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Tag Archives: mortgages

  • Insider
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    How A Major Housing Correction Can Happen Over The Next 1.5 Years

    Own a home? This is a must-read.
    by charleshughsmith

    Friday, October 9, 2015, 9:11 PM

    16

    Executive Summary

    • The Fed Won't Be Able To Soak Up Bad Mortgages Like It Once Did
    • Chinese Capital Will Dry Up After Capital Controls Are Imposed
    • The weakening petro-dollar will weaken demand for high-end housing
    • The inevitable symmetry of bubbles will force a price mean-reversion

    If you have not yet read Part 1: How Much Longer Can Our Unaffordable Housing Prices Last? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    In Part 1, we looked at factors that limit further home price appreciation—mortgage rates that can’t go much lower and stagnant household incomes—and factors that could continue to push prices higher in islands of strong job growth and global demand.

    Here in Part II, we’ll look at several dynamics that could deflate the current Housing Bubble #2, even in areas currently experiencing high demand for housing such as New York City and San Francisco.

    The Fed Will Encounter Political Headwinds in Pushing Money to the Wealthy

    Setting aside cash buyers from overseas, a major factor in the inflation of Housing Bubble #2 was the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs that expanded the pool of money available to the already-wealthy while prompting very little “trickling down” of this new money to the bottom 90% of households.

    The one Fed policy that aided the bottom 90% was buying $1.75 trillion of home mortgages. This unprecedented buying spree helped push mortgage rates down to equally unprecedented lows.

     

    But as this chart shows, the Fed is…

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  • Blog
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    Have We Reached Peak Wall Street?

    An argument its dominance is in decline
    by charleshughsmith

    Monday, March 31, 2014, 11:14 PM

    18

    Though the mainstream financial media and the blogosphere differ radically on their forecasts—the MFM sees near-zero systemic risk while the alternative media sees a critical confluence of it—they agree on one thing: the Federal Reserve and the “too big to fail” (TBTF) Wall Street banks have their hands on the political and financial tiller of the nation, and nothing will dislodge their dominance.

    But what id Wall Street’s power has peaked and is about to be challenged by forces that it has never faced before? Put another way,what if the power of Wall Street has reached a systemic extreme where a decline or reversal is inevitable?

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  • Blog
    Oleksii Sergieiev | Dreamstime.com

    Why 2014 Is Beginning to Look A Lot Like 2008

    The similarities are stacking up
    by charleshughsmith

    Wednesday, March 12, 2014, 4:06 PM

    17

    Does anything about 2014 remind you of 2008? 

    The long lists of visible stress in the global financial system and the almost laughably hollow assurances that there are no bubbles, everything is under control, etc. etc. etc.  certainly remind me of the late-2007-early 2008 period when the subprime mortgage meltdown was already visible and officialdom from Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan on down were mounting the bully pulpit at every opportunity to declare that there was no bubble in housing and the system was easily able to handle little things like default

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  • Blog
    © Oleksii Sergieiev | Dreamstime.com

    Everything Is Being Sold

    Market crash warning
    by Chris Martenson

    Thursday, June 20, 2013, 7:55 PM

    44

    Global financial markets are now in a very perilous state, and there is a much higher than normal chance of a crash. Bernanke's recent statement revealed just how large a role speculation had played in the prices of nearly everything, and now there is a mad dash for cash taking place all over the world.

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest 1/21 – States Look for Ways to Declare Bankruptcy, Irish Government Collapses, Mortgage Losses

    by DailyDigest

    Friday, January 21, 2011, 4:00 PM

    0
    • NYT Reports States Looking For Ways To File Bankruptcy
    • Irish Government Collapses, Six Cabinet Members Resign, Election March 11
    • The Meredith Whitney Effect In One Big, Beautiful Chart
    • Plans Being Drawn Up To Let States Declare Bankruptcy
    • Bank Of America Posts Billion-Dollar Loss Tied To Mortgages
    • Schlumberger 4Q Profit Rises 31% On Stronger Demand
    • U.S. Firms Seek To Pick Up Pace In China

    Crash Course DVDOwn the Crash Course Special Edition Set with Presenter’s Pack (NTSC or PAL)

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  • Blog

    Federal Reserve Buys More Than 100% of Mortgages Issued in 2009

    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, September 28, 2009, 3:13 PM

    0

    What follows is a snippet from the most recent Martenson Report (Housing and Wealth: Part II).


    This is important information.  What I’ve found and present below is that the Federal Reserve is not just supporting the housing market, it is the housing market.

    Just as important as a person’s desire to buy a home is their ability to gain access to mortgage funding.

    The mortgage market is a gigantic beast with many moving parts, but it is pretty easy to understand from a high level.

    The process works like this:  A homeowner secures a mortgage from a bank or mortgage company.  Then the mortgage is sold off to another company, with the cash generated by that sale now available to lend to other potential homeowners.  Ultimately the mortgage may pass through several sets of hands but ultimately it lands with a terminal holder.

    In that chain, the mortgage might get sold off several times, or perhaps sliced and diced by Wall Street wizards, but all that matters is that some company (with cash) is there at the end to buy the mortgage to keep the whole chain moving along.

    Lately, the “terminal buyers” in that chain have increasingly ended up being the federal government (through the GSEs) and the Federal Reserve.

    And not just by a little bit, but by a lot.

    Here are the numbers:

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  • Blog

    Housing and Wealth

    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, September 22, 2009, 3:22 PM

    0

    A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.

    LinkHousing and Wealth

    There are several economic issues and data sets that we are tracking closely here on a daily and weekly basis because they have the best opportunity to help us illuminate the path for a few more feet.

    One has been the flow of money into and out of the US.  There we’ll continue to track and explain the mechanisms while keeping a firm eye on the dollar and interest rate (via Treasuries) pair.

    Another has been the various government and Federal Reserve programs to inject money into the economy and financial institutions, respectively, as these maneuvers have distortive effects on the rest of the data. 

    But the main driver from a consumer standpoint has been housing.  Every so often we dive into that area pretty deeply and this week we head into housing and where we currently stand with respect to prices, inventory, liquidity, and demand.  

    This is part one of a two part report.

    (Comments turned off here, leave them in the posting further down the main page…)

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – August 19

    by Davos

    Wednesday, August 19, 2009, 3:04 PM

    0
    • Why is US Government Subsidizing Chinese PPIP ?
    • The Drawing Board – Three Tier Proposal (Video on page)
    • $3 Trillion in U.S. Mortgages Underwater and Risking Foreclosure.
    • Frank Veneroso on Mortgage Armageddon
    • Why Budget Deficits Matter: Government at a $1.26 Trillion Budget Deficit for the 2009 Fiscal Year
    • Is This the Start of the Big One?
    • American’s are Saving. Really? (Chart)
    • Mortgage delinquency rate hits all time high in 2Q
    • Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.–Mark Twain
    • Barney Frank Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee (Video, Repost)
    • Episode 17 (2 Beers With Steve) – Unsustainable Trends Eventually End with Nathan Martin (Repost)

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – August 12

    by Davos

    Wednesday, August 12, 2009, 2:46 PM

    0
    • Casey Research Mentions Chris Martenson (H/T CapeSurvivor)
    • Deja vu? (Chart)
    • Watchdog Says Bad Assets Still Threaten Banks
    • Path to Freedom – Two Beers With Steve Podcast
    • Unemployment Benefits – More Math That Just Doesn’t Work/ More Data Hiding?
    • “Broke” Reviewed by Glenn Erickson
    • Employment/Population Rate x Number of Hours Worked/Week (Chart)
    • Wholesale Inventories: Marijuana Plants
    • Zillow: Underwater Mortgages May Reach 30%
    • Housing Mess in Not Over Yet – Bloomberg (Video on page)

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  • Blog

    Daily Digest – July 22

    by Davos

    Wednesday, July 22, 2009, 3:00 PM

    0
    • BIS, The Central Bank of all Central Bankers: The Central Bank WAS Warned in 2003 (Repost)
    • Roach: The Financial Crisis Isn’t Over (Video on page)
    • Broke (Video Outtake)
    • Earnings results at Swedish banks show large writedowns in Baltics
    • Michael Covel on IndyMac (Video)
    • CIT: More than $1.5 billion in losses, No FDIC Guaranteed Debt
    • CNBC Attempts Assasination on Barofsky (Video)
    • California Comes to Cowardly Compromise
    • Commercial mortgages, mortgage re-sets to trigger NEXT U.S.down-leg
    • Rep. Cliff Stearns not heart GS

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