Tag Archives: recession

  • Blog

    Dude, Where's My Cash?

    The growing desperation for income
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, February 17, 2019, 12:45 PM

    38

    A few months back, we issued a report, The Primacy Of Income, declaring the end of the era of capital gains.

    It's conclusion? Wealth accumulation over the next decade will be predominantly driven by income.

    Since issuing that report, developments have only served to underscore that prediction.

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  • Blog
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    Next Stop: Recession!

    We've arrived at the end of the line
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, February 8, 2019, 3:35 PM

    68

    We've enjoyed years of “recovery” since the Great Financial Crisis by literally papering over our problems with newly-printed money, instead of addressing their root causes.

    But we've now arrived at the awkward part of the story; when all of our prior mistakes finally catch up with us, and the plot heads in a much darker direction.

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  • Insider

    You vs The Recession

    To fail to plan is to plan to fail
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, February 8, 2019, 3:23 PM

    2

    Executive Summary

    • The limits to central bank money printing
    • The key indicators signalling recession
    • The growing fractures in the US economy & housing market, Europe, China & global trade
    • Stepping out of the recession's path

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Next Stop: Recession!, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Here in early 2019 the central banks have already caved to the market’s December 2018 weakness by printing more money, softening their plans for reducing their balance sheets and delaying the already timid schedule for introducing new interest rate hikes.  They are panicking early and often and seem inordinately afraid of any sort of downturn in stock prices, which is a concerning matter in itself.

    So our asterisk on this claim of ours that a recession has arrived is contained in the phrase “until and unless.”  Until and unless the central banks reignite their QE booster rockets, and do so in larger-than-ever quantities, and do so by giving money to the common people (not the banks), we think that the die is cast.  The recession has arrived. 

    Perhaps we should introduce a second idea which is contained in the phrase “they can until they can’t.”  The central banks managed to get a bounce in the equity markets through a combination of easing financial conditions, as they say (i.e. throw more money to the markets), and jawboning. 

    This was sufficient to get a relief bounce in equity and bond markets, but it did nothing to alter the many recession indicators we’ll track for you below.  The central banks can still move the markets with their words and deed.  Someday, perhaps soon, it will be shown they can’t.  They can move markets until they can’t.  Other such times of the central banks being overwhelmed by the movement of the market tides were in 2000 and 2008.

    What sorts of things could or will swamp the levitating effects of money printing?  One is a full-blown recession that ends up crushing the various crevices that central banks cannot directly control via printing such as real estate, consumer sentiment, and zombie companies’ ability to meet debt payments.

    Another is a deflationary event that sweeps across overleveraged debt markets and causes the very worst sort of damage to a debt-based money system built on leverage; a decline in the amount of credit outstanding from one period to the next.  In other words, another 2008-2009 type of event.

    The central banks can control things until they can’t.  That’s what history says.  Perhaps something more fundamental has changed since that allows them more complete control than ever, and perhaps we should always have a few of our chips placed on that possibility, but otherwise it’s not different this time and the central banks will once again discover that credit bubbles are really fun on the way up and utterly destructive on the way down.

    We think the next recession has arrived and that it’s going to be a real doozy in terms of creating financial market panic and losses.

    Specifically, you need to watch out for…

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  • Blog
    Getty images

    Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?

    Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions
    by charleshughsmith

    Monday, January 7, 2019, 9:50 AM

    16

    Are we in a repeat of the global financial meltdown and recession of 2008-09? The sharp drop in equities is certainly reminiscent of 2008. Indeed, the December decline is the worst in a decade. Or are we entering a different kind of recession, the equivalent of uncharted waters?

    And if we are entering a recession, what can central banks and governments do to ease the financial pain and damage? We can’t be sure of much, but we can be relatively confident central banks and states will respond to the cries to “do something.”  This poses two questions: what actions can central banks/states take, and will those policies work or will they backfire and make the recession worse?

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  • Insider

    The 8 Systemic Failure Points Of The Global Economy

    The macroeconomic fault lines to monitor closely
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, January 4, 2019, 7:06 PM

    22

    Executive Summary

    • The 8 Systemic Failure Points Of The Global Economy
    • Why The US May Weather The Next Collapse Better Than The Rest Of The World
    • The Fed's Long Game
    • Why Allowing Recession Now May Be A Policy Goal

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Is This Downturn a Repeat of 2008?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part 1, we concluded the current global downturn isn’t a repeat of the 2008 global crisis; rather, it has characteristics of three types of recession: liquidity/currency mismatches, the popping of credit-asset bubbles and a business-cycle exhaustion of credit impulse, what I call a credit-demand exhaustion.

    Let’s add a potential fourth recessionary impulse: energy. Right now the world’s oil importers are feasting on a 40% decline in the cost of oil, but as Chris and other analysts (Gail Tverberg, Richard Heinberg, and Nate Hagens) have explained, we’re approaching a point where the cost of extracting, processing and distributing oil is rising as the cheap oil has been consumed.  Producers need high prices or they will stop producing. But consumers, the vast majority of whom have stagnant incomes, can’t afford high energy costs.  Beyond a rather low price point, higher energy costs trigger a recession.

    This may not be driving the current downturn, but it looms large in the background.  I see the current collapse in oil prices as a head-fake: the sharp drop makes it appear oil is abundant, but this abundance is temporary, not permanent.

    Moreover, we aren’t privy to the opinions and machinations within the world’s major central banks, but it’s clear that the U.S. Federal Reserve is diverging from other central banks, which remain accommodative while the Fed raises rates and reduces its balance sheet by $30 billion a month.

    Of the four primary central banks—the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of China and the Fed—why is the Fed the one bank diverging from the other three, despite the appeals of the ECB to remain accommodative?

    I see several reasons, and the first is…

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  • Daily Prep
    youtube.com/watch?v=TOxKdtZwHMM

    How To Choose The Right Size Fiskars Axe

    Selecting the right tool for you
    by Jason Wiskerchen

    Wednesday, November 28, 2018, 4:01 AM

    2

    A quick and informative video on how to choose the right Fiskars splitting axe for your size and strength. Bigger is not always better.  Happy chopping.

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by frankdouwes, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 7/6 – Good News Friday: How To Rewild Yourself, Now Is The Time To Buy Gold

    by DailyDigest

    Friday, July 6, 2018, 3:25 PM

    2
    • My advice after a year without tech: rewild yourself
    • “Find your passion” is bad advice, say Yale and Stanford psychologists
    • Combining Antibiotis May Stave Off Future Superbugs
    • Precious Metals Price Outlook: Buy Now
    • As The Currency Reset Begins – Get Gold As It Is “Where The Whole World Is Heading”
    • The Strange Brain of the World’s Greatest Solo Climber
    • Why Millennials Should Invest In Agriculture
    • The Nature Conservancy: 2018 Photo Contest Winners

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: Hall Of Mirrors

    Our media is so distorted, where can you find truth?
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, May 4, 2018, 2:39 PM

    3

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and James Howard Kunstler discuss a whole slew of topics I don't have time to summarize, as our 2018 seminar starts in an hour.

    Enjoy!

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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  • Blog
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    Last Chance To Register For The Dangerous Markets Webinar

    The webinar takes place this Wed @ noon EST
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, September 11, 2017, 9:26 PM

    3

    If you have not yet registered for the Dangerous Markets webinar, which will take place at noon EST this Wednesday Sep 13th, time is quickly running out.

    Chris and I are extremely excited for this one, as the featured presenters — Grant Williams and Lance Roberts — are two of our favorite market analysts. Both have done truly excellent work recently in identifying the key indicators to track as the current Mother Of All Financial Bubbles tops out and prepares to burst. This will be a very data-rich discussion (in other words, you chart geeks are going to be in heaven).

    The price to participate in this webinar is $25, unless you are an enrolled member of PeakProsperity.com (i.e. paying subscriber with access to our 'Insider' content). In that case, it's FREE

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  • Blog
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    Van Halen, M&Ms, And The Next Market Downturn

    How watching the right indicators will avoid disaster
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, September 1, 2017, 11:28 PM

    13

    Believe it or not, the rock band Van Halen found a brilliant way to teach how having good indicators is key to achieving success.

    This is extremely true for the world of investing, where you're deploying capital based upon an expected future return. How do you determine when it's a good time to enter into an investment? Once in it, how do monitor the conditions supporting your rationale for holding it — are those changing? And if so, are they getting better or worse? When should you exit the position?

    For all of these questions, the better the indicators you use, the more accurate and informed your decision-making will be. And the better your returns as an investor will be.

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