Tag Archives: Peak Oil

Are humans wired to deal with the kinds of existential threats facing society today? This is not just an intellectually-interesting metaphysical question. The answer may well determine whether our species makes it to the next century or not. As PeakProsperity.com readers know well, humans’ relentless pursuit of ‘ever more’ growth is finally slamming into the…

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We happen to be alive at a time of peak abundance and technological miracles.  It’s never been easier or more comfortable to be a human.

On nearly every dimension — longevity, dependable access to food, quality of shelter, personal safety, leisure time, intellectual pursuits, technological advancements — no previous generation of humans have enjoyed the excesses and luxuries that we currently do.

What are you going to do with that good fortune while it lasts? Because it won’t for much longer.

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• Why companies flush with tax-cut cash are spending more on share buybacks than wage hikes
• Coffins destroyed in China in search of solution to burying 9 million bodies a year
• Trump Welcomes Immigrants, But Only If They Can Be Exploited
• Senators introduce bill to slap 'crushing' new sanctions on Russia
• Russian authorities prepare to soften plan to raise retirement age, sources say
• Job growth has never lasted this long before. Neither has weak wage growth.
• All Good Gadgets Go to Waste
• Drug giant Glaxo teams up with DNA testing company 23andMe
• Stonehenge mystery solved, says breakthrough scientific study
• Apple is worth $1 trillion. Here's what that much money could actually do.
• The Distribution of Pain, Redux
• NOAA plans ‘outside the box’ response to save a starving Puget Sound orca
• Meteor Explodes with 2.1 Kilotons of Force 25 Miles Above US Air Force Base in Greenland
• Climate Change and the Next US Revolution
• Record 'Red Tide' Of Toxic Algae Is Killing Wildlife In Florida
• Everyday Plastics Found To Emit Greenhouse Gas Pollution As They Degrade

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Hurricane Harvey took offline over 50% of Texas' refining capacity and shut down large percentage of the wells in the major Eagle Ford shale play.

This week, Hurricane Irma threatens to deliver a similar massive punch to the oil patch in the Gulf.

To discuss the ramifications from these storms on the oil markets, geoscientist and oil explorer Jeffrey Brown returns to the podcast. He calculates that Harvey alone will have long-lasting effects such as lingering supply shortages, but his greater focus is attuned to the growing validation of his Export Land Model, which calculates the rate at which oil-producing nations cease to become net exporters as their domestic consumption increases. Since it's formulation in 2005, more and more countries have switched from being net-exporters to net-importers, and the data in aggregates is strongly suggestive of a flat-lining in world oil production — the consequences of which are immense.

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Oil expert and geological consultant Art Berman returns to the podcast this week to address head-on the question: Was the Peak Oil theory wrong? With the world "awash" in sub-$50 per barrel oil, were all the warnings about persistently higher future oil prices just a bunch of alarmist hand-wringing?

In a word: No.

Art explains how the current glut of oil created by the US shale boom — along with high crude output by both OPEC and non-OPEC  producers — is a temporary anomaly. Fundamentally, we are not finding nearly as much oil as we need to continue our demand curve; and at the same time, we are extracting our reserves at a faster rate than ever. That's a mathematical recipe for a coming supply crunch. It's not a matter of if, but when.

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James Howard Kunstler returns to the podcast this week, observing that despite the baton being handed to a new American president, the massive predicaments we face as a society remain the same. And it seems the incoming administration is just as in denial of them as the old.

Kunstler adds fresh critique to his now decades-old warning that we are sleepwalking our way deep into the Long Emergency. The longer we delude ourselves and waste our energies in pursuit of reviving the failed "endless growth" model, the farther our journey back to a sustainable way of living will be when our current system collapses.

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Actuary Gail Tverberg returns to provide an update on where we are in the global energy story. Her outlook is not rosy: she doesn't not see a path for society to transition to an affordable, plentiful substitute to petroleum as a transportation fuel. The physics as well as the funding do not pencil out, at least with today's known technologies.

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Alice Friedemann is a transportation expert sounding the alarm on the unsustainable nature of our modern trucking system, which is critical for delivering goods where they need to be, when they need to be, in our just-in-time economy.

The world's trucking fleet is remarkably dependent on petroleum and, for a number of reasons she outlines in this interview, is not feasibly able to shift over to electricity or other alternative fuels.

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This week, PeakProsperity.com's own precious metals analyst, Dave Pare, sits down to the microphone.

Better known on the site as davefairtex, he joins Chris to discuss his current outlook for gold and silver, his approach to building market models, and how he balances fundamentals versus technical analysis in assembling his macro views.

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