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Tag Archives: Risk

  • Blog
    Teresa N. Fischer

    The Stock Market’s Shaky Foundation

    Crumbling fundamentals in both the short term & long
    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, February 27, 2014, 12:21 AM

    58

    According to the stock markets in the US and in Europe, the world’s economy is not just in good shape, but is in the best shape it’s ever been

    The S&P 500 hit an intraday new record high of 1858.71 on Feb 24, 2014, and is now 18.6% above the peak it hit in 2007, a moment everybody now recognizes was heavily overvalued.

    A nearly 19% gain above the prior all time high is an enormous and unusual event.  Surely there must be an equally compelling story and loads of fundamental data to support such a bull market?

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  • Podcast

    Brian Pretti: The World’s Capital Is Now Dangerously Boxed In

    Creating asset bubbles ready to burst
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, January 4, 2014, 5:22 PM

    12

    This week Chris speaks with Brian Pretti, managing editor of ContraryInvestor.com, a financial commentary site published by institutional buy-side portfolio managers. In their discussion, they focus on the global movement of capital since quantitative easing (QE) became the policy of the world's major central banks.

    The ensuing excellent discussion is wide ranging, but the key takeaway is that capital is being herded into fewer and fewer asset classes. With such huge volumes of money at play, very crowded trades in assets like stocks and housing have resulted — bringing us back to familiar bubble territory in record time.

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  • Podcast

    Dan Ariely: Why Humans Are Hard-Wired to Make Irrational Decisions Around Money

    We're "Predictably Irrational"
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, July 7, 2013, 4:10 PM

    8

    Looking back at the carnage created by the bursting of the credit bubble, it’s natural to scratch your head and ask How did we ever let that happen? Behavioral economics exists to answer questions like this.

    Chris sat down with Dan Ariely, gallivanting behavioral-economics-researcher-extraordinaire, who is breathing new life into this previously obscure field of study. The resulting interview is full of fresh, non-intuitive insights and shines light on how the human brain is often hard-wired for irrational action when it comes to money.

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  • Blog
    Wikimedia commons

    Why the Bullwhip Effect All But Guarantees Another Poorly-Handled Liquidity Crisis

    Complex systems break under stress
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, July 1, 2013, 3:54 PM

    11

    One of my more memorable moments in business school came during an Operations class. The topic for the day was the Bullwhip Effect, a very real and vexing phenomenon that occurs in forecast-driven distribution systems.

    Essentially, when there are multiple parties in a distribution system, the imperfections in each player's forecasts (no forecast is consistently perfect) compound to wreak increasing havoc over time, even if demand stays relatively stable.

    Grasping how this works is somewhat non-intuitive…

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  • Blog
    © Darien Sánchez | Dreamstime.com

    This Gold Slam is a Massive Wealth Transfer from Our Pockets to the Banks

    It likely signals a big downdraft in the stock market, too
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, April 15, 2013, 7:55 PM

    79

    I am very disappointed by, but not surprised at, the latest transfer of wealth to the bankers from everyone else.  The most recent gold bear raid has vastly enriched the bullion bankers, once again, at the expense of everyone trying to protect their wealth from global central bank money printing.

    The central plank of Bernanke's magic recovery plan has been to get everybody back borrowing, spending, and "investing" in stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.  But not equally so, as he has been instrumental in distorting the landscape towards risk assets and away from safe harbors.

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  • Blog
    © Oleksii Sergieiev | Dreamstime.com

    Investors Beware: Market Risks Today Are Higher than Ever

    It's time to start worrying about the bond market
    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, March 21, 2013, 8:42 PM

    10

    After the shot across the bow in 2008, you might have expected regulators and market participants would use the experience to change for the better, to become more prudent, and to reduce the sorts of risky behaviors that almost crashed the entire system.

    Unfortunately, you'd be wrong.

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  • Podcast

    James Howard Kunstler: The Dangers of the Age of Delusion

    We're acting as if risks have no consequences
    by Adam Taggart

    Saturday, February 16, 2013, 5:53 PM

    49

    It’s characteristic of the time that we’re living in that there simply is no sense of consequence. And that’s exactly what you get when you have a Federal Reserve that’s out of control and a public that is filled with technological narcissistic visions of Santa Claus delivering rescue remedies on demand. And so there’s no general sense that when you do things, bad things can happen

    James Howard Kunstler is concerned. Sure, he still has the same issues with the West's highly energy-consuming suburban lifestyle that he famously brought to light in his books, The Long Emergency, the World Made by Hand series, and Too Much Magic. But beyond our decaying fundamentals, he's distressed by society's unwillingness to be honest with itself about the issue's it's facing.

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  • Blog

    Time to Choose

    A fundamentals-driven breakout seems imminent. But which dir
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, February 8, 2013, 11:44 AM

    52

    Whether you're aware of it or not, a great battle is being waged around us.

    It is a war of two opposing narratives: the future of our economy and our standard of living.

    The dominant story, championed by flotillas of press releases and parading talking heads, tells an inspiring tale of recovery and return to growth. 

    The other side, less visible but with a full armament of high-caliber data, tells a very different story. One of growing instability, downside risk, and inequality.

    As different as they are in substance, they both share one fundamental prediction and this is why you should care: This battle is about to break. And when it does, one side will turn out to be much more 'right' than the other. The time for action has arrived. To position yourself in the direction of the break you think is most likely to happen.

    It's time to choose a side.

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  • Daily Prep
    Credit: Jess Jiang and Lam Thuy Vo /NPR

    The Deadliest Jobs in America

    In one graphic
    by Jason Wiskerchen

    Thursday, January 24, 2013, 7:14 PM

    0

    When thinking about switching jobs or making the leap to the agrarian life, it is important to consider the physical, life threatening risks that come with the job. An infographic for the work-related, on-the-job deaths in 2011 for U.S. workers.

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/01/08/168897140/the-deadliest-jobs-in-america-in-one-graphic

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