Tag Archives: Plan

  • Insider
    Kunal Mehta/Shutterstock

    Why Your Own Plan Better Be Different

    Because the cavalry isn't coming
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, January 21, 2014, 7:40 PM


    Executive Summary

    • Why the insolvency hole the U.S. is in may be much deeper than appreciated.
    • Current 'best case' assumptions show us doubling the size of our economy TWICE over the next 75 years. Why that's just not achievable.
    • Why the above assumptions get even worse when the energy story is taken into account.
    • Why action at the individual level is your best bet now.

    If you have not yet read Part I: "Endless Growth" Is the Plan & There's No Plan B available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    A Big Hole

    When the Treasury Department estimates that the U.S. has a ~$65 trillion NPV (Net Present Value) shortfall in its main accounts, it's saying that using its assumptions, the U.S. government would need to have $65 trillion today in an account, earning a stated rate of interest, in order to be solvent.

    Since the U.S. government don't have that have that kind of scratch, it's insolvent. 

    But the real picture is likely worse. The Fed calculates the NPV shortfall to be closer to $100 trillion. And if you believe Lawrence Kotlikoff's math, the figure is closer to $200 trillion. Either way $65 trillion, $100 trillion, or $200 trillion the sum cannot be paid.

    So it won't be.

    And the real trouble is that all of these numbers make the same implicit assumption: The future will more or less resemble the past. That is, some form of future growth exponential future growth of the economy is at the heart of every single calculation.

    But we might question that, because somewhere between here and there, economic growth will have to come to an end. Or at least a pronounced deceleration. Why? Quite simply, because the earth is finite.

    Now, we might comfort ourselves with the belief that our future date with hard limits is lifetimes away. But when we do, we shortchange ourselves (if we're wrong) and our progeny (if we're right). After all, the time to make an adjustment is when the resources and energy exist to make that change.

    And that's now. Or, really, decades ago…

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  • Blog

    Obama Punishes Responsible Parties

    by Chris Martenson

    Wednesday, February 18, 2009, 11:14 PM


    This is a headline that I have long been waiting to see, because without accountability at every level, a society is a weak shadow of what it can and should be.

    Unfortunately, the responsible parties I am referring to have never committed any crime, nor do they deserve to be punished.

    I am among them.    Perhaps you are as well.

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  • Blog

    Analyzing the Obama Plan

    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, January 6, 2009, 3:20 AM


    One of my chief concerns is that our leaders in DC do not really understand the nature of this crisis and are therefore going to either perform ineffective actions or, worse, harmful ones.

    I have been silently crossing my fingers beneath the table, hoping that Obama’s team would figure out that this crisis is unique and will require some non-status-quo solutions.

    Although I titled this "Analyzing the Obama Plan," this is neither a partisan nor political posting, and not even as much a critique of Obama himself as it is an examination of how the DC machinery currently operates.  No one person controls much more than a sliver of the overall process and results that emanate from DC.

    Now that there’s finally some meat on the plan which we can react to, let’s parse the numbers.

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  • Blog

    What’s the plan?

    by Chris Martenson

    Wednesday, December 31, 2008, 7:56 PM


    A Summary

    Many people have asked us, "Where are the large-scale solutions to all these problems you have described?" and  "What should we do as a nation to avoid the seemingly inevitable consequences of this fiat money system?"

    The lack of promotion of a large-scale solution set reflects a deliberate act of strategy rather than negligence. We believe we must reach a critical mass of individuals who have an understanding of the ideas presented in the Crash Course, before any national or global solutions will even be possible.

    Because we are still quite far from this tipping point of understanding, this website continues to focus primarily on educating people and helping them move from denial, to awareness, to understanding, and then towards actions rooted in a sense of personal responsibility.

    Once we have achieved a critical mass of people who understand the issues and have taken responsible actions as a result, solutions will find more fertile ground in which to take root.  Many people have already reached this place of understanding and assumed personal responsibility for their futures, but this site is organized around the principle that most have not.

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