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Tag Archives: recession

  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: Declining Energy Consumption Shows Recession Is At The Doorstep

    Transport fuel volumes & prices are falling fast
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, September 10, 2019, 8:39 AM

    37

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

    • Understanding The Importance Of Crack Spreads
    • Diesel Consumption Is Down 500,000 Barrels/Day Since January
    • The Shale Oil Reckoning Is Approaching
    • Key Slides From Art

    Petroleum expert Art Berman explains how crack spreads (the difference between what refiners pay for crude oil and the price they receive for their refined product) and oil demand volumes are indicating the global economy is slowing markedly. Economies need energy to function. Less energy consumed = lower growth and output.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

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  • Blog

    Mass Layoffs Are Back. Are You At Risk?

    Millions are going to lose their jobs in the coming recession. Will you?
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 30, 2019, 3:35 PM

    47

    Imagine the following scene playing out at work tomorrow: You arrive in the morning to find a note reading ‘HR wants to see you’. About what?, you wonder. Seeing your HR manager already in the conference room with the door closed, you fidget as you wait. A knot begins to form in your stomach that…

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  • Blog

    Bizarro World: The Herd Has Truly Gone Mad

    You're not crazy. The world we now live in is.
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, July 5, 2019, 4:02 PM

    28

    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one. ~ Charles Mackay (1841) Like me, you may often feel gobsmacked when looking at the world around you. How did things get so screwed up?…

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  • Blog
    Black Swan Event

    Waiting For The Black Swan

    War with Iran would be the beginning of the end
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 14, 2019, 2:38 PM

    31

    Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning  (6/13/19) in the Gulf of Oman, and if hostilities advance we could be facing a ‘black swan’ event. One that changes everything, and divides the world into ‘before’ and ‘after’ periods.

    A lot of us are waiting for ‘something’ to happen. We know that there are too many unsustainable trends and practices running and we fall into the “let’s just rip the Band-Aid off” camp.   Some, like myself, have lost faith in the political leadership and institutions and doubt they retain any capacity to attend to anything more than their own selfish interests, let alone manage the difficult tasks ahead rooted as they are in systems theory and managing complexity.

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  • Insider
    Downturn

    Why The Next U.S. Recession Will Be Exceptionally Painful

    Our enormous & unserviceable debts are going to crush us
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, June 3, 2019, 2:29 PM

    16

    We all know another recession is coming at some point.

    Economies are cyclical. Bust always follows boom in the same way the moon follows the sun.

    We very nearly had a recession in early 2016. I remain impressed how it was averted then by the application of tremendous amounts of newly-printed-from-thin-air money.  It took several trillions of dollars globally, but it worked (if we can call enabling the global economy to take on additional $trillions in debt that will never be repaid ‘working’)

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  • Blog

    At The End Of The Day, It’s All About Confidence

    And sentiment in the markets is now souring. Bigly.
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, May 10, 2019, 3:00 PM

    24

    We’ve been shining a bright light on the technical compression seen in the major stock indices, indicative that a major breakout move is coming — one we’ve argued is much more likely to happen to the downside.

    Well, with the recent fizzling of the principal storyline supporting the bullish narrative — an imminent trade deal with China  — our predicted downside breakdown finally occurred this week.

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  • Insider
    Wikimedia

    Why This Better Work

    Because if it doesn't, the aftermath looks terrifying
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, April 19, 2019, 4:20 PM

    15

    Executive Summary

    • China's critical role in keeping the party going (and why China is in a weaker position this time)
    • Despite current stock prices, the economic data is awful and fast getting worse
    • A recession is near-unavoidable at this point
    • What to do if you're not in the top 0.1%

    If you have not yet read Part 1: It's 2016 All Over Again. Or Is It?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    I know that it seems as if the US equity markets cannot ever go down and, truthfully, those indexes receive a ton of help from the Fed, the media, and from corporate buybacks. 

    The trouble, as always, when it begins will not be detected in the large, successful companies first.  Amazon and APPL will be among the last to go down.

    The trouble will start at the outside and work its way inwards.  This “outside in” phenomenon is pretty robust and it has not yet been repealed by the interventionistas at the Fed.

    In the US we might look to the small cap stocks to give way first, and I think they have.  It's in that universe where we will find an outsized majority of the zombie companies. 

    From a fundamental standpoint the small caps are a certified balance sheet mess.  Their net debt has been on a 40-degree, ruler-straight rise since 2010 even as their EBIDTA has risen at only a 10-degree trajectory.  The current gap is eye popping.

    This is a huge increase in debt, and it makes these companies especially vulnerable to any economic downturn or rise in interest rates.

    Accordingly, while all eyes are on the Nasdaq powering to a brand new all time high, the small caps in the Russell 2000 are definitely not making new highs and seem to be sneaking out the back door.

    If you are looking for a place to short US equities at the index level, the small caps are the …

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  • Podcast

    David Stockman: The Undrainable Swamp & The Inevitable Recession

    What the future of the post "Peak Trump" era holds
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, March 5, 2019, 8:10 PM

    5

    Love it or hate it, the potency of the Trump Administration is on the wane, soon to be stuck in the mire of the Swamp it has deepend instead of drained, while the economy falls into one hell of a recession — so claims former Regan-era Cabinet member and Congressman David Stockman.

    In his new book Peak Trump, Stockman notes how the wide divergence between Trump the campaigner and Trump the president appears to be proving to be his undoing.

    Rather than fight to dismantle the institutions he railed against as a candidate — most notably the Deep State and the Federal Reserve — Trump has embraced them.

    Now, when this latest asset bubble bursts (and Stockman believes the markets saw their peak back in Fall 2018), Trump will 'own' that. Having chosen to tie his administration's success to the rising price of the S&P 500 since taking office, he won't be able to foist the blame of a market crash on his predecessors.

    Similarly, the Deep State — especially the military industrial complex — is experiencing a bonanza under the Trump administration. As a result, the Swamp is deeper than it has ever been.

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  • Insider

    Off The Cuff: Bad Assumptions = Bad Outcomes

    Both the market & the Fed are making dangerous assumptions
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, February 28, 2019, 8:20 AM

    11

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

    • The Market Is Making Some Dangerous Assumptions
      • Right now it’s confident the Fed won’t hike this year. But will that be the case?
    • A Rate Surprise Would Shock The Markets
      • But the massive rebound seen since Jan supports hiking
    • Higher Rates Would Help The Fed Address The Coming Recession
      • Yet another reason rates can still go up
    • But There’s No Guarantee The Fed Can Ride To The Rescue
      • One day its stimulus will stop working, no matter how large

    There’s been a lot of releases from the Federal Reserve lately which Chris and Wolf deconstruct here. Wolf is of the mind that the markets are interpreting the Fed’s recent dovish moves as complete capitulation. He’s not so sure about that — he thinks the Fed will raise rates if given the opportunity. And the massive market recovery since the start of the year is giving it more and more validation for further hikes. So Wolf warns that the market could be in for a nasty surprise should the Fed hike later this year.

    But he also warns that the Fed is guilty of making some shaky assumptions of its own. Here he explains why its stimulus playbook may not work as expected when the next recession arrives:

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

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  • Insider

    Tuning Into Reality

    Here's the hard data that they *don't* want you to see
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, February 22, 2019, 5:48 PM

    8

    Executive Summary

    • The central banks are the key players at this stage. When they fail, the system will fail.
    • How today's Frankenmarkets are poised to collapse
    • Where we see the most convincing signs that the global economy is now falling into recession
    • Why we should expect bad times to lead to even worse decisions

    If you have not yet read Part 1: We're Living In 'The Groundhog Show', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The reason I still get angry and frustrated from time to time is because we’re just wasting very important time and resources that really ought to be dedicated to other pursuits.

    As I watch the US electorate recklessly lurch from one emotional outrage to another, I truly wonder if this is really just the emergent outcome of how events spread virally — or if it’s not something more intentional and sinister. Is this all a program designed to keep people revved up but pointed in the wrong directions?

    So if you find yourself increasingly feeling that things are really off track, that’s probably because you’ve also been paying close attention to the news. Whether by design or default, this doesn’t speak well to our ability to rally effectively to address the many massive predicaments society faces.

    As an ex-Facebook executive said about the nefarious aspects of the social media phenomenon he helped to create, “No civil discourse, no cooperation, misinformation, mistruth; you are being programmed.”

    That closely matches what I am seeing in the online world now. And it’s really unfortunate, because the stakes are so high. We really need to begin preparing for a very different future.   

    Which is hard, if not nearly impossible to do in a fractured and polarized world such as the one that’s been emerging over the past few years.

    The central banks are at the very center of it all.  The financial markets have taken on a new significance in the world and are now one of the prime, if not the prime, signaling mechanisms used by central planners to communicate with the world.

    So it's critical to understand that the most important factor in play is…

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