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Tag Archives: Oil

  • Podcast

    Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil

    Estimates of recoverable oil are proving wildly wrong
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, January 16, 2019, 10:44 AM

    17

    Art Berman, geological consultant with over 37 years experience in petroleum exploration and production, returns to the podcast this week to debunk much of the hopium currently surrounding America’s shale oil output.

    Because the US is pinning huge hopes on its shale oil “revolution”, so much depends on that story being right. Here’s the narrative right now:

    • The US, is the new Saudi Arabia
    • It’s the swing producer when it comes to influencing the price of oil
    • The US will be able to increase oil production for decades to come
    • New technology is unlocking more oil shale supply all the time

    But what if there’s evidence that runs counter to all of that?

    We’re going to be taking a little victory lap on this week’s podcast because The Wall Street Journal has finally admitted that shale oil wells are not producing as much as the companies operating them touted they would produce — which is what we’ve been saying for years here at PeakProsperity.com, largely because we closely follow Art’s work.

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  • Insider

    A Bust For The Ages

    Much less oil than expected = much less Everything
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, January 11, 2019, 7:52 PM

    25

    Executive Summary

    • In short, we've been lied to about the production potential of America's shale wells
    • Huge decisions have been made based on the (faulty) assumptions we've swallowed
    • When it's finally clear than much less is going to be available (and at a higher price) all hell will break loose
    • The choices we make right now will determine how bad the reckoning will be

    If you have not yet read Part 1: The Shale Oil 'Revolution' Actually Reflects a Nation in Decline, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The reason I keep bringing us all back around to the energy situation is because it’s so critical to, well… Everything

    To make good decisions, you have to be armed with good information.  That’s not easy to find these days, especially in the US where we are saddled with a massive propaganda campaign when it comes to energy.

    It’s aim seems to be to convince everyone that there’s nothing to worry about. It's a near-constant barrage of these sorts of talking points and ideas:

    • The US is the new Saudi Arabia
    • The US is hitting new production records each month
    • The US is now a net exporter of oil for the first time in 75 years
    • Technology has improved so much that shale wells can now break even at $40/bbl oil prices.

    And so on.

    The problem with this sort of messaging is that the statements all need a couple of giant asterisks next to them, with some heavy explaining attached to add critical missing context.  They're misleading, at best. And collectively inaccurate.

    If you buy into these stories, you'll probably make the wrong choices.  When, not if, but when the US enters the next phase of the oil story, it will all be over.  There aren’t any new source rocks to go after. 

    I think we’re just a few years away from that decline phase, which means we don’t have a lot of time to prepare for what is certain to be an ugly period of adjustment. 

    As I wrote in Part I, the WSJ has finally managed to run some basic numbers and discover that the shale story has been over-hyped by the operators.  It’s quite a fascinating tale, one that we are quite familiar with at Peak Prosperity.

    These companies committed quite a few frauds along the way, each of which contributed to over-estimating how much oil (referred to in the industry as the “EUR”) that would come out of an average well, which include:

    • Claiming much lower than observed rates of decline (5% vs ~15%)
    • Using a tiny cluster of highly prolific wells to represent the entire play
    • Excluding really crappy wells entirely from the calculations for the “average”
    • Using ridiculously long estimates of well life (50 years when there are already wells tapped out after 10 years in some cases)

    These are way beyond simple analytical differences and amount to overt fraud.  Okay, fine, caveat emptor to the investors, right?

    Well, the problem here is that the US generally, and major corporations as well as individuals specifically, have bought the story hook-line and sinker and made big, long-term decisions based on these frauds.  Ford dropped selling sedans in North America to focus on selling trucks and SUVs, the US government rolled back plans on fuel standards, and individuals bought pickup trucks and/or SUVs under the theory that gasoline would always be cheap.

    At a minimum, you should not be invested in….

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  • Blog
    Shutterstock

    The Shale Oil Revolution Actually Reflects a Nation in Decline

    Faster consumption + no strategy = diminished prospects
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, January 11, 2019, 4:48 PM

    11

    For several decades now the US has been getting its energy policy very badly wrong.  It's so short-sighted, and rely so heavily on techno-optimism, that it barely deserves to be called a 'policy' at all. 

    Which is why we predict that in the not-too-distant future, this failure to plan will attack like a hungry wolfpack to bite down hard on the US economy’s hamstrings and drag it to the ground.

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  • Blog
    Getty images

    Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?

    Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions
    by charleshughsmith

    Monday, January 7, 2019, 9:50 AM

    16

    Are we in a repeat of the global financial meltdown and recession of 2008-09? The sharp drop in equities is certainly reminiscent of 2008. Indeed, the December decline is the worst in a decade. Or are we entering a different kind of recession, the equivalent of uncharted waters?

    And if we are entering a recession, what can central banks and governments do to ease the financial pain and damage? We can’t be sure of much, but we can be relatively confident central banks and states will respond to the cries to “do something.”  This poses two questions: what actions can central banks/states take, and will those policies work or will they backfire and make the recession worse?

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by kishjar?, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 10/13 – Trapped By The “Walmart Of Heroin,” Best Government Money Can Buy

    by DailyDigest

    Saturday, October 13, 2018, 4:39 PM

    0
    • You might not be anonymous, thanks to genealogy databases
    • Could Donald Trump be the last world emperor?
    • Jim Rogers: Worst Crisis In My Lifetime
    • Best Government Money Can Buy
    • Watch Boston Dynamics' Humanoid Robot Do Parkour
    • After Soyuz Failure, Space Is Now Weirdly Inaccessible to Astronauts
    • Trapped by the ‘Walmart of Heroin’
    • Another NASA space telescope just went into safe mode
    • Ebola 2018 Update: Still Dicking Around With Dynamite
    • USDA Surprises with Crop Yield Cut
    • High CO2 levels cause plants to thicken their leaves, could worsen climate change effects 
    • #ICYMI: Climate change could destroy us all, but who cares?! 
    • Victims of Hurricane Michael voted for climate deniers

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by sgryip, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 8/5 – Record “Red Tide” Killing Wildlife In Florida, The Distribution Of Pain

    by DailyDigest

    Sunday, August 5, 2018, 4:12 PM

    4
    • Why companies flush with tax-cut cash are spending more on share buybacks than wage hikes
    • Coffins destroyed in China in search of solution to burying 9 million bodies a year
    • Trump Welcomes Immigrants, But Only If They Can Be Exploited
    • Senators introduce bill to slap 'crushing' new sanctions on Russia
    • Russian authorities prepare to soften plan to raise retirement age, sources say
    • Job growth has never lasted this long before. Neither has weak wage growth.
    • All Good Gadgets Go to Waste
    • Drug giant Glaxo teams up with DNA testing company 23andMe
    • Stonehenge mystery solved, says breakthrough scientific study
    • Apple is worth $1 trillion. Here's what that much money could actually do.
    • The Distribution of Pain, Redux
    • NOAA plans ‘outside the box’ response to save a starving Puget Sound orca
    • Meteor Explodes with 2.1 Kilotons of Force 25 Miles Above US Air Force Base in Greenland
    • Climate Change and the Next US Revolution
    • Record 'Red Tide' Of Toxic Algae Is Killing Wildlife In Florida
    • Everyday Plastics Found To Emit Greenhouse Gas Pollution As They Degrade

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  • Insider

    The Rich Are Planning For Catastrophe

    What do they know that you don't?
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, July 20, 2018, 7:10 PM

    73

    Executive Summary

    • Why the wealthy are plotting to leave us behind
    • The "madness of crowds" virtually ensures a period of social chaos when the system breaks
    • The media is, and will continue to be, used to manipulate the masses
    • The growing risk of a new kind of civil war in America
    • Preparing today will give you vastly more options tomorrow

    If you have not yet read Part 1: America The Insolvent available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The Wealthy Are Plotting To Leave Us Behind

    In the absence of an official plan, you'd better have your own — something the extremely wealthy are already working on for themselves.

    As the co-founders of Peak Prosperity, Adam and I happen to know and/or interact with quite a few wealthy people who are deeply concerned about the future and taking steps to assure their survival in it.  These people have access to the very best information; they know the system better than your average citizen.  They know what the weak points are and what could go wrong.

    From our observations, it’s safe to say that the more insider-experience an individual has, the greater their concern.

    The least-concerned people are those without much knowledge of the system (i.e., most "regular" folks). Or a weak sense of curiosity. Or, most damagingly, a propensity to get their news from the mainstream media.  Let’s just say that the information available to the “retail crowd” is either incomplete or misleading (and quite often intentionally so).

    What I mean to say more directly is: if you're not already a billionaire and getting access to the very best and most accurate information, you’d do well to….

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  • Daily Digest
    Image by Mohmed Althani, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 4/16 -The Doomsday Maps Of The World, Miami Racing Against Time

    by DailyDigest

    Monday, April 16, 2018, 3:13 PM

    3
    • Here's How Facebook Tracks You When You're Not On Facebook
    • The Shocking Doomsday Maps Of The World And The Billionaire Escape Plans
    • Inside The Secret World Of Russia's Cold War Mapmakers
    • Cops Around the Country Can Now Unlock iPhones, Records Show
    • IEA: U.S.-China Trade Row Could Dampen Oil Demand Growth
    • The world faces a future of floods, famine, and extreme heat — here’s what it’ll take to bounce back
    • Miami is racing against time to keep up with sea-level rise
    • Gulf Stream current at its weakest in 1,600 years, studies show 
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  • Daily Digest
    Image by push1, Flickr Creative Commons

    Daily Digest 2/6 – Shale Reality Check, Permafrost Home To Large Mercury Reserves

    by DailyDigest

    Tuesday, February 6, 2018, 5:41 PM

    1
    • Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Blue Monday – How Are the Mighty Mispricings of Risk Fallen 
    • A Timeline Of The FBI And DOJ's Involvement In Hillary's Emails And The Trump Dossier
    • How much are illegal activities behind the demand for crypto-currency?
    • The Market Meltdown Is an Ominous Sign
    • FEMA Contract Called for 30 Million Meals for Puerto Ricans. 50,000 Were Delivered.
    • Shale Reality Check
    • Oil Prices Ravaged By Financial Turmoil 
    • Arctic permafrost home to large mercury reserves, study finds 

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