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Tag Archives: shale oil

  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: The Earth’s Lament

    We pollute & deplete, but for no real gain
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, June 6, 2019, 8:12 AM

    10

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris discusses:

    • We’re Polluting & Depleting, For No Real Gain
    • Why Shale Oil Reflects Our Wrongheadedness
    • Time Is Fast Running Out Before The Real Consequences Arrive
    • But There Are Many Ways To Do Things Better

    This week Chris looks at the big picture: the planet’s resources and humanity’s mad dash to consume them. We are depleting millions-year-old treasures — which will never renew in our species’ future — while leaving poison and pollution behind in the effort.

    Even if we only prioritize the well-being of those currently alive (screw those pesky future generations!), time is running out on us. Our current trajectory is having increasing negative repercussions, which will only intensify over the coming decades.

    The silver lining to this is that we *can* be doing things better. We already have plenty of models for living regernatively. We just need to embrace them. But will we?

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  • Insider
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    Off The Cuff: Twilight In The Desert Has Begun

    An oil engineer's dark take on the Ghawar oil field decline
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, April 9, 2019, 4:45 PM

    6

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

    • Is the Ghawar oil field truly in decline?
    • If so, what are the implications?
    • What other important revelations does the Saudi Aramco prospectus contain?

    In the light of the huge surprise contained in the recent Saudi Aramco prospectus, that Saudi Arabia's massive Ghawar “crown jewel” conventional oil field is in decline (currently at a maximum output of 3.8 million barrels per day vs the previous estimate of 5.8mbd), we rushed to interview seasoned petroleum geologist Art Berman on the news.

    Is he as concerned about the revelation as we are?

    Yes. In fact, he suspects the 3.8mbd is likely still an overly-exagerrated figure, and that the field's true max output is even lower.

    In his estimation, the fiction the world has been telling itself — that Peak Oil isn't real — is about to be rudely disproven. The recent (and much more expensive) shale bonanza will prove to be a short-lived distraction, and we'll soon be face-to-face with the predicament of how to power the global economy with less net energy.

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  • Insider

    Huge News: The Ghawar Is In Decline!

    The world's most productive oil field just shocked analysts
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, April 2, 2019, 4:39 PM

    43

    Really big news hit this morning. And today is April 2nd, so we can't dismiss this as an April-fools prank.

    I explain it all with context below. But the summary is this: we're well on track for the oil supply shortage(s) and price spike(s) that I’ve been writing about for the past few years. It will all hit sometime between now and 2022 is my latest projected timeframe.

    This will be a before-and-after story. Before the coming price spikes, so much seemed possible. After they hit, so much less will be. The transition from Easy to Hard is now fully underwaym and you need to be eyes wide open about the data.

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  • Podcast

    Bethany McLean: Saudi America

    The truth about fracking & how it's changing the world
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, March 1, 2019, 1:37 PM

    6

    For years now we've been covering the false promise of the American shale oil “miracle”.

    Yes, it has extracted a lot more oil out of American soil that most thought possible. But at an economic loss. And at great environmental cost.

    If the shale drilling companies can't make any profit, either when oil prices are high or low — why are we still pursuing shale deposits so aggressively?

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  • Blog

    A Survival Guide For 2019

    How to safely navigate the 'Year Of Instability'
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, February 1, 2019, 3:24 PM

    40

    With the bursting of the Everything Bubble, we declared last year as the 'Year Everything Changed'. This will be the 'Year of Instability', possibly preceding an upcoming 'Year Of Woe' in 2020.

    But look, we're not saying the world is the process of ending imminently. It's just that we've entered the part of the timeline when things are going to start to get really rocky.

    And we think it's much more useful to think of 2019 as the 'Year Resilience Matters'. It shifts the focus away from fear and instead towards the many things you can do to protect yourself and those you care about – and even to position yourself to prosper through the coming challenges.

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  • Podcast

    Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil

    Estimates of recoverable oil are proving wildly wrong
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, January 16, 2019, 10:44 AM

    17

    Art Berman, geological consultant with over 37 years experience in petroleum exploration and production, returns to the podcast this week to debunk much of the hopium currently surrounding America’s shale oil output.

    Because the US is pinning huge hopes on its shale oil “revolution”, so much depends on that story being right. Here’s the narrative right now:

    • The US, is the new Saudi Arabia
    • It’s the swing producer when it comes to influencing the price of oil
    • The US will be able to increase oil production for decades to come
    • New technology is unlocking more oil shale supply all the time

    But what if there’s evidence that runs counter to all of that?

    We’re going to be taking a little victory lap on this week’s podcast because The Wall Street Journal has finally admitted that shale oil wells are not producing as much as the companies operating them touted they would produce — which is what we’ve been saying for years here at PeakProsperity.com, largely because we closely follow Art’s work.

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  • Blog
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    The Shale Oil Revolution Actually Reflects a Nation in Decline

    Faster consumption + no strategy = diminished prospects
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, January 11, 2019, 4:48 PM

    11

    For several decades now the US has been getting its energy policy very badly wrong.  It's so short-sighted, and rely so heavily on techno-optimism, that it barely deserves to be called a 'policy' at all. 

    Which is why we predict that in the not-too-distant future, this failure to plan will attack like a hungry wolfpack to bite down hard on the US economy’s hamstrings and drag it to the ground.

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by kishjar?, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 10/13 – Trapped By The “Walmart Of Heroin,” Best Government Money Can Buy

    by DailyDigest

    Saturday, October 13, 2018, 4:39 PM

    0
    • You might not be anonymous, thanks to genealogy databases
    • Could Donald Trump be the last world emperor?
    • Jim Rogers: Worst Crisis In My Lifetime
    • Best Government Money Can Buy
    • Watch Boston Dynamics' Humanoid Robot Do Parkour
    • After Soyuz Failure, Space Is Now Weirdly Inaccessible to Astronauts
    • Trapped by the ‘Walmart of Heroin’
    • Another NASA space telescope just went into safe mode
    • Ebola 2018 Update: Still Dicking Around With Dynamite
    • USDA Surprises with Crop Yield Cut
    • High CO2 levels cause plants to thicken their leaves, could worsen climate change effects 
    • #ICYMI: Climate change could destroy us all, but who cares?! 
    • Victims of Hurricane Michael voted for climate deniers

    Read More »

  • Insider
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    Off The Cuff: A World Of Rising Interest Rates

    Means a future of falling prices -- in nearly everything
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, December 29, 2017, 8:55 PM

    3

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

    • The Crashing Treasury Curve
      • Interest rates are on the move
    • Get Ready For Interest Rates To Start Rising
      • The end of a 30-year downtrend
    • When Rates Rise, Prices Will Fall
      • Bonds, stocks, housing — nearly everything
    • What's Next For Bitcoin?
      • We're witnessing a historical moment

    Charles and Chris discuss the implications to anticipate should interest rates indeed start rising. The quick summary? It will change everything…

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  • Insider
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    The Coming Shale Debacle

    How to position for the coming industry carnage
    by Chris Martenson

    Saturday, August 26, 2017, 1:21 AM

    22

    Executive Summary

    • How bad will "bad" get?
    • What will happen to world supply and prices?
    • Who is most vulnerable?
    • How quickly could this occur?

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Shale "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    How to Position Yourself

    Okay, here’s the summary so far.  The shale companies are burning cash and they’ve done so every year. At every oil price point. And there’s nothing in the data to suggest that will change this year, or next.

    So the first question to ask is: When will investors wake up and stop funding these companies?

    This should be immediately followed by: How much financial and economic damage will then result? And how soon afterwards?

    Well, if the companies stop drilling because their funding dries up, the decline rates of the various shale basins would translate into the immediate and sudden loss of a huge amount of oil production.  

    How much?

    According to the EIA the decline rates each month for the three biggest shale fields would be between 53,000 and 158,000 barrels per month.

    Taken together, one month of not bringing any new wells online for these three fields would result in a drop in oil output of -314,000 barrels.  And a similar (but slightly smaller) drop the next month.  And the month after that, the same thing.  And so on.

    After just 3 months the US would be down more than -1,000,000 barrels per day when all the other shale fields are taken into account. 

    Now that’s extreme, and it’s very unlikely that drilling would just suddenly stop one day. But the point here is that…

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