Investing in precious metals 101

Tag Archives: Oil

  • Blog
    Black Swan Event

    Waiting For The Black Swan

    War with Iran would be the beginning of the end
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, June 14, 2019, 2:38 PM

    29

    Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning  (6/13/19) in the Gulf of Oman, and if hostilities advance we could be facing a ‘black swan’ event. One that changes everything, and divides the world into ‘before’ and ‘after’ periods.

    A lot of us are waiting for ‘something’ to happen. We know that there are too many unsustainable trends and practices running and we fall into the “let’s just rip the Band-Aid off” camp.   Some, like myself, have lost faith in the political leadership and institutions and doubt they retain any capacity to attend to anything more than their own selfish interests, let alone manage the difficult tasks ahead rooted as they are in systems theory and managing complexity.

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  • Blog

    These Are The ‘Good Old Days’

    At tipping points like now, the steps we take in the present determine our future
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, May 31, 2019, 6:07 PM

    50

    We happen to be alive at a time of peak abundance and technological miracles.  It’s never been easier or more comfortable to be a human.

    On nearly every dimension — longevity, dependable access to food, quality of shelter, personal safety, leisure time, intellectual pursuits, technological advancements — no previous generation of humans have enjoyed the excesses and luxuries that we currently do.

    What are you going to do with that good fortune while it lasts? Because it won’t for much longer.

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  • Insider
    Shutterstock

    Off The Cuff: Twilight In The Desert Has Begun

    An oil engineer's dark take on the Ghawar oil field decline
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, April 9, 2019, 4:45 PM

    6

    In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

    • Is the Ghawar oil field truly in decline?
    • If so, what are the implications?
    • What other important revelations does the Saudi Aramco prospectus contain?

    In the light of the huge surprise contained in the recent Saudi Aramco prospectus, that Saudi Arabia's massive Ghawar “crown jewel” conventional oil field is in decline (currently at a maximum output of 3.8 million barrels per day vs the previous estimate of 5.8mbd), we rushed to interview seasoned petroleum geologist Art Berman on the news.

    Is he as concerned about the revelation as we are?

    Yes. In fact, he suspects the 3.8mbd is likely still an overly-exagerrated figure, and that the field's true max output is even lower.

    In his estimation, the fiction the world has been telling itself — that Peak Oil isn't real — is about to be rudely disproven. The recent (and much more expensive) shale bonanza will prove to be a short-lived distraction, and we'll soon be face-to-face with the predicament of how to power the global economy with less net energy.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

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  • Insider

    Huge News: The Ghawar Is In Decline!

    The world's most productive oil field just shocked analysts
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, April 2, 2019, 4:39 PM

    43

    Really big news hit this morning. And today is April 2nd, so we can't dismiss this as an April-fools prank.

    I explain it all with context below. But the summary is this: we're well on track for the oil supply shortage(s) and price spike(s) that I’ve been writing about for the past few years. It will all hit sometime between now and 2022 is my latest projected timeframe.

    This will be a before-and-after story. Before the coming price spikes, so much seemed possible. After they hit, so much less will be. The transition from Easy to Hard is now fully underwaym and you need to be eyes wide open about the data.

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  • Blog
    Green New Deal

    Deconstructing The Green New Deal

    Despite serious flaws, it sparks a needed conversation
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, March 12, 2019, 7:28 AM

    101

    The Green New Deal (GND) is important as a starting point to have a long, long overdue conversation about energy. Specifically: How are we going to eventually transition away from fossil fuels?

    As such, the proposal — while (very) far from perfect — should not be ignored and deserves our attention. 

    It's also important because it represents the sorts of zig-zags our social and political paths are inceasingly likely to take in the coming future as we're forced to face our looming economic, ecological and energy-related predicaments.

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  • Podcast

    Bethany McLean: Saudi America

    The truth about fracking & how it's changing the world
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, March 1, 2019, 1:37 PM

    6

    For years now we've been covering the false promise of the American shale oil “miracle”.

    Yes, it has extracted a lot more oil out of American soil that most thought possible. But at an economic loss. And at great environmental cost.

    If the shale drilling companies can't make any profit, either when oil prices are high or low — why are we still pursuing shale deposits so aggressively?

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  • Podcast

    Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil

    Estimates of recoverable oil are proving wildly wrong
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, January 16, 2019, 10:44 AM

    17

    Art Berman, geological consultant with over 37 years experience in petroleum exploration and production, returns to the podcast this week to debunk much of the hopium currently surrounding America’s shale oil output.

    Because the US is pinning huge hopes on its shale oil “revolution”, so much depends on that story being right. Here’s the narrative right now:

    • The US, is the new Saudi Arabia
    • It’s the swing producer when it comes to influencing the price of oil
    • The US will be able to increase oil production for decades to come
    • New technology is unlocking more oil shale supply all the time

    But what if there’s evidence that runs counter to all of that?

    We’re going to be taking a little victory lap on this week’s podcast because The Wall Street Journal has finally admitted that shale oil wells are not producing as much as the companies operating them touted they would produce — which is what we’ve been saying for years here at PeakProsperity.com, largely because we closely follow Art’s work.

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  • Insider

    A Bust For The Ages

    Much less oil than expected = much less Everything
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, January 11, 2019, 7:52 PM

    25

    Executive Summary

    • In short, we've been lied to about the production potential of America's shale wells
    • Huge decisions have been made based on the (faulty) assumptions we've swallowed
    • When it's finally clear than much less is going to be available (and at a higher price) all hell will break loose
    • The choices we make right now will determine how bad the reckoning will be

    If you have not yet read Part 1: The Shale Oil 'Revolution' Actually Reflects a Nation in Decline, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The reason I keep bringing us all back around to the energy situation is because it’s so critical to, well… Everything

    To make good decisions, you have to be armed with good information.  That’s not easy to find these days, especially in the US where we are saddled with a massive propaganda campaign when it comes to energy.

    It’s aim seems to be to convince everyone that there’s nothing to worry about. It's a near-constant barrage of these sorts of talking points and ideas:

    • The US is the new Saudi Arabia
    • The US is hitting new production records each month
    • The US is now a net exporter of oil for the first time in 75 years
    • Technology has improved so much that shale wells can now break even at $40/bbl oil prices.

    And so on.

    The problem with this sort of messaging is that the statements all need a couple of giant asterisks next to them, with some heavy explaining attached to add critical missing context.  They're misleading, at best. And collectively inaccurate.

    If you buy into these stories, you'll probably make the wrong choices.  When, not if, but when the US enters the next phase of the oil story, it will all be over.  There aren’t any new source rocks to go after. 

    I think we’re just a few years away from that decline phase, which means we don’t have a lot of time to prepare for what is certain to be an ugly period of adjustment. 

    As I wrote in Part I, the WSJ has finally managed to run some basic numbers and discover that the shale story has been over-hyped by the operators.  It’s quite a fascinating tale, one that we are quite familiar with at Peak Prosperity.

    These companies committed quite a few frauds along the way, each of which contributed to over-estimating how much oil (referred to in the industry as the “EUR”) that would come out of an average well, which include:

    • Claiming much lower than observed rates of decline (5% vs ~15%)
    • Using a tiny cluster of highly prolific wells to represent the entire play
    • Excluding really crappy wells entirely from the calculations for the “average”
    • Using ridiculously long estimates of well life (50 years when there are already wells tapped out after 10 years in some cases)

    These are way beyond simple analytical differences and amount to overt fraud.  Okay, fine, caveat emptor to the investors, right?

    Well, the problem here is that the US generally, and major corporations as well as individuals specifically, have bought the story hook-line and sinker and made big, long-term decisions based on these frauds.  Ford dropped selling sedans in North America to focus on selling trucks and SUVs, the US government rolled back plans on fuel standards, and individuals bought pickup trucks and/or SUVs under the theory that gasoline would always be cheap.

    At a minimum, you should not be invested in….

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  • Blog
    Shutterstock

    The Shale Oil Revolution Actually Reflects a Nation in Decline

    Faster consumption + no strategy = diminished prospects
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, January 11, 2019, 4:48 PM

    11

    For several decades now the US has been getting its energy policy very badly wrong.  It's so short-sighted, and rely so heavily on techno-optimism, that it barely deserves to be called a 'policy' at all. 

    Which is why we predict that in the not-too-distant future, this failure to plan will attack like a hungry wolfpack to bite down hard on the US economy’s hamstrings and drag it to the ground.

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  • Blog
    Getty images

    Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?

    Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions
    by charleshughsmith

    Monday, January 7, 2019, 9:50 AM

    16

    Are we in a repeat of the global financial meltdown and recession of 2008-09? The sharp drop in equities is certainly reminiscent of 2008. Indeed, the December decline is the worst in a decade. Or are we entering a different kind of recession, the equivalent of uncharted waters?

    And if we are entering a recession, what can central banks and governments do to ease the financial pain and damage? We can’t be sure of much, but we can be relatively confident central banks and states will respond to the cries to “do something.”  This poses two questions: what actions can central banks/states take, and will those policies work or will they backfire and make the recession worse?

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