Executive Summary

• Urgency is needed, as society’s alarm bells aren’t working
• The most important charts of all
• Recent learnings on resilience relocation
• When a culture becomes desperate, it reacts desperately. No one wins.

If you have not yet read Part 1: Getting Real About Green Energy, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What seems to be true is that humanity is in the early innings of a great transition.  Losing access to abundant energy will change more things that you or I can appreciate at this time.

The future is barreling towards us at a furious pace.  And the pace of that change is accelerating.

It’s time to freak out a bit.  To get serious about protecting ourselves.  To make different decisions and reorganize our priorities.

If you understand energy and its relationship to the economy the way I do, you’d share my urgency to create community and develop a resilient homestead.  My goal here is to nudge you towards action.

Here’s what has me so concerned right now. These charts clearly show the… (Enroll now to continue reading)

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In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

• Understanding The Importance Of Crack Spreads
• Diesel Consumption Is Down 500,000 Barrels/Day Since January
• The Shale Oil Reckoning Is Approaching
• Key Slides From Art

Petroleum expert Art Berman explains how crack spreads (the difference between what refiners pay for crude oil and the price they receive for their refined product) and oil demand volumes are indicating the global economy is slowing markedly. Economies need energy to function. Less energy consumed = lower growth and output.

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In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

• Shale Oil’s Chronic Profit Drought
  • Nearly all companies are cash-flow negative
• Why Drilling US Oil Isn’t Profitable
  • Oil service costs eat your lunch
• Why Drillers Can’t Stop Drilling
  • They need cash to service their debts
• Shale Oil Is A Business Model With No Future
  • When credit tightens, the whole industry will implode

Right now, the US is still producing a record amount of oil, due mostly to shale fields developed within the past decade. But that bonanza won’t last — it can’t last — explains petroleum geologist Art Berman. Nearly every shale driller has been and will remain to be unprofitable. The nature of shale wells and the nature of oil service costs will ensure that.

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Maybe with all the monetary stimulus and other catalysts, oil and gold were just itching for a reason to go higher, but on Thursday morning oil convincingly launched higher on news that Iran shot down a US drone.

Gold, which had rather mysteriously spiked earlier on Wednesday night stayed elevated, even as copper, platinum and palladium all tumbled back lower throughout the day.

The drone shot down was a very advanced, and large version equipped presumably with the latest and most advanced spying and detection hardware. This action moves us a few notches closer to an actual shooting war with Iran.

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In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

• Is the Ghawar oil field truly in decline?
• If so, what are the implications?
• What other important revelations does the Saudi Aramco prospectus contain?

In the light of the huge surprise contained in the recent Saudi Aramco prospectus, that Saudi Arabia's massive Ghawar “crown jewel” conventional oil field is in decline (currently at a maximum output of 3.8 million barrels per day vs the previous estimate of 5.8mbd), we rushed to interview seasoned petroleum geologist Art Berman on the news.

Is he as concerned about the revelation as we are?

Yes. In fact, he suspects the 3.8mbd is likely still an overly-exagerrated figure, and that the field's true max output is even lower.

In his estimation, the fiction the world has been telling itself — that Peak Oil isn't real — is about to be rudely disproven. The recent (and much more expensive) shale bonanza will prove to be a short-lived distraction, and we'll soon be face-to-face with the predicament of how to power the global economy with less net energy.

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Really big news hit this morning. And today is April 2nd, so we can't dismiss this as an April-fools prank.

I explain it all with context below. But the summary is this: we're well on track for the oil supply shortage(s) and price spike(s) that I’ve been writing about for the past few years. It will all hit sometime between now and 2022 is my latest projected timeframe.

This will be a before-and-after story. Before the coming price spikes, so much seemed possible. After they hit, so much less will be. The transition from Easy to Hard is now fully underwaym and you need to be eyes wide open about the data.

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