much financial and economic damage will then result? And how soon afterwards?

    Well, if the companies stop drilling because their funding dries up, the decline rates of the various shale basins would translate into the immediate and sudden loss of a huge amount of oil production.  

    How much?

    According to the EIA the decline rates each month for the three biggest shale fields would be between 53,000 and 158,000 barrels per month.

    Taken together, one month of not bringing any new wells online for these three fields would result in a drop in oil output of -314,000 barrels.  And a similar (but slightly smaller) drop the next month.  And the month after that, the same thing.  And so on.

    After just 3 months the US would be down more than -1,000,000 barrels per day when all the other shale fields are taken into account. 

    Now that’s extreme, and it’s very unlikely that drilling would just suddenly stop one day. But the point here is that…

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  • Blog

    Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”

    Dispelling the magical thinking behind the hype
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, August 26, 2017, 1:21 AM


    The central point of this report is that the US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically).

    The bottom line is this: The US shale industry resembles a fraudulent Ponzi scheme much more so than it does any kind of "miracle".

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  • Podcast

    Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

    Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, August 7, 2017, 6:42 PM


    “The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history.”

    So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University’s Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates.

    We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

    Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time.

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  • Podcast

    Art Berman: The Coming Moonshot In Oil Prices

    Today's low prices mask an approaching supply crunch
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, July 3, 2016, 1:47 PM


    In spite of the recent low prices for oil and natural gas, an energy supply crunch is looming warns geological consultant Arthur Berman.

    Berman's perspective should not be lightly dismissed: he has 37 years of experience in petroleum exploration and production with 20 of those years at Amoco (now known as BP). He has published more than 100 articles and reports on geology, technology and the petroleum industry during the past five years –more than 20 of those focused on the shale industry including the Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville, Bakken and Eagleford plays.

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  • Insider

    Devastating Shale Oil Losses

    Coming soon to a bank near you
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, October 19, 2015, 8:12 PM


    Sometimes it helps to examine one narrow slice of the pie as a means to understanding the entire pie. In the case of the shale oil Ponzi scheme, we can both wrap our minds around the scale of the predicament and also answer the question of who the losses will be foisted on.

    Once we’ve done that, you should be able to simply apply the same logic and learning to other sectors of the financial universe.  Learn one sub-bubble, learn them all; like a fractal foam of misadventure.

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  • Insider
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    Mauldin Makes A Very Basic Error on Shale Oil

    Beware 'analysis' based more on faith than facts
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, August 17, 2015, 7:58 PM


    There’s really nothing much more important than knowing where we are in the oil story…but if you follow the hypesters from Wall Street or the technology lovers, you're likely to be misled.  A particularly wrong piece of analysis was recently released by John Mauldin, who has both bought into the hype and loves technology.

    He even singled out our friend James Howard Kunstler for being wrong, yet then goes on to be spectacularly wrong himself.

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  • Insider
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    The Destruction That Awaits

    The ponzi elements of the shale story start to implode
    by davefairtex

    Wednesday, December 17, 2014, 3:30 AM


    Executive Summary

    • Predicting when US shale oil production will peak
    • Why these lower oil prices *must* result in substantially lower US shale production
    • How the 'shale miracle' indeed has numerous ponzi elements that are on the brink of collapsing
    • Expect a tsunami of shale bankruptcies to arrive soon

    If you have not yet read Part 1:The Dangerous Economics of Shale Oil available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Predicting The Peak

    Now we expand our focus from one hypothetical producer, to one actual shale region: the Bakken, located in North Dakota. My key source of information about the Bakken region is the Department of Mineral Resources in North Dakota. Every month the Director (Lynn Helms) produces the “Director's Cut”, a just-the-facts summary of oil production in North Dakota. Yes, it really is called the Director's Cut.

    Regional data provided by EIA is smoothed and massaged and – less useful for seeing what is going on at the point of the spear. So knowing now about how all the parts of the shale operation works, we can use the Director's Cut stats to track all the stages of producing oil. We have, in order of execution:

    • drilling permits

    • rig counts

    • wells awaiting completion

    • well counts

    • monthly production


    In other words, before you can drill, you need …

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